中国自然生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性评估

生态系统的脆弱性已经成为气候变化影响评估和适应性管理的关键问题。本文介绍和分析了生态系统的脆弱性、敏感性和阈值的概念,中国生态环境的敏感带和脆弱性,脆弱性评估和中国生态系统脆弱分布以及自然生态系统的可持续性和适应减缓对策。自然生态系统对气候变化脆弱性评估仍存在许多问题和不确定性,迫切需要在以下领域开展研究:自主开发新一代气候变化对生态系统影响综合评估模型(特别是双向耦合模型)、加强相关野外长期观测实验、开展适应性与可持续发展示范工程的研究等。     

基于遥感数据的西藏高原自然生态系统脆弱性评估

基于生态系统结构、功能、生境的脆弱性评价指标体系,以MODIS为基础数据源,评估了西藏高原自然生态系统的脆弱性,并揭示其空间异质性特征。结果表明：① 分别基于气候、结构以及功能指标的西藏高原生态系统脆弱性程度空间分布呈现出相似规律,整体为从东南向西北脆弱性程度逐渐加剧的趋势;而基于地形指标的生态脆弱性则呈现相反的分布格局,说明了相对地形而言,气候因子对于西藏高原生态系统宏观分布状况更为重要;② 综合生态系统结构、功能及气候和地形生境特征对脆弱性的影响,全区呈现从东南向西北综合脆弱性水平逐渐升高的趋势,在评估区范围内综合脆弱性等级为中等及以上的地区共占74%,整体脆弱性程度较大,其中综合脆弱性等级为很高水平的地区占了45.8%。明晰西藏高原自然生态系统的脆弱性程度及其空间分布特征,可为典型脆弱生态系统的监测和综合评估提供科学依据,进而有利于青藏地区生态环境治理工作的顺利进行。     

全球气候变化背景下生态系统的脆弱性评价

未来100年气候变暖速度将比上一世纪提高2－10倍,势必对生态系统的格局、过程和服务功能产生巨大影响,威胁生态系统和社会经济的持续发展。因此评价全球气候变化背景下生态系统脆弱性是当前全球变化和生态系统研究的主要内容。由于气候变化以及生态系统对其响应和适应的复杂性,生态系统脆弱性评价进展缓慢。本文在阐明生态系统脆弱性概念的基础上,综述了近年来国内外关于气候变化对生态系统影响及其脆弱性评价研究的现状、方法,归纳和介绍了脆弱性评价研究的三种主要方法——模型模拟研究、指标评价研究以及类比研究,指出气候变化的脆弱性评价研究中存在的问题、不足以及今后的发展方向。     

我国玉米对气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性研究

文章利用英国Hadley中心PRECIS模型输出的B2气候情景格点数据,输入CERES_Maize作物模型,对我国未来(2 070 s)不同格点玉米产量进行预测,并依据产量的变化率和GIS技术对我国未来玉米气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性进行研究,找出了未来我国玉米的气候变化敏感区和脆弱区,对指导我国不同玉米生产区有效适应未来气候变化具有重要的科学意义。     

IPCCSRES情景下新疆未来气候变化格局分析

全球气候模型（GCM）提供了有效的方法来评估全球气候变化的过程,并可预估包括人类活动因素驱动在内的未来气候变化情景。然而其较低的分辨率并不能捕捉到那些地表特性复杂区域的气候变化特性。因此,使用包括区域气候模型（RcM）、偏差校正法和统计方法等方法在内的降尺度方法来处理GCM的原始数据以达到评估区域的气候变化的目的。本研究应用使用偏差校正法中的delta方法将24个GCM在IPCC三种气候变化情景下的月尺度数据水平分辨率降尺度到0．5℃,进而用于分析新疆未来气候变化格局。基于降尺度后的计算结果与GCM模型原始数据比较表明：降尺度方法可以改善复杂地表和地形的区域气候变化预估特征,并降低GCM生成的气候数据在新疆地区的不确定性。结果表明：AIB、A2和B1三种情景模式下年均气温和年降水量在21世纪早期具有相似的空间格局与变化趋势,到21世纪中期会产生波动变化。年平均气温在A1B,A2和B1三种情景下到21世纪末将分别达到10℃,11．1℃和8．5℃;与此同时,年降水量将会有波动性的增加趋势。在2020—2070年间,AIB情景下区域年平均气温大于其他两个情景。A1B情景下的年降水量在2020-2040年间也大于其他两个情景。然而,在不同的情境下年平均气温与年降水存在很大的不确定性。不同情景下年平均气温的差异达6℃,而年平均降水差异大约200mm。在区域气候变化格局方面,到21世纪末,在天山中部、伊犁河流域、天山南部和塔里木河下游的年平均气温的增长要比准噶尔盆地、帕米尔高原和昆仑上北坡的小。年降水量在南疆西部呈现出轻微的下降趋势,但是在昌吉,吐鲁番,哈密和阿尔金山北部呈现出增长趋势。     

过去50年气候变化下中国潜在植被NPP的脆弱性评价

借助动态植被模型IBIS,首先模拟了过去50年（1961-2010年）气候变化下中国潜在植被NPP的动态变化,然后采用IPCC第五次评估报告选定的标准气候态时段（1986-2005年）平均气候状态作为“标准年气候”,并将该气候条件下的潜在植被NPP作为评价基准。通过与基准进行比较,计算每一年潜在植被NPP的波动情况,进而评价该年的气候条件是否使潜在植被“不适应”以及“不适应”的程度,最后根据过去50年的“不适应”次数和程度综合判断气候变化下潜在植被NPP的脆弱性。评价结果显示：在过去50年的气候变化下,天山以南的暖温带荒漠生态系统、北方温带草原生态系统以及青藏高原西部的高寒草原生态系统更容易受到气候变化的不利影响,NPP呈现出较高的脆弱性;而大部分以森林为主的生态系统则不容易受到气候变化的影响,NPP脆弱性较低,其中以常绿阔叶林和针叶林为主的生态系统NPP脆弱性更低。此外,天山以北的温带荒漠生态系统以及青藏高原中部和东部的高寒草原草甸生态系统NPP也呈现出较低的脆弱性。     

气候变化情景下中国自然生态系统脆弱性研究——一个基于生态地理区域的研究(英文)

Assessment of vulnerability for natural ecosystem to climate change is a hot topic in climate change and ecology, and will support adapting and mitigating climate change. In this study, LPJ model modified according to features of China's natural ecosystems was employed to simulate ecosystem dynamics under A2, B2 and A1B scenarios. Vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was assessed according to the vulnerability assessment model. Based on eco-geographical regions, vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was analyzed. Results suggest that vulnerability for China's natural ecosystems would strengthen in the east and weaken in the west, but the pattern of ecosystem vulnerability would not be altered by climate change, which rises from southeast to northeast gradually. Increase in ecosystem vulnerable degree would mainly concentrate in temperate humid/sub-humid region and warm temperate humid/sub-humid region. Decrease in ecosystem vulnerable degree may emerge in northwestern arid region and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. In the near-term scale, natural ecosystem in China would be slightly affected by climate change. However, in mid-term and long-term scales, there would be severely adverse effect, particularly in the east with better water and thermal condition.     

湿地脆弱性评价研究进展

湿地脆弱性评价是近年来湿地科学及可持续性科学领域的热点和前沿.湿地脆弱性评价研究经历了从湿地脆弱性特征定性评价,到湿地脆弱性定量评价,再到气候变化下湿地脆弱性评价的发展历程.首先,在对湿地脆弱性概念归纳总结的基础上,提出湿地脆弱性是在自然环境和人为压力下湿地退化的程度和可能性.其次,定性介绍了水土流失、水热分配不均、湿地退化等主要脆弱性特征表现;并以脆弱性评价的基本步骤为主线论述了模型法、特征法、综合指数法、EFI评价法、空间分析法等主要研究方法;同时,从不同角度概述了气候变化背景下的湿地脆弱性,总结了湿地水文景观分类法、生物完整性指标法、模型法、空间分析等评价方法.最后,指出湿地脆弱性研究中存在的概念不统一、评价标准不一致、评价指标范围较狭窄、动态研究偏少、定量评价的不确定性等主要问题,提出了完善评价体系、加强动态研究和国内对气候变化下湿地脆弱性的定量研究以及不确定性分析、脆弱性评价与决策管理衔接等湿地脆弱性未来研究的重点.     

基于情景模拟的上海中心城区建筑暴雨内涝脆弱性分析

暴雨内涝灾害是上海市最主要的自然灾害类型之一。在全球气候变化与海平面上升背景下,随着城市人口、财富的不断积聚,沿海城市的脆弱性增强,面临的暴雨内涝灾害风险形势更加严峻。基于情景分析视角,结合前人研究成果,分析、评价上海中心城区建筑暴雨内涝灾害脆弱性。结果显示:仓库与旧式住宅是暴雨内涝灾害中脆弱性程度最大的建筑类型。整体上,杨浦、普陀、徐汇区建筑脆弱性程度最大,长宁、虹口、闸北建筑脆弱性程度处于中等水平,卢湾、静安与黄浦区建筑脆弱性程度相对较低。     

全球气候变化下中国农业的脆弱性与适应对策

全球气候变化问题虽然还存在某些不确定性，但已得到广泛认同，对气候条件颇为敏感的农业将受影响，主要效应可概括为：（１）农业地理限制的变动；（２）作物产量的变化；（３）对农业系统的冲击。中国农业对气候变化与波动尤其敏感，加之人口压力进一步加大和农业资源已有紧缺，粮食自给的能力将受到严重威胁，必须充分重视适应和调整对策的研究，变动性与不确定性是气候的固有特征，在评价全球气候变化对农业的影响时应该认识到这     

Vulnerability of natural ecosystem in China under regional climate scenarios:An analysis based on eco-geographical regions简

Assessment of vulnerability for natural ecosystem to climate change is a hot topic in climate change and ecology, and will support adapting and mitigating climate change. In this study, LPJ model modified according to features of China＇s natural ecosystems was em- ployed to simulate ecosystem dynamics under A2, B2 and A1B scenarios. Vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was assessed according to the vulnerability assessment model. Based on eco-geographical regions, vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was analyzed. Results suggest that vulnerability for China＇s natural ecosystems would strengthen in the east and weaken in the west, but the pattern of ecosystem vulner- ability would not be altered by climate change, which rises from southeast to northeast gradually. Increase in ecosystem vulnerable degree would mainly concentrate in temperate humid/sub-humid region and warm temperate humid/sub-humid region. Decrease in eco- system vulnerable degree may emerge in northwestern arid region and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. In the near-term scale, natural ecosystem in China would be slightly affected by cli- mate change. However, in mid-term and long-term scales, there would be severely adverse effect, particularly in the east with better water and thermal condition.     

Vulnerability of natural ecosystem in China under regional climate scenarios：An analysis based on eco-geographical regions

Assessment of vulnerability for natural ecosystem to climate change is a hot topic in climate change and ecology,and will support adapting and mitigating climate change. In this study,LPJ model modified according to features of China's natural ecosystems was employed to simulate ecosystem dynamics under A2,B2 and A1B scenarios. Vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was assessed according to the vulnerability assessment model. Based on eco-geographical regions,vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was analyzed. Results suggest that vulnerability for China's natural ecosystems would strengthen in the east and weaken in the west,but the pattern of ecosystem vulnerability would not be altered by climate change,which rises from southeast to northeast gradually. Increase in ecosystem vulnerable degree would mainly concentrate in temperate humid/sub-humid region and warm temperate humid/sub-humid region. Decrease in ecosystem vulnerable degree may emerge in northwestern arid region and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. In the near-term scale,natural ecosystem in China would be slightly affected by climate change. However,in mid-term and long-term scales,there would be severely adverse effect,particularly in the east with better water and thermal condition.     

近55 a新疆净生态系统生产力对气候变化的响应

新疆地处干旱和半干旱气候区,明确其生态系统的碳汇大小及其对气候变化的响应对研究中国干旱区植被碳汇及其对陆地碳平衡的贡献具有重要意义。基于最新地面气象观测数据,利用大气植被相互作用模型AVIM2（Atmosphere-Vegetation Interaction Model 2）,在0.05°×0.05°经纬度空间网格上估算分析了1961-2015年新疆净生态系统生产力（NEP）的时空分布特征及其对气候变化的响应。研究结果表明：近55 a新疆NEP平均值为14.4 gC·m^-2,没有明显变化趋势。空间上看,约40%地区的NEP呈下降趋势,主要分布在天山两麓的城市人口聚集区;而60%地区NEP呈上升走势,其主要分布在新疆昆仑山脉、天山山区和人烟稀少的荒漠地区。新疆NEP对降水量变化更为敏感,气温的变化对NEP的影响并不显著。虽然新疆平均碳汇随着年降水量的变化而在源与汇之间波动,但是从多年平均来看,新疆仍然为碳汇区。     

Imaging vulnerability: the iconography of climate change

This paper explores the iconography of climate change in contemporary climate action campaigns in the UK. I aim to show how sample images are simultaneously scientific denotations of global warming and cultural connotations of danger and vulnerability. I further demonstrate that while similar images are associated with different agendas and geographical visions, they attach to a shared discourse of vulnerability that has Western (colonial) roots. The paper concludes with an overview of possible ways for climate action campaigns to effectively convey their political messages without recycling colonial visions of the world.     

基于DEA模型的我国自然灾害区域脆弱性评价

应用数据包络分析(Data Envelopment Analysis,DEA)模型对我国自然灾害的区域脆弱性水平进行研究,在区域灾害系统理论的组织框架下,从区域自然灾害危险性、区域承灾体暴露性和区域自然灾害损失度三个方面构建了区域自然灾害系统的DEA投入产出模型,并利用模型得出的区域自然灾害成灾效率对区域自然灾害的脆弱性进行模拟反映,对我国自然灾害脆弱性的区域分异特征进行分析。研究发现:我国自然灾害脆弱性的整体水平较高,地域格局为西部中部东部,且脆弱性水平与地区经济水平具有明显的负相关关系,经济发达地区的脆弱性相对较低。     

Foreword to the special issue: climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in the Arctic

The Arctic climate is changing, carrying wide-ranging implications for indigenous and non-indigenous inhabitants, businesses, industry and government across the circumpolar region. The latest scientific assessments indicate that change is happening faster than previously thought, and that the Arctic will continue to experience dramatic climate change in the future. This special edition of Polar Research brings together nine papers on climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in the Arctic, providing important insights on the nature of the risks and opportunities posed by climate change in the circumpolar region, highlighting opportunities for policy response and providing insights on how to conduct effective climate change research with Arctic communities.     

NPP vulnerability of the potential vegetation of China to climate change in the past and future

Using the Integrated Biosphere Simulator, a dynamic vegetation model, this study initially simulated the net primary productivity (NPP) dynamics of China’s potential vegetation in the past 55 years (1961–2015) and in the future 35 years (2016–2050). Then, taking the NPP of the potential vegetation in average climate conditions during 1986–2005 as the basis for evaluation, this study examined whether the potential vegetation adapts to climate change or not. Meanwhile, the degree of inadaptability was evaluated. Finally, the NPP vulnerability of the potential vegetation was evaluated by synthesizing the frequency and degrees of inadaptability to climate change. In the past 55 years, the NPP of desert ecosystems in the south of the Tianshan Mountains and grassland ecosystems in the north of China and in western Tibetan Plateau was prone to the effect of climate change. The NPP of most forest ecosystems was not prone to the influence of climate change. The low NPP vulnerability to climate change of the evergreen broad-leaved and coniferous forests was observed. Furthermore, the NPP of the desert ecosystems in the north of the Tianshan Mountains and grassland ecosystems in the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau also had low vulnerability to climate change. In the next 35 years, the NPP vulnerability to climate change would reduce the forest–steppe in the Songliao Plain, the deciduous broad-leaved forests in the warm temperate zone, and the alpine steppe in the central and western Tibetan Plateau. The NPP vulnerability would significantly increase of the temperate desert in the Junggar Basin and the alpine desert in the Kunlun Mountains. The NPP vulnerability of the subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests would also increase. The area of the regions with increased vulnerability would account for 27.5% of China.