2013/2014年东亚冬季风异常偏弱的可能成因

2005年之后东亚冬季风连续7年强度偏强,而2013/2014年冬季,东亚冬季风强度突然由强转弱,原因可能与前期秋季北极海冰的异常有关,受2013年秋季北极海冰异常影响,冬季西伯利亚高压偏弱,进而导致东亚冬季风偏弱以及我国气温偏高。季内,东亚冬季风强度变化显著,前冬偏弱,后冬偏强。受冬季风季节内变化影响,我国前冬暖、后冬冷;此外,前冬暖、后冬冷还受到北太平洋上空阻塞高压的异常活动影响,北太平洋地区的阻塞高压加强西移至日界线以西,导致东亚地区经向型环流加强,改变了前冬以纬向型为主的环流,前冬高纬地区堆积的冷空气向东亚地区侵袭。加之,前冬我国气温偏高,导致后冬我国多地降温显著,气温由偏高转偏低。而阻塞高压的西移可能与平流层环流的异常活动有关。     

宁夏冬季极端低温事件特征及其与秋季北极海冰异常的联系

利用1961-2018年我国宁夏全区平均逐日观测最高和最低气温数据,英国哈德莱(Hadley)中心的逐月海冰密集度资料,美国国家环境预报中心/国家大气研究中心(NCEP/NCAR)的逐月大气再分析资料以及中国气象局国家气候中心的逐月东亚冬季风指数和西伯利亚高压指数系统地研究了宁夏冬季极端低温事件的特征及其与北极关键影响区域海冰异常的联系。结果表明:20世纪60年代以来,宁夏冬季冷日与冷夜频次呈现明显的减少趋势,极端低温事件强度总体趋于减弱,日极端低温升高趋势较为明显。秋季北极海冰异常与之后冬季海冰异常显著相关,前秋海冰异常通过季节持续性实现对后期冬季大气环流的影响,进而影响冬季气温。前期秋季拉普捷夫海-东西伯利亚海海冰密集度偏小、格陵兰海海冰密度偏大时,冬季西伯利亚高压指数和冬季风指数偏强,有利于宁夏日极端低温事件频次偏多;500 hPa高度场上,极地-欧亚大陆-阿留申地区有一个显著的"L"型的位相波列形态,使得北极与欧亚大陆中高纬地区的位势高度差减弱,中高纬地区西风气流偏弱,减弱的西风使得经向活动加强,利于北极的冷空气向低纬地区侵袭;在海平面气压场上,西伯利亚地区气压偏高,冷空气由极地挤压至中高纬度地区,造成冷空气南下,有利于宁夏冬季发生极端低温事件。     

2016/2017年冬季北半球大气环流及对我国冬季气温的影响

2016/2017年冬季(2016年12月至2017年2月),东亚冬季风强度较常年同期异常偏弱,西伯利亚高压偏弱。北极涛动(AO)在冬季以正位相为主。冬季北半球500 hPa高度距平场上,亚洲中高纬地区以纬向环流为主,我国为异常正高度距平控制。受其影响,我国各地气温普遍较常年同期偏高,全国平均气温为-1.5℃,较常年同期(-3.4℃)偏高1.9℃,为1961年以来最暖的冬季。季内各月冬季风指数和西伯利亚高压均偏弱,相应我国气温各月均偏高。冬季风的异常偏弱与夏季北极地区大气环流异常状态有关。2016年夏季北极大气环流的热力和动力状态影响了秋季北极海冰偏少的滞后影响效果,不利于冬季风的偏强。     

2014/2015年东亚冬季风活动特征及其可能成因分析

2014/2015年东亚冬季风强度较常年同期略偏弱,季内冬季风强弱转换阶段性特征明显,初冬强度偏强,隆冬和后冬转为偏弱。受其影响,冬季全国大部分地区气温较常年同期偏高,但季内变化显著,初冬冷、隆冬和后冬暖。进一步研究表明,冬季风强度偏弱与2014年9月北极海冰范围偏大（去线性趋势）有关,前期北极海冰偏大不利于西伯利亚高压偏强,进而导致冬季风偏弱和冬季气温偏高。中部型尼尔尼诺(El Ni〖AKn~D〗o)和太平洋十年振荡(PDO)暖位相的配合是造成冬季风强度偏弱的另一个重要外强迫。PDO位相在El Ni〖AKn~D〗o事件对东亚冬季风的影响中起调制作用,赤道中太平洋暖海温有利于偏南风距平控制我国东部及东部沿海地区,东亚冬季风强度偏弱,当PDO暖位相和El Ni〖AKn~D〗o事件协同作用时,东亚地区大气环流对El Ni〖AKn~D〗o事件的响应更加显著。东亚冬季风的季内变化则与大气对中部型El Ni〖AKn~D〗o事件的响应过程有关。     

2013年海洋和大气环流异常及对中国气候的影响

本文对2013年海洋和大气环流异常特征进行分析,讨论这些异常特征对中国气温和降水的主要影响。结果表明：2012/2013年冬季,北极涛动持续维持负位相,500 hPa位势高度场上,欧亚大陆中高纬环流呈“两槽一脊”的环流形势,乌拉尔山的高压脊持续偏强,而东亚槽也异常偏强,导致全国平均气温较常年同期偏低。季内,西伯利亚高压强度变化显著,与之相对应,我国气温季内阶段性变化大,前冬冷、后冬暖。进一步研究表明,前秋北极海冰的大幅偏少是造成东亚冬季风偏强的重要原因。2013年冬季至夏季,赤道中东太平洋海温异常偏低而海洋性大陆至西太平洋海温异常偏高,受此影响,夏季西太平洋副热带高压位置明显偏北,导致我国北方夏季多雨。与此同时,受西太平洋副热带高压下沉气流的控制,我国南方大部高温持续。2013年南海夏季风爆发偏早两候,结束偏晚4候,强度偏弱。     

2019/2020年冬季我国暖湿气候特征及成因分析

2019/2020年冬季,我国大部分地区气温显著偏高,降水异常偏多,气候总体表现为“暖湿”的异常特征。异常成因分析表明：2019/2020年东亚冬季风强度较常年同期偏弱,西伯利亚高压异常偏弱,季节内冬季风强度阶段性变化特征显著;北极极涡收缩于极地,强度偏强,AO为异常偏强的正位相,乌拉尔山阻塞高压活动偏弱,东亚槽偏弱,欧亚中高纬以纬向环流为主;西太平洋副热带高压强度偏强、位置偏西偏北,印缅槽阶段性活跃,二者有利于太平洋和印度洋水汽向我国输送。受北半球环流异常的影响,我国冬季出现了“暖湿”的异常特征。进一步对东亚冬季风偏弱的可能原因分析表明：2019年秋冬季赤道中太平洋暖海温发展,2019年10月至2020年1月Ni〖AKn~D〗o3.4指数均大于0.5℃,这种类中部型El Ni〖AKn~D〗o海温异常有利于激发偏强、偏北的西北太平洋反气旋,进而抑制了东亚冬季风的发展和南下;此外,冬季北半球极涡收缩于极地,强度偏强,AO持续异常偏强的正位相,均不利于乌拉尔山阻塞高压的发展,且东亚大槽明显偏弱,共同导致了欧亚中高纬地区以纬向环流为主,东亚冬季风偏弱。     

从2011/2012和2015/2016年冬季大气环流异常看北极海冰以及前期夏季北极大气环流异常的作用

利用美国NCEP/NCAR、欧洲中心ERA-Interim再分析资料,以及英国哈得来中心海冰密集度资料,通过诊断分析和数值模拟试验,研究了2011/2012和2015/2016年两个冬季大气环流异常的主要特征和可能原因。结果表明,尽管热带太平洋海温背景截然不同（分别为弱的拉尼娜事件和强厄尔尼诺事件）,但这两个冬季西伯利亚高压均异常偏强,自1979年以来其强度分别排第1和第5位。前期秋季北极海冰异常偏少是导致这两个冬季西伯利亚高压偏强的主要原因。更为重要的是,前期夏季北冰洋表面反气旋风场,以及其上空对流层中、低层平均气温偏高,加强了北极海冰偏少对冬季大气变率的负反馈,进一步促进了西伯利亚高压的加强,从而有利于东亚地区冬季阶段性强严寒的出现。因此,夏季北极大气环流的动力和热力状态不仅影响夏、秋季北极海冰,而且对海冰偏少影响亚洲冬季气候变率有重要调节作用。2015/2016年冬季强厄尔尼诺事件并不能掩盖来自北极海冰和大气环流的影响。      

2012/2013年冬季中国气温异常成因分析

2012/2013年冬季,我国平均气温为-3.8℃,较常年同期(-3.4℃)偏低0.4℃,就空间分布来看,我国东北、华北、黄淮、江淮和新疆北部气温较常年同期偏低。利用1951-2013年国家气候中心整理的全国160站月平均气温资料、英国Hadley中心全球海温资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析大气环流资料、德国不莱梅大学提供的海冰卫星遥感资料,通过EOF分析、回归分析、合成分析、相关分析方法研究了引起2012/2013年冬季我国气温异常的东亚中高纬大气环流异常,并从海洋环境要素异常的角度分析造成这种环流异常的原因。分析结果表明:2012/2013年冬季我国气温异常分布主要是由于北极涛动(AO,Arctic Oscillation)呈负位相,西伯利亚地区高度场异常偏高,东亚大槽明显偏深的环流形式引起的。而太平洋年代际振荡(PDO,Pacific Decadal Oscillation)负位相是引起西伯利亚高压强度偏强和东亚冬季风强度偏强的年代际海洋背景,前期9月海冰范围异常偏小是导致2012/2013年冬季AO呈现负位相及我国东北和新疆北部呈现异常低温的主要原因。     

秋季北极海冰对中国冬季气温的影响

利用海冰资料、中国地面气候资料、环流特征量资料及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,研究了秋季北极海冰变化对中国冬季平均气温、日气温变率以及异常低温天气的影响。分析结果表明,秋季北极海冰异常偏多年中国冬季常为暖冬;异常偏少年中国冬季常为冷冬,且异常低温天气出现频率更高,常发生低温灾害事件。秋季北极海冰通过影响后期的北半球极涡、东亚冬季风和西伯利亚高压进而影响中国冬季的平均气温,且通过影响冬季异常强西伯利亚高压的出现频次,影响中国冬季异常低温天气的发生频次。合成分析结果表明,秋季北极海冰异常偏少年的冬季,中国以北亚欧大陆高纬度的偏北风较强,且中国及其以北的中高纬度地区空气异常偏冷,导致极地和高纬度的冷空气易向南爆发,造成中国冬季气温偏低,异常低温天气频发。     

北半球海-冰-气系统的10年振荡及其振源初探

采用最大熵谱方法分析了1953～1990年间冬季喀拉海、巴伦支海海冰面积指数、西伯利亚高压强度指数、东亚冬季风强度指数的变化周期,并把冬季喀拉海、巴伦支海海冰面积变化与春夏各季节副热带高压的特征量指数（包括面积指数、强度指数）变化进行了比较。研究发现在海冰-大气气候系统中,明显存在10年尺度周期性变化;冬季喀拉海、巴伦支海海冰面积变化与西伯利亚高压强度指数、东亚冬季风强度指数均呈现相反的变化趋势,海冰偏多（少）则西伯利亚高压偏弱（强）、东亚冬季风也偏弱（强）;冬季海冰面积变化与春夏各季节副热带高压的范围、强度均呈现相同的变化趋势,并且海冰变化要超前0～1年;复经验正交分析表明大气10年尺度周期性变化的振荡源分布均与某一海区（洋区）有关,大气10年尺度变化是对海洋（海冰）变化的响应。     

北极臭氧损耗对初春东亚中高纬地区地面气温影响的观测分析

利用1948—2007年NCEP/NCAR月平均2m地面气温再分析资料、3月北极涛动（AO）指数和春季臭氧含量资料,采用合成分析方法分析了北极臭氧损耗对初春东亚中高纬地区地面气温的影响。结果表明,臭氧低（高）值年,3月东亚中高纬地区地面气温存在正（负）异常。4月的与3月类似,但气温异常的幅度减小,中心位置也有所变化。对...     

Shortwave aerosol optical depth of Arctic haze measured on board the NOAA WP-3D during AGASP-II,April 1986

Measurements of spectral aerosol optical depth in the Alaskan and Canadian Arctic were made from the NOAA Lockheed WP-3D aircraft as part of the second Arctic Gas and Aerosol Sampling Program (AGASP-II) during April 1986. The flight tracks and altitudes flown enabled measurements of the vertical and horizontal distribution of aerosol optical depth in the troposphere as well as direct determination of the stratospheric component. Tropospheric aerosol optical depth ranged from about 0.1 to 0.7. The factor of 7 variability sometimes occurred within 50 km horizontally; comparable variability occurred within less than 1 to 2 km vertically. The Angstrom exponents of the spectral optical depths ranged from 0.5 to 2.0, and some of the variability was apparently related to distinct aerosol regimes.     

Arctic sea ice and Eurasian climate: A review

The Arctic plays a fundamental role in the climate system and has shown significant climate change in recent decades,including the Arctic warming and decline of Arctic sea-ice extent and thickness. In contrast to the Arctic warming and reduction of Arctic sea ice, Europe, East Asia and North America have experienced anomalously cold conditions, with record snowfall during recent years. In this paper, we review current understanding of the sea-ice impacts on the Eurasian climate.Paleo, observational and modelling studies are covered to summarize several major themes, including: the variability of Arctic sea ice and its controls; the likely causes and apparent impacts of the Arctic sea-ice decline during the satellite era,as well as past and projected future impacts and trends; the links and feedback mechanisms between the Arctic sea ice and the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation, the recent Eurasian cooling, winter atmospheric circulation, summer precipitation in East Asia, spring snowfall over Eurasia, East Asian winter monsoon, and midlatitude extreme weather; and the remote climate response(e.g., atmospheric circulation, air temperature) to changes in Arctic sea ice. We conclude with a brief summary and suggestions for future research.     

300 hPa北极涡年际及年代际变化特征的研究

利用NCEP/NCAR 1949—2002年月平均再分析高度场资料,通过线性倾向估计、二项式系数加权平均、Morlet小波分析等诊断方法,系统地讨论了300 hPa北半球极涡面积、强度及中心位置的年际和年代际变化特征,结果表明:(1)年平均北极涡的面积在20世纪70年代中期之前在总的上升趋势中有几次较小的波动,之后在总体下降趋势中有几次较大的起伏;Ⅰ、Ⅱ区的线性变化趋势非常小,Ⅳ区最大,夏季的年际变化相对明显一些,秋季变化最弱,各季节均有线性收缩趋势,冬季幅度最大,秋季最小。(2)年平均极涡强度的年际、年代际变化特征与极涡面积有相似之处,但不同年份存在显著差异;各分区的强度变化与北半球类似(特别是Ⅰ区);夏季的年际变化幅度最大,春、夏季年代际变化的特征明显,秋季最弱。(3)北极涡中心位置通常并不在北极点,各分区极涡总面积所占的百分比有明显差异,且有月际变化,这些差异与海陆热力差异造成的环流的差异密切相关;极涡的主要位置有一定的年际、年代际变化特征;极涡中心位置主要偏向亚洲大陆及太平洋一侧。     

Aerosols in Alaskan air masses

Results from measurements of the composition and size distribution of aerosol particles advected into central Alaska are reported. It is argued that the aerosol predominant in number, but not necessarily in mass, consists of submicron droplets of sulfuric acid. The major aerosol by mass in arctic air is a removal-resistant accumulation mode (radius 0.3 m) probably to large extent originating from pollution sources 10³ km upstream (mostly in central Eurasia) from the site in Alaska. The accumulation mode aerosol disappears when arctic air masses are replaced with relatively warmer air masses flowing in from the northern Pacific. The latter air mass systems have been strongly scavenged by clouds and precipitation associated with the Aleutian low pressure system and with forced orographic uplifting over the Alaska Mountain Range; nevertheless the Pacific air masses contain substantial (i.e., 500–1000 cm^-3) quantities of small (several hundredths of a micron in radius) particles. Arctic-derived air masses are enriched in large (i.e, 0.3 ) particles compared to Pacific Marine air masses, whereas the opposite trend is found for smaller, Aitken, particles. The smaller particles are found in greatest abundance in warmer air mass systems, presumably because of the relatively brief time since such air masses were last exposed to sunlight with attendant production of small particles from the gas phase.     

NOAA WP-3D instrumentation and flight operations on AGASP-II

The second Arctic Gas and Aerosol Sampling Program (AGASP-II) was conducted across the non-Soviet Arctic in March and April 1986, to study the aerosol, gaseous, chemical, and optical properties of Arctic haze. One component of the program was supported with an instrumented NOAA WP-3D atmospheric research aircraft. Measurements of wind, temperature, ozone, water vapor, condensation nucleus concentration, and aerosol scattering extinction coefficient were used to determine the locations and properties of haze layers. The first three NOAA WP-3D research flights were conducted north of Barrow, Alaska, and over the Beaufort Sea northeast of Barter Island, Alaska. The next three sampled conditions in the high Arctic near Alert, Northwest Territories, Canada. All basic meteorological, gas, and aerosol systems are described. The WP-3D flight tracks and operations are presented.     

Mesoscale Variability in the Summer Arctic Boundary Layer

Observations from the summer Arctic Ocean Experiment 2001 (AOE-2001) are analysed with a focus on the interactions between mesoscale and boundary-layer dynamics. Wavelet analyses of surface-pressure variations show daylong periods with different characteristics, some featuring episodes of pronounced high-frequency surface-pressure variability, here hypothesized to be caused by trapped gravity waves. These episodes are accompanied by enhanced boundary-layer turbulence and an enhanced spectral gap, but with only minor influence on the surface stress. During these episodes, mesoscale phenomena were often encountered and usually identified as front-like features in the boundary layer, with a peak in drizzle followed by changing temperature. These phenomena resemble synoptic fronts, though they are generally shallow, shorter-lasting, have no signs of frontal clouds, and do not imply a change in air mass. Based on this analysis, we hypothesize that the root cause of the episodes with high-frequency surface-pressure variance are shallow, mesoscale fronts moving across the pack ice. They may be formed due to local-to-regional horizontal contrasts, for example, between air with different lifetimes over the Arctic or with perturbations in the cloud field causing differential cooling of the boundary layer. Thermal contrasts sharpen as the air is transported with the mean flow. The propagating mesoscale fronts excite gravity waves, which affect the boundary-layer turbulence and also seem to favour entrainment of free tropospheric air into the boundary layer.     

Distinct Modes of Winter Arctic Sea Ice Motion and Their Associations with Surface Wind Variability

Using monthly mean sea ice velocity data obtained from the International Arctic Buoy Programme (IABP) for the period of 1979–1998 and the monthly mean NCEP/NCAR re-analysis dataset (1960–2002), we investigated the spatiotemporal evolution of the leading sea ice motion mode (based on a complex correlation matrix constructed of normalized sea ice motion velocity) and their association with sea level pressure (SLP) and the predominant modes of surface wind field variability. The results indicate that the leadi...     

Linking the northern hemisphere sea-ice reduction trend and the quasi-decadal arctic sea-ice oscillation

The nature of the reduction trend and quasi-decadal oscillation in Northern Hemisphere sea-ice extent is investigated. The trend and oscillation that seem to be two separate phenomena have been found in data. This study examines a hypothesis that the Arctic sea-ice reduction trend in the last three decades amplified the quasi-decadal Arctic sea-ice oscillation (ASIO) due to a positive ice/ocean-albedo feedback, based on data analysis and a conceptual model proposed by Ikeda et al. The theoretical, conceptual model predicts that the quasi-decadal oscillation is amplified by the thinning sea-ice, leading to the ASIO, which is driven by the strong positive feedback between the atmosphere and ice-ocean systems. Such oscillation is predicted to be out-of-phase between the Arctic Basin and the Nordic Seas with a phase difference of 3/4, with the Nordic Seas leading the Arctic. The wavelet analysis of the sea ice data reveals that the quasi-decadal ASIO occurred actively since the 1970s following the trend starting in the 1960s (i.e., as sea-ice became thinner and thinner), as the atmosphere experienced quasi-decadal oscillations during the last century. The wavelet analysis also confirms the prediction of such out-of-phase feature between these two basins, which varied from 0.62 in 1960 to 0.25 in 1995. Furthermore, a coupled ice-ocean general circulation model (GCM) was used to simulate two scenarios, one without the greenhouse gas warming and the other having realistic atmospheric forcing along with the warming that leads to sea-ice reduction trend. The quasi-decadal ASIO is excited in the latter case compared to the no-warming case. The wavelet analyses of the simulated ice volume were also conducted to derive decadal ASIO and similar phase relationship between the Arctic Ocean and the Nordic Seas. An independent data source was used to confirm such decadal oscillation in the upper layer (or freshwater) thickness, which is consistent with the model simulation. A modified feedback loop for the sea-ice trend and ASIO was proposed based on the previous one by Mysak and Venegas and the ice/albedo and cloud/albedo feedabcks, which are responsible for the sea ice reduction trend.     

Arctic hazes in summer over Greenland and the North American Arctic: II. Nature and concentrations of accumulation-mode and giant particles

Airborne measurements made during August 1985 over Greenland and its environs show that both accumulation-mode (0.1 m D2.0 m) and giant (D2 m) particles were present in relatively high concentrations in arctic haze layers and that the accumulation-mode particles dominated light scattering. Particles with diameters (D) between 1 and 4 m consisted predominately of mixed materials, small and dense inclusions, and probably organic compounds containing sulfur. Many of the particles from 0.1 to 1 m in diameter were also of mixed composition, with sulfuric acid, ammonium sulfate and organics probably the dominant constituents.