Correlation of seismic activity and fumarole temperature at the Mt. Merapi volcano (Indonesia) in 2000

In this paper we present densely sampled fumarole temperature data, recorded continuously at a high-temperature fumarole of Mt. Merapi volcano (Indonesia). These temperature time series are correlated with continuous records of rainfall and seismic waveform data collected at the Indonesian–German multi-parameter monitoring network. The correlation analysis of fumarole temperature and precipitation data shows a clear influence of tropical rain events on fumarole temperature. In addition, there is some evidence that rainfall may influence seismicity rates, indicating interaction of meteoric water with the volcanic system. Knowledge about such interactions is important, as lava dome instabilities caused by heavy-precipitation events may result in pyroclastic flows. Apart from the strong external influences on fumarole temperature and seismicity rate, which may conceal smaller signals caused by volcanic degassing processes, the analysis of fumarole temperature and seismic data indicates a statistically significant correlation between a certain type of seismic activity and an increase in fumarole temperature. This certain type of seismic activity consists of a seismic cluster of several high-frequency transients and an ultra-long-period signal (<0.002 Hz), which are best observed using a broadband seismometer deployed at a distance of 600 m from the active lava dome. The corresponding change in fumarole temperature starts a few minutes after the ultra-long-period signal and simultaneously with the high-frequency seismic cluster. The change in fumarole temperature, an increase of 5 °C on average, resembles a smoothed step. Fifty-four occurrences of simultaneous high-frequency seismic cluster, ultra-long period signal and increase of fumarole temperature have been identified in the data set from August 2000 to January 2001. The observed signals appear to correspond to degassing processes in the summit region of Mt. Merapi.     

Three Decades of Seismic Activity at Mt. Vesuvius: 1972–2000

We analyse the seismic catalogue of the local earthquakes which occurred at Somma-Vesuvius volcano in the past three decades (1972–2000). The seismicity in this period can be described as composed of a background level, characterised by a low and rather uniform rate of energy release and by sporadic periods of increased seismic activity. Such relatively intense seismicity periods are characterised by energy rates and magnitudes progressively increasing in the critical periods. The analysis of the b value in the whole period evidences a well-defined pattern, with values of b progressively decreasing, from about 1.8 at the beginning of the considered period, to about 1.0 at present. This steady variation indicates an increasing dynamics in the volcanic system. Within this general trend it is possible to identify a substructure in the time sequence of the seismic events, formed by the alternating episodes of quiescence and activity. The analysis of the source moment tensor of the largest earthquakes shows that the processes at the seismic source are generally not consistent with simple double-couples, but that they are compatible with isotropic components, mostly indicating volumetric expansion. These components are shown to be statistically significant for most of the analysed events. Such focal mechanisms can be interpreted as the effect of explosion phenomena, possibly related to volatile exsolution from the crystallising magma. The availability of a reduced amount of high quality data necessary for the inversion of the source moment tensor, the still limited period of systematic observation of Vesuvius micro-earthquakes and, above all, the absence of eruptive events during such interval of time, cannot obviously permit the outlining of any formal premonitory signal. Nevertheless, the analysis reported in this paper indicates a progressively evolving dynamics, characterised by a generally increasing trend in the seismic activity in the volcanic system and by a significant volumetric component of recent major events, thus posing serious concern for a future evolution towards eruptive activity.     

Correlation between rainfall and dust occurrence at mildura,Australia: The difference between local and source area rainfalls

In studies of temporal variation in dust activity, rainfall recorded at the same location as the dust events (local rainfall) has commonly been used as a climatic control variable. The main objectives of this note are to test the validity of using local rainfall and to determine the improvement in the relationship between rainfall and dust activity that could be achieved by using regional rainfall in the dust source area. For the period 1960-1989 at Mildura, Australia, the likely dust source area was identified by analysing wind direction during dust events. It was found that a marked improvement in the correlation between dust activity and antecedent rainfall can be achieved by using the regional source area rainfall rather than local rainfall. The improved correlation suggests that widespread drought is more important than local below-average rainfall in intensifying dust activity.     

2002年夏季长白山天池火山区的地震活动研究

2002年6月以来,长白山天池火山区的地震活动明显增加. 本文利用2002年夏季布设在长白山天池火山区15套宽频带流动地震台站的记录资料,对天池火山区的地震活动进行了研究. 地震观测结果表明,2002年夏季长白山天池火山日平均地震发生频次超过30次. 地震主要位于长白山天池西南部和东北部两个区域,震源深度较浅,离地表的深度一般小于5km. 天池西南部和东北部的地震,b值存在较大的差异. 火山区地震记录的频谱分析和时频分析结果表明,这些地震主要为火山构造型地震. HSZ和DZD等台站地震记录中丰富的低频成分,可能与台站附近的局部介质或断层带有关. 我们认为2002年夏季频繁发生的地震和小震震群活动是由火山深部活动诱发的局部断裂活动引起.     

The implications of regional variations in rainfall for reconstructing rainfall patterns using tree rings

In Australia, multidecadal periods of floods and droughts have major economic consequences. Due to the short duration of Australian instrumental precipitation records, it is difficult to determine the patterns of these multidecadal periods. Proxy records can be used to create long‐term rainfall reconstructions for regions that are lacking instrumental data. However, the spatial extent over which single‐site proxy records can be applied is poorly understood. Southeast Queensland (SEQ) is an area where tree rings can be used to reconstruct long‐term rainfall patterns, but their regional representation is unknown. In this study, the spatial variability in rainfall across SEQ is investigated from 1908 to 2007 using 140 instrumental rainfall stations. Pearson correlation analysis between stations is used to create groups at the r = 0.80, 0.85, and 0.90 correlation levels, and then annual deviations from the mean are determined. These patterns indicate that rainfall is not uniform across SEQ but can be broken into 2 main spatially consistent groups. Each of these groups is broken down into several subgroups with higher correlation levels. Long‐term streamflow records are found to be correlated to rainfall patterns local to the streamflow stations, indicating that analysis of extreme events should consider spatial precipitation variability. Finally, the only currently available proxy rainfall reconstruction for the region, a 140‐year Toona ciliata tree ring width record from Lamington National Park, is compared to rainfall groups at different correlation levels across all of SEQ. The correlation between the reconstruction and the rainfall station groupings is best for the groups within which the tree‐ring record is spatially located, and this correlation improves as rainfall group correlation increases. Correlation is nearly nonexistent for groupings located at a distance from the tree‐ring site. These results demonstrate the importance of assessing the spatial variability of precipitation so that the spatial applicability of proxy records can be assessed.     

Analysis of seismic patterns observed at Nevado del Ruiz volcano, Colombia during August – September 1985

The seismic activity of the Nevado del Ruiz volcano was monitored during August–September 1985 using a three-component portable seismograph station placed on the upper part of the volcano. The objective was to investigate the frequency content of the seismic signals and the possible sources of the volcanic tremor. The seismicity showed a wide spectrum of signals, especially at the beginning of September. Some relevant patterns from the collected records, which have been analyzed by spectrum analysis, are presented. For the purpose of analysis, the records have been divided into several categories such as long-period events, tremor, cyclic tremor episodes, and strong seismic activity on September 8, 1985.The origin of the seismic signals must be considered in relation to the dynamical and acoustical properties of fluids and the shape and dimensions of the volcano's conduits.The main results of the present experiment and analysis show that the sources of the seismic signals are within the volcanic edifice. The signal characteristics indicate that the sources lie in fluid-phase interactions rather than in brittle fracturing of solid components.     

A double seismic antenna experiment at teide Volcano: existence of local seismicity and lack of evidences of Volcanic tremor

Data analyzed in the present work correspond to a 40 days field experiment carried out in Teide Volcano (Canary Islands, Spain) with two short-period small-aperture dense seismic antennas in 1994. The objective of this experiment was to detect, analyze and locate the local seismicity. We analyzed also the background seismic noise to investigate the possible presence of volcanic tremor. From a set of 76 events, we selected 21 of them in base of their good signal-to-noise ratio and their possibility to locate their seismic source by using the seismic antennas. A visual classification based on the S–P time and seismogram shape has permitted to establish three groups of events: local seismicity (S–P time between 3 and 5 s), very local earthquakes (S–P time smaller than 3 s) and artificial explosions. These earthquakes have been located by applying the Zero Lag Cross-Correlation technique and the inverse ray-tracing procedure. Those earthquakes that were recorded simultaneously by both seismic antennas were also located by intersecting both back-azimuths. The analysis of the seismicity has revealed that the amount of seismicity in Teide Volcano is moderate. This seismicity could be distributed in three main areas: inside the Caldera Edifice (below the Teide–Pico Viejo complex), in the eastern border of the Caldera Edifice and offshore of the island. At present, this activity is the only indicator of the volcano dynamics. The analysis of the back-ground seismic noise has revealed that at frequencies lower than 2 Hz, the Oceanic Load signal is predominant over other signals, even over local earthquakes with a magnitude of 2.0. Due to this, although if in the Teide area were present a weak volcanic tremor, or other volcanic signals with predominant peaks below 2 Hz, to observe them would be a very difficult task.     

Explosion quakes at Stromboli (Italy)

This paper reports the results of two seismic experiments aimed at determining the wave field of explosion quakes at Stromboli Island (Mediterranean Sea, Southern Italy). The typical Strombolian activity mostly consists of explosive phenomena causing pyroclastic, materials to be emitted together with jets of volcanic gases from one or more craters. Stromboli is an active volcano characterized by persistent seismic activity consisting of explosion quakes that are seismic events associated with the explosive volcanic phenomena. Explosion quakes are short lived seismic events occurring intermittently whose amplitude tends to decrease with distance from the vent. A distinctive feature of explosion quakes is the presence on seismograms of two, often clearly distinct, seismic phases. The first, low-frequency seismic phase (<2 Hz) is in fact usually followed by a high-frequency seismic phase (>3–4 Hz) after one second or more. The first seismic phase of explosion quakes has been shown to be characterized by a nearly radial linear polarization and by an apparent propagation velocity estimated at 600–800 m/s. The second phase is characterized by a more chaotic motion and a lower apparent propagation velocity of 150–450 m/s. The wavefield associated with the first low-frequency seismic phase appears to be generated by a resonating P-wave seismic source accompanying gas explosion and emission of pyroclastic materials. The wavefield associated with the second high-frequency seismic phase of explosion quakes appears to be mainly composed of scattered and converted waves due to the critical topography of the volcano.     

Meteorological monitoring of an active volcano: Implications for eruption prediction

Rainfall data collected on and around the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat between 1998 and 2003 were analysed to assess the impact on primary volcanic activity, defined here as pyroclastic flows, dome collapses, and explosions. Fifteen such rainfall-triggered events were identified. If greater than 20 mm of rain fell on a particular day, the probability of a dome collapse occurring on that day increased by a factor of 6.3% to 9.2%, compared to a randomly chosen day. Similarly, the probability of observing pyroclastic flows and explosions on a day with > 20 mm of rainfall increased by factors of 2.6 and 5.4, respectively. These statistically significant links increased as the rainfall threshold was increased. Seventy percent of these rainfall-induced dome collapse episodes occurred on the same calendar day (most within a few hours) as the onset of intense rainfall, but an extra 3 occurred one or two calendar days later. The state of the volcano was important, with the rainfall–volcanic activity link being strongest during periods of unstable dome growth and weakest during periods of no dome growth or after a recent major collapse.Over 50% of the heavy rain days were associated with large-scale weather systems that can potentially be forecast up to a few days ahead. However, the remaining heavy rain days were associated with small-scale, essentially unpredictable weather systems. There was significant variability in the amount of rainfall recorded by different rain gauges, reflecting topographic variations around the volcano but also the inherent small-scale variability within an individual weather system. Hence, any monitoring/warning program is recommended to use a network, rather than just a single gauge. The seasonal cycle in rainfall was pronounced, with nearly all the heavy rain days occurring in the May–December wet season. Hence, the dome was at its most vulnerable at the beginning of the wet season after a period of uninterrupted growth. Interannual variability in rainfall was related to tropical Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies, and holds out the prospect of some limited skill in volcanic hazard forecasts at even longer lead times.     

New insight into the factors leading to the 1998 flank collapse and lahar disaster at Casita volcano,Nicaragua

During unusually high rainfall associated with Hurricane Mitch in 1998, a flank collapse leading to a disastrous lahar occurred at Casita volcano, Nicaragua. The lack of a similar failure during a rainfall event of comparable magnitude in 1982 (Tropical Storm Alleta) suggests that additional factors influenced the 1998 collapse. We have investigated the potential contribution of erosional flank undercutting, seismic activity and anthropogenic land-cover change at the collapse site. Except for seismic events prior to Mitch, which may have increased flank instability, none of these factors appears significant. Instead, for failure to occur, the following conditions were required: (1) highly fractured slope material allowing deep and rapid infiltration of meteoric water, (2) a less permeable underlying layer to obstruct drainage, (3) strong, continuous antecedent rainfall to build up high pore-water pressure, and (4) episodic, high-intensity precipitation during Mitch to generate recurrent pressure waves. Prerequisite (1) was provided by edifice-wide deformation towards the south-east, seismic activity and proximity to a prominent fault, and local subsidence. Condition (2) was met by clay-rich layers resulting from hydrothermal alteration. More than 1,900 mm of rain fell in the 6 months prior to Mitch without significant interruption, while intense episodic precipitation occurred during the hurricane, satisfying conditions (3) and (4), respectively. The main difference with Alleta was that it occurred at the beginning of the rainy season and, therefore, without sufficient antecedent rainfall. Anthropogenic activity, including land-cover change, did not affect slope stability (i.e. the hazard). However, vulnerability was generated when two towns were established in the lowlands south of Casita, on top of previous lahar deposits. It was greatly increased when approximately 4 km of forest between the collapse site and the towns were cleared, paving the way for a largely unobstructed debris flow. Deforestation also facilitated erosion along the flanks to provide about 78% of the material contained in the lahar when it destroyed the towns, killing more than 2,500 people.     

Analysis of swarms of high-frequency seismic events at Nevado del Ruiz volcano, Colombia (January 1986–August 1987): Development of a procedure

The determination of signal properties like frequency, amplitude, “signature” of the sequence of arrivals of P- and S-phases and the subsequent computation of hypocenter parameters, are the steps of a procedure in the analysis of swarms of high-frequency seismic events from Nevado del Ruiz volcano, which could be useful in other volcanic areas. The use of this procedure on Ruiz data led to the determination of various seismic source volumes, which together with hypocenters of non-swarmed events and the identification of geological features such as faults which cross the area, alignment of domes and volcanic edifices, and the record of low-frequency seismic events not centered in the area of the active vent, suggest the existence of a magma chamber of a rather complex geometry. This hypothesis would suggest that magma, emplaced in zones of weakness (faults) that affect the area, may act as the source of seismic activity. This demands a revision of the methodology used in the deformation measurements, and in the analysis of released energy and event occurrence too. The relations between hypocenters (sources), location and relative energy of the swarms, as well as the general volcanic activity (tremor, ash and gas emission, deformation) could turn out to be a possible means to assist in the identification of premonitory activity and thus be relevant to the process of monitoring and forecasting.     

2002年8月20日长白山天池火山小震震群研究

2002年7～9月，采用15台宽频带流动地震仪在长白山天池火山区进行了近3个月的地震观测，记录到大量发生在天池火山附近的地震和多次小震群。对2002年8月20日的小震群进行了分析，结果表明这些地震发生在长白山天池内的西南部，震源深度距离天池水面一般小于4km深，震群的震中位置呈北西向线性分布。地震记录的频谱分析表明，该震群为典型的火山构造类型地震。在观测中发现HSZ和DZD台的地震记录低频成份丰富，这可能与台站附近的局部介质变化或低速的断层带有关。我们认为震群可能是由火山深部活动诱发的局部断裂活动所引起。     

Thermal anomalies in fumaroles at Vulcano island (Italy) and their relationship with seismic activity

Fumarole thermal monitoring is a useful tool in the evaluation of volcanic activity, since temperatures strongly relate to the upward flux of magmatic volatiles. Once depurated from meteorological noise, their variations can reflect permeability changes due to crustal stress dynamics eventually associated to seismic activity. In this work, we discuss a fumarole temperature record acquired in the period September 2009–May 2012 at Vulcano island (Italy), during which changes of volcanic state, local seismic activity and teleseisms occurred. Apart from positive thermal anomalies driven by increments in volcanic activity, we observed 3 episodes at least of concurrence between tectonic earthquakes and fumarole temperature increments, with particular reference to the local August 16th, 2010 Lipari earthquake, the March 11th, 2011 Sendai–Honshu (Japan) earthquake and a seismic swarm occurred along the Tindari-Letojanni fault in July–August 2011. We interpreted the seismic-related anomalies as “crustal fluid transients”, i.e. signals of volcanogenic vapour flow variations induced by stress-induced permeability changes. From this perspective fumarolic activity can be considered as a tracer of geodynamic instability but, since seismic and volcanic phenomena are in mutual cause-effect relationships, a multidisciplinary observation system is mandatory for correctly addressing thermal data interpretation.     

Possible interaction between tectonic events and seismic noise at Las Cañadas Volcanic Caldera,Tenerife, Spain

Continuous seismic noise is recorded in the volcanic island of Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain). The origin of this noise, strongly augmented by anthropogenic contamination, is still under debate. In this paper, we discuss the relationship between this noise and the occurrence of local tectonic events in the same area. In particular, transitions are sought in the time evolution of dynamic parameters computed on the seismic noise, and examples are shown where abrupt transitions may be associated with the occurrence of tectonic events. These transitions provide further evidence of the existence of a natural origin for at least part of the seismic noise, which is strongly contaminated—if not dominated—by anthropogenic sources.     

Space-time distribution of small earthquakes at Phlegraean Fields,south-central Italy

A preliminary statistical analysis of the space-time distribution of small seismic events in the volcanic area of Phlegraean Fields, south-central Italy, was done on the basis of a catalogue of earthquakes recorded by the local seismic stations in the period January 1, December 31, 1983.The non-random character of the sequence has been tested by matching the observed time-dstribution of seismic events with the theoretical Poisson process.A clustered occurrence of seismic events seems to be the main cause of the departure from a Poisson process as the inter-arrival times distribution clearly shows.Furthermore, the non-random behaviour of the events space-time distribution mainly due to quiescient and clustered recursive seismic phases could be studied by using the method proposed byVon Seggern et al. (1981). The analysis and the space-time diagrams confirm the swarm-type character of the entire seismic sequence.     

Present-day seismicity of the south-eastern Elbe Fault System (NE Bohemian Massif)

The Variscan Bohemian Massif is disrupted by the NW-SE striking Elbe Fault System in its northern part. The increased tectonic activity associated with this structure is manifested by increased seismicity in the eastern part of the Sudetes. With the use of a temporary local seismic network, the total number of micro-earthquakes located in this region increased to 153 for the period 1996–2003. The local magnitudes vary between −0.6 and 1.8 and the seismic energy was often released in swarm-like sequences. Five seismic events with well-defined P-onset polarities at five or six stations enabled the estimation of focal mechanisms. The present-day activity of the WNW-ESE to NNW-SSE fault systems is discussed on the basis of source mechanisms, the alignment of the epicentres, as well as morphological and geological evidence. The majority of the recent seismic activity is concentrated in a 40–60 km wide zone of a generally NW-SE trend. This structure represents a regional zone of weakness within the SE termination of the Elbe Fault System, defined by a mesh of interconnected faults, of which many are deep-seated and highly permeable and some are associated with light to moderate historical earthquakes. Both in the areas due south and due north of this zone the present-day seismic activity is very low. The increased tectonic activity can be interpreted as a result of the abundance of suitably oriented faults and their interconnection into major fault systems, the proximity of the Outer Carpathian indentor and the Cainozoic volcanic and associated recent post-volcanic activity. The similar character of swarms and their coincidence with the post-volcanic activity in the southeastern part of the Elbe Fault System and in some focal zones of the western Bohemian seismically active area suggests that overpressurized fluids may represent a potential swarm-triggering mechanism.     

A summary of volcanic and seismic activity in Katmai National Monument,Alaska

A compilation of observations of volcanic eruptions since 1870 and ash stratigraphy shows that Katmai National Monument on the Alaska Peninsula has had a long history of volcanic activity. Six of the recently active vents lie in a gently curved arc, but two lie to the north of this arc and show no obvious structural relationship to it. Recent volcanic events have consisted of fumarolic activity, steaming from main vents, ash eruptions, extrusion of viscous lava flows, and pyroclastic eruptions. The observed activity shows no obvious correlation with a compilation of seismic events recorded teleseismically since 1912 and relocated by the authors using a digital computer. The eruption attributed to Mt. Katmai in 1912 has left many unanswered questions including the thickness of the ash flow tuff in the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes. Seismic refraction results show that this tuff has a compressional velocity of about 0.6 km/sec and that considerable morainal debris may underlie it at the northern end of the Valley.     

Multiple ruptures for Long Valley microearthquakes: a link to volcanic tremor?

Despite several episodes of ground deformation and intense seismic activity starting in 1978, the Long Valley, California, volcanic area has not produced clearly recognized volcanic tremor. Instead, a variety of atypical microearthquakes have been recorded during these episodes, including events dominated by low-frequency (long-period) or mixed high and low-frequency (hybrid) signals. During a 1997 episode, a number of unusual microearthquakes occurred within a temporary 40-station seismic network surrounding the Casa Diablo area, allowing the events to be precisely located and analyzed as a function of azimuth, offset, and source characteristics. Eight prime examples lie within two, 7 km-deep clusters of seismicity separated by about 1 km, with four events in each cluster. Empirical Green's function deconvolution shows that these events are composed of two to three sub-events, the sub-events consisting of ordinary (single rupture, double-couple) microearthquakes. The delay times between the sub-events are constant within each cluster, equaling 0.092 s in one and 0.06 s in the other. Events from other clusters show similar delays. The signal interference produced by the closely spaced sub-events gives rise to modulated, delay-dependent source spectra. The regularity of the delays suggests that the sub-events are being triggered by a fixed length and/or time scale process, an example being the length/inflation rate of a magmatic or hydrothermal flow structure. With continued action of the triggering process, the sub-events could proliferate and evolve into observable volcanic tremors at Mammoth.     

Real-time Seismic Amplitude Measurement (RSAM): a volcano monitoring and prediction tool

Seismicity is one of the most commonly monitored phenomena used to determine the state of a volcano and for the prediction of volcanic eruptions. Although several real-time earthquake-detection and data acquisition systems exist, few continuously measure seismic amplitude in circumstances where individual events are difficult to recognize or where volcanic tremor is prevalent. Analog seismic records provide a quick visual overview of activity; however, continuous rapid quantitative analysis to define the intensity of seismic activity for the purpose of predicing volcanic eruptions is not always possible because of clipping that results from the limited dynamic range of analog recorders. At the Cascades Volcano Observatory, an inexpensive 8-bit analog-to-digital system controlled by a laptop computer is used to provide 1-min average-amplitude information from eight telemetered seismic stations. The absolute voltage level for each station is digitized, averaged, and appended in near real-time to a data file on a multiuser computer system. Raw realtime seismic amplitude measurement (RSAM) data or transformed RSAM data are then plotted on a common time base with other available volcano-monitoring information such as tilt. Changes in earthquake activity associated with dome-building episodes, weather, and instrumental difficulties are recognized as distinct patterns in the RSAM data set. RSAM data for domebuilding episodes gradually develop into exponential increases that terminate just before the time of magma extrusion. Mount St. Helens crater earthquakes show up as isolated spikes on amplitude plots for crater seismic stations but seldom for more distant stations. Weather-related noise shows up as low-level, long-term disturbances on all seismic stations, regardless of distance from the volcano. Implemented in mid-1985, the RSAM system has proved valuable in providing up-to-date information on seismic activity for three Mount St. Helens eruptive episodes from 1985 to 1986 (May 1985, May 1986, and October 1986). Tiltmeter data, the only other telemetered geophysical information that was available for the three dome-building episodes, is compared to RSAM data to show that the increase in RSAM data was related to the transport of magma to the surface. Thus, if tiltmeter data is not available, RSAM data can be used to predict future magmatic eruptions at Mount St. Helens. We also recognize the limitations of RSAm data. Two examples of RSAM data associated with phreatic or shallow phreatomagmatic explosions were not preceded by the same increases in RSAM data or changes in tilt associated with the three dome-building eruptions.     

Seismic patterns and fluid-dynamic features preceding and accompanying the January 15, 1990 eruptive paroxysm on Mt. Etna (Italy)

On the basis of data collected during a seismological investigation carried out on Mt. Etna (Italy) during a phase of the volcanic activity marked by progressive transition from Strombolian bursts to effusive paroxysms at the SE crater (January 1990), three types of seismic regime have been recognized. They are interpreted to be linked to modifications in the regimes of volcanic gases and vapours within the upper levels of the magma column, as suggested by recent studies on the dynamics of magmatic fluids. Our analysis also reveals that the use of usual seismic parameters, such as the temporal patterns associated with the occurrence of discrete low-frequency events (“spindles”) and the coefficient m of the Ishimoto-Iida law, can furnish information about variations in the behaviour of the system before the irreversible evolution of the volcanic activity toward eruptive paroxysms.