Geological Controls of Variograms in a Complex Carbonate Reservoir, Eastern Province, Saudi Arabia

To derive meaningful results from a geostatistical study, it is extremely important to establish the relationship between geology and variograms. However, it is not always easy to establish such a relationship, mainly because of the inadequacy of quantitative or qualitative information. Large amounts of reliable well-log porosity data and the detailed geological information from a complex carbonate reservoir located in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia provided an ideal case study of the relationships between geology and variograms. The reservoir under consideration is in the form of a gently dipping, elongated anticline and consists of three productive zones which have been subdivided into several lithologically distinct layers. Results, which indicate an excellent match between geology and porosity variograms, are summarized as follows: (1) use of stratigraphic distances resulted in considerable improvement in the behavior of variograms, (2) structurally controlled geometrical anisotropy is the most obvious feature of variograms, and (3) layers consisting of more complex lithologic framework provided variograms with relatively greater nugget variances and shorter ranges. These results provide further insight into geology and form a meaningful basis for estimation and simulation of the reservoir. They also could be used as a general guide in the geostatistical study of similar carbonate reservoirs.     

基于地质统计学与Surpac软件的夏甸金矿区矿化空间分析

矿区外围及深部的成矿预测需要对老矿区矿化空间分布进行定性分析,提取最有利的矿化指标,为控矿规律分析和成矿区圈定提供技术支持。文章以山东夏甸金矿床Ⅶ号矿体群为例,利用Surpac软件建立该矿区地质数据库,进行实验变异函数的计算与理论变异函数拟合,通过交叉验证,获取最优的搜索椭球体参数,构建搜索椭球体模型,揭示出矿体的矿化分布规律,最后在各三维坐标轴平面绘制矿化投影等值线图,直观地展示矿体内部金品位的连续方向,为矿化指标计算提供数据支撑。     

多物源条件下的储层地质建模方法

濮城沙三中油藏具有两个主物源,分别为NE向与SE向。油藏数值模拟需要在一套地质网格中对其进行模拟。经典的地质统计学利用变差函数描述区域化变量的空间几何结构特性。变差函数的计算是基于两点进行统计的,对其描述主要涉及方位角、变程、块金值和基台值。为了在一套模拟网格中模拟出多个物源条件下储层的分布特征,必须在不同的位置设置不同的变差函数参数。文中给出了两种方法实现这一目的:一是采用人为分区,把不同物源影响的区域分成不同的区块,分别对不同的区块设置不同的变差函数参数;二是采用变方位角,即根据不同的位置设置不同的变差函数方位角。这两种方法都实现了在一套网格中模拟具有多个物源方向的储层分布,更真实地再现了储层的空间展布特征。     

迎接油气储层建模理论、应用的大发展——从2007年国际石油地质统计学大会谈起

2007年国际石油地质统计学大会的成果表明,运用地质研究、地震解释、生产动态三方面的数据并与模型相结合,是当前油气储层建模理论和应用的一个发展趋势。油藏描述、油藏表征及储层建模发展的整个过程,始终体现了这种多学科的融合。由于地质统计学的促进,储层建模技术具备了分析和处理各种主要由地下地质环境引起的不确定性的能力。地质研究对储层建模的核心作用主要体现为相控建模原则的确立和地质概念模型的应用上。最后,研究了储层建模中地震数据的参与和生产动态数据的结合等方面的发展。     

Fractal and geostatistical methods for modeling of a fracture network

The modeling of fracture networks is useful for fluid flow and rock mechanics studies. About 6600 fracture traces were recorded on drifts of a uranium mine in a granite massif. The traces have an extension of 0.20–20 m. The network was studied by fractal and by geostatistical methods but can be considered neither as a fractal with a constant dimension nor a set of purely randomly located fractures. Two kinds of generalization of conventional models can still provide more flexibility for the characterization of the network: (a) a nonscaling fractal model with variable similarity dimension (for a 2-D network of traces, the dimension varying from 2 for the 10-m scale to 1 for the centimeter scale, (b) a parent-daughter model with a regionalized density; the geostatistical study allows a 3-D model to be established where: fractures are assumed to be discs; fractures are grouped in clusters or swarms; and fracturation density is regionalized (with two ranges at about 30 and 300 m). The fractal model is easy to fit and to simulate along a line, but 2-D and 3-D simulations are more difficult. The geostatistical model is more complex, but easy to simulate, even in 3-D.This paper was presented at Emerging Concepts, MGUS-87 Conference, Redwood City, California, 13–15 April 1987.     

Mapping Curvilinear Structures with Local Anisotropy Kriging

Interpolating geo-data with curvilinear structures using geostatistics is often disappointing. Channels, for example, become disconnected sets of lakes when interpolated from point data. In order to improve the interpolation of geological structures (e.g., curvilinear structures), we present a new form of kriging, local anisotropy kriging (LAK). Local anisotropy kriging combines a gradient algorithm from image analysis with kriging in an iterative way. After an initial standard kriging interpolation, the gradient algorithm determines the local anisotropy for each cell in the grid using a search area around the cell. Subsequently, kriging is carried out with the spatially varying anisotropy. The anisotropy calculation and subsequent kriging steps will then succeed until the result is satisfactory in the way of reproducing the curvilinear structures. Depending on the size of the search area more or less detail in the geological structures can be reproduced with LAK. Using test examples we show that LAK interpolates data with curvilinear structures more realistically than standard kriging. In a real world case, using bathymetric data of the Oosterschelde estuary, LAK also proves to be quantitatively superior to standard kriging. Absolute interpolation errors are decreased by 23%. Local anisotropy kriging only uses information from point data, which makes the method very objective, it only presents “what the data can tell.”     

Scale-dependent fractal dimensions of topographic surfaces: An empirical investigation, with applications in geomorphology and computer mapping

Fractional Brownian surfaces have been widely discussed as an appropriate model for the statistical behavior of topographic surfaces. The fractals model proposes that topographic surfaces are statistically self-similar, and that a single parameter, the fractal dimension, applies at all scales. This paper presents the results of empirical examinations of 17 topographic samples. Only one of these samples shows the statistical behavior predicted by the fractals model; however, in 15 of the 17 samples, the surfaces' variograms could be adequately described by ranges of scales having constant fractal dimension, separated by distinct scale breaks. For scale ranges between adjacent breaks, surface behavior should be that predicted by the fractals model; the breaks represent characteristic horizontal scales, at which surface behavior changes substantially. These scale breaks are especially important for cartographic representations and digital elevation models, since they represent scales at which there is a distinct change in the relation between sampling interval and the associated error.     

Anisotropic viscoplastic modeling of rate‐dependent behavior of clay

The objective of this study is to derive an effective stress‐based constitutive law capable of predicting rate‐dependent stress–strain, stress path and undrained shear strength and creep behavior. The flow rule used in the MIT‐E3 model and viscoplasticity theory is employed in the derivation. The model adopts the yield surface capable of representing the yield behavior of the Taipei silty clay and assumes that it is initially symmetric about the K₀‐line. A method is then developed to compute the gyration and expansion of the loading surface to simulate the anisotropic behavior due to the principal stress rotation after shear. There are 11 parameters required for the model to describe the soil behavior and six of them are exactly the same as those used in the Modified Cam‐clay model. The five additional parameters can be obtained by parametric studies or conventional soil tests, such as consolidation tests, triaxial compression and extension tests. Finally, verification of the model for the anisotropic behavior, creep behavior and the rate‐dependent undrained stress–strain and shear strength of the Taipei silty clay is conducted. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variograms with zonal anisotropies and noninvertible kriging systems

Zonal anisotropies are usually simply defined as those that are not geometric (i.e., that cannot be removed by an affine transformation). Such anisotropies have often been associated with zonations and models have been proposed to reflect that association. It is shown by example that such models can lead to noninvertible coefficient matrices in kriging systems, because the models are only (conditionally) semidefinite instead of positive definite. The relationship to the construction used in turning bands algorithm and also to spatial-temporal models is discussed.     

Importance of Orthogonalization Algorithm in Modeling Conditional Distributions by Orthogonal Transformed Indicator Methods

The orthogonal transformed indicator approach to conditional cumulative distribution functions is based on the decomposition of the indicator variogram matrix as a matrix product. This paper explores the manner in which the decomposition algorithm affects the conditional cumulative distribution function as estimated by orthogonal transformed indicator kriging. Five decomposition algorithms are considered: spectral, Cholesky, symmetric, Cholesky-spectral, and simultaneous decompositions. Impact of the algorithms on spatial orthogonality and order relations problems is examined and their performances together with indicator kriging are compared using a real dataset.     

Significance of conditioning to piezometric head data for predictions of mass transport in groundwater modeling

Transmissivity and head data are sampled from an exhaustive synthetic reference field and used to predict the arrival positions and arrival times of a number of particles transported across the field, together with an uncertainty estimate. Different combinations of number of transmissivity data and number of head data used are considered in each one of a series of 64 Monte-Carlo analyses. In each analysis, 250 realizations of transmissivity fields conditioned to both transmissivity and head data are generated using a novel geostatistically based inverse method. Pooling the solutions of the flow and transport equations in all 250 realizations allows building conditional frequency distributions for particle arrival positions and arrival times. By comparing these fresquency distributions, we can assess the incremental gain that additional head data provide. The main conclusion is that the first few head data dramatically improve the quality of transport predictions.     

To be or not to be... stationary? That is the question

Stationarity in one form or another is an essential characteristic of the random function in the practice of geostatistics. Unfortunately it is a term that is both misunderstood and misused. While this presentation will not lay to rest all ambiguities or disagreements, it provides an overview and attempts to set a standard terminology so that all practitioners may communicate from a common basis. The importance of stationarity is reviewed and examples are given to illustrate the distinctions between the different forms of stationarity.     

An application of cokriging for estimation of tripartite earthquake response spectra

A tripartite earthquake response spectrum exhibits peak values of acceleration, velocity, and displacement in concert, each as a function of natural frequency of vibration. Because cokriging is a regionalized variable technique for multiple variable estimation, it was employed to jointly estimate peak values of acceleration, velocity, and displacement through a frequency discretization process. The objective of this application was to develop a technique for estimation of response spectra at uninstrumented locations. Because magnitudes of the three response variables differed, these data were normalized prior to cokriging. This process simply involved dividing each type of variable by its maximum value for a given frequency; hence, values of each type of variable ranged between zero and one. This allowed better accuracy in developing cross-variograms. Cokriging proved to be an efficient and accurate technique to use for the estimation of tripartite response spectra.     

基于地质统计学方法的孔压静力触探锥尖阻力固有空间变异性研究

地质统计学是用于模拟土体固有空间变异性的方法之一,以变差函数为工具,采用Kriging插值提供未采样点处土工参数值的最优线性无偏估计。将地质统计学方法应用于宿-新（宿迁至新沂）高速公路某试验段内孔压静力触探（piezocone penetration test,CPTU）锥尖阻力qt空间变异性研究中,采用回归分析移除数据中的趋势项,从而获得具有弱平稳性的残差数据。指数型理论变差函数能够准确描述试验段内土体的连续空间变异性特征。根据估计结果,试验段内锥尖阻力qt残差的变程具有显著各向异性,在水平方向和竖直方向分别为4.05 m和1.2 m。采用普通Kriging插值结合趋势分析,绘制了qt在试验段的空间分布图和平面投影图,用于指导工程实践。结果表明,普通Kriging插值的估计结果能够与试验段内实测资料形成较好的对比,仅仅在部分极值变化和远离采样点的位置处估计值可靠性会降低。     

二态序列变差函数的定理及初步地质应用

提出并证明了一个关于二态序列变差函数的定理,即二元平稳标准化正态序列的变差函数与其以零为水平的0—1二元序列变差函数的关系式。该定理为通过对定性地质变量的空间序列变异性研究以达到对原定量地质变量空间变异性的研究提供了可能与方便。文中进行了数字仿真分析,并提供了一个地质方面的初步应用。     

Anisotropic path modeling to assess pedestrian-evacuation potential from Cascadia-related tsunamis in the US Pacific Northwest

Recent disasters highlight the threat that tsunamis pose to coastal communities. When developing tsunami-education efforts and vertical-evacuation strategies, emergency managers need to understand how much time it could take for a coastal population to reach higher ground before tsunami waves arrive. To improve efforts to model pedestrian evacuations from tsunamis, we examine the sensitivity of least-cost-distance models to variations in modeling approaches, data resolutions, and travel-rate assumptions. We base our observations on the assumption that an anisotropic approach that uses path-distance algorithms and accounts for variations in land cover and directionality in slope is the most realistic of an actual evacuation landscape. We focus our efforts on the Long Beach Peninsula in Washington (USA), where a substantial residential and tourist population is threatened by near-field tsunamis related to a potential Cascadia subduction zone earthquake. Results indicate thousands of people are located in areas where evacuations to higher ground will be difficult before arrival of the first tsunami wave. Deviations from anisotropic modeling assumptions substantially influence the amount of time likely needed to reach higher ground. Across the entire study, changes in resolution of elevation data has a greater impact on calculated travel times than changes in land-cover resolution. In particular areas, land-cover resolution had a substantial impact when travel-inhibiting waterways were not reflected in small-scale data. Changes in travel-speed parameters had a substantial impact also, suggesting the importance of public-health campaigns as a tsunami risk-reduction strategy.     

The effects of sampling design parameters on block selection

Cost-effective spatial sampling strategy requires balancing sampling costs with the expected benefits from improved information. A contaminated site numerical model was used to test various single-phase sampling schemes, which were evaluated based on the quality of block selections from interpolated values. Different sample set sizes, different sampling patterns, and two levels of sampling precision were used. The sample set size was the only one of these factors observed to be significant. Bias was also examined. Modest levels (<20%) had minimal impact; the effects of higher levels of bias varied with the selection level concentration.Although the research described in this article has been supported by the United States Environmental Protection Agency through cooperative agreement CR814701 to the Environmental Research Center of the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, it has not been subjected to Agency review and, therefore, does not necessarily reflect the view of the Agency and no official endorsement should be inferred.     

Geostatistical case studies of the advantages of lognormal-de Wijsian kriging with mean for a base metal mine and a gold mine

Parallel variogram analyses, block kriging, and follow-up studies were effected for the lead content of part of the Prieska copper-zinc ore body and for the gold content of the highly variable Breef in a section of the Loraine gold mine, based first on untransformed values and second on logarithmically transformed values using the lognormal-de Wijsian model. For both models the effect was also analyzed of using the population mean or ignoring it. Practical follow-up comparisons confirm theoretical considerations and show that on these mines conditional biases can be eliminated conveniently by kriging with mean; also that the lognormal-de Wijsian model with mean gives the best results.