The influence of tropical sea surface temperatures and precipitation on north Pacific atmospheric blocking

Blocking is a major component of the extratropical climate and any changes in it would be a very important aspect of climate change there. Previous studies have shown that mid-latitude variability such as blocking is sensitive to tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and to variations in tropical precipitation. Climate models exhibit a wide range of skill in representing blocking, with all models having deficiencies in certain respects. In addition, coupled climate models often exhibit significant biases in both tropical precipitation and tropical and extratropical SSTs. This suggests that tropical systematic biases in coupled climate models may influence the representation of blocking and its sensitivity to climate change. We examine the relationship between winter north Pacific blocking and tropical precipitation and tropical SSTs through the use of idealised SST anomaly experiments. We find that interannual variations in convection over the Maritime Continent and eastern equatorial Pacific regions both influence the central and eastern Pacific winter blocking frequency. In addition, systematic underestimation of tropical rainfall over the Maritime Continent region in climate models can lead to underestimation of time-mean winter Pacific blocking. Finally, the sign, magnitude and variability of tropical SST biases in a coupled model, and their associated effects on tropical precipitation, could influence its representation of northern hemisphere blocking, and thus affect its ability to represent this mode of remotely-forced mid-latitude variability. These results have important implications for model development.     

阻塞过程中正斜压涡度拟能相互转换机制的重要性

使用正斜压涡度拟能方程对一次乌拉尔山阻塞过程的研究表明，虽然正、斜压涡度拟能向阻塞区内的净输送、阻塞区域内正斜压涡度拟能的净生成以及β效应是阻塞环流建立、维持和崩溃的基本能源，但正斜压涡度拟能相互转换机制则是阻塞过程得以形成的根本原因。如果没有正斜压涡度拟能相互转化机制，则阻塞环流不但不能形成，反而使大气的斜压性不断增强，正压性不断减弱。     

北半球冬季各阻塞系统对大范围极端温度异常的单独和协同影响

利用ERA5逐日再分析资料集,探究了冬季（12月至次年2月）大尺度阻塞与东亚寒潮的关系,发现近年来冬季大尺度阻塞与寒潮频次的年际相关有增强趋势,其中乌拉尔山大尺度阻塞与寒潮频次的年际相关最为显著,鄂霍次克海大尺度阻塞与寒潮频次的相关最弱。选取乌拉尔山和贝加尔湖区域大尺度阻塞后10 d内有寒潮爆发和无寒潮爆发的事件进一步统计分析,发现乌拉尔山区域发生大尺度阻塞时,阻塞后有（无）寒潮的事件在中高纬度行星波向平流层上传加强（减弱）,导致平流层极涡减弱（显著加强）。波活动响应的主要贡献来自于行星纬向1波。而（50°—70°N ,90°—110°E）位势高度在阻塞发生后逐渐加强（减弱）,最终导致寒潮爆发（未爆发）。贝加尔湖区域发生大尺度阻塞时的情况与乌拉尔山区域基本一致,但1990—2019年阻塞后有寒潮事件时行星纬向2波比纬向1波起更重要的作用。     

Radon measurements as an aid to the interpretation of atmospheric monitoring

Radon has been measured continuously at Cape Grim, Tasmania with a detection limit of about 0.05 Bq m^-3 (1.4 pCi m^-3). The annual average level from a close continental source is 3.8 Bq m^-3, whereas the level in maritime air streams is typically 0.5 Bq m^-3. The contribution of the ocean is about 0.04 Bq m^-3, which indicates that more than 90% of radon in maritime air is from a continent. Thus radon can provide much less equivocal evidence of the degree of continental influence on an air stream than can other atmospheric constituents, whose sources and loss mechanisms are more complex. A knowledge of the past history of an air stream is important in the interpretation of atmospheric measurements.There is a close correlation between low radon and low Aitken particle concentrations, which suggests a continental origin for these particles. On the basis of present data it is difficult to reconcile this with evidence that the particles are generated photochemically over the ocean. An extension of the radon program to other latitudes would help to resolve this discrepancy.     

2003年夏季淮河流域梅雨期西太平洋副高结构和活动特征及动力机制分析

通过资料分析和诊断, 揭示了在2003年6～7月淮河流域暴雨期间, 西太平洋副高相对偏北并且呈现南北变化相对稳定、东西变化明显的特征; 强劲而稳定少动的中纬度西风急流使得西太平洋副高难以北抬, 从而造成了淮河流域降雨带的稳定少动. 同时, 分析表明每一次雨锋的出现伴有高层南亚高压的东伸, 并诱发500 hPa西太平洋副高西伸至我国沿海, 导致淮河流域多雨, 江南干旱高温.分析还发现高、低空副热带高压影响天气系统发展的如下机制: (1) 沿30°N东伸的高层南亚高压脊在东部30°N以北地区引起辐散和上升, 在30°N以南地区引起辐合和下沉; (2) 江南高层的辐合下沉气流在中低空的辐散增强了局地的负涡度, 诱发西太平洋副高西伸; (3) 沿增强了的西太平洋副高西北侧的偏西南气流在30°N以北辐合, 增强了局地的上升运动, 为暴雨的产生创造了大尺度的背景流场; (4) 副高西北侧的暴雨加强了低空的南风和高层的北风, 从而使高层东伸的南亚高压和低层西伸的西太平洋副高在我国东部稳定维持.     

夏季亚洲阻塞高压识别及其对中国东北气候异常的可能影响:不同再分析资料对比

基于阻塞高压（阻高）客观识别方法,利用1979-2016年夏季（6-8月）NCEP-Ⅰ、NCEP-Ⅱ逐日再分析资料和ERA-interim逐6 h再分析资料对识别结果进行对比分析;并以D类（130°-160°E）阻高为例,讨论其对6月中国东北地区气候的可能影响。结果表明:NCEP-Ⅰ和NCEP-Ⅱ再分析资料对阻高活动天数、发生频次及年代际变化的识别结果差异较小,而ERA-interim与前两种资料的结果差别较大。3种再分析资料下,夏季各类阻高活动天数均与500 hPa高度场存在相应的显著相关区,且形态相近。但前两种资料对于各类阻高的表征结果较为一致,而ERA-interim再分析资料对各类阻高面积和范围的表征偏小。6月D类阻高活动日数与东北地区气温和降水关系密切,D类阻高活跃年,大气环流以经向型为主,东北地区低层低温、暖平流,高层高温、冷平流的结构指示大气层结不稳定,且东北上空为异常低压环流控制,上升气流较强,有利于6月东北地区出现低温多雨天气。鄂霍次克海地区是6月罗斯贝波的重要来源地之一,而6月D类阻高的形成可能与海-陆温差有关。      

2008年1月欧亚阻塞形势的ECMWF集合预报效果评估检验

基于欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)集合预报系统资料,评估和讨论了2008年1月我国南方发生严重冰冻雨雪灾害期间欧亚中高纬阻塞形势的预报效果。结果表明,2008年1月阻塞形势发生频率极端偏高,ECMWF集合预报的阻塞发生频率随着预报时效的延长逐渐降低。环流预报效果检验表明,预报时效大于6 d时,集合平均的预报效果好于确定性预报,因此集合预报的优势主要体现在中期预报时段。对阻塞形势的可预报性的分析表明,阻塞崩溃期间的可预报性低于阻塞建立期间。另外,通过集合预报可以获得阻塞发生的概率,从而提前为预报员提供可能发生阻塞的信号。     

1998年夏第二阶段梅雨期乌拉尔山阻塞形势的维持

１９９８年夏季长江流域发生了近５０年来最严重的洪水。洪水形成最直接、最主要的原因是梅雨异常。异常梅雨的形成与东亚夏季风偏弱及热带外环流持续异常有关，其中一个明显特征是乌拉尔山地区长时间维持阻塞形势。本文结合诊断分析和数值试验，从瞬变对基本流的强迫（大气内部强迫）及热带热源强迫（外源强迫）两方面，分析了与第二段梅雨相对应的乌拉尔长时间阻塞的维持机制。利用共轭敏感性分析方法，计算了最有利于乌拉尔阻塞发展和维持的敏感扰动，发现扰动的分布位置，刚好与观测到的，从东大西洋到欧洲区域的异常增强的瞬变活动区相重叠。Ｅ矢量及斜压线性静止波模式的诊断进一步表明，异常期间的增强瞬变活动有利于乌拉尔出现正高度异常。计算了持续异常期间的高空急流及大气加热场，发现北美到大西洋的高空急流及热带加热都出现明显异常。中期天气预报模式 ＩＡＰ Ｔ４２Ｌ９的集合预报试验表明，热带地区的加热异常，尤其是热带中西太平洋和大西洋的加热异常，有利于乌拉尔正高度异常的形成。最后，提出了一种热带异常热源驱动下，瞬变波与定常波双向相互作用的阻塞形成与自维持的可能机制。     

近50年华北干旱的年代际和年际变化及大气环流特征

利用1948～2000年NCEP/NCAR再分析逐日及月平均位势高度、风、温度、垂直速度等物理量和中国气温、降水资料,分析近50年中国华北地区干旱的年代际、年际变化及其环流特征,并探讨1999和2000年华北地区持续干旱环流型及其成因.研究指出:20世纪80年代以来华北地区降水持续偏少,干旱强度有所增加,这与夏季200 hPa矢量风距平场亚洲中纬度西风环流加强,850 hPa风矢量距平场中国东部110～120°E范围内偏南气流比气候平均状况偏弱有关.夏季华北降水偏少的一种主要大气环流型是:500hPa位势高度场上40～50°N的欧亚大陆位势高度偏高并叠加欧亚(EU)遥相关型,华北大部分地区受高压控制.1999和2000年夏华北地区持续严重干旱的主要环流特征是:亚洲大陆高压持续发展、长期维持并相当稳定,华北地区上空受闭合暖性高压控制,高空暖性高压气流强烈下沉,引起空气绝热增温,近地面感热增加使得干旱区气温升高,下垫面非绝热强迫作用与大陆暖高压加强形成正反馈过程.     

The role of topography and diabatic heating in the formation of dipole blocking in the atmosphere

In this paper, the nonlinear stationary waves forced by topography and diabatic heating are investigated. It is pointed out that (1) the nonlinear interaction of different stationary waves forced only by topography might form dipole blocking in the atmosphere, this might explain the dipole blocking appeared in the Pacific and Atlantic regions; (2) the dipole blocking could not be caused by the nonlinear interaction of the different stationary waves forced by the diabatic heating alone; (3) the nonlinear interaction of the diffferent stationary waves forced by both topography and diabatic heating could initiate dipole blocking in the atmosphere. In winter, the dipole blocking mainly occurs in the west regions of the Pacific and the Atlantic, and the heat source over the western part of the two oceans is advantageous to the formation of dipole blocking in the west of two oceans. However, in summer, the dipole blocking could be formed in the east part of the two oceans, and the heat source over the eastern part of two continents is favourable for the formation of dipole blocking in the east regions of two oceans.     

2008年1月中国南方低温雨雪期间异常阻塞高压事件的多尺度动力过程分析

2008年1月,中国南方发生了罕见的低温雨雪灾害,造成这次灾害的关键系统之一是乌拉尔山以东地区的异常阻塞高压(阻高)。基于NCEP再分析资料,利用新发展的多尺度子空间变换和重构分析了这一期间阻高的多尺度特征,发现其源头来自欧洲地区,强度减弱后东移,在乌拉尔山—贝加尔湖地区重新增强并得以维持相当长的时间。结果表明,两次阻高过程本质上是同一过程在不同阶段的表现。为探讨上述过程的动力学机制,利用基于多尺度子空间变换的局地多尺度能量分析方法以及正则传输理论对其进行了分析,发现此次异常阻高过程源自32 d以下尺度系统的动能强迫,具体地说,能量来自32 d以下尺度系统向32—128 d低频尺度系统的正压正则传输,而且这种正则传输在阻高环流的东、西两侧不对称,西侧在强度上远大于东侧。分析表明,上述非对称的强迫作用由动能空间输运来平衡,平流将西侧获得的32—128 d低频尺度动能向东侧输运,以此来维持阻高环流的整体稳定和均一。上述两种内部的物理过程是高压环流在东移的过程中得以重新增强并长时间维持的机制。     

On the missing component in the equation for the land surface heat balance as applied to the heat exchange between the desert or semidesert surface and the atmosphere

The unnoticed (up to now) appreciable component of the land surface heat balance equation is revealed and analyzed in this paper. This component describes the direct heat exchange between the atmosphere and the air in the porous soil. The physical mechanism which causes this exchange is described. The missing component of the heat balance equation is discussed in application to the desert surface heat balance.     

A photoelectric detector for the measurement of photolysis frequencies of ozone and other atmospheric molecules

Photoelectric detectors for the measurement of photolysis frequencies of different trace gases in the atmosphere are described. They exhibit uniform response characteristics over one hemisphere (2 sr) and wavelength characteristics closely matched to those of the photolysis frequencies J _O1D, J _NO2, and J _NO3, respectively. Absolute calibration of the J _O1D detector was performed by chemical actinometry with an accuracy of ±16 percent. Simultaneous measurements of J _NO2 and J _O1D are presented.     

The high frequency of neutral stability occurrences as determined by two practical atmospheric stability classification methods for an urban area

Atmospheric stability classes were determined by two atmospheric stability classification methods for the Taipei municipality in this study. In addition, meteorological conditions associated with neutral stability were investigated for the causes of the high frequency of cases of neutral stability. More than 80% of the occurrences in the neutral stability class were associated with the high cloud amounts according to the two methods.     

The role of atmospheric teleconnection in the subtropical thermal forcing on the equatorial pacific

The equatorial response to subtropical Pacific forcing was studied in a coupled climate model.The forcings in the western,central and eastern subtropical Pacific all caused a significant response in the equatorial thermocline,with comparable magnitudes.This work highlights the key role of air-sea coupling in the subtropical impact on the equatorial thermocline,instead of only the role of the ＂oceanic tunnel＂.The suggested mechanism is that the cyclonic （anticyclonic） circulation in the atmosphere caused by the subtropical surface warming （cooling） can generate an anomalous upwelling （downwelling） in the interior region.At the same time,an anomalous downwelling （upwelling） occurs at the equatorward flank of the forcing,which produces anomalous thermocline warming （cooling）,propagating equatorward and resulting in warming （cooling） in the equatorial thermocline.This is an indirect process that is much faster than the ＂oceanic tunnel＂ mechanism in the subtropical impact on the equator.     

Sensitivity Tests of an Energy Balance Model to Choice of Stability Functions and Measurement Accuracy

Sensible (H) and latent (L_vE) heat fluxes are obtained by a combined energy budget – similarity model applied to observations from Melle in Belgium and Cabauw in The Netherlands. The sensitivity to both the stability functions and the accuracy of input data is investigated. In a first step, fluxes are calculated for a selection of stability functions and compared to values obtained with pre-defined (reference) functions. For the diurnal fluxes higher than 10 W m⁻² in 1996 at Melle, the root-mean-square rmsreaches 9 W m⁻² for H and 6 W m⁻² for L_vE, depending on the chosen functions. A lesser sensitivity is obtained at Cabauw and can be explained by lower absolute values of the stability parameter ζ (L involving the Obukhov length) mainly induced by higher mean wind speeds. Different stability bins are also considered. It is concluded that a more accurate assessment of the stability functions is already desirable for absolute values of L above a few metres. These values are not so scarce at Melle and should be captured in the future by an increasing number of new developing long-term measurement stations. In a second step, a statistical approach is proposed with errors depicted by both systematic biases and random fluctuations represented by means of Gaussian distributions. The results show that very accurate measurements are needed in order to maintain the mean annual value of the bias and rms below 5–10 W m⁻², and thus to allow the discrimination between the sensitivity to errors on input data and to the stability functions selection.     

中国北京地区大气臭氧层的基本状态及其与气象要素的相关分析

本文第一次分析研究并给出了中国北京地区大气臭氧层的基本状态:它的总含量、空间分布和时间变化特征;以及这些变化和大气环流及某些气象要素之间可能存在的相关.     

The role of soybean production as an underlying driver of deforestation in the South American Chaco

South America’s tropical dry forests and savannas are under increasing pressure from agricultural expansion. Cattle ranching and soybean production both drive these forest losses, but their relative importance remains unclear. Also unclear is how soybean expansion elsewhere affects deforestation via pushing cattle ranching to deforestation frontiers. To assess these questions, we focused on the Chaco, a 110 million ha ecoregion extending into Argentina, Bolivia, and Paraguay, with about 8 million ha of deforestation in 2000–2012. We used panel regressions at the district level to quantify the role of soybean expansion in driving these forest losses using a wide range of environmental and socio-economic control variables. Our models suggest that soybean production was a direct driver of deforestation in the Argentine Chaco only (0.08 ha new soybean area per ha forest lost), whereas cattle ranching was significantly associated with deforestation in all three countries (0.02 additional cattle per hectare forest loss). However, our models also suggested Argentine soybean cultivation may indirectly be linked to deforestation in the Bolivian and Paraguayan Chaco. We furthermore found substantial time-delayed effects in the relationship of soybean expansion in Argentina and Paraguay (i.e., soybean expansion in one year resulted in deforestation several years later) and deforestation in the Chaco, further suggesting that possible displacement effects within and between Chaco countries may at least partly drive forest loss. Altogether, our study showed that deforestation in the Chaco appears to be mainly driven by the globally surging demand for soybean, although regionally other proximate drivers are sometimes important. Steering agricultural production in the Chaco and other tropical dry forests onto sustainable pathways will thus require policies that consider these scale effects and that account for the regional variation in deforestation drivers within and across countries.     

中高纬大气ISO对夏季鄂海阻高形成和维持的调节作用

运用1979—2015年的逐日NCEP-DOE再分析资料,探讨了夏季鄂霍次克海阻塞高压(简称“鄂海阻高”)与中高纬大气季节内振荡(简称“ISO”)之间的可能联系。研究发现,ISO扰动与夏季鄂海阻高在关键区(130°~160°E,60°~75°N)有最好的耦合关系,且关键区位势高度表现出显著的10~30 d的振荡周期。超前滞后合成分析表明,与鄂海阻高相联系的ISO扰动具有明显的向西传播的特征。波活动通量分析结果显示,波能量在中高纬140°W附近累积,因此西传的ISO扰动可能源自中高纬140°W附近。对位势倾向方程的诊断结果显示,动力作用对关键区位势高度的时间变化起主要作用。进一步运用尺度分析表明,在夏季鄂海阻高发生和维持的过程中,ISO经向风引导的平均涡度平流对位势高度的时间变化起主导作用。     

天体引潮力与东亚夏季阻塞高压活动

通过普查东亚地区夏季阻塞高压活动与天体引潮力的关系,发现东亚阻高的建立、持续和崩溃均与天文奇点引潮力共振有关。贝加尔湖和鄂霍次克海阻高的建立是由于该地区在2—3天内遇到≥3个天文奇点的共振加压（同时没有遇到共振减压）而引起的。其后又接连遇到引潮力共振加压而维持,最后遇共振减压而崩溃。其他地区的一些造成重大天气过程的阻高个例,其活动过程所遇的天文条件,也与此类似。