可预见的青藏高原环境大变化（摘录）

在国家决策实施西部大开发战略之际 ,一切长远的基础设施 ,如铁路、公路和水利工程、地下资源开发和农、林、牧业发展以及城市建设 ,都要和生态、环境的保护改善协调进行。我国西部的大部分地区 ,特别是青藏高原气候寒冷干燥 ,生态环境脆弱 ,更要密切注意气候与环境变化的大趋势和人类活动增加对生态和资源的影响 ,要正确地评价估计这种趋势 ,预筹适应和可持续发展的方略 ,力求避免可能出现的不利行为。1 .青藏高原变暖趋势大于全球平均趋势由于全球工业化和森林砍伐的后果 ,大气中温室气体二氧化碳 ( CO2 )的含量已从 2 0 0年前2 80 ppmv,…     

未来气候变暖情形下青藏高原多年冻土分布初探

基于未来温室气体中等排放情景下气候模式给出的气候预测结果的高分辨率降尺度分析结果,运用两种方法(年均温法和高程模型法)模拟了1980-1999,2030-2049和2080-2099年3个时段青藏高原多年冻土分布.结果表明,以年均地温-1℃作为多年冻土划分依据的年均温法模拟的目前(1980-1999年)高原多年冻土面积为127.99万km2,与世界数据中心给出的青藏高原现代多年冻土面积为129.12万km2的估算接近(误差率仅为0.86%);到本世纪中期(2030-2049年),高原多年冻土面积减少为87.26万km2,退化率达到31.82%;而到本世纪末(2080-2099年),高原多年冻土面积只有69.25万km2,较目前将退化45.89%.不同高度带的对比分析还发现,与高原及其邻近地区年均气温的升高一般随海拔高度而增加的趋势相反,未来高原多年冻土的退化率将随着海拔高度增加而降低.在全球变暖过程中的冻土退化,特别是高原东南部冻土向西北部的逐步退缩,对高原冻土区工程稳定性的影响应引起我们的足够重视.     

青藏高原工程走廊冻土分布模型及其变化趋势

青藏高原工程走廊多年冻土是地气系统相互作用的产物,气候环境决定了其分布的宏观格局,但局地因素如坡向等,在一定条件下,对小区域多年冻土的影响往往会超过大气候背景。通过Pearson相关性分析,选取了对青藏高原工程走廊多年冻土分布影响较大、在GIS技术支持下较容易量化的坡向,结合区域内29个钻孔点的长期地温监测数据,建立了年平均地温与高程、纬度及坡向之间的多元线性模型。根据青藏高原冻土工程地温分带指标,制作出了走廊内符合实际的冻土分布图。运用随气候变化的响应模型,预测了走廊内50 a后多年冻土将发生较大的变化:1.低温稳定区、低温基本稳定区的空间分布面积逐渐减小,分布界线向高海拔迁移;2.高温不稳定区较大范围地向高温极不稳定区转化;3.高温极不稳定区将处于长期的退化过程。     

积沙影响下伏冻土的水热耦合模型研究

青藏高原地区冻土正呈退化趋势,除气候变化、人为活动的影响外,沙漠化也被认为是冻土退化的原因之一,但仍存在较大争议。基于不饱和土渗流和热传导理论,结合CoLM和Coup-Model模型,初步构建了积沙-冻土-水热概念模型和耦合模型。并在两模型的基础上,讨论了沙层反射率、积沙体热容量、积沙体厚度和沙的传热率等参数对下伏冻土的热影响过程。结果表明,沙层的反射率、地面发射率均高于天然地表,沙层接受的热量较天然地表偏少;积沙地表下的沙层和活动层能截留更多热量,使冻结层获得的热量相对减少;沙的导热性较差,导致积沙地表下地温变化出现延迟,从而延缓冻土退化;同时,积沙无论厚薄,都将起到延缓冻土退化的作用。因而,沙漠化对青藏高原冻土退化的影响可能较小,但全面揭示沙漠化对冻土的影响仍需深入研究。     

青藏高原草地生态系统碳收支研究进展

陆地生态系统碳收支仍然是当前全球气候变化研究的重要内容,青藏高原作为全球气候变化的敏感区,使青藏高原草地生态系统在区域碳收支平衡中占有主导地位,但研究方法等不同使得碳收支估算结果存在很大的不确定性。气候变暖在一定程度上提高了高寒草地生态系统的植被初级生产力和生物量,由此补偿了气候变暖导致的土壤有机碳分解释量,使青藏高原草地植被仍然发挥着碳汇的功能。而人类放牧活动对草地生态系统的影响较为复杂。因此,如何区分气候变化和人类活动对生态系统的影响机制,定量评价未来气候变化和人类活动影响下,青藏高原生态系统碳源/汇格局的可能变化,是一个非常重要的研究方向,也是一个极大的挑战。     

Modeled response of talik development under thermokarst lakes to permafrost thickness on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Permafrost thickness under identical climates in cold regions can vary significantly because it is severely affected by climate change, topography, soil physical and thermal properties, and geothermal conditions. This study numerically in- vestigates the response of ground thermal regime and talik development processes to permafrost with different thicknesses under a thermokarst lake on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. On the basis of observed data and information from a representative monitored lake in the Beiluhe Basin, we used a heat transfer model with phase change under a cylindrical coordinate system to conduct three simulation cases with permafrost thicknesses of 45 m, 60 m, and 75 m, respectively. The simulated results indicate that increases in permafrost thickness not only strongly retarded the open talik formation time, but also delayed the permafrost lateral thaw process after the formation of open talik. Increasing the permafrost thickness by 33.3% and 66.7% led to open talik formation time increases of 83.66% and 207.43%, respectively, and resulted in increases in the lateral thaw duration of permafrost under the modeled thermokarst lake by 28.86% and 46.54%, respectively, after the formation of the open taliks.     

Medium and small embankment dams on permafrost: A discussion of current concepts

This article discusses the current concepts of dam design and construction in permafrost regions. It is demonstrated that embankment dams often change their state from frozen to thawed and back during the operation period. It is shown that these transitions are not always attributable to observed climate warming. Where geotechnical, hydrogeological, and permafrost conditions are complicated, proper performance of embankment dams can only be provided by adhering to a selected thermal design for, as an example, a frozen state.     

Monitoring of small and medium embankment dams on permafrost in a changing climate

Global climate warming which began in the second half of the twentieth century is continuing. It is associated with increased risks for ecological management, especially in permafrost areas comprising over 65% of Russia. Of special concern are dams constructed on permafrost. They are subject not only to climatic impacts, but also to additional hydrothermal loads from water reservoirs. This paper presents the concept of geocryological monitoring of dams and other water resource projects and substantiates its necessity in view of climatic change. It also presents methods, scope and implementation of geocryological monitoring at medium and small dams, considering the specific nature of Far Northern areas, as well as the complicated geotechnical, hydrogeological and permafrost conditions.