大气波导特征分析及其对电磁波传播的影响

文中在介绍大气折射的基本类型及其存在条件的基础上 ,阐述了三种类型的大气波导的形成机制 ,总结并分析了大气波导的几个主要特征 ,并用西北太平洋云辐射实验的实测资料和西沙海域的气象资料进行了验证 ,同时试验了蒸发波导高度对大气湿度、气海温差、水平风速变化的敏感性 .在分析大气波导对电磁波传播的影响时 ,推导了可形成波导传播的电磁波最大陷获波长和临界发射仰角 ,提出了电磁波形成波导传播的 4个必要条件 ,并讨论了大气波导对超短波传播、雷达探测、短波通信等方面的影响 .     

大气波导形成条件及传播路径模拟

推导了可形成波导传播的电磁波最大陷获波长和临界发射仰角,介绍了电磁波可形成波导传播的必要条件,在此基础上建立了在大气波导层中电磁波传播路径模式,并利用南京雷达实际观测的超折射回波对此模式进行了验证,所得结果比较一致。     

气象条件对大气波导的影响

在介绍大气折射基本类型及其对电磁波影响的基础上,概述了三种类型大气波导的形成机制,分析了不同天气系统、气象要素和天气现象对大气波导的影响,总结了易于出现大气波导现象的天气条件。研究气象条件对大气波导的影响,对于研究和预测电磁波在大气中的传播特性以及在军事上的应用都具有十分重要的意义。     

两次大气波导CINRAD/SA雷达超折射回波分析

利用石家庄CINRAD/SA型多普勒天气雷达资料,结合探空实况对2006年9月5日和2005年11月21日的CINRAD/SA雷达超折射回波、气象条件、及大气波导进行了对比,并对不同类型的大气波导的电磁波传播情况进行了分析。结果表明:电磁波在华北平原有利的气象条件下能够形成大气波导传播,大气波导层使得CINRAD/SA雷达杂波增加,产生超折射回波。大气波导影响超折射回波的强度和分布,2006年9月5日由于雷达站上空存在表面波导,形成了2层模式超折射回波;2005年11月21日雷达站上空存在抬升波导,形成了3层模式超折射回波。超折射回波目标的视在位置与实际位置存在偏差,特别是高度偏差较大。受太行山地形影响,超折射回波主要分布在东部平原地区。     

西太平洋中南部冬季悬空波导统计分析及成因初探

利用2015年11月—2016年1月船载GPS探空数据和欧洲中心ERA-Interim再分析资料,对西太平洋中南部海域悬空波导现象进行了统计分析。探空资料分析表明：该区域出现悬空波导的发生概率为47%,平均高度为1 393 m,平均厚度为205 m,平均强度为11.7 M-unit,平均截止波长为2.7 m。悬空波导发生时,天气晴朗,云量较少,以积云为主。进一步分析发现5～30°N范围内悬空波导发生概率高达77%,在800 hPa左右高度存在强悬空波导现象。ERA-Interim再分析资料表明强悬空波导出现在巨大反气旋运动区,副热带高压内部缓慢下沉引起的干燥大气与海洋边界层内湿润的、上升运动大气相遇,在800 hPa附近形成较强的相对湿度梯度和逆温,导致强悬空波导的发生。     

基于海气通量算法的海上蒸发波导诊断模型

蒸发波导是海上普遍存在的海洋天气现象, 也是导致海上电磁波异常传播的重要因素, 严重影响了海上雷达、通信及电子设备的有效应用。而TOGA COARE (海洋-大气耦合响应试验) 通量算法为蒸发波导的精确诊断提供了条件, 因此, 该文建立了基于海气通量算法的海上蒸发波导诊断模型, 并利用福建海域铁塔观测资料以及海上雷达探测试验数据与美国业务运转的Paulus-Jeske诊断模型对比, 结果表明:通量蒸发波导诊断模型的各项对比结果均优于Paulus-Jeske模型。     

北半球冬季准定常行星波的三维传播及其年际变化

作者回顾了应用叶笃正先生所创立的Rossby波频散理论,来研究准定常行星波在三维大气的能量频散以及在北半球冬季三维大气中的传播规律,并应用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和由大气环流数值模拟所得的模式资料的40年风场、温度场资料计算了冬季北半球准定常行星波的E-P通量.计算结果表明了北半球冬季准定常行星波在三维大气传播具有沿两支波导的传播特征,这与从理论分析所得的结果相吻合.作者还分析了冬季准定常行星波的E-P通量分布的年际变化,分析结果表明了准定常行星波在北半球冬季三维大气中传播的这两支波导有明显的年际振荡;并且,从冬季准定常行星波的E-P通量辐散辐合的年际变化与北极涛动的年际变化相比较,发现准定常行星波两支波导的年际振荡直接影响着北极涛动(AO),因而说明了准定常行星波活动的年际变化可以影响对流层的气候变化.     

1998年季风试验期间南海蒸发波导特征分析

利用1998年南海季风试验期间“科学1号”和“实验3号”科考船每天四次的高分辨率探空数据,分析了南海季风爆发前后蒸发波导特征。结果表明:南海季风爆发后蒸发波导发生概率大于爆发前,且南海南部发生概率大于北部;南海蒸发波导具有明显的日变化特征,总体上呈现“低-高-低”的趋势,波导强度日变化比波导高度日变化剧烈;季风爆发前的波导强度和高度比爆发后的方差小,较稳定;季风期间南海南部的波导强度总体上比北部强,波导高度比北部低。这可能是西南季风的爆发改变了近海面大气边界层结构引起的。      

北半球夏季急流遥相关：进展与展望

急流遥相关是沿急流波导传播的准静止行星尺度波列,在大气环流的维持和演变中有重要作用,其异常活动常伴随极端天气气候事件的发生。研究急流遥相关在不同时间尺度的变异特征和机理不仅可以加深对大气环流变化规律的理解,还可以为相应时间尺度上的天气预报、气候预测乃至气候预估提供科学依据。根据波导的性质,北半球夏季的急流波导可以分为以正压效应为主要维持机制的副热带急流波导和以斜压效应为维持机制的极锋急流波导。本文聚焦夏季急流遥相关活动最为活跃的欧亚大陆地区,在回顾急流遥相关理论的基础上,简要总结了近年来关于夏季副热带急流遥相关和极锋急流遥相关的形成条件、动力机制、气候影响和未来变化的研究进展,并展望了一些未来值得继续深入研究的问题。     

0920号超强台风“卢碧”引起的强海上大气波导成因分析与数值模拟研究

基于中国台湾地区主持的侵台台风之飞机侦察及下投式探空仪观测实验（Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region,DOTSTAR）获得的高分辨率下投式探空仪探测资料,分析了2003年9月—2012年8月所有发生在中国台湾地区附近海域的台风型大气波导事件,遴选出一次由0920号超强台风“卢碧”引起的强台风型海上大气波导过程作为研究对象。利用欧洲中期数值预报中心（ECMWF）再分析资料（水平分辨率0.125°×0.125°）,对此次波导的生成原因进行了分析;基于WRF模式比较了不同初始化方法对台风强度、尺度和周围台风型大气波导的模拟能力。结果表明,此次强台风型大气波导发生在台风环流西北侧外围的弱下沉运动区,其形成与850 hPa高度附近北方强干空气平流导致湿度随高度锐减密切相关。在数值模拟中运用台风动力初始化方法,可以有效改进台风强度、路径和尺度的模拟效果,进而有利于改善台风型大气波导尤其是波导层所在高度的模拟效果。台风外围出现的大气波导通常以悬空波导为主,模拟效果与台风螺旋雨带和内核尺度的模拟关系密切,而与台风强度和眼墙结构关系不大。中尺度数值模式WRF具有模拟台风型大气波导的能力,是研究台风型大气波导的有力手段。      

不同排放情景下模拟的21世纪东亚积雪面积变化趋势

利用WCRP CMIP3气候模式对SRES A2、A1B和B1排放情景下东亚地区积雪面积的未来变化趋势进行了预测,结果表明,未来东亚地区积雪面积将呈现减少趋势,在同一种排放情景下,春季的减小趋势最大,冬季次之,秋季再次之,夏季最小。比较不同区域之间的积雪面积变化,冬、春季青藏高原积雪面积变化趋势要明显大于东亚大陆北部,...     

ENSO,the IOD and the intraseasonal prediction of heat extremes across Australia using POAMA-2

The simulation and prediction of extreme heat over Australia on intraseasonal timescales in association with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is assessed using the Bureau of Meteorology’s Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA). The analysis is based on hindcasts over 1981–2010 and focuses on weeks 2 and 3 of the forecasts, i.e. beyond a typical weather forecast. POAMA simulates the observed increased probabilities of extreme heat during El Niño events, focussed over south eastern and southern Australia in SON and over northern Australia in DJF, and the decreased probabilities of extreme heat during La Niña events, although the magnitude of these relationships is smaller than observed. POAMA also captures the signal of increased probabilities of extreme heat during positive phases of the IOD across southern Australia in SON and over Western Australia in JJA, but again underestimates the strength of the relationship. Shortcomings in the simulation of extreme heat in association with ENSO and the IOD over southern Australia may be linked to deficiencies in the teleconnection with Indian Ocean SSTs. Forecast skill for intraseasonal episodes of extreme heat is assessed using the Symmetric Extremal Dependence Index. Skill is highest over northern Australia in MAM and JJA and over south-eastern and eastern Australia in JJA and SON, whereas skill is generally poor over south-west Western Australia. Results show there are windows of forecast opportunity related to the state of ENSO and the IOD, where the skill in predicting extreme temperatures over certain regions is increased.     

近53a中国气温异常分布的非线性特征

运用一种基于神经网络的非线性主成分分析法（nonlinear principal component analysis,NLP-CA）对中国1951—2003年53 a四季气温距平场（surface air temperature anomaly,SATA）进行分析,NLPCA第一模态结果显示中国四季气温异常具有一定的非线性特征,并且具有显著的季节性差异,即春、夏两季的非线性较强,秋、冬两季较弱。一维NLPCA对原始气温距平场的近似比一维PCA（principal component analysis）更好地反映了气温场的实际分布情况。     

Developing climate change scenarios for Tamil Nadu, India using MAGICC/SCENGEN

This paper describes the projection of climate change scenarios under increased greenhouse gas emissions, using the results of atmospheric-ocean general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 dataset. A score is given to every model based on global and regional performance. Four out of 20 general circulation models (GCMs) were selected based on skill in predicting observed annual temperature and precipitation conditions. The ensemble of these four models shows superiority over the individual model scores. These models were subjected to increases in future anthropogenic radiative forcings for constructing climate change scenarios. Future climate scenarios for Tamil Nadu were developed with MAGICC/SCENGEN software. Model results show both temperature and precipitation increases under increased greenhouse gas scenarios. Northeast and northwest parts of Tamil Nadu show a greater increase in temperature and precipitation. Seasonally, the maximum rise in temperature occurred during the MAM season, followed by DJF, JJA, and SON. Decreasing trends of precipitation were observed during DJF and MAM.     

Optical Properties and Source Analysis of Aerosols over a Desert Area in Dunhuang,Northwest China

Aerosol observational data for 2012 obtained from Dunhuang Station of CARE-China(Campaign on Atmospheric Aerosol Research Network of China) were analyzed to achieve in-depth knowledge of aerosol optical properties over Dunhuang region. The results showed that the annual average aerosol optical depth(AOD) at 500 nm was 0.32 ± 0.06, and the ?ngstr?m exponent(α) was 0.73 ± 0.27. Aerosol optical properties revealed significant seasonal characteristics. Frequent sandstorms in MAM(March–April–May) resulted in the seasonal maximum AOD, 0.41 ± 0.04, and a relatively smaller αvalue, 0.44 ± 0.04. The tourism seasons, JJA(June–July–August) and SON(September–October–November) coincide with serious emissions of small anthropogenic aerosols. While in DJF(December–January–February), the composition of the atmosphere was a mixture of dust particles and polluted aerosols released by domestic heating; the average AOD and αwere 0.29 ± 0.02 and 0.66 ± 0.17, respectively. Different air masses exhibited different degrees of influence on the aerosol concentration over Dunhuang in different seasons. During MAM, ranges of AOD(0.11–1.18) and α(0.06–0.82) were the largest under the dust influence of northwest-short-distance air mass in the four trajectories. Urban aerosols transported by northwest-short-distance air mass accounted for a very large proportion in JJA and the mixed aerosols observed in SON were mainly conveyed by air masses from the west. In DJF, the similar ranges of AOD and α under the three air mass demonstrated the analogous diffusion effects on regional pollutants over Dunhuang.     

热带海面温度对亚马逊旱季降水年际变率的影响及机制

用偏最小二乘(Partial Least Square,PLS)回归方法分析了 1979～2018年影响亚马逊旱季(6～8月)降水年际变率的热带海面温度模态.第一海面温度模态解释了总方差的64％,主要表现为前期亚马逊雨季(12月至次年2月)至旱季(6～8月)热带东太平洋La Ni?a型海面温度异常演变.12月至次年2月...     

A note on the break‐up of lakes and rivers as indicators of climate change

Abstract

A detailed examination has been made of the relationship between the space and time variations of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and the equatorial eastern‐Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in different seasons for the 108‐year period, 1871–1978. There is a strong inverse relationship between the two. The correlation coefficients between All‐India monsoon rainfall and the sea surface temperature anomaly for the concurrent season; June, July and August (JJA) and for the succeeding seasons; September, October and November (SON) and December, January and February (DJF) are consistently and highly significant. Even a random sample of 50 years gave values significant at the 0.1 percent level. The sliding window correlation analysis of 10‐, 20‐ and 30‐year widths indicates that the relationships between All‐India monsoon rainfall and the sea surface temperature anomaly for the concurrent JJA and the succeeding SON and DJF seasons exhibit stability and consistency in significance. For contiguous meteorological sub‐divisions west of longitude 80°E the relationship is highly significant for JJA and for succeeding SON and DJF seasons.     

全球变暖、AMO、IPO对全球陆地降水变化的相对贡献

本文探究了不同海表温度（SST）模态对6—8月和12月—次年2月全球陆地降水的趋势以及年代际变化的相对贡献。首先对热带地区陆地降水和SST进行SVD分析,得到影响陆地降水的趋势和年代际变化主要的海洋模态为：海洋中的全球变暖（Global Warming,GW）、大西洋多年代际振荡（Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,AMO）和太平洋多年代际振荡（Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation,IPO）。其次利用多元线性回归模型进一步定量评估了全球变暖、AMO和IPO对不同地区陆地降水的相对贡献大小。结果表明,全球变暖对陆地降水变化的贡献在冬夏季都是最大的,AMO在6—8月的贡献次之。IPO在12月—次年2月的贡献次之。不同纬度带,三者的贡献不同。GW的贡献在6—8月期间对10°N以北地区较大,南半球受GW的贡献相对较小,GW在12月—次年2月对40°N以北降水贡献异常显著;AMO主要在6—8月对10°～40°S和50°～60°S纬度带上的降水变化的贡献比较大;而IPO主要在12月—次年2月对北半球中纬度降水变化的贡献比较大。GW对许多地区降水变化的方差贡献都是最大的,例如6—8月期间,对北美洲东北部和亚洲降水变化贡献最大,12月—次年2月期间,对欧洲降水变化贡献最大。AMO对6—8月降水变化的方差贡献最大的区域为非洲萨赫勒、西伯利亚和南美洲。12月—次年2月期间,IPO对美国西南部的降水变化贡献最大,此外,北美洲东北部、南美洲西北部、非洲南部、澳大利亚东部、南亚季风区和我国北部的降水在12月—次年2月期间同样受IPO影响显著。进一步利用信息流的方法,探究了GW、AMO和IPO与陆地降水变化之间的因果关系,验证了上述结论。     

Climate impacts of recent multidecadal changes in Atlantic Ocean Sea Surface Temperature: a multimodel comparison

During the twentieth century sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean exhibited prominent multidecadal variations. The source of such variations has yet to be rigorously established—but the question of their impact on climate can be investigated. Here we report on a set of multimodel experiments to examine the impact of patterns of warming in the North Atlantic, and cooling in the South Atlantic, derived from observations, that is characteristic of the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The experiments were carried out with six atmospheric General Circulation Models (including two versions of one model), and a major goal was to assess the extent to which key climate impacts are consistent between the different models. The major climate impacts are found over North and South America, with the strongest impacts over land found over the United States and northern parts of South America. These responses appear to be driven by a combination of an off-equatorial Gill response to diabatic heating over the Caribbean due to increased rainfall within the region and a Northward shift in the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) due to the anomalous cross-equatorial SST gradient. The majority of the models show warmer US land temperatures and reduced Mean Sea Level Pressure during summer (JJA) in response to a warmer North Atlantic and a cooler South Atlantic, in line with observations. However the majority of models show no significant impact on US rainfall during summer. Over northern South America, all models show reduced rainfall in southern hemisphere winter (JJA), whilst in Summer (DJF) there is a generally an increase in rainfall. However, there is a large spread amongst the models in the magnitude of the rainfall anomalies over land. Away from the Americas, there are no consistent significant modelled responses. In particular there are no significant changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the North Atlantic and Europe in Winter (DJF). Additionally, the observed Sahel drying signal in African rainfall is not seen in the modelled responses. Suggesting that, in contrast to some studies, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation was not the primary driver of recent reductions in Sahel rainfall.     

Atmosphere-land cover feedbacks alter the response of surface temperature to CO2 forcing in the western United States

In order to test the sensitivity of regional climate to regional-scale atmosphere-land cover feedbacks, we have employed a regional climate model asynchronously coupled to an equilibrium vegetation model, focusing on the western United States as a case study. CO₂-induced atmosphere-land cover feedbacks resulted in statistically significant seasonal temperature changes of up to 3.5°C, with land cover change accounting for up to 60% of the total seasonal response to elevated atmospheric CO₂ levels. In many areas, such as the Great Basin, albedo acted as the primary control on changes in surface temperature. Along the central coast of California, soil moisture effects magnified the temperature response in JJA and SON, with negative surface soil moisture anomalies accompanied by negative evaporation anomalies, decreasing latent heat flux and further increasing surface temperature. Additionally, negative temperature anomalies were calculated at high elevation in California and Oregon in DJF, MAM and SON, indicating that future warming of these sensitive areas could be mitigated by changes in vegetation distribution and an associated muting of winter snow-temperature feedbacks. Precipitation anomalies were almost universally not statistically significant, and very little change in mean seasonal atmospheric circulation occurred in response to atmosphere-land cover feedbacks. Further, the mean regional temperature sensitivity to regional-scale land cover feedbacks did not exceed the large-scale sensitivity calculated elsewhere, indicating that spatial heterogeneity does not introduce non-linearities in the response of regional climate to CO₂-induced atmosphere-land cover feedbacks.