Lower-crustal rifting in the Rukwa Graben, East Africa

An M_w 5.9 earthquake occurred in the Lake Rukwa rift, Tanzania, on 1994 August 18, and was well recorded by 20 broad-band seismic stations at distances of 160 to 800 km and 21 broad-band stations at teleseismic distances. The regional and teleseismic waveforms have been used to investigate the source characteristics of the main shock, and also to locate aftershocks that occurred within three weeks of the main shock. Teleseismic body-wave modelling yields the following source parameters for the main shock: source depth of 25 ± 2 km, a normal fault orientation, with a horizontal tension axis striking NE-SW and an almost vertical pressure axis (Nodal Plane I: strike 126°–142°, dip 63°–66°, and rake 280°–290°; Nodal Plane II: strike 273°–289°, dip 28°–31°, and rake 235°–245°), a scalar moment of 4.1 times 10¹⁷ N m, and a 2 s impulsive source time function. Four of the largest aftershocks also nucleated at depths of 25 km, as deduced from regional sPmp–Pmp times. The nodal planes are broadly consistent with the orientation of both the Lupa and Ufipa faults, which bound the Rukwa rift to the northeast and southwest, respectively. The rupture radius of the main shock, assuming a circular fault, is estimated to be 4 km with a corresponding stress drop of 6.5 MPa. Published estimates of crustal thickness beneath the Rukwa rift indicate that the foci of the main shock and aftershocks lie at least 10 km above the Moho. The presence of lower-crustal seismicity beneath the Rukwa rift suggests that the pre-rift thermal structure of the rifted crust has not been strongly modified by the rifting, at least to depths of 25 km.     

Coseismic slip model of the 2007 August Pisco earthquake (Peru) as constrained by Wide Swath radar observations

The Pisco earthquake ( M _w 8.0; 2007 August 15) occurred offshore of Peru's southern coast at the subduction interface between the Nazca and South American plates. It ruptured a previously identified seismic gap along the Peruvian margin. We use Wide Swath InSAR observations acquired by the Envisat satellite in descending and ascending orbits to constrain coseismic slip distribution of this subduction earthquake. The data show movement of the coastal regions by as much as 85 cm in the line-of-sight of the satellite. Distributed-slip model indicates that the coseismic slip reaches values of about 5.5 m at a depth of ∼18–20 km. The slip is confined to less than 40 km depth, with most of the moment release located on the shallow parts of the interface above 30 km depth. The region with maximum coseismic slip in the InSAR model is located offshore, close to the seismic moment centroid location. The geodetic estimate of seismic moment is 1.23 × 10²¹ Nm ( M _w 8.06), consistent with seismic estimates. The slip model inferred from the InSAR observations suggests that the Pisco earthquake ruptured only a portion of the seismic gap zone in Peru between 13.5° S and 14.5° S, hence there is still a significant seismic gap to the south of the 2007 event that has not experienced a large earthquake since at least 1687.     

Likelihood analysis of earthquake catalogues

We apply several classes of stochastic multidimensional models to statistical analysis of earthquake catalogues using likelihood methods. We investigate the importance of including different earthquake parameters in the model: epicentral coordinates, hypocentral depth, time limits for interearthquake interaction, and especially spatial distribution of earthquakes as well as spatial aftershock patterns. Results of this study combined with other investigations, suggest that most distributions controlling earthquake interaction have a fractal or scale-invariant form. Developed models are used for statistical analysis of several earthquake catalogues to evaluate parameters of earthquake occurrence. These parameters are shown to be similar for shallow earthquakes of different magnitude ranges and seismogenic regions, confirming self-similarity of the earthquake process. Whereas intermediate earthquakes seem to emulate the pattern of shallow earthquake occurrence, albeit at a much smaller aftershock rate, deep earthquakes differ significantly in their properties. Predictability of standard shallow earthquake catalogues has been analysed; we present evidence that for the best available catalogues the predictability is close to 10 bits per earthquake. Several synthetic earthquake catalogues have been created and processed through the likelihood inversion scheme. The results from likelihood analysis of these catalogues confirm our approach.     

Precursory seismic quiescence in the Mudurnu Valley, North Anatolian fault zone, Turkey

The seismicity rate in the Mudurnu Valley of Turkey was studied using an earthquake catalogue that reports events homogeneously down to magnitude 2.3 for the years 1985–1989, and covers the area between latitudes 40.2° and 41.0°N, and longitudes 30.0° and 31.5°E. During this period the only two main shocks, M = 4.0 and M = 4.3, occurred on 1988 September 6 and 1988 December 9 within about 30km of each other. A highly significant seismic quiescence is evident in the area surrounding these main shocks, while the seismicity rate in the rest of the area covered by the catalogue remains constant. the quiescence becomes more pronounced the smaller the area around the main shocks that is studied. the smallest areas that can be studied contain about 60 earthquakes and have dimensions of approximately 25km on each side. the decreases in seismicity rates are 50–80 per cent depending on the volume and period used for defining the quiescence. the quiescence started in 1988 January and lasted about seven months, with approximately 4.5 months of normal activity separating it from the main shock of December. the precursor time of 12 months for an M = 4.3 main shock is similar to those observed in California. It is concluded that it is possible to resolve precursory quiescence before moderate and large earthquakes in the Mudurnu area with the existing seismograph network.     

The first and third asymptotic distributions of extremes as applied to the seismic source regions of India and adjacent areas

The seismic source regions are identified on the basis of spatial and temporal distributions of shocks (1900–1989), recurrence relations and the tectonic architecture of the Indian subcontinent and adjoining areas. The probable occurrence of the maximum magnitude earthquake is estimated using the theory of extreme values of Gumbel. The parameters of the first and third asymptotic distributions of extremes and their uncertainty values are computed for the seven identified seismic source regions of India and adjacent areas. The third-type distribution curve is preferable to the first type in all the regions, as revealed by the χ² test. The results of the third asymptotic distribution indicate the upper bound to earthquake magnitude w is equal to 8.94 ± 0.21 for Assam, 8.56 ± 0.29 for Bihar-Nepal, 8.43 ± 0.10 for Kangra, 8.97 ± 0.27 for Hindukush, 7.61 ± 0.24 for Pakistan-Cutch, 7.34 ± 0.12 for Koyna and 8.98 ± 0.27 for Andaman Sea seismic source regions. The predicted most probable largest earthquake magnitude is computed for return periods of 10, 20, 50, 75 and 100 yr in each source region.     

On the latitude of the Sq(H) focus at sunspot minimum

Summary. The latitude of the Sq ( H ) focus along the 0° longitude meridian in the northern hemisphere has been determined for all the quiet days, as determined from the aa indices, for the sunspot minimum years 1963–64–65. It is shown that: (a) most of the large variability of the focus latitude is due to the effect of a superposed northward magnetic field that is present on AQDs and which tends to move the apparent focus latitude poleward in the northern hemisphere, and (b) a smaller equatorward motion is caused by the negative AQD events that occur in the 0830–1330 LT range. When these two classes of days are removed from the data set, the focus latitude is found to be completely contained within the range 36°-48° for the months March-October
with an average value of 41.5 ± 2.3, whilst in winter the range is larger with an average value of 36.7 ± 3.4. However, since the magnitude of the superposed northward field is longitude-dependent, it may be present even on days not classed as AQDs. It is shown that much of the variability in the focus latitude of the normal days along the 0° longitude meridian is caused by variations in the amplitude of the superposed northward field.     

Focal mechanisms of recent earthquakes in the Southern Korean Peninsula

We evaluate the stress field in and around the southern Korean Peninsula with focal mechanism solutions, using the data collected from 71 earthquakes ( M_L = 1.9–5.2) between 1999 and 2004. For this, the hypocentres were relocated and well-constrained fault plane solutions were obtained from the data set of 1270 clear P -wave polarities and 46 SH / P amplitude ratios. The focal mechanism solutions indicate that the prevailing faulting types in South Korea are strike-slip-dominant-oblique-slip faultings with minor reverse-slip component. The maximum principal stresses (σ₁) estimated from fault-slip inversion analysis of the focal mechanism solutions show a similar orientation with E–W trend (269°–275°) and low-angle plunge (10°–25°) for all tectonic provinces in South Korea, consistent with the E–W trending maximum horizontal stress (σ_Hmax) of the Amurian microplate reported from in situ stress measurements and earthquake focal mechanisms. The directions of the intermediate (σ₂) and minimum (σ₃) principal stresses of the Gyeongsang Basin are, however, about 90 deg off from those of the other tectonic provinces on a common σ₂–σ₃ plane, suggesting a permutation of σ₂ and σ₃. Our results incorporated with those from the kinematic studies of the Quaternary faults imply that NNW- to NE-striking faults (dextral strike-slip or oblique-slip with a reverse-slip component) are highly likely to generate earthquakes in South Korea.     

Simulating a seismic series using geostatistical and stochastic methods: application to the seismic series in the Alborán Sea (1997 June 24–?)

Seismic series can be taken as examples of correlated unstationary sets of time-stochastic sequences. We investigate the possibility of estimating what is most probable to occur subsequently, if we know the events that have occurred up to a given moment.
The stochastic methods can be used with data of the seismic series, irrespective of their genesis and origin. Using three stochastic methods, namely (1) simulating the likelihood of occurrence by conditional geostatistical simulation; (2) developing a stochastic analysis of the energy release by means of energy packages; and (3) calculating the occurrence time of the most probable next earthquake, we were able to simulate the occurrence of earthquakes that took place during the Alborán Sea seismic series (1997–1998).
We conclude that it is possible to set limits on the time of occurrence and energy release, understood as the magnitude of the most probable earthquake, during the development of a seismic sequence and prior to the actual occurrence of the earthquake.     

Simulations of strong ground motion for earthquakes in the Mexicali–Imperial Valley region

Summary. In this paper computer modelling is used to test simple approximations for simulating strong ground motions for moderate and large earthquakes in the Mexicali–Imperial Valley region. Initially, we represent an earthquake rupture process as a series of many independent small earthquakes distributed in a somewhat random manner in both space and time along the rupture surface. By summing real seismograms for small earthquakes (used as empirical Green's functions), strong ground motions at specific sites near a fault are calculated. Alternatively, theoretical Green's functions that include frequencies up to 20 Hz are used in essentially similar simulations. The model uses random numbers to emulate some of the non-deterministic irregularities associated with real earthquakes, due either to complexities in the rupture process itself and/or strong variations in the material properties of the medium. Simulations of the 1980 June 9 Victoria, Baja California earthquake ( M _L= 6.1) approximately agree with the duration of shaking, the maximum ground acceleration, and the frequency content of strong ground motion records obtained at distances of up to 35 km for this moderate earthquake. In the initial stages of modelling we do not introduce any scaling of spectral shape with magnitude, in order to see at what stage the data require it. Surprisingly, such scaling is not critical in going from M = 4–5 events to the M = 6.1 Victoria earthquake. However, it is clearly required by the El Centro accelerogram for the Imperial Valley 1940 earthquake, which had a much higher moment ( Ms ∼ 7). We derive the spectral modification function for this event. The resulting model for this magnitude ∼ 7 earthquake is then used to predict the ground motions at short distances from the fault. Predicted peak horizontal accelerations for the M ∼ 7 event are about 25–50 per cent higher than those observed for the M = 6.1 Victoria event.     

Effects of weathering on single-domain magnetite in Early Pliocene marine marls

Rock magnetic parameters are often used to recognize variations in the original magnetic mineralogy and for normalizing purposes in palaeointensity studies. Incipient weathering, however, is shown to have a profound but partly reversible influence on the rock magnetic properties of the marls of the Early Pliocene Trubi formation in southern Sicily (Italy). The remanence in the marls resides in single-domain (SD) magnetite grains, but the remanent coercive force (H_cr) shows a strong variation and most values observed are anomalously high ( H_cr) range 36–188 mT).
The enhanced coercivities are attributed to stress in the magnetite grains induced by surface oxidation at low temperature. Upon heating to 150 °C a reduction of coercivities occurs that can be explained by a stress reduction as a result of a reduction of Fe^2- gradient due to a higher diffusion rate at elevated temperature. After heating to 150 °C, coercivities are quite uniform throughout the outcrop and the values are characteristic of SD magnetite (H_cr range 30–38 mT). The bulk susceptibility increases by 4–24 per cent, and the isothermal remanent magnetization (IRM) decreases by 5–11 per cent. The increase in anhysteretic remanent magnetization (ARM) is large: 20–242 per cent. The magnitude of the changes is related to the degree of weathering.
Another effect of heating the marl samples to 150 °C is a substantial reduction of the coercivities of the secondary overprint in the natural remanent magnetization. After heating. separation of the secondary and primary components by alternating-field demagnetization is more efficient. The usual difficulties of thermal demagnetization above 300 °C may thus be avoided by a combination of moderate heating to 150 °C and subsequent alternating-field demagnetization.     

Seismic risk in southern Europe through to India examined using Gumbel's third distribution of extreme values

Summary. A technique is described for the analysis of seismicity using Gumbel's third asymptotic distribution of extreme values. Seismicity of southern Europe through to India, nominally for the period 1900–74, is subdivided in a cellular manner, without recourse to tectonic discrimination between regions, and a covariance analysis on the three parameters of Gumbel's distribution is performed for each cell of seismicity. The results indicate that the upper bound to the magnitude of earthquake occurrence is often uncertain although it is discernible, while curvature of the earthquake occurrence distributions is usually established. Uncertainties in the forecasts of largest earthquakes, with a return period of 75 yr, are distinctly improved by taking into account the large and negative covariance which is measured between the curvature and upper bound to earthquake magnitude for the observed seismicity. These results are then used to map seismic risk for southern Europe through to India.     

Aseismic fault movement before the 1995 Kobe earthquake detected by a GPS survey: implication for preseismic stress localization?

By inversion analysis of the baseline changes and horizontal displacements observed with GPS (Global Positioning System) during 1990–1994, a high-angle reverse fault was detected in the Shikoku-Kinki region, southwest Japan. The active blind fault is characterized by reverse dip-slip (0.7±0.2  m yr⁻¹ within a layer 17–26  km deep) with a length of 208±5  km, a (down-dip) width of 9±2  km, a dip-angle of 51°±2° and a strike direction of 40°±2° (NE). Evidence from the geological investigation of subfaults close to the southwestern portion of the fault, two historical earthquakes ( M _L=7.0, 1789 and 6.4, 1955) near the centre of the fault, and an additional inversion analysis of the baseline changes recorded by the nationwide permanent GPS array from 18 January to 31 December 1995 partially demonstrates the existence of the fault, and suggests that it might be a reactivation of a pre-existing fault in this region. The fact that hardly any earthquakes ( M _L>2.0) occurred at depth on the inferred fault plane suggests that the fault activity was largely aseismic. Based on the parameters of the blind fault estimated in this study, we evaluated stress changes in this region. It is found that shear stress concentrated and increased by up to 2.1 bar yr⁻¹ at a depth of about 20  km around the epicentral area of the 1995 January 17  Kobe earthquake ( M _L=7.2, Japan), and that the earthquake hypocentre received a Coulomb failure stress of about 5.6 bar yr⁻¹ during 1990–1994. The results suggest that the 1995  Kobe earthquake could have been induced or triggered by aseismic fault movement.     

Seismicity and seismic gap in the Lesser Antilles arc and earthquake hazard in Guadeloupe

Summary. A seismic study of the Lesser Antilles arc has been carried out, first for the period 1950–1978, for which we can use local seismic networks to draw maps of instrumental seismicity, then for the period 1530–1950, for which we have catalogues of felt earthquakes. The striking feature of the spatial distribution of foci is the cluster of epicentres in the northern half of the arc; all large earthquakes ( M > 7.5) are located north of 14° latitude. Seismicity cross-sections through the arc show a variable dipping subduction zone along the arc; the deep seismic zone is steeper in the centre of the arc than on the extremity.
The time-space diagram for historical seismicity, and the evidence of a seismic gap at the east of Guadeloupe lead us to consider the northern half arc as a likely site for a large earthquake in the near future.
The seismic slip rate calculated from all major earthquakes since 1530 is of much greater value than that obtained from recent plate tectonic models, suggesting that the recurrence rate of earthquakes is more than many hundreds of years with a possible aseismic creep.     

Modelling the effect of atmospheric pressure variations on gravity

Summary. The 1973 Hawaii earthquake occurred north of Hilo, at a depth of 40 to 50km. The location was beneath the east flank of Mauna Kea, a volcano dormant historically, but active within the last 4000 yr. Aftershocks were restricted to a depth of 55–35km. The event and its aftershock sequence are located in an area not normally associated with the seismicity of the Mauna Loa and Kilauea calderas. The earthquake was a double event, the epicentres trending NE-SW. The events were of similar size and faulting mechanism. The fault plane solutions obtained by seismic waveform analysis are a strike-slip fault striking EW and dipping 55° S, the auxiliary plane a NS vertical plane with a faulting plunge of 35°. The axis of maximum compressive stress is aligned with the direction of the gravity gradient associated with the island of Hawaii. The fault plane striking EW parallels a surface feature, the Mauna Kea east rift zone. The earthquakes were clearly not associated with volcanic activity normally associated with Mauna Loa and Kilauea and may indicate a deep seated prelude to a resumption of activity at Mauna Kea.     

Rayleigh-wave amplitudes from earthquakes in the range 0–150°

Summary . Vertical component Rayleigh-wave amplitudes from 1461 shallow earthquakes recorded in the distance range 0–150° are analysed to separate the effects of earthquake size, epicentral distance (Δ) and recording station.
The estimated decay of amplitude with distance has the form of a theoretical curve for the decay of Rayleigh waves with distance if the assumption is made that the decay due to dispersion for the data analysed is that of an Airy phase. Writing the decay due to anelastic attenuation as exp (- k Δ), k is estimated to be 0.676/rad over the whole range of distance. If the distance effects are represented by a straight line of the form h log Δ+ constant, h is estimated to be 1.15. The calibration function for computing M _s derived from the estimated distance effects is very similar to that of Marshall & Basham.
Station effects on Rayleigh-wave amplitudes though statistically significant are small, and can probably be ignored in the computation of M _s.
Comparing the estimated surface-wave magnitudes (earthquake size) obtained in this study with the long and short period body-wave magnitudes ( m ^LP_b and m ^SP_b respectively) obtained by Booth, Marshall & Young for the same earthquake shows that m ^LP_b is about equal to M _s over the magnitude range of interest (˜4.0–7.0). The m ^LP_b and M_s relationship shows that the greater the long-period energy radiated by an earthquake the smaller proportionately is the short-period energy.     

Microseismicity and faulting geometry in the Gulf of Corinth (Greece)

During the summer of 1993, a network of seismological stations was installed over a period of 7 weeks around the eastern Gulf of Corinth where a sequence of strong earthquakes occurred during 1981. Seismicity lies between the Alepohori fault dipping north and the Kaparelli fault dipping south and is related to both of these antithetic faults. Focal mechanisms show normal faulting with the active fault plane dipping at about 45° for both faults. The aftershocks of the 1981 earthquake sequence recorded by King et al . (1985 ) were processed again and show similar results. In contrast, the observations collected near the western end of the Gulf of Corinth during an experiment conducted in 1991 ( Rigo et al . 1996 ), and during the aftershock studies of the 1992 Galaxidi and the 1995 Aigion earthquakes ( Hatzfeld et al . 1996 ; Bernard et al . 1997 ) show seismicity dipping at a very low angle (about 15°) northwards and normal faulting mechanisms with the active fault plane dipping northwards at about 30°. We suggest that the 8–12 km deep seismicity in the west is probably related to the seismic–aseismic transition and not to a possible almost horizontal active fault dipping north as previously proposed. The difference in the seismicity and focal mechanisms between east and west of the Gulf could be related to the difference in the recent extension rate between the western Gulf of Corinth and the eastern Gulf of Corinth, which rotated the faults dipping originally at 45° (as in the east of the Gulf) to 30° (as in the west of the Gulf).     

Seismic quiescence before the M 7, 1988, Spitak earthquake, Armenia

A detailed analysis of the 35  yr of seismicity between 1962 and 1997 using a gridding technique shows that the M 7, Spitak earthquake of 1988 December 7 was preceded by a quiescence anomaly that started at approximately 1984±0.5, and lasted about 5±0.5  yr, up to the main shock. This quiescence anomaly had a radius of about 20±3  km, estimated from circular areas with 75 per cent rate decrease, centred at the point of maximum significance of the anomaly. The quiescence was clearly present in the aftershock volume during the 5  yr before the 1988 main shock, but its statistically strongest expression was located 30  km NW of the epicentre. This anomaly fulfills the association rules between precursory quiescence anomalies and main shocks, even for a tight definition, and is therefore proposed as a case of precursory quiescence. The largest value of the standard deviate Z , found by random selection of samples by gridding, was Z =14 for a time window of T _w=3  yr, using a sample size of N =300 events. This makes this anomaly the strongest observed so far, and it is the first documented in an environment of continental collision. There are no false alarms exceeding in significance the precursor. The Armenian earthquake catalogue used for this study had 4600 earthquakes with M ≥ M _min=2.2 in the area bounded by 39.5° to 42°N/42.5° to 47°E. From the point of view of homogeneous reporting this is the best catalogue we have analysed so far. The limits of the data used and the density of the grid are dictated by the data, and have no influence on the results. The choice of free parameters does not influence the results significantly within the following limits: 100≤ N ≤500, 2≤ T _w≤7, 2.2≤ M _min≤2.8.     

Coseismic deformation revealed by inversion of strong motion and GPS data: the 2003 Chengkung earthquake in eastern Taiwan

A moderate earthquake of   M _w= 6.8  occurred on 2003 December 10. It ruptured the Chihshang Fault in eastern Taiwan which is the most active segment of the Longitudinal fault as a plate suture fault between the Luzon arc of the Philippine Sea plate and the Eurasian plate. The largest coseismic displacements were 13 cm (horizontal) and 26 cm (vertical). We analyse 40 strong motion and 91 GPS data to model the fault geometry and coseismic dislocations. The most realistic shape of the Chihshang fault surface is listric in type. The dipping angle of the seismic zone is steep (about 60°–70°) at depths shallower than 10 km and then gradually decreases to 40°–50° at depths of 20–30 km. Thus the polygonal elements in Poly3D are well suited for modelling complex surfaces with curving boundaries. Using the strong motion data, the displacement reaches 1.2 m dip-slip on the Chihshang Fault and decreases to 0.1 m near surface. The slip averages 0.34 m, releasing a scalar moment of 1.6E26 dyne-cm. For GPS data, our model reveals that the maximal dislocation is 1.8 m dip-slip. The dislocations decrease to 0.1 m near the surface. The average slip is 0.48 m, giving a scalar moment of 2.2E26 dyne-cm. Regarding post-seismic deformation, a displacements of 0.5 m were observed near the Chihshang Fault, indicating the strain had not been totally released, as a probable result of near-surface locking of the fault zone.     

Detection of the 11 yr sunspot cycle signal in Earth rotation

Summary. A two-channel MESA or maximum entropy spectrum analysis (Morf et al. 1978) between Δ T °= ET – UT (Morrison 1973) and sunspot numbers spanning 1832–1975 yields the following results over a bandwidth 2–20yr: (1) The spectra of Δ T ° and sunspot numbers are both dominated by a narrow band signal at 11.0 yr; (2) On average the coherency over the continuum is 0.14 while at 11.0yr it peaks at 0.83; (3) The 11-yr sunspot cycle signal in length of day (lod) has an amplitude of 0.16 ms, and in time lags that in sunspot numbers by 3.4yr. Estimates obtained from segmenting the series yield extremal values which grossly bound the above estimates: The narrow band signal has period range (10.5–11.4yr) coherency (0.8–1.0), amplitude (0.06–0.31 ms), and time lag (3.0–3.Syr). In addition, a two channel analysis of sunspot numbers with a new Δ T ⁿ series from 1861–1978 (Morrison 1979) and an earlier segment of Δ T °, as well as a single-channel analysis of Δ T ° and Δ T ⁿ individually, further support the conclusion that the solar sunspot cycle in Earth rotation has been detected. These experimental results have implications in astronomy, solar physics, meteorology and climatology.     

Coseismic rotation changes from the 2004 Sumatra earthquake: the effects of Earth's compressibility versus earthquake induced topography

Polar motion is modelled for the large 2004 Sumatra earthquake via dislocation theory for an incompressible elastic earth model, where inertia perturbations are due to earthquake-triggered topography of density–contrast interfaces, and for a compressible model, where inertia perturbation due to compression-dilatation of Earth's material is included; density and elastic parameters are based on a multilayered reference Earth. Both models are based on analytical Green's functions, propagated from the centre to the Earth's surface. Preliminary and updated seismological solutions are considered in elucidating the effects of improving earthquake parameters on polar motion. The large Sumatra thrust earthquake was particularly efficient in driving polar motion since it was responsible for large material displacements occurring orthogonally to the strike of the earthquake and to the Earth's surface, as imaged by GRACE gravity anomalies over the earthquake area. The effects of earthquake-induced topography are four times larger than the effects of Earth's compressibility, for l = 2 geopotential components. For varying compressional Earth properties and seismic solution, modelled polar motion ranges from 8.6 to 9.4 cm in amplitude and between 117° and 130° east longitude in direction. The close relationship between polar motion direction, earthquake longitude and thrust nature of the event, are established in terms of basic physical concepts.