The dynamics of uncertainty: application to parameterization constants in climate models

Climate models, ranging from statistical-dynamical to the explicit-dynamical, contain a range of uncertainties related to the parameterization constants associated with the various forcing terms used therein. Quantifying the impacts of such uncertainties has heretofore received little attention. The impact of this aspect of the dynamics of uncertainty was revealed in a series of dynamical systems of increasing complexity. The inevitability of climate drift was discussed, with one aspect being revealed as the non-Gaussian nature of most forcing terms. For those dynamical systems which are chaotic in nature, it was shown how stochastic dynamic equations can be used to describe the uncertainty, even with uncertainty in the critical forcing terms. The possibility of climate transitions driven by stochastic forcing occurring on much faster time scales (i.e., weather disturbances) has been shown by numerous authors. The caution shown here is that even very small uncertainty in a forcing term occurring on the slow climate time scales can lead to such transitions more easily. Conversely, a deterministic parameterization on the slowly varying time scale may be just slightly incorrect in a particular model formulation and lead to the wrong climatic state. In view of such concerns, the framework for attacking the difficult nonlinear problem of uncertain parameterization constants in complex GCMs is outlined.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation     

Geometric similarity for the temperature field in the unstable atmospheric surface layer

Davenport's geometric similarity is applied to the temperature field in the unstable atmospheric surface layer for displacements in all three orthogonal directions. The decay constants for lateral displacements are over 50 times as large as for vertical displacements. Such large lateral decay constants mean that the measurement of longitudinal constants will be very difficult.Some of the assumptions inherent in geometric similarity were not satisfied. Two regimes, plume scales and larger scales, having different decay constants, were observed. The possibility of a similar scale dependency of the decay constants for the wind field is discussed.     

从紫外到中红外谱区冰的光学常数与温度关系的研究

本文简要地讨论了冰的结构及其光学特性,并应用经典的极化理论研究了冰的光学常数与频谱和温度的关系,计算了从紫外到中红外谱区、在地球大气温度范围内冰的光学常数。对计算结果的分析表明,在高空卷云的散射和辐射传输的理论计算中,温度对云中冰晶光学常数的影响必须考虑。     

A trial prediction of the values of some surface-layer turbulence constants using Schumann's method for promoting realizability

Based on a suggestion by Yamada (1986), values of the unknown constants in a particular second-order closure model are determined by applying Schumann's method (Schumann, 1977), using empirical data under neutral conditions. It is found that this closure model predicts favorably the Monin-Obukhov universal functions on both the stable and the unstable sides. It is likely that Schumann's method can be used as an expedient means of determining values of unknown model constants.     

Structure-Reactivity Based Estimation of the Rate Constants for Hydroxyl Radical Reactions with Hydrocarbons

The reaction with the OH radical constitutes the singlemost important removal process for most organiccompounds found in the atmosphere. Efforts to measurethe OH radical rate constants of all troposphericconstituents remain incomplete due to the largevariety of primary emitted compounds and theirtropospheric degradation products.Based on the measured rate constants of 250molecules with the OH radical, a structure-activityrelationship (SAR) for OH reactions has beendeveloped. The molecules used in the dataset includemost classes of tropospheric compounds (includingalkanes, alkenes, and oxygenated hydrocarbons), withthe exception of aromatic and halogen-containingcompounds. Using a new parameterization of themolecular structure, the overall agreement betweenmeasured values and those estimated using the SARdeveloped in this study is usually very good, with10% of the molecules showing deviations larger than50%. In particular, the estimated rate constants ofethers and ketones are in better agreement withexperimental data than with previous SARs (Kwok andAtkinson, Atmos. Environ. 29, 1685–1695,1995). Rate constants of organic nitrates werenot well described by the SAR used in thisstudy. The basic assumption that the additive rateconstant for a chemical group is only influenced byneighbouring functional groups did not allow a goodparameterization for the rate constants of organicnitrates. The use of a second parameter to alter thereactivity of C-H bonds in -position to thefunctional group resulted in markedly better agreementbetween calculated and measured rate constants, butwas not extended due to the limited set of data. This indicates that strong electron withdrawing groups(e.g., nitrate groups) might influence the reactivityof C-H bonds that are not directly adjacent.     

Kinetics of the Gas-Phase Reactions of OH and NO3 Radicals and O3 with the Monoterpene Reaction Products Pinonaldehyde, Caronaldehyde, and Sabinaketone

Using a relative rate method, rate constants have been measured for the gas-phase reactions of OH and NO3 radicals with pinonaldehyde, caronaldehyde and sabinaketone at 296 ± 2 K. The OH radical reaction rate constants obtained are (in units of 10–12 cm3 molecule–1 s–1): pinonaldehyde, 48 ± 8; caronaldehyde, 48 ± 8; and sabinaketone, 5.1 ± 1.4, and the NO3 radical reaction rate constants are (in units of 10–14 cm3 molecule–1 s–1): pinonaldehyde, 2.0 ± 0.9; caronaldehyde, 2.5 ± 1.1; and sabinaketone, 0.036 ± 0.023, where the error limits include the estimated overall uncertainties in the rate constants for the reference compounds. Upper limits to the O3 reaction rate constants were also obtained, of <2 × 10–20 cm3 molecule–1 s–1 for pinonaldehyde and caronaldehyde, and <5 × 10–20 cm3 molecule–1 s–1 for sabinaketone. These reaction rate constants are combined with estimated ambient tropospheric concentrations of OH radicals, NO3 radicals and O3 to calculate tropospheric lifetimes and dominant transformation process(es) of these and other monoterpene reaction products.     

Methyl halide hydrolysis rates in natural waters

International regulations are under consideration for methyl bromide because of its high time dependent ozone depletion potential. Geocycling of the species is not well understood, and removal may occur in several types of natural water incuding the oceanic and those in soils. The hydrolysis reaction is a dominant loss pathway in environmental aqueous systems, but rate constants have generally been reported only in distilled water and at greater than room temperature. Here we present measurements in sodium chloride solutions and in seawater in addition to pure water, and at temperatures across the oceanographic range. The reaction could be followed even in solutions near the freezing point because product methanol was monitored in the method of initial rates. Time constants for methyl bromide hydrolysis fall between 10 and 1000 days over the temperatures of the sea, and are always within an order of magnitude of the fastest abiotic destruction mode, chlorination. Activation energies for the two processes are similar so that the ratio of their time scales does not vary with oceanic location. Hydrolysis rate constants are also listed for the closely related compounds methyls iodide and chloride. Solvolysis of the methyl halides in natural waters acts as a source of methanol to the ocean and atmosphere.     

Velocity and Temperature Dissimilarity in the Surface Layer Uncovered by the Telegraph Approximation

We consider the Janjic (NCEP Office Note 437:61, 2001) boundary-layer model, which is one of the most widely used in numerical weather prediction models. This boundary-layer model is based on a number of length scales that are, in turn, obtained from a master length multiplied by constants. We analyze the simulation results obtained using different sets of constants with respect to measurements using sonic anemometers, and interpret these results in terms of the turbulence processes in the atmosphere and of the role played by the different length scales. The simulations are run on a virtual machine on the Chameleon cloud for low-wind-speed, unstable, and stable conditions.

     

The measurement of turbulent surface-layer fluxes by use of bichromatic scintillation

Scintillation measurements with a HeNe and a CO₂ laser were used to derive turbulent fluxes of heat and momentum in the surface layer. This was achieved by the structure constant or dissipation technique, i.e., by relating the measured structure constants and inner scales of refractive index fluctuations to structure constants of temperature fluctuations and dissipation rates of turbulent kinetic energy, respectively, and then assuming Monin-Obukhov similarity.The resulting heat fluxes agree well with measurements using the eddy correlation technique but for averaging periods of 10 min, the optical data show a much smoother and physically more plausible behaviour. The optically derived friction velocities are in good agreement with estimates derived from wind velocity and surface roughness. It was also observed that for stationary conditions, 1-min averaged optical measurements already provide good estimates for longer averaged heat and momentum fluxes.Even though some uncertainty remains about the empirical constants and Monin-Obukhov similarity expressions used, the method clearly proves to be of great value for monitoring surface-layer turbulence.     

Examination of Schumann's method of judging the realizability of turbulence closure models

Schumann's (1977) method of judging the realizability of turbulence closure models is examined. The relation between model constants obtained by this method does not always ensure the realizability of double moments. Still, this relation shows the degree of realizability. It is likely that Schumann's method is effective to determine values of unknown constants in second-order closure models.     

The Answer to the Comments by Yu. D. Resnyanskii to the Papers by L. Kh. Ingel’ and A. A. Makosko

The critical comments to the publications by the authors ofthe present paper that were given in [10] (the publications deal with the possible effects of gravity field inhomogeneities in the atmosphere and ocean) are discussed. In the authors' opinion, some remarks are groundless. At the same time, the authors agree with one of the important remarks that the results of their paper concerning studies of the ocean disturbances are to be reconsidered.     

华北汛期降水多因子相似订正方案与预报试验

本文基于动力—相似预报的基本原理, 在已初步建立的华北汛期降水模式的动态最优多因子组合相似订正方案工作基础上, 研究前期关键因子之间的相互配置对夏季降水的影响, 挑选关键的大气环流预报因子。根据预报年前期气候因子的异常状况, 通过EOF压缩自由度进行相似年选取, 进一步构建了基于前期异常信号的汛期降水相似订正预报方案。研究发现, 预报年前期大气环流中异常因子个数的偏多或偏少与该年华北降水的多寡呈现较好的对应关系, 并以异常因子的个数状况作为判断该年是否为异常年的标准, 将异常多因子方案与动态最优多因子方案相结合, 建立模式误差相似订正的多因子综合预报方案。通过诊断分析发现, 该方案对降水异常年有着较好的针对性。2003～2009年7年的独立样本回报结果表明: 该方法进一步提高了模式对华北汛期降水的预报能力, 将华北汛期降水预报的距平相关系数 (ACC) 平均分从系统订正结果的0.38提高至0.61, 具有良好的业务应用前景。     

A Recent Approach Incorporating External Forces to Predict Nonstationary Processes

Most real-world time series have some degree of nonstationarity due to external perturbations of the observed system; external driving forces are the essential reason that leads to the nonstationarity of dynamics system. In this paper, the authors present a novel technique in which the authors incorporate external forces to predict nonstationary time series. To test the effect, the authors also examined two prediction experiments with an ideal time series from a logistic map and a proxy climate dataset for the past millennium. The preliminary results show that the resulting algorithm has better predictive ability than the one that does not consider the external forces.     

木星大气探测综述

我国计划在2030年发射木星探测飞船,相关工程技术、科学目标论证的前期准备工作已经开始。为了更好地规划我国木星探测的科学目标,我们在本文系统地总结了美欧在过去几十年所进行的历次木星探测项目及其大气探测成果。到目前为止,已成功发射的有关木星的探测飞船共有9次,其中7次为飞越探测（飞船在飞越木星时顺带进行了木星的探测）,另外2次为专门探测（专门为了探测木星而发射的飞船）,分别为伽利略号和朱诺号飞船。这些飞船携带了大量的探测仪器,对木星大气的动力、物理和化学性质,磁层、电离层和内部结构等进行了综合探测。我们在本文中将主要集中在木星大气探测方面,对7次飞越探测做简要的介绍,对两次专门的探测进行详细介绍,并对一部分尚未解决的科学问题进行简单讨论。     

MICAPS卫星云图在线浏览关键技术研究

为了做好政府的公共气象服务,改善当前服务产品形式单一的局面,作者重点研究了MICAPS软件下的风云卫星云图实现在线浏览和定量分析的关键技术。首先结合ArcGIS Engine完成了该类云图向多波段栅格img格式的转换,生成了自带颜色和投影坐标的栅格云图。然后采用ArcGIS Server构建了栅格云图的网络发布平台,实现了云图在Web环境下的发布、查询和浏览,并采用GIS统计分析方法,提出并实现了云图的定量统计与分析。经测试,该平台可高效地运行于当前Web环境,完全能够适应当前带宽传输及满足主流电脑浏览和分析的需要。该平台应用到包头市公共气象服务系统中,使当地气象局在公共气象服务平台的建设方面迈进了一大步,为公众了解气象和预报员制作气象预警预报提供了一个气象信息辅助决策平台。     

热带大气运动的Rossby孤波

广东热带海洋气象研究所     

Gas phase reactions of alkyl nitrates with hydroxyl radicals under tropospheric conditions in comparison with photolysis

Rate constants for the reaction of OH radicals with some branched alkyl nitrates have been measured applying a competitive technique. Methyl nitrite photolysis in synthetic air was used as OH radical source at 295±2 K and 1000 mbar total pressure. Using a rate constant of 2.53×10^-12 cm³ s^-1 for the reaction of OH radicals with n-butane as reference, the following rate constants were obtained (units: 10^-12 cm³ s^-1): isopropyl nitrate, 0.59±0.22; isobutyl nitrate, 1.63±0.20; 3-methyl-2-butyl nitrate, 1.95±0.15; 2-methyl-1-butyl nitrate, 2.50±0.15; 3-methyl-1-butyl nitrate, 2.55±0.35. These values have been combined with the literature data to recalculate the substituent factors F(X) for the different nitrate groups which can be used to predict OH rate constants for organic nitrates for which experimental data are not available.Preliminary measurements of the photolysis frequency of isopropyl nitrate have shown that for this nitrate as a model substance, OH reactions and direct photolysis are of equal importance under tropospheric conditions.     

一个检验太阳光度计Langley定标结果可靠性的方法

准确反演气溶胶光学厚度（AOD）在气溶胶气候效应和环境效应研究中至关重要，仪器定标是目前AOD反演过程中最大的不确定性来源。Langley法作为应用最广泛的光度计定标方法，其对天气条件和大气洁净度要求苛刻，这在大气污染较重的地区难以实现，并可能导致AOD反演误差偏大。为了降低由不恰当的Langley定标所引起的AOD反演误差，本文提出一个利用辐射传输模式结合地面太阳直接辐射观测数据检验Langley定标结果合理性的方法，并利用西安2013年6月至2015年12月多滤波旋转遮光带辐射计（MFRSR）和直接辐射表（NIP）观测资料，探讨了方法的可行性。结果表明，该方法能够将Langley定标结果限定在较小的波动范围内，有效降低由定标不确定性引起的AOD反演误差，有助于提高单站点AOD观测精度。     

Who participates in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and why: A quantitative assessment of the national representation of authors in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

This paper presents a quantitative analysis of international representation in the activities of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change using expert authorship counts by country in each of the four IPCC assessment reports (1990, 1995, 2001 and 2007). Overall, we find that 45% of countries, all Non-Annex 1, have never had authors participate in the IPCC process; on the other hand, European and North American experts are make up more than 75% of all authors (N = 4394). Generalized linear models using negative binomial regression were used to quantitatively estimate the effect of a number of socio-economic, environmental and procedural factors influencing country-level participation in the IPCC. Per capita gross domestic product, population, English-speaking status, and levels of tertiary education were all found to be statistically significant drivers of authorship counts. In particular, participation by authors from English-speaking Non-Annex 1 countries is 2.5 times greater than those that are non-English speaking. Regionally small island nations of Oceania were the most severely under-represented group. South American and Asian countries had fewer authors, and African countries had more authors than what might be expected on the basis of demographic and socio-economic data. These differences across nations partly reflect existing scientific capacity that will be slow to change. However, the on-going under-representation of developing country scientists in the IPCC, particularly in the assessment of climate science (WGI) and climate mitigation (WGIII) warrants greater efforts to close the capacity gap.     

Notes and correspondence

Abstract

This paper is an expansion of the lectures presented by the authors at the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) summer school, 25–29 August 1997. It attempts to fulfill several goals as did the curriculum for the summer school. Firstly, it has a large tutorial component allowing newcomers a rapid introduction to the field, secondly it surveys the field of stratospheric chemistry, and thirdly it attempts to bring the reader to the forefront of some of the problem areas in stratospheric chemistry. As such, it includes much background information such as the magnitude of rate coefficients, photolysis rates and their calculation and time constants. The intended audience is individuals about to commence study or research in the field of atmospheric chemistry or established atmospheric scientists in other areas wishing to expand their knowledge of this topic.

The basic chemistry of the ozone layer is described with an emphasis on the catalytic cycles and the equilibria between “reservoir” and “active” species. To this end, a compendium of the important aspects of heterogeneous chemistry is also provided. The application of box (0‐dimensional) and more elaborate (1‐, 2‐ and 3‐dimensional) models to compare and validate with measurements is discussed. Also, factors affecting the present and future trends in ozone concentration, both at mid‐latitudes and in the polar region, are presented.