System Analysis of Disaster Prevention Design Criteria for Coastal and Estuarine Cities

—In China,estuarine and coastal cities are mostly regional economic development centers.Thedisasters by combined effect of upper reach flood,storm surge and typhoon waves are primary obstaclesto the economic development of such cities.Thus the risk analysis and system analysis of flood-stormsurge-wave disaster,economic loss and flood-storm surge control measures play a very important role inthe sustainable development of coastal cities.There are three types of coastal cities for consideration.Thefirst type of city is like Tianjin.The most significant damage is from the upper reach flood.The effect ofstorm surge is negligible,because in the estuary of the Haihe River,tidal locks are built.The Grey MarkovModel(GMM)is used to forecast the flood peak level.GMM combines the Grey system and the Markovtheory into a high-precision model.The predicted flood peak levels are close to the measured data.A syn-thetic model is established for economic assessment,risk analysis and flood-control benefit estimation.Asa n     

风暴潮模拟中潮位对风拖曳力系数的影响研究

近年来,应用数值模型模拟台风引起的风暴潮运动越来越普遍,模型中对于风拖曳力系数的确定,一般都从相对风速出发,可引用的公式也较多,但这些公式很少考虑潮位变化对此系数的影响.在强潮河口、海岸海域,潮位变幅大,最高潮位甚至可达风速参考高度(10m)的近一半,如长江口和杭州湾.在数值模拟中不考虑风暴潮和天文潮共同引起的潮位变化,会造成风应力高潮时被低估、低潮时被高估的现象,从而影响风暴潮模拟的精度.为此本文对现有的风拖曳力系数加以改进,提出了考虑潮位影响的风拖曳力系数表达式,并应用于长江口、杭州湾9711号台风风暴潮的模拟中,增水模拟结果得到了明显改善,可进一步推广应用于强潮河口、海岸的风暴潮增水模拟中.     

Influence of intermittent estuary outflow on coastal sediments of adjacent sandy beaches

Outflows from estuaries potentially contribute to the productivity of adjacent coastal waters, although most previous work has been on estuaries with considerable river discharge. We investigated the influence of estuary outflow on aspects of coastal sediments adjacent to two seasonally intermittent estuaries, the Curdies and Anglesea Rivers, in southwest Victoria, Australia. For each estuary, we measured sediment organic matter, microphytobenthic chlorophyll a and microbial utilization of carbon sources at three locations associated with each estuary: (1) inside estuary mouth, (2) estuary swash and (3) control swash (an open beach distant from any estuarine influences). Sampling occurred one week before and at one and nine weeks after both an artificial mouth opening and a separate natural flood at both estuaries. Significant temporal changes were detected for all three variables at the estuary mouth and estuary swash but the direction of change was inconsistent across the two estuaries and between the artificial mouth opening and natural flood. Organic matter in both estuaries showed no difference after the artificial mouth openings. Only Anglesea showed an increase in organic matter in the estuary mouth and estuary swash after the floods. Microphytobenthic chlorophyll a concentrations were highest when the estuary mouths were closed. Concentrations decreased at all locations at Curdies after the mouth was artificially opened. The estuary mouth at Anglesea sustained high chlorophyll concentrations and the estuary swash increased one week post artificial opening. The flood event resulted in an increase in chlorophyll a at the estuary mouth and swash at both estuaries, one week post flood. At Curdies, the microbial utilization of different carbon sources changed after both mouth events; estuary mouth and estuary swash showed similar patterns at one and nine weeks post opening. At Anglesea, the bacteria utilized different carbon sources between locations and the only significant interaction between location and time was post flood with change in carbon sources utilized by bacteria in the estuary mouth and estuary swash for one and nine weeks post flood. The southern coastline of Australia is characterized by estuaries with small catchments. This study highlights the spatial and temporal variability in the effects of the output of relatively small, intermittent estuaries on coastal sediment of adjacent beaches, particularly during prolonged periods of drought.     

The depth-varying response of coastal circulation and water levels to 2D radiation stress when applied in a coupled wave–tide–surge modelling system during an extreme storm

During storm events wave setup in shallow regions can contribute significantly to the total water elevation, and radiation stress can also generate alongshore drift influencing sediment transport. In low lying coastal regions this generates the potential for flood inundation and morphological change. A coupled tide–surge–wave modelling system is therefore required for accurate forecasting. Liverpool Bay, UK, is taken as a case study because it has a resource of observations and incorporates three estuaries, thus providing conditions to assess the model performance both at the open coast and within estuarine environments. The model covers a region encompassing depths from about 50 m below the mean tidal level to shallow wetting and drying regions, and has previously given good wave and surge hindcasts both for individual storm events and multi-year studies.The present study builds on an already accepted model, to include and assess the spatial influence of 2D radiation stress when implemented in a 3D circulation model. The results show that the method is computationally efficient, so relevant for operational use, and also provides a plausible solution. The varied influence of radiation stress across a coastal domain is demonstrated, with larger impact at an estuary mouth and along the open coast, while having lesser impact within an estuary and further offshore.     

磨刀门河口近期演变及其排洪效应

通过分析珠江磨刀门分流河口水动力结构及拦门沙的走向变化,解析磨刀门河口近期演变,并从河口的结构和功能的角度,分析磨刀门河口的排洪功能和行为。结论认为:(1)磨刀门河口正由径流优势型向河流—波浪型转变,波浪成为改造和修饰口门地形的重要动力;(2)磨刀门河口的动力、地貌变化,使得河口对淡水的防御性增强而渗透性减弱,其排洪潜力有限;(3)强径流河口发育支汊是河口延伸中的基本规律,在今后磨刀门的治理开发过程(尤其是排洪)中应注意支汊的保护利用。     

Response of sediment dynamics in the York River Estuary,USA to tropical cyclone Isabel of 2003

Tropical Cyclone Isabel of 2003 generated large storm surge, strong waves, and subsequent river flooding in the York River Estuary, USA during its passage across the Chesapeake Bay region. A 3D model was used to investigate the changes of sediment concentration, sediment flux, and the recovery time of the York River Estuary to its naturally evolved condition without the storm. The results showed that two sediment concentration peaks appeared during the storm event. The first one was induced by the large upstream flow and waves during the storm surge rising period, and the later one was caused by the strong downstream flow during the descent of the storm surge. The advection, which was induced by the barotropic gradient, dominated the sediment flux during the storm event. The sediment fluxes increased by a factor of 100 during the rise and descent of the storm surge. A large amount of sediment that was transported into the estuary and eroded from the seabed during the rising of the storm surge was quickly transported out of the estuary during the descent of the storm surge. Waves played a key role in stirring the seabed and increasing the sediment concentration during the storm. Subsequent high freshwater inflow changed the sediment loading and hydrodynamics in the estuary, and thus, influenced the estuarine turbidity maximum (ETM) dynamics profoundly. The ETM moved downstream with the river flooding initially and returned upstream with the waning of river flooding and the re-establishment of gravitational circulation. The effect of river flooding on sediment concentration varied spatially and depended on the changes of ETM locations and vertical mixing. The model results suggest that a large amount of sediment was transported out of the estuary during the storm event and the subsequent river flooding had a larger impact on recovery time of the estuary.     

The hydrodynamic response of the York River estuary to Tropical Cyclone Isabel, 2003

Hurricane Isabel made landfall along the North Carolina coast on September 18, 2003 (UTC 17:00) and the storm surge exceeded 2.0 m in many areas of the Chesapeake Bay and in the York River estuary. River flooding occurred subsequently, and the peak river discharge reached 317 and 104 m³ s⁻¹ in the Pamunkey and Mattaponi rivers, respectively. The York River estuary experienced both storm surge and river flooding during the event and the estuary dynamics changed dramatically. This study investigates the hydrodynamics of the York River estuary in response to the storm surge and high river inflows. A three-dimensional model was used to investigate the changes of estuarine stratification, longitudinal circulation, salt flux mechanisms, and the recovery time required for the estuary to return to its naturally evolved condition without the storm. Results show that the salt flux was mainly caused by advection, which was induced by the barotropic gradient during the storm event. The net salt flux increased by a factor of 30 during the rise of the storm surge. However, the large amount of salt transported into the estuary was quickly transported out of the estuary as the barotropic gradient reversed during the descent of the storm surge. Subsequent high freshwater inflow influenced the estuarine circulation substantially. The estuary changed from a partially mixed estuary to a very stratified estuary for a prolonged period. The model results show that it will take about 4 months for the estuary to recover to its naturally evolved salinity distribution after the impacts of the storm surge and freshwater pulse.     

Numerical studies on typhoon surges in the Northern Taiwan

A numerical model for the simulation of typhoon surge has been developed for the coastal areas of the northern Taiwan. Results from the model outputs are then used as a typhoon surge data bank for 7 main estuary areas in this region. The data bank consists of the historical typhoon events from 1980 to 2004. Both characteristic and frequency analyses of the typhoon surge in the coastal region have been studied. Using these data, a relation between the surge height and pressure distribution is obtained. It is shown that, either the numerical model, or the statistical equations presented in this paper, can be used to predict possible surge heights in the estuary areas with sufficient accuracy.     

The migration patterns of the European flounder Platichthys flesus (Linnaeus, 1758) (Pleuronectidae,Pisces) at the southern limit of its distribution range: Ecological implications and fishery management

This study aims to determine the diversity of migration patterns of the European flounder (Platichthys flesus (Linnaeus, 1758)) present in the Minho estuary and in the adjacent coastal area (NW-Iberian Peninsula). Assessing the diversity of flounder migration patterns at the southern limit of its distribution allows the determination of characteristics of the species' ecology and provides useful information for fishery managers, since it is a regionally important estuarine fishery. An unexpected result of our study was that flounder appears to spawn in both estuarine and coastal areas and not just in coastal areas as was previously widely accepted. Our interpretation of otolith strontium distribution patterns from flounder specimens collected in the freshwater tidal area of the Minho estuary and in the lower estuary suggested that the flounders hatched in the estuary, while only 6.7% of those captured in the coastal area hatched in the coastal area. Ultimately, studies aimed at collecting larval stages and adult flounders must be made to confirm that flounders spawn in the estuary and to define new and better scientifically supported fishing policies, or simply to confirm the existing ones regarding temporal and spatial closures for each gear used in the Minho estuary.     

Changes in phytoplankton diversity and community composition along the salinity gradient of the Schelde estuary (Belgium/The Netherlands)

Phytoplankton diversity and community composition were studied along the Schelde river–estuary–coastal zone continuum during the summer of 2003. DCA analysis indicated a gradual compositional turnover of the phytoplankton community within the estuary. GAM modelling of species response curves along the estuarine gradient was used to identify taxa that had their population maximum in the river, the coastal zone or within the estuary. Taxa that had their population maximum within the estuary did not form a homogenous community but comprised species with different salinity optima and rather restricted salinity tolerances. The observed changes in community composition along the estuarine transition zone correspond more closely to an ecocline than to an ecotone model. Despite the fact that few taxa had their population maximum at or near the salinity gradient, alpha diversity did not display a minimum around the salinity gradient. This lack of a diversity minimum within the estuary was ascribed to an important contribution of taxa of riverine or coastal origin to alpha diversity within the estuary contributed. On average 55% of the alpha diversity in the estuarine samples was due to riverine or coastal taxa. Beta diversity displayed a clear maximum around the salinity gradient. For planktonic organisms which are subject to mass effects, beta diversity is probably a better indicator for the impact of the salinity gradient on diversity in estuaries than alpha diversity.     

科氏力对河口分汊的影响

以长江口、黄河口、珠江口、闽江口等几个分汊河口为例,分析了科氏力在河口分汊中的作用。结果表明,涨落潮流路分歧主要通过形成涨落潮冲刷槽和中央缓流区浅滩而逐渐使河口产生分汊;水面横比降则以横向环流和横向切滩两种形式,或堆积或冲刷,导致河口分汊。     

雷州市沿海风暴潮淹没危险性评估*

文章基于近岸海洋数值模式ADCIRC (a parallel advanced circulation model for oceanic, coastal and estuarine waters)和近海波浪数值模式SWAN (simulating waves nearshore), 建立雷州市高分辨率的风暴潮-海浪耦合漫滩数值模型, 并反演了对雷州市影响较为严重的1415号台风“海鸥”的风暴潮过程。经过对比分析得出, 波浪对雷州市沿海海域的风暴潮产生重要影响。然后以8007号台风路径为基础, 构造了7个不同等级共35组台风风暴潮案例, 计算分析出不同等级台风强度下雷州市风暴潮淹没范围及水深。900hPa等级下, 雷州市淹没面积达到463.2km²。文章还构造了60组可能最大风暴潮事件集, 计算得到雷州市可能最大台风风暴潮淹没范围及水深分布。在可能最大台风影响下, 大量海水将漫过海堤, 造成极其严重的淹没灾害, 雷州市总的淹没面积可达602.0km², 其中465.8km²的淹没面积达到了危险性等级 Ⅰ 级, 淹没水深大于3m。雷州市东岸的淹没灾害大于西岸。     

基于目标框架法的辽河口湿地生态脆弱性评估

河口滨海湿地生态服务功能突出,生境脆弱易损,研究其生态脆弱性对滨海湿地生态环境保护与管理具有重要意义。本文以辽河口滨海湿地为例,基于“干扰-敏感-恢复”评估框架,选取17个指标,构建滨海湿地生态脆弱性评价指标体系,以GIS技术为支撑,综合运用插值法、综合指数法,探究辽河口滨海湿地生态脆弱性空间分布特征,分析生态脆弱性变化的影响因素。结果表明:入海河口污染、河口地区人类开发活动和自然淤涨对河口滨海湿地生态脆弱性的影响较为突出;2014年辽河口滨海湿地生态脆弱性总体态势良好,区域生态脆弱性指数为1.67,整体处于不脆弱状态;空间上,辽河口滨海湿地生态脆弱性表现为中部高于四周,由入海河口向外逐步减弱的格局特征。     

Numerical modelling and analysis of temperature controlled density currents in Tomales Bay, California

The coastal region adjacent to Tomales Bay, California is dominated by wind-driven upwelling during spring and summer and the cold, upwelled water is moved towards Tomales Bay, entering the estuary with the flood tide. If the tidal excursion is ≥6 km and the cold water subducts beneath the warmer, less dense estuarine water, a temperature controlled density current may form and intrude towards the head of the estuary as a thermally stratified bottom layer. The numerical modelling was aimed at determining the capability of the Delft3D-FLOW model to reproduce the cold ocean water intrusion events, the response (development and progression) of these intrusions to differing physical scenarios and the comparative importance of the parameters to the intrusions. The numerical model successfully reproduced the density intrusions and showed that the persistence and break down of the density intrusions were affected by a number of physical parameters, to varying degrees. The sensitivity analysis showed that density intrusion formation is controlled by tidal conditions and ocean water temperature. The strength and persistence of the developed density intrusions are influenced by wind, insolation and estuary depth. Fresh water inflow at the head of the estuary had no impact on the density intrusions. Three-dimensional numerical modelling is thus a valuable tool in understanding the estuary and its functioning.     

Sources and distributions of terrigenous organic matter in a mangrove fringed small tropical estuary in South China

The sources and distributions of terrigenous organic matter (OM) were investigated in a small tropical estuary in the Hainan Island, South China. Plants, suspended particulate matter (SPM), and surface sediments samples in the estuary and coast were collected. Bulk properties [organic carbon (OC%), total nitrogen (TN%), stable carbon isotope (δ13C) and grain size] and lignin phenol concentrations were measured. OC% of mangrove plants was (43.4 ± 2.1)%, which is similar to the values reported for mangrove plants in other regions. OC% of sediment samples ranged from 0.07% to 1.42%, and they were related to the sediment texture. Lignin phenols in the sediment ranged from 5.16 mg/100 mg OC in the uppermost station to 0.51mg/100mg OC in the coast. The molar ratio of organic carbon to total nitrogen (C/N) (～7) and δ 13 C (～-31.1×10-3 ) of riverine SPM revealed that the major OM sources of riverine SPM were aquatic OM (phytoplankton and/or bacteria). Moreover, the lower lignin concentration (Λ8) and higher (Ad/Al)v of lignin phenols suggest that terrestrial OM in riverine SPM were mainly from soil. Furthermore, C/N ratio, δ13C and lignin phenols reveal that mangrove plants were the predominant OM sources of mangrove surface sediment. Based on the δ13C and lignin phenols, it can be concluded that the major OM sources in estuarine and coastal surface sediments were marine phytoplankton, riverine SPM and mangrove surface sediment. In addition, the higher (Ad/Al)v of lignin phenols in those coastal sediments indicate that seagrass might be a potential OM source in coastal sediments, however, the lower (Ad/Al)v in the estuarine sediments in turn suggests that seagrass could not be transported to the mangrove fringed region. A three-end-member model which is based on lignin concentrations and δ13C was applied to evaluate the contribution of mangroves to the organic matter preserved in the surface sediments. Around the mangrove fringed region, mangrove could contribute more than 50% to the sedimentary OM, and this value is much higher than riverine OM. Nevertheless, mangrove OM could not be efficiently transported to the coastal region. Our study suggests that mangrove forest is an important OM source in this small estuary.     

沿海地区风暴潮灾害的脆弱性组合评价及原因探析

以典型海洋灾害风暴潮为研究对象,以国家海洋局统计公报数据、国家统计局和各省市统计数据为数据源,将粗糙集理论(RST)与组合赋权策略(CWM)结合建立了基于RST-CWM的风暴潮灾害脆弱性组合评价模型。利用粗糙集的知识简约属性、投影寻踪组合赋权思想进行沿海各省市地区海洋风暴潮灾害脆弱性的综合评价。测算结果表明:沿海地区基于RST-CWM模型的风暴潮灾害脆弱性呈现出一定的空间差异性,但研究区各省市海洋风暴潮灾害脆弱性与地理位置分布没有必然的联系,说明在沿海地区开展海洋防灾减灾工作,若只注重地理区划并不一定能改善当地风暴潮脆弱程度。研究区各省市海洋灾害脆弱程度大小排序为:山东、天津、福建、广东、广西、辽宁、江苏、浙江、海南、河北、上海,同时,各省市的脆弱性要素即暴露性、敏感性及适应性构成有所差异,说明完备海洋风暴潮防灾减灾机制的驱动力是多样的,风暴潮防治应综合考虑灾害本身和人为因素。     

利用旋转平台模拟双河口羽流相互作用的研究

本文通过旋转平台实验室实验的方法,探讨了双河口情况下两个羽流将如何发生相互作用。在研究中,提出了一种新颖的技术对河口羽流的各切面流场进行测量,来获得河口羽流多个平面的速度场及涡度场,并基于此模拟了双河口羽流系统的准三维结构。通过对不同入流速度下的双河口羽流流场演变过程和内部结构进行了一系列对比研究,以期揭示上游河流的入流如何影响下游河口涡旋的形成及在羽流相互作用情形下各个羽流的演变。实验结果表明:随着上游入流流量的增加,上游羽流形成的沿岸流对下游河口涡旋沿岸迁移的促进和离岸输运的抑制作用将更加显著。特别是在上游入流流量等于或大于下游入流流量的情况下,下游羽流河口涡旋的体积增长明显较单一河口情况放缓。在上游入流流量较大的情况下,下游原有河口涡旋被推向更下游位置,在远离河口的位置形成另一个河口涡旋。在垂直方向上,我们可以观察到高上游入流流量条件下的下游河口涡旋的深度较小,更有利于形成三层流体的情况。本研究对多河口近海流域的营养盐及污染物的输运情况等社会和生态问题的研究有着重要的意义。     

温州近岸围堤对风暴潮漫滩影响的数值研究

利用-套基于非结构网格且能计算海水漫堤溢流的超高分辨率风暴潮漫滩数值模式模拟由9417号台风特大风暴潮引起的漫滩,结果与实测吻合良好。此外,选取超强台风强度并以9417台风路径为南路径,往北每间隔30 km为中路径和北路径设计了3条台风路径,进行了-系列数值模拟得出:近岸围堤加大了风暴潮、漫滩淹没对温州的威胁,而且由南路径引起的漫滩深度和中路径引起的漫滩面积影响最大。究其原因,近岸围堤对外海风暴潮在温州近海及瓯江口传播的阻隔和分流作用,两者综合变相加大了风暴潮往瓯江口北侧海域、瓯江北口、瓯江中上游的输送量。     

Tidal effect on nutrient exchange in Xiangshan Bay, China

Xiangshan Bay is an estuary in China which borders on the East China Sea. The circulation in the estuary is driven by tidal movement, residual current, the internal density distribution, and synoptic wind forcing; however, the last three are not the main dynamic factors affecting nutrient transport. Because the estuary tends to be eutrophic, a synoptic study was carried out to assess the influence of tidal movement on the nutrient distribution patterns within the estuary and to estimate the fluxes of nutrient transport between the estuary and the sea. Nitrate and ammonium are found to be exported from the estuarine water to the coastal water under usual tidal conditions, except for storm tides which result in large amounts being imported because of the extremely high concentrations in the coastal bottom water. Exports of phosphate and silicate are shown to be consistent during spring tides and neap tides in all seasons. However, the usual tidal regimes resulted in only minor nutrient exchange except during abnormal events.