The music of the spheres and the prosaicness of statistical criteria: A response to B.L. Berry’s paper “Heliogeophysical and other natural processes,periods of their oscillations,and forecasts”

According to B.L. Berry’s “harmonic model,” any natural or social process is a superposition of several cosmic rhythms. The author assumes that stability of these rhythms allows prediction of earth phenomena over an unlimited time. We show that the statistical criteria supposedly substantiating the harmonic model were applied incorrectly. The initial data for the analysis were biased and selected incompetently; the adequacy of the methods used was not verified. Predictions of natural catastrophes (earthquakes, weather anomalies, etc.) and various social events according to Berry’s model are unsatisfactory. Statistics do not confirm that these predictions are at least slightly better than random guessing. Berry’s model is unacceptable; it is untenable both in detail and in general.     

Is a stock overfished if it is depleted by overfishing? A response to the rebuttal of Agnew et al. to Froese and Proelss “Evaluation and legal assessment of certified seafood”

This contribution is a response to the rebuttal of Agnew et al. (2012) to Froese and Proelss (2012) “Evaluation and legal assessment of certified seafood”. It corrects some factually wrong statements in the rebuttal, revisits the definitions of ‘depleted’ and ‘overfished’, and notes that the rebuttal agrees with the international definition of ‘overfishing’ (F>FMSY) that was used by Froese and Proelss (2012). The rebuttal presents an analysis of 45 MSC-certified stocks. Of these, 27% are ‘depleted’ (according to the definition used by MSC) or ‘overfished’ (according to the definition used by Froese and Proelss 2012) and 16% are subject to ‘overfishing’, basically confirming the critique of Froese and Proelss (2012). This response concludes that MSC has to change its rules for certification such that (1) overfishing is not allowed and (2) ‘depleted’ stocks are marked as such.