生态干扰度:一种评价植被天然性程度的方法

地球上现存的植物或森林群落都是植被与其环境长期适应及人类长期干扰影响的结果 ,因此 ,现实的植被反映着历史上人类对它们不同程度的影响。‘生态干扰’的概念常常被用来描述历史上人类对植被或森林影响的大小 ,即‘生态干扰度’;或用来表示现实植被离开它的‘天然植被’的距离 ,即现实植被的‘天然性程度’。如此的‘天然植被’可以是 :( 1 )历史上从未受过人类任何干扰的‘原始植被’;( 2 )基于当前立地的‘潜在的自然植被’。然而 ,成百上千年以来人类对自然的利用干扰 ,致使真正的‘原始植被’现在几乎无处可寻。因此 ,‘潜在的自然植被’被用来作为生态干扰度估计或植被天然性程度评价的参照系。作为一种很实用的生态分析手段 ,生态干扰度的方法已被广泛地应用在农、林、水、景观、城市及自然保护等诸多领域的生态评价上。为此 ,本文论述了生态干扰度的概念、原理、方法和应用实例。     

基于局部地表形态的可变过水宽度多流向算法

流向是地形分析中的重要内容之一,在分布式水文模型等研究中起着重要作用。文章提出基于局部地表形态的多流向算法,即对每一个DEM栅格,在以其为中心的3×3窗口中进行局部地形分析,确定基于随坡度和过水宽度而变化的水流分配系数。该方法被应用在实际数字地形模型上,并以汇水面积和比汇水面积为研究指标,与目前流行的D8、Dinf等算法进行了相似性分析。结果表明,该方法能够获得更为符合实际的水流汇集的空间分布。     

Using Audience Physiology to Assess Engaging Conservation Messages and Animal Taxa

Abstract

We used heart rate change as a tool to study how positive and negative wildlife conservation messaging impacts a viewer, and which types of animal images stimulate greatest reaction. We used scenes from five wildlife conservation videos available from environmental organization websites and YouTube, with positive and negative messaging. We found both very positive and very negative messaging in videos may be similarly effective in engaging viewers. A trend in greater changes in heart rate when insects, mammals, and birds appear on the screen suggests generally high human interest in these taxa, potentially due to avoidance and attraction responses. The number of scenes (N?=?54) in which various taxa appear reflects bias toward mammals (65%) and birds (17%) to capture viewers’ attention. Arousal is a primary step in engaging an audience to attend to a message. Physiological research offers innovative new techniques to evaluate public responses to communications about biodiversity conservation.     

A Framework for Expert Judgment to Assess Oil and Gas Resources

In frontier areas, where well data are sparse, many organizations have used expert judgment to estimate undiscovered resources. In this process, several important issues arise. How should the knowledge be elicited? At what level of aggregation (geologic process model, play, petroleum system, country, etc.) should the assessment be performed? How and at what stage of the assessment process should feedback be given to assessors? Is independent replication of estimates possible? How are issues of dependency treated? When and how should uncertainty be specified? The context for this presentation will be the methodology used in the US Geological Survey's 1998 1002-Arctic National Wildlife Refuge assessment of oil and gas resources.

     

Development of an Improved Methodology to Assess Potential Unconventional Gas Resources

Considering the important role played today by unconventional gas resources in North America and their enormous potential for the future around the world, it is vital to both policy makers and industry that the volumes of these resources and the impact of technology on these resources be assessed. To provide for optimal decision making regarding energy policy, research funding, and resource development, it is necessary to reliably quantify the uncertainty in these resource assessments. Since the 1970s, studies to assess potential unconventional gas resources have been conducted by various private and governmental agencies, the most rigorous of which was by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). The USGS employed a cell-based, probabilistic methodology which used analytical equations to calculate distributions of the resources assessed. USGS assessments have generally produced distributions for potential unconventional gas resources that, in our judgment, are unrealistically narrow for what are essentially undiscovered, untested resources. In this article, we present an improved methodology to assess potential unconventional gas resources. Our methodology is a stochastic approach that includes Monte Carlo simulation and correlation between input variables. Application of the improved methodology to the Uinta–Piceance province of Utah and Colorado with USGS data validates the means and standard deviations of resource distributions produced by the USGS methodology, but reveals that these distributions are not right skewed, as expected for a natural resource. Our investigation indicates that the unrealistic shape and width of the gas resource distributions are caused by the use of narrow triangular input parameter distributions. The stochastic methodology proposed here is more versatile and robust than the USGS analytic methodology. Adoption of the methodology, along with a careful examination and revision of input distributions, should allow a more realistic assessment of the uncertainty surrounding potential unconventional gas resources.     

Landscape Pattern Metrics: An Empirical Study from 2-D to 3-D

Analysis of landscape patterns, as an important means of studying landscape ecological functions and processes, is a key part of landscape ecology. The traditional patch-corridor-matrix paradigm, ignoring the differences between real three-dimensional (3-D) landscapes and two-dimensional (2-D) landscape maps, quantifies and describes 2-D landscape maps using landscape pattern metrics. Such simplification of the real landscape will lead to differences between 2-D landscape pattern metrics and real values, especially in mountainous areas. This study seeks to examine whether these differences are significant in natural landscape patterns. Fourteen small watersheds in a mountainous area were selected as sample landscape units. Two metrics at the patch level, five metrics at the class level, and four metrics at the landscape level were chosen as representative metrics. The results indicated that there were significant differences between the 2-D and 3-D landscape pattern metrics at the patch level, landscape level, and class level. We interpret the differences as errors in the 2-D metrics. The errors depend on the metric and the landscape type, and the errors for different landscape types were inconsistent. Whether these errors affect further interpretation of the role of pattern in landscape ecology remains uncertain.     

Use a Spatial Analysis Model to Assess Habitat Quality in Lashihai Watershed

Habitat quality assessments are of great significance for protecting biodiversity. This study analyzes the changing habitat quality of Lashihai watershed based on SPOT satellite images. We extracted the land use data for Lashihai watershed in Yunnan province for the years 2000 and 2015, and then used an InVEST model to evaluate habitat degradation, habitat quality and habitat scarcity in the study area from 2000 to 2015. Spatial statistical methods were used to determine changes to spatial dynamics. Results indicate that the number of areas with habitat degradation was generally small, and that both the number of areas with habitat degradation and the degree of degradation had fallen noticeably during the fifteen-year study period. In general, the quality of habitats was maintained or improved, while the quality of habitats decreased in only a few areas. The scarcity of habitats for cultivated land had increased, the tension between people and land use was relatively prominent. The reason habitat quality in Lashihai watershed has improved can be attributed to three factors: 1) The policy of returning farmland to forests since 2000 has been well implemented and has achieved remarkable results. Loss of forests from logging and deforestation has basically been eliminated, and great progress has been made restoring the ecological environment. 2) High background value of quality habitat suitability benefits from the research area’s high vegetation coverage. 3) The development of the local tourism economy has transformed the area’s ecological advantages into an economic bonus, greatly increasing the income level and living standards of residents. At the same time, the ecological resource bonus has increased the enthusiasm of residents for ecological protection and has helped to promote the protection of local eco-systems, both reducing ecological degradation and improving habitat quality. At the same time, increasing conflicts between land and people should be addressed. Support is needed to promote development of the ecological economy while continuously reducing ecological degradation and further increasing residents’ income. There must be less reliance on industry and less pressure on both land and people, all the while ensuring that the local economy and ecology can more forward together in a sustainable way.     

基于DPSIR模型与Theil系数的河南省可持续发展评价

基于"驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应"(DPSIR)模型,构建了河南省区域可持续发展评价的指标体系,运用熵权法对其可持续发展状况进行评价,引入Theil系数对其进行空间解构,结果表明:1)河南省总体可持续发展能力不强且差异明显。可持续发展能力一般及以下的城市数量占河南省城市总数的94.44%,可持续发展能力较差的达到了1/3;郑州可持续发展能力较强,鹤壁可持续发展能力最弱;2)河南省区域可持续发展能力的空间差异性是由区内和区际差异共同造成的,二者贡献率相当,总体呈下降趋势;中原城市群是区内和区际差异的主要贡献者,黄淮海地区的贡献率最低;3)在区域可持续发展能力构成要素中,响应对区域可持续发展能力的影响最大,是决定性因子;驱动力对区域可持续发展能力的影响最小;基于各地市可持续发展的主要影响因素及组合情况,将其划分为压力约束型、驱动力引领型、压力支撑型、压力状态综合型及多因素共同驱动型5种类型。     

Application of Multi-Temporal MODIS NDVI Data to Assess Practiced Maize Calendars in Rwanda

Crop calendar is an important tool providing relevant information on crops cycles in a specific area for effective agricultural management. Crop calendars vary in different areas given dissimilarities in agro-ecosystems’ characteristics. This research used multi-temporal MODIS NDVI stratification to assess differences in practiced maize crop calendars in various areas of Rwanda. Four (4) sample NDVI strata dominated by agriculture were purposively chosen, and 433 local farmers were randomly selected from the strata for interviews. The collected information helped to know about their maize planting as well as harvesting dates in order to generate maize calendars per NDVI strata. The generated crop calendars were later classified using k-means unsupervised classification, and produced 4 groupings of practiced maize calendars irrespective of NDVI strata. ANOVA results revealed significant differences between both the generated maize crop calendars by NDVI strata and the practiced crop calendars irrespective of NDVI strata, at p = 0.05. Moreover, chi-square tests and t-tests revealed not only a significant relationship between maize calendars and number of crop growing seasons, but also a significant relationship between maize calendars and NDVI strata, at p = 0.05. Finally, findings of this research contrasted the present conviction that there exist a single general maize calendar all over the country. Instead, the results were in accordance with the fact that Rwanda agro-ecosystems differ from East to West in terms of, mainly, altitude and rainfall patterns variations.     

A Comparison of Moisture Scalars and Water Budget Methods to Assess Vegetation-Site Relationships

Quantification of vegetation-site relationships is often required in biogeographic research. Methods linking species to particular sites typically assess evaporative demand and soil moisture availability at the site, though methods differ in how these factors are assessed. This study compares three approaches—a water-budget approach, and field-based and map-based moisture scalars—in their ability to predict the occurrence of a single species, American beech (Fagus grandifolia), observed in 102, 0.04 ha plots in SE Ohio. Actual evapotranspiration and deficit provided results superior to field-based and map-based scalars. Map-based techniques are potentially limited at fine spatial scales, due to the large discrepancy between observed topographic variables, and those modeled with 7.5-minute elevation grids. The study concludes that a water budget approach is applicable to a wide range of studies exploring vegetation-site linkages. It has advantages of being objective in its computation, and applicable at a wide range of spatial scales. Perhaps most importantly with regard to global change research is the dynamic nature of the method: a site's classification will change concurrently with changes in climate.     

基于粗糙集的范例推理在泥石流危险性评价中的应用

将粗糙集理论和范例推理相结合,建立了基于粗糙集-范例推理的泥石流危险性评价模型.运用粗糙集理论对范例库中的范例进行属性约简和特征向量权值计算,用相似度量理论来实现最相似范例检索,得到泥石流的危险性评价结果.选取了一次泥石流(可能)最大冲出量,泥石流发生频率、流域面积、主沟长度、流域相对高差、流域切割密度、24 h最大降雨量、松散固体物质储量共8个因素作为泥石流危险性的影响因子;选取云南东川和西藏八宿等共14条泥石流沟资料进行建模分析.实例研究表明,基于粗糙集一范例推理的泥石流危险性评价结果与实际状态相吻合,该方法具有简便、高效、直观、实用的特点.     

An Empirical Method to Make Oil Production Models Tolerant to Anomalies

Modeling oil production is of interest to society and hotly debated. Often anomalies have occurred which makes modeling oil production via a particular theory (e.g., Hubbert’s bell curve) difficult. The empirical method described here allows for such historic anomalies to be incorporated while still using the underly theory. This method is explained using Hubbert’s bell curve and Former Soviet Union oil production as an example.     

典型生态产业园区发展模式及其借鉴

生态产业园区作为可持续发展理念走向实践的重要方向之一,在世界范围内得到了广泛推广,20世纪90年代以来中国也开始着手生态产业园区的建设和发展,并将其作为实现产业生态化与区域产业绿色化的重要手段。生态产业园区发展模式是对生态产业园区的一种综合与概括,集中体现了个体特色与整体差异。对国内外现有的生态产业园区类型进行归纳和划分,在此基础上分析和比较国内外典型生态产业园区的发展模式,指出不同模式的优长与局限,并将其与中国的具体实际相结合,为中国生态产业园区的整体差异化发展以及不同地区选择适宜的生态产业园区发展模式提供借鉴和参考。     

Using Vertical Aerial Photography to Estimate Mass Balance at a Point

The mass balance distribution over a 0.5 km² area of the lower part of South Cascade Glacier is obtained from remotely sensed measurements of its geometry and velocity field over two periods, 1992–93 and 1993–94. Vertical aerial photography from late summer 1992, 1993, and 1994 is analyzed photogrammetrically to get surface topography of South Cascade Glacier on a 100-meter square grid. The known bed topography is subtracted from the surface topography to get the ice thickness, and the surface topographies are subtracted from each other to get the thickness change. Annual displacement vectors, determined at points where natural features could be tracked from one year to the next, are contoured by hand and interpolated to the grid. Assuming that the ice follows Glen's flow law with exponent n = 3, and that 10% of the ice flow is due to sliding at the bed, the surface velocity is scaled by 0.82 to get the average velocity in the vertical ice column. The average velocities are combined with the thicknesses to calculate the flux divergence at each of 46 gridpoints on a 100-m square grid, where it is subtracted from the thickness change to get the mass balance.
Use of the same control points from year to year makes any systematic error in photogrammetric coordinates temporally constant, so such error has no effect on the mass balance estimate. Random error in coordinates is assumed to be uncorrelated from coordinate to coordinate, from point to point, from year to year; the standard error is estimated to be 1 m, resulting in a standard error in coordinate differences of about 1.5 m. A 1 m error in a vertical coordinate has nearly twice the effect on the estimated balance that one in a horizontal coordinate has and more than ten times the effect that one in ice thickness has. Compared with measurements at a stake, the estimated balances are about 1 m too negative.     

Ensemble Spatial Interpolation: A New Approach to Natural or Anthropogenic Variable Assessment

Natural Resources Research - This paper presents a novel and versatile framework for building ensemble spatial interpolation functions. As with all ensemble methods, the central idea is to assemble...     

Navigating to Multiple Horizons: Toward a Geography of Ocean-Space

While the ocean traditionally has attracted little attention within geography, we are now entering an era when marine research is increasingly technologically feasible and, at the same time, human interactions with ocean-space are ever more intense and complex. In response to these changes, a number of geographers ranging from critical development theorists to scholars of global environmental change to biogeographers have turned their attention to the study of marine areas. This article (and the articles that follow in this focus section) brings the ocean to the attention of human and physical geographers, both as an object of study in its own right and as a space for interpreting global social and physical processes and developing geographic techniques that span the land-sea divide.     

鄂尔多斯地区退耕还林造林模式研究

通过对鄂尔多斯地区退耕还林造林模式的研究,在造林技术方面总结出先进适用又符合当地实际的造林模式。其中,①风沙区造林模式:旱柳、柠条防风固沙林,杨树、沙柳、柠条防风固沙林,柠条、紫穗槐防风固沙林;②丘陵沟壑区造林模式:油松+沙棘,沙棘+柠条,油松+山杏;③干旱硬梁区造林模式:柠条两行一带式植苗造林、旱柳、沙柳防风固沙林、榆树、柠条防风固沙林,取得了显著成效。造林实践表明,3a后保存率达100%,造林成活率大于70%的造林面积准格尔旗占84%、鄂托克旗占82%,生长状况优良。说明采用的造林模式是成功的,可以直接指导退耕还林等项目的建设和可供毗邻地区生产造林借鉴。     

Who’s Winning the Public Process? How to Use Public Documents to Assess the Equity,Efficiency, and Effectiveness of Stakeholder Engagement

Abstract

It is widely recognized that stakeholder engagement processes produce advantages, but few studies acknowledge that they also can produce disadvantages. There is a global need to better assess stakeholder engagement processes by defining success and developing new methods to analyze stakeholder participation data. Our method of digitizing and coding stakeholder communications (1) produces a wide range of analyses, (2) tells the story of governance over time, (3) is comparable with other datasets, and (4) can be used wherever public documents exist. We demonstrate the utility of these integrated methods by examining statewide differences in public participation and success rates in Alaska’s Board of Fisheries’ (Board) proposal process. We determine that significantly different participation and success rates across the state indicate the existence of disadvantages and the need for further investigation into the equity, efficiency, and effectiveness of the Board process.