父亲

父亲的肩是厚厚的垫托起家庭的重担不曾有空闲父亲的臂是弯弯的镰在岁月的山坡上砍伐不曾有清闲父亲的脚是短短的尺丈量泥泞的道路不曾间断希望的伸延父亲的背是弯弯的弓搭上母亲的一支支箭竭力射向高高的蓝天父亲的眼是深深的堰盛着生活的辛酸也盛着幸福的甘甜     

一门新兴的边缘学科——风工程学

风对人类的活动有明显的影响,对于风力的利用已有上千年的历史.但对风真正的了解,却经过漫长的岁月.因为引起风变化的原因十分复杂,它是由于各种不同尺度的流体系统之间,以及由多种原因产生的力之间的非线性作用的结果.     

中纬度对流层上部的能量变化

能量在大气中是一个主要的因素,大气中一切的现象之所以能发生,都是因为大气有适当的能量的供给和变化。大气中能量的式样很多,不同式样的能力有不同的重要性,研究各种式样的能力的多寡和它的变化是很有意义的,因为大气环流     

积云参数化和分辨率对MJO数值模拟的影响

用中国科学院大气物理研究所发展的一个大气环流模式,使用不同的积云参数化方案和分辨率进行了6个模拟试验,考察了积云参数化方案和模式分辨率对热带大气季节内振荡（MJO）模拟的影响。结果显示：积云参数化方案和分辨率都会影响MJO的模拟。但积云参数化方案决定了模式对MJO模拟的基本能力,决定了模拟的MJO的基本特征。分辨率的变化并不能使模拟的MJO发生本质的改变,分辨率的作用更多的是对MJO的模拟起一定的调制作用,而这种调制作用又受到积云参数化方案的制约。在改进积云参数化方案的基础上提高模式的分辨率会在某些方面改善MJO的模拟。但是分辨率的提高需要同时提高水平分辨率和垂直分辨率,单独提高水平分辨率会降低模式模拟MJO的能力,引入更多的小尺度的高频扰动。非绝热加热垂直廓线对模式模拟MJO有重要的影响,而非绝热加热廓线很大程度上取决于所使用的积云参数化方案。模式水平分辨率的变化不会对加热廓线的结构产生明显的影响,而垂直分辨率的变化会对加热廓线的垂直结构产生一定的调制作用,进而对模拟的MJO起到调制作用。     

全球大气能量演变及其与太阳活动的关系

利用1979—2010年间的JRA-25再分析资料、太阳常数观测资料,重现了1979—2010年间的各能量的时间序列,并对整层大气、对流层大气和平流层大气这3个大气层能量的演变规律及其与太阳活动的关系进行了分析。结果表明:(1)整层大气的总能量和对流层大气的总能量,两者都存在一个显著的3.7 a的周期;而平流层大气的总能量具有一个显著的11~22 a的振荡周期;平流层大气对太阳活动的响应,与对流层大气对太阳活动的响应有所不同:平流层大气的总能量的变化略落后于太阳常数的变化,但是整层大气和对流层大气的总能量的变化均是超前于太阳常数的变化。(2)整层大气、对流层大气和平流层大气这3个层次的总能量和太阳常数分别具有显著的4~11 a的共振周期、5.5~7.3 a的共振周期和3.7~11 a的共振周期。     

东亚的秋高气爽

作者利用现有的气候资料把我国秋高气爽的天气现象的出现地区、起迄日期和形成原因作一初步的分析,同时还把中国的秋高气爽现象跟北半球其他地区如北美印第安夏季,欧洲的老妇人天气或中欧的秋老虎天气作一粗略的比较;最后,还指出我国秋高气爽天气在8月底9月初的建立和地面层冬季风的来临是同时的,而它的结束则与亚洲南部高空西风急流的建立和夏季风影响的停止是同时的.     

关于中国季风性质的几个问题

在本文里讨论了下列四个问题:1.季风的分布。用季风指数的分布明说我国东南部分是季风最强的区域,华北季风较弱,东南沿海也有一条狹窄的季风较弱的地带,这说明了季风强度的分布是很复杂的.2.季风场.在中印之间发现有一条明显的季风界线存在,季风界线的产生是与西藏高原的影响分不开的.对中国和印度季风的物理性质的差异进行了分析,并从季风观点将中国分为三个不同的气候区域.3.季风变换.季风变换和南支西风急流的形成和消失有密切关系,对它们有決定性影响的不是西藏高原的动力作用,而是亚洲大陆的热平衡条件,后者还决定了整个东亚和太平洋区域大气环流的季节性突变过程.4.季风的振动.季风的强弱经常是在变化的,利用苏联王根敢(?)的环流型对照分析,发现远东的季风的世纪变程和环流型的世纪变程基本上是相同的.     

全球二氧化碳循环的一维模式研究

本文用一个全球碳循环的一维模式重建了1860年以来的大气二氧化碳浓度。结果表明:(1) 模拟结果与冒纳罗亚（Mauna Loa）的观测结果之间存在极好的一致性；(2) 海洋虽然是人类活动释放的CO2的最重要的汇，但其作为碳汇的能力受到海洋缓冲效应的限制。海洋吸收CO2的速率还与某些响应过程密切相关；(3) 在全球碳循环中，生态系统的作用是双重的:人类活动对它的破坏使它成为CO2的源，而其对过量CO2的响应又使其成为CO2的一个汇。工业革命以来，人类对生态系统的破坏与其自身的恢复大致是同量级的；(4) 陆地生物圈缩短了整个碳循环系统对人为扰动的响应时间。     

气候变化及其脆弱性

人们对全球气候变化的关注从来没有象现在这样“热”过，气候变化问题已从一个纯科学研究的领域变成社会公众和传媒谈论的热门话题。对于人类生产生活而言，气候变化与人们脆弱性的关系是非线性的。因为人类与其生产系统只能适应一定范围内的气候状态，过与不及都是不能适应的灾害。生产的稳定性与气候的多变性决定了灾害不可避免性，但是灾害的减少却是可能的。首先要弄清气候变化的原因，才能最大限度的降低我们对气候变化的脆弱性，提高我们的适应能力，把灾害减少到最小程度。影响气候变化的因子很多，太阳活动的影响是不容忽视的，这种…     

武汉机场一次罕见大雾的机理分析

通过对2002年11月的一次大雾的机理分析,我们认为近地层充足的水汽,良好的辐射降温条件和800hPa以下的弱的辐合上升是辐射雾产生的重要原因,中低空强的逆温层和600hPa以下的弱辐散下沉作用是大雾维持的重要机制.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

Dominant cloud microphysical processes of a torrential rainfall event in Sichuan,China

High-resolution numerical simulation data of a rainstorm triggering debris flow in Sichuan Province of China simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model were used to study the dominant cloud microphysical processes of the torrential rainfall. The results showed that: (1) In the strong precipitation period, particle sizes of all hydrometeors increased, and mean-mass diameters of graupel increased the most significantly, as compared with those in the weak precipitation period; (2) The terminal velocity of raindrops was the strongest among all hydrometeors, followed by graupel’s, which was much smaller than that of raindrops. Differences between various hydrometeors’ terminal velocities in the strong precipitation period were larger than those in the weak precipitation period, which favored relative motion, collection interaction and transformation between the particles. Absolute terminal velocity values of raindrops and graupel were significantly greater than those of air upward velocity, and the stronger the precipitation was, the greater the differences between them were; (3) The orders of magnitudes of the various hydrometeors’ sources and sinks in the strong precipitation period were larger than those in the weak precipitation period, causing a difference in the intensity of precipitation. Water vapor, cloud water, raindrops, graupel and their exchange processes played a major role in the production of the torrential rainfall, and there were two main processes via which raindrops were generated: abundant water vapor condensed into cloud water and, on the one hand, accretion of cloud water by rain water formed rain water, while on the other hand, accretion of cloud water by graupel formed graupel, and then the melting of graupel formed rain water.     

淮河流域水文极值预测模型研究

为探索气候变化影响下水文极值的非平稳性和预测方法,建立了水文极值非平稳广义极值（GEV）分布的统计预测模型。利用1952-2010年淮河上游流域累计面雨量和流量年最大值资料、同期500 hPa环流特征量资料以及17个CMIP5模式对环流特征量的模拟结果,筛选出对水文极值影响显著的年平均北半球极涡强度指数作为GEV分布参数的预测因子。分析了在RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下2006-2050年淮河上游流域水文极值对气候变化的响应。结果表明,10年以下与10年以上重现期的水文极值在非平稳过程中呈现前者下降而后者上升的相反变化趋势;多模型预测的集合平均在未来情景中均呈现上升趋势,情景排放量越大增幅越大,重现期越长增幅也越大。与极值的常态相比,极值的极端态更易受气候变化影响。     

A political ecology of maladaptation: Insights from a Gramscian theory of the State

This article analyzes a political process in the aftermath of a disaster and explains why and how it led to maladaptation. Grounding Gramsci’s theory of the State on a case of post-disaster response to a fatal mudslide in the city of Sarno in Italy, this research argues that, under certain conditions, civil society and the ruling classes may coalesce to produce policies that are maladaptive. We unpack the mechanisms through which consent was reproduced in Sarno, and show how the claims of civil society were articulated and fused with the hegemonic goals of capital circulation and economic growth, reaffirming a view of government as only a provider of safety. A Gramscian treatment of the State as a process, and not as a thing, highlights that the main barrier to adaptation is not the lack of techno-managerial solutions. It is the lack of political struggle around the social reconfiguration of the logic and functions of the State.     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

中国冰冻圈变化的适应研究：进展与展望

冰冻圈变化的适应研究是冰冻圈科学领域的新兴研究方向,是当今自然科学与社会科学交叉融合跨学科集成研究的典型代表。起步于2007年的中国冰冻圈变化适应研究,经历了早期的探索,研究重点由评价脆弱性发展为量化冰冻圈变化的影响,形成以影响/风险—脆弱性—适应全链条的完善的研究体系,研究方法突破传统的指标体系赋权法的不足,初步实现了定量化,有机结合影响/风险、脆弱性、适应三方面的研究结果,使冰冻圈变化的适应措施由偏重宏观性、普适性开始转向更有针对性。未来中国冰冻圈变化的适应研究应拓展、完善和深化现有的理论体系,构建冰冻圈与社会经济耦合模型,科学量化冰冻圈全要素变化的影响,建立不同利益相关者与科学家共同参与的研究新模式,科学有效应对与适应冰冻圈变化及其影响。     

An assessment of the predictability of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet based on TIGGE data

The predictability of the position, spatial coverage and intensity of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet(EASWJ) in the summers of 2010 to 2012 was examined for ensemble prediction systems(EPSs) from four representative TIGGE centers,including the ECMWF, the NCEP, the CMA, and the JMA. Results showed that each EPS predicted all EASWJ properties well, while the levels of skill of all EPSs declined as the lead time extended. Overall, improvements from the control to the ensemble mean forecasts for predicting the EASWJ were apparent. For the deterministic forecasts of all EPSs, the prediction of the average axis was better than the prediction of the spatial coverage and intensity of the EASWJ. ECMWF performed best, with a lead of approximately 0.5–1 day in predictability over the second-best EPS for all EASWJ properties throughout the forecast range. For probabilistic forecasts, differences in skills among the different EPSs were more evident in the earlier part of the forecast for the EASWJ axis and spatial coverage, while they departed obviously throughout the forecast range for the intensity. ECMWF led JMA by about 0.5–1 day for the EASWJ axis, and by about 1–2 days for the spatial coverage and intensity at almost all lead times. The largest lead of ECMWF over the relatively worse EPSs, such as NCEP and CMA, was approximately 3–4 days for all EASWJ properties. In summary, ECMWF showed the highest level of skill for predicting the EASWJ, followed by JMA.