Arctic sea ice long-term dynamics according to the satellite microwave data

The main results of processing the long-term satellite data in different spectral ranges and with different spatial resolutions used to map Arctic sea ice parameters are presented. The advantages of the methods developed in order to estimate these parameters on the basis of microwave sensor measurements are indicated. The specific features of the long-term dynamics of the main sea ice geophysical parameters (the sea ice area and distribution during the summer minimum, ice age structure and thickness, multiyear ice concentration, times of ice melt and freeze onset, etc.) are presented. The effect of changes in sheet ice on the status of large Arctic mammals is estimated.     

Uncertainty and joint probability of sea ice loads

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渤海海域单柱三桩式海上风电结构冰激振动分析

针对渤海某区域以单柱三桩式结构为支撑的海上风电系统进行了冰激振动分析。首先模拟风电结构具有显著动力特性差异的主-从式结构特征,根据工程场址海域冰情条件,设置了合理的海冰分析工况,随后依据概化冰力函数确定作用于风电基础结构上的动冰力时程,开展全时域瞬态动力分析。通过对计算结果的详尽分析,选定表征冰与风电结构相互作用进程的综合控制因子Ic,建立基于综合控制因子的冰振事件区划及其出现概率的预判方法。相关方法将为渤海海域风电工程结构冰激振动问题的预判与评估提供参考。     

基于黏聚单元法计算分析海洋平台锥形立柱冰载荷

基于非线性有限元分析方法和LS-DYNA计算软件,使用黏聚单元法建立层冰的数值模型,并进行了层冰与锥形立柱相互作用的数值模拟,研究抗冰锥角、冰厚等参数对立柱所受冰载荷的影响。模拟结果与实测和试验结果吻合良好。研究结果表明:使用黏聚单元法建立的层冰模型可以较好地模拟出层冰的破碎和堆积过程,冰载荷计算结果与ISO冰力标准结果以及离散单元法计算结果吻合较好;锥形立柱的抗冰锥角大小对冰载荷影响明显,随着锥角增大,水平方向的最大冰力增大而竖直方向上最大冰力减小;锥形结构改变了碰撞过程中层冰的破坏形式;结构物所受冰力大小与层冰厚度呈正相关,且增加速度接近线性。     

海冰与直立结构相互作用的破坏模式研究

海冰在结构前的破坏模式以及产生的冰载荷与结构尺度和海冰厚度密切相关。采用海冰离散元方法（DEM）模拟平整冰与直立结构相互作用过程中的海冰破坏模式及整体冰载荷。该离散元方法的计算参数通过与Norstr?msgrund灯塔的现场实测数据对比进行了可靠性验证。在此基础上,对不同宽厚比（结构宽度与海冰厚度的比值）工况下平整冰与直立结构作用过程中的海冰破坏模式和整体冰压力进行了离散元分析。模拟结果表明：当宽厚比＜10时,海冰破坏模式主要为挤压破坏;当10≤宽厚比＜30时,海冰混合破坏发生;当宽厚比≥30时,海冰屈曲破坏发生。从海冰断裂长度与平均冰压力两个方面进一步说明了海冰破坏模式的转变过程。最后,构建了直立结构极值冰压力计算公式。研究成果可为寒区直立结构的整体设计提供参考。     

多桩锥体海洋平台结构冰荷载遮蔽效应离散元分析

在海冰与多桩锥体海洋平台结构的相互作用中,平台结构总冰力在海冰流向和桩腿方位的影响下呈现出显著的遮蔽效应。采用具有粘结-破碎效应的离散元方法,基于GPU并行的高性能计算,对不同冰向下锥体海洋平台结构的冰荷载进行了数值分析,确定了不同冰向下平台结构各桩腿的冰力衰减系数并分析了总冰力的遮蔽效应。最后,对自由边界影响下多桩平台结构冰荷载遮蔽效应的产生机理进行了讨论。本文工作可为多桩腿平台结构的冰荷载特性、冰激结构振动以及冰区结构设计提供参考。     

大直径单桩风机基础冰荷载模型试验研究

针对渤海某海域以单桩结构为支撑的海上风电系统,对大直径直立桩风机基础进行了一系列静冰载荷模型试验研究。首先,针对目标海域海冰调研结果确定多个冰速工况,对3 MW及4 MW装机功率对应的两种不同直径的单桩基础开展静冰载荷模型试验;随后在试验现象及试验结果的分析中重点关注了冰排在大直径结构前的破坏模式及破坏特点;最终,通过对比模型试验冰力极值试验结果与多规范冰载荷计算结果,确定大直径直立桩静冰载荷计算规范的合理选择,并根据试验结果对直立桩静冰载荷计算方法进行了经验参数修正。得出的相关结论可为渤海海域大直径单桩式风机基础冰载荷的工程估算提供参考。     

Discrete elementmodeling of ice loads on ship hulls in broken ice fields

Ice loads on a ship hull affect the safety of the hull structure and the ship maneuvering performance in ice-covered regions. A discrete element method （DEM） is used to simulate the interaction between drifting ice floes and a moving ship. The pancake ice floes are modelled with three-dimensional （3-D） dilated disk elements considering the buoyancy, drag force and additional mass induced by the current. The ship hull is modelled with 3D disks with overlaps. Ice loads on the ship hull are determined through the contact detection between ice floe element and ship hull element and the contact force calculation. The influences of different ice conditions （current velocities and directions, ice thicknesses, concentrations and ice floe sizes） and ship speeds are also examined on the dynamic ice force. The simulated results are compared qualitatively well with the existing field data and other numerical results. This work can be helpful in the shil3 structure design and the navigation securitv in ice-covered fields.     

Study of the ice conditions in the Gulf of Ob

The results of theoretical studies of fracture lines in the ice floes of the Gulf of Ob as a function of the coefficient of internal sliding are presented in this paper. An estimate of the fractal dimensions of the emerging topological structures and the results of the calculation of stresses in the ice cover of the Gulf of Ob are presented as functions of different directions of external forcing caused by the joint action of winds and currents on the ice. The geographical locations of the zones of possible loads are shown, together with the estimates of the hummock sizes in the zones of the maximal compression of the ice floes in the Gulf of Ob.     

Wedge impact with the influence of ice

This work presents a canonical study on a wedge entering water near a single piece of ice using computational-fluid-dynamics (CFD) and a Wagner-type theoretical model with corrections for non-linear effects. Calculations for a series of conditions with ice of different sizes and locations relative to the wedge are conducted. The hydrodynamic force due to impact, the pressure distribution on the wedge surface, and the pile-up phenomenon are examined to study the role of ice in the impact process. The theoretical model is shown to be accurate and can serve as a useful method to assess slamming loads under the influence of ice. It is shown that even for the case of a small piece of ice, the slamming force on the wedge can increase by 30%.     

冰脊形成过程的离散元模拟及影响因素分析

冰脊对极地船舶及海洋工程结构的冰载荷设计及冰区安全运行具有重要的影响,其几何形态是重要的考虑因素。为研究冰脊的几何形态,本文基于Voronoi切割算法构造扩展多面体海冰单元,并使其相互冻结形成平整冰;采用离散单元法模拟海冰在相对运动时挤压形成冰脊的动力过程,统计分析脊帆高度、龙骨宽度、龙骨深度、龙骨水平倾角等主要几何参数,并确定这些几何参数间的对应关系。将离散元模拟结果同冰脊现场观测资料对比分析以验证扩展多面体离散元方法模拟冰脊形成过程的可行性。在此基础上讨论冰厚、冰速、海冰强度等因素对冰脊形态的影响。本文采用离散元方法对冰脊形成过程及几何特性的数值分析可为深入开展冰脊的形成机理及其对船舶、海洋工程结构物的冰载荷分析提供参考依据。     

基于黏聚单元法的抗冰海洋平台与层冰相互作用数值模拟

通过商业有限元软件LS-DYNA采用黏聚单元法模拟层冰的断裂问题,在IIHR冰池模型试验相同缩尺比参数下对KULLUK抗冰平台受到的冰力进行数值计算,探究冰厚与冰速等冰况参数对平台冰力的影响。计算结果表明,在极地作业平台主要遭遇北极海域冰况范围下,相同冰厚情况时冰速变化对倒锥形结构平台的横向冰力影响不大,而同冰速时冰力随着冰厚的增加接近线性增加。同时将计算所得结果与同条件下IIHR冰池模型试验数据、ARCTEC、ACL非冻结模型冰试验数据、实船数据和通过ISO19906规范中提供的针对大锥面结构受到层冰冰力的经验公式计算所得数据等进行了对比,验证了选用冰参数的可靠性以及该数值模型在模拟大尺度宽锥形平台遭受层冰作用问题中的适用性。     

基于水下光纤应变监测的导管架结构总冰力测量方法

基于测量结构水下光纤应变获取冰力的方法首次应用于渤海JZ20-2NW加锥导管架平台,该方法方便进行零点标定,可获取结构总冰力的绝对信息(包括均值和波动值)。首先介绍了JZ20-2NW平台的现场监测系统,主要包括结构水下应变响应记录冰力信息,甲板上部视频记录同步冰情(冰厚、冰速和来冰方向)信息和拾振器记录结构冰振响应;重点分析了由测点应变向结构总冰力的转化方法,并对总冰力进行了初步分析。将无量纲化实测冰力与5种典型冰力计算模型进行了比较,分析结果表明,锥体宽度与海冰厚度比值(简称"宽厚比")对冰力大小及变化起决定作用。     

Sea ice characteristics between the middle Weddell Sea and the Prydz Bay, Antarctica during the austral summer of 2003

The antarctic sea ice was investigated upon five occasions between January 4 and February 15, 2003. The investigations included: (1) estimation of sea ice distribution by ship-based observations between the middle Weddell Sea and the Prydz Bay; (2) estimation of sea ice distribution by aerial photography in the Prydz Bay; (3) direct measurements of fast ice thickness and snow cover, as well as ice core sampling in Nella Fjord; (4) estimation of melting sea ice distribution near the Zhongshan Station; and (5) observation of sea ice early freeze near the Zhongshan Station. On average, sea ice covered 14.4% of the study area. The highest sea ice concentration (80%) was observed in the Weddell Sea. First-year ice was dominant (99.7%-99.8%). Sea ice distributions in the Prydz Bay were more variable due to complex inshore topography, proximity of the Larsemann Hills, and/or grounded icebergs. The average thickness of landfast ice in NeUa Fjord was 169.5 cm. Wind-blown snow redistribution plays an important role in affecting the ice thickness in Nella Fjord. Preliminary freezing of sea ice near the Zhongshan Station follows the first two phases of the pancake cycle.     

冰和直立结构相互作用的静冰力可靠性分析

我国渤海每年约有3个月的结冰期,冰与海洋结构的相互作用远较波浪为甚,因此有必要进行冰与海洋结构相互作用的可靠性分析.首先,采用热力学的方法根据每年实测的环境参数对海冰平整冰厚进行数值模拟计算,然后根据计算结果对不同重现期的极值冰厚采用极值统计法给出了极值分布,并与其他文献作比较.其次,以应变速率为海冰强度的主要影响参数,给出了海冰强度的概率分布.最后,以Schwarz公式为静冰力计算公式,结合得到的冰厚和冰强度的概率分布,采用映射变换法进行不同重现期静冰力的可靠度分析计算,并用蒙特卡罗重点抽样法进行模拟.     

锥体冰力的实验研究

通过冰力模型试验,研究了锥体冰力的特征和锥间距对冰力的影响。试验发现冰在正-倒锥交界线上的破坏为挤压破坏;根据试验数据给出了冰在双锥前的非同时破坏系数。     

渤海沿岸海冰单轴压缩强度的基本特性分析

海冰单轴压缩强度是寒区海洋工程中的一个重要设计参数,也是影响海冰动力学行为的主要因素。在2008-2012年间的三个冬季,对渤海沿岸的海冰单轴压缩强度进行了现场与室内试验,由此分析了其在温度、卤水体积和应力率下的基本特征。测试结果表明,海冰单轴压缩强度与其温度呈幂函数关系,与卤水体积平方根呈指数关系,与应力率呈线性关系。此外还分别在不同温度与卤水体积下确定了海冰单轴压缩强度上包络限的变化规律。最后,综合考虑卤水体积和应力率的影响,对海冰单轴压缩强度分布特征进行了分析。以上研究有助于揭示渤海海冰基本力学性质,为冰区结构设计和海冰动力学分析提供参考依据。     

锥角对锥体结构抗冰性能影响的离散元分析

在寒区海洋工程中,锥体海洋结构的尺寸参数对其破冰性能具有重要影响。采用具有黏结-破碎功能的离散元方法模拟海冰与锥体结构的相互作用过程中海冰的破坏模式及冰载荷分析。该离散元方法的计算参数通过与渤海油气平台的实测数据对比进行了可靠性验证。在此基础上,当设计海域的潮差固定时,对不同锥角下风电单桩锥体结构的冰载荷和海冰破坏模式进行了离散元分析。计算结果表明:锥体冰载荷随锥角的增大而增大,海冰的平均断裂长度则随锥角的增大而减小;当锥角小于70°时海冰的破碎模式主要为弯曲破坏,而当锥角大于70°时海冰破坏模式则主要为挤压破碎。以上研究结果可为冰区海上风电单桩结构的抗冰锥设计提供参考。     

Sea ice concentration anomalies as long range predictors of anomalous conditions in the North Atlantic basin

Long-range empirical forecasts of North Atlantic anomalous conditions are issued, using sea ice concentration anomalies in the same region as predictors. Conditions in the North Atlantic are characterized by anomalies of sea surface temperature, of 850 hPa air temperature and of sea level pressure. Using the Singular Value Decomposition of the cross-covariance matrix between the sea ice field (the predictor) and each of the predictand variables, empirical models are built, and forecasts at lead times from 3 to 18 months are presented. The forecasts of the air temperature anomalies score the highest levels of the skill, while forecasts of the sea level pressure anomalies are the less sucessful ones.
To investigate the sources of the forecast skill, we analyze their spatial patterns. In addition, we investigate the influence of major climatic signals on the forecast skill. In the case of the air temperature anomalies, the spatial pattern of the skill may be connected to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences. The ENSO signature is present in the predictor field, as shown in the composite analysis. The composite pattern indicates a higher (lower) sea ice concentration in the Labrador Sea and the opposite situation in the Greenland–Barents Seas during the warm (cold) phase of ENSO. The forecasts issued under the El Niño conditions show improved skill in the Labrador region, the Iberian Peninsula and south of Greenland for the lead times considered in this paper. For the Great Lakes region the skill increases when the predictor is under the influence of a cold phase. Some features in the spatial structure of the skill of the forecasts issued in the period of the Great Salinity Anomaly present similarities with those found for forecasts made during the cold phase of ENSO. The strength of the dependence on the Great Salinity Anomaly makes it very difficult to determine the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation.     

冰区海上风机支撑结构疲劳评估方法研究

采用谱分析的方法,对冰区作业的海上风机支撑结构进行疲劳损伤评估。基于风冰散布图,将海上风机所受的风载荷和连续挤压冰载荷作为系统输入,热点应力作为输出,运用随机振动理论与主应力线性化方法,对冰区海上风机支撑结构进行疲劳评估。以某2 MV海上风机支撑结构为计算实例,验证频域疲劳评估方法的准确性。频域方法与时域方法计算结果吻合较好,证明了频域方法的快速有效,可用于快速评估风机支撑结构的疲劳损伤。