Assessing environmental risks through fuzzy parameterized probabilistic analysis

A fuzzy parameterized probabilistic analysis (FPPA) method was developed in this study to assess risks associated with environmental pollution-control problems. FPPA integrated environmental transport modeling, fuzzy transformation, probabilistic risk assessment, fuzzy risk quantification into a general risk assessment framework, and was capable of handling uncertainties expressed as fuzzy-parameterized stochastic distributions. The proposed method was applied to two environmental pollution problems, with one being about the point-source pollution in a river system with uncertain water quality parameters and the other being concerned with groundwater contaminant plume from waste landfill site with poorly known contaminant physical properties. The study results indicated that the complex uncertain features had significant impacts on modeling and risk-assessment outputs; the degree of impacts of modeling parameters were highly dependent on the level of imprecision of these parameters. The results also implied that FPPA was capable of addressing vagueness or imprecision associated with probabilistic risk evaluation, and help generate risk outputs that could be elucidated under different possibilistic levels. The proposed method could be used by environmental managers to evaluate trade-offs involving risks and costs, as well as identify management solutions that sufficiently hedge against dual uncertainties.     

Estimating the Impact of Vadose Zone Sources on Groundwater to Support Performance Assessment of Soil Vapor Extraction

Soil vapor extraction (SVE) is a prevalent remediation remedy for volatile organic compound (VOC) contaminants in the vadose zone. To support selection of an appropriate condition at which SVE may be terminated for site closure or for transition to another remedy, an evaluation is needed to determine whether vadose zone VOC contamination has been diminished sufficiently to keep groundwater concentrations below threshold values. A conceptual model for this evaluation was developed for VOC fate and transport from a vadose zone source to groundwater when vapor‐phase diffusive transport is the dominant transport process. A numerical analysis showed that, for these conditions, the groundwater concentration is controlled by a limited set of parameters, including site‐specific dimensions, vadose zone properties, and source characteristics. On the basis of these findings, a procedure was then developed for estimating groundwater concentrations using results from the three‐dimensional multiphase transport simulations for a matrix of parameter value combinations and covering a range of potential site conditions. Interpolation and scaling processes are applied to estimate groundwater concentrations at compliance (monitoring) wells for specific site conditions of interest using the data from the simulation results. The interpolation and scaling methodology using these simulation results provides a far less computationally intensive alternative to site‐specific three‐dimensional multiphase site modeling, while still allowing for parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. With iterative application, the approach can be used to consider the effect of a diminishing vadose zone source over time on future groundwater concentrations. This novel approach and related simulation results have been incorporated into a user‐friendly Microsoft® Excel®‐based spreadsheet tool entitled SVEET (Soil Vapor Extraction Endstate Tool), which has been made available to the public.     

Simulation-based risk assessment of contaminated sites under remediation scenarios, planning periods, and land-use patterns—a Canadian case study

Risk assessment of contaminated sites is crucial for quantifying adverse impacts on human health and the environment. It also provides effective decision support for remediation and management of such sites. This study presents an integrated approach for environmental and health risk assessment of subsurface contamination through the incorporation of a multiphase multicomponent modeling system within a general risk assessment framework. The method is applied to a petroleum-contaminated site in western Canada. Three remediation scenarios with different efficiencies (0, 60, and 90%) and planning periods (10, 20, 40, 60, and 80 years later) are examined for each of the five potential land-use plans of the study site. Then three risky zones with different temporal and spatial distributions are identified based on the local environmental guidelines and the excess lifetime cancer risk criteria. The obtained results are useful for assessing potential human health effects when the groundwater is used for drinking water supply. They are also critical for evaluating environmental impacts when the groundwater is used for irrigation, stockbreeding, fish culture, or when the site remains the status quo. Moreover, the results indicate that the proposed method can effectively identify risky zones with different risk levels under various remediation actions, planning periods, and land-use patterns.     

Efficient Quantification of Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons and Applications at Two Contaminated Sites

Characterization and remediation of petroleum contamination are complicated issues due to variable product compositions and site conditions. Generic group analytical methods such as total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) methods have played important field screening and regulatory functions for site characterization and cleanup. This study evaluated the application of three TPH methods (a GC/MS method, a spectrometric method EPA 418.1, and a rapid field method PetroFLAG). The results showed that quantification of TPH could be attained efficiently by a combination of rapid field methods (i.e., PetroFLAG) and more sophisticated fraction-specific and target-compound methods. TPH distributions suggested different source release information for two sites with different contaminant mixtures and climate conditions. TPH was also found to correlate with reductive redox capacity (RDC), an important parameter for the design of oxidative remediation schemes. The results indicated that good site specific correlations could be established to better estimate costs of the injection of chemical oxidants if necessary. RDC values varied broadly for both background (83 ˜ 569 meq/kg) and contaminated source (523 ˜ 6044 meq/kg) samples collected from actual sites.     

BIOREGIS Software Platform Based on GIS Technology to Support in‐Situ Remediation of Petroleum Contaminated Sites. Case Study: Razvad – Dambovita County,Romania

With a need for the management of petroleum contaminated sites on Romanian territory, an experimental software platform involving ESRI‐ArcGIS technologies (BIOREGIS) is presented in this study. The BIOREGIS platform is aimed to: (i) Build the structure of relational, standardized databases to store spatial and textual characteristic information on polluted sites for further risk analysis and planning of remediation actions, (ii) improve the pollution risk assessment methodology for Romanian petroleum contaminated sites and its informatics implementation, and (iii) develop and operate the software platform for pollution risk based management involving GIS/remote sensing technologies and remediation activities. The operation of BIOREGIS has been tested for a pilot contaminated area situated at Razvad – Dambovita County, which has been subjected to in situ remediation procedures involving both bioremediation and electrokinetic processes.     

Analytical and Numerical Modeling of Solute Intrusion,Recovery, and Rebound in Fractured Bedrock

Contaminated groundwater in fractured bedrock can expose ecosystems to undesired levels of risk for extended periods due to prolonged back-diffusion from rock matrix to permeable fractures. Therefore, it is key to characterize the diffusive mass loading (intrusion) of contaminants into the rock matrix for successful management of contaminated bedrock sites. Even the most detailed site characterization techniques often fail to delineate contamination in rock matrix. This study presents a set of analytical solutions to estimate diffusive mass intrusion into matrix blocks, it is recovered by pumping and concentration rebound when pumping ceases. The analytical models were validated by comparing the results with (1) numerical model results using the same model parameters and (2) observed chloride mass recovery, rebound concentration, and concentration in pumped groundwater at a highly fractured bedrock site in Alberta, Canada. It is also demonstrated that the analytical solutions can be used to estimate the total mass stored in the fractured bedrock prior to any remediation thereby providing insights into site contamination history. The predictive results of the analytical models clearly show that successful remediation by pumping depends largely on diffusive intrusion period. The results of initial mass from the analytical model was used to successfully calibrate a three-dimensional discrete fracture network numerical model further highlighting the utility of the simple analytical solutions in supplementing the more detailed site numerical modeling. Overall, the study shows the utility of simple analytical methods to support long-term management of a contaminated fractured bedrock site including site investigations and complex numerical modeling.     

A Coupled Groundwater–Surface Water Modeling Framework for Simulating Transition Zone Processes

There is an identified need for fully representing groundwater–surface water transition zone (i.e., the sediment zone that connects groundwater and surface water) processes in modeling fate and transport of contaminants to assist with management of contaminated sediments. Most existing groundwater and surface water fate and transport models are not dynamically linked and do not consider transition zone processes such as bioturbation and deposition and erosion of sediments. An interface module is developed herein to holistically simulate the fate and transport by coupling two commonly used models, Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) and SEAWAT, to simulate surface water and groundwater hydrodynamics, while providing an enhanced representation of the processes in the transition zone. Transition zone and surface water contaminant processes were represented through an enhanced version of the EFDC model, AQFATE. AQFATE also includes SEDZLJ, a state‐of‐the‐science surface water sediment transport model. The modeling framework was tested on a published test problem and applied to evaluate field‐scale two‐ and three‐dimensional contaminant transport. The model accurately simulated concentrations of salinity from a published test case. For the field‐scale applications, the model showed excellent mass balance closure for the transition zone and provided accurate simulations of all transition zone processes represented in the modeling framework. The model predictions for the two‐dimensional field case were consistent with site‐specific observations of contaminant migration. This modeling framework represents advancement in the simulation of transition zone processes and can help inform risk assessment at sites where contaminant sources from upland areas have the potential to impact sediments and surface water.     

Importance of Nonequilibrium Sorption Conditions: Contaminated Soil

When modeling the fate and transport of chemicals in ground water, a common assumption is that sorption equilibrium is achieved rapidly. This local equilibrium assumption is valid when the rate of chemical sorption to soil particles is more rapid than the rate of aqueous chemical change by other processes. However, for some chemicals (e.g., weathered hydrocarbons) this assumption is not necessarily correct. As a result, an increasing body of knowledge related to the extent and rate of release (ROR) of hydrocarbons from soil has been generated.
When evaluating site remediation options, it is important to know when nonequilibrium sorption conditions may have a significant impact on such decisions. In this study, a tiered procedure was developed to consistently evaluate the importance of ROR information at a site. The procedure consists of three tiers, each requiring more information and computational effort than the previous one. The first tier employs three power-law relationships between site parameters and the importance of ROR kinetics to quickly and easily estimate the importance of ROR information at a site. The second tier involves running and evaluating the deterministic component of a ground water fate and transport model. The third tier involves running and evaluating the probabilistic component of the ground water model. Given the sequential nature of the procedure, it is not necessary to perform Tier II (or Tier III) unless the Tier I (or Tier II) evaluation indicates that ROR kinetics may be important at the specific site under consideration. An example of applying the Tier I analysis to a specific site is provided. The results illustrate the influence of the chemical removal processes (e.g., advection and biodegradation) on the predicted importance of ROR kinetics. For the site considered, ROR kinetics had an important impact on model predictions when the biodegradation rate was high.     

Probabilistic-fuzzy health risk modeling

Health risk analysis of multi-pathway exposure to contaminated water involves the use of mechanistic models that include many uncertain and highly variable parameters. Currently, the uncertainties in these models are treated using statistical approaches. However, not all uncertainties in data or model parameters are due to randomness. Other sources of imprecision that may lead to uncertainty include scarce or incomplete data, measurement error, data obtained from expert judgment, or subjective interpretation of available information. These kinds of uncertainties and also the non-random uncertainty cannot be treated solely by statistical methods. In this paper we propose the use of fuzzy set theory together with probability theory to incorporate uncertainties into the health risk analysis. We identify this approach as probabilistic-fuzzy risk assessment (PFRA). Based on the form of available information, fuzzy set theory, probability theory, or a combination of both can be used to incorporate parameter uncertainty and variability into mechanistic risk assessment models. In this study, tap water concentration is used as the source of contamination in the human exposure model. Ingestion, inhalation and dermal contact are considered as multiple exposure pathways. The tap water concentration of the contaminant and cancer potency factors for ingestion, inhalation and dermal contact are treated as fuzzy variables while the remaining model parameters are treated using probability density functions. Combined utilization of fuzzy and random variables produces membership functions of risk to individuals at different fractiles of risk as well as probability distributions of risk for various alpha-cut levels of the membership function. The proposed method provides a robust approach in evaluating human health risk to exposure when there is both uncertainty and variability in model parameters. PFRA allows utilization of certain types of information which have not been used directly in existing risk assessment methods.     

Modeling Dehalococcoides sp. Augmented Bioremediation in a Single Fracture System

A numerical reactive transport model was developed to simulate the bioremediation processes in a perchloroethene (PCE) contaminated single fracture system augmented with Dehalococcoides sp. (DHC). The model describes multispecies bioreactive transport processes that include bacterial growth and detachment dynamics, biodegradation of chlorinated species, competitive inhibition of various reactive species, and the loss of daughter products because of back‐partitioning effects. Two sets of experimental data, available in the study by Schaefer et al. (2010b) , were used to calibrate and test the model. The model was able to simulate both datasets. The simulation results indicated that the yield coefficient and the DHC maximum utilization rate coefficient were the two important process parameters. A detailed sensitivity study was completed to quantify the sensitivity of the model to variations in these two parameter values. The results show that an increase in yield coefficient increases bacterial growth and thus expedites the dechlorination process, whereas an increase in maximum utilization rate coefficient greatly increased dechlorination rates. The proposed model provides a mathematical framework for simulating remediation systems that employ DHC bioaugmentation for restoring chlorinated‐solvent contaminated groundwater aquifers.     

Estimating Persistent Mass Flux of Volatile Contaminants from the Vadose Zone to Ground Water

Contaminants may persist for long time periods within low permeability portions of the vadose zone where they cannot be effectively treated and are a potential continuing source of contamination to ground water. Setting appropriate vadose zone remediation goals typically requires evaluating these persistent sources in terms of their impact on meeting ground water remediation goals. Estimating the impact on ground water can be challenging at sites with low aqueous recharge rates where vapor-phase movement is the dominant transport process in the vadose zone. Existing one-dimensional approaches for simulating transport of volatile contaminants in the vadose zone are considered and compared to a new flux-continuity-based assessment of vapor-phase contaminant movement from the vadose zone to the ground water. The flux-continuity-based assessment demonstrates that the ability of the ground water to move contaminant away from the water table controls the vapor-phase mass flux from the vadose zone across the water table. Limitations of these approaches are then discussed with respect to the required assumptions and the need to incorporate three-dimensional processes when evaluating vapor-phase transport from the vadose zone to the ground water. The carbon tetrachloride plume at the U.S. Department of Energy Hanford Site is used as the example site where persistent vadose zone contamination needs to be considered in the context of ground water remediation.     

Risk-based environmental decision-making using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (F-AHP)

Environmental risk management is an integral part of risk analyses. The selection of different mitigating or preventive alternatives often involve competing and conflicting criteria, which requires sophisticated multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is one of the most commonly used MCDM methods, which integrates subjective and personal preferences in performing analyses. AHP works on a premise that decision-making of complex problems can be handled by structuring the complex problem into a simple and comprehensible hierarchical structure. However, AHP involves human subjectivity, which introduces vagueness type uncertainty and necessitates the use of decision-making under uncertainty. In this paper, vagueness type uncertainty is considered using fuzzy-based techniques. The traditional AHP is modified to fuzzy AHP using fuzzy arithmetic operations. The concept of risk attitude and associated confidence of a decision maker on the estimates of pairwise comparisons are also discussed. The methodology of the proposed technique is built on a hypothetical example and its efficacy is demonstrated through an application dealing with the selection of drilling fluid/mud for offshore oil and gas operations.     

Progress in Remediation of Groundwater at Petroleum Sites in California

Quantifying the overall progress in remediation of contaminated groundwater has been a significant challenge. We utilized the GeoTracker database to evaluate the progress in groundwater remediation from 2001 to 2011 at over 12,000 sites in California with contaminated groundwater. This paper presents an analysis of analytical results from over 2.1 million groundwater samples representing at least $100 million in laboratory analytical costs. Overall, the evaluation of monitoring data shows a large decrease in groundwater concentrations of gasoline constituents. For benzene, half of the sites showed a decrease in concentration of 85% or more. For methyl tert‐butyl ether (MTBE), this decrease was 96% and for TBE, 87%. At remediation sites in California, the median source attenuation rate was 0.18/year for benzene and 0.36/year for MTBE, corresponding to half‐lives of 3.9 and 1.9 years, respectively. Attenuation rates were positive (i.e., decreasing concentration) for benzene at 76% of sites and for MTBE at 85% of sites. An evaluation of sites with active remediation technologies suggests differences in technology effectiveness. The median attenuation rates for benzene and MTBE are higher at sites with soil vapor extraction or air sparging compared with sites without these technologies. In contrast, there was little difference in attenuation rates at sites with or without soil excavation, dual phase extraction, or in situ enhanced biodegradation. The evaluation of remediation technologies, however, did not evaluate whether specific systems were well designed or implemented and did not control for potential differences in other site factors, such as soil type.     

The Application of In Situ Air Sparging as an Innovative Soils and Ground Water Remediation Technology

Vapor extraction (soil venting) has been demonstrated to be a successful and cost-effective remediation technology for removing VOCs from the vadose (unsaturated) zone. However, in many cases, seasonal water table fluctuations, drawdown associated with pump-and-treat remediation techniques, and spills involving dense, non-aqueous phase liquids (DNAPLS) create contaminated soil below the water table. Vapor extraction alone is not considered to be an optimal remediation technology to address this type of contamination.
An innovative approach to saturated zone remediation is the use of sparging (injection) wells to inject a hydrocarbon-free gaseous medium (typically air) into the saturated zone below the areas of contamination. The contaminants dissolved in the ground water and sorbed onto soil particles partition into the advective air phase, effectively simulating an in situ air-stripping system. The stripped contaminants are transported in the gas phase to the vadose zone, within the radius of influence of a vapor extraction and vapor treatment system.
In situ air sparging is a complex multifluid phase process, which has been applied successfully in Europe since the mid-1980s. To date, site-specific pilot tests have been used to design air-sparging systems. Research is currently underway to develop better engineering design methodologies for the process. Major design parameters to be considered include contaminant type, gas injection pressures and flow rates, site geology, bubble size, injection interval (areal and vertical) and the equipment specifications. Correct design and operation of this technology has been demonstrated to achieve ground water cleanup of VOC contamination to low part-per-billion levels.     

Chemical contamination of a coral reef by the grounding of a cruise ship in Bermuda

Bulk metal analyses of surficial sediments collected around the Norwegian Crown cruise ship grounding site in Bermuda indicated significant but localized contamination of reef sediments by copper and zinc, caused by the stripping of the tri-butyltin (TBT)-free antifouling (AF) paint (Intersmooth 460) from the underside of the hull. Highest copper and zinc values were found in heavily compacted and red-pigmented sediments inside the impact scar and were comparable to levels found close to slip ways of local boat yards where AF paints from hull stripping and cleaning processes are washed into the sea. The re-distribution of AF contaminated sediments by storms and deposition on nearby reefs constitutes a significant ecological risk that could delay recovery processes and reduce the effectiveness of remediation efforts. Whilst the ecotoxicological effects of AF paint particles interspersed with sediment is unknown, and in need of further study, it is argued that the significance of AF paint contamination of grounding sites has been overlooked.     

Probabilistic risk assessment of contaminant transport in groundwater and vapour intrusion following remediation of a contaminant source

Community-scale simulations were performed to investigate the risk to groundwater and indoor air receptors downgradient of a contaminated site following the remediation of a long-term source. Six suites of Monte Carlo simulations were performed using a numerical model that accounted for groundwater flow, reactive solute transport, soil gas flow, and vapour intrusion in buildings. The model was applied to a three-dimensional, community-scale (250 m × 1000 m × 14 m) domain containing heterogeneous, spatially correlated distributions of the hydraulic conductivity, fraction of organic carbon, and biodegradation rate constant, which were varied between realizations. Analysis considered results from both individual realizations as well as the suite of Monte Carlo simulations expressed through several novel, integrated parameters, such as the probability of exceeding a regulatory standard in either groundwater or indoor air. Results showed that exceedance probabilities varied considerably with the consideration of biodegradation in the saturated zone, and were less sensitive to changes in the variance of hydraulic conductivity or the incorporation of heterogeneous distributions of organic carbon at this spatial scale. A sharp gradient in exceedance probability existed at the lateral edges of the plumes due to variability in lateral dispersion, which defined a narrow region of exceedance uncertainty. Differences in exceedance probability between realizations (i.e., due to heterogeneity uncertainty) were similar to differences attributed to changes in the variance of hydraulic conductivity or fraction of organic carbon. Simulated clean-up times, defined by reaching an acceptable exceedance probability, were found to be on the order of decades to centuries in these community-scale domains. Results also showed that the choice of the acceptable exceedance probability level (e.g., 1 vs. 5 %) would likely affect clean up times on the order of decades. Moreover, in the scenarios examined here, the risk of exceeding indoor air standards was greater than that of exceeding groundwater standards at all times and places. Overall, simulations of coupled transport processes combined with novel spatial and temporal quantification metrics for Monte Carlo analyses, provide practical tools for assessing risk in wider communities when considering site remediation.     

Probabilistic Simulation of Remediation at a Site Contaminated by Trichloroethylene

A new probabilistic remediation simulation package, PREMChlor, was used to simulate the effect of contaminant source and plume remediation at a site contaminated by trichloroethylene (TCE). First, the PREMChlor model was calibrated to the plume using a deterministic approach to represent the site conditions prior to remediation activities, which occurred in 1999. The calibrated model was then used in a probabilistic mode to conduct a simulation of the effects of field source and plume remediation activities during the period after 1999. This probabilistic simulation considers uncertainties in seven key parameters: the initial source mass and concentration, the relationship between source mass removal and source concentration, the effectiveness of the source remediation, the groundwater velocity, the background plume degradation rate, and the plume treatment effectiveness. The simulation results compare favorably with the observed data collected after 1999, and show the influence of the remediation efforts on the plume.     

Multimedia Risk-Based Soil Cleanup at a Gasoline-Contaminated Site Using Vapor Extraction

At a utility service center, gasoline from an underground storage tank had leaked into subsurface vadose zone soils for several years. To remediate the site, a soil vapor extraction (SVE) system was installed and operated. At the completion of the SVE operation, gasoline-containing residues in several confirmation soil borings exceeded agency-mandated cleanup levels. Rather than continue with SVE, a risk-based approach was developed to evaluate what levels of gasoline-containing residues could be left in the soil and still protect human health. The risk-based approach consisted of simulating the fate of chemical residues through the vadose zone and then into both the ground water and atmosphere. Receptor point concentrations were predicted, and health risks were assessed. The risk assessment concluded that ingestion of contaminated ground water and inhalation of air while showering were the largest potential contributors to risk, and that risks associated with inhalation of vapor-containing ambient air are small. However, all predicted risks are below the acceptable risk levels of 10⁻⁶ individual cancer risk probability and 1.0 hazard index. Therefore, the lead agency accepted the recommendation that the site requires no further remediation. The service center continues normal operations today.     

Stochastic multimedia risk assessment for a site with contaminated groundwater

 There exist many sites with contaminated groundwater because of inappropriate handling or disposal of hazardous materials or wastes. Health risk assessment is an important tool to evaluate the potential environmental and health impacts of these contaminated sites. It is also becoming an important basis for determining whether risk reduction is needed and what actions should be initiated. However, in research related to groundwater risk assessment and management, consideration of multimedia risk assessment and the separation of the uncertainty due to lack of knowledge and the variability due to natural heterogeneity are rare. This study presents a multimedia risk assessment framework with the integration of multimedia transfer and multi-pathway exposure of groundwater contaminants, and investigates whether multimedia risk assessment and the separation of uncertainty and variability can provide a better basis for risk management decisions. The results of the case study show that a decision based on multimedia risk assessment may differ from one based on risk resulting from groundwater only. In particular, the transfer from groundwater to air imposes a health threat to some degree. By using a methodology that combines Monte Carlo simulation, a rank correlation coefficient, and an explicit decision criterion to identify information important to the decision, the results obtained when uncertainty and variability are separate differ from the ones without such separation. In particular, when higher percentiles of uncertainty and variability distributions are considered, the method separating uncertainty and variability identifies TCE concentration as the single most important input parameter, while the method that does not distinguish the two identifies four input parameters as the important information that would influence a decision on risk reduction.     

A Study on the Influencing Factors on Ground Motion in a Valley Site

A trapezoid valley site is chosen as a research site, and according to numerical models based on orthogonal design, the factors influencing ground motion in the valley site are studied with two-dimensional finite difference method. The influencing factors are ranked, and then the calculation results are verified by ground motion analysis. The conclusions are as follows: there are four factors that have important effects on ground motion of trapezoid valley sites, but the effects are different as the location of sites changes, the influencing factors rank differently with different site locations;The ranking of the influencing factors is the same for all the sites located within a distance of 40m from the valley''s side, among them, the most effective one is the valley slope angle ranks,followed by depth-to-width ratio, overburden thickness, at last the input ground motion intensity. The impact of the factors on surface ground motion is roughly the same in the valley sites within a certain distance to the valley side,and the geometric parameters of the valley terrain play a greater part in influencing ground motion. With the increase of distance away from the valley''s side, the ranking of the influencing factors also changes, the rating of slope angle moves backward, the ranking of the input ground motion and overburden thickness move ahead. The effect of valley geometric parameters on ground motions is gradually weakened, but the effect of other two influence factors are gradually increased, similar to cases of a horizontal layered site. Strong motion records in Anning River valley site were analyzed,and the results show that the valley topography has a significant amplification effect on ground motion, and that the numerical results of this paper are credible.