中国的全球变化研究项目评述

受国家自然科学基金委员会地球科学部委托，中国科学院兰州文献情报中心于１９９３年１０￣１２月通过走访科学家和有关部门以及通信联系等方式对我国全球变化研究工作进行了较为系统的调查，并编印了《中国科学家全球变化研究工作项目汇编（１９８５￣１９９３）》。１９９４年４￣５月，又进行了第二次补充调查。在此基础上，得出了对中国全球变化立项研究情况的初步认识。     

美国国家科学院全球变化科学

在国际地图生物圈计划中(IGBP),美国国家科学院全球变化协调委员会(CCGC)承担着美国国家委员会的任务。     

近百年全球温度变化中的ENSO分量

首先利用Nin o C区海温、Nin o 3区海温及两个不同的SOI序列,建立了1867年春到1998年春期间的ENSO指数序列.近百年来ENSO对热带、热带外地区年际尺度的温度变化有显著影响,热带地区温度变化滞后ENSO约1个季,热带外地区滞后约2～3个季.ENSO能解释同期全球年平均温度方差的14%～16%左右;如果考虑ENSO对温度影响的滞后特征,则能解释的部分提高到20.6%.ENSO对温度的影响主要是在年际时间尺度上,对近百年来全球温度变化的长期趋势和年代际变率贡献不大.     

近百年全球温度变化中的ENSO分量

首先利用Nin~o C区海温、Nin~o 3区海温及两个不同的SOI序列,建立了1867年春到1998年春期间的ENSO指数序列。近百年来ENSO对热带、热带外地区年际尺度的温度变化有显著影响,热带地区温度变化滞后ENSO约1个季,热带外地区滞后约2～3个季。ENSO能解释同期全球年平均温度方差的14%～16%左右;如果考虑ENSO对温度影响的滞后特征,则能解释的部分提高到20.6%。ENSO对温度的影响主要是在年际时间尺度上,对近百年来全球温度变化的长期趋势和年代际变率贡献不大。     

1980-2011年全球不同地区冰川物质平衡变化分析

在气候变暖背景下,全球大多数冰川加速退缩,冰川物质亏损严重,呈负平衡增长趋势。利用世界冰川监测服务处（WGMS）最新刊布的物质平衡资料,对全球重点监测冰川的物质平衡现状及结果进行扼要的总结和比较,分析了1980-2011年全球不同地区冰川物质平衡的区域特征、变化过程及总体变化趋势,评估了冰川物质平衡对海平面变化的贡献。结果表明：1980-2011年,全球冰川物质亏损严重,加速退缩,平均减薄了14 m,其中阿尔卑斯山脉及太平洋海岸山脉的退缩尤为明显,平均减薄了30 m左右;各地区冰川的平均物质平衡变化趋势与全球平均趋势基本保持一致,具有典型的纬度地带性分布特征;物质平衡变化过程分为正平衡波动型、负平衡波动型及负平衡持续增长型三类,但总体上处于负平衡持续增长趋势;在全球继续增温的未来,冰川将会继续退缩,物质亏损强度不断增大,负平衡趋势不断增强。冰川物质平衡对海平面上升的贡献呈增大趋势,且与全球气温上升基本上是同步的。     

国际全球变化研究计划综览

全球变化研究是80年代兴起的跨学科、综合性的迄今规模最大的国际合作研究活动，其目的是研究人类所面临的一系列重大而紧迫的全球环境问题，即研究造成这些全球环境问题的物理过程、化学过程和生物过程之间复杂的相互作用，以解释当今日益显见的变化的意义，从而提出措施以减缓或适应全球变化的结果。国际全球变化研究计划由世界气候研究计划(WCRP)、国际地圈生物圈计划(IGBP)和全球环境变化中的人类因素计划(HDP或HDGECP)组成。本文浓缩介绍了这三个计划及其核心计划的科学目标、研究内容、实施期限、预期成果等关键内容。     

钛白废液的治理与综合利用硫酸钾溶解平衡的热力学研究

本文应用热力学基本原理和方法研究硫酸钾溶解平衡,结果表明,硫酸钾在纯水中的溶解度随温度变化符合前人总结的实验规律,而在４３℃的钛白废水液液中硫酸钾有反常深 现象,这为确定硫酸钾结晶析出的最佳温度提供了热力学依据,通过热力学计算,论证了硫酸钾溶解平衡符合势学基本原理。     

从全球变化看当前我国气候和环境问题

近100年来全球温度平均增长0.5℃这一数值可能偏大。一些气候模拟将其作为均由温室效应引起据此计算的未来增温值可能偏高。本世纪内自然因素对全球温度的影响是显而易见的。历史上多种时间尺度的温暖时代,都是自然灾害相对减少和人类文明大发展的时期。气候变冷时期才是全球性干旱沙漠化和各种严重自然灾害的群发时期。自然因子预示公元2020年前仍有变冷的可能。未来气候变暖,其后果可能是既有弊(导致海平面升高)又有利(利于农业发展等)。     

论全球海陆变迁的主要原因

历史发展过程中不少专家学者,对地球上各个大陆形成演化作了多年大量的研究工作,但认识千差万别。如最早的大陆漂移学说,后来又出现海底扩张学说—板块构造学说等等。经过多年研究认为,全球7个大陆不会漂移,而且也无充分依据将地球划分成几个板块。因为板块构造学说的运动机制基本是合理的,但是,板块划分依据不足、各板块的界线不明确、各板块的地质差别及特征不清楚等。所以,笔者认为全球各大陆整体是不分的,各个陆块地质时期的变化,是海陆变迁的结果。     

岩相古地理优势相方法及应用——兼谈“广义”与“狭义”岩相古地理及若干新的研究方向*

提出岩相古地理研究的优势相思路与方法,优势相划分由等时性界面限定的沉积持续时间和沉积厚度这条主线串联起来。优势相分析具有定性与定量兼有的特征,即以各种定性与定量的、反映某个时期或阶段沉积环境特点的关键因素或指标资料为基础,由点到线、由线到面,点、线、面结合,由二维到三维空间,确定该阶段或该时期占优势的主导沉积相或岩相。主导沉积相或岩相既要满足沉积持续时间的主导、又要满足沉积物质表现优势,还需满足盆地或区块总体背景和环境格局上的合理性与综合性。指出优势因素(或称优势参数)是优势相确定的基础和前提。提出了“广义岩相古地理”和“狭义岩相古地理”2个概念,在其研究内容、精度、理论深度、研究区域范围和应用等方面进行区别,但并不能由一两个指标就简单区分,需要综合对比和分析才可以界定。论文还论述了岩相古地理研究出现的7个新方向,这些新的研究方向可根据研究目的和解决的实际勘探目标,进行广义和狭义岩相古地理分析。运用优势相分析思路和方法,在柴达木盆地新生代等时性地层划分及建立了盆地等时地层格架基础上,进行了柴达木盆地关键时期岩相古地理恢复。     

The relationship between apparent equilibrium temperature and closure temperature with application to oxygen isotope geospeedometry

Oxygen isotope fractionation between coexisting minerals in slowly cooled rocks conveys information about their cooling history. By using the fast grain boundary （FGB） model to simulate closed-system diffusive ex- change of oxygen isotopes between coexisting minerals, I show that the apparent equilibrium temperatures （Tae） by the mineral pair with the largest isotopic fractionation （PLIF） always lies between the closure temperatures （To） of those two minerals. Therefore, when the rate of oxygen diffusion and hence Tc for the PLIF chance to be comparable （such as in the case of quartz and magnetite）, Tae will serve as a good approximation of To regardless of variation in mineral proportions. The specialty of the PLIF in constraining Tac within their Tc range can be generalized to other stable isotope systems and element partitioning. By approximating Tc with Tac and inverting Dodson＇s equation, the cooling rate of plutonic or metamorphic rocks can be inferred.     

Climate and global change in relation to sustainable development: The challenge to science

In the light of the current worldwide concern on climate and global change and the outcome of the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in 1992, the paper relates climate and global change to sustainable development. It emphasizes the importance of scientific research in the advancement of knowledge in the related areas. The role of science to socio-economic development is discussed in the context of the symbiotic relationship between science and society. In this connection, the four areas identified by the Rio Conference are discussed.     

高亚洲冰川系统物质平衡特征及其对全球变化响应研究进展与展望

分布在高亚洲的大量现代冰川,是亚洲中部干旱半干旱地区最重要的淡水资源.高亚洲各区因环境差异,各区冰川系统物质平衡及其对全球气候变化的响应就表现出不同特点,需进一步应用冰川系统理论和方法对高亚洲冰川系统进行合理分区,研究各分区冰川系统的结构特征、物质平衡特征及其对气候变化的响应过程.通过总结国内外高亚洲冰川系统研究的现状,找出了国内外研究的优势及不足;在此基础上,从高亚洲冰川系统的等级划分、气候地形背景、结构特征、物质平衡特征、对全球变化的响应以及冰川系统径流变化对冰川灾害及环境影响的评估等方面进行了研究展望.并认为需要根据各区气候、地理条件划分不同的次级冰川系统,然后分别对不同冰川系统的冰川变化进行预测,根据冰川变化趋势,制定最优利用冰川水资源方案和冰川灾害防范措施.     

Palaeoclimatic cycles, global environmental changes and new glacial periods induced by the impact of extraterrestrial bodies

In terms of Earth-Sun geometry, the Milankovitch theory has successfully explained most of the cyclic palaeoclimatic variations during the history of the Earth, especially in the Quaternary. In this paper, the authors suggest that the impact of extraterrestrial bodies on the Earth may be another mechanism to cause palaeoclimatic cycles, global environmental changes and new glacial periods. Based on geological and geochemical records in the boundary layers produced by six huge Cenozoic bolide-impact events (65, 34, 15, 2.4, 1.1, 0.73 Ma B.P.), including those at 34, 15, 1.1 and 0.73 Ma B. P. which are represented by four famous tektite-strewn fields, the process and mechanics of palaeoclimatic cycles and global environmental catastrophes induced by extraterrestrial impact are discussed in detail. Impact-generated dust, soot and aerosol floating in the stratosphere could result in short-term (<1 year), rapid drop in temperature immediately after impact. Through self-regulation of the Earth’s climate system, the temperature at the surface slowly went up within 100a and maintained stable for a long time at 250K. If there were no other factors leading to the break-down of the newly-established equilibrium, a new glacial pound would be initiated. Estimating from the thickness of δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O anomalies in sediments across the impact boundary layer and deposition rate, the duration of two stages of the palaeoclimate cycle in the form of cold weather—greenhouse effect—normal weather was 10⁴ – 10⁵a, respectively. The conclusion deduced from the above model is supported by palaeotemperature change recorded by oxygen isotope in sediments across the impact boundary layer. The study was granted by the Scientific and Technological Bureau of Resources and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZ952-J1-031) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China.     

Exhumation of oceanic eclogites: thermodynamic constraints on pressure,temperature, bulk composition and density

The exhumation mechanism of high‐pressure (HP) and ultrahigh‐pressure (UHP) eclogites formed by the subduction of oceanic crust (hereafter referred to as oceanic eclogites) is one of the primary uncertainties associated with the subduction factory. The phase relations and densities of eclogites with MORB compositions are modelled using thermodynamic calculations over a P–T range of 1–4 GPa and 400–800 °C, respectively, in the NCKFMASHTO (Na₂O–CaO–K₂O–FeO–MgO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂–H₂O–TiO₂–Fe₂O₃) system. Our modelling suggests that the mineral assemblages, mineral proportions and density of oceanic crust subducted along a cold P–T path are quite different from those of crust subducted along a warm P–T path, and that the density of oceanic eclogites is largely controlled by the stability of low‐density hydrous minerals, such as lawsonite, chlorite, glaucophane and talc. Along a cold subduction P–T path with a geotherm of ~6 °C km^?1, lawsonite is always present at 1.1 to >4.0 GPa, and chlorite, glaucophane and talc can be stable at pressures of up to 2.3, 2.6 and 3.6 GPa respectively. Along such a P–T path, the density of subducted oceanic crust is always lower than that of the surrounding mantle at depths shallower than 110–120 km (< 3.3–3.6 GPa). However, along a warm subduction P–T path with a geotherm of ~10 °C km^?1, the P–T path is outside the stability field of lawsonite, and the hydrous minerals of chlorite, epidote and amphibole break down completely into dry dense minerals at relatively lower pressures of 1.5, 1.85 and 1.9 GPa respectively. Along such a warm subduction P–T path, the subducted oceanic crust becomes denser than the surrounding mantle at depths >60 km (>1.8 GPa). Oceanic eclogites with high H₂O content, oxygen fugacity, bulk‐rock X_Mg [ = MgO/(MgO + FeO)], X_Al [ = Al₂O₃/(Al₂O₃ + MgO + FeO)] and low X_Ca [ = CaO/(CaO + MgO + FeO + Na₂O)] are likely suitable for exhumation, which is consistent with the bulk‐rock compositions of the natural oceanic eclogites on the Earth's surface. On the basis of natural observations and our calculations, it is suggested that beyond depths around 110–120 km oceanic eclogites are not light enough and/or there are no blueschists to compensate the negative buoyancy of the oceanic crust, therefore explaining the lack of oceanic eclogites returned from ultradeep mantle (>120 km) to the Earth's surface. The exhumed light–cold–hydrous oceanic eclogites may have decoupled from the top part of the sinking slab at shallow depths in the forearc region and are exhumed inside the serpentinized subduction channel, whereas the dense–hot–dry eclogites may be retained in the sinking slab and recycled into deeper mantle.     

A historical review on the roles of science and politics in addressing global environmental issues

Based on a historical review of the so-called Ozone crisis in the late 1970s and global climate changes since the 1980s, this paper examines the role of sciences and policies in the international community in dealing with the global environmental issues. Lessons show that a multi-discipline, multi-organizational and multi-national UN agency which remains relevant, assisting rather than guiding the process of climate negotiations is important.     

Ice-core records of global climate and environment changes

Precipitation accumulating on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets records several key parameters (temperature, accumulation, composition of atmospheric gases and aerosols) of primary interest for documenting the past global environment over recent climatic cycles and the chemistry of the preindustrial atmosphere. Several deep ice cores from Antarctica and Greenland have been studied over the last fifteen years. In both hemispheres, temperature records (based on stable isotope measurements in water) show the succession of glacial and interglacial periods. However, detailed features of the climatic stages are not identical in Antarctica and in Greenland. A tight link between global climate and greenhouse gas concentrations was discovered, CO₂ and CH₄ concentrations being lower in glacial conditions by about 80 and 0.3 ppmv, respectively, with respect to their pre-industrial levels of 280 and 0.65 ppmv. Coldest stages are also characterized by higher sea-salt and crustal aerosol concentrations. In Greenland, contrary to Antarctica, ice-age ice is alkaline. Gas-derived aerosol (in particular, sulfate) concentrations are generally higher for glacial periods, but not similar in both the hemispheres. Marine and continental biomass-related species are significant in Antarctica and Greenland ice, respectively. Finally, the growing impact of anthropogenic activities on the atmospheric composition is well recorded in both polar regions for long-lived compounds (in particular greenhouse gases), but mostly in Greenland for short-lived pollutants.     

范氏气体准静态开放式系统与气枪子波模拟

在范氏气枪模型中,理想气体准静态开放式系统方程通常被直接应用在范氏气体条件下,从而引起模拟结果的偏差。这里详细推导了范氏气体条件下准静态开放式热力学系统方程,并结合气泡振荡方程,应用四阶Runge-Kutta方法进行子波模拟。经过与实际数据对比分析,得到比原范氏气枪模型更接近实测子波的结果。