A comparison of seismic risk maps for Italy

National seismic risk maps are an important risk mitigation tool as they can be used for the prioritization of regions within a country where retrofitting of the building stock or other risk mitigation measures should take place. The production of a seismic risk map involves the convolution of seismic hazard data, vulnerability predictions for the building stock and exposure data. The seismic risk maps produced in Italy over the past 10 years are compared in this paper with recent proposals for seismic risk maps based on state-of-the-art seismic hazard data and mechanics-based vulnerability assessment procedures. The aim of the paper is to open the discussion for the way in which future seismic risk maps could be produced, making use of the most up-to-date information in the fields of seismic hazard evaluation and vulnerability assessment.     

Building vulnerability assessment and damage scenarios in Celano (Italy) using a quick survey data-based methodology

A procedure for assessing the seismic vulnerability of residential buildings is presented along with the results of its application in an Italian town in Abruzzo (Celano Aq). This procedure is part of a methodological proposal which includes specific studies on expected seismic inputs and site effects analyses. The procedure is based on a simplified collection of data, such as typological features and factors concerning the seismic behaviour of buildings, and provides an estimate of seismic vulnerability and an expected damage forecast using fragility curves. The instruments and methods used for the Celano project are an updated and improved version of those applied to previous vulnerability investigations. This paper demonstrates how this procedure can meet the objectives of the integrated methodology proposed. In fact, the information that can be obtained using this procedure—state of vulnerability, risk analyses and GIS presentations of damage scenarios—could be used in urban planning to reduce seismical risk.     

A simplified approach for vulnerability assessment in moderate-to-low seismic hazard regions: application to Grenoble (France)

Due to the moderate seismic risks in France, the building vulnerability assessment methods developed for high seismic risk countries could not easily be used here because of their cost and the low-risk perception among the public and officials. A light vulnerability assessment method is proposed and tested in Grenoble (France), based on classes and scores provided in the GNDT method but simplified in terms of visual screening and number of structural parameters used. Compared to the RiskUE method, the damage obtained by our approach shows that 90% of buildings have residuals smaller than 0.2, i.e. one grade of the EMS98 damage scale. A large scale survey is devised and conducted among the inhabitants of Grenoble in order to collect the main structural parameters. By comparing the results from the survey to the historical urbanization of Grenoble and to expert surveys performed in two urban districts, the information useful for the light method of vulnerability assessment can be rapidly collected by non-experts reducing substantially the estimate cost. The average damage is then computed using the GNDT formula considering the probable intensities which could be observed in Grenoble (VII and VIII). The average damage reaches 0.4 in the oldest part of Grenoble mainly made of masonry buildings and 0.2 in reinforced concrete suburbs where reinforced concrete predominates. The results are a relative vulnerability assessment that provides useful initial information for the urban zones of Grenoble where the vulnerability is higher. This method can be used to classify the seismic vulnerability in wide seismic-prone regions to a fair degree of accuracy and at low cost.     

Macroseismic and mechanical models for the vulnerability and damage assessment of current buildings

The European Commission funded the RISK-UE project in 1999 with the aim of providing an advanced approach to earthquake risk scenarios for European towns and regions. In the framework of Risk-UE project, two methods were proposed, originally derived and calibrated by the authors, for the vulnerability assessment of current buildings and for the evaluation of earthquake risk scenarios: a macroseismic model, to be used with macroseismic intensity hazard maps, and a mechanical based model, to be applied when the hazard is provided in terms of peak ground accelerations and spectral values. The vulnerability of the buildings is defined by vulnerability curves, within the macroseismic method, and in terms of capacity curves, within the mechanical method. In this paper, the development of both vulnerability and capacity curves is presented with reference to an assumed typological classification system; moreover, their cross-validation is presented. The parameters of the two methods and the steps for their operative implementation are provided in the paper.     

Empirical seismic fragility for the precast RC industrial buildings damaged by the 2012 Emilia (Italy) earthquakes

The paper analyses the seismic fragility of precast reinforced concrete buildings using observational damage data gathered after the 2012 Emilia earthquakes that struck Northern Italy. The damage level in 1890 buildings was collected, classified and examined. Damage matrices were then evaluated, and finally, empirical fragility curves were fitted using Bayesian regression. Building damage was classified using a six‐level scale derived from EMS‐98. The completeness of the database and the spatial distribution of the buildings investigated were analysed using cadastral data as a reference. The intensity of the ground motion was quantified by the maximum horizontal peak ground acceleration, which was obtained from ShakeMaps. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A methodology for the evaluation of long-term volcanic risk from pyroclastic flows in Campi Flegrei (Italy)

The volcanological history of Campi Flegrei suggests that the most frequent eruptions are characterized by the emplacement of pyroclastic flow and surge deposits erupted from different vents scattered over a 150-km² caldera. The evaluation of volcanic risk in volcanic fields is complex because of the lack of a central vent. To approach this problem, we subdivided the entire area of Campi Flegrei into a regular grid and evaluated the relative spatial probability of opening of vents based on geological, geophysical and geochemical data. We evaluated the volcanic risk caused by pyroclastic flows based on the formula proposed by UNESCO (1972), R=H×V×Va, where H is the hazard, V is the vulnerability and Va is the value of the elements at risk. The product H×V was obtained by performing simulations of type eruptions centered in each cell of the grid. The simulation is based on the energy cone scheme proposed by Sheridan and Malin [J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 17 (1983) 187–202], hypothesizing a column collapse height of 100 m for eruptions of VEI=3 and 300 m for eruptions of VEI=4 with a slope angle of 6°. Each simulation has been given the relative probability value associated with the corresponding cell. We made use of the GIS software ArcView 3.2 to evaluate the intersection between the energy cone and the topography. The superposition of the areas invaded by pyroclastic flows (124 simulations for VEI=3 and 37 for VEI=4) was used to obtain the relative hazard map of the area. The relative volcanic risk map is obtained by superimposing the urbanization maps.     

Spatial and temporal variations in soil erosion and deposition due to land‐levelling in a semi‐arid area of Basilicata (Southern Italy)

This paper examines the changes from 1955 to 2002 in soil erosion and deposition due to changes in land‐use patterns in the semi‐arid territory of Craco, which is characterized by landsliding and badland erosion. The area underwent continuous degradation during the last century due not only to its lithological vulnerability but also to the anthropic pressure favoured by the introduction of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) measures, which has led to the reclamation of scrub lands and badlands for durum wheat cultivation. Our analysis integrates the Unit Stream Power Erosion Deposition (USPED) model with a geographic information system (GIS) to quantify erosion risk and predict deposition patterns. Soil data, land use inventory, digital elevation data and climatic atlases were used as resource data sets to generate USPED factor values. The obtained results correlate well with field measured erosion data by other researchers. In the investigated 47 years, stable areas decreased by about 280 ha (3·8% of the total surface area), largely attributable to the increase of the low and moderate erosion intensity without significant change in sedimentation. Results from this study have implications related to understanding the geomorphic response of sites that were abandoned following remodelling due to the application of the F measure of Regulation CEE 2078/92. The average annual erosion rates estimated for abandoned and remodelled sites are respectively 15·99 and 10·64 t ha^?1, meaning that the total amount of erosion in 20 years could be estimated at around 100 t ha^?1. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeling of Rayleigh waves dispersion in the Sannio region (Southern Italy) from seismic active refraction data

Short period surface waves, recorded during a seismic refractionsurvey in the Sannio region (Southern Italy), have been modeled to infera shallow velocity model for the area. Based on the decrease of resolutionwith depth, due to the bias on group velocity estimates arising frominterference of the Rayleigh waves with higher modes, we carried out aprocedure of fitting, with synthetic seismograms, of selected filtered traceswith a gaussian filter, having a width at half height equal to 1 Hz and acentral frequency lying in the range [1,4] Hz. We estimated the likelihoodbetween synthetic and observed seismograms by measuring their semblance.In this way we were able to infer a more refined local velocity modelcharacterized by a high Vp and Vs vertical gradient in the sedimentarycover. Two ad hoc resolution studies, based on group velocity andamplitude data respectively, indicate that the local velocity model is a goodvelocity model also for the entire studied area. The increase in the numberof available data when using amplitude information allows us to make amore selective choice in the model parameter space (Vp and Vs of eachlayer) and to solve for the Vp/Vs ratio. The inferred Vp velocity in thehalf-space is equal to 2.8 km/s. This value is in excellent agreement withthat inferred by other authors (3 km/s) by modeling P-wave travel timevs. distance. The best-fit model furnish low Vp/Vs for the sedimentarycover so indicating a high degree of the sediment's compaction in thestudied area. The inferred shallow high-velocity gradient indicates thatthe shallow sedimentary layer in the area could trap and focus the energytraveling into it.     

The seismic microzonation of the city of Catania (Italy) for the maximum expected scenario earthquake of January 11, 1693

Safety against earthquake hazards presents two aspects: structural safety against potentially destructive dynamic forces and site safety related to geotechnical phenomena, such as amplification, landsliding and soil liquefaction. The correct evaluation of seismic hazard is, therefore, highly affected by risk factors due to geological nature and geotechnical properties of soils. In response to these new developments, several attempts have been made to identify and appraise geotechnical hazards and to represent them in the form of zoning maps, in which locations or zones with different levels of hazard potential are identified. The geotechnical zonation of the subsoil of the city of Catania (Italy) suggests a high vulnerability of the physical environment added to site amplification of the ground motion phenomena. The ground response analysis at the surface, in terms of time history and response spectra, has been obtained by some 1D equivalent linear models and by a 2D linear model, using a design scenario earthquake as input at the conventional bedrock. In particular, the study has regarded the evaluation of site effects in correspondence of the database of about 1200 boreholes and water-wells available in the data-bank of the Catania area. According to the response spectra obtained through the application of the 1D and 2D models, the city of Catania has been divided into some zones with different peak ground acceleration at the surface, to which corresponds a different value of the Seismic Geotechnical Hazard. A seismic microzoning map of the urban area of the city of Catania has been obtained. The map represents an important tool for the seismic improvement of the buildings, indispensable for the mitigation of the seismic risk.     

Source parameters and stress release of seismic sequences occurred in the Friuli-Venezia Giulia region (Northeastern Italy) and in Western Slovenia

The source parameters of the major events of a swarm and of two seismic sequences, occurred in the Friuli area (Northeastern Italy) and in Western Slovenia, were estimated. The Claut swarm (C96) occurred since the end of January to June 1996, with a M_D 4.3 major shock and it appears composed of three sub-sequences. The two sequences are the Kobarid sequence (K98) started on April 12, 1998 with a M_D 5.6 mainshock and the M.te Sernio (S02) sequence caused by the February 14, 2002 earthquake (M_D = 4.9). Acceleration and velocity data recorded by the local seismic network of the Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimenale (OGS) and corrected for attenuation, were employed to estimate seismic moments and radiated energies. Source dimensions were inferred from the computed corner frequencies and the stress release was estimated from the Brune stress drop, the apparent stress and the RMS stress drop. On the whole, seismic moments range from 1.7 × 10¹² to 1.1 × 10¹⁷ N m, and radiated energies are in the range 10⁶–10¹³ J. Brune stress drops are scattered and do not show any evidence of a self-similarity breakdown for sources down to 130 m radius. The radiated seismic energy scales as a function of seismic moment, with a slope of the scaling relation that decreases for increasing seismic moments.The mechanism of stress release was analyzed by computing the ɛ parameter of Zuniga [Zuniga, R., 1993. Frictional overshoot and partial stress drop. Which one? Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 83, 939–944]. The K98 and S02 sequences are characterized by a wide range of the ɛ parameter with stress drop mechanism varying from partial locking to overshoot cases. The ɛ values of the C96 swarm are more homogeneous and close to the Orowan's condition. The radiated seismic energy and the ratio of stress drop between mainshock and aftershocks appear different among the analyzed cases. We therefore investigated the relationship between the stress parameters of the main shock and the energy radiated by the aftershock sequences. For this purpose, we also estimated the source parameters of two other sequences occurred in the area, with mainshocks of M_D 4.1 and 5.1, respectively. We found a positive correlation between the Brune stress drop of the mainshock and the ratio between the radiated energy of the mainshock and the summation of the energies radiated by the aftershocks.     

Seismic risk assessments and GIS technology: applications to infrastructures in the Friuli–Venezia Giulia region (NE Italy)

This paper illustrates the seismic risk preliminary estimates of two different groups of structures located on the territory of the Friuli–Venezia Giulia region (NE Italy) : the first group includes some special industrial plants, and the second group includes bridges and tunnels belonging to the regional highway network. The part of the study on special industrial plants tries to evaluate the degree of expected damage, taking into account their structural typology and ground shaking expressed in terms of macroseismic intensity. The second part of the study is an application of the HAZUS methodology to the tunnels and bridges of a highway network: the combination of expected ground shaking and the construction characteristics lead to very different risk levels, especially when considering the bridges. The resulting damage levels to bridges and tunnels are still only indicative because of the fragility curves used in the evaluations: they were developed for existing bridge and tunnel structural typologies in the U.S.A. Moreover, both examples show the power of GIS technology in storing, elaborating, and mapping spatial data. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Structure and evolution of the Bay of Pozzuoli (Italy) using marine seismic reflection data: implications for collapse of the Campi Flegrei caldera

Digital marine seismic reflection data acquired in 1973 in the Bay of Pozzuoli, and recently reprocessed, were used to study the volcanological evolution of the marine sector of Campi Flegrei Caldera during the last 37 ka. In order to gain more information, interpretation also involved estimation of the "pseudo-velocity" and the "pseudo-density" from the resistivity logs of two onshore deep exploration wells. The main results are: (1) discovery of ancient pre-18 ka and post-37 ka submarine and mainly effusive volcanic activity, along coeval emission centers located at the edges of Campi Flegrei Caldera; (2) confirmation that the caldera collapse in the marine sector of Campi Flegrei seems strongly controlled by regional NE–SW and NW–SE structural discontinuities; (3) the finding of at least two episodes of collapse in the bay; and (4) identification of a post-18 ka volcanic deflation phase that has caused about 150–200 m of subsidence in the central sector of the Bay of Pozzuoli in the last 18 ka.Editorial responsibilty: T. Druitt     

Validation through HVSR measurements of a method for the quick detection of site amplification effects from intensity data: an application to a seismic area in Northern Italy

An instrumental validation is attempted of an innovative approach devoted to the quick individuation, from macroseismic data, of site amplification phenomena able to significantly modify seismic hazard levels expected on the basis of average propagation effects only. According to this methodology, two evaluations of hazard are performed at each investigated locality: the former, obtained by epicentral intensity data ‘reduced’ at the site through a probabilistic attenuation function and, the latter, computed by integrating such data with seismic effects actually observed at the site during past earthquakes. The comparison, for each locality, between these two hazard estimates allow to orientate the identification of those sites where local amplifications of earthquake ground motion could be significant. In order to check such methodology, indications obtained in this way from macroseismic data are compared with the estimates of transfer functions performed through the HVSR technique applied to microtremors. Results concerning municipalities located in a seismic area of Northern Italy indicate a good agreement between macroseismic and instrumental estimates.     

Evaluation of a recently proposed record selection and scaling procedure for low‐rise to mid‐rise reinforced concrete buildings and its use for probabilistic risk assessment studies

This paper evaluates a recent record selection and scaling procedure of the authors that can determine the probabilistic structural response of buildings behaving either in the elastic or post‐elastic range. This feature marks a significant strength on the procedure as the probabilistic structural response distribution conveys important information on probability‐based damage assessment. The paper presents case studies that show the utilization of the proposed record selection and scaling procedure as a tool for the estimation of damage states and derivation of site‐specific and region‐specific fragility functions. The method can be used to describe exceedance probabilities of damage limits under a certain target hazard level with known annual exceedance rate (via probabilistic seismic hazard assessment). Thus, the resulting fragility models can relate the seismicity of the region (or a site) with the resulting building performance in a more accurate manner. Under this context, this simple and computationally efficient record selection and scaling procedure can be benefitted significantly by probability‐based risk assessment methods that have started to be considered as indispensable for developing robust earthquake loss models. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic hazard assessment in the volcanic region of Mt. Etna (Italy): a probabilistic approach based on macroseismic data applied to volcano-tectonic seismicity

In the framework of the UPStrat-MAFA project, a seismic hazard assessment has been undertaken in the volcanic region of Mt. Etna as a first step in studies aimed at evaluating the risk on an urban scale. The analysis has been carried out with the SASHA code which uses macroseismic data in order to calculate, starting from the site seismic history, the maximum intensity value expected in a given site with a probability of exceedance of 10 % (I_ref), for a fixed exposure time. Depending on the aims of the project, hazard is estimated for local volcano-tectonic seismicity and short exposure times (10 and 30 years), without taking into account the contribution of “regional” events characterized by much longer recurrence times. Results from tasks A, B and D of the project have produced an updated macroseismic dataset, better performing attenuation models and new tools for SASHA, respectively. The maps obtained indicate that the eastern flank of Etna, the most urbanized sector of the volcano, is characterized by a high level of hazard with I_ref values up to degree VIII EMS, and even IX EMS locally. The disaggregated data analysis allows recognizing the “design earthquake” and the seismogenic fault which most contribute to the hazard at a site-scale. The latter analysis is the starting point to select the scenario earthquake to be used in the analyses of tasks C and F of the project dealing with, respectively, synthetic ground motion simulations and the evaluation of the Disruption Index.     

Monte Carlo Inversion of DInSAR Data for Dislocation Modeling: Application to the 1997 Umbria-Marche Seismic Sequence (Central Italy)

— The study of surface deformation due to seismic activity is often made using dislocations with uniform slip and simple geometries. A better modeling of coseismic and postseismic surface displacements can be obtained by using dislocations with variable slip and nonregular shapes. This is consistent with the asperity model of fault surfaces, assuming a friction distribution on faults made of locked zones with much higher friction than surrounding zones. In this paper we consider the 1997–1998 Colfiorito seismic sequence. The coseismic surface displacements in the Colfiorito zone are used in order to infer the slip distribution on the fault surface at different stages of the sequence. The displacement field has been modeled varying the slip distribution on the fault, and comparing the deformation observed by SAR and GPS techniques with model results. The slip distribution is calculated by Monte Carlo simulations on a normal fault with the dip angle equal to 40°. A good approximation is obtained by using square asperity units of 1.5×1.5 km². In the first stage, we employed a simplified model with uniform slip, in which each asperity unit is allowed to slip a constant amount or not to slip at all, and in the second stage, we evaluate the slip distribution in the dislocation area determined by the Monte Carlo inversion: in this case we allow unit cells to undergo different values of slip in order to refine the initial dislocation model. The results show that the 1997 seismic events of the sequence can be modeled by irregular dislocations, obtaining a good fit to the DInSAR and GPS observations. The model also confirms the results of previous studies by a different methodology, defining the distribution of asperities on the fault plane using the fault geometry, the geodetic data and the seismic moment of the 1997–1998 Colfiorito seismic sequence. Furthermore, the analysis of 1997 aftershocks in the seismogenic region shows a strong correlation between most events and the asperity distribution, which can be considered as an independent test of the validity of the model.     

Volcaniclastic debris-flow occurrences in the Campania region (Southern Italy) and their relation to Holocene–Late Pleistocene pyroclastic fall deposits: implications for large-scale hazard mapping

The Campania Region (southern Italy) is characterized by the frequent occurrence of volcaniclastic debris flows that damage property and loss of life (more than 170 deaths between 1996 and 1999). Historical investigation allowed the identification of more than 500 events during the last four centuries; in particular, more than half of these occurred in the last 100 years, causing hundreds of deaths. The aim of this paper is to quantify debris-flow hazard potential in the Campania Region. To this end, we compared several elements such as the thickness distribution of pyroclastic fall deposits from the last 18 ka of the Vesuvius and Phlegrean Fields volcanoes, the slopes of relieves, and the historical record of volcaniclastic debris flows from A.D. 1500 to the present. Results show that flow occurrence is not only a function of the cumulative thickness of past pyroclastic fall deposits but also depends on the age of emplacement. Deposits younger than 10 ka (Holocene eruptions) apparently increase the risk of debris flows, while those older than 10 ka (Late Pleistocene eruptions) seem to play a less prominent role, which is probably due to different climatic conditions, and therefore different rates of erosion of pyroclastic falls between the Holocene and the Late Pleistocene. Based on the above considerations, we compiled a large-scale debris-flow hazard map of the study area in which five main hazard zones are identified: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high.     

Paleomagnetism of Jurassic to Miocene sediments from the Apenninic carbonate platform (southern Apennines, Italy): evidence for a 60° counterclockwise Miocene rotation

The tectonic evolution of the Apennine belt/southern Tyrrhenian Sea system is addressed through a paleomagnetic study of Lias to Langhian sediments from the Apenninic carbonate platform (southern Apennines, Italy). Reliable paleomagnetic data gathered from 21 sites document a regional-scale post-Langhian 80° counterclockwise (CCW) rotation. Since previous studies of the Plio-Pleistocene clays spread over the orogen had shown a ∼20°CCW rotation, we conclude that the southern Apennines rotated by 60° during Middle-Late Miocene. Our data provide evidence that the southeastward drift of Calabrian block (and synchronous spreading of the southern Tyrrhenian Sea) induced ‘saloon door’ like deformation of the southern Apennines and Sicily, which underwent similar magnitude (although opposite in sign) orogenic rotations. A paleomagnetically derived paleogeographic reconstruction shows that at 15 Ma (Late Langhian) the Alpine-Apennine belt collided with a NNE-oriented carbonate platform corridor surrounded by oceanic basins. We speculate that both the end of the Corsica-Sardinia rotation and the eastward jump of the locus of back-arc extension (from the Liguro-Provençal to the Tyrrhenian Sea) may have been consequences of this event.