Forecast of storm surge by means of artificial neural network

This study describes the construction and verification of a model of sea level changes during a storm surge, applying artificial neural network (ANN) methodology in hydrological forecasting in a tideless sea where the variation of water level is only wind generated. Some neural networks were tested to create the forecast model. The results of ANN were compared with observed sea-level values, and with the forecasts calculated by different routine methods. The results of verification show that the neural network methodology could be successfully applied in the routine, operational forecast service.     

Long-term changes in summer phytoplankton communities of the open northern Baltic Sea

Changes in the biomass and species composition of phytoplankton may reflect major shifts in environmental conditions. We investigated relationships between the late summer biomass of different phytoplankton taxa and environmental factors, and their long-term (1979–2003) trends in two areas of the Baltic Sea, the northern Baltic proper (NBP) and the Gulf of Finland (GF), with statistical analyses. An increasing trend was found in late summer temperature and chlorophyll a of the surface water layer (0–10 m) in both areas. There was also a significant decrease in summer salinity and an increase in winter dissolved inorganic nitrogen to phosphorus (DIN:DIP) ratio in the NBP, as well as increases in winter DIN concentrations and DIN:SiO₄ ratio in the GF. Simultaneously, the biomass of chrysophytes and chlorophytes increased in both areas. In the NBP, also the biomass of dinophytes increased and that of euglenophytes decreased, whereas in the GF, cyanobacteria increased and cryptophytes decreased. Redundancy analysis (RDA) indicated that summer temperature and winter DIN concentration were the most important factors with respect to changes in the phytoplankton community structure. Thus, the phytoplankton communities seem to reflect both hydrographic changes and the ongoing eutrophication process in the northern Baltic Sea.     

Geoid Validation on the Baltic Sea Using Ship-borne GNSS Data

Abstract

We studied geoid validation using ship-borne global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) on the Baltic Sea. We obtained geoid heights by combining GNSS–inertial measurement unit observations, tide gauge data, and a physical sea model. We used two different geoid models available for the area. The ship route was divided into lines and the lines were processed separately. The GNSS results were reduced to the sea surface using attitude and draft parameters available from the vessel during the campaign. For these lines, the residual errors between ellipsoidal height versus geoid height and absolute dynamic topography varied between 0 and 15?cm, grand mean being 2?cm. The mean standard deviations of the original time series were approximately 11?cm and reduced to below 5?cm for the time series filtered with 10?min moving average. We showed that it is possible to recover geoid heights from the GNSS observations at sea and validate existing geoid models in a well-controlled area.     

Using Mean Sea Surface Topography for Determination of Height System Differences across the Baltic Sea

The mean sea surface topography in the Baltic Sea and adjacent waters is reliably known in the Nordic height system NH 60. Using this knowledge we estimate differences between NH 60, based on the Amsterdam zero point, and Russian, Polish, and German height systems along the southeastern coast of the Baltic Sea, based on the Kronstadt zero point. The differences agree within a few centimeters. We also make a simple study of the mean sea level difference between Kronstadt and Amsterdam (which is found to have been approximately 25 cm when sea level was still to be seen there).     

A note on the economics of Swedish Baltic Sea fisheries

The cod stocks in the Baltic Sea are important not only for fisheries but for the entire ecosystem utilized by numerous stakeholders around the coast. All such activities have economic values. In this note the economics of the Swedish Baltic Sea cod fishery is estimated in relation to the sector's interaction with other users of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. The results show a negative resource rent for the fishery, € −5 million without public expenses (subsidies and administrative costs), and € −13 million including public expenses. The interactions between the fisheries and tourism, seal population, carbon dioxide emissions, recreational fishing, and discards are discussed, and when monetary estimates are available these are related to the estimated resource rent.     

The Baltic Sea environment and the European Union: Analysis of governance barriers

The EU enlargement brought the Baltic Sea into the sphere of EU environmental policymaking, making the sea, with the exception of Russia, an EU inland sea. Yet, the state of the Baltic Sea environment is deteriorating at an alarming pace. This paper describes the evolution of the EU governance of the Baltic Sea environment, focussing on governance barriers. The findings demonstrate how the choice of analytical lens influences the construction of governance barriers and the respective intervention strategies. Such understanding can help policy practitioners in their search for successful measures to improve the governance situation in the Baltic Sea region.     

Genotoxic impacts in Klaip da Marine port and B ting oil terminal areas (Baltic Sea)

Genotoxic effects were evaluated in the somatic and gonadal cells of bivalve and gastropod molluscs inhabiting different sites of Klaip da port area in Lithuania. The occurrence of aneuploidy and polyploidy of cells, meiotic injures, centromere dissociation and fragmented polyploid nuclei as cytogenetic indicators of environmental stressors was assessed in snails Lymnaea ovata . The highest level of environmental genotoxicity (in 43.2 and 46.2% of studied cells) was observed in the tissues of snails inhabiting Malk Bay in 1995 and 1996. Dredging and thus removal of contaminated sediments from Malk Bay resulted in significant decrease (up to 27.2% in 1999) of cytogenetic injures in molluscs studied over the period from 1997 to 1999. However, the frequency of cytogenetic disturbances in molluscs from Vilhelmo Channel was increasing (1.8 times) from 1995 to 1999. Therefore, the ecological safety of the biggest drinking water supply for Klaip da population became questionable. Assessment of cytogenetic damage in Mytilus edulis (MN test) and the crustacean, Balanus improvisus, (aneugenic effects) inhabiting the Baltic Sea at B ting oil terminal has shown the highest genotoxicity level in the zone of sewage effluents from Palanga town and Ma eikiai oil refinery plant. Extensive cytogenetic injuries in gonadal cells indicated the potential long-term hazards of pollutants to ecological health and integrity of aquatic species.     

Phosphorus release from coastal Baltic Sea sediments as estimated from sediment profiles

We used the decline in total phosphorus (P) concentration with depth in sediment profiles from the North-western Baltic Proper coastal zone to calculate the site-specific amount of sediment P eventually to be released to the water column: The potentially mobile P. P fractionation revealed that iron bound P dominated the potentially mobile P at sites with oxic surface sediment layers. Organic P forms were also a major constituent of the potentially mobile P pool. We determined that 1–7 g P/m² were potentially mobile at our sites, and the turnover time of this P pool was considered short, i.e., less than a decade. To determine long-term average P fluxes to and from the surface sediment layer, we first multiplied the constant and relatively low P concentration in deeper sediment layers with the sediment accumulation rate to gain the P burial rate. Then the average total P concentration in settling matter was multiplied with the sediment accumulation rate to estimate the depositional P flux at each site. The difference between the depositional and burial rates represents the long-term average release rate of sediment P and varied between 1.0 and 2.7 g P/m² yr among our sites. These rates are at the same order of magnitude as values reported from other areas of the Baltic Sea, and constitute a major source of P to the water column.     

Photochemical production of ammonium and transformation of dissolved organic matter in the Baltic Sea

The release of ammonium from the photochemical degradation of dissolved organic matter (DOM) has been proposed by earlier studies as a potentially important remineralisation pathway for refractory organic nitrogen. In this study the photochemical production of ammonium from Baltic Sea DOM was assessed in the laboratory. Filtered samples from the Bothnian Bay, the Gulf of Finland and the Arkona Sea were exposed to UVA light at environmentally relevant levels, and the developments in ammonium concentrations, light absorption, fluorescence and molecular size distribution were followed. The exposures resulted in a decrease in DOM absorption and loss of the larger sized fraction of DOM. Analysis of the fluorescence properties of DOM using parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC) identified 6 independent components. Five components decreased in intensity as a result of the UVA exposures. One component was produced as a result of the exposures and represents labile photoproducts derived from terrestrial DOM. The characteristics of DOM in samples from the Bothnian Bay and Gulf of Finland were similar and dominated by terrestrially derived material. The DOM from the Arkona Sea was more autochthonous in character. Photoammonification differed depending on the composition of DOM. Calculated photoammonification rates in surface waters varied between 121 and 382 μmol NH₄⁺ L^− 1 d^− 1. Estimated areal daily production rates ranged between 37 and 237 μmol NH₄⁺ m^− 2 d^− 1, which are comparable to atmospheric deposition rates and suggest that photochemical remineralisation of organic nitrogen may be a significant source of bioavailable nitrogen to surface waters during summer months with high irradiance and low inorganic nitrogen concentrations.     

Activity Concentrations and Fluxes of Radiocesium in the Southern Baltic Sea

The activity concentrations of dissolved¹³⁷Cs have been determined in the water column and¹³⁷Cs and¹³⁴Cs in the sediments and the sediment porewaters of the southern Baltic Sea. The mean activity concentration of dissolved¹³⁷Cs in the Gdansk Deep declined from 109 Bq m⁻³in June 1986 to 61 Bq m⁻³in 1999. In sediments, the activity concentrations of¹³⁷Cs (33-231 Bq kg⁻¹) were highest in muds and the activity concentrations of¹³⁴Cs were about 6% of the total Cs activity. The Chernobyl contribution to¹³⁷Cs activity was between 43% and 77%. The porewater activity concentrations of¹³⁷Cs in muddy sediments were in the range 71 to 3900 Bq m⁻³and were higher than those in the overlying seawater. The diffusive flux of dissolved¹³⁷Cs from the muddy sediments was estimated in the range 5 to 480 Bq m⁻²year⁻¹. The flux of¹³⁷Cs from sediment porewaters of the southern Baltic Sea was about 45% of the total, including fluxes of¹³⁷Cs from wet and dry atmospheric deposition and the fluvial inputs. The results were used to elucidate the rate of recovery of the sediments and the waters of the southern Baltic from Chernobyl-derived¹³⁷Cs.     

RNA:DNA ratios of Baltic Sea herring larvae and copepods in embayment and open sea habitats

Elucidation of important nursery habitats for young fish can aid in the management and assessment of fish stocks. Herring (Clupea harengus) in the Baltic Sea primarily spawn in coastal areas, but larvae are also present in off-shore, open sea areas. To investigate if sheltered coastal habitats provide a better growth environment for larval herring, we compared short-term growth (as indexed by whole body RNA:DNA ratios) of larval herring from three habitat types of the northwest Baltic proper (sheltered inner bay, exposed outer bay, and open sea). In addition, we compared individual RNA content of adult female Eurytemora affinis (a common Baltic copepod) among these different habitats. High RNA levels in these copepods indicate high production of nauplii, which are important food for larval herring. Both RNA:DNA ratios of larval herring and RNA content of E. affinis were significantly greater in embayment habitats, suggesting that the sheltered coastal areas are high quality nursery habitats for young Baltic herring.     

Atmospheric Pb and Cd input into the Baltic Sea: a new estimate based on measurements

Bulk deposition samples were collected during a summer (1997) and a winter (1998) measurement campaign at four coastal stations along the southern Baltic Sea coast and on the Island of Gotland. The data were used to construct Pb and Cd deposition fields over the Baltic Sea. A weak gradient with decreasing deposition rates from the southwest towards the east and north was obtained for Pb. In the case of Cd, the spatial distribution pattern was characterized by an extreme deposition maximum at the Polish station on the Hel Peninsula. The total atmospheric input of Pb and Cd into the Baltic Sea was 550 and 33 t/year, respectively, and exceeds the riverine input by approximately about 50%. Previous measurement-based estimates were higher by a factor 2–3 and indicate a decrease of the atmospheric deposition during the past 10–15 years. The comparison with modelled deposition data yielded partly large differences and was impaired by the fact that 1990 emission inventories were used whereas our measurements were performed in 1997/1998.Relating our deposition estimate and the Pb/Cd input by rivers to the mean concentrations in Baltic Sea water, residence times of 0.29 and 3.6 years were obtained for Pb and Cd, respectively.     

Vertical Patterns of Suspended Matter Characteristics Along a Coastal-basin Transect in the Western Baltic Sea

Suspended particulate matter samples were collected from the water column, the bottom nepheloid layer and the ‘ fluffy layer ’ from four stations along a coastal-basin transect in the Pomeranian Bight, western Baltic Sea. Sampling was performed nine times between October 1996 and December 1998 for various analyses, including electron probe x-ray micro analysis for detailed mineralogical investigations.Specific vertical patterns of clay mineral distributions were found. Suspended particulate matter (SPM) in the bottom nepheloid layer and the ‘ fluffy layer ’ overlying sediments was enriched in organic carbon and hydrated three layer clay minerals, whereas the non-aggregated SPM was dominated by quartz and biogenic opal. It appears that separation effects operate during aggregation of mineral particles and organic matter in repeated cycles of resuspension and settling. No clear seasonal variations in the composition of the SPM were found, in spite of high spatial and temporal variability of biological and physical variables. The results suggest that preferential incorporation, possibly aided by microbiological colonization, of hydrated three layer silicates into the organic flocs is a process that occurs under a wide range of conditions. Because aggregates sink faster than individual particles, aggregate formation led to a relative enrichment of illite and smectite in the near-bottom layers. Considering the affinity of organic contaminants and heavy metals to organic matter, the selective removal of aggregated organic matter and hydrated three-layer clay minerals from the water column and enhanced transport in the near-bottom fluffy layer may be a natural cleansing mechanism operating in the shallow waters of the bight.     

Variations in the Baltic Sea wave fields

The surface waves in the Baltic Sea are hindcast with the spectral wave model HYPAS during a 12-month period. The model results show a strong temporal and spatial variation in the wave field due to the physical dimensions of the different basins and the predominant wind field. The highest waves in the area are found in the outer part of Skagerrak, as well as in the central and southern parts of the Baltic Proper. To get significant waves above 6 m high, strong winds (15–20 m/s) must have been blowing for 6 to 24 h from a favourable direction over a deep area.     

Morphological evolution of gravel and sand extraction pits, Tromper Wiek, Baltic Sea

The growing demand for marine mineral resources introduces anthropogenic impacts in the coastal zone, among others also through aggregate dredging. Pits created by anchor hopper dredging may affect local sediment budgets, local hydrodynamics and biological habitats. In this study we investigate the processes and time-scales of pits refilling at two extraction sites over 6 years following cessation of dredging. We focused on the evolution of a single pit at a gravel extraction site and the development of a group of three pits located at a sand extraction site. In the case of the gravel pit, a series of six sonograph and two multibeam surveys were evaluated. We observed a spatial expansion of the edge of the pit, decreasing availability of screened sand in the neighbourhood of the pit (a possible source of refilling), and a slowing down of the refilling process with time. At the sandy pit site a series of seven sonographs and two multibeam surveys were available. We observed a smoothing of the edges and larger mean refilling rates than in the gravel pit case. We conclude that the most effective method for monitoring of pit evolution is to make measurements every six months by simultaneously deploying sidescan sonar and multibeam devices.