The impact of sea level rise and climate change on inshore wave climate: A case study for East Anglia (UK)

In coastal areas, offshore wave propagation towards the shore is influenced by water depth variations, due to sea bed bathymetry, tides and surges. Considering implications of climate change both on atmospheric forcing and sea level rise, a simple methodology involving numerical modelling is implemented to compute inshore waves from 1960 to 2099. Simulations take into account five scenarios of linear sea level rise and one climatic scenario for storm surges and offshore waves. The methodology is applied to the East Anglia coast (UK). Extreme event analysis is performed to estimate climate change implication on inshore waves and the occurrence of extreme events. It is shown, for this coastal region, that wave statistics are sensitive to the trend in sea level rise, and that the climate change scenario leads to a significant increase of extreme wave heights in the northern part of the domain. For nearshore points, the increase of the mean sea level alters not only extreme wave heights but also the frequency of occurrence of extreme wave conditions.     

Wind Farm Support Vessel Extreme Roll Assessment While Docking in the Bohai Sea

Robust prediction of extreme motions during wind farm support vessel(WFSV)operation is an important safety concern that requires further extensive research as offshore wind energy industry sector widens.In particular,it is important to study the safety of operation in random sea conditions during WFSV docking against the wind tower,while workers are able to get on the tower.Docking is performed by thrusting vessel fender against wind tower(an alternative docking way by hinging is not studied here).In this paper,the finite element software AQWA has been used to analyze vessel response due to hydrodynamic wave loads,acting on a specific maintenance ship under actual sea conditions.Excessive roll may occur during certain sea conditions,especially in the beam sea,posing a risk to the crew transfer operation.The Bohai Sea is the area of diverse industrial activities such as offshore oil production,wave and wind power generation,etc.This paper advocates a novel method for estimating extreme roll statistics,based on Monte Carlo simulations(or measurements).The ACER(averaged conditional exceedance rate)method and its modification are presented in brief detail in Appendix.The proposed methodology provides an accurate extreme value prediction,utilizing available data efficiently.In this study the estimated return level values,obtained by ACER method,are compared with the corresponding return level values obtained by Gumbel method.Based on the overall performance of the proposed method,it is concluded that the ACER method can provide more robust and accurate prediction of the extreme vessel roll.The described approach may be well used at the vessel design stage,while defining optimal boat parameters would minimize potential roll.     

Extreme response prediction for nonlinear floating offshore structures by Monte Carlo simulation

The paper describes a method for the prediction of extreme response statistics of floating offshore structures subjected to random seas by Monte Carlo simulation. The particular case of the horizontal surge motions of a tension leg platform is considered, taking into account both the first order, wave frequency and the second order, slow-drift motions. The advantage of the Monte Carlo method is its simplicity and versatility, which allows us to account for the effect of time-variant wave-drift damping, as well as nonlinear mooring characteristics without noticeable increase in the computational complexity. It is demonstrated in this paper that the commonly assumed obstacle against using the Monte Carlo method for estimating extreme responses, i.e. excessive CPU time, can be circumvented, bringing the computation time down to quite acceptable levels.     

Estimation of extreme slamming pressures using the non-uniform Fourier phase distributions of a design loads generator

Slamming pressures are predicted using a nonlinear ship motion program whose input is an ensemble of short wave trains tailored to produce a large, linear pitch response. These short wave trains are calculated via a design methodology that first creates short time series containing a specified, large ship response and then back-calculates the incident wave trains using linear systems theory. The background simulations and theory used to create these short time series are presented here. Monte Carlo simulation of moderately rare events of a random process indicate the random Fourier component phase PDFs are non-uniform, non-identically distributed, and dependent on the rarity of the target event. These PDFs are modeled using a single parameter, Modified Gaussian distribution and used to generate design time series with a given expected value at a specific time. To predict rare events without resorting to Monte Carlo simulation, the parameters of the Modified Gaussian distributions are calculated via characteristic function comparison. The characteristic functions compare a target PDF calculated from extreme value theory to a PDF based on a discrete Fourier representation of the stochastic process with non-uniform component phases. The comparison to extreme value theory helps to quantify the risk associated with rare events.     

Extreme value prediction via a quantile function model

Methods for estimating extreme loads are used in design as well as risk assessment. Regression using maximum likelihood or least squares estimation is widely used in a univariate analysis but these methods favour solutions that fit observations in an average sense. Here we describe a new technique for estimating extremes using a quantile function model. A quantile of a distribution is most commonly termed a ‘return level’ in flood risk analysis. The quantile function of a random variable is the inverse function of its distribution function. Quantile function models are different from the conventional regression models, because a quantile function model estimates the quantiles of a variable conditional on some other variables, while a regression model studies the conditional mean of a variable. So quantile function models allow us to study the whole conditional distribution of a variable via its quantile function, whereas conventional regression models represent the average behaviour of a variable.Little work can be found in the literature about prediction from a quantile function model. This paper proposes a prediction method for quantile function models. We also compare different types of statistical models using sea level observations from Venice. Our study shows that quantile function models can be used to estimate directly the relationships between sea condition variables, and also to predict critical quantiles of a sea condition variable conditional on others. Our results show that the proposed quantile function model and the developed prediction method have the potential to be very useful in practice.     

A Global Refiability Assessment Method on Aging Offshore Platforms with Corrosion and Cracks

Corrosion and fatigue cracks are major threats to the structural integrity of aging offshore platforms.For the rational estimation of the safety levels of aging platforms,a global reliability assessment approach for aging offshore platforms with corrosion and fatigue cracks is presented in this paper.The base shear capacity is taken as the global ultimate strength of the offshore plaffoms,it is modeled as a random process that decreases with time in the presence of corrosion and fatigue crack propagation.And the corrosion and fatigue crack growth rates in the main members and key joints are modeled as random variables.A simulation method of the extreme wave loads which are applied to the structures of offshore platforms is proposed too.Furthermore,the statistics of global base shear capacity and extreme wave loads are obtained by Monte Carlo simulation method.On the basis of the limit state equation of global failure mode,the instantaneous reliability and time dependent reliability assessment methods are both presented in this paper.Finally the instantaueous reliability index and time dependent failure probability of a jacket platform are estimated with different ages in the demonstration example.     

Efficient estimation of extreme response of drag-dominated offshore structures by Monte Carlo simulation

The paper describes a novel approach to the problem of estimating the extreme response statistics of a drag-dominated offshore structure exhibiting a pronounced dynamic behaviour when subjected to harsh weather conditions. It is shown that the key quantity for extreme response prediction is the mean upcrossing rate function, which can be simply extracted from simulated response time histories. A commonly adopted practice for obtaining adequate extremes for design purposes requires the execution of 20 or more 3-h time domain analyses for several extreme sea states. For early phase considerations, it would be convenient if extremes of a reasonable accuracy could be obtained based on shorter and fewer simulations. The aim of the work reported in the present paper has therefore been to develop specific methods which make it possible to extract the necessary information about the extreme response from relatively short time histories.The method proposed in this paper opens up the possibility to predict simply and efficiently both short-term and long-term extreme response statistics. The results presented are based on extensive simulation results for the Kvitebjørn jacket structure, in operation on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. Specifically, deck response time histories for different sea states simulated from an MDOF model were used as the basis for our analyses.     

中国近海海表温度变化的极端特性及其气候特征研究

本文基于1982–2017年日再分析数据,分析了中国近海海表温度变化的极端特性、历史演变、空间格局及可能影响,并探讨了与全球变化和区域气候变率的关联性。近30多年来,中国近海海表总体升温明显,尤以春季长江口附近及以南的外部近岸海域升温最为显著,线性升温速率高达0.2°C/(10 a)。相比而言,沿岸海域对气候变暖暂缓的响应可能更为明显;极端高(低)温强度以显著增强(减弱)为主,尤以春(夏)季幅度最大。沿岸海域春季极值温差增强显著,易通过物候变化引起生物迁移和赤潮等生态灾害突发、频发;北部海域极端事件持续天数大于南部,其中,黄海、东海极端高温持续天数增加显著,可能对渔业资源产生较大影响。受气候变暖暂缓影响,极端低温持续天数亦显著增加;极端高温在长江口附近,台湾海峡和南海北部等海域累积频次上升显著,未来极端海洋热浪事件可能持续增加,将对南海珊瑚礁等产生较大影响。极端低温累积频次以显著降低为主。然而长江口及以南沿岸极端低温在冬春季增强明显,可能对红树林等产生一定影响;太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)暖位相期间,ENSO暖事件得到增强,易引起中国近海海表极端低温的频发。北极涛动(AO)正位相时,限制了极区冷空气向南扩展,中国近海海表极端高温频次趋于增加,其危险性增强。     

Prediction of short-term distributions of load extremes of offshore wind turbines

This paper proposes a new methodology to select an optimal threshold level to be used in the peak over threshold (POT) method for the prediction of short-term distributions of load extremes of offshore wind turbines. Such an optimal threshold level is found based on the estimation of the variance-to-mean ratio for the occurrence of peak values, which characterizes the Poisson assumption. A generalized Pareto distribution is then fitted to the extracted peaks over the optimal threshold level and the distribution parameters are estimated by the method of the maximum spacing estimation. This methodology is applied to estimate the short-term distributions of load extremes of the blade bending moment and the tower base bending moment at the mudline of a monopile-supported 5MW offshore wind turbine as an example. The accuracy of the POT method using the optimal threshold level is shown to be better, in terms of the distribution fitting, than that of the POT methods using empirical threshold levels. The comparisons among the short-term extreme response values predicted by using the POT method with the optimal threshold levels and with the empirical threshold levels and by using direct simulation results further substantiate the validity of the proposed new methodology.     

极端荷载作用下海洋导管架平台体系可靠度分析

采用非线性倒塌分析方法，考虑桩－土－结构的非线性相互作用，研究了导管架平台在极端荷载作用下承载能力的计算模型，分析了平台结构体系在极端荷载作用下的全倒塌全过程，在此基础上，结合蒙特卡洛法，提出了海洋导管架平台结构的体系可靠度计算方法。最后对工程实例－涠11－4C海洋平台的结构进行了体系可靠性分析，并对比分析了不同的荷载效应计算公式对计算经的影响，研究表明计算经满足工程设计要求，便于工程应用。     

Sea level changes south of Japan associated with the non-large-meander path of the Kuroshio

Sea levels south of Japan from 1964 to 1975 are examined in terms of the nearshore and offshore non-large-meander (NLM) paths of the Kuroshio and the transitions between them.The sea-level anomalies from the annual variations on the south coast of Japan are much larger during the transition from the nearshore to offshore NLM paths than during the reverse transition by 9 cm on average. This characteristic can be seen only in the coastal region of the Kuroshio-flowing area, so that the sea-level difference of Naze minus Nishinoomote (indicator of Kuroshio velocity) during the offshore to nearshore transition is larger by 15 cm than during the reverse transition.The transition from the offshore to nearshore NLM paths occurs when the velocity of the Kuroshio is large or increasing, while the nearshore to offshore transition occurs when it is small or decreasing. The former transition occurs whenever the velocity increases greatly, whereas the latter one does not always occur even though the velocity decreases.The sea-level difference between Kushimoto and Uragami is highly coherent with the alternate appearance of the nearshore and offshore NLM paths. Offshore NLM paths longer than 2.5 months appear during large falls of the sea-level difference of Kushimoto minus Uragami, while large rises of the sea-level difference correspond to long-lasting nearshore NLM paths. The mean sea-level difference during the nearshore NLM path is larger by 4 cm than that during the offshore NLM path.     

聚焦波作用下平面网衣结构的水动力特性研究

由于沿海区域的限制以及愈加严重的环境污染,渔业养殖正从近海走向深远海。深远海海域的海况更加恶劣,给养殖装备的设计与性能评估带来新的挑战。为解决该问题,对极端波浪与养殖装备网衣结构的相互作用开展研究。基于waves2Foam建立数值波浪水池,极端波浪模拟采用基于NewWave理论的聚焦波模型,网衣结构模拟采用多孔介质模型,并通过与Morison模型计算的网衣受力等效分析,获得多孔介质模拟网衣结构阻力系数的直接估计方法。然后将多孔介质模型嵌入waves2Foam中,开展聚焦波与网衣结构相互作用的数值模拟,同时开展水槽试验,验证数值模拟的准确性。基于数值模拟结果,系统地分析了不同网衣密实度及不同波浪参数下网衣结构的升阻力特性以及网衣结构对波浪场的扰动规律。研究表明：聚焦波波峰幅值和网衣密实度对网衣结构的升阻力影响较大,且升力峰值出现在阻力为0的时刻;网衣结构对聚焦波的时空演化特性有影响,改变了聚焦波波形。     

Transition processes between the three typical paths of the Kuroshio

Transitions between the three typical paths of the Kuroshio south of Japan (the nearshore and offshore non-large-meander paths and the large-meander path) are described using sea level data at Miyake-jima and HachijÔ-jima in the Izu Islands and temperature data at a depth of 200 m observed from 1964 to 1975 and in 1980.In transitions between the nearshore and offshore non-large-meander paths the variation of the Kuroshio path occurs first in the region off Enshû-nada between the Kii Peninsula and the Izu Ridge and subsequently over the ridge. In the nearshore to offshore transition the offshore displacement of the path occurs first off Enshû-nada and then develops southeastwardly in the direction of HachijÔ-jima. In the reverse transition shoreward displacement occurs first off Enshû-nada and then throughout the region west and east of the Izu Ridge. The position of the Kuroshio south of Cape Shiono-misaki (the southernmost tip of the Kii Peninsula) is almost fixed near the coast throughout these transition periods, and significant variations of the Kuroshio path only occur east of the cape. The nearshore to offshore and offshore to nearshore transitions can be estimated to take about 25 and 35 days, respectively, during which the variation of the Kuroshio path over the Izu Ridge occurs for the last 11 and 25 days.The transitions between the non-large-meander and large-meander paths show that the large-meander path is mostly formed from the nearshore non-large-meander path and always changes to the offshore non-large-meander path.     

极端海洋环境对海洋平台疲劳寿命的影响

基于渤海和南海的海洋平台设计环境条件,分析了近年来我国近海极端海洋环境条件的发生规律及其对海洋平台疲劳设计条件的冲击。采用Miner’s线性累积疲劳损伤准则和疲劳可靠性理论,研究了极端海况引起的疲劳损伤对海洋平台疲劳寿命的影响,提出了考虑极端海洋环境条件的海洋平台疲劳设计方法。研究表明,由于近年来全球气候变换带来的极端气象条件频发,导致海洋工程结构经历传统意义上的多年一遇海洋环境条件的概率大大增加,使得现行的海洋平台疲劳设计条件偏离了实际的海洋环境条件。数值算例表明,极端海况引起的疲劳损伤在总的疲劳损伤的比例大大增加,甚至成为疲劳损伤的主要部分。因此,这些极端海况引起的疲劳损伤对结构疲劳寿命的影响不容忽略,考虑极端海洋环境条件的海洋平台疲劳设计符合近年来的灾害性海况频发的现状。     

日本南部黑潮与黑潮延伸体路径状态关联性的定量分析

日本南部黑潮存在多种路径模态:近岸非大弯曲路径、离岸非大弯曲路径和大弯曲路径。黑潮延伸体的路径存在两种典型模态:收缩态和伸展态。从地理位置看, 日本南部黑潮和黑潮延伸体是相邻的, 但它们的路径状态是否存在关联一直存在争议。本文基于卫星观测的海表高度资料和长期的海洋高分辨率再分析资料, 对日本南部黑潮和黑潮延伸体路径状态之间的关联性进行定量分析, 结果表明:日本南部黑潮和黑潮延伸体的路径状态存在一定的关联。当日本南部黑潮处于近岸非大弯曲和大弯曲路径时, 黑潮延伸体主要处于伸展态; 当日本南部黑潮处于离岸非大弯曲时, 黑潮延伸体处于伸展态和收缩态的比例相当。进一步分析表明, 黑潮流轴处于伊豆海脊的位置部分决定了上述关系, 可能存在其他因素调制了两者的关联性。     

Fatigue damage in randomly vibrating jack-up platforms under non-Gaussian loads

The problem of fatigue damage estimation of ageing jack-up platforms is considered, using theories of random processes. The sea-wave excitations are modelled as stationary, Gaussian random processes, with specified power spectral density function. The loads acting on the structure due to the sea waves is calculated using Morison’s equation and are therefore non-Gaussian whose probabilistic properties are not available in explicit form. Assuming linear structure behaviour, the probabilistic properties of the structure response are determined using theories of random vibrations. The simple peak counting method is adopted for estimating the mean fatigue damage. This requires knowledge of the joint probability density function of the structure response and its first and second time derivatives, at the same time instant. A methodology has been presented for developing analytical expressions for this joint pdf. This requires evaluation of multidimensional integrals. A recently developed computational algorithm is presented to deal with integrals for which derivation of closed form analytical expressions may not be feasible. The methodology proposed in this paper provides an alternative and computationally cheaper technique for estimating the fatigue damage in comparison to the Monte Carlo simulation procedure. Numerical results have been presented for illustration of the proposed methodology.     

Bayesian inference for long-term prediction of significant wave height

This paper considers the problem of estimating long-term predictions of significant wave-height. A method which combines Bayesian methodology and extreme value techniques is adopted. Inferences are based on the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm implemented in an appropriate Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme. The method is applied to obtain return values of extreme values of significant wave height collected on the northern North Sea. The results are compared with those obtained by Guedes Soares and Scotto [Guedes Soares, C. and Scotto, M.G., 2004. Application of the r-order statistics for long-term predictions of significant wave heights. Coastal Engineering, 51, 387–394].     

Long-term response analysis of FPSO mooring systems

The design of mooring systems for floating production units usually considers extreme environmental conditions as a primary design parameter. However, in the case of FPSO (Floating, Production, Storage and Offloading) units, the worst response for the mooring system may be associated with other sea state conditions due to the fact that its extreme response may be associated with a resonant period instead of an extreme wave height. The best way to deal with this problem is by performing long-term analysis in order to obtain extreme response estimates. This procedure is computationally very demanding, since many short-term environmental conditions, and their associated stochastic nonlinear time domain numerical simulations of the mooring lines, are required to obtain such estimates. A simplified approach for the long-term analysis is the environmental contour-line design approach. In this paper a Monte Carlo-based integration procedure combined with an interpolation scheme to obtain the parameters of the short-term response distribution is employed to hasten the long-term analysis. Numerical simulations are carried out for an FPSO at three different locations considering a North Sea joint probability distribution for the environmental parameters. The long-term analysis results are compared against those obtained using extreme environmental conditions and environmental contour-line methodology. These results represent the characteristic load effect for the design of mooring systems of floating units using the reliability analysis for mooring line. The results show that the long-term results are usually more critical than those obtained with the other approaches and even different mooring lines can be identified as the critical ones.     

Automated threshold selection methods for extreme wave analysis

The study of the extreme values of a variable such as wave height is very important in flood risk assessment and coastal design. Often values above a sufficiently large threshold can be modelled using the Generalized Pareto Distribution, the parameters of which are estimated using maximum likelihood. There are several popular empirical techniques for choosing a suitable threshold, but these require the subjective interpretation of plots by the user.In this paper we present a pragmatic automated, simple and computationally inexpensive threshold selection method based on the distribution of the difference of parameter estimates when the threshold is changed, and apply it to a published rainfall and a new wave height data set. We assess the effect of the uncertainty associated with our threshold selection technique on return level estimation by using the bootstrap procedure. We illustrate the effectiveness of our methodology by a simulation study and compare it with the approach used in the JOINSEA software. In addition, we present an extension that allows the threshold selected to depend on the value of a covariate such as the cosine of wave direction.     

大风事件对长江口及邻近海域海-气CO2通量的影响

依托2017年8月23日至2017年9月6日在长江口及邻近海域连续走航测得的二氧化碳分压(pCO₂)值,结合温度、盐度、溶解氧等数据,阐述该海域pCO₂的分布特征,并利用一次大风事件前后一个断面的重复观测数据,讨论天气事件对长江口海-气CO₂通量的影响。夏季长江口及邻近海域表层海水pCO₂范围为145~929 μatm,总体呈近岸高远岸低的分布特征,在受长江冲淡水影响的区域,海表pCO₂较低,整体表现为大气CO₂的汇。大风事件(最大风速达9.7 m·s^-1)加强了水体的垂直混合,导致近岸区域从大气CO₂的弱源变为强源(CO₂通量从0.2±1.9上升到 55.0±12.4 mmol·m^-2·d^-1),而远岸区域的碳汇略有加强(CO₂通量从-12.7±2.3变为-16.8±2.5 mmol·m^-2·d^-1)。因此,在估算东海海-气CO₂通量时,台风、冷空气等短时间尺度天气事件的影响也不容忽视。