Albedo models for the residual south polar cap on Mars: Implications for the stability of the cap under near-perihelion global dust storm conditions

It is uncertain whether the residual (perennial) south polar cap on Mars is a transitory or a permanent feature in the current Martian climate. While there is no firm evidence for complete disappearance of the cap in the past, clearly observable changes have been documented. Observations suggest that the perennial cap lost more CO₂ material in the spring/summer season prior to the Mariner 9 mission than in those same seasons monitored by Viking and Mars Global Surveyor. In this paper we examine one process that may contribute to these changes—the radiative effects of a planet encircling dust storm that starts during late Martian southern spring on the stability of the perennial south polar cap. To approach this, we model the radiative transfer through a dusty planetary atmosphere bounded by a sublimating CO₂ surface.A critical parameter for this modeling is the surface albedo spectrum from the near-UV to the thermal-IR, which was determined from both space-craft and Earth-based observations covering multiple wavelength regimes. Such a multi-wavelength approach is highly desirable since one spectral band by itself cannot tightly constrain the three-parameter space for polar surface albedo models, namely photon “scattering length” in the CO₂ ice and the amounts of intermixed water and dust.Our results suggest that a planet-encircling dust storm with onset near solstice can affect the perennial cap's stability, leading to advanced sublimation in a “dusty” year. Since the total amount of solid CO₂ removed by a single storm may be less than the total CO₂ thickness, a series of dust storms would be required to remove the entire residual CO₂ ice layer from the south perennial cap.     

The stability and transport of carbon dioxide on Iapetus

Carbon dioxide has been detected associated with Iapetus' dark material by the Cassini spacecraft. This CO₂ may be primordial and/or resulting from ongoing production by photolysis of water-ice in the presence of carbonaceous material [Allamandola, L.J., Sandford, S.A., Valero, G.J., 1988. Icarus 76, 225-252]. Although any primordial CO₂ would likely be complexed with the dark material and thus stable against thermal transport to Iapetus' poles [Buratti, B.J., and 28 colleagues, 2005. Astrophys. J. 622, L149-L152], active production of CO₂ would result in some fraction of the CO₂ being mobile enough to allow the accumulation of CO₂ at Iapetus' poles. We develop a computer model to simulate ballistic transport of CO₂ ice on Iapetus, accounting for Iapetus' gravitational binding energy and polar cold traps. We find that the residence time of CO₂ ice outside the polar regions is very short; a sheet of CO₂ ice near the equator of Iapetus decreases in thickness at a rate of 50 mm year⁻¹. The sublimated CO₂ will ballistically move around Iapetus until it reaches the polar cold traps where it can be sequestered for up to 15 years. If the total surface inventory of CO₂ exceeds 3×¹⁰⁷ kg, the polar ice cap will be permanent. While CO₂ is moving around the surface, a small percentage will eventually reach escape velocity and be lost from the system. As such, a seasonal polar cap is lost at rate of 12% every solar orbit as the CO₂ moves between the two polar cold traps.     

The effect of ground ice on the Martian seasonal CO2 cycle

The mostly carbon dioxide (CO₂) atmosphere of Mars condenses and sublimes in the polar regions, giving rise to the familiar waxing and waning of its polar caps. The signature of this seasonal CO₂ cycle has been detected in surface pressure measurements from the Viking and Pathfinder landers. The amount of CO₂ that condenses during fall and winter is controlled by the net polar energy loss, which is dominated by emitted infrared radiation from the cap itself. However, models of the CO₂ cycle match the surface pressure data only if the emitted radiation is artificially suppressed suggesting that they are missing a heat source. Here we show that the missing heat source is the conducted energy coming from soil that contains water ice very close to the surface. The presence of ice significantly increases the thermal conductivity of the ground such that more of the solar energy absorbed at the surface during summer is conducted downward into the ground where it is stored and released back to the surface during fall and winter thereby retarding the CO₂ condensation rate. The reduction in the condensation rate is very sensitive to the depth of the soil/ice interface, which our models suggest is about 8 cm in the Northern Hemisphere and 11 cm in the Southern Hemisphere. This is consistent with the detection of significant amounts of polar ground ice by the Mars Odyssey Gamma Ray Spectrometer and provides an independent means for assessing how close to the surface the ice must be. Our results also provide an accurate determination of the global annual mean size of the atmosphere and cap CO₂ reservoirs, which are, respectively, 6.1 and 0.9 hPa. They also indicate that general circulation models will need to account for the effect of ground ice in their simulations of the seasonal CO₂ cycle.     

The astronomical theory of climatic change on Mars

We examine the response of Martian climate to changes in solar energy deposition caused by variations of the Martian orbit and obliquity. We systematically investigate the seasonal cycles of carbon dioxide, water, and dust to provide a complete picture of the climate for various orbital configurations. We find that at low obliquity (15°) the atmospheric pressure will fall below 1 mbar; dust storms will cease; thick permanent CO₂ caps will form; the regolith will release CO₂; and H₂O polar ice sheets will develop as the permafrost boundaries move poleward. At high obliquity (35°) the annual average polar temperature will increase by about 10°K, slightly desorbing the polar regolith and causing the atmospheric pressure to increase by not more than 10 to 20 mbar. Summer polar ground temperatures as high as 273°K will occur. Water ice caps will be unstable and may disappear as the equilibrium permafrost boundary moves equatorward. However, at high eccentricity, polar ice sheets will be favored at one pole over the other. At high obliquity dust storms may occur during summers in both hemispheres, independent of the eccentricity cycle. Eccentricity and longitude of perihelion are most significant at modest obliquity (25°). At high eccentricity and when the longitude of perihelion is close to the location of solstice hemispherical asymmetry in dust-storm generation and in polar ice extent and albedo will occur.The systematic examination of the relation of climate and planetary orbit provides a new theory for the formation of the polar laminae. The terraced structure of the polar laminae originates when eccentricity and/or obliquity variations begin to drive water ice off the dusty permanent H₂O polar caps. Then a thin (meters) layer of consolidated dust forms on top of a dirty, slightly thicker (tens of meters) ice sheet and the composite is preserved as a layer of laminae composed predominately of water ice. Because of insolation variation on slopes, a series of poleward- and equatorward-facing scarps are formed where the edges of the laminae are exposed. Independently of orbital variations, these scarps propagate poleward both by erosion of the equatorward slopes and by deposition on the poleward slopes. Scarp propagation resurfaces and recycles the laminae forming the distinctive spiral bands of terraces observed and provides a supply of water to form new permanent ice caps. The polar laminae boundary marks the furthest eqautorward extension of the permanent H₂O caps as the orbit varies. The polar debris boundary marks the furthest equatorward extension of the annual CO₂ caps as the orbit varies.The Martian regolith is now a significant geochemical sink for carbon dioxide. CO₂ has been irreversibly removed from the atmosphere by carbonate formation. CO₂ has also benn removed by regolith adsorption. Polar temperature increases caused by orbital variations are not great enough     

Martian Seasonal CO2 Ice in Polygonal Troughs in Southern Polar Region: Role of the Distribution of Subsurface H2O Ice

The Mars Orbiter Camera onboard the Mars Global Surveyor has obtained several images of polygonal features in the southern polar region. In images taken during the end of the southern spring, when the surrounding surface is free of the seasonal frost, CO₂ ice still appears to be present within the polygonal troughs. In Earth's polar regions, polygons such as these are indicative of water ice in the ground below. We analyzed the seasonal evolution of the thermal state and the CO₂ content of these features. Our 2-D model includes condensation and sublimation of the CO₂ ice, a self consistent treatment of the variations of the thermal properties of the regolith, and the seasonal variations of the local atmospheric pressure which we take from the results of a general circulation model. We find that the residence time of seasonal CO₂ ice in troughs depends not only on atmospheric opacity and albedo of the CO₂ ice, but also and most significantly on the distribution of water ice in the regolith. Optical properties of the atmosphere and surface CO₂ ice can be independently obtained from observations. To date this is not true about the distribution of water ice below the surface. Our analysis quantifies the dependence of the seasonal cycle of the CO₂ ice within the troughs on the assumed distribution of the water ice below the surface. We show that presence of water ice in the ground at a depth smaller than the depth of the troughs reduces winter condensation rate of CO₂ ice. This is due to higher heat flux conducted from the water ice rich regolith toward the facets of the troughs.     

Polar warming in the middle atmosphere of Mars

We report ground-based laser heterodyne spectroscopy of non-thermal emission in the cores of the 10.33-μmR(8) and 10.72-μmP(32) lines of ¹²C¹⁶O₂, obtained at 23 locations on the disk of Mars during the 1984 opposition, at L_s = 130°. The data were obtained at a sub-Doppler spectral resolution, and the temperature of the middle Martian atmosphere (50–85 km) is derived from the frequency width and intensity of the R(8) emission, and from the total intensity of the P(32) emission. We find that the temperature of the middle Martian atmosphere varies with latitude. Near the subsolar latitude, the average 50- to 85-km temperature is close to the radiative equilibrium value for a CO₂ atmosphere. However, at high latitudes in both the northern (summer) and southern (winter) hemispheres the 50- to 85-km temperature exceeds the CO₂ radiative equilibrium value; a meridional gradient in the range of 0.4 – 0.9°K per degree of latitude is indicated by our data. The highest temperatures are seen at high latitudes in the winter hemisphere, reminiscent of the seasonal effects seen at the Earth's mesopause. As in the terrestrial case, this winter polar warming in the Martian middle atmosphere necessitates departures from radiative equilibrium; dynamical heating of order 4 × 10² ergs g⁻¹ sec⁻¹ is required at the edge of the winter polar night. A comparison with 2-D circulation models shows that the presence of atmospheric dust may enhance this dynamical heating at high winter latitudes, and may also account for heating at high latitudes in the summer hemisphere.     

CO2 clouds, CAPE and convection on Mars: Observations and general circulation modeling

The thermal emission spectrometer (TES) and the radio science (RS) experiment flying on board the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft have made observations of atmospheric temperatures below the saturation temperature of carbon dioxide (CO₂). This supersaturated air provides a source of convective available potential energy (CAPE), which, when realized may result in vigorous convective mixing. To this point, most Mars atmospheric models have assumed vertical mixing only when the dry adiabatic lapse rate is exceeded. Mixing associated with the formation of CO₂ clouds could have a profound effect on the vertical structure of the polar night, altering the distribution of temperature, aerosols, and gasses.Presented in this work are estimates of the total planetary inventory of CAPE and the potential convective energy flux (PCEF) derived from RS and TES temperature profiles. A new Mars Global Circulation Model (MGCM) CO₂ cloud model is developed to better understand the distribution of observed CAPE and its potential effect on Martian polar dynamics and heat exchange, as well as effects on the climate as a whole. The new CO₂ cloud model takes into account the necessary cloud microphysics that allow for supersaturation to occur and includes a parameterization for CO₂ cloud convection. It is found that when CO₂ cloud convective mixing is included, model results are in much better agreement with the observations of the total integrated CAPE as well as total column non-condensable gas concentrations presented by Sprague et al. [2005a, GRS measurements of Ar in Mars’ atmosphere, American Astronomical Society, DPS meeting #37, #24.08, and 2005b, Distribution and Abundance of Mars’ Atmospheric Argon, 36th Annual Lunar and Planetary Science Conference, #2085] When the radiative effects of water ice clouds are included the agreement is further improved.     

Tracking the edge of the south seasonal polar cap of Mars

The advance and retreat of the polar caps were one of the first observations that indicated Mars had seasons. Because a large portion of the atmosphere is cycled in and out of the seasonal caps during the year, the frost deposits play a significant role in regional and global atmospheric circulation. Understanding the nature of the seasonal polar caps is imperative if we are to understand the current Martian climate. In this study, we track the seasonal cap edges as a function of season and longitude for the fall and winter seasons (MY27), using data from the Planetary Fourier Spectrometer (PFS) onboard the Mars Express (MEX) ESA mission. Making use of the rapid rise (decrease) in surface temperature that occurs when CO₂ ice is removed (deposited), in a first approach, we defined the advancing cap edge to be where the surface temperature drops below 150 K, and the retreating cap edge where the surface temperature rises above 160 K. In this case, starting from Ls∼50°, the edge progression speed start to be longitude dependent. In the hemisphere that extends form the eastern limit of the Hellas basin to the western limit of the Argyrae basin (and containing the two) the edges progression speed is about a half than that of the other hemisphere; the cap is thus asymmetric and, unexpectedly, no CO₂ ice seems to be present inside the basins. This is because the above mentioned surface temperatures used in this approach to detect the cap edges are not adequate (too low) for the high-pressure regions inside the basins where, following the Clausius–Clapeyron's law, the CO₂ condensation temperature can be several degrees higher than that of the adjacent lower-pressure regions. In the second, final approach, special attention has been given to this aspect and the advancing and retreating cap edges are defined where, respectively, the surface temperatures drop below and rise above the CO₂ condensation temperature for the actual surface pressure values. Now, the results show an opposite situation than the previous one, with the progression speed being higher and the cap more extended (up to −30° latitude) in the hemisphere containing the two major Martian basins. During the fall season, up to Ls∼50° the South Martian polar cap consists of CO₂ frost deposits that advance towards lower latitudes at a constant speed of 10° of latitude per 15 degrees of Ls. The maximum extension (−40° latitude) of the South polar cap occurs somewhere in the 80°–90° Ls range. At the winter solstice, when the edges of the polar night start moving poleward, the cap recession has already started, in response to seasonal changes in insolation. The CO₂ ice South polar cap will recede with a constant speed of ∼5° of latitude every 25° degrees of Ls during the whole winter. The longitudinal asymmetries reduce during the cap retreat and completely disappear around Ls=145°.     

Modelling of atmospheric dust extinction and surface reflectance of Mars applying a radiative transfer simulation in the 2.0 and 2.7 μm CO2 bands

Infrared radiation spectra of Mars which can be measured by an orbiting Planetary Fourier Spectrometer (PFS) have been simulated in the spectral region from 1 to 50 μm. The radiative transfer simulation technique considers absorption, emission and multiple scattering by molecular (CO₂, H₂O, CO) and particulate (palagonite) species. It is shown that the contribution from atmospheric dust extinction and surface reflectance can be separated in the region of the CO₂ bands at 2.0 and 2.7 μm. Quantitative results of simultaneous surface pressure, reflectance and aerosol optical depth retrievals are discussed.     

Modeling of the 10-μm natural laser emission from the mesospheres of Mars and Venus

Nonthermal emission which occurs in the cores of the 9.4- and 10.4-μm CO₂ bands on Mars has been recently identified as a natural atmospheric laser. The emission is believed to be excited by absorption of near-ir solar flux, followed by collisional transfer to the 00°1 state of CO₂. A numerical model based on this mechanism is developed which includes the solar pumping contributed by ～2 × 10⁴ near-ir CO₂ lines. The non-Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium (NLTE) radiative transfer problem is solved to obtain the 00°1 vibrational state population. This model successfully reproduces the existing center-to-limb observations, although higher spatial resolution observations are needed for a definitive test. The model also predicts total fluxes which are close to the observed values. The strength of the emission is predicted to be closely related to the instantaneous near-ir solar heating rate. Calculation of the CO₂ level populations in this model supports the identification of this emission as a natural atmospheric laser. Both Mars and Venus are predicted to exhibit level inversions; at large zenith distances several percent of the emergent intensity will be due to stimulated emission. While the stimulated emission present in these lines is not large enough to be of importance to mesospheric radiative equilibrium, it has other interesting consequences. The construction of large-volume radiation-pumped lasers, which utilize CO₂ planetary mesospheres as a gain medium, is theoretically possible.     

Sublimation kinetics of CO2 ice on Mars

Dynamic models of the martian polar caps are in abundance, but most rely on the assumption that the rate of sublimation of CO₂ ice can be calculated from heat transfer and lack experimental verification. We experimentally measured the sublimation rate of pure CO₂ ice under simulated martian conditions as a test of this assumption, developed a model based on our experimental results, and compared our model's predictions with observations from several martian missions (MRO, MGS, Viking). We show that sun irradiance is the primary control for the sublimation of CO₂ ice on the martian poles with the amount of radiation penetrating the surface being controlled by variations in the optical depth, ensuring the formation and sublimation of the seasonal cap. Our model confirmed by comparison of MGS-MOC and MRO-HiRISE images, separated by 2-3 martian years, shows that ∼0.4 m are currently being lost from the south perennial cap per martian year. At this rate, the ∼2.4-m-thick south CO₂ perennial cap will disappear in about 6-7 martian years, unless a short-scale climatic cycle alters this rate of retreat.     

Enhanced CO2 trapping in water ice via atmospheric deposition with relevance to Mars

It has been suggested that inclusions of CO₂ or CO₂ clathrate hydrates may comprise a portion of the polar deposits on Mars. Here we present results from an experimental study in which CO₂ molecules were trapped in water ice deposited from CO₂/H₂O atmospheres at temperatures relevant for the polar regions of Mars. Fourier-Transform Infrared spectroscopy was used to monitor the phase of the condensed ice, and temperature programmed desorption was used to quantify the ratio of species in the generated ice films. Our results show that when H₂O ice is deposited at 140-165 K, CO₂ is trapped in large quantities, greater than expected based on lower temperature studies in amorphous ice. The trapping occurs at pressures well below the condensation point for pure CO₂ ice, and therefore this mechanism may allow for CO₂ deposition at the poles during warmer periods. The amount of trapped CO₂ varied from 3% to 16% by mass at 160 K, depending on the substrate studied. Substrates studied were a tetrahydrofuran (C₄H₈O) base clathrate and Fe-montmorillonite clay, an analog for Mars soil. Experimental evidence indicates that the ice structures are likely CO₂ clathrate hydrates. These results have implications for the CO₂ content, overall composition, and density of the polar deposits on Mars.     

Visible albedo of Mars' south polar cap: 2003 HST observations

The martian south polar cap was observed with the High Resolution Camera on Hubble Space Telescope near the very favorable 2003 opposition. Well calibrated images taken at a number of wavelengths in visible and UV were used to measure the apparent Lambert albedos of two bright polar areas. These were corrected for the effects of atmospheric dust to obtain wavelength-dependent surface albedos, which are diagnostic for the purity and grain size of the CO₂ deposits. The bolometric albedo estimated from these data may be sufficiently large to be consistent with stability of the perennial CO₂ in the residual cap.     

Quantum chemical calculation on the potential energy surface of H2CO3 and its implication for martian chemistry

A detailed theoretical study of the potential energy surface of H₂CO₃ is explored at the CCSD(T)//B3LYP/aug-cc-pVTZ level. On the potential energy surface, 12 isomers of H₂CO₃ are located. Their molecular properties such as geometries, vibrational frequencies, rotational constants, dipole moments, gas-phase acidities, and relative energies are calculated. Various reaction pathways and decomposition products have also been discussed. Among these products, CO₂ and H₂O are definitely the most favorable products with predominant abundance. Large energy barriers are predicted for other dissociation channels leading to the formation of oxygen, formaldehyde, and so on. These high energy channels are not important thermodynamically and kinetically, but they might occur in the presence of cosmic rays in astronomic environments. From the present work we suggest that chemical reactions between CO₂ and H₂O at the polar ice caps could be a potential source of H₂CO and O₂, in addition to the previously proposed mechanisms, i.e., the oxidation of methane and cosmic-ray-mediated production through the intermediate H₂CO₃. The results of the present work may provide useful data to improve our understanding of icy chemistry at the polar caps on Mars.     

Carbon dioxide-water clathrate as a reservoir of CO2 on Mars

It has been suggested that the residual polar caps of Mars contain a reservoir of permanently frozen carbon dioxide which is controlling the atmospheric pressure. However, observational data and models of the polar heat balance suggest that the temperatures of the Martian poles are too high for solid CO₂ to survive permanently. On the other hand, the icelike compound carbon dioxide-water clathrate (CO₂ · 6H₂O) could function as a CO₂ reservoir instead of solid CO₂, because it is stable at higher temperatures. This paper shows that the permanent polar caps may contain several millibars of CO₂ in the form of clathrate, and discusses the implications of this permanent clathrate reservoir for the present and past atmospheric pressure on Mars.     

Martian glaciation and the flow of solid CO2

The flow law determined experimentally for solid CO₂ establishes that a hypothesis of glacial flow of CO₂ at the Martian poles is not physically unrealistic. Compression experiments carried out under 1 atm pressure and constant strain rate demonstrate that the strength of CO₂ near its sublimation point is considerably less than the strength of water ice near its melting point. The data fit a power law “creep” equation of the form

$\text{?}\text{?}\text{= (4 × 10}{}^6\text{) σ}{}^{3.9}\text{exp}\text{(}\text{?12 200}\text{RT}\text{)}$

, where ? is compressive strain rate (sec^?1), σ is compressive stress (bars), R is the gas constant in calories per mole, and T is absolute temperature. The exponent of σ of 3.9 contrasts with a value near 3.1 for water ice, and indicates that the strain rate is somewhat more sensitive to stress for CO₂ than for water. Likewise, the low activation energy for creep, 12 200 cal mole^?1, illustrates that CO₂ is not highly sensitive to temperature and is thus likely to flow over a broad range of temperatures below its melting point. Strength values for CO₂ are of the order of one-tenth to one-third the strength of ice under equivalent conditions.A plausible glacial model for the Martian polar caps can be constructed and is helpful in explaining the unique character of the polar regions. CO₂-rich layers deposited near the pole would have flowed outward laterally to relieve high internal shear stresses. The topography of the polar caps, the uniform layering of the layered deposits, and the general extent of the polar “sediments” could all be explained using this model. Flow of CO₂ rather than water ice greatly reduces the problems with Martian glaciation. Nevertheless, problems do remain, in particular the large amounts of CO₂ necessary, the need to increase vapor pressure and temperature with depth in the polar deposits, and the lack of good observational evidence of flor features. Within the limits of the present knowledge of surface conditions of Mars, CO₂ glaciation appears to be a realistic alternate working hypothesis for the origin of the polar features.     

Oxidation of CO on surface hematite in high CO2 atmospheres

We propose a mechanism for the oxidation of gaseous CO into CO₂ occurring on the surface mineral hematite (Fe₂O₃(s)) in hot, CO₂-rich planetary atmospheres, such as Venus. This mechanism is likely to constitute an important source of tropospheric CO₂ on Venus and could at least partly address the CO₂ stability problem in Venus’ stratosphere, since our results suggest that atmospheric CO₂ is produced from CO oxidation via surface hematite at a rate of 0.4 petagrammes (Pg) CO₂ per (Earth) year on Venus which is about 45% of the mass loss of CO₂ via photolysis in the Venusian stratosphere. We also investigated CO oxidation via the hematite mechanism for a range of planetary scenarios and found that modern Earth and Mars are probably too cold for the mechanism to be important because the rate-limiting step, involving CO(g) reacting onto the hematite surface, proceeds much slower at lower temperatures. The mechanism may feature on extrasolar planets such as Gliese 581c or CoRoT-7b assuming they can maintain solid surface hematite which, e.g. starts to melt above about 1200 K. The mechanism may also be important for hot Hadean-type environments and for the emerging class of hot Super-Earths with planetary surface temperatures between about 600 and 900 K.     

A coupled microphysical/radiative transfer model of albedo and emissivity of planetary surfaces covered by volatile ices

A new model of albedo and emissivity of planetary surfaces covered by volatile ices in the form of porous slab-like deposits is described. In the model, a radiative transfer model is coupled with a microphysical model in order to link changes in albedo and emissivity to changes in porosity caused by ice metamorphism. Preliminary results for Triton, Pluto, and Io are presented (the martian CO₂ caps will be the subject of a separate publication). The coupled model will aid in the interpretation of ground-based and spacecraft observations and should lead to advances in surface and atmospheric modeling.     

The nature of the residual Martian polar caps

A model of the behavior of the Martian polar caps is described which incorporates the heating effects of the atmosphere, as well as insolation and conduction. This model is used to try to match the observed regression curves of the polar caps, and it predicts that all the seasonally condensed CO₂ will be lost by around the summer solstice. The implication is that the residual caps are composed of water ice which, it is found by further modeling, should be stable during the Martian summers. However, it is also argued that this model may be too simplistic, and that the effects of wind in redistributing the seasonal condensate may lead to sufficient thickness of CO₂ in the central polar region to allow the year-long existence of CO₂ without significantly changing the retreat characteristics of the cap, and it is, therefore, concluded that at the present, the nature of the residual caps cannot be reliably determined.     

Liquid water on Mars: An energy balance climate model for CO2/H2O atmospheres

Geologic evidence of the prior existence of liquid water on Mars suggests surface temperatures T_s were once considerably warmer than at present; and that such a condition may have arisen from a larger atmospheric greenhouse. Here we develop a simple climate model for a CO₂/H₂O Mars atmosphere including water vapor-longwave opacity feedback in the atmosphere and temperature-albedo feedback at surface icecaps, under the assumption that once the Martian surface pressure was p_s ≥ 1 atm CO₂. Longwave flux to space is computed as a function of T_s and p_s using band-absorption models for the effect of the 15-μm fundamental, and the 10- and 15-μm hot bands, of the CO₂ molecule; as well as the pure rotation bands and e continuum of H₂O. The derived global radiative balance predicts a global mean surface temperature of 283°K at 1 atm CO₂. When the emission model is coupled to a latitudinally resolved energy balance climate model, including the effect of poleward heat transfer by atmospheric baroclinic eddies, the solutions vary, depending on p_s. We considered two cases: (1) the present Mars (p_s ? 0.007 atm) with pressure-buffering by solid CO₂ icecaps, and limited poleward heat flux by the atmosphere; and (2) a hypothetical “hot Mars” (p_s ? 1.0 atm), whose much higher CO₂ amount augmented by H₂O evaporative feedback yields a theoretical T_s distribution with latitude admitting liquid water over 95% of the surface, water icecaps at the poles, and a diminished equator-to-pole temperature gradient relative to the present.