A regional model to assess the hydrological sensitivity of medium size catchments to climate variability

Catchment storage capacity is an important factor in the determination of catchment sensitivity to climate variability. Quantification of catchment sensitivity is in turn important in the regional assessment of the effects of possible climate change. In the present paper, an empirical regional model is proposed that quantifies catchment sensitivity as the ratio of present maximum reservoir storage to catchment storage capacity. Catchment storage capacity is defined theoretically using readily available catchment variables. Present maximum reservoir storage in a catchment, as determined from recession analysis, is expressed as a fraction of catchment storage capacity; the fraction defines catchment sensitivity and depends on storage capacity and annual net precipitation. Average annual conditions for present maximum reservoir storage and average annual net precipitation are used to test the developed model. Although the study used data from only 15 catchments in the Upper Loire region in France, the model proved statistically valid. Storage capacity calculated with the model compares favourably with the baseflow index and a storage index defined in previous research. Values of storage capacity are probable with respect to reported water resources in the area. With the model catchment sensitivity can easily be assessed. Flood or drought prone catchments can be identified as well as a catchment's sensitivity to a catchment-type transition (baseflow versus direct flow dominated catchments). © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

大型储罐抗震能力可靠度评估

本文对大型圆筒形立式储液罐抗震能力可靠性分析中涉及的、随机性影响较大的各变量进行了分析,建立了各随机变量的概率模型。针对大型储罐的震害特点,从3个方面建立了大型储罐抗震能力可靠性分析的极限状态方程,提出了总体可靠性评估办法。通过1个具体的油罐分析表明,本文建立的可靠性概率分析模型能够给出较好的抗震能力评估结果。     

Precipitation water storage capacity in a temperate mixed oak–beech canopy

The storage capacity of a temperate mixed oak–beech stand was investigated as a function of stand density and species composition. Measurements were performed in selected zones delimited by three neighbouring trees. Three independent approaches were compared: (i) a spraying laboratory experiment to estimate the water storage on foliage before and after dripping; (ii) a mechanistic model describing rainfall partitioning within the forest canopy and providing estimates of foliage storage capacities; and (iii) linear regression analyses to evaluate the canopy (foliage + branches) storage capacity using the relationship between throughfall and rainfall. Good agreement was generally observed between the laboratory experiment and the mechanistic model estimates, while estimations from the regression method tended to exceed those from the other approaches. Storage capacity estimates ranged from 0·22 mm to 0·80 mm for pure oak zones, from 0·24 mm to 1·12 mm for mixed zones and from 0·53 mm to 1·17 mm for pure beech zones. The increase of storage capacity with increasing proportion of beech in the canopy resulted from higher beech LAI compared with oak. Similarly, for mixed and pure beech canopies, storage capacity was higher for high density zones than for low density zones as a result of the increase in LAI with increasing local basal area; in contrast, for pure oak, the storage capacity was not related to basal area because of the lower shade‐tolerance of this species compared with beech. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Partitioning of rainfall in a eucalypt forest and pine plantation in southeastern australia: III determination of the canopy storage capacity of a dry sclerophyll eucalypt forest

The canopy storage capacity of a dry sclerophyll eucalypt forest was determined. This required destructive sampling of three major species of trees and development of a water soakage method for the measurement of water holding capacity of all above ground components. The influence of antecedent weather conditions on canopy storage capacity was assessed. It was shown that the interactive effects of leaf area and water holding capacity of all tree components were such that the estimated canopy storage capacity (0-39 mm) was likely to change little except under extreme conditions of drought and rainfall. The effect of species composition on forest canopy storage capacity is also presented. The wetting processes are described and compared with those discussed in other studies. They are shown to be relevant to the estimation of canopy storage capacity in almost any forest.     

Quantifying watershed surface depression storage: determination and application in a hydrologic model

Hydrologic models often require correct estimates of surface macro‐depressional storage to accurately simulate rainfall–runoff processes. Traditionally, depression storage is determined through model calibration or lumped with soil storage components or on an ad hoc basis. This paper investigates a holistic approach for estimating surface depressional storage capacity (DSC) in watersheds using digital elevation models (DEMs). The methodology includes implementing a lumped DSC model to extract geometric properties of storage elements from DEMs of varying grid resolutions and employing a consistency zone criterion to quantify the representative DSC of an isolated watershed. DSC obtained using the consistency zone approach is compared to DSC estimated by “brute force” (BF) optimization method. The BF procedure estimates optimal DSC by calibrating DRAINMOD, a quasi‐process based hydrologic model, with observed streamflow under different climatic conditions. Both methods are applied to determine the DSC for relatively low‐gradient coastal plain watersheds on forested landscape with slopes less than 3%. Results show robustness of the consistency zone approach for estimating depression storage. To test the adequacy of the calculated DSC values obtained, both methods are applied in DRAINMOD to predict the daily watershed flow rates. Comparison between observed and simulated streamflow reveals a marginal difference in performance between BF optimization and consistency zone estimated DSCs during wet periods, but the latter performed relatively better in dry periods. DSC is found to be dependent on seasonal antecedent moisture conditions on surface topography. The new methodology is beneficial in situations where data on depressional storage is unavailable for calibrating models requiring this input parameter. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic risk assessment of liquid storage tanks via a nonlinear surrogate model

A performance‐based earthquake engineering approach is developed for the seismic risk assessment of fixed‐roof atmospheric steel liquid storage tanks. The proposed method is based on a surrogate single‐mass model that consists of elastic beam‐column elements and nonlinear springs. Appropriate component and system‐level damage states are defined, following the identification of commonly observed modes of failure that may occur during an earthquake. Incremental dynamic analysis and simplified cloud are offered as potential approaches to derive the distribution of response parameters given the seismic intensity. A parametric investigation that engages the aforementioned analysis methods is conducted on 3 tanks of varying geometry, considering both anchored and unanchored support conditions. Special attention is paid to the elephant's foot buckling formation, by offering extensive information on its capacity and demand representation within the seismic risk assessment process. Seismic fragility curves are initially extracted for the component‐level damage states, to compare the effect of each analysis approach on the estimated performance. The subsequent generation of system‐level fragility curves reveals the issue of nonsequential damage states, whereby significant damage may abruptly appear without precursory lighter damage states.     

Evaluation of the Glugla method for estimating evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge

Abstract

Estimates of groundwater recharge are often needed for a variety of groundwater resource evaluation purposes. A method for estimating long-term groundwater recharge and actual evapotranspiration not known in the English literature is presented. The method uses long-term average annual precipitation, runoff, potential evaporation, and crop-yield information, and uses empirical parameter curves that depend on soil and crop types to determine long-term average annual groundwater recharge (GWR). The method is tested using historic lysimeter records from 10 lysimeters at Coshocton, Ohio, USA. Considering the coarse information required, the method provides good estimates of groundwater recharge and actual evapotranspiration, and is sensitive to a range of cropping and land-use conditions. Problems with practical application of the technique are mentioned, including the need for further testing using given parameter curves, and for incorporating parameters that describe current farming practices and other land uses. The method can be used for urban conditions, and can be incorporated into a GIS framework for rapid, large-area, spatially-distributed estimations of GWR. An example application of the method is given.     

Evaluation of 2D models for the prediction of surface depression storage using realistic reference values

Depression storage (DS) is the maximum storage of precipitation and runoff in the soil surface at a given slope. The DS is determined by soil roughness that in agricultural soils is largely affected by tillage. The direct measurement of DS is not straightforward because of the natural permeability of the soil. Therefore, DS has generally been estimated from 2D/3D empirical relationships and numerical algorithms based on roughness indexes and height measurements of the soil surface, respectively. The objective of this work was to evaluate the performance of some 2D models for DS, using direct and reliable measurements of DS in an agricultural soil as reference values. The study was carried out in experimental microplots where DS was measured in six situations resulting from the combination of three types of tillage carried out parallel and perpendicular to the main slope. Those data were used as reference to evaluate four empirical models and a numerical method. Longitudinal altitudinal profiles of the relief were obtained by a laser profilometer. Infiltration measurements were carried out before and after tillage. The DS was largely affected by tillage and its direction. Highest values of DS are found on rougher surfaces mainly when macroforms cut off the dominant slope. The empirical models had a limited performance while the numerical method was the most effective, even so, with an important variability. In addition, a correct hydrological management should take into account that each type of soil tillage affects infiltration rate differently. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

River networks system changes and its impact on storage and flood control capacity under rapid urbanization

Urbanization significantly affects both the drainage network structure and the storage capacity of river channels in lowland plain river networks. The Yangtze River Delta region has experienced a rapid and profound urbanization of any region worldwide in the past 30 years. The southeast Yinfeng plain in the Yangtze River Delta region was used as the study area to assess changes in the river network structure from 1990 to 2010, using river feature parameter analyses and GIS spatial analysis. The elastic method was adopted to analyse river network pattern response to both urbanization and climate change, and the rates at which these factors contributed to changes in the river network pattern were investigated. Changes in the storage capacity and flood control capacity of the channel network over the past 21 years were then analysed. The results indicated that: (1) the number of river networks, and the complexity of the river network spatial structures were reduced, the drainage density decreased by 20%, the water surface ratio by 36%, the river area–length ratio by nearly 18% and the fractal dimension of the river networks by 4.5%; (2) the river network changes were due more to human activities than to climate change in this study period. Limited changes occurred in the structure of the river system, as indicated by an urbanization variability rate of less than 20% and precipitation variability range of ?5% to ?15%, although the stream structure gradually decreased with increasing urbanization variability; and (3) the storage capacity of the main river network decreased earlier (1990–2003) and was restored later (2003–2010) because of dredging and widening activities. In addition, the number of lower‐order rivers decreased, which resulted in significant decreases in the storage and flood control capacities of the river networks. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of leaf distribution pattern on the interception storage capacity of leaf litter under simulated rainfall conditions

Rainwater interception by leaf litter is an important part of forest hydrological processes. The objective of this study was to investigate the interception storage capacity (ISC) of woodland leaf litter for three leaf distribution patterns, one flow path, two flow paths, and three flow paths, manually simulated via one-by-one leaf connection in the top leaf litter layer. A random pattern served as the control. Three different slopes (0°, 5° and 25°, representing flat, gentle and steep slopes, respectively) and two contrasting leaf litters (needle-leaf litter, represented by P. massoniana leaves, and broad-leaf litter, represented by C. camphora leaves) with a biomass of 0.5 kg/m² per unit area were applied, at a rainfall intensity of 50 mm/h. Results suggested that leaf distribution pattern greatly impacts litter drainage and hence affects leaf litter ISC. The delaying capacity of litter drainage initiation and ISC of broad-leaf litter were higher than those of needle-leaf litter under the same slope conditions. The maximum ISC (C_max) and minimum ISC (C_min) of leaf litter at flat and gentle slopes were higher than those at steep slope. C_min of the broad-leaf litter was two times higher than that of needle-leaf litter on average. When raindrops reached the litter layer, some were temporarily intercepted by the top litter layer while others infiltrated leaf litter sublayer along leaf edges, and in the process, some rainwater flowed through litter layer and contributed to lateral litter drainage along the potential flow path formed by leaves. The lateral litter drainage of broad-leaf litter was higher than that of needle-leaf litter, and the partitioning of rainwater into lateral litter drainage increased with increases in slope. The difference in leaf litter C_max among different slopes and leaf shapes decreased with flow path increasing. Therefore, leaf distribution pattern notably impact leaf litter ISC, which is similar to leaf shape and slope impacts. On inclined slopes, avoiding leaf accumulation to form flow path is helpful for improving ISC.     

Prediction of regional-scale groundwater recharge and nitrate storage in the vadose zone: A comparison between a global model and a regional model

Extensive nitrogen loads at the soil surface exceed plant uptake and soil biochemical capacity, and therefore lead to nitrogen accumulation in the deep vadose zone. Studies have shown that stored nitrogen in the vadose zone can eventually reach the water table and affect the quality of groundwater resources. Recently, global scale models have been implemented to quantify nitrate storage and nitrate travel time in the vadose zone. These global models are simplistic and relatively easy to implement and therefore facilitate analysis of the considered transport processes at a regional scale with no further requirements. However, the suitability of applying these models at a regional scale has not been tested. Here, we evaluate, for the first time, the performance and utility of global scale models at the regional scale. Applied to the Loess Plateau of China, we compare estimates of groundwater recharge and nitrate storage derived from global scale models with results from a regional scale approach utilizing the Richards and advection-dispersion equations. The estimated nitrate storage was compared to nitrate observations collected in the deep vadose zone (>50 m) at five sites across the Loess Plateau. Although both models predict similar spatial patterns of nitrate storage, the recharge fluxes were three times smaller and the nitrate storage was two times higher compared with the regional model. The results suggest that global scale models are a potentially useful screening tool, but require refinement for local scale applications.     

The applicability of a parsimonious model for local and regional prediction of runoff

Abstract

The Hydrological Recursive Model (HRM), a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, was applied for local and regional simulation of hourly discharges in the transnational Alzette River basin (Luxembourg-France-Belgium). The model was calibrated for a range of various sub-basins with a view to analysing its ability to reproduce the variability of basin responses during flood generation. The regionalization of the model parameters was obtained by fitting simultaneously the runoff series of calibration sub-basins after their spatial discretization in lithological contrasting isochronal zones. The runoff simulations of the model agreed well with the recorded runoff series. Significant correlations with some basin characteristics and, noticeably, the permeability of geological formations, could be found for two of the four free model parameters. The goodness of fit for runoff predictions using the derived regional parameter set was generally satisfactory, particularly for the statistical characteristics of streamflow. A more physically-based modelling approach, or at least an explicit treatment of quick surface runoff, is expected to give better results for high peak discharge.     

Incorporating topographic variability into a simple regional snowmelt model

General circulation models (GCMs), or stand‐alone models that are forced by the output from GCMs, are increasingly being used to simulate the interactions between snow cover, snowmelt, climate and water resources. The variation in snowpack extent, and hence albedo, through time in a cell is likely to be substantial, especially in mid‐latitude mountainous regions. As a consequence, the energy budget simulation by a GCM relies on a realistic representation of snowpack extent. Similarly, from a water resource perspective, the spatial extent of the pack is key in predicting meltwater discharges into rivers. In this paper a simple computationally efficient regional snow model has been developed, which is based on a degree‐day approach and simulates the fraction of the model domain covered by snow, the spatially averaged melt rate and the mean snowpack depth. Computational efficiency is achieved through a novel spatial averaging procedure, which relies on the assumptions that precipitation and temperature scale linearly with elevation and that the distribution of elevations in the domain can be modelled by a continuous function. The resulting spatially averaged model is compared with both observations of the duration of snow cover throughout Austria and with results from a distributed model based on the same underlying assumptions but applied at a fine spatial resolution. The new spatially averaged model successfully simulated the seasonal snow duration observations and reproduced the daily dynamics of snow cover extent, the spatially averaged melt rate and mean pack depth simulated by the distributed model. It, therefore, offers a computationally efficient and easily applied alternative to the current crop of regional snow models. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

三峡水库175 m试验性蓄水期调度运行对洞庭湖蓄水量变化的影响

长江干流与洞庭湖存在复杂的并联型分汇关系,当三峡水库调度改变长江径流过程时,会引起洞庭湖年内槽蓄量的变化,对于洞庭湖地区防洪、水资源配置和水环境保护产生显著的影响.本文建立了枝城至螺山站的荆江-洞庭湖水流模型,利用2008-2017年的三峡水库实际调度日数据,分析有、无三峡水库调度两种情况下洞庭湖槽蓄量的变化过程,同时利用建库前和近期的水位流量关系反映河道过流能力,分析了河道调整的影响.结果表明:由河道调整引起的槽蓄量变化在汛前消落期、汛期、汛末蓄水期和枯水期分别为-3.06%、0.12%、-0.01%和-13.31%.有三峡水库影响情况下,汛前消落期由于荆江"三口"进入洞庭湖的多年平均总径流增加23.94%,洞庭湖出口处城陵矶多年平均水位升高0.53 m,阻碍了洞庭湖出流,洞庭湖多年平均槽蓄量增长13.30%;汛期由于荆江"三口"分流量减少3.54%,城陵矶水位降低0.02 m导致出湖流量增多,因此洞庭湖多年平均槽蓄量减少0.20%;在汛末蓄水期,荆江"三口"分入洞庭湖的多年平均总径流量减少37.18%,城陵矶多年平均水位降低1.33 m,导致出湖流量增多,因而洞庭湖多年平均槽蓄量减少27.74%;在枯水期,荆江"三口"多年平均总径流量增加5.61%,城陵矶多年平均水位上升0.07 m,最终洞庭湖多年平均枯期槽蓄量增加2.96%.     

既有桥梁承载能力评估方法

既有桥梁结构承载能力的评估涉及桥梁状态评定、养护与管理、维修与加固等，不仅是桥梁工程师的基本职责，也是广大业主所非常关心的。本文指出了桥梁评估与设计的基本区别，介绍了桥梁承载力评估的静力方法，分析了中美两国桥梁评估规范的异同。接着提出了一套既有桥梁结构承载能力评估的动力方法，该方法结合现场环境振动试验和有限元分析，具有显著的优点。文中采用2个典型桥例，分析了不同评估方法的结果与结论。最后依据发展要求，讨论了进一步研究的主要方向。     

Quantifying sediment storage in a high alpine valley (Turtmanntal,Switzerland)

The determination of sediment storage is a critical parameter in sediment budget analyses. But, in many sediment budget studies the quantification of magnitude and time‐scale of sediment storage is still the weakest part and often relies on crude estimations only, especially in large drainage basins (>100 km²). We present a new approach to storage quantification in a meso‐scale alpine catchment of the Swiss Alps (Turtmann Valley, 110 km²). The quantification of depositional volumes was performed by combining geophysical surveys and geographic information system (GIS) modelling techniques. Mean thickness values of each landform type calculated from these data was used to estimate the sediment volume in the hanging valleys and the trough slopes. Sediment volume of the remaining subsystems was determined by modelling an assumed parabolic bedrock surface using digital elevation model (DEM) data. A total sediment volume of 781·3×10⁶–1005·7×10⁶ m³ is deposited in the Turtmann Valley. Over 60% of this volume is stored in the 13 hanging valleys. Moraine landforms contain over 60% of the deposits in the hanging valleys followed by sediment stored on slopes (20%) and rock glaciers (15%). For the first time, a detailed quantification of different storage types was achieved in a catchment of this size. Sediment volumes have been used to calculate mean denudation rates for the different processes ranging from 0·1 to 2·6 mm/a based on a time span of 10 ka. As the quantification approach includes a number of assumptions and various sources of error the values given represent the order of magnitude of sediment storage that has to be expected in a catchment of this size. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A multi‐storage groundwater concept for the SWAT model to emphasize nonlinear groundwater dynamics in lowland catchments

Hydrological models are useful tools to analyze present and future conditions of water quantity and quality. The integrated modelling of water and nutrients needs an adequate representation of the different discharge components. In common with many lowlands, groundwater contribution to the discharge in the North German lowlands is a key factor for a reasonable representation of the water balance, especially in low flow periods. Several studies revealed that the widely used Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model performs poorly for low flow periods. This paper deals with the extension of the groundwater module of the SWAT model to enhance low flow representation. The current two‐storage concept of SWAT was further developed to a three‐storage concept. This was realized due to modification of the groundwater module by splitting the active groundwater storage into a fast and a slow contributing aquifer. The results of this study show that the groundwater module with three storages leads to a good prediction of the overall discharge especially for the recession limbs and the low flow periods. The improved performance is reflected in the signature measures for the mid‐segment (percent bias ?2.4% vs ?15.9%) and the low segment (percent bias 14.8% vs 46.8%) of the flow duration curve. The three‐storage groundwater module is more process oriented than the original version due to the introduction of a fast and a slow groundwater flow component. The three‐storage version includes a modular approach, because groundwater storages can be activated or deactivated independently for subbasin and hydrological response unit level. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Delineation of reservoirs using remote sensing and their storage estimate: an example of the Yellow River basin,China

Reservoirs are an integral component of water resources planning and management. Periodic and accurate assessment of the water storage change in reservoirs is an extraordinarily important aspect for better watershed management and water resources development. In view of the shortcomings of conventional approaches in locating reservoirs' spatial location and quantifying their storage, the remote sensing technique has several advantages, either for a single reservoir or for a group of reservoirs. The satellite‐based remote sensing data, encompassing spatial, spectral and temporal attributes, can provide high‐resolution synoptic and repetitive information with short time intervals on a large scale. Using remote sensing images in conjunction with Google Earth and field check of representative reservoirs, the spatial distribution of constructed reservoirs in the Yellow River basin was delineated, and their storage volume and the residence time of the stored water were estimated. The results showed that 2816 reservoirs were extracted from the images, accounting for 89·5% of the registered total. All large‐ and medium‐sized reservoirs were extracted while small reservoirs may not be extracted due to coarse resolution and cloud‐cover shadows. An empirical relationship between the extracted water surface area and the compiled storage capacity of representative reservoirs was developed. The water storage capacity was estimated to be 66·71 km³, about 92·7% of the total storage capacity reported by the authority. Furthermore, the basin was divided into 10 sub‐basins upon which the water's residence time was analysed. The water discharge in the basin has been greatly regulated. The residence time has surged to 3·97 years in recent years, ranking the Yellow River in the top three of the list in terms of residence time and flow regulation among large river systems in the world. It is expected that it will be further extended in future owing to decreasing water discharge and increasing reservoir storage capacity. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

现有建筑抗震能力评估

本文提出了个一个用超强率求建筑物地震破坏概率的方法,并评估了现有建筑的抗震能力。为进一步分析地震灾害,文中给出了现有建筑中典型建筑的地震屈服加速度和对应于不同破坏状态的延性率中值,最后讨论了设防中的其他问题并提出了改进抗震设计的建议。     

The development of a regional geomagnetic daily variation model using neural networks

Global and regional geomagnetic field models give the components of the geomagnetic field as functions of position and epoch; most utilise a polynomial or Fourier series to map the input variables to the geomagnetic field values. The only temporal variation generally catered for in these models is the long term secular variation. However, there is an increasing need amongst certain users for models able to provide shorter term temporal variations, such as the geomagnetic daily variation. In this study, for the first time, artificial neural networks (ANNs) are utilised to develop a geomagnetic daily variation model. The model developed is for the southern African region; however, the method used could be applied to any other region or even globally. Besides local time and latitude, input variables considered in the daily variation model are season, sunspot number, and degree of geomagnetic activity. The ANN modelling of the geomagnetic daily variation is found to give results very similar to those obtained by the synthesis of harmonic coefficients which have been computed by the more traditional harmonic analysis of the daily variation.