The potential for dive tourism led entrepreneurial marine protected areas in Curacao

Despite the successful establishment of marine protected areas in the Netherlands Antilles, such as Saba and Bonaire, government-led protection of the reefs surrounding Curacao has repeatedly failed. In the absence of effective state regulation, dive operations have taken de facto control over dive sites, establishing conservation through a range of private initiatives akin to what have been referred to as entrepreneurial marine protected areas (EMPAs). The paper analyses the potential of these EMPAs to regulate access and control to dive sites and good diver practices. Using data from interviews with key actors in the dive industry and a survey of tourist divers the paper shows that achieving an island wide system of EMPAs is dependent on issues related to ownership over the reef, geographical location, and market competition. The paper concludes that the viability of such a system is not only dependent on the dynamics of the local and international dive market, in which all actors pursue their own interests, but also on the establishment of meta-governance arrangements that can provide incentive-based oversight to the entrepreneurial conservation practices of dive operations.     

珊瑚礁环境质量变化的价值评估——以涠洲岛为例

以涠洲岛为例,使用非市场价值评估手段对涠洲岛珊瑚礁环境质量进行了非使用价值评估,分析了珊瑚礁环境质量变化所产生的价值损益。2012年在涠洲岛通过模拟3种珊瑚礁环境质量变化,对上岛游客进行调访,游客从影响珊瑚礁环境质量的珊瑚礁覆盖度、珊瑚礁种类以及海水能见度3方面进行考虑,选择最终旅游目的地,共调查300位游客,收集有效数据900份。应用随机效应理论和混合对数模型进行分析和评估,结果显示,当涠洲岛珊瑚礁环境质量提升时,将会人均获益399元/年;当涠洲岛珊瑚礁环境质量略有下降时,将会损失人均561元/年;而当珊瑚礁环境质量下降较大时,人均损失将达到918元/年。同时,本研究的成果可以推广到其它海岛以及陆地进行环境质量变化评估,并且可以评估未来气候变化条件下对珊瑚礁生态系统的价值损失。     

浙江省海洋旅游资源开发研究的若干建议

21世纪被称为海洋经济时代,人们越来越关注沿海地区的发展及其资源的合理利用程度.以浙江省为例,着重探讨了海洋旅游的不同类型与特点,海洋旅游资源的开发要点.在日本和浙江相近沿海地区资源的比较与研究基础之上,分析了沿海地区的旅游规划与发展所面临的问题以及挑战,论述了浙江沿海地区旅游资源的开发和管理的可持续发展模式,并对浙江海洋资源开发的多样化发展提出了若干具体的建议.     

东亚和南亚典型大河三角洲晚第四纪地层结构及成因对比

通过整理东亚、南亚典型河口三角洲末次冰消期以来演化历史的研究进展,对比各河口晚第四纪地层结构、沉积体系演替和三角洲开始建造的时间,分析其沉积历史的主要控制因素。结果显示,末次冰消期以来各河口具相似的地层结构和演变过程,即早全新世下切古河谷充填和河口湾发育,中—晚全新世三角洲建造,该过程主要受海平面变化的控制。但是各河口地层结构和沉积历史也存在差异,其中以三角洲开始建造的时间差别最为明显。对比发现这种差异与流域地貌、基岩以及河口沉积盆地的差别有关。流程短、流域基岩易侵蚀的河流,入海泥沙量大,其三角洲开始建造的时间显著早于其他河流,其中以恒河三角洲最为典型。另外,以珠江三角洲为典型,其半封闭、基底浅的河口沉积盆地特征,也有助于中全新世湾顶三角洲的建造。     

川东地区长兴组生物礁有利相带预测技术研究

川东地区长兴组生物礁为四川盆地海相碳酸盐岩主要含气层,生物礁有利相带预测技术的研究对生物礁储层的勘探生产有重要的指导意义.通过对川东地区长兴组生物礁有利相带预测技术的研究所得到的结果表明：目前地震属性分析技术和时差分析技术为生物礁有利相带预测中最常用和最有效的关键技术;层拉平分析技术为生物礁有利相带预测的辅助技术,能近似反映古沉积环境;地震谱分解技术能够精细地刻画相带边界,但是对资料信噪比要求较高.     

南极威德尔海区域海冰异常对初夏东亚大气环流和天气影响的数值研究

利用经过改变用于长期数值预报的CCM1(R15L7)模式以1975年1月16日00Z模式适应场为初始场积分5个月,研究南极威德尔海附近(60°W～30°E)海冰的面积异常对东亚初夏环流转换季节的影响.发现当南极海冰偏多时,在亚洲北部冷空气活动在初夏仍然很多,势力还很强,东亚南北两支急流分支仍很明显,各种环流特征更偏向于冬季型,不利于东亚初夏的环流季节转换.海冰异常偏少时则相反,亚洲北部的冷空气活动明显减弱,南方暖气流势力明显加强北移,东亚的两支急流也趋于合并北抬,环流形势更接近于夏季型,海冰的减少促进了东亚初夏的环流季节转换过程.     

南汇东滩圈围工程对长江口河势影响的数值模拟分析

基于验证的MIKE21软件长江口二维潮流数值模型,计算和重点分析了南汇东滩促淤圈围工程对长江口南槽、北槽和横沙通道的影响。结果表明:南汇东滩促淤圈围工程束窄了南槽下段河道,较大幅度地减小了该段的潮流量;但南槽中段以下河段流速增加幅度较大,河槽将会刷深,河势将得到发展;江亚北槽将会得到发展,北槽中段泥沙淤积现象将会加剧;横沙通道涨落潮流量大幅减少,横沙通道涨落潮流量与南槽涨落潮流量存在非常高的相关性,这对横沙通道作为航道开发和利用会带来较为不利的影响。     

基于PSR模型的渤海海洋生态红线区管控评价研究

为客观评价我国海洋生态红线区管控效果,本文通过建立海洋生态红线区管控评价体系,运用PSR模型对渤海区域及三省一市(山东省、辽宁省、河北省和天津市)海洋生态红线区管控效果进行评价。结果表明渤海区域海洋生态红线区的管控情况总体上持续改善,压力层稳定性较差,状态层不断优化,响应层受政策影响较大。其中渤海区域压力层主要受山东省人口、工业影响,状态层的变化主要来自辽宁省丰富自然资源的作用,响应层的改变主要来自山东省对于生态安全做出的努力。最后根据各省市海洋生态环境现状从海洋保护区管控、海洋保护区限制开发等方面提出了管理建议。     

Identification of important marine areas using ecologically or biologically significant areas (EBSAs) criteria in the East to Southeast Asia region and comparison with existing registered areas for the purpose of conservation

The biodiversity of East to Southeast (E–SE) Asian waters is rapidly declining because of anthropogenic effects ranging from local environmental pressures to global warming. To improve marine biodiversity, the Aichi Biodiversity Targets were adopted in 2010. The recommendation of the Subsidiary Body on Scientific, Technical and Technological Advice (SBSTTA), encourages application of the ecologically or biologically significant area (EBSA) process to identify areas for conservation. However, there are few examples of the use of EBSA criteria to evaluate entire oceans. In this article, seven criteria are numerically evaluated to identify important marine areas (EBSA candidates) in the E–SE Asia region. The discussion includes 1) the possibility of EBSA criteria quantification throughout the E–SE Asia oceans and the suitability of the indices selected; 2) optimal integration methods for criteria, and the relationships between the criteria and data robustness and completeness; and; 3) a comparison of the EBSA candidates identified and existing registered areas for the purpose of conservation, such as marine protected areas (MPAs). Most of the EBSA criteria could be quantitatively evaluated throughout the Asia-Pacific region. However, three criteria in particular showed a substantial lack of data. Our methodological comparison showed that complementarity analysis performed better than summation because it considered criteria that were evaluated only in limited areas. Most of the difference between present-day registered areas and our results for EBSAs resulted from a lack of data and differences in philosophy for the selection of indices.     

海上地震勘探主要采集参数的选取与验证——以南海北部某调查区为例

采集参数选取的优劣直接关系到野外地震资料质量的高低。作者经过多年海上地震调查实践,总结了一套实用的采集参数选取原则与验证流程。首先结合南海北部某调查区以往的地震和地质资料分析,建立了典型的地震地质结构模型;根据现有调查设备的性能,利用专业软件Nucleus6.2模拟对采集参数选取的理论计算,比较不同采集参数组合的模拟结果,选择有利于调查任务的参数组合。对海上生产前模拟选用的采集参数组合做试验和验证,确定了最适合的参数作业。运用该套原则和流程精心设计,实验获得了高质量野外资料。     

海湾水环境影响的约瑟夫-新德那模式预测

对应用约瑟夫-新德那模式进行海湾水环境影响预测中存在的问题作了初步分析,海域水流、混合深度值的选取及特殊污染物的存在等是影响预测结果准确性的主要因素。潮流憩流状态时,污染物的迁移扩散主要取决于污染物的混合速度,污染物基本上以近似于半圆形呈π弧度的角度向水体混合扩散,预测结果与污染物实际迁移扩散状况大致吻合;潮流非憩流或大部分时间为非憩流状态时,海域水流对污染物的迁移扩散影响较大,混合角度与海流流速成反比,污染物向水体扩散的实际混合角度要小于π弧度,预测的结果与污染物实际迁移扩散状况存在较大差距。海域水流对污染物迁移距离产生很大影响,水流愈大,污染物迁移的距离就愈远。混合深度的取值也直接关系到预测结果的准确性,若按可能受影响范围海域的平均水深值作为混合深度取值,其预测结果要比水深取2m时的预测结果更接近真实状况。对已达标排放的废水进行影响预测时,结果与实际情况接近,而对高浓度石油类的废水含量的影响预测却与实际情况差异极大。     

基于渔业统计数据的南海区渔业资源可捕量评估

科学确定海洋渔业可捕量是开展捕捞限额管理的前提和关键。南海区渔业资源种类繁多,无明显大宗经济鱼种,且产量统计不够完善,使得可捕量的量化评估较为困难。根据渔业产量统计数据,利用一种简化的产量模型对南海区渔业资源总可捕量以及11个重要经济类群的可捕量进行了评估。结果表明,南海区渔业资源最大可持续产量为308.6万t,总可捕量为246.9万~277.8万t。从11个重要经济类群的评估结果来看,这些类群在20世纪90年代后均遭受过不同程度的过度捕捞。目前状态较好,未处于过度捕捞状态的有蓝圆鲹和竹荚鱼、沙丁鱼类、马面鲀类、鲷类、鳓类和鲐类等6个恢复力较高的类群;而其他5个恢复力较低的类群,尤其是海鳗类和石斑鱼类,目前处于过度捕捞状态。     

自然死亡率变化对黄海蓝点马鲛渔业管理的影响

传统的渔业资源评估方法对数据有一定的要求,而现有的许多渔业缺乏相关数据,造成了渔业评估和管理上的障碍。特别是自然死亡率,由于观测和计算的困难,研究中一般通过经验公式等方法进行假话,而不同来源的数据和估算方法的结果存在较大差异,可能导致在渔业资源评估和管理中很大的不确定性。本研究以蓝点马鲛（Scomberomorus niphonius）为例,利用MSE比较了22种基于有限数据的渔业管理规程（MP）,筛选出DCAC、SPMSY、curE75、minlenLopt1 4种对于M不确定性较为稳健的的管理方法,并针对不同年代的自然死亡率以及通过不同计算方法得出的自然死亡率对这4种MP进行了管理策略评价。结果表明：M自1980s至今的不同年代间有显著降低趋势,该变化对MP管理效果产生了较强影响。随着M降低,种群B>0.5BMSY的概率显著上升,而过度捕捞可能性在不同MP间有方向性的差异。M变化对对curE75、minlenLopt1的长期产量的影响较小,而对DCAC、SPMSY的AAVY<15%的可能性变化较大,即降低产量的波动。不同M估算方法的估计值相差不大,对MP管理影响不明显。综合结果来看,Cur75受自然死亡率不确定性影响较小,对于渔业资源的开发和保护两个方面有着最好的权衡,最适用于我国蓝点马鲛渔业的管理。     

The effects of seal-swim activities on the New Zealand fur seal (Arctophoca australis forsteri) in the Bay of Plenty,New Zealand,and recommendations for a sustainable tourism industry

Wildlife tourism (including pinniped tourism) offers people the opportunity to see wildlife in their natural environment. It can provide positive outcomes for the animals, through improved resources for conservation, or negative outcomes, such as inducing the animals to move away. This study assessed the impacts and sustainability of a novel but growing tourism industry, swimming with seals, based on interactions with New Zealand fur seals (Arctophoca australis forsteri) in the Bay of Plenty, New Zealand, between December 2011 and March 2012. The behaviour of all seals in the water (interaction, neutral, and avoidance) was monitored at 1 min intervals, during 16 seal-swim events. Seals mostly ignored the swimmers (54% of records), some interacted with swimmers (41%); seals rarely avoided the swimmers (5%). Interactions peaked in frequency at 6 min into the swims, then declined. They occurred most frequently during December, corresponding with the pupping period when juvenile seals—the age class most likely to interact—are excluded from breeding areas and so spend much of their time in the water. Compliance of tour operators to regulations was also monitored during seal-swim activities and the industry was found to be highly compliant. The results suggest the activities monitored had minimal impact on seals in the water, and are likely to be sustainable in relation to seal conservation. Tourism can be site and time specific, and it is recommended that approaches such as those trialled here be adopted to monitor other wildlife tourism activities to ensure their sustainability. Further research needs to examine potential impacts of the tours on seals ashore.     

Analysis of bycatch in the South African midwater trawl fishery for horse mackerel Trachurus capensis based on observer data

The South African midwater trawl fishery targets adult horse mackerel Trachurus capensis. The bulk of the catch is taken by a single freezer-trawler, the biggest fishing vessel operating in South African waters. As fishing takes place off the south coast in ecologically sensitive areas, there are concerns about the potential impacts of this fishing operation on non-target species. Fishing behaviour and bycatch of this fishery from 2004 to 2014 were investigated by analysing observer records with regard to catch composition, volume and temporal and spatial patterns. The midwater trawl fishery was estimated to have caught 25 415 tonnes annually, with a bycatch of 6.9% of the total catch, by weight. There are species overlaps with various fisheries, namely the demersal trawl, small-pelagic, line, shark longline and squid fisheries, yet the total bycatch estimates from this fishery are generally small relative to catches taken in the target fisheries. Bycatch species with the highest average annual catches were chub mackerel Scomber japonicus, redeye roundherring Etrumeus whiteheadi, ribbonfish Lepidopus caudatus and hake Merluccius spp. Large-fauna bycatch species included sunfish Mola mola as well as a number of CITES II- and IUCN-listed species, such as Cape fur seal Arctocephalus pusillus, dusky shark Carcharhinus obscurus, smooth hammerhead shark Sphyrna zygaena and thresher sharks Alopias spp. The 97.9% observer coverage is high and the 6.9% bycatch rate low compared to other South African fisheries; however, due to the large size of the individual hauls (average of 46.3 t), the average sampling rate of 1.56% is low. Our analyses suggest that bycatch in the South African midwater trawl fishery has been lower than in other South African fisheries and similar fisheries elsewhere, but due to the combination of high catch volumes and low sampling rates, estimation errors for rare species are high and there is a substantial risk of incidental unmonitored bycatch of rare large fauna and aggregations of small fauna. This could be mitigated by spatio-temporal management of this fishery, to avoid fishing in high-risk areas, and the introduction of an electronic monitoring programme.     

Influence of environmental data of different sources on marine species habitat modeling: A case study for Ommastrephes bartramii in the Northwest Pacific Ocean

The quality of environmental data and its possible impact on the marine species habitat modelling are often overlooked while the sources for these data are increasing. This study selected sea surface temperature(SST) from two commonly used sources, the NOAA Ocean Watch and IRI/LDEO Climate Data Library, and then constructed habitat suitability index model to evaluate the influences of SST from the two sources on the outcomes of Ommastrephes bartramii habitat models for the months of July–October...     

基于深度卷积嵌入式聚类（DCEC）的海洋环境特征提取对渔情预报模型的改进研究以西南印度洋大眼金枪鱼为例

为提高大眼金枪鱼(Thunnus obesus)延绳钓渔情预报模型的预测能力,本研究提出了一种基于深度卷积嵌入式聚类(DCEC)的海洋环境时空特征提取方法,结合广义可加模型(GAM)对西南印度洋大眼金枪鱼延绳钓渔场进行预报。采用2018年1−12月0.041 6°×0.041 6°的MODIS-Aqua和MODIS-Terra海表面温度三级反演图像数据(以日为单位)构建DCEC模型,基于Davies-Bouldi 指数(DBI)确定最佳聚类数,在此基础上提取各月海表温度(SST)的类别特征值$ {F}_{M} $;采用美国国家海洋和大气管理局网站2018年1−12月1°×1°的Chl a浓度月平均值作为辅助环境特征因子;采用印度洋金枪鱼委员会2018年1−12月1°×1°的大眼金枪鱼延绳钓渔业数据(以月为单位),计算单位捕捞努力量渔获量(CPUE);将SST月类别特征值$ {F}_{M} $、Chl a浓度月平均值与CPUE数据进行时空匹配,构建改进GAM;采用SST月平均值、Chl a浓度月平均值与CPUE数据构建基础GAM;采用联合假设检验($ F $检验)验证模型解释变量对响应变量的影响;采用赤池信息准则(AIC)、均方误差(MSE)、绘制实测值和预测值的散点图并计算相关系数r,分析改进GAM相比于基础GAM的提升效果。实验结果表明：(1)基于DCEC模型提取的$ {F}_{M} $能够较好地反映西南印度洋海表温度的时空动态特征与规律,并与西南印度洋的气候条件、季风状况和水文特征等相互耦合;(2) $ {F}_{M} $相比SST平均值的因子解释率更高,对大眼金枪鱼CPUE影响更为显著,高渔获率集中在暖冷流交汇区域;(3)改进GAM相比基础GAM的AIC值降低了9.17%,MSE降低了26.7%,散点图显示改进GAM预测的CPUE对数值与实测CPUE对数值的相关性较显著,r为0.60。本研究证明了DCEC模型在海洋环境特征提取方面的有效性,可为后序大眼金枪鱼延绳钓渔情预报模型的改进研究提供参考。