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以各类房屋地震易损性分析结果为基础,结合各类房屋平均造价、室内固定资产和 室内停留人数的调查资料。用地震造成经济损失预测方法和人员伤亡经验公式,进行经济损 失预测和人员伤亡评估.最终给出在地震烈度VI至X度下的经济损失值和人员伤亡数. 相似文献
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以山西G市为例,通过对该市建筑物造价、建筑物室内财产、各乡镇经济收入、县乡企业经济等情况进行的调查,对该市进行了直接和间接经济损失预测,从而给出总经济损失预测结果。在建筑物震害预测的基础上,给出不同破坏烈度下预测区的死亡人数、无家可归人数的预测结果,指出预测未来地震灾害的经济损失和人员伤亡是把握当今社会经济布局和未来灾害损失程度、科学制定防震减灾对策的重要环节之一。 相似文献
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在对忻州市现有房屋建筑进行调查研究的基础上,对房屋建筑按结构进行了分类,并对各类房屋进行了抗震分析,进而建立了相应的易损性矩阵,最终结果得到以小区为单元遭遇不同强度地震作用的地震损失和人员伤亡,以及50年地震期望损失。 相似文献
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讨论了地震造成人员伤亡的相关因素,分析了地震强度、建筑物抗震性能、人口密度、发震时间、地震引起发生灾害及地震预报与地震人员伤亡的相关性。按照确定性方法和概率性方法阐述了国内外地震人员伤亡预测方法,分析了它们的适用条件。并用确定性方法中的建筑物破坏程度与人员伤亡关系法对鲁南地区进行了地震人员伤亡预测。 相似文献
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前 言自从日本文部省测地学审议会1975年提出“部分修改第3次地震预报计划”的建议以来,地下水、地球化学方法正式纳入地震预报计划已历时20多年。这也是对地震的认识一成不变地开展地下水、地球化学观测的日本的历史。在地震预报研究中,虽然曾检测出许多地震前的异常现象,但并没有明显增加对其机制的认识。本文基于这种现状,提出地震(预报)研究中开展地下水、地球化学观测的目标。地下水和地球化学观测,研究中的最大弱点是在理论方面。由于缺乏联系地震发生机制与地下水、地球化学异常的理论,所以怎么也跳不出现象论的框框… 相似文献
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1 汶川大地震建筑物毁坏的主要原因分析 汶川8.0级巨震,使灾区倒塌房屋约650万间,毁坏房屋约2300余万间.根据对汶川大地震极震区北川县的房屋毁坏情况的调查,我们看到该县80%以上建筑物整体坍塌,几乎没有一栋房屋能够继续居住. 相似文献
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震后效应是较普遍和复杂的自然现象,各种物理、化学量的变化动态隐含着丰富的地壳活动的动力学信息,对其研究具有重要的理论和实际意义.本研究以典型观测井的水位震后效应为研究对象,分析震后效应的动态规律及其与构造应力环境的关系.系统的研究结果表明:①同一口井的震后效应方式与地震的强度和位置无关,对于同一口井不同地震引起的效应总是同向的,即总是上升或下降;②对于水位效应较显著震例,水位变化幅值与震级、距离之间具有很好的统计关系;③井点附近发生强震后的若干年内,井水位无后效,也就是说井水位响应灵敏度要受本地的应力状态的影响而随时间发生变化,本地发生中强以上地震后,响应灵敏度会降低;④对某些特定地区或方位的地震,井水位的后效幅值偏小.这些结果说明,井水位的地震后效除了与震级、距离有关外,更重要的是可能与水井所在地区的应力状态及地震波传播途径的地质背景有关. 相似文献
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David K. Keefer 《Surveys in Geophysics》2002,23(6):473-510
Post-earthquake field investigations of landslide occurrence have provided a basis for understanding, evaluating, and mapping the hazard and risk associated withearthquake-induced landslides. This paper traces thehistorical development of knowledge derived from these investigations. Before 1783, historical accounts of the occurrence of landslides in earthquakes are typically so incomplete and vague that conclusions based on these accounts are of limited usefulness. For example, the number of landslides triggered by a given event is almost always greatly underestimated. The first formal, scientific post-earthquake investigation that included systematic documentation of the landslides was undertaken in the Calabria region of Italy after the 1783 earthquake swarm. From then until the mid-twentieth century, the best information on earthquake-induced landslides came from a succession ofpost-earthquake investigations largely carried out by formal commissions that undertook extensive ground-based field studies. Beginning in the mid-twentieth century, when the use of aerial photography became widespread, comprehensive inventories of landslide occurrence have been made for several earthquakes in the United States, Peru, Guatemala, Italy, El Salvador, Japan, and Taiwan. Techniques have also been developed for performing ``retrospective' analyses years or decades after an earthquake that attempt to reconstruct the distribution of landslides triggered by the event. The additional use of Geographic Information System (GIS) processing and digital mapping since about 1989 has greatly facilitated the level of analysis that can applied to mapped distributions of landslides. Beginning in 1984, syntheses of worldwide and national data on earthquake-induced landslides have defined their general characteristics and relations between their occurrence and various geologic and seismic parameters. However, the number of comprehensive post-earthquake studies of landslides is still relatively small, and one of the most pressing needs in this area of research is for the complete documentation of landslides triggered by many more earthquakes in a wider variety of environments. 相似文献
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Huang Deyu Chen Yong Zhu Yuanqing Ji YingCenter for Analysis Prediction SSB Beijing China 'State Seismological Bureau of China Beijing China !Setsmological Bureau of Shanghai Shanghai China 《中国地震研究》1995,(1)
This paper researches TIP before 23 strong earthquakes occurring in the eastern part and the southern and northern zones of the western part of China and their nearby areas in recent decades.The results show that 18 strong earthquakes occurred within the diagnosed TIP.The TIP precaution occupies about 30% of the total space-time domain which we researched,indicating quite good results of intermediate-term prediction of earthquakes.The algorithm CN can thus be used as an intermediate-term prediction method for strong earthquakes. 相似文献
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针对现阶段地震人员死亡评估模型在评估特定区域地震时评估结果误差较大的问题,结合中国地震灾害特点、人口分布情况等,将中国大陆划分为西北、西南和大陆东部三个地区,并对各区域按照人口密度进行分级。采用多元非线性回归方法,选取震中烈度、震区面积、抗震设防烈度参数建立分区域的地震灾害人员死亡评估模型。研究结果表明,该模型在西北、西南地区的验证结果较好,适用于中国地震灾害情况,可以用于震后快速盲评估,在一定程度上能够避免评估不同震级、相同震中烈度和人口密度的地震时,出现相同结果的情况;虽然该模型在震例较少的大陆东部地区以及城市直下型地震中评估结果需要进一步改进,但为解决特定区域地震死亡评估中误差较大问题提供了思路,能够为震后应急指挥和救援提供数据参考。 相似文献
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Tsunamigenic Earthquakes: Past and Present Milestones 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Emile A. Okal 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2011,168(6-7):969-995
We review a number of events which, taken individually, have significantly affected our understanding of the generation of tsunamis by earthquake sources and our efforts at mitigating their hazards, notably through the development of warning algorithms. Starting with the 1700 Cascadia earthquake, we examine how significant tsunamis have changed our views in fields as diverse as seismotectonics, the diversity of earthquake cycles, the development of warning algorithms, the response of communities at risk to warnings, and their education, the latter being either formal or rooted in ancestral heritage. We discuss in detail lessons from the 2004 Sumatra disasters and review the performance of warning centers and the response of affected populations during the nine significant tsunamis which have taken place since 2004. 相似文献
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农村民房的地震破坏特征与震害预测 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
本文基于对中国西部和华北地区20世纪发生的21次历史地震的震害考察和10余次地震的现场震害调查资料的分析研究,总结归纳了农村木架房屋、墙体承重房屋、混合承重房屋、土坯拱窑、黄土崖窑、砖平房、多层砖混房在地震烈度为Ⅵ度、Ⅶ度、Ⅷ度、Ⅸ度、Ⅹ度时的震害表现,介绍了建筑物震害程度等级的划分与标准、破坏性地震在Ⅵ度-Ⅺ度区内各种结构类型农村民房破坏的烈度标志,给出了各种结构类型农村民房在地震烈度Ⅵ度-Ⅺ度情况下的震害预测结果,探讨了在造价增加不多的情况下,提高农村民房抗震能力的可行性。 相似文献