Long-term summer temperature reconstruction inferred from tree-ring records from the Eastern Carpathians

The first 1,000 year long Carpathian tree-ring width chronology was established based on living and subfossil stone pine (Pinus cembra L.) samples from an upper timberline forest located in Calimani Mts. (Romania). Tree-ring data were standardized using the regional curve standardization method in order to preserve the low and medium frequency climate signals. The de-trended index strongly correlates with summer mean temperature both at annual and decadal scales. The Calimani summer mean temperature anomalies were reconstructed for the period ad 1163-2005 applying the rescaling method. This new climate proxy from the Carpathians shows similar fluctuations to other North Hemispheric temperature reconstructions, but with periods of distinct differences. The fingerprint of Little Ice Age in the Calimani area is visible between ad 1370 and 1630 followed by lagged cold decades in ad 1820 and 1840. The recent warming is evident only after the 1980s in our reconstruction.     

Early summer temperature reconstruction in the eastern Tibetan plateau since ad 1440 using tree-ring width of Sabina tibetica

Long climate records are scarce on the Tibetan Plateau for understanding the climate variability on long-term context. Here we presented an early summer (May?CJune) temperature reconstruction since ad 1440 for Qamdo area using tree rings of Sabina tibetica. The reconstruction accounted for 64% of the variance in the instrumental record. It showed warm periods during 1501?C1514, 1528?C1538, 1598?C1609, 1624?C1636, 1650?C1668, 1695?C1705, 1752?C1762, 1794?C1804, 1878?C1890, 1909?C1921, 1938?C1949, and 1979?C1991. Cool early summer occurred during 1440?C1454, 1482?C1500, 1515?C1527, 1576?C1597, 1610?C1621, 1669?C1679, 1706?C1716, 1782?C1793, 1863?C1873, 1894?C1908, and 1922?C1937. Comparison with other proxy or meteorological records suggested that there is obvious spatial variability in the May?CJune temperature variations along the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau.     

Multiproxy summer and winter surface air temperature field reconstructions for southern South America covering the past centuries

We statistically reconstruct austral summer (winter) surface air temperature fields back to ad 900 (1706) using 22 (20) annually resolved predictors from natural and human archives from southern South America (SSA). This represents the first regional-scale climate field reconstruction for parts of the Southern Hemisphere at this high temporal resolution. We apply three different reconstruction techniques: multivariate principal component regression, composite plus scaling, and regularized expectation maximization. There is generally good agreement between the results of the three methods on interannual and decadal timescales. The field reconstructions allow us to describe differences and similarities in the temperature evolution of different sub-regions of SSA. The reconstructed SSA mean summer temperatures between 900 and 1350 are mostly above the 1901?C1995 climatology. After 1350, we reconstruct a sharp transition to colder conditions, which last until approximately 1700. The summers in the eighteenth century are relatively warm with a subsequent cold relapse peaking around 1850. In the twentieth century, summer temperatures reach conditions similar to earlier warm periods. The winter temperatures in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries were mostly below the twentieth century average. The uncertainties of our reconstructions are generally largest in the eastern lowlands of SSA, where the coverage with proxy data is poorest. Verifications with independent summer temperature proxies and instrumental measurements suggest that the interannual and multi-decadal variations of SSA temperatures are well captured by our reconstructions. This new dataset can be used for data/model comparison and data assimilation as well as for detection and attribution studies at sub-continental scales.     

Secular trends in high northern latitude temperature reconstructions based on tree rings

Boreal tree-ring records from high latitude North America, Scandinavia and Russia provide baseline data reflecting long-term trends in Arctic annual temperature. Reconstructions from 1682–1968 indicate the latter part and termination of the Little Ice Age and that the northern regions are now warmer by comparison. The resulting high-resolution, extended temperature time series allows examination of underlying causes of climatic change not possible using only the instrumental record. The recent recorded data for the Arctic show recovery from the cooling in the 1950's–1960's. The overall evaluation confirms that the high northern latitudes are now in an anomalously warm state relative to the past three centuries.     

Comparison of instrumental and interpolated meteorological data-based summer temperature reconstructions on Mt. Taibai in the Qinling Mountains,northwestern China

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Previous dendroclimatical studies have been based on the relationship between tree growth and instrumental climate data recorded at lower land meteorological...     

贵州夏季最高气温变率的时空分布特征

选取贵州19个代表站点47 a夏季日最高气温月平均及季平均资料,采用EOF分解方法对贵州夏季最高气温的变化进行分析,结果表明:前两个模态的累积方差贡献在82%~89.7%,特征值对应特征向量和时间系数能够较好地反映时空分布特征,第一特征向量代表的空间分布显示:全省变化趋势一致,东北部变化较西南部大,北部、东北部变率变化较南部西南部大;相应地时间系数变化幅度大,都有2~4 a的周期振荡;从第二特征向量代表的空间分布可知:各时段呈现出不一样的变化趋势,时间系数的值也普遍较第一特征向量小,突变不明显。     

Reconstructed Northern Hemisphere annual temperature since 1671 based on high-latitude tree-ring data from North America

Annual Northern Hemisphere surface temperature departures for the past 300 yr were reconstructed using eleven tree-ring chronologies from high-latitude, boreal sites in Canada and Alaska, spanning over 90 degrees of longitude. This geographic coverage is believed to be adequate for a useful representation of hemispheric-scale temperature trends, as high northern latitudes are particularly sensitive to climatic change. We also present a reconstruction of Arctic annual temperatures. The reconstructions show a partial amelioration of the Little Ice Age after the early 1700's, an abrupt, severe renewal of cold in the early 1800's and a prolonged wanning since approximately 1840. These trends are supported by other proxy data. Similarities and differences between our Northern Hemisphere reconstruction and other large-scale proxy temperature records depend on such factors as the data sources, methods, and degree of spatial representation. Analyses of additional temperature records, as they become available, are needed to determine the degree to which each series represents fluctuations for the entire hemisphere. There appear to be relationships between trends observed in our Northern Hemisphere reconstruction and certain climatic forcing functions, including solar fluctuations, volcanic activity and atmospheric CO₂. In particular, our reconstruction supports the hypothesis that the global warming trend over the past century of increasing atmospheric CO₂ has exceeded the recent level of natural variability of the climate system.Of Columbia University Department of Geological Sciences.     

1961-2000年辽宁夏季高温气候变化特征

根据1961—2000年辽宁22个代表站夏季高温资料,采用小波分析等统计方法和天气学方法,分析了辽宁夏季高温的年际变化、年代际变化及周期特征。结果表明:辽宁夏季高温出现地域特征明显,年际变化较大,具有12-15 a周期变化。利用NCEP资料得出,夏季高温日数出现异常多、少年的同期500 hPa环流形势具有明显不同。     

Long-term patterns of solar irradiance forcing in model experiments and proxy based surface temperature reconstructions

Comparisons are made of long-term empirical and model-estimated patterns of solar irradiance forcing during a 200-year period (1650-1850), which precedes any apparent anthropogenic influence on climate. This interval encompasses a considerable range (approximately 4 W/m²) of estimated variation in solar output, including the "Maunder" and "Dalton" Minima of solar irradiance, and an intervening interval of relatively high values of irradiance, but does not encroach into the industrial era wherein it is difficult to separate solar and anthropogenic influences. Particular emphasis is placed on comparing empirical and modeled patterns of forced surface temperature variation. The empirical patterns bear a greater similarity to the pattern of forced response of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (AOGCM) than with an independent model simulation result using an ocean with specified heat transport, both in terms of the spatial pattern of response and implied global mean sensitivity to forcing. Heightened sensitivity in the western Pacific warm pool apparent in the empirical response pattern, is not observed in the forced response of the coupled model. It is possible that this pattern is the result of feedback processes not currently reproduced in course-resolution coupled models. The greatest empirical response is found at the multidecadal-to-century (> 40 year period) time scale, for which the forcing is dominated by the roughly 90-year Gleissberg Cycle of irradiance. This indicates a global-mean sensitivity (approximately 0.3 K/W/m²), which is close to the coupled model result (approximately 0.4 K/W/m²). At decadal time scales (8-25 year period), for which the forcing is dominated by the 11-year and 22-year period solar cycles), the temperature sensitivity is moderately reduced, and its spatial pattern of response is dominated by an apparent resonance with known decadal modes of climate variability.     

北京中心商务区夏季近地面气温时空分布特征

利用2012年6-8月31个自动观测站点气温资料,分析了北京中心商务区（CBD）夏季近地面气温时空分布特征及影响因子,并将CBD地区夏季气温监测数据与朝阳区气象站同期地面气温进行比较分析。结果表明：下垫面类型和人为热排放等差异是直接影响城市中心商务区近地面气温空间分布的主要原因。人口密集区、高层建筑与柏油路面集中区成为夏季月平均气温高值中心,较绿地覆盖区域的低值中心偏高约1.0 ℃;夜间人类活动及车辆使用造成的人为热排放是导致夜间城市地面气温空间差异的主要原因,而白天气温空间差异相对减小。CBD地区与朝阳站平均温差存在较明显的周内和日内变化韵律,且白天和夜间二者温差基本都为正值,但夜间的差值更加明显,即CBD地区平均气温一般高于朝阳站,表现出明显的附加城市热岛效应,而且这种附加城市热岛效应具有同城市热岛强度相近的日内变化规律。进一步分析表明,不同天气条件下CBD区域的附加城市热岛强度表现出显著差异,晴好微风少云天气情况下,附加城市热岛效应更明显,主要表现在夜间;阴天、高湿天气条件下,附加城市热岛效应在白天和夜间均较弱;降水天气条件下附加城市热岛效应日夜差异最小,说明日照和太阳辐射在引起附加城市热岛效应方面起着重要作用。不同天气条件下CBD地区内部的附加城市热岛效应空间分布基本一致。     

我国夏季气温、降水场的时空特征分析

本文用主分量及转动主分量分析方法对我国夏季气温及降水量场(1951—1985年期间)的时空特征进行了研究。从所提取的空间模式中发现气温的解释方差较降水的大,且具有较好的均匀性;从对应的时间分量分析发现气温与降水均具有2—3年的主要变化周期,与东亚大气环流的关系分析中以气温表现较为密切。 对气温和降水场时空特征的稳定性分析表明,无论在持续性、周期性及与东亚大气环流的关系上,进入70年代后均有较明显的变化。比较表明气温场的稳定性较降水为好。 气温场与降水场相互关系分析发现它们有显著的反相关,表现显著的地区为长江中下游、华南及华北等。     

Long-term summer temperature variations in the Pyrenees

Two hundred and sixty one newly measured tree-ring width and density series from living and dry-dead conifers from two timberline sites in the Spanish Pyrenees were compiled. Application of the regional curve standardization method for tree-ring detrending allowed the preservation of inter-annual to multi-centennial scale variability. The new density record correlates at 0.53 (0.68 in the higher frequency domain) with May–September maximum temperatures over the 1944–2005 period. Reconstructed warmth in the fourteenth to fifteenth and twentieth century is separated by a prolonged cooling from ∼1450 to 1850. Six of the ten warmest decades fall into the twentieth century, whereas the remaining four are reconstructed for the 1360–1440 interval. Comparison with novel density-based summer temperature reconstructions from the Swiss Alps and northern Sweden indicates decadal to longer-term similarity between the Pyrenees and Alps, but disagreement with northern Sweden. Spatial field correlations with instrumental data support the regional differentiation of the proxy records. While twentieth century warmth is evident in the Alps and Pyrenees, recent temperatures in Scandinavia are relatively cold in comparison to earlier warmth centered around medieval times, ∼1450, and the late eighteenth century. While coldest summers in the Alps and Pyrenees were in-phase with the Maunder and Dalton solar minima, lowest temperatures in Scandinavia occurred later at the onset of the twentieth century. However, fairly cold summers at the end of the fifteenth century, between ∼1600–1700, and ∼1820 were synchronized over Europe, and larger areas of the Northern Hemisphere.     

用AutoCAD分析成都市夏季地面风场特征

建立成都市夏季风流场不同监测点风向、风速数据库和风矢量数据库,采用Wendlell反平方内插法,在AutoCAD上绘制测试区域风矢量图,并与成都市地图叠加,分析夏季地面风场的特征,认为当地面风速处于1.5～2.0m/s时,市区容易形成风的辐合切变,其发生频率为90%;小风时,市区出现风辐合切变的频率为11.8%;当地面风速≥2.0 m/s时,市区几乎不出现风的辐合和切变.     

用AutoCAD分析成都市夏季地面风场特征

建立成都市夏季风流场不同监测点风向、风速数据库和风矢量数据库，采用Wendlell反平方内插法，在AutoCAD上绘制测试区域风矢量图，并与成都市地图叠加，分析夏季地面风场的特征。认为当地面风速处于1．5～2．0m／s时，市区容易形成风的辐合切变，其发生频率为90％；小风时，市区出现风辐合切变的频率为11.8％；当地面风速≥2.0m／s时，市区几乎不出现风的辐合和切变。     

中低纬太平洋夏季次表层海温异常年代际变化的时空特征比较

对1955—1998年的夏季次表层(0~400 m)海温进行了EOF分解,对比分析了中低纬太平洋夏季次表层海温的年代际变化特征。结果表明:中纬太平洋夏季次表层海温有2种年代际分布模态:0~160 m表现为PDO型,200~400 m表现为全区一致型;低纬太平洋夏季次表层海温有3种年代际分布模态:0~60 m和300~400 m为全区一致型,80~240 m为东西反向型。太平洋夏季次表层海温异常的年代际变化在中低纬都存在从上而下的时间滞后;而同一层中低纬太平洋夏季次表层海温年代际突变的时间也不一致。     

基于CART算法的夏季高温预测模型构建与应用

以夏季高温有效积温的多年平均值作为判断夏季高温炎热程度的标准,借助CART算法探究东亚夏季风指数,夏季印缅槽,夏季北大西洋涛动(NAO),赤道太平洋海温等多项气候因子与高温的关系,得到高温预测规则集,建立高温的预测模型。研究中选取1955—2012年福建漳州夏季的日最高气温等站点气温资料,通过计算58 a的夏季高温有效积温数值来判定夏季的炎热程度。将同一时期的多项气候因子数据作为输入变量输入,算法会随机选出其中46 a的数据得到10条分类规则集,建立的预测模型准确率达到91. 49%。用剩下的12 a数据进行检验,准确率达到91. 67%。研究结果较好地验证了高温预测模型的可行性和有效性,为灾害性天气模型的研究提供了新思路。     

Advances towards improved low-frequency tree-ring reconstructions, using an updated Pinus sylvestris L. MXD network from the Scandinavian Mountains

The dendrochronological use of the parameter maximum density (MXD) in Pinus Sylvestris L., at high latitudes, has provided valuable insights into past summer temperature variations. Few long MXD chronologies, from climatically coherent regions, exist today, with the exception being in northern Europe. Five, 500-year-long, Fennoscandian, MXD chronologies were compared with regard to their common variability and climate sensitivity. They were used to test Signal-free standardization techniques, to improve inferences of low-frequency temperature variations. Climate analysis showed that, in accordance with previous studies on MXD in Fennoscandia, the summer temperature signal is robust (R ²?>?50 %) and reliable over this climatically coherent region. A combination of Individual standardization and regional curve standardization is recommended to refine long-term variability from these MXD chronologies and relieve problems arising from low replication and standardization end-effects.     

基于土壤湿度和年际增量方法的中国夏季气温预测试验

本文利用中国160站月平均气温资料和欧洲中心ERA-Interim逐月再分析表层土壤湿度资料,通过相关分析选取欧亚大陆9个关键区的土壤湿度年际增量作为预测因子,采用变形的典型相关分析(BP-CCA)结合集合典型相关分析(ECC)的方法建立集合预测模型,对我国东部夏季气温年际增量进行预测,进而预测夏季气温。其中,1980—2004年的资料用于历史拟合试验,而2005—2014年的资料用于独立样本预测试验。首先利用BP-CCA方法对9个因子分别建立单因子预测模型,然后采用ECC方法对9个预测因子按照不同的组合方式建立集合预测模型,并且分析预测技巧。结果表明,不同预测因子的组合对我国夏季气温的预测能力不同:勒拿河下游地区、中国黄河以南地区、叶尼塞河下游地区、西西伯利亚平原地区以及印度半岛西北部地区的土壤湿度对华北夏季气温预测效果较好;中国黄河以南地区、叶尼塞河下游地区、印度半岛西北部地区、贝加尔湖东北地区以及贝加尔湖以西地区的土壤湿度对江淮夏季气温有较高预测技巧。所建立的两组集合预测模型均显示了较好的实际预测能力:华北气温预测模型预测气温距平的同号率为8/10,平均均方根误差为3.4%;江淮气温预测模型预测气温距平的同号率为7/10,平均均方根误差为2.7%。并且两组模型预测出的华北和江淮气温的预测评分(PS)均超过80分,而国际上通用的距平相关系数(ACC)均在0.3以上。这说明土壤湿度因子中包含对我国夏季气温有用的预测信号,可以考虑将土壤湿度应用于夏季气温预测业务中。