An analysis of cropland mask choice and ancillary data for annual corn yield forecasting using MODIS data

The Midwestern United States is one of the world’s most important corn-producing regions. Monitoring and forecasting of corn yields in this intensive agricultural region are important activities to support food security, commodity markets, bioenergy industries, and formation of national policies. This study aims to develop forecasting models that have the capability to provide mid-season prediction of county-level corn yields for the entire Midwestern United States. We used multi-temporal MODIS NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) 16-day composite data as the primary input, with digital elevation model (DEM) and parameter-elevation relationships on independent slopes model (PRISM) climate data as additional inputs. The DEM and PRISM data, along with three types of cropland masks were tested and compared to evaluate their impacts on model predictive accuracy. Our results suggested that the use of general cropland masks (e.g., summer crop or cultivated crops) generated similar results compared with use of an annual corn-specific mask. Leave-one-year-out cross-validation resulted in an average R² of 0.75 and RMSE value of 1.10 t/ha. Using a DEM as an additional model input slightly improved performance, while inclusion of PRISM climate data appeared not to be important for our regional corn-yield model. Furthermore, our model has potential for real-time/early prediction. Our corn yield esitmates are available as early as late July, which is an improvement upon previous corn-yield prediction models. In addition to annual corn yield forecasting, we examined model uncertainties through spatial and temporal analysis of the model's predictive error distribution. The magnitude of predictive error (by county) appears to be associated with the spatial patterns of corn fields in the study area.     

河南农田生产力时空变化的遥感分析

文章基于MODIS下MOD17 A3、MCD12Q1产品,结合气温、降水数据,利用距平分析、趋势线分析以及相关分析等方法,对河南省2001年至2010年农田生产力的时空变化格局及影响因素进行了研究.结果表明:河南省农田生产力整体呈现东南高、西北低的态势;研究期内农田生产力呈现减少趋势的面积比例为4.98％,集中分布在信阳市的潢川县、固始县;河南省大部分农田的NPP与气温成正相关,成负相关的农田集中分布在西北边缘一带;农田NPP与降水成正相关的区域分布偏北,成负相关区域分布偏南,南阳盆地一带较为集中.     

MODIS NDVI和AVHRR NDVI 对草原植被变化监测差异

以草地作为研究载体,对比分析草原植被AVHRR NDVI和MODIS NDVI两种NDVI序列的年内、年际变化特征,讨论两种NDVI序列对降水量、平均气温和水汽压3种气候因子的响应差异,为合理选择NDVI序列对植被进行监测研究提供参考。结果表明：(1)两种NDVI序列所反映的草原植被年内变化趋势相似,但MODIS NDVI对各类草原的区分度优于AVHRR NDVI;(2)两种NDVI序列所反映的2000年—2003年草原植被年际变化差异明显。较之于MODIS NDVI,AVHRR NDVI变化趋势分类图表现出更强的植被改善趋势,植被改善面积在AVHRR NDVI变化趋势分类图中占94.25%,在MODIS NDVI中为83.33%;两种NDVI变化趋势分类图反映的植被变化趋势吻合度为52.88%。(3)两种NDVI序列与水汽压、降水量相关性差异显著。MODIS NDVI与各站点平均气温的相关系数均大于GIMMS NDVI;而MODIS NDVI与水汽压的相关系数83%(10个站点)小于GIMMS NDVI,与降水量的相关系数67%(8个站点)小于GIMMS NDVI。     

Vegetation chlorophyll estimates in the Amazon from multi-angle MODIS observations and canopy reflectance model

As a preparatory study for future hyperspectral missions that can measure canopy chemistry, we introduce a novel approach to investigate whether multi-angle Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data can be used to generate a preliminary database with long-term estimates of chlorophyll. MODIS monthly chlorophyll estimates between 2000 and 2015, derived from a fully coupled canopy reflectance model (ProSAIL), were inspected for consistency with eddy covariance fluxes, tower-based hyperspectral images and chlorophyll measurements. MODIS chlorophyll estimates from the inverse model showed strong seasonal variations across two flux-tower sites in central and eastern Amazon. Marked increases in chlorophyll concentrations were observed during the early dry season. Remotely sensed chlorophyll concentrations were correlated to field measurements (r² = 0.73 and r² = 0.98) but the data deviated from the 1:1 line with root mean square errors (RMSE) ranging from 0.355 μg cm⁻² (Tapajós tower) to 0.470 μg cm⁻² (Manaus tower). The chlorophyll estimates were consistent with flux tower measurements of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and net ecosystem productivity (NEP). We also applied ProSAIL to mono-angle hyperspectral observations from a camera installed on a tower to scale modeled chlorophyll pigments to MODIS observations (r² = 0.73). Chlorophyll pigment concentrations (Chl_A+B) were correlated to changes in the amount of young and mature leaf area per month (0.59 ≤  r² ≤  0.64). Increases in MODIS observed Chl_A+B were preceded by increased PAR during the dry season (0.61 ≤ r² ≤  0.62) and followed by changes in net carbon uptake. We conclude that, at these two sites, changes in LAI, coupled with changes in leaf chlorophyll, are comparable with seasonality of plant productivity. Our results allowed the preliminary development of a 15-year time series of chlorophyll estimates over the Amazon to support canopy chemistry studies using future hyperspectral sensors.     

黑河流域遥感物候产品验证与分析

植被物候遥感产品对全球变化响应、农业生产管理、生态学的应用等多领域研究具有重要意义。但现有植被物候遥感产品还有较多问题,主要包括一方面使用不同参数的时间序列数据以及不同提取算法导致的产品结果差异较大,另一方面在地面验证中地面观测数据与遥感反演数据的物理含义不一致导致的验证方法的系统性误差。本文以黑河流域为研究区,对比验证基于EVI(Enhanced Vegetation Index)时间序列数据提取的MLCD(MODIS global land cover dynamics product)植被遥感物候产品和基于LAI(Leaf Area Index)时间序列数据提取的UMPM(product by universal multi-life-cycle phenology monitoring method)植被遥感物候产品的有效性及精度等。同时,通过验证分析进一步评估基于EVI和LAI时间序列提取的物候特征的差异及特点,探讨由于地面观测植被物候与遥感提取植被物候的物理意义的不一致问题导致的直接验证结果偏差。结果表明:UMPM产品有效性整体高于MLCD产品,但在以草地和灌木为主的稀疏植被区,由于LAI取值精度的原因,UMPM产品存在较多缺失数据,且时空稳定性较低;基于玉米地面观测数据表明,EVI对植被开始生长的信号比LAI更加敏感,更适合提取生长起点,但植被指数易饱和,峰值起点普遍提前,基于LAI提取的峰值起点更加合理。由于地面观测的物候期在后期更加关注果实生长,遥感观测仅关注叶片的生长,遥感定义的峰值终点和生长终点与玉米的乳熟期和成熟期差异较大。     

珠三角地区长时间序列气溶胶时空变化特征分析

本文通过对2000年—2013年长时间序列的MODIS气溶胶产品进行统计,分析了珠三角地区气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)和细粒子光学厚度(FAOD)的空间分布特征以及年度和季节变化特点,有助于深入研究珠三角地区颗粒物污染水平变化及颗粒物的排放与输送等。研究结果显示珠三角地区中部为AOD高值区,东西两翼地区为AOD低值区。AOD和FAOD的最高值通常分别出现在春季和秋季,最低值则通常都出现在冬季。2006年之后,珠三角地区大气气溶胶总消光虽在部分年份仍有反弹上升的现象出现,但已有明显降低。然而,该地区细粒子消光在2000年—2012年期间则呈逐年增加的趋势,且其空间差异性也越加显著,细颗粒物污染仍需进一步控制。     

Intercomparison and validation of MODIS and GLASS leaf area index (LAI) products over mountain areas: A case study in southwestern China

The validation study of leaf area index (LAI) products over rugged surfaces not only gives additional insights into data quality of LAI products, but deepens understanding of uncertainties regarding land surface process models depended on LAI data over complex terrain. This study evaluated the performance of MODIS and GLASS LAI products using the intercomparison and direct validation methods over southwestern China. The spatio-temporal consistencies, such as the spatial distributions of LAI products and their statistical relationship as a function of topographic indices, time, and vegetation types, respectively, were investigated through intercomparison between MODIS and GLASS products during the period 2011–2013. The accuracies and change ranges of these two products were evaluated against available LAI reference maps over 10 sampling regions which standed for typical vegetation types and topographic gradients in southwestern China.The results show that GLASS LAI exhibits higher percentage of good quality data (i.e. successful retrievals) and smoother temporal profiles than MODIS LAI. The percentage of successful retrievals for MODIS and GLASS is vulnerable to topographic indices, especially to relief amplitude. Besides, the two products do not capture seasonal dynamics of crop, especially in spring over heterogeneously hilly regions. The yearly mean LAI differences between MODIS and GLASS are within ±0.5 for 64.70% of the total retrieval pixels over southwestern China. The spatial distribution of mean differences and temporal profiles of these two products are inclined to be dominated by vegetation types other than topographic indices. The spatial and temporal consistency of these two products is good over most area of grasses/cereal crops; however, it is poor for evergreen broadleaf forest. MODIS presents more reliable change range of LAI than GLASS through comparison with fine resolution reference maps over most of sampling regions. The accuracies of direct validation are obtained for GLASS LAI (r = 0.35, RMSE = 1.72, mean bias = −0.71) and MODIS LAI (r = 0.49, RMSE = 1.75, mean bias = −0.67). GLASS performs similarly to MODIS, but may be marginally inferior to MODIS based on our direct validation results. The validation experience demonstrates the necessity and importance of topographic consideration for LAI estimation over mountain areas. Considerable attention will be paid to the improvements of surface reflectance, retrieval algorithm and land cover types so as to enhance the quality of LAI products in topographically complex terrain.     

Identifying a suitable combination of classification technique and bandwidth(s) for burned area mapping in tallgrass prairie with MODIS imagery

Prescribed fire is crucial to the ecology and maintenance of tallgrass prairie, and its application affects a variety of human and natural systems. Consequently, maps showing the location and extent of these fires are critical to managing tallgrass prairies in a manner that balances the needs of all stakeholders. Satellite-based optical remote sensing can provide the necessary input for this mapping, but it requires the development mapping methods that are specific to tallgrass prairie. In this research, we devise and test a suitable mapping method by comparing the efficacy of seven combinations of bands and indices from the MODIS sensor using both pixel and object-based classification methods. Due to the relatively small size of many prescribed fires in tallgrass prairie, scenarios based on the 250 m spatial resolution red and NIR bands outperformed those based on the coarser 500 m spatial resolution bands, and a combination of both red and NIR performed better than each 250 m band individually. Object-based classification offered no improvement over pixel-based classification, and performed poorer in some cases. Our results suggest that mapping burned areas in tallgrass prairie should be done at a minimum of 250 m spatial resolution, should used a pixel-based classification technique, and should use a combination of red and NIR.     

MODIS气溶胶C004、C005产品的对比分析及其在中国北方地区的适用性评价

详细介绍了MODIS气溶胶C005产品算法的改进情况。选择北京、榆林为试验区, 利用AERONET地基观测的气溶胶光学厚度数据, 对比分析了上午星TERRA、下午星AQUA的MODIS气溶胶C004、C005新旧产品的精度, 评价了它们在中国北方地区的适用性。采用波长插值、时空匹配将地基数据和MODIS 气溶胶产品匹配在一起, 然后采用线性拟合的方法进行对比分析。文中就MODIS气溶胶产品和地基数据的时空匹配, 摒弃了NASA关于MODIS气溶胶产品在全球所采用的方法, 引入当地月平均风速, 提出了中国北方地区时空匹配尺度。对比分析以及评价结果表明: (1) C005产品算法的改进并没有提高北京站点气溶胶光学厚度的精度, 在AOT<0.8时反而是下降的; C004、C005产品在北京站点不具有显著适用性, 但C004比C005产品效果好。(2) 榆林站点, TERRA-MODIS C004产品能够达到需求标准, 而AQUA-MODIS C004精度有所下降; 两星的C005产品精度较C004有很大程度的改善, 470、550、660nm 3个波段的气溶胶光学厚度与AERONET地基观测数据的相关系数均高于0.9, 具有显著适用性。这说明了新算法所采用的确定地表反射率的方法在植被覆盖好的地区是可行的, 在高反射地区效果不好。     

Assessment of the abnormal growth of floating macrophytes in Winam Gulf (Kenya) by using MODIS imagery time series

The objective of this research study is to assess the capability of time-series of MODIS imagery to provide information suitable for enhancing the understanding of the temporal cycles shown by the abnormal growth of the floating macrophytes in order to support monitoring and management action of Lake Victoria water resources.The proliferation of invasive plants and aquatic weeds is of growing concern. Starting from 1989, Lake Victoria has been interested by the high infestation of water hyacinth with significant socio-economic impact on riparian populations.In this paper, we describe an approach based on the time-series of MODIS to derive the temporal behaviour, the abundance and distribution of the floating macrophytes in the Winam Gulf (Kenyan portion of the Lake Victoria) and its possible links to the concentrations of the main water constituencies.To this end, we consider the NDVI values computed from the MODIS imagery time-series from 2000 to 2009 to identify the floating macrophytes cover and an appropriate bio-optical model to retrieve, by means of an inverse procedure, the concentrations of chlorophyll a, coloured dissolved organic matter and total suspended solid.The maps of the floating vegetation based on the NDVI values allow us to assess the spatial and temporal dynamics of the weeds with high time resolution.A floating vegetation index (FVI) has been introduced for describing the weeds pollution level.The results of the analysis show a consistent temporal relation between the water constituent concentrations within the Winam Gulf and the FVI, especially in the proximity of the greatest proliferation of floating vegetation in the last 10 years that occurred between the second half of 2006 and the first half of 2007.The adopted approach will be useful to implement an automatic system for monitoring and predicting the floating macrophytes proliferation in Lake Victoria.     

基于MODIS的2001年—2012年北京热岛足迹及容量动态监测

利用2001年—2012年MODIS分裂窗算法反演得到的1 km分辨率地表温度产品分析了北京城市热岛效应。首先计算北京2001年—2012年地表温度年平均值,其次利用半径法确定热岛足迹并计算热岛容量。结论如下:(1)热岛足迹及热岛容量昼夜差异明显,2012年白天热岛足迹是夜间的1.5倍,这是由于城市下垫面热特性差异及人为活动的综合影响。(2)2001年—2012年北京城市高温区在空间上向南北扩展,热岛足迹和热岛容量呈阶段性增长。2010年白天热岛足迹最大,半径为28 km,面积是2001年的2.4倍。当热岛足迹相同时,城市绿地和水体功能区的分布和布局方式等因素能够影响热岛容量。城市建设用地和农村居民点对城市热环境贡献率明显高于其他土地利用类型。当建设用地面积比例超过50%时,区域会产生显著的热岛现象。(3)根据北京热岛足迹及容量时空动态变化特征,提出改善城市热岛的措施。     

三江源地区基于MODIS数据地表温度与土地覆盖定量关系研究

以三江源自然保护区为研究区,基于MODIS L1 B数据,采用劈窗算法反演地表温度,分析了地表温度空间分布的特征,与计算得到的归一化植被指数进行回归分析。结果表明地表温度与归一化植被指数存在很好的负相关性。分析讨论了地表温度的空间分布与土地覆盖及其他影响因子之间存在的定量关系,探讨了植被生产力与气候变化之间的相互作用以及发展趋势。研究结果有利于三江源湿地的生态保护,可为土地覆盖的动态监测提供有力的科学参考。     

A comparative analysis of the NDVIg and NDVI3g in monitoring vegetation phenology changes in the Northern Hemisphere

Phenology is a sensitive and critical feature of vegetation and is a good indicator for climate change studies. The global inventory modelling and mapping studies (GIMMS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) has been the most widely used data source for monitoring of the vegetation dynamics over large geographical areas in the past two decades. With the release of the third version of the NDVI (GIMMS NDVI3g) recently, it is important to compare the NDVI3g data with those of the previous version (NDVIg) to link existing studies with future applications of the NDVI3g in monitoring vegetation phenology. In this study, the three most popular satellite start of vegetation growing season (SOS) extraction methods were used, and the differences between SOSg and SOS3g arising from the methods were explored. The amplitude and the peak values of the NDVI3g are higher than those of the NDVIg curve, which indicated that the SOS derived from the NDVIg (SOSg) was significantly later than that derived from the NDVI3g (SOS3g) based on all the methods, for the whole northern hemisphere. In addition, SOSg and SOS3g both showed an advancing trend during 1982–2006, but that trend was more significant with SOSg than with SOS3g in the results from all three methods. In summary, the difference between SOSg and SOS3g (in the multi-year mean SOS, SOS change slope and the turning point in the time series) varied among the methods and was partly related to latitude. For the multi-year mean SOS, the difference increased with latitude intervals in the low latitudes (0–30°N) and decreased in the mid- and high-latitude intervals. The GIMMS NDVI3g data-sets seemed more sensitive than the GIMMS NDVIg in detecting information about the ground, and the SOS3g data were better correlated both with the in situ observations and the SOS derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer NDVI. For the northern hemisphere, previous satellite measures (SOS derived from GIMMS NDVIg) may have overestimated the advancing trend of the SOS by an average of 0.032 d yr^–1.     

Bathymetrical influences on spatial and temporal characteristics of chlorophyll-a concentrations in the Southern Ocean from 2002 to 2012 (October to March) using MODIS

Phytoplankton blooms, particularly in the Southern Ocean, can have significant impact on global biogeochemistry cycling. To investigate the accuracy of chlorophyll-a distribution, and to better understand the spatial and temporal dynamics of phytoplankton biomass, we examine chlorophyll-a estimates (October–March from 2002 to 2012) derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) data following the ocean chlorophyll-a 3 model (OC3M) algorithm. Noticeable seasonality occurs in the temporal distribution of chlorophyll-a concentrations, which shows the highest value in December and January and an increasing tendency during the 2002–2012 period. The spatial distribution of chlorophyll-a varies greatly with latitude, as higher latitudes experience more phytoplankton blooms (chlorophyll-a concentration larger than 1 mg/m³) and marginal seas (Ross Sea and Amundsen Sea) show different bloom anomalies caused by two dominant algae species. Areas at higher latitudes and shallow water (<500 m) experience the shorter ice-free periods with greater seasonality. A noticeable bathymetry gradient exists at 2500-m isobaths, while water at the 500–2500-m depth experiences quite long ice-free periods with a stable water environment. Blooms generally occur near topographic features where currents have strong interactions when the water depth is more than 2500 m. Based on these findings, we can classify the Southern Ocean into two bloom subregions, 0–500 m as an enhanced bloom zone (EBZ), and 500–2500 m as a moderate bloom zone (MBZ). The EBZ has a quite high-bloom probability of about 30%, while the MBZ has only 10%.     

基于MODIS影像的陆地辐射雾微物理参数反演及动态变化分析

作为一种常见的气象灾害,雾灾严重的影响了人们交通出行等日常生活。基于遥感影像反演的雾微物理参数可在一定程度反映雾灾的发展状况和严重程度,进而对大雾进行有效的监测和预测。本文选取发生于华北地区2007年11月24日13时10分的陆地辐射雾MODIS影像作为试验数据,在大雾生消机理和遥感影像信息提取基础上,构建了大雾路径辐射模型和微物理参数反演算法,成功反演出能见度、含水量、有效粒子半径3个微物理参数,并在湖北省气象局提供的地面观测数据基础上对能见度进行了地面数据验证,得到两者的相关系数为0．9366．地面数据与反演结果相关性较大,数值误差较小,说明反演方法具有可行性。本文进一步应用该模型对发生于华北地区2007年11月21日至11月26日的一次陆地辐射雾MODIS时间序列影像反演微物理参数并进行动态变化分析,总结出大雾具有爆发性产生和重复阶段性发展的特点,能见度主要受大气辐射和水汽供给的影响。其值在50～130m之间变化,和平均含水量、有效粒子半径成反比例关系,共同反映出雾灾的严重程度和发展阶段。     

基于MODIS植被指数的塔河流域植被时空变化特征研究

基于获取的塔河流域2000~2014年历年4~10月间逐月MODIS植被指数产品,采用时间序列谐波分析法(HANTS)对最大值合成的逐月NDVI时间序列数据进行了重建,用趋势线分析法对塔河流域近15年生长季(4~10月)MODIS NDVI的时间变化进行计算,用一元线性回归趋势法计算得到了塔河流域近15年生长季(4~10月)NDVI变化趋势的空间分布。结合植被类型分布图对计算得到的实验结果进行了研究分析,总结了塔河流域多年植被覆盖的时空分布及其变化规律,成果可为塔河流域综合治理及生态环境评价提供依据。     

Sentinel-2 red-edge spectral indices (RESI) suitability for mapping rubber boom in Luang Namtha Province,northern Lao PDR

Rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) tree cultivation is being continuously expanded northward by replacing evergreen forests and swidden-related regenerated vegetation across the uplands of mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA), e.g., Laos, a landlocked mountainous country. The non-native tree establishment in the northern tropical edge, or the non-traditional suitable planting area, provides stable supplies of natural latex, yet also leads to severe ecological degradation and environmental effects in water conservation, soil quality, rainforest fragmentation and biodiversity. Rubber plantations in the northern part of MSEA are normally characterized by periodic deciduous during the dry season, along with a lengthy defoliation-foliation duration, because of seasonal variations in temperature and precipitation. It thus lays a phenological and physiological base for dynamics monitoring with common multispectral (e.g., near-infrared and short-wave infrared bands) satellites, particularly Landsat. However, whether Sentinel-2 red-edge based algorithms are suitable for discriminating rubber plantations is not yet exclusively reported. Here, we developed a red-edge spectral indices (RESI) method through the normalization of three red-edge bands and applied it to identify and map rubber plantations in Luang Namtha Province of northern Laos, where a rubber boom begun in the mid-2000s. The RESI algorithm highlights the sensitivity of red-edge bands to the changes in moisture content and canopy density of rubber plantations. The area of mature rubber plantations was estimated to be 771.2 km² in this province bordering southwest China in 2018, which was nearly twice as much as that of 2011, with the overall accuracy and kappa coefficient up to 92.50% and 0.91, respectively. Our phenology-based RESI approach not only indicates that Sentinel-2 imagery holds significant potential for monitoring rubber plantations, but also improves the remotely-sensed methods of rubber boom mapping via introducing the red-edge channel.     

基于FY-2F数据的中国区域地表温度日变化模型评价及特征研究

地表温度日变化模型作为非常重要的输入参数在气象、水文、生态等领域研究中具有重要意义。风云二号(FY-2F)静止气象卫星的地表温度产品的时间分辨率为1小时,这为拟合精确的地表温度日变化(DSTC)模型提供了可能。本文首先利用194个气象站点对应的2014年的FY-2F地表温度产品评价了GOT01、VAN06、JNG06、INA08、GOT09和GEM_V这6种地表温度日变化模型在中国区的模拟精度,对不同时间窗口和不同地表覆盖类型拟合精度的差异进行了分析;其次,选用JNG06模型探究了中国区域地表温度随经纬度、季节和地表覆盖类型的日变化规律。研究结果表明:在不同时间窗口内,GOT09模型获得了全局最优的拟合精度,均方根误差为0.89 K;JNG06和GEM_V模型精度次之,均方根误差分别为0.92 K和0.94 K;GOT01、INA08和VAN06模型精度最差;各模型在城市和建筑区、农用地和自然植被以及常绿阔叶林这3类地表覆盖类型的拟合精度最好,其均方根误差在0.89—0.92 K,在其余地表覆盖类型的拟合精度在1.0 K以上。JNG06模型模拟的地表温度在4种典型的地表类型随纬度的变化规律较为明显,地表温度在1月份随纬度变化较为剧烈,在7月份整体波动较为平缓。综上所述,使用FY-2F地表温度产品建立的DSTC模型在中国区域具有较高的精度,模拟的地表温度随着纬度变化的规律较为明显。使用本文模型既可以纠正现有模型又可获取归一化地表温度产品,同时可以检验和标定陆面模式地表温度模拟结果。     

An improved dark object method to retrieve 500 m-resolution AOT (Aerosol Optical Thickness) image from MODIS data: A case study in the Pearl River Delta area,China

This paper presents an improved Dark Dense Vegetation (DDV) method for retrieving 500 m-resolution aerosol optical depth (AOT) based on MOD04-C005 arithmetic with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The improvements include change of the movement pattern of retrieval window, selection of a more suitable aerosol type, and storage of the look-up table. The method is then applied to obtain the AOT over the Pearl River Delta region (PRD). By comparing the results with the co-temporal ground sunphotometer observations in 2010, the correlation coefficient is found to be 0.794 with RMSE 0.139 and their variations remain consistent. Contrasts between model values in 2008 and MODIS AOT products in the same date also reveal a high accuracy of the improved DDV method. We also performed sensitivity tests to analyze the impacts of several parameters on apparent reflectance at different bands, and the results show that apparent reflectance is much more sensitive to surface reflectance and AOT than to elevation.     

Estimating spatio-temporal air temperature in London (UK) using machine learning and earth observation satellite data

Urbanisation generates greater population densities and an increase in anthropogenic heat generation. These factors elevate the urban–rural air temperature (T_a) difference, thus generating the Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon. T_a is used in the fields of public health and epidemiology to quantify deaths attributable to heat in cities around the world: the presence of UHI can exacerbate exposure to high temperatures during summer periods, thereby increasing the risk of heat-related mortality. Measuring and monitoring the spatial patterns of T_a in urban contexts is challenging due to the lack of a good network of weather stations. This study aims to produce a parsimonious model to retrieve maximum T_a (T_max) at high spatio-temporal resolution using Earth Observation (EO) satellite data. The novelty of this work is twofold: (i) it will produce daily estimations of T_max for London at 1 km² during the summertime between 2006 and 2017 using advanced statistical techniques and satellite-derived predictors, and (ii) it will investigate for the first time the predictive power of the gradient boosting algorithm to estimate T_max for an urban area. In this work, 6 regression models were calibrated with 6 satellite products, 3 geospatial features, and 29 meteorological stations. Stepwise linear regression was applied to create 9 groups of predictors, which were trained and tested on each regression method. This study demonstrates the potential of machine learning algorithms to predict T_max: the gradient boosting model with a group of five predictors (land surface temperature, Julian day, normalised difference vegetation index, digital elevation model, solar zenith angle) was the regression model with the best performance (R² = 0.68, MAE = 1.60 °C, and RMSE = 2.03 °C). This methodological approach is capable of being replicated in other UK cities, benefiting national heat-related mortality assessments since the data (provided by NASA and the UK Met Office) and programming languages (Python) sources are free and open. This study provides a framework to produce a high spatio-temporal resolution of T_max, assisting public health researchers to improve the estimation of mortality attributable to high temperatures. In addition, the research contributes to practice and policy-making by enhancing the understanding of the locations where mortality rates may increase due to heat. Therefore, it enables a more informed decision-making process towards the prioritisation of actions to mitigate heat-related mortality amongst the vulnerable population.