REGIONAL TRENDS IN ELECTORAL SUPPORT IN BRITAIN, 1950–1983∗

Analyses of the geography of British elections have typically stressed the continuity in patterns of party support. This paper challenges that conclusion. Employing an alternative method of analysis, it identifies significant regional trends in the Conservative and Labour vote between 1950 and 1983. Pro-Labour trends in Scotland and Northwest England are contrasted with secular changes favoring the Conservatives in non-metropolitan Southern England. These long-term trends have not been associated with growing regional polarization in party support. While the findings are specific to Britain, the method of assessing electoral change might be usefully applied to patterns in other countries.     

ONE NATION OR TWO? THE CHANGING GEOGRAPHY OF UNEMPLOYMENT IN GREAT BRITAIN, 1983–1988*

Unemployment affected large numbers of people in Great Britain during the 1980s. An economic upturn since the mid-1980s has resulted in declining numbers of unemployed. Disaggregated data show that the geography of unemployment decline has not led to regional convergence in numbers out of work: unemployment has fallen most in those regions which were least affected by it.     

REGIONAL AND TEMPORAL TRENDS IN POWER PLANT UNIT SITING, 1912–1978*

Regional trends in the siting of U.S. coal, gas, oil, and nuclear power plant units from 1912 to 1978 are examined. Results of a multivariate statistical analysis indicate that while these trends are comparatively individualistic, they tend to be governed more by factors affecting the choice of fuel than by regional differences in the siting process.     

METEOROLOGICAL TSUNAMIS IN SOUTHERN BRITAIN: AN HISTORICAL REVIEW*

ABSTRACT. Meteorological tsunamis, or meteo‐tsunamis, are long‐period waves that possess tsunami characteristics but are meteorological in origin, although they are not storm surges. In this article we investigate the coast of southern Britain‐the English Channel, the Bristol Channel, and the Severn Estuary‐for the occurrence of tsunami‐like waves that, in the absence of associated seismic activity, we recognize as meteo‐tsunamis. The passage of squall lines over the sea apparently generated three of these events, and two seem to have been far‐traveled, long‐period waves from mid‐North Atlantic atmospheric low‐pressure systems. The remaining three wave events appear to have been associated with storms that, among possible explanations, may have induced large‐amplitude standing waves‐such as seiches‐or created long‐period waves through the opposition of onshore gale‐force winds and swells with high ebb tidal current velocities. This coastal hazard has resulted in damage and loss of life and should be considered in future coastal defense strategies and in beachuser risk assessments.     

THE AMERICAN CHALLENGE TO BRITISH HEGEMONY, 1861–1947*

ABSTRACT. In The Shaping of America Donald Meinig describes a United States averse to challenging Britain geostrategically but emerging as a powerhouse economy by the late 1890s. But America embarked on a sustained economic struggle with Britain in 1861 by embracing protectionism; America's Civil War ironclads were as much to resist Britain as fight the Confederacy; and in 1866 uss Miantonomoh helped persuade Britain to reconsider, then pay, the Alabama Claims. Britain never retaliated in the economic struggle by moving to protectionism and in the late 1800s began to appease America in geostrategic terms. This struggle intensified in the 1920s and 1930s as America and Britain competed for control of international transportation, international communication, and the global oil supply, but by the mid‐1940s American hegemony was clear. This article traces the course of the complex economic and political struggle for hegemony in the light of recent models of transitions in the world economy.     

SUBURBANIZATION IN THE CLEVELAND SMSA, 1950–1970

Suburban growth is a complex process attributable partly to decentralization and partly to deconcentration. Data on source of migrants and population density are used to operationalize these concepts in an empirical study of the Cleveland, Ohio SMSA for the period 1950 to 1970. Statistical analysis of census tract data for the suburban ring reveals a piling up of densities at the inner edge and suggests a complex pattern with respect to sources of the migrants contributing to suburban growth.     

PATTERNS OF HORSE DEVOLUTION AND TRACTOR DIFFUSION IN ILLINOIS, 1920–1982*

The concern is to extend certain diffusion concepts to devolution. In this example, tractors replaced horses because tractors had advantages over horses. Logistic curves depict well the temporal rate of tractor acceptance and of horse abandonment. Although differing somewhat in time, the spatial patterns of adoption and abandonment are similar. They centered early in east central Illinois, a prosperous agricultural core, and spread outward. Laggard counties as well as persister ones were mainly in southern Illinois, a peripheral area with a relatively impoverished agriculture. Influences on the patterns include farm value, size, and type and land quality.     

A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF STATE GASOLINE DEMAND, 1975–1980 *

ARIMA time series model building techniques are used to construct fifty-one state gasoline demand models based on monthly data for the period of January, 1975 to July, 1960. Statistically satisfactory models are obtained for all states. Price elasticity estimates are >0 for all states. All but four are statistically significant at the 0.05 level. The significant price elasticity estimates range from ?0.138 to ?0.377, with most clustering about ?0.2. Estimates of state gasoline supply shortages for May, June, and July, 1979 are also presented which range from 0 to 8 percent of normal consumption for the three-month-period.     

The Suburbanization of the Institutional Investment Advisory Industry: Metropolitan Philadelphia, 1983–1993

Traditionally, the institutional investment advisory industry in Pennsylvania has been concentrated in Philadelphia's Central Business District (CBD). However, analysis of the industry's organizational structure and spatial dynamics over the 1983–1993 study period indicates suburbanization and growth of the industry outside of the CBD. Maps and tables describe the institutional investment advisory industry's spatial organization at the intra-metropolitan scale using the Money Market Directory of Pension Funds and their Investment Advisors (Money Market Directories 1983, 1993). This industry-specific research contributes to the ongoing attempt to theorize financial services location and growth, and provides a basis for examining the impact of information technology (IT) on the spatial concentration of financial services activity at the intra-metropolitan scale.     

Temporal and spatial trends of precipitation and river flow in the Yangtze River Basin, 1961–2000

The suspected impact of climate warming on precipitation distribution is examined in the Yangtze River Basin. Daily precipitation data for 147 meteorological stations from 1961–2000 and monthly discharge data for three stations in the basin have been analyzed for temporal and spatial trends. The methods used include the Mann–Kendall test and simple regression analysis. The results show (1) a significant positive trend in summer precipitation at many stations especially for June and July, with the summer precipitation maxima in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin in the 1990s; (2) a positive trend in rainstorm frequency that is the main contributor to increased summer precipitation in the basin; and (3) a significant positive trend in flood discharges in the middle and lower basin related to the spatial patterns and temporal trends of both precipitation and individual rainstorms in the last 40 years. The rainstorms have aggravated floods in the middle and lower Yangtze River Basin in recent decades. The observed trends in precipitation and rainstorms are possibly caused by variations of atmospheric circulation (weakened summer monsoon) under climate warming.     

NOTES ON THE RISE OF THE AREA STUDIES TRADITION IN U.S. GEOGRAPHY, 1910–1929*

Area studies emerged as the leading tradition in American geography during the second decade of this century, supplanting the earth science tradition. The man-land tradition, reaching its peak during the second and third decades, never became as dominant as did the area studies tradition, based on a classification of the number of articles published, papers presented at annual AAG meetings, doctoral dissertations, and philosophical and methodological pronouncements by noted figures in American geography.     

Reviewing the Guayana project: Lifetime migration to and from Bolivar state,Venezuela, 1950–2001

By the mid‐twentieth century the population and economic resources in many developing economies had become concentrated in the capital city. Planned industrial cities became an important mechanism to encourage more balanced urban systems as well as development in peripheralized regions. Venezuela boasts one of the most impressive planned industrial cities, Ciudad Guayana, constructed in 1959 in the resource rich but inaccessible Bolivar state in the southeast. This paper summarizes the lifetime migration to and from Bolivar state for the years 1950, 1971 and 2001. Whereas the majority of lifetime migrants originated from the neighbouring northeast region in 1950 and 1971, by 2001 more migrants arrived from the capital region. For lifetime outmigrants, the destination states became more diverse and less focused on the capital region. Gender ratios of lifetime migrants to and from Bolivar became more equitable as women became more prominent in migration flows. The level of urban primacy in Venezuela declined substantially after 1971 as the country became more internally integrated, although this more equitable distribution of the country's population may not have been solely a result of the creation of the growth pole, but a result of wider economic development.     

GERMAN GREAT–POWER RELATIONS IN THE PAGES OF SIMPLICISSIMUS, 1896–1914*

ABSTRACT. Wilhelmine Germany had a powerful economy and, after 1898, began construction of a fleet to challenge Great Britain's global power. This article analyses Germany's cultural “will to power” in the period through the eyes of the avant‐garde, Munich‐published weekly magazine Simplicissimus as it examined the series of security crises between 1896 and the outbreak of war in 1914. The magazine was no fan of Wilhelmine militarism, its principal artist having been jailed for criticism of the kaiser, but it showed a deep support for Germany's rise to power on moral grounds. Many illustrations dealt with global power projection through the navy and the need for a suitable security partner within Europe. Its illustrators depicted Great Britain as an immoral world power only Germany might check and France as its preferred security partner to keep Europe at peace.     

ETHNIC RESIDENTIAL SEGREGATION IN BELFAST,NORTHERN IRELAND, 1971–1991*

ABSTRACT. The segregation of Catholics and Protestants varies spatially and temporally in Belfast, Northern Ireland. Using small-area statistics from the censuses of 1971, 1981, and 1991, taken during the recent “Troubles,” a strongly rising level of ethnic segregation is noted for the 1970s, followed by a more gentle rise in the 1980s. Segregation is shown to vary among subunits of the urban area. The basic cause of this segregation is ethnic violence, and the spatial variation in segregation can be attributed to spatial variation in this violence.     

MYTHOLOGIES OF THE GRID IN THE EMPIRE CITY, 1811–2011*

In this article, I examine the performative dimensions of historical narration as a form of modern mythmaking by reconsidering conventional narratives on the “origins” of Manhattan's grid street plan of 1811. The historical mythology of the grid espoused in canonical readings of the Plan of 1811 relies extensively on a rearticulation of the official explanation that the grid's designers provided in a foundational text known as the “Commissioners’ Remarks”. I argue that such accounts result in an extraordinarily narrow and formulaic interpretation of the utilitarian motives and intentions behind the city's grid plan, one that reinforces a form of “morphological essentialism”. To support this argument, I shift the focus of attention beyond the “Commissioners’ Remarks” in order to complicate readings of the intentionality that gave rise to the 1811 street plan. I conclude by suggesting that the mythic search for the “origins” of the grid in the realm of founding intentions can most effectively be challenged by drawing attention to the proliferation of countermyths of gridded space.     

THE USE OF QUANTITATIVE METHODS IN MAJOR GEOGRAPHICAL JOURNALS, 1956–1986*

Ninety mainstream quantitative methods used in 14 major geographical journals are analyzed for four selected years: 1956, 1966, 1976, and 1986. Mainstream methods are used in 53% of all articles in 1986, as opposed to 3% in 1956. Both the intensity and variety of methods used also increased, particularly in physical and techniques articles compared to human articles. Major methods that dominate the entire period include bivariate correlation and regression, multiple regression, factor analyses, and chi-square. The use of nonparametric methods is increasing, although their frequency of occurrence is still low. Spatial autocorrelation and advanced multiple regression appear to be strong newcomers to the discipline.     

CHANGES IN SOVIET NATURAL GAS FLOWS: 1970–1985*

Natural gas flows in the USSR are modeled using the out-of-kilter algorithm after the transmission system is abstracted into a network of demand and supply nodes and bounded arcs. Evaluation of the resulting flow pattern is done for 1970, 1975, 1980, and 1985. Shifts in gas supplies from the European area to Central Asia and now to West Siberia have necessitated changes in the Soviet natural gas pipeline system. The system is entering a period of long run stability between the geographic distribution of supply and demand in contrast to a continually changing distribution pattern before 1980.     

Female Farmers in Canada, 1971–1986*

The discussion of agricultural restructuring has often failed to include farm women, particularly those who own and operate their own enterprises. Accordingly, this research presents an overview of Canadian female farm operators, who are a growing component of the farm operator population. Using previously untabulated data from the 1971, 1981, and 1986 censuses of agriculture and population, the study draws comparisons to male farmers in Canada and female farmers in the United States. The census data show that the socioeconomic and farming profile of Canadian female farmers differs from that of their male colleagues, and that the differences in certain key characteristics (such as farm size, sales, and commodity type) are becoming more noticeable over time. This raises questions about whether female operators are in danger of becoming marginalized from mainstream production, and whether their needs as a minority group among agricultural producers are being recognized.     

THE CHANGING LOCATION OF TRADE AND SERVICES IN GUADALAJARA,MEXICO, 1994–2004*

The location of trade and services in Guadalajara, Mexico, is in flux as suburban commercial centers compete with the traditional downtown for new businesses and employment. Since the mid‐1990s a factor driving the change has been the introduction of American‐style big‐box retailers, corporate franchise supermarkets, and large suburban shopping malls. In this article I analyze the changing patterns of commercial and service businesses and employment from 1994 to 2004 in order to compare suburban and urban growth. My analysis includes comparative measures of change in neighborhoods immediately surrounding Walmart stores and by disaggregated types of commercial districts. Results indicate that a complementary relationship has developed: Suburbs are increasingly strong in the services, but the downtown remains a commercial hub. Moreover, some traditional small vendors in close proximity to Walmart may suffer, but growth in employment and in the service sector near Walmarts is high.