Modeling patch characteristics of farmland loss for site assessment in urban fringe of Beijing, China

Farmland protection and delimitation in the urban fringe considers not only natural factors but also the spatial characters and site factors. Taking Daxing District, Beijing in China as a case study, this paper used landscape ecology and power-law methods to analyze and evaluate farmland loss during the period of 2004-2007 based on the interpretation results of SPOT5 remote sensing images in 2004 and 2007. At the patch level, we selected four landscape indices, namely patch size, shape index, the nearest neighbor distance between farmland and construction land (including residential land and other construction land), and cropping type, to evaluate the risk of farmland loss and establish a farmland site analysis indicator system. The results showed that patch size and shape index have a significant positive correlation with farmland loss, whereas the distance to construction land has a clear negative correlation with farmland loss. As regards cropping type, fallow farmland is much easier for non-agricultural use than cultivated farmland. The relative transition ratio among vegetable land, fallow farmland and cultivated farmland is 1︰5.6︰1. The patch size of lost farmland follows a power-law distribution, indicating that not only small parcels but also large parcels can be lost. Patch size less than 4 ha or more than 15 ha is in high loss risk, between 4 ha and 10 ha in medium loss risk, and larger than 10 ha and less than 15 ha in low risk. Farmland with a more regular shape has a higher likelihood of loss. Patch shape index less than 2.0 is in high loss risk, between 2.0 and 3.0 in medium loss risk, and larger than 3.0 in low risk. Construction land has a varying impact on farmland loss, the residential land effected distance is 1000 m, and that of the other construction land is 2000 m. This analysis showed the relationships between site factors and farmland loss, and the analysis framework can provide support and reference for farmland protection and delimitation of prime farmland in China.     

Arrangement of High-standard Basic Farmland Construction Based on Village-region Cultivated Land Quality Uniformity

As an important constitute of land consolidation, high-standard basic farmland construction is an important means to protect the quantity, quality and ecological environment of cultivated land. Its target not only lies in the increase of cultivated land quantity, but also the improvement of cultivated land quality, agricultural production conditions and ecosystem environments. In the present study, the quality evaluation method and construction arrangement of cultivated land were explored to facilitate the process of decision-making and implementation for high-standard basic farmland construction(HSBFC) with administrative village as the unit. Taking the land comprehensive improvement project area in Quzhou County, Handan City, Hebei Province as a case study, the whole process of the study comprised of three steps: 1) establishment of the evaluation model of cultivated land quality uniformity based on regional optimum cultivated land quality, and construction of the uniformity evaluation index system from the aspects of soil fertility quality, engineering quality, spatial quality and eco-environment quality, according to the new concept of cultivated land quality; 2) calculation of cultivated land quality uniformity by grading indicators, assigning scores and weighting sums, exploring the local homogenization characteristics of regional cultivated land quality through spatial autocorrelation analysis, and analyzing the constraints and transformative potential of barrier factors; 3) arrangement of HSBFC according to the principle of concentration, continuity and priority to the easy operation. The results revealed that the value of farmland quality uniformity for the administrative villages in the study area was between 7.76 and 21.96, and there was a difference between various administrative villages. The regional spatial autocorrelation patterns included High-High(HH), Low-Low(LL), High-Low(HL) and Low-High(LH). These indicate that regional cultivated land quality has local homogenization characteristics. The most restrictive factors in the study area were the medium and low transformation difficulty indexes, including soil organic matter content, farmland shelterbelt network density, field regularity and scale of the field. In addition, there were also high transformation difficulty indicators in some areas, such as sectional configuration. The project area was divided into four partitions: major construction area, secondary construction area, general construction area, and conditional construction area. The cultivated land area of each subarea was 1538.85 ha, 1224.27 ha, 555.93 ha, and 1666.63 ha, respectively. This comprised of 30.87%, 24.56%, 11.15% and 33.42% of the total project area, respectively. The evaluation model and index system could satisfy the evaluation of farmland quality and diagnosis of obstacle factors to facilitate the subsequent construction decision. The present study provides reference for the practice of regional HSBFC, and a new feasible idea and method for related studies.     

北京市高速公路周边土地利用变化对景观格局的影响

高速公路的快速发展在推动经济发展的同时,也对区域的生态环境产生重要的影响。在地理信息系统的支持下,本研究以北京市高速公路网10 km缓冲区为研究区域,利用缓冲区分析、空间分析、统计分析等方法探讨了高速公路周边土地利用变化对景观格局的影响规律。结果表明：① 北京市高速公路周边的土地利用类型主要以建设用地、耕地、林地为主,土地利用变化以耕地向建设用地转入最为显著;② 空间变化上,各缓冲区内土地利用变化以林地、耕地、建设用地的相互转移为主,随着与高速公路的距离增大,土地利用类型从以耕地、建设用地为主逐渐转变为以林地、耕地为主;③ 2005-2015年,各类景观的景观指数变化差异明显,其中水域的斑块密度与分离度指数变化幅度最大,耕地的形状指数增加最快,建设用地的分离度指数减少最多,这与相应的土地利用变化密切相关;④ 基于土地利用变化,北京市高速公路网对周边景观格局的影响范围约为6 km,其中林地转入建设用地以及建设用地与耕地的相互转移是引起公路周边景观空间变化差异的主要原因。     

Livelihood Diversification of Farm Households and Its Impact on Cultivated Land Utilization in Agro-pastoral Ecologically-vulnerable Areas in the Northern China

The relationship between livelihood diversification of farm households and cultivated land utilization has become a core research topic related to global environmental change. Agro-pastoral ecologically-vulnerable areas face challenges such as insufficient ecosystem conservation, low agricultural production, and weak economies. In this study, 215 farm households from Zhengxiangbai Banner, Taibus Banner, and Duolun County of Inner Mongolia were surveyed. The sustainable livelihoods framework of the United Kingdom(UK) Department for International Development(DFID) was used to measure the livelihood capital of these farm households. A one-way analysis of variance(ANOVA) was applied to examine the differences in the livelihood capital of different types households, and a correlation analysis was applied to analyze its impact on cultivated land utilization. Results showed that households with non-farming activities accounted for 64.7% of the total surveyed households, and non-farming employment was becoming more prevalent. Physical and financial capital was the driving factors for livelihood diversity. Each livelihood capital had key factors that affected household farmland use behaviors, such as the age of householder, the labor ratio, proportion of income, farmland scale, number of machines, and these had a significantly positive or negative influence on farmland use. Full-time farming households were more likely to transfer the land into cultivation and invest more labor, while non-farming households with high income were likely to transfer farmland out and invest more money to develop efficient farming or improve the employment skills. The results of this study suggest that policymakers need to fully consider livelihood changes of local households. It is effective to strengthen labor training, create farmland market and improve the efficiency of farmland utilization. We hope to achieve a win-win scenario to improve local economies and ecosystem conservation.     

京津唐地区城市扩张对地表蒸散发的影响

以京津唐地区为例,基于SEBS模型,利用MODIS遥感数据和气象数据,计算了2000、2005和2010年四季代表月份的平均日蒸散发量,并结合3期土地利用图,定量评估了由城市扩张引起的日蒸散发量的变化。结果表明,不同土地利用类型的日蒸散发量在不同季节表现出不同的分布规律,春、夏和秋季的日蒸散发量分布规律为水域>林地>草地>耕地>城市用地,冬季的日蒸散发量在三年的分布不一致:2000年为林地>草地>水域>城市用地>耕地,2005年为水域>林地>草地>耕地>城市用地,2010年为林地>水域>草地>城市用地>耕地。以研究区土地利用变化不明显的区域为背景区域,评估了除土地利用/覆被变化外的其他因素对京津唐地区夏季日蒸散发的影响。除去该影响后得出土地利用/覆被变化,对日蒸散发的影响,结果表明,各土地利用类型转化为城市用地会使日蒸散发降低,且水域转化成城市用地后,其日蒸散发量降低最多,2000-2005年降低了0.977mm,2000-2010年其降低值为0.983mm。     

An investigation of changes in cultivated land in guangdong province of China using GIS

１　ＩＮＴＲＯＤＵＣＴＩＯＮＧｕａｎｇｄｏｎｇＰｒｏｖｉｎｃｅｈａｓｂｅｅｎｗｉｄｅｌｙｋｎｏｗｎａｓｏｎｅｏｆｔｈｅｍｏｓｔｉｍｐｏｒｔａｎｔｉｎｄｕｓｔｒｉａｌｂａｓｅｓｆｏｒｅｘｐｏｒｔｉｎＣｈｉｎａ．ＩｔｈａｓｐｌａｙｅｄａｎｉｍｐｏｒｔａｎｔｒｏｌｅｉｎｅｃｏｎｏｍｉｃｒｅｆｏｒｍａｎｄｄｅｖｅｌｏｐｍｅｎｔｉｎＣｈｉｎａ．Ｉｎｒｅｃｅｎｔｙｅａｒｓ,ｉｔｈａｓａｔｔａｉｎｅｄａｓｕｓｔａｉｎａｂｌｅｅｃｏｎｏｍｉｃｇｒｏｗｔｈａｎｄｋｅｐｔｔｈｅｆｉｒｓｔｐｏｓｉｔｉｏｎｉｎｅｃｏｎ…     

基于遥感的丁字湾地区土地利用时空变化分析及地区生态修复建议

丁字湾地区是山东半岛蓝色经济区划9大核心区之一,是胶东经济圈一体化建设的焦点,发展远景广阔。本文选取2005年、2010年、2016年三期TM影像进行遥感解译研究丁字湾地区土地利用变化特征及其空间分布。研究结果表明,丁字湾地区土地利用类型以耕地为主,2005—2016年间建设用地、草地的面积显著增加,水域、海域面积大幅减少。土地的转移主要发生在"建设用地与耕地、耕地与水域、养殖盐田与海域、草地与养殖盐田"之间。城乡建设的不断发展,也给丁字湾地区带来了海岸侵蚀、海水入侵等生态环境负面影响。建议在湾口地区开展"退围还海、退养还滩、退耕还湿"等海岸整治修复工作后,发展人地环境和谐的生态旅游经济。     

Relationships between river water quality and landscape factors in Haihe River Basin,China: Implications for environmental management

River water plays a key role in human health, and in social and economic development, and is often affected by both natural factors and human activities. An in-depth understanding of the role of these factors can help in developing an effective catchment management strategy to protect precious water resources. This study analyzed river water quality, patterns of terrestrial and riparian ecosystems, intensity of agricultural activities, industrial structure, and spatial distribution of pollutant emissions in the Haihe River Basin in China for the year of 2010, identifying the variables that have the greatest impact on river water quality. The area percentage of farmland in study area, the percentage of natural vegetation cover in the 1000-m riparian zone, rural population density, industrial Gross Domestic Product (GDP)/km², and industrial amino nitrogen emissions were all significantly correlated with river water quality (P < 0.05). Farming had the largest impact on river water quality, explaining 43.0% of the water quality variance, followed by the coverage of natural vegetation in the 1000-m riparian zone, which explained 36.2% of the water quality variance. Industrial amino nitrogen emissions intensity and rural population density explained 31.6% and 31.4% of the water quality variance, respectively, while industrial GDP/km² explained 26.6%. Together, these five indicators explained 67.3% of the total variance in water quality. Consequently, water environmental management of the Haihe River Basin should focus on adjusting agricultural activities, conserving riparian vegetation, and reducing industrial pollutant emissions by optimizing industrial structure. The results demonstrate how human activities drive the spatial pattern changes of river water quality, and they can provide reference for developing land use guidelines and for prioritizing management practices to maintain stream water quality in a large river basin.     

近20年黄土高原土地利用/覆被变化特征分析

本文根据黄土高原地区20世纪80年代末、2000年、2008年3期土地利用/覆被空间数据集,计算2个时段（20世纪80年代末-2000年,2000-2008年）土地利用/覆被转类方向及其幅度、土地利用/覆被转类指数、土地利用/覆被状况指数及其变化率,分析黄土高原地区自20世纪80年代末以来土地利用/覆被时空变化特征以及宏观生态状况的变化趋势。结果显示：黄土高原地区近20年来平均土地利用/覆被状况指数为24.07,其中土石山区生态系统综合功能最好,其次为河谷平原区,最差的为农灌区。20世纪80年代末-2000年,黄土高原地区主要土地利用/覆被转类是森林和草地转为耕地,生态级别由高级向低级转移,2000-2008年主要土地利用/覆被转类是耕地转为林地和草地,低覆盖草地转为中高覆盖草地,生态级别由低级向高级转移。近20年来黄土高原地区地覆被状况指数变化以及土地利用/覆被转类指数表明,该区域的宏观生态状况总体上经历了转差（20世纪80年代末-2000年土地利用/覆被转类指数为-1.08）,后转好（2000-2008年土地利用/覆被转类指数为2.66）2个过程。这一变化过程前期受区域气候变化以及人口增长共同驱动,后期则叠加了生态工程的影响。     

基于CLUE-S模型的辽河流域景观格局空间分布模拟

基于CLUE-S模型,以辽河流域为研究区,利用2000年和2010年两期土地利用数据,采用Logistic逐步回归方程ROC曲线,选择高程、距离、土壤等8种驱动因子,对2010年景观格局进行模拟,并依据2010景观格局、相应的辽河流域土地利用规划,设置3种不同情景,进行2010-2020年景观格局模拟。研究表明：(1)模拟的2010年景观格局,kappa精度达到90%以上,表明CLUE-S模型在辽河流域具有良好的景观格局模拟能力。(2)辽河流域在不同情境下,建设用地均出现不同程度的增加,耕地出现不同程度减少。其中,情景2中,森林有所减少,耕地转化幅度较大,建设用地围绕辽河流域城镇带建设逐步扩展,集中在沈阳、抚顺、鞍山等工业发达城市;情景3中,森林、湿地逐步扩大,表现在东部退耕还林,南部紧靠辽海入口湿地增加。研究结论可为未来辽河流域的生态保护建设及景观格局合理规划提供参考依据。     

Spatio-temporal Dynamic Simulation of Land use and Ecological Risk in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration,China

Rapid urbanization leads to dramatic changes in land use patterns, and the land use/cover change(LUCC) can reflect the spatial impact of urbanization on the ecological environment. Simulating the process of LUCC and predicting the ecological risk future changes can provide supports for urban ecological management. Taking the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration(YRDUA),China as the study area, four developmental scenarios were set on the basis of the land use data from 2005 to 2015. The temporal land use changes were predicted by the integration of the system dynamic and the future land use simulation(SD-FLUS) model, and the geographically weighted regression(GWR) model was used to identify the spatial heterogeneity and evolution characteristics between ecological risk index(ERI) and socio-economic driving forces. Results showed that: 1) From 2005 to 2015, the expansion of construction land(7670.24 km~2) mainly came from the occupation of cultivated land(7854.22 km~2). The Kappa coefficient of the SD-FLUS model was 0.886, indicating that this model could be used to predict the future land use changes in the YRDUA. 2) Gross domestic production(GDP) and population density(POP) showed a positive effect on the ERI, and the impact of POP exceeded that of GDP. The ERI showed the characteristics of zonal diffusion and a slight upward trend, and the high ecological risk region increased by 6.09%, with the largest increase. 3) Under different developmental scenarios, the land use and ecological risk patterns varied. The construction land is increased by 5.76%, 7.41%, 5.25% and 6.06%, respectively. And the high ecological risk region accounted for 12.71%, 15.06%, 11.89%,and 12.94%, correspondingly. In Scenario D, the structure of land use and ecological risk pattern was better compared with other scenarios considering the needs of rapid economic and ecological protection. This study is helpful to understand the spatio-temporal pattern and demand of land use types, grasp the ecological security pattern of large-scale areas, and provide scientific basis for the territory development of urban agglomeration in the future.     

THE CHANGING TENDENCY OF LAND RESOURCES AND THE COUNTERMEASURES IN HAINAN PROVINCE IN 2000

Hainan Provine, with an land area of 34,170 km2, is the largest economic district for external development in China. With the further deepening of reform and openning up, some new problems of land resource exploitation and use have arisen. The changing tendency of land use is estimated as follows: Land use in economic exploitation, city development and traffic will be increased rapidly; hydraulic construction will occupy a part of land; the use of wasteland is increasing; and the total farmland and per capital farmland will decrease continously. In 2000, the occupied land should be controlled in 5 million mu (1 mu=1/ 15 ha), in which farmland is 160,000 mu. The farmland should be maintained in 6.5 million mu. Some measures to implement the strategy and object of land use are put forward: enhancing land management and administration; excuting land policy and making land management mechanism active; enhancing the efficiency of land use; and control the growth of population strictly.     

基于FLUS-UGB的县域土地利用模拟及城镇开发边界划定研究

当前城镇开发边界的制定与已有基本农田和生态保护红线存在较大的龃龉,在新的国土空间规划体系下,需要科学划定县域合理的城镇开发边界以实现国土空间的可持续开发利用。对此,本文提出了基于三线协调和FLUS-UGB的城镇增长边界划定方法,以江苏省丰县为研究案例,在对其2011—2017年土地利用进行模拟和验证的基础上预测了至2035年的多情景土地利用变化,结合耕地保护与生态控制背景,最终确定城镇增长边界。结果表明：① 2017年丰县土地利用模拟的总体精度达到94.7%,Kappa系数为0.895,模拟精度较高。② 基准情景下,城镇用地呈现“摊大饼”的空间扩张趋势。在耕地保护与生态控制背景下,城镇呈“放射式”向外有序扩张。③ 预测2035年丰县城镇用地开发边界面积为80.29 km²,2017—2035年共17年增长幅度达到69.07%。明确划分城镇开发边界能够有效避免城镇用地对永久基本农田和重要生态用地的侵占,从而实现城镇扩张、永久基本农田和重要生态用地保护三者之间的良好空间协调。     

长江三角洲土地资源遥感动态分析

对土地资源需求的增长与有限的土地资源量之间的矛盾 ,是长江三角洲区域经济持续发展的主要矛盾之一。随着长江三角洲区域经济的快速发展 ,城市化、工业化进程加快 ,土地资源在高强度的开发中发生快速变化。在经济发展的同时 ,人与土地资源的矛盾更加尖锐 ,成为当前制约国民经济持续、协调发展的重要因素。长江三角洲地区是我国经济高度发达的地区之一 ,也是我国历史上少有的大面积粮食高产、稳产区。本文在利用遥感和 GIS技术对 1985～ 2 0 0 0年间全区土地资源进行动态分析 ,特别是在对耕地资源数量的定量分析基础上 ,结合区域土地资源的结构变化特点 ,深入研究其时空过程及动态变化规律 ,探索长江三角洲地区耕地动态平衡的措施与土地资源合理利用的对策 ,为区域农业持续发展服务。     

权衡耕地保护与城市扩张的永久基本农田划定--以武汉市为例

永久基本农田划定是实现耕地保护、土地集约利用以及保障粮食安全的有效方式。然而城市的快速扩张给永久基本农田划定带来了挑战,如何协调城市扩张与耕地保护两者的关系、科学合理地划定永久基本农田亟待解决。本文以武汉市为例,结合LESA(Land Evaluation and Site Assessment)方法及LANDSCAPE模型(LAND System Cellular Automata Model for Potential Effects)综合考虑永久基本农田划定与城市扩张的冲突,进行永久基本农田划定,试图协调耕地保护与城市扩张对土地资源需求的矛盾,为"多规合一"背景下科学划定永久基本农田提供方法借鉴,为优质耕地保护及土地利用优化布局提供决策参考。①运用LESA方法对武汉市的耕地进行综合质量评价及等级划分;②基于LESA综合评价结果,运用LANDSCAPE模型对武汉市永久基本农田划定及城镇建设用地扩张进行模拟;③将LANDSCAPE模型划定的永久基本农田结果与基于LESA方法划定的结果进行数量、质量和空间形态上的对比分析。结果表明:2种方法划定的永久基本农田面积相当,质量差异不大。但在空间形态上,基于LANDSCAPE模型的划定结果明显优于基于LESA方法:划定的永久基本农田集中连片分布,形状较为规则。值得注意的是,LESA方法划定的永久基本农田中有15.8%将被新增城镇建设用地侵占,而LANDSCAPE模型能够有效避免这部分永久基本农田被侵占。     

珠江三角洲地区登革热流行风险空间模拟与预测

近年来日益严重的登革热疫情已在中国南部地区形成疫情高发区,并对中国的公共卫生安全形成了一定的威胁。登革热主要受到区域内复杂的自然环境条件以及社会经济因素的影响,而利用地理空间分析方法和模型探究登革热疫情的影响因素,并对其未来流行风险的空间分布进行模拟,是有效开展登革热预防控制工作的重要基础。本文收集了珠江三角洲地区2010-2014年的登革热病例资料和土地利用、人口密度两种社会经济要素数据,构建土地利用回归（LUR）模型以分析登革热疫情与不同空间范围内的土地利用和人口密度之间的关系,并结合SLEUTH模型获取的2030年土地利用数据以及基于人口密度预测模型获取的2030年人口密度数据,预测珠江三角洲地区2030年登革热疫情风险的空间分布。结果表明,社会经济要素对登革热疫情空间分布的影响在不同范围内存在差异,半径分别为10、7、10、2和1 km的缓冲区内的人口密度、草地、城镇用地、林地和耕地进入LUR模型并对疫情有显著的影响（相关系数分别为0.779、-0.473、0.818、-0.642和-0.403）,所构建的LUR模型效果较好（调整R²为0.796,F=390.409,P<0.01）,留一交叉检验结果显示模型的相对均方根误差为0.7046,预测值与实测值的拟合精度达到0.7101。2030年城市空间扩展的区域主要分布在深圳、东莞以及广佛的交界地区,而登革热风险预测模型表明2030年登革热疫情风险较大的区域与珠江三角洲城镇用地占比、人口分布较高的地区有高度的一致性,尤其是广佛地区。因此,LUR模型可以较好地预测登革热疫情的空间分布,从而为当地卫生部门防控登革热提供方法支持。     

黄河三角洲东营市土地利用“涨势图谱”的时空特征分析

本文在分析黄河三角洲环境生态特征的基础上 ,以 4 0年 (1 95 6～ 1 996年 )来 4期土地利用数据合成的土地利用系列图谱及其“涨势”变化图谱为基础 ,研究不同行政单元上“涨势图谱”的时空分布变化规律 ,并分析了耕地、盐碱地以及居民工矿用地在“涨势图谱”上的时空分布特征。     

武汉城市圈土地利用时空变化及政策驱动因素分析

武汉城市圈是全国首批“两型社会”改革试验区之一,而且是中部崛起战略和长江经济带发展战略的重点区域。为了正确认识武汉城市圈土地利用时空变化特征,以及政策因素对土地利用变化的影响,本文基于2000、2005、2010和2015年4期武汉城市圈土地利用现状数据,结合GIS空间分析、数理统计、单一土地利用动态度、土地利用转移矩阵和综合土地利用动态度方法,对武汉城市圈2000-2015年以及3个5年期土地利用变化的总体特征、转化方向和区域差异特征进行研究,并分析政策因素对土地利用变化的驱动作用。结果表明：① 总体特征上,2000-2015年耕地、草地、林地和未利用地面积持续减少,建设用地和水域面积不断增多。② 变化方向上,2000-2015年以耕地、林地转化为建设用地和水域为主要特征,2000-2005年以耕地向水域和建设用地转化为主,2005-2010年以耕地向建设用地、水域,林地向建设用地转化为主,2010-2015年以耕地、林地和水域向建设用地转化为主。③ 区域时空差异上,综合土地利用动态度最大的区域集中在武汉城市圈的中部;从单一土地利用动态度看,耕地主要分布在武汉城市圈周边地区;建设用地主要集中在武汉城市圈中部;水域集中在武汉城市圈的仙桃市;林地主要在潜江市、云梦县;草地主要为英山县。④ 政策驱动因素分析上,中部崛起、两型社会、长江经济带发展战略等政策对土地利用变化具有重要影响。     

Analyzing land-use change in farming-pastoral transitional region using autologistic model and household survey approach

Land change science （LCS） strives to understand and model land-use change, which will further advance the understanding of multiple issues in the socio-ecological systems. Based on GIS/RS techniques, autologistic model, and household survey method, this study investigated major land use changes and their causes from 1978 to 2008 in Uxin Banner （county-level）, Inner Mongolia in China and then developed an understanding of the relationships between household livelihood and land-use pattern. Results showed that cultivated land increased from 1988 to 2000, and leveled offafter 2000. Built-up land increased stably for the period 1978 2008. The change of grassland and bare land differed among the three periods. From 1978 to 1988, grassland increased by 23.3%, and bare land decreased by 20.48%. From 1988 to 2000, bare land expanded by 1.7%, but grassland declined by 1.3%. From 2000 to 2008, an increase in grassland area by 1.8% was observed, but a decrease in bare land area by 9.0% was witnessed. The autologistic models performed better than logistic models as indicated by lower Akaike Information Criterion （AIC） values. Factors associated with human activities significantly correlated with the change of cultivated land, forest land, grassland, and built-up land. The produce prices and extensive cultivated land use are major issues in the farming area. This study suggests that completing land circulation systems and maintaining the stability of price are effective solutions. By contrast, reclamation and overgrazing are major concerns in the pastoral areas. Implementing environmental policies effectively, transferring population out of rural pastoral areas, and developing modem animal husbandry are effective ways to address these issues.     

黄土高原生态退耕的时空分异特征

生态退耕是调整陆地生态系统结构与功能以应对土地利用过度干扰的重要途径之一,因此科学掌握退耕格局与耕地格局演变对黄土高原生态环境治理与生态修复具有深远意义。本文以位于黄土高原的延安市为典型区,从生态退耕的整体特征、地形因素及区域差异等角度,探究生态退耕以来其耕地变化及退耕状况的空间分异特征。结果表明：生态退耕致使延安市耕地面积由2000年的11 752.80 km²减少为2013年的9149.93 km²,退耕面积为2756.85 km²,退耕指数为22.15%,且退耕耕地主要转化为林地、草地,占退耕面积的95.29%;耕地与退耕面积主要分布于6~15°、15~25°坡度及第II级（925~1115 m）、第III级（1115~1275 m）,且2005-2013年的生态退耕速率均高于2000-2005年的生态退耕速率;县域退耕面积及退耕程度均呈现由北向南依次递减的分异特征,而退耕重心与耕地重心均在延安市几何中心以北的安塞县与宝塔区边界,且生态退耕的重心由东北向西南方向迁移,耕地重心则由北向南迁移。本文通过对延安市生态退耕的时空分异特征分析可为黄土高原更加科学合理地推进生态保育与生态文明建设提供参考。