Process-based modelling of a shoreface nourishment

A state-of-the-art process-based model is applied to hindcast the morphological development of a shoreface nourishment along the barrier island of Terschelling, The Netherlands. The applied morphodynamic model is Delft3D for fully three-dimensional flow and sediment transport in coastal environments. Owing to a complex geomorphological setting of the study area, the curvi-linear model includes adjacent tidal inlets and covers 40×70 km with an increasing grid size resolution towards the nourishment site in the center of the island. In 1993, a total of 2 Mm³ of sand was supplied to the nearshore bar zone off Terschelling, filling up the trough between the middle and outer bar. By spring 1994, most of the nourished sediment had been redistributed onshore and welded onto the middle bar where it remained in the following years. The morphodynamic model is applied to the prediction of this rapid nearshore profile behaviour. The calibration of the model against an extensive set of full-scale hydrodynamic data at several locations throughout the nearshore bar zone shows a good representation of the measured hydrodynamics. Morphodynamic results show a dependency on spatial scale: on the scale of precise bed level evolution with respect to bar migration and growth, model predictions are poor as the nearshore bars are predicted to flatten out. Resorting to bulk volumes integrated over larger spatial scales, the model clearly has skill in predicting the overall effects of the nourishment. The lack of phase shift between sediment transport and bathymetry is identified as the key controlling factor for the poor sandbar predictions.     

Improvement of morphodynamic modeling of tidal channel migration by nudging

State-of-the-art process-based models have shown to be applicable to the simulation and prediction of coastal morphodynamics. On annual to decadal temporal scales, these models may show limitations in reproducing complex natural morphological evolution patterns, such as the movement of bars and tidal channels, e.g. the observed decadal migration of the Medem Channel in the Elbe Estuary, German Bight. Here a morphodynamic model is shown to simulate the hydrodynamics and sediment budgets of the domain to some extent, but fails to adequately reproduce the pronounced channel migration, due to the insufficient implementation of bank erosion processes. In order to allow for long-term simulations of the domain, a nudging method has been introduced to update the model-predicted bathymetries with observations. The model-predicted bathymetry is nudged towards true states in annual time steps. Sensitivity analysis of a user-defined correlation length scale, for the definition of the background error covariance matrix during the nudging procedure, suggests that the optimal error correlation length is similar to the grid cell size, here 80–90 m. Additionally, spatially heterogeneous correlation lengths produce more realistic channel depths than do spatially homogeneous correlation lengths. Consecutive application of the nudging method compensates for the (stand-alone) model prediction errors and corrects the channel migration pattern, with a Brier skill score of 0.78. The proposed nudging method in this study serves as an analytical approach to update model predictions towards a predefined ‘true’ state for the spatiotemporal interpolation of incomplete morphological data in long-term simulations.     

Modelled channel patterns in a schematized tidal inlet

Tidal inlets in the Dutch Wadden Sea show typical morphological features, i.e. westward oriented main inlet channel and ebb-tidal delta. The objective of this study is to find the governing physical processes of these morphological features. The study uses a 2DH process-based morphodynamic model (Delft3D) on a schematized model domain, with dimensions similar to the Ameland inlet in the Dutch Wadden Sea.Starting from a flat bed the models are forced by tides only. Short-term simulations are made to explore the hydrodynamic characteristics and initial sedimentation and erosion patterns. Long-term morphodynamic simulations are employed to investigate the governing parameters of the main inlet channel and the ebb-tidal delta evolution. Sensitivity of the evolution is described in terms of initial inlet width (1.0 km and 3.5 km), direction and asymmetry of tidal forcing (M₂, M₄), transport formulations (Van Rijn, 1993; Engelund and Hansen, 1967) and relative position of the tidal basin with respect to the inlet (East (existing), Middle, and West).The results tend to produce morphological features typical to the Ameland inlet. The direction of tidal forcing is the main governing parameter to the present orientation of the main inlet channel and the ebb-tidal delta. The model results generally prove the conceptual hypotheses that describe the orientation of the main inlet channel and the ebb-tidal delta.     

Modelling storm hydrodynamics on gravel beaches with XBeach-G

In this paper we present a process-based numerical model for the prediction of storm hydrodynamics and hydrology on gravel beaches. The model comprises an extension of an existing open-source storm-impact model for sandy coasts (XBeach), through the application of (1) a non-hydrostatic pressure correction term that allows wave-by-wave modelling of the surface elevation and depth-averaged flow, and (2) a groundwater model that allows infiltration and exfiltration through the permeable gravel bed to be simulated, and is referred to as XBeach-G. Although the model contains validated sediment transport relations for sandy environments, transport relations for gravel in the model are currently under development and unvalidated. Consequently, all simulations in this paper are carried out without morphodynamic feedback. Modelled hydrodynamics are validated using data collected during a large-scale physical model experiment and detailed in-situ field data collected at Loe Bar, Cornwall, UK, as well as remote-sensed data collected at four gravel beach locations along the UK coast during the 2012–2013 storm season. Validation results show that the model has good skill in predicting wave transformation (overall SCI 0.14–0.21), run-up levels (SCI < 0.12; median error < 10%) and initial wave overtopping (85–90% prediction rate at barrier crest), indicating that the model can be applied to estimate potential storm impact on gravel beaches. The inclusion of the non-hydrostatic pressure correction term and groundwater model is shown to significantly improve the prediction and evolution of overtopping events.     

Prediction and assimilation of surf-zone processes using a Bayesian network: Part I: Forward models

Prediction of coastal processes, including waves, currents, and sediment transport, can be obtained from a variety of detailed geophysical-process models with many simulations showing significant skill. This capability supports a wide range of research and applied efforts that can benefit from accurate numerical predictions. However, the predictions are only as accurate as the data used to drive the models and, given the large temporal and spatial variability of the surf zone, inaccuracies in data are unavoidable such that useful predictions require corresponding estimates of uncertainty. We demonstrate how a Bayesian-network model can be used to provide accurate predictions of wave-height evolution in the surf zone given very sparse and/or inaccurate boundary-condition data. The approach is based on a formal treatment of a data-assimilation problem that takes advantage of significant reduction of the dimensionality of the model system. We demonstrate that predictions of a detailed geophysical model of the wave evolution are reproduced accurately using a Bayesian approach. In this surf-zone application, forward prediction skill was 83%, and uncertainties in the model inputs were accurately transferred to uncertainty in output variables. We also demonstrate that if modeling uncertainties were not conveyed to the Bayesian network (i.e., perfect data or model were assumed), then overly optimistic prediction uncertainties were computed. More consistent predictions and uncertainties were obtained by including model-parameter errors as a source of input uncertainty. Improved predictions (skill of 90%) were achieved because the Bayesian network simultaneously estimated optimal parameters while predicting wave heights.     

Biological influences on morphology and bed composition of an intertidal flat

Biological activity is known to influence sediment strength at bed–water interfaces. However, its precise effect on geomorphology and on bed composition is not known. This paper proposes a parameterization of sediment destabilizing and stabilizing organisms on three parameters that describe the erosion and mixing processes of the sediment bed, namely the critical bed shear stress, the erosion coefficient and the bioturbation coefficient. This parameterization is included in a 3D sand–mud morphodynamic model to form the sand–mud–bio model. The performance of the sand–mud–bio model is demonstrated by testing it on the Paulinapolder intertidal flat in the Western Scheldt estuary of The Netherlands. Model results show that biological influences on sediment strength result in significant morphological change and bed composition variations. Destabilizing organisms always cause a significant decrease in mud content in the bed and an increase of erosion. On the other hand, stabilizing organisms can, but do not necessarily, cause an increase of mud content and additional sedimentation.     

Verification of an operational ocean circulation-surface wave coupled forecasting system for the China's seas

An operational ocean circulation-surface wave coupled forecasting system for the seas off China and adjacent areas(OCFS-C) is developed based on parallelized circulation and wave models. It has been in operation since November 1, 2007. In this paper we comprehensively present the simulation and verification of the system, whose distinguishing feature is that the wave-induced mixing is coupled in the circulation model. In particular, with nested technique the resolution in the China's seas has been updated to(1/24)° from the global model with(1/2)°resolution. Besides, daily remote sensing sea surface temperature(SST) data have been assimilated into the model to generate a hot restart field for OCFS-C. Moreover, inter-comparisons between forecasting and independent observational data are performed to evaluate the effectiveness of OCFS-C in upper-ocean quantities predictions, including SST, mixed layer depth(MLD) and subsurface temperature. Except in conventional statistical metrics, non-dimensional skill scores(SS) is also used to evaluate forecast skill. Observations from buoys and Argo profiles are used for lead time and real time validations, which give a large SS value(more than 0.90). Besides, prediction skill for the seasonal variation of SST is confirmed. Comparisons of subsurface temperatures with Argo profiles data indicate that OCFS-C has low skill in predicting subsurface temperatures between 100 m and 150 m. Nevertheless, inter-comparisons of MLD reveal that the MLD from model is shallower than that from Argo profiles by about 12 m, i.e., OCFS-C is successful and steady in MLD predictions. Validation of 1-d, 2-d and 3-d forecasting SST shows that our operational ocean circulation-surface wave coupled forecasting model has reasonable accuracy in the upper ocean.     

Modeling erosion of sedimentary coasts in the western Russian Arctic

Morphodynamic modeling is employed in the present work to predict the long-term evolution (over the next 100 years) of typical sedimentary coasts in the western Russian Arctic. The studied objects are the coasts of Varandey (the Barents Sea), Baydaratskaya Bay and Harasavey (the Kara Sea). The model developed takes into account both the short-term processes (storm events) and long-term factors (for example, changes in sea level, inter-annual variations in gross sediment flux, lack or excess of sediment supply). Predicted and observed morphological changes in coastal profiles are shown to agree well for time scales ranging from weeks to decades. It is revealed that under given environmental conditions, the morphological evolution is strongly influenced by storm surges and associated wind-driven circulation. The water level gradient created by a surge generates a seaward flow at the bed. This outflow is shown to be an important destructive mechanism contributing to the erosion and recession of Arctic coasts. The rate of change is found to depend on both the exposure of the coast (relative to the direction of dominant winds) and its height above the sea. The open coast of Varandey is expected to retreat as much as 300–500 m over 100 years, while recession of the less exposed coasts of Baydaratskaya Bay would not exceed about 100 m/century. If long-term sediment losses are insignificant, the rate of erosion decays with time and the morphodynamic system may tend toward equilibrium. It is concluded that the expected relative sea-level rise (up to 1 m over the nearest 100 years) is non-crucial to the future coastal evolution if an erosion activity is already high enough.     

Morphodynamic modelling of open-sea tidal channels eroded into a sandy seabed, with reference to the channel systems on the China coast

In this contribution, the morphodynamics of open-sea tidal channels eroded into sandy seabed in regions of flow constriction is simulated by a one-dimensional model using the Bagnold formula for bedload transport rate, and accounting for the effect of bed slope. The results show that equilibrium conditions for such channels can be reached over a period of 10²–10³ years. Sediment eroded from the channel floor is transported in the direction of the dominant current, and deposited beyond the regions of flow constriction where the current looses competence due to spreading. In this way, the material remobilized from older strata in the channels is deposited in younger sand banks near the channel heads. Where several successive channels are incised along the current axis, they interact in their morphological evolution. The morphodynamic equilibrium of a tidal channel is reached once the combined interacting sedimentological and hydrodynamic factors, such as sediment particle diameter, tidal current velocity and flood/ebb dominance, are balanced. The model output shows that the equilibrium shape of the tidal channels appears to be related mainly to flow field characteristics and, to a lesser extent, to particle size. A positive correlation exists between the depth of the channels and their response times. The equilibrium water depths of the channels are more sensitive to current speed than to either particle size or the time–velocity asymmetry of the flow field. The response times for overall morphological equilibrium are sensitive to all of the above-mentioned parameters. In particular, sediment characteristics associated with critical current velocities have far-reaching effects on the morphodynamic behaviour of tidal channels.     

A residual analysis method for quantitative comparison of spatial data from the Iceland-Faeroes Front

A spatial statistical method has been developed from the well-known Kriging technique in geostatistics, as a way of providing quantitative comparison between a pair of spatial data sets, and a measure for such a comparison. This residual analysis method is applied to oceanographic data in order to compare Iceland-Faeroes Front (IFF) model predictions against appropriate field observations, with an aim to assess the IFF model performance and its prediction accuracy. The method is also used to evaluate the model-generated dynamical variability within the model predictions, as well as the natural variability within the frontal observations. From the results, it has been found that the IFF model is highly robust, and gives better predictions at depth 150–350 m than elsewhere. Within such a depth (i.e. 250–350 m), there is also evidence to suggest that the main frontal region is most active above the IF Ridge. The natural variability obtained from the observations appears to be comparable to the model-generated dynamical variability after 20 days of integration, indicating a certain degree of accuracy in the model predictions. The method reported in this paper could also be extended for further use in model data assimilation. Thus, the work not only demonstrates how spatial statistics can be applied to oceanographic data, but also opens up new statistical tools for data handling in ocean modelling.     

Mapping beach morphodynamics remotely: A novel application tested on South African sandy shores

Sandy beaches have been identified as threatened ecosystems but despite the need to conserve them, they have been generally overlooked. Systematic conservation planning (SCP) has emerged as an efficient method of selecting areas for conservation priority. However, SCP analyses require digital shapefiles of habitat and species diversity. Mapping these attributes for beaches from field data can take years and requires exhaustive resources. This study thus sought to derive a methodology to classify and map beach morphodynamic types from satellite imagery. Since beach morphodynamics is a strong predictor of macrofauna diversity, they could be considered a good surrogate for mapping beach biodiversity. A dataset was generated for 45 microtidal beaches (of known morphodynamic type) by measuring or coding for several physical characteristics from imagery acquired from Google Earth. Conditional inference trees revealed beach width to be the only factor that significantly predicted beach morphodynamic type, giving four categories: dissipative, dissipative-intermediate, intermediate and reflective. The derived model was tested by using it to predict the morphodynamic type of 28 other beaches of known classification. Model performance was good (75% prediction accuracy) but misclassifications occurred at the three breaks between the four categories. For beaches around these breaks, consideration of surf zone characteristics in addition to beach width ameliorated the misclassifications. The final methodology yielded a 93% prediction accuracy of beach morphodynamic type. Overlaying other considerations on this classification scheme could provide additional value to the layer, such that it also describes species’ spatial patterns. These could include: biogeographic regions, estuarine versus sandy beaches and short versus long beaches. The classification scheme was applied to the South African shoreline as a case study. The distribution of the beach morphodynamic types was partly influenced by geography. Most of the long, dissipative beaches are found along the west coast of the country, the south coast beaches are mostly dissipative-intermediate, and the east coast beaches range from short, estuarine pocket and embayed beaches in the former Transkei (south east), to longer intermediate and reflective beaches in KwaZulu-Natal (in the north east). Once combined with the three biogeographic regions, and distinguishing between estuarine and sandy shores, the South African coast comprised 24 different beach types. Representing shorelines in this form opens up potential for numerous spatial analyses that can not only further our understanding of sandy beach ecology at large spatial scales but also aid in deriving conservation strategies for this threatened ecosystem.     

一种具有SA预报能力的GPS KALMAN滤波器

对GPS定位中的SA误差作了系统辨识。表明：SA误差可用时变AR（p）模型表述，AR（p）的时变参数可由RLS算法结合F判据建立的AR（p）模型辨识机获得。用该方法获得的模型对SA误差进行预报。在剔除野值后精度在10m之内。还提出了一种将以AR（p）模型表述的SA误差加入GPSKALMAN滤波器的方法，可得到一种具有SA预报能力的GPSKALMAN滤波器。     

Estimation of infragravity waves at intermediate water depth

The accuracy of nearshore infragravity wave height model predictions has been investigated using a combination of the spectral short wave evolution model SWAN and a linear 1D SurfBeat model (IDSB). Data recorded by a wave rider located approximately 3.5 km from the coast at 18 m water depth have been used to construct the short wave frequency-directional spectra that are subsequently translated to approximately 8 m water depth with the third generation short wave model SWAN. Next the SWAN-computed frequency-directional spectra are used as input for IDSB to compute the infragravity response in the 0.01 Hz–0.05 Hz frequency range, generated by the transformation of the grouped short waves through the surf zone including bound long waves, leaky waves and edge waves at this depth. Comparison of the computed and measured infragravity waves in 8 m water depth shows an average skill of approximately 80%. Using data from a directional buoy located approximately 70 km offshore as input for the SWAN model results in an average infragravity prediction skill of 47%. This difference in skill is in a large part related to the under prediction of the short wave directional spreading by SWAN. Accounting for the spreading mismatch increases the skill to 70%. Directional analyses of the infragravity waves shows that outgoing infragravity wave heights at 8 m depth are generally over predicted during storm conditions suggesting that dissipation mechanisms in addition to bottom friction such as non-linear energy transfer and long wave breaking may be important. Provided that the infragravity wave reflection at the beach is close to unity and tidal water level modulations are modest, a relatively small computational effort allows for the generation of long-term infragravity data sets at intermediate water depths. These data can subsequently be analyzed to establish infragravity wave height design criteria for engineering facilities exposed to the open ocean, such as nearshore tanker offloading terminals at coastal locations.     

Exploring conventional tidal prediction schemes for improved coastal numerical forecast modeling

This study provides a practical guide to the use of classical tidal prediction algorithms in coastal numerical forecasting models such as tide and tide-storm-surge models. Understanding tidal prediction parameter formulas and their limitations is key to successfully modifying and upgrading tidal prediction modules in order to increase the accuracy of perpetual interannual simulations and, in particular, storm-surge modeling studies for tide-dominated coastal environments. The algorithms for the fundamental prediction parameters, the five astronomical variables, used in tidal prediction are collated and tested. Comparisons between their estimation using different parameterizations shows that these methods yield essentially the same results for the period 1900–2099, revealing all are applicable for tidal forecasting simulation. Through experiments using a numerical model and a harmonic prediction program, the effects of nodal modulation correction and its update period on prediction accuracy and sensitivity are examined and discussed using a case study of the tidally-dominated coastal regime off the west coast of Korea. Results indicate that this correction needs updating within <30 days for accurate perpetual interannual tidal and mean sea-level predictions, and storm-surge model predictions requiring centimeter accuracy, for tidally-dominated coastal regimes. Otherwise, unacceptable systematic errors occur.     

Investigating the ENSO prediction skills of the Beijing Climate Center climate prediction system version 2

The El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) ensemble prediction skills of the Beijing Climate Center(BCC) climate prediction system version 2(BCC-CPS2) are examined for the period from 1991 to 2018. The upper-limit ENSO predictability of this system is quantified by measuring its “potential” predictability using information-based metrics, whereas the actual prediction skill is evaluated using deterministic and probabilistic skill measures.Results show that:(1) In general, the current operational BCC ...     

Physical determinants of intertidal communities on dissipative beaches: Implications of sea-level rise

Sea-level rise is likely to cause significant changes in the morphodynamic state of beaches in the higher latitudes, resulting in steeper beaches with larger particle sizes. These physical changes have implications for beach invertebrate communities, which are determined largely by sediment particle size, and hence for ecosystem function. Previous studies have explored the relationships between invertebrate communities and environmental variables such as particle size, beach slope and exposure to wave action, and often these physical variables can be integrated in various indices of morphodynamic state. Most of these studies incorporated a full range of beach types that included wave-dominated surf beaches, where the wave action is harsh enough to enable reliable estimates of breaker height, a parameter included in several of the indices, and concluded that more dissipative beaches with gentler slopes and finer particle sizes often support a higher number of species and greater abundance than more reflective beaches. Whether these predictions remain valid for less wave-dominated beaches, where breaker height is more difficult to determine, is uncertain. In the present study, the abundance of meio- and macrofauna was quantified across a range of beaches in the UK, which are generally towards the lower energy end of the morphodynamic gradient, and their relationships with beach physical properties explored. No significant relationships were found between abundance and the standard morphodynamic indices, but significant relationships were found for both macro- and meiofaunal abundance when these indices were combined with an exposure index (derived from velocity, direction, duration and the effective fetch). All the relationships identified between abundance and combined morphodynamic indices indicated a higher abundance of both macro- and meiofauna on the more dissipative beaches. The reverse was however found for species richness. If predictions that accelerated sea-level rise will move beaches towards a more reflective morphodynamic state are correct, this could lead to declines in the abundance of meio- and macrofauna, with potential adverse consequences for ecosystem functioning.     

印度洋海表盐度预报的线性马尔可夫模型及其改进办法

海洋盐度在水循环、海洋环流、海洋生态系统、全球天气和气候变化等方面起着至关重要的作用。然而,受观测的限制,以往对海洋盐度的研究相对匮乏,对其进行预报的工作更为少见。本文采用线性马尔可夫模型对印度洋海表面盐度(sea surface salinity,SSS)开展初步的预报工作。根据混合层盐度收支方程,选择海表面高度(sea surface height,SSH)、海表面温度(sea surface temperature,SST)、SSS等物理量的异常值作为模型的组成部分,对印度洋SSS开展预报工作。结果表明,马尔可夫模型可提前9个月对印度洋SSS进行较好的预报。此外,南太平洋海表面温度异常(sea surface temperature anomaly,SSTA),海表面高度异常(sea surface height anomaly,SSHA)和印度洋偶极子(Indian Ocean dipole,IOD)系数等遥相关因素的加入可将线性马尔可夫预报对印度洋SSS的预报效果(相关系数)平均提高10%。利用改进的模型对印度洋SSS进行提前1～11个月的“实时”预测,得出预报的SSS时空变...     

Statistical analysis and forecasts of long-term sandbank evolution at Great Yarmouth, UK

A data-driven model has been developed to analyse the long-term evolution of a sandbank system and to make ensemble predictions in a period of 8 years. The method uses a combination of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, (to define spatial and temporal patterns of variability), jack-knife resampling, (to generate an ensemble of EOFs), a causal auto-regression technique, (to extrapolate the temporal eigenfunctions), and straightforward statistical analysis of the resulting ensemble of predictions to determine a ‘forecast’ and associated uncertainty. The methodology has been applied to a very demanding site which includes a curved shoreline and a group of mobile nearshore sandbanks. The site is on the eastern coast of the UK and includes the Great Yarmouth sandbanks and neighbouring shoreline. A sequence of 33 high quality historical survey charts reaching back to 1848 have been used to analyse the patterns and to predict morphological evolution of the sandbank system. The forecasts demonstrate an improved skill relative to an assumption of persistence, but suffer in locations where there are propagating features in the morphology that are not well-described by EOFs.     

复式河道滩地植物对水流紊动结构影响的试验研究

利用室内变坡水槽,精细模拟了复式河道滩地不同植物对漫滩水流的干扰作用,并借助声学多普勒测速仪(ADV)观测了不同垂线、不同测点的瞬时流速,计算了水质点三维相对紊动强度,分析了其变化特征,探讨了滩地不同种类植物对水流内部结构的影响。试验发现,滩地植物改变了复式河道水流内部结构,导致植物带内近床面处各个方向水流相对紊动强度明显减弱,横向因植物丛内阻力和流速变化引起的滩区壅水导致横比降增加,主槽相对紊动强度显著增强;植物淹没条件下水流相对紊动强度沿水深的分布明显存在转折点,此位置可以认为是滩地植物对水流影响的“第二边界”。     

Morphodynamic upscaling with the MORFAC approach: Dependencies and sensitivities

The recently developed Morphological Acceleration Factor (MORFAC) approach for morphodynamic upscaling enables numerical model simulations of coastal evolution at decadal to millennial time scales. Primarily due to the massive increase in modeling time scales it affords, the MORFAC approach is now standard in state-of-the-art commercially available coastal morphodynamic modeling suites. However, the general validity of the MORFAC concept for coastal applications has not yet been comprehensively investigated. Furthermore, a robust and objective method (as opposed to the subjective and inelegant trial and error method) for the a priori determination of the highest MORFAC that is suitable for a given simulation (i.e. critical MORFAC) does not currently exist. This communication presents some initial results of an ongoing, long-term study that attempts to rigorously and methodically investigate the limitations and strengths of the MORFAC approach. Based on the results of a strategically designed numerical modeling exercise using the morphodynamic model Delft3D, two main outcomes are presented. First, the main dependencies and sensitivities of the MORFAC approach to fundamental forcing conditions and model parameters are elucidated. Second, a criterion based on the Courant–Friedrichs–Levy (CFL) condition for bed form propagation that maybe used as a guide to determine the critical MORFAC a priori is proposed.