干湿持续期随机模拟

该文应用数据建模技术, 实现干湿期随机建模。主要包括:利用历史气象资料, 从中采集干湿期数据; 应用实测数据, 创建干湿期经验分布函数; 应用Monte Carlo方法和经验分布参数, 随机生成干湿期序列, 通过和Markov链模型输出的对比分析, 讨论生成序列的统计误差, 测试结果显示, 与两状态Markov链方法相比, 所建模型性能更好。     

Fitting the distribution of dry and wet spells with alternative probability models

The development of the rainfall occurrence model is greatly important not only for data-generation purposes, but also in providing informative resources for future advancements in water-related sectors, such as water resource management and the hydrological and agricultural sectors. Various kinds of probability models had been introduced to a sequence of dry (wet) days by previous researchers in the field. Based on the probability models developed previously, the present study is aimed to propose three types of mixture distributions, namely, the mixture of two log series distributions (LSD), the mixture of the log series Poisson distribution (MLPD), and the mixture of the log series and geometric distributions (MLGD), as the alternative probability models to describe the distribution of dry (wet) spells in daily rainfall events. In order to test the performance of the proposed new models with the other nine existing probability models, 54 data sets which had been published by several authors were reanalyzed in this study. Also, the new data sets of daily observations from the six selected rainfall stations in Peninsular Malaysia for the period 1975–2004 were used. In determining the best fitting distribution to describe the observed distribution of dry (wet) spells, a Chi-square goodness-of-fit test was considered. The results revealed that the new method proposed that MLGD and MLPD showed a better fit as more than half of the data sets successfully fitted the distribution of dry and wet spells. However, the existing models, such as the truncated negative binomial and the modified LSD, were also among the successful probability models to represent the sequence of dry (wet) days in daily rainfall occurrence.     

Modelling Wet and Dry Spells with Mixture Distributions

Summary The object of the study is to develop a discrete precipitation model which is able to simulate local, daily series of precipitation occurrences. The model is fitted to the observed data of two stations, Szeged and Szombathely, in Hungary (1951–1995), with pronounced attention to the reproduction of long dry periods, as characteristic features of the climate in Central Europe. The point of the approach is to model the duration of consecutive dry and wet series, i.e., spells, instead of individual wet or dry days. After having comparisons of three different aspects performed, the selected precipitation threshold is 0.1 mm. This threshold keeps the duration of dry and wet periods more or less balanced, whereas the value of the threshold does not fundamentally influence either the conditional distribution of macrocirculation types or the local weather statistics related to the so defined wet or dry days. The duration of both wet and dry spells are found to be independent of the length of either the preceding (opposite) or the last, but one (identical) state. It is also demonstrated that mixed distributions fairly fit to the wet and dry spells, whereas the simple geometric does not, especially due to the erroneous lack of long dry sequences. Weighted sum of two geometric distributions, as well as that of one geometric and one Poisson distribution exhibits good fitting for the dry spells, whereas only the latter one can be advised to employ for the wet periods. Parameters of the distributions obviously depend on the season and the site, in question. Received June 30, 1999 Revised February 3, 2000     

Spatial trends of dry spells over Peninsular Malaysia during monsoon seasons

This study aims to trace changes in the dry spells over Peninsular Malaysia based on the daily rainfall data from 36 selected rainfall stations which include four subregions, namely northwest, west, southwest, and east for the periods of 1975 to 2004. Six dry spell indices comprising of the main characteristics of dry spells, the persistency of dry events, and the frequency of the short and long duration of dry spells will be used to identify whether or not these indices have increased or decreased over Peninsular Malaysia during the monsoon seasons. The findings of this study indicate that the northwestern areas of the Peninsular could be considered as the driest area since almost all the indices of dry spells over these areas are higher than in the other regions during the northeast (NE) monsoon. Based on the individual and the field significant trends, the results of the Mann–Kendall test indicate that as the total number of dry days, the maximum duration, the mean, and the persistency of dry days are decreased, the trend of the frequency of long dry spells of at least 4 days is also found to decrease in almost all the stations over the Peninsula; however, an increasing trend is observed in the frequency of short spells in these stations during the NE monsoon season. On the other hand, during the southwest monsoon, a positive trend is observed in the characteristics of dry spells including the persistency of two dry days in many stations over the Peninsula. The frequency of longer dry periods exhibits a decreasing trend in most stations over the western areas during both monsoon seasons for the periods of 1975 to 2004.     

Spatial and temporal analysis of dry spells in Greece

Summary ?A spatio-temporal analysis of the dry spells that occur in the Greek area is carried out for an extended period of 40 years (1958–1997). The dry spells can be defined as a number of consecutive days with no rain. The number of days defines the length of the dry spells. The longest spells are identified in central (Cyclades) and the south-east Aegean Sea whereas dry spells with the minimum length are shown over the north-west of the Greek area that reflects the significance of the latitude and the topography. Negative Binomial Distribution and Markov Chains of second order have been used to fit the duration of the dry spells of different lengths. The study of the seasonal and annual distribution of the frequency of occurrence of dry spells revealed that the dry spells in Greece depict a seasonal character, while medium and long sequences are associated with the duration and hazards of drought. Received February 20, 2002; revised September 5, 2002; accepted October 6, 2002     

Spatial and temporal analysis of dry spells in Croatia

Systematic statistical analysis of dry day sequences, which are defined according to 0.1, 1, 5 and 10 mm of precipitation-per-day thresholds, is performed on seasonal and yearly basis. The data analysed come from 25 Croatian meteorological stations and cover the period 1961–2000. Climatological features of the mean and maximum dry spell durations, as well as the frequency of long dry spells (>20 days) are discussed. The results affirm the three main climatological regions in Croatia, with the highlands exhibiting shorter dry spells than the mainland, and the coastal region exhibiting longer dry spells. The prevailing positive trend of both mean and maximal durations is detected during winter and spring seasons, while negative trend dominate in autumn for all thresholds. Positive field significant trends of mean dry spell duration with 5 and 10 mm thresholds are found during spring and the same is valid for annual maximum dry spell duration with a 10 mm threshold. It is found that the Discrete Autoregressive Moving Average (DARMA(1,1)) model can be used to estimate the probabilities of dry spells in Croatia that are up to 20–30 days long.     

Probabilities of Repeated Long Dry Episodes Based on the Poisson Distribution. An Example for Catalonia (NE Spain)

Summary A formulation, similar to the procedure employed in seismic risk analysis, has allowed us to quantify probabilities concerning repeated long episodes of dry days for an arbitrary number of years and their return periods. This formulation is based on both a cumulative expression, similar to the well known Gutemberg-Richter seismic law, and the Poisson distribution. We will assume that this latter distribution is applicable, provided that some constraints affecting the length of the dry episodes and their average number recorded on a year are satisfied. In comparison with other methodologies, based on either Markov chains or Gumbell and Jenkinson formulations, we have been able to quantify probabilities concerning repeated long episodes, including extreme events, contributing significantly to the generation of drought episodes. The formulations that we introduce has been applied to sets of dry episodes obtained from daily pluviometric recordings belonging to 69 gauges of the Instituto Nacional de Meteorología located in Catalonia (NE Spain). The results obtained in terms of return period maps, return period-length curves and probabilities for repeated episodes and for an arbitrary number of years are in agreement with previous pluviometric studies and the spatial diversity of the region due to its orographic complexity. The more relevant synoptic situations causing the long dry episodes are summarized and briefly described. Received June 24, 1997 Revised October 28, 1997     

Dry spell characteristics over India based on IMD and APHRODITE datasets

Selected characteristics of dry spells and associated trends over India during the 1951–2007 period is studied using two gridded datasets: the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Asian Precipitation-Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of the water resources (APHRODITE) datasets. Two precipitation thresholds, 1 and 3 mm, are used to define a dry day (and therefore dry spells) in this study. Comparison of the spatial patterns of the dry spell characteristics (mean number of dry days, mean number of dry spells, mean and maximum duration of dry spells) for the annual and summer monsoon period obtained with both datasets agree overall, except for the northernmost part of India. The number of dry days obtained with APHRODITE is larger for this region compared to IMD, which is consistent with the smaller precipitation for the region in APHRODITE. These differences are also visible in the spatial patterns of mean and maximum dry spell durations. Analysis of field significance associated with trends, at the level of 34 predefined meteorological subdivisions over the mainland, suggests better agreement between the two datasets in positive trends associated with number of dry days for the annual and summer monsoon period, for both thresholds. Important differences between the two datasets are noted in the field significance associated with the negative trends. While negative trends in annual maximum duration of dry spells appear field significant for the desert regions according to both datasets, they are found field significant for two regions (Punjab and South Interior Karnataka) for the monsoon period for both datasets. This study, in addition to providing information on the spatial and temporal patterns associated with dry spell characteristics, also allows identification of regions and characteristics where the two datasets agree/disagree.     

Numerical simulation of the probability distribution function of precipitation over Morocco

A variable resolution version of the global GCM ARPEGE is constructed, so that Morocco has maximum resolution. A 30-year simulation, driven by observed sea surface temperature 1971–2000, is carried out. This paper examines the precipitation over northern Morocco during the extended winter season (from October to March), comparing model simulations with daily values at 14 stations. An approach utilising weather regimes has been adopted. The model is successful in representing the frequency and the interannual variability of the regimes. The precipitation over Morocco differs from one regime to another, but the model is not enough rainy along the Atlantic coast in general. The model is too persistent with too long dry spells, but is able to produce heavy rainfall as well as long dry periods in the centre of the area.     

Statistical modeling of CMIP5 projected changes in extreme wet spells over China in the late 21st century

The observed intensity, frequency, and duration (IFD) of summer wet spells, defined here as extreme events with one or more consecutive days in which daily precipitation exceeds a given threshold (the 95th percentile), and their future changes in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the late 21st century over China, are investigated by using the wet spell model (WSM) and by extending the point process approach to extreme value analysis. Wet spell intensity is modeled by a conditional generalized Pareto distribution, frequency by a Poisson distribution, and duration by a geometric distribution, respectively. The WSM is able to realistically model summer extreme rainfall spells during 1961–2005, as verified with observations at 553 stations throughout China. To minimize the impact of systematic biases over China in the global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), five best GCMs are selected based on their performance to reproduce observed wet spell IFD and average precipitation during the historical period. Furthermore, a quantile–quantile scaling correction procedure is proposed and applied to produce ensemble projections of wet spell IFD and corresponding probability distributions. The results show that in the late 21st century, most of China will experience more extreme rainfall and less low-intensity rainfall. The intensity and frequency of wet spells are projected to increase considerably, while the duration of wet spells will increase but to a much less extent. The IFD changes in RCP8.5 are in general much larger than those in RCP4.5.     

Preserving spatial linear correlations between neighboring stations in simulating daily precipitation using extended Markov models

Most stochastic weather generators have their focus on precipitation because it is the most important variable affecting environmental processes. One of the methods to reproduce the precipitation occurrence time series is to use a Markov process. But, in addition to the simulation of short-term autocorrelations in one station, it is sometimes important to preserve the spatial linear correlations (SLC) between neighboring stations as well. In this research, an extension of one-site Markov models was proposed to preserve the SLC between neighboring stations. Qazvin station was utilized as the reference station and Takestan (TK), Magsal, Nirougah, and Taleghan stations were used as the target stations. The performances of different models were assessed in relation to the simulation of dry and wet spells and short-term dependencies in precipitation time series. The results revealed that in TK station, a Markov model with a first-order spatial model could be selected as the best model, while in the other stations, a model with the order of two or three could be selected. The selected (i.e., best) models were assessed in relation to preserving the SLC between neighboring stations. The results depicted that these models were very capable in preserving the SLC between the reference station and any of the target stations. But, their performances were weaker when the SLC between the other stations were compared. In order to resolve this issue, spatially correlated random numbers were utilized instead of independent random numbers while generating synthetic time series using the Markov models. Although this method slightly reduced the model performances in relation to dry and wet spells and short-term dependencies, the improvements related to the simulation of the SLC between the other stations were substantial.     

Trends of summer dry spells in China during the late twentieth century

Summary In the present study the trends in frequency and duration of dry spells in six sub-regions of China were analyzed for the summer-half-year season (April–September) in period 1956–2000. A dry spell was defined as a number of consecutive days without measurable precipitation. For the frequency of short dry spells (length <10 days), significant changes are observed in the North, Northeast and Southwest China. For the frequency of long dry spells (length 10 days) there are significant trends in North and Northeast China; while no remarkable trends in frequency are found in other regions. There are also significant lengthening trends in dry spell duration in North and Northeast China, resulting mainly from the long-term changes in short dry spells. No significant change is observed for the maximum length in all regions. It is found that the temporal distribution of precipitation within the rainy season would notably impact the features of dry spells. An increase in the precipitation amount does not necessarily mean a synchronous reduction in dry spell frequency and/or duration. Seasonal mean anomalies of 500hPa heights in association with the long dry spells show similar spatial patterns over the middle to high latitudes for five of the six sub-regions (with exception of the case of Southwest China), resembling a west–east direction dipole in latitudes about 30°N northwards. For the case of Southwest China the dominant feature in 500hPa heights is the negative anomalies over most middle to high latitude Asia. Among these cases there are recognizable differences, particularly, in the tropical regions in western Pacific. That would provide useful information of circulation background for understanding the climate extremes.     

Recent changes in precipitation extremes in the Heihe River basin,Northwest China

Changes in rainfall extremes pose a serious and additional threat to water resources planning and management, natural and artificial oasis stability, and sustainable development in the fragile ecosystems of arid inland river basins. In this study, the trend and temporal variation of extreme precipitation are analyzed using daily precipitation datasets at 11 stations over the arid inland Heihe River basin in Northwest China from 1960 to 2011. Eight indices of extreme precipitation are studied. The results show statistically significant and large-magnitude increasing and decreasing trends for most indices, primarily in the Qilian Mountains and eastern Hexi Corridor. More frequent and intense rainfall extremes have occurred in the southern part of the desert area than in the northern portion. In general, the temporal variation in precipitation extremes has changed throughout the basin. Wet day precipitation and heavy precipitation days show statistically significant linear increasing trends and step changes in the Qilian Mountains and Hexi Corridor. Consecutive dry days have decreased obviously in the region in most years after approximately the late 1980s, but meanwhile very long dry spells have increased, especially in the Hexi Corridor. The probability density function indicates that very long wet spells have increased in the Qilian Mountains. The East Asian summer monsoon index and western Pacific subtropical high intensity index possess strong and significant negative and positive correlations with rainfall extremes, respectively. Changes in land surface characteristics and the increase in water vapor in the wet season have also contributed to the changes in precipitation extremes over the river basin.     

Fitting optimum order of Markov chain models for daily rainfall occurrences in Peninsular Malaysia

The analysis of the daily rainfall occurrence behavior is becoming more important, particularly in water-related sectors. Many studies have identified a more comprehensive pattern of the daily rainfall behavior based on the Markov chain models. One of the aims in fitting the Markov chain models of various orders to the daily rainfall occurrence is to determine the optimum order. In this study, the optimum order of the Markov chain models for a 5-day sequence will be examined in each of the 18 rainfall stations in Peninsular Malaysia, which have been selected based on the availability of the data, using the Akaike’s (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC). The identification of the most appropriate order in describing the distribution of the wet (dry) spells for each of the rainfall stations is obtained using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test. It is found that the optimum order varies according to the levels of threshold used (e.g., either 0.1 or 10.0 mm), the locations of the region and the types of monsoon seasons. At most stations, the Markov chain models of a higher order are found to be optimum for rainfall occurrence during the northeast monsoon season for both levels of threshold. However, it is generally found that regardless of the monsoon seasons, the first-order model is optimum for the northwestern and eastern regions of the peninsula when the level of thresholds of 10.0 mm is considered. The analysis indicates that the first order of the Markov chain model is found to be most appropriate for describing the distribution of wet spells, whereas the higher-order models are found to be adequate for the dry spells in most of the rainfall stations for both threshold levels and monsoon seasons.     

Trends in dry spells across Catalonia (NE Spain) during the second half of the 20th century

Summary A spatiotemporal trend analysis of different magnitudes related to the number and length of the dry spells in Catalonia (NE Spain) has been conducted based on daily rainfall records taken from 40 rain gauges during the second half of the 20^th century. Dry spells have been computed for threshold levels of 0.1, 1, 5 and 10 mm/day at annual and semi-annual scales. The winter half-year is defined from October to March and the summer half-year from April to September. The magnitudes considered are the number, the maximum length and the mean length of the dry spells for every year and half-year. The spatial patterns of the average values of these magnitudes at the annual scale show a greater similarity with those of the summer half-year than with those of the winter half-year. A S–N or SW–NE gradient of the number of dry spells appears during the summer half-year for every threshold level. Trends of the analysed magnitudes are derived from linear regression and local statistical significances at the 95% confidence level are established using the Mann-Kendall test. Field significant trends are investigated by means of Monte Carlo simulations. The most relevant finding is that the number of dry spells per year depicts significant trends for the annual and winter-half series, with an overall decreasing trend for 5 and 10 mm/day thresholds. These observed trends are in agreement with changes in North Atlantic cyclone tracks and in Mediterranean Low dynamics, due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.     

A study on the water vapor transport trend and water vapor source of the Tibetan Plateau

This study presents results of the pilot experiments made with new parametric multi-site multi-variable stochastic daily weather generator (WG) SPAGETTA. The experiments are performed for eight European regions and we focus on spatial characteristics of temperature. The WG is calibrated using the gridded weather data E-OBS. In evaluating the generator, the spatial and temporal temperature autocorrelations derived from the synthetic series were found to perfectly fit the values derived from the calibration data. Next, the WG is validated in terms of the frequency of “spatial hot days” and the annual maximum length of “spatial hot spells”. The results indicate a very good correspondence between characteristics derived from synthetic and calibration data. As part of the validation tests, the performance of the WG is compared with a regional climate model (RCM), which shows a similar performance as the generator. In a final experiment, the use of the WG for the future climate is demonstrated, the WG parameters (including the temperature autocorrelations) calibrated with the observed data are modified according to the RCM-based changes in these parameters. While analyzing synthetic series produced with the modified generator, we discuss partial impacts due to changes in individual WG parameters on the spatial hot days and spells. We show that the impacts are mainly (but not only) due to changes in temperature averages. The projected changes in temperature autocorrelations have also some impacts, larger for the spatial hot spells than for the spatial hot days. Climate change impacts on spatial hot days/spells based on the WG are compared with impacts based on the RCM, and we conclude that the differences are mainly due to simplifying assumptions adopted in our pilot experiment.     

Evaluation and response of winter cold spells over Western Europe in CMIP5 models

This paper is dedicated to the analysis of winter cold spells over Western Europe in the simulations of the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Both model biases and responses in a warming climate are discussed using historical simulations and the 8.5 W/m² Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) scenario, respectively on the 1979–2008 and 2070–2099 periods. A percentile-based index (10th percentile of daily minimum temperature, Q10) with duration and spatial extent criteria is used to define cold spells. Related diagnostics (intensity, duration, extent, and severity as a combination of the former three statistics) of 13 models are compared to observations and suggest that models biases on severity are mainly due to the intensity parameter rather than to duration and extent. Some hypotheses are proposed to explain these biases, that involve large-scale dynamics and/or radiative fluxes related to clouds. Evolution of cold spells characteristics by the end of the century is then discussed by comparing RCP8.5 and historical simulations. In line with the projected rise of mean temperature, “present-climate” cold spells (computed with the 1979–2008 10th percentile, Q10P) are projected to be much less frequent and, except in one model, less severe. When cold spells are defined from the future 10th percentile threshold (“future-climate” cold spells, Q10F), all models simulate a decrease of their intensity linearly related to the seasonal mean warming. Some insights are given to explain the inter-model diversity in the magnitude of the cold spells response. In particular, the snow-albedo feedback is suggested to play an important role, while for some models changes in large-scale dynamics are also not negligible.     

The application of a present-day climatic model to the late quaternary in southern Africa

A present-day climatic model is presented in which extended wet spells of near-decadal duration and dry spells of similar length are explained on the basis of surface and upper tropospheric circulation variations. Wet spells are shown to be the result of increased tropical atmospheric disturbances and tropical-temperate interaction, and to be linked to variations in the Walker Circulation. Conversely, dry spells are shown to result from diminished tropical activity over southern Africa, equatorward movement of westerly storm tracks and temperate perturbations in the westerlies.The present-day analogue is compared to preliminary spatial reconstructions of the climate of southern Africa over the last twenty-five millennia and is shown to have wide applicability in the explanation of the late-Quaternary palaeoclimates of the subcontinent. In particular, it is argued that the Last Glacial Maximum was associated with northward-displaced circulation conditions similar to those of present-day dry spells over the summer rainfall region, whereas the extensive moist conditions that prevailed for several thousand years after 9000 BP were analogous to present-day wet spell conditions with little apparent displacement of major circulation features.     

东北地区降水日数、强度和持续时间的年代际变化

利用93站1951—2002年逐日降水资料，分析了东北地区不同强度降水事件的时空演变特征及其对旱涝的影响。结果表明:52年来，东北地区小雨事件对年降水量的贡献率呈显著增加趋势，中雨的贡献率略为减少，大雨和暴雨的贡献率变化不大；东北年总雨日减少趋势非常明显，雨日的减少主要体现在小雨日数的减少；年降水强度表现为明显的增强趋势，主要体现为小雨和暴雨强度增强；20世纪80年代中期之前多小雨事件，80年代中期之后多中雨以上强度的降水，特别是90年代中期之后多暴雨事件。在显著变暖的20世纪90年代，降水日数明显减少，但暴雨日数基本不变，强度明显增强。对东北地区降水量、降水变幅、降水事件的变化特征分析表明:该区域降水有向不均衡、极端化发展的趋势，旱涝灾害也有加重趋势。     

A GCM Simulation of Heat Waves, Dry Spells, and Their Relationships to Circulation

Heat waves and dry spells are analyzed (i) at eightstations in south Moravia (Czech Republic), (ii) inthe control ECHAM3 GCM run at the gridpoint closest tothe study area, and (iii) in the ECHAM3 GCM run fordoubled CO₂ concentrations (scenario A) at thesame gridpoint (heat waves only). The GCM outputs arevalidated both against individual station data andareally representative values. In the control run, theheat waves are too long, appear later in the year,peak at higher temperatures and their numbers areunder- (over-) estimated in June and July (in August).The simulated dry spells are too long, and the annualcycle of their occurrence is distorted.Mid-tropospheric circulation, and heat waves and dryspells are linked much less tightly in the controlclimate than in the observed. Since mid-troposphericcirculation is simulated fairly successfully, wesuggest the hypothesis that either the air-masstransformation and local processes are too strong inthe model or the simulated advection is too weak. Inthe scenario A climate, the heat waves become a commonphenomenon: warming of 4.5 °C in summer(difference between scenario A and control climates)induces a five-fold increase in the frequency oftropical days and an immense enhancement of extremityof heat waves. The results of the study underline theneed for (i) a proper validation of the GCM outputbefore a climate impact study is conducted and (ii)translation of large-scale information from GCMs intolocal scales using downscaling and stochasticmodelling techniques in order to reduce GCMs' biases.