Analysis of the quasi-biennial variability of carbon monoxide total column

On the basis of satellite observations of column carbon monoxide (CO) and total ozone (TO), an analysis has been performed of the connection of the interannual variability of CO with the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the equatorial stratospheric wind and the QBO of total ozone. It is found that the CO total colomn over most of the globe in the westerly phase of the QBO is greater than that in the easterly phase. The global distribution of the CO QBO amplitudes exhibits a local maximum over Indonesia, where the peak-to-peak amplitude of the CO QBO signal averages 15% of the local annual mean CO in this region. Analysis shows that the QBOs of CO are well synchronized with the QBO of wind at 50 hPa. At the same time, a joint analysis of the characteristics of the CO QBO and TO QBO demonstrates no direct photochemical coupling between of the quasi-biennial variations of TO and CO.     

Manifestation of the Arctic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the tropical stratosphere

Characteristics of the Arctic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation effects manifested on interannual scales in the equatorial stratosphere are determined. Wavelet analysis of local phase shifts, coherence, and correlation is used to obtain correlation portraits of the largest factors of climate variability against the background of coherent variations in the equatorial stratospheric wind speed at the 50- and 15-hPa pressure levels. It is shown that the Arctic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation signals may reach the tropical stratosphere. The signals are easily identified in a wide range of scales, including quasi-biennial, 3-to 5-year, and 10-to 11-year periods. The results obtained reflect a coherent pattern of the manifestation of these signals at the selected stratospheric levels. It is found that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation effect at periods close to 10–11 years reaches the stratospheric level rather rapidly, in the same or next month, while the effects of the Arctic Oscillation index are delayed by nine months. The estimates obtained show that a phase shift of almost 180° in the Arctic Oscillation index relative to the equatorial stratospheric wind occurred in almost all of the range of interannual periods in 1978 and 1992. For the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, an increase in local correlations on a scale of 3-to 5-year variations was observed in 1980–1990, a 180° phase shift occurred in 1992, and the correlation with stratospheric wind increased in 1992–2004. The estimates obtained are indicative of a change in the atmospheric circulation pattern that took place in the Northern Hemisphere in 1978–1991.     

Seasonal features of quasi-biennial variations of NO<Subscript>2</Subscript> stratospheric content derived from ground-based measurements

Seasonal and latitudinal distributions of amplitudes of quasi-biennial variations in total NO₂ content (NO₂ TC), total ozone content (TOC), and stratospheric temperature are obtained. NO₂ TC data from ground-based spectrometric measurements within the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC), TOC data from satellite measurements, and stratospheric temperature data from ERA-Interim reanalysis are used for the analysis. The differences in the NO₂ TC diurnal cycles are identified between the westerly and easterly phases of the quasi-biennial oscillations (QBO) of equatorial stratospheric wind. The QBO effects in the NO₂ TC, TOC, and stratospheric temperature in the Northern (NH) and Southern (SH) hemispheres are most significant in the winter–spring periods, with essential differences between the NH and SH. The NO₂ TC in the Antarctic is less for the westerly phase of the QBO than that for the easterly phase, and the NO₂ TC quasi-biennial variations in the SH mid-latitudes are opposite of the variations in the Antarctic. In the NH, the winter values of the NO₂ TC are generally less during the westerly QBO phase than during the easterly phase, whereas in spring, on the contrary, the values for the westerly QBO phase exceed those for the easterly phase. Along with NO₂, the features of the quasi-biennial variations of TOC and stratospheric temperature are discussed. Possible mechanisms of the quasi-biennial variations of the analyzed parameters are considered for the different latitudinal zones.     

Effects of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation in the total ozone content over Russia

On the basis of ground-based measurements of total ozone content (TOC) over Russia and a number of neighboring states during 1973–2002, the amplitudes and phases of TOC variations caused by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of wind in the equatorial stratosphere are estimated for different regions and for the whole area. The seasonal dependence of the QBO effect in the TOC is analyzed. It is shown that the magnitude and even the sign of the effect depend on the relation between the equatorial QBO phase and the season. The regional empirical models of seasonally dependent QBO effects are constructed. It is found that the seasonal dependence of regional effects accounts for 4% (in the north of the area) to 20% (in the south) of the interannual variability of the TOC. The relation between the QBO effect and the 11-year cycle of solar activity is analyzed. Significant differences are revealed in the effects under the conditions of maximum and minimum solar activity. The QBO effects obtained from observations at Russian stations, satellite measurements with a TOMS instrument, and spectrometric observations of the TOC at western European stations are compared, and their satisfactory agreement is shown. An analysis of the results suggests that the QBO effects in the TOC over Russia are caused by several interacting factors and apparently reflect their regional properties.     

Sudden stratospheric warmings: statistical characteristics and influence on NO<Subscript>2</Subscript> and O<Subscript>3</Subscript> total contents

Statistical characteristics of major and minor sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) for 1958–2015 are analyzed using data of NCEP-NCAR, ERA 40, and ERA-Interim reanalyses. Dependencies of the number of major SSWs with the displacement of the circumpolar stratospheric vortex and the number of minor SSWs on the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the equatorial stratospheric wind and on the level of solar activity (SA) in the 11-year solar cycle have been revealed. Major SSWs accompanied by a displacement of the polar vortex occur more often at a high level of SA and at the easterly phase of the QBO in the 50–40 hPa layer, while minor SSWs occur more often at a low SA level and at the westerly phase of the QBO. An analysis of spatiotemporal dynamics of the stratospheric polar vortex at major SSWs is performed. The most probable directions of vortex displacement caused by SSWs have been revealed. Influences of the major SSWs on the total contents of NO₂ and ozone, as well as on stratosphere temperature, are analyzed.     

Analysis of the influence that climatic variability has on the formation of the total-ozone-content field at extratropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere

Having applied the method of discriminant analysis to the TOMS data of satellite sounding of the total ozone content (TOC) in the March months of 1979–2008, the authors could make a new estimate of the TOC field variability in the Northern Hemisphere and interlongitudinal regularities of its changes under the action of climatic variability. The effects of temperature variations in the polar stratosphere, El Niño, and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) have proven comparable and reach 80 DU in some regions. The influence of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) reaches 40 DU. The regions of TOC variations and their location and dimensions change depending on the phases of QBO, AO, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Three regions of increased TOC—over Europe, Eastern Siberia, and the Pacific Ocean—are formed in years with a warm stratosphere. A compensating TOC decrease takes place in the tropics and over Greenland. In the years of El Niño and the easterly QBO phase, the TOC increases over Europe and drops over the central Pacific, as well as to the south from 45° N. The AO controls the ozone growth over most of Eurasia at temperate latitudes and its weak drop over the Atlantic. It was impossible to obtain such quantitative estimates with the use of methods based on an independent analysis of the TOC series at individual points of the coordinate grid. Testing with the Monte Carlo method confirmed that the results obtained are significant with a probability of 95–99.9%.     

Quasi-biennial oscillation of wind in the low-latitude stratosphere and the winter wave activity of the atmosphere in the Northern Hemisphere

According to the Holton-Tan hypothesis [1], oscillations of the equatorial stratospheric wind change the conditions of the vertical and meridional propagation of planetary waves in extratropical regions, which can cause quasi-biennial oscillations (QBOs) at middle and polar latitudes. To verify the Holton-Tan hypothesis, the intensity of the winter wave activity of the atmosphere in the Northern Hemisphere was estimated at different phases of the quasi-biennial oscillation of the equatorial stratospheric zonal wind. As it turned out, a higher level of the wave activity expected at the easterly phase of the equatorial QBO is characteristic only of the period when the winter circulation is established. At the end of winter a higher level of the wave activity is observed at the westerly QBO phase, which contradicts the Holton-Tan hypothesis. Small but nevertheless noticeable distinctions in the wave activity at low tropospheric levels suggest that the quasi-biennial periodicity of the wave activity at middle latitudes can be caused by oscillations of synoptic processes between the predominantly zonal and meridional forms of the circulation, as was indicated by Pogosyan and Pavlovskaya [2, 3].     

Simulation of the quasi-biennial oscillations of the zonal wind in the equatorial stratosphere: Part I. Low-parameter models

The paper focuses on the simulation of the quasi-biennial oscillations (QBOs) of zonal velocity in the equatorial stratosphere. Low-parameter models are used to examine two mechanisms for excitation of the QBO: one through the interaction of planetary waves with the mean flow at critical levels and another through gravity-wave obliteration. The possible use of each of these mechanisms for generating the QBO is shown, the ranges of parameter values where this generation is possible are determined, and the dependences of the period and amplitude of the limit cycle on the model parameters are analyzed. A relative role of waves of different scales in the formation of the period of the oscillations of zonal wind is studied with a coupled model combining both mechanisms. The conditions that are required to reproduce the QBO in general circulation models are discussed.     

On the influence of the 11-year cycle of solar activity on quasi-biennial variations in ozone and temperature in the Canadian sector of the arctic

An analysis of the high-latitude ozone balloon sounding data derived from Canadian stations shows that, in the maximum of the 11-year cycle of solar activity (SA), the ozone content in the lower stratosphere is higher than in the SA minimum and, in the SA maximum, the lower stratosphere is warmer and the troposphere is colder than in the SA minimum. The ozone and temperature responses to the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the opposite phases of the 11-year cycle of SA show substantial differences: in the SA maximum, the QBO effects in the ozone and temperature cover a wider range of heights, the maxima of the effects manifest themselves at 5–10 km higher, and their amplitudes exceed the amplitudes of the effects in the SA minimum. The results indicate that the QBO is one of the “conductors” of the influence of the 11-year SA cycle in the Canadian sector of the Arctic.     

Simulation of the quasi-biennial oscillations of the zonal wind in the equatorial stratosphere: Part II. Atmospheric general circulation models

The problem of simulating quasi-biennial oscillations (QBOs) of zonal velocity in the equatorial stratosphere in atmospheric general circulation models is considered. In accordance with the results from Part I of this study on the basis of the models developed at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS), the possibility of implementing (in these models) mechanisms of QBO excitation through both the interaction of planetary waves with the mean flow and breaking of short gravity waves is investigated. A new high-resolution 2° × 2.5° × 80 version of the INM RAS model is designed, a climate simulation with the two 2° × 2.5° × 39 and 2° × 2.5° × 80 versions of the INM RAS model is briefly described, results of spectral analysis of equatorial wave activity are presented, and the QBO formation processes in these models are considered in detail. For the new 2° × 2.5° × 80 model, realistic QBOs of zonal wind are obtained as the result of the action of both mechanisms.     

Study of the mutual influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation processes and the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations

On the basis of the nonlinear techniques for the estimation of coupling between oscillatory systems from time series, we investigate the dynamics of climatic modes characterizing global and Northern Hemisphere (NH) processes. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation indices and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices are analyzed in terms of the most reliable data from 1950 through 2004 and earlier data since the 19th century. These indices characterize changes in NH atmospheric pressure (specifically, sea-level pressure in the North Atlantic and NH extratropical latitudes as a whole) and in equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature and sea-level pressure to which the strongest variations of global surface temperature and global climate on interannual time scales and of regional climatic anomalies in the NH are linked. The methods used are based on phase-dynamics modeling and nonlinear prediction models (a nonlinear version of Granger causality). From both methods and various ENSO indices, the inference about the ENSO effect on the NAO during the latter half of the 20th century and in the early 21st century is made with confidence probability of at least 0.95. The influence is characterized by a time delay of about two years. No inverse influence is found with a similar degree of reliability. Results of estimating the coupling between the ENSO and the NAO depend on the type of index that is used to describe the NAO. The ENSO effect on the NAO is detected with sufficient confidence when the NAO index is chosen to be a larger scale characteristic. However, when a more local index of the NAO is used, no statistically significant coupling to the ENSO is found. Increasing the length of the analyzed ENSO and NAO series (over more than 100 yr) does not lead to any more reliable detection of coupling. Analysis of the data for different time intervals during 1950–2004 has revealed a strengthening of the ENSO effect on the NAO, although this inference is not reliable.     

Influence of long-term regional and large-scale atmospheric circulation on the Baltic sea level

The connection between variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and the Baltic sea level has been investigated for the period 1825–1997. The association between the NAO and the strength of the zonal geostrophic wind stress over the Northwest Atlantic suggests an NAO impact on Baltic sea level variations, because the monthly mean sea level mainly is determined by externally driven variations caused by wind conditions over the North Sea. Several period bands were found to have high correlation between oscillations in the winter (JFM) NAO index and the Baltic Sea winter mean sea level. The correlation was, however, higher in the 20th century than in the 19th. During the last two decades, the correlation between the NAO index and the sea level has been exceptionally high. The winter mean of a regional atmospheric circulation index had a correlation with the Kattegat winter mean sea level of 0.93. With the Baltic sea level the correlation was 0.91, compared with the NAO index correlation for the same period of 0.74. The regional index also showed a high correlation with the mean summer and mean autumn sea levels, when the corresponding seasonal NAO indices showed a weak connection. The temporal variation of the connection with the NAO index implies a regional atmospheric circulation occasionally differing from the large-scale circulation associated with the NAO. Seasonal means of the sea level in Stockholm do, however, reflect the regional wind climate to a large extent, and the Baltic sea level is a useful proxy for identifications of climatic dependencies in the region.     

Spectral characteristics of quasi-biennial oscillations of the equatorial stratospheric wind and the problem of synchronization

Spectral characteristics of the quasi-biennial oscillations (QBO) of the zonal velocity in the equatorial stratosphere are investigated in this work on the basis of data from the NCEP/NCAR and ERA40 reanalyses and numerical experiments with the atmospheric general circulation (GCM) model developed at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS). The problem of synchronizing QBO and semiannual oscillations (SAO) of the zonal velocity in the mesosphere is considered. It is shown that the process of synchronization to multiples of SAO periods is identifiable in the transition region between QBO and SAO. For all heights where QBO exist, their synchronization with SAO is expressed in the calculation of the period in terms of differences between the westerly maxima. The INM RAS GCM model is shown to satisfactorily reproduce the main spectral characteristics of QBO and SAO, as well as specific features of the variability of the QBO period obtained from reanalysis data. The possibility of synchronization with SAO or the annual cycle in the upper layers is shown on the basis of an investigation of QBO models with a small number of parameters, both for the absorption mechanism of planetary waves by the mean flow and for the breaking of short gravity waves. The QBO formation from different wave types, together with SAO and the annual cycle, can be considered a unified system of oscillations in the circulation of the equatorial upper atmosphere.     

北太平洋涛动和东亚冬季风对ENSO影响差异分析

北太平洋涛动(NPO)和东亚冬季风(EAWM)二者是热带外重要的气候系统,不仅对我国甚至对整个东亚气候都有重要影响,对厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)的影响也越发受到关注.本研究利用HadISST海温资料以及美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)月平均气象场再分析资料,采用相关回归等统计方法分析研究了冬季NPO和EAWM对次年...     

热带西太平洋大气气候基本态与厄尔尼诺期间赤道附近西风异常

利用合成分析的方法分析了自1961年以来观测到的8次厄尔尼诺事件中赤道西太平洋地区西风异常与大气气候基本态的关系,结果发现厄尔尼诺年赤道西太平洋地区西风异常具有和大气气候基本态相一致的季节变化特征.利用一个简单热带海-气耦合模式较好地模拟出了观测到的厄尔尼诺年赤道西太平洋地区西风异常的变化特征.对模式结果的分析表明,大气气候基本态对厄尔尼诺年赤道西太平洋地区西风异常的形成起重要作用,它是通过影响大气模式中的加热场来影响赤道西太平洋地区西风异常.大气模式中赤道太平洋地区的加热场的形成具有阶段性和地区性,在厄尔尼诺事件的初始阶段,大气气候基本态是大气模式中的加热场形成的主要因子,而在厄尔尼诺事件的发展和成熟阶段,赤道中东太平洋地区的海表温度异常(SSTA)是加热场形成的主要因子.模式模拟结果对大气气候基本态依赖的敏感性试验说明,在大气模式加热场中含有大气气候基本态的模拟中,沿中西太平洋赤道附近的纬向风异常表现出和观测类似的传播特征.     

ENSO variability and the eastern tropical Pacific: A review

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) encompasses variability in both the eastern and western tropical Pacific. During the warm phase of ENSO, the eastern tropical Pacific is characterized by equatorial positive sea surface temperature (SST) and negative sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies, while the western tropical Pacific is marked by off-equatorial negative SST and positive SLP anomalies. Corresponding to this distribution are equatorial westerly wind anomalies in the central Pacific and equatorial easterly wind anomalies in the far western Pacific. Occurrence of ENSO has been explained as either a self-sustained, naturally oscillatory mode of the coupled ocean–atmosphere system or a stable mode triggered by stochastic forcing. Whatever the case, ENSO involves the positive ocean–atmosphere feedback hypothesized by Bjerknes. After an El Niño reaches its mature phase, negative feedbacks are required to terminate growth of the mature El Niño anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific. Four requisite negative feedbacks have been proposed: reflected Kelvin waves at the ocean western boundary, a discharge process due to Sverdrup transport, western Pacific wind-forced Kelvin waves, and anomalous zonal advections. These negative feedbacks may work together for terminating El Niño, with their relative importance being time-dependent.ENSO variability is most pronounced along the equator and the coast of Ecuador and Peru. However, the eastern tropical Pacific also includes a warm pool north of the equator where important variability occurs. Seasonally, ocean advection seems to play an important role for SST variations of the eastern Pacific warm pool. Interannual variability in the eastern Pacific warm pool may be largely due to a direct oceanic connection with the ENSO variability at the equator. Variations in temperature, stratification, insolation, and productivity associated with ENSO have implications for phytoplankton productivity and for fish, birds, and other organisms in the region. Long-term changes in ENSO variability may be occurring and are briefly discussed. This paper is part of a comprehensive review of the oceanography of the eastern tropical Pacific.     

Estimates of the mutual influence of variations in the sea surface temperature in tropical latitudes of the Pacific,Atlantic, and Indian Oceans from long-period data series

Based on the concept of the Wiener&–Granger causality, a seasonal trivariate analysis of directional couplings between sea surface temperature variations in tropical latitudes of the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans has been performed. These variations are related to significant modes of regional and global climatic variability. We have analyzed time series of monthly indices of Pacific Ocean processes of the El Ni&ño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), equatorial Atlantic mode (EAM), and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)&—along with its western and eastern poles for the period of 1870&–2015. A scheme of interactions between the processes under study where coupling strength estimates are presented, along with estimates of the season of its maximal value and the coupling coefficient sign, has been developed. We have found the seasonal influences of ENSO on the western and eastern poles of IOD, the eastern pole of IOD on ENSO, EAM on ENSO, and IOD on EAM to be the most significant couplings.     

Spatial and temporal structure of Tropical Pacific interannual variability in 20th century coupled simulations

Tropical Pacific interannual variability is examined in nine state-of-the-art coupled climate models, and compared with observations and ocean analyses data sets, the primary focus being on the spatial structure and spectral characteristics of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The spatial patterns of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from the coupled models are characterized by maximum variations displaced from the coast of South America, and generally extending too far west with respect to observations. Thermocline variability is characterized by dominant modes that are qualitatively similar in all the models, and consistent with the “recharge oscillator” paradigm for ENSO. The meridional scale of the thermocline depth anomalies is generally narrower than observed, a result that can be related to the pattern of zonal wind stress perturbations in the central-western equatorial Pacific. The wind stress response to eastern equatorial Pacific SST anomalies in the models is narrower and displaced further west than observed. The meridional scale of the wind stress can affect the amount of warm water involved in the recharge/discharge of the equatorial thermocline, while the longitudinal location of the wind stress anomalies can influence the advection of the mean zonal temperature gradient by the anomalous zonal currents, a process that may favor the growth and longer duration of ENSO events when the wind stress perturbations are displaced eastwards. Thus, both discrepancies of the wind stress anomaly patterns in the coupled models with respect to observations (narrow meridional extent, and westward displacement along the equator) may be responsible for the ENSO timescale being shorter in the models than in observations. The examination of the leading advective processes in the SST tendency equation indicates that vertical advection of temperature anomalies tends to favor ENSO growth in all the CGCMs, but at a smaller rate than in observations. In some models it can also promote a phase transition. Longer periods tend to be associated with thermocline and advective feedbacks that are in phase with the SST anomalies, while advective tendencies that lead the SST anomalies by a quarter cycle favor ENSO transitions, thus leading to a shorter period.     

Effects of interannual salinity variability on the dynamic height in the western equatorial Pacific as diagnosed by Argo

In this paper, interannual variations of the ocean dynamic height over the tropical Pacific are diagnosed using three-dimensional temperature and salinity fields from Argo profiles, with a focus on the...     

Numerical simulation of wave interactions during sudden stratospheric warming

Parameterizations of normal atmospheric modes (NAMs) and orographic gravity waves (OGWs) are implemented into the mechanistic general circulation model of the middle and upper atmosphere (MUA). Numerical experiments of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events are performed for climatological conditions typical for January and February using meteorological reanalysis data from the UK MET Office in the MUA model averaged over the years 1992–2011 with the easterly phase of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The simulation shows that an increase in the OGW amplitudes occurs at altitudes higher than 30 km in the Northern Hemisphere after SSW. The OGW amplitudes have maximums at altitudes of about 50 km over the North American and European mountain systems before and during SSW, as well as over the Himalayas after SSW. At high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, significant (up to 50–70%) variations in the amplitudes of stationary planetary waves (SPWs) are observed during and after the SSW. Westward travelling NAMs have local amplitude maximums not only in the Northern Hemisphere, but also in the Southern Hemisphere, where there are waveguides for the propagation of these modes. Calculated variations of SPW and NAM amplitudes correspond to changes in the mean temperature and wind fields, as well as the Eliassen-Palm flux and atmospheric refractive index for the planetary waves, during SSW. Including OGW thermal and dynamical effects leads to an increase in amplitude (by 30–70%) of almost all SPWs before and during SSW and to a decrease (up to 20–100%) after the SSW at middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.