A feasible methodology for landslide susceptibility assessment in developing countries: A case-study of NW Nicaragua after Hurricane Mitch

In October 1998, Hurricane Mitch triggered a large number of landslides (mainly debris flows) in Honduras and Nicaragua, resulting in a high death toll and in considerable damage to property. In recent years, a number of risk assessment methodologies have been devised to mitigate natural disasters. However, due to scarcity of funds and lack of specialised personnel few of these methodologies are accessible to developing countries. To explore the potential application of relatively simple and affordable landslide susceptibility methodologies in such countries, we focused on a region in NW Nicaragua which was among the most severely hit during the Mitch event. Our study included (1) detailed field work to produce a high-resolution inventory landslide map at 1 : 10,000 scale, and (2) a selection of the relevant instability factors from a Terrain Units Map which had previously been generated in a project for rural development. Based on the combination of these two datasets and using GIS tools we developed a comparative analysis of failure-zones and terrain factors in an attempt to classify the land into zones according to the propensity to landslides triggered by heavy rainfalls. The resulting susceptibility map was validated by using a training and a test zone, providing results comparable to those reached in studies based in more sophisticated methodologies. Thus, we provide an example of a methodology which is simple enough to be fully comprehended by non-specialised technicians and which could be of help in landslide risk mitigation through implementation of non-structural measures, such as land planning or emergency measures.     

Validation of Landslide Susceptibility Maps; Examples and Applications from a Case Study in Northern Spain

A procedure for validating landslide susceptibility maps wasapplied in a study area in northern Spain and the results obtained compared. Validationwas used to carry out sensitivity analysis for individual variables and combinationsof variables. The validity of different map-making methods was tested, as well as theutility of different types of Favourability Functions. The results obtained show thatvalidation is essential to determine the predictive value of susceptibility maps. Italso helps to better select the most suitable function and significant variables, thus improving the efficiency of the mapping process. Validation based on a temporal strategy makes it possible to derive hazard maps from susceptibility maps.     

Geophysical investigations of large landslides in the Carnic Region of southern Austria

The area under investigation for the past two decades is in the vicinity of the Gailtal lineament, which is the most dominant tectonic feature of the eastern Alps of southern Austria. An area of about 8 km² is in a state of constant instability, as documented by movement of road tracks of several centimetres per year. Geotechnical and surveying techniques have been used to measure these movements in the past but without solving the problem of the mechanism of these failure processes. Geophysical methods (seismic refraction, geoelectrics, and electromagnetics) were applied in order to determine the validity of one of the discussed movement models. In-situ velocity measurements were used to identify different lithologies beneath surficial talus deposits. The thickness of these talus deposits, of about 4–30 m, found by seismic refraction clearly demonstrates that huge ‘blocks’ (i.e. more or less undisturbed lithologic units) within the talus/debris are in close contact with the basement. This basement, which shows lower seismic velocities in different parts combined with low electric resistivities, is obviously strongly disturbed by different failure surfaces. The different gliding velocity of the blocks and the talus/debris deposits leads to a geological model in which huge rock blocks move slowly in relation to the disintegrating basement, whereas the talus/debris deposits move over the surface of these blocks at a higher velocity. The interpretation of these landslide studies is not a straightforward analysis. It is a complex problem with a complex solution, including all information from geotechnical, geophysical, and surveying investigations.     

云南陇川县"2004-07-05"特大滑坡泥石流灾害及防治对策

云南德宏州陇川县2004年7月5目发生了近100a一遇的特大滑坡泥石流灾害。这次灾害点多、面广,波及到全县11个乡镇,并且灾害几乎同时发生。因灾死亡13人,4人失踪,直接经济损失约2亿元,其灾害的严重性可见一斑。因灾区地处滇西横断山地,岭谷相间,地形高差、山坡坡度及河、沟谷比降都比较大;地质条件复杂,出露岩层为易风化的花岗岩及片麻岩,雨季5-10月降水丰沛而集中,这些对滑坡泥石流的发育极为有利：不合理的人类经济活动(如陡坡耕作、挖方填方式的公路建设等)则加剧了滑坡泥石流灾害的发生。加之7月5目区域性暴雨及局部特大暴雨的激发,最终引发了此次灾害。暴雨是陇川县07-05灾害最直接也是最根本的原因。通过对这次灾害的实地考察,在掌握本区的社会经济条件和自然属性前提下,总结了此次灾害的特点。此次灾害具有如下几个方面的特点：灾种多样,灾害的链武特征明显;滑坡多表现为高位、高势能、高速特征,而泥石流多发生在沟口;滑坡泥石流规模小,但点多面广：漂木流危害严重。在明确陇川县07-05灾害特点和成因的前提下,提出了有针对性的近期、中远期防灾、减灾对策。     

Shallow landslides in pyroclastic soils: a distributed modelling approach for hazard assessment

An effective assessment of shallow landslide hazard requires spatially distributed modelling of triggering processes. This is possible by using physically based models that allow us to simulate the transient hydrological and geotechnical processes responsible for slope instability. Some simplifications are needed to address the lack of data and the difficulty of calibration over complex terrain at the catchment's scale. We applied two simple hydrological models, coupled with the infinite slope stability analysis, to the May 1998 landslide event in Sarno, Southern Italy. A quasi-dynamic model (Barling et al., 1994) was used to model the contribution to instability of lateral flow by simulating the time-dependent formation of a groundwater table in response to rainfall. A diffusion model [Water Resour. Res. 36 (2000) 1897] was used to model the role of vertical flux by simulating groundwater pressures that develop in response to heavy rainstorms. The quasi-dynamic model overestimated the slope instability over the whole area (more than 16%) but was able to predict correctly slope instability within zero order basins where landslides occurred and developed into large debris flows. The diffusion model simulated correctly the triggering time of more than 70% of landslides within an unstable area amounting to 7.3% of the study area. These results support the hypothesis that both vertical and lateral fluxes were responsible for landslide triggering during the Sarno event, and confirm the utility of such models as tools for hazard planning and land management.     

Landslide and debris-flow hazard analysis and prediction using GIS in Minamata–Hougawachi area, Japan

On July 20, 2003, following a short duration of heavy rainfall, a debris-flow disaster occurred in the Minamata–Hougawachi area, Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan. This disaster was triggered by a landslide. In order to assess the landslide and debris-flow hazard potential of this mountainous region, the study of historic landslides is critical. The objective of the study is to couple 3D slope-stability analysis models and 2D numerical simulation of debris flow within a geographical information systems in order to identity the potential landslide-hazard area. Based on field observations, the failure mechanism of the past landslide is analyzed and the mechanical parameters for 3D slope-stability analysis are calculated from the historic landslide. Then, to locate potential new landslides, the studied area is divided into slope units. Based on 3D slope-stability analysis models and on Monte Carlo simulation, the spots of potential landslides are identified. Finally, we propose a depth-averaged 2D numerical model, in which the debris and water mixture is assumed to be a uniform continuous, incompressible, unsteady Newtonian fluid. The method accurately models the historic debris flow. According to the 2D numerical simulation, the results of the debris-flow model, including the potentially inundated areas, are analyzed, and potentially affected houses, river and road are mapped.     

Centrifuge modelling of landslides and landslide hazard mitigation: A review

Landslides are serious geohazards that occur under a variety of climatic conditions and can cause many casualties and significant economic losses. Centrifuge modelling, as a representative type of physical modelling, provides a realistic simulation of the stress level in a small-scale model and has been applied over the last 50 years to develop a better understanding of landslides. With recent developments in this technology, the application of centrifuge modelling in landslide science has significantly increased. Here, we present an overview of physical models that can capture landslide processes during centrifuge modelling. This review focuses on (i) the experimental principles and considerations, (ii) landslide models subjected to various triggering factors, including centrifugal acceleration, rainfall, earthquakes, water level changes, thawing permafrost, excavation, external loading and miscellaneous conditions, and (iii) different methods for mitigating landslides modelled in centrifuge, such as the application of nails, piles, geotextiles, vegetation, etc. The behaviors of all the centrifuge models are discussed, with emphasis on the deformation and failure mechanisms and experimental techniques. Based on this review, we provide a best-practice methodology for preparing a centrifuge landslide test and propose further efforts in terms of the seven aspects of model materials, testing design and equipment, measurement methods, scaling laws, full-scale test applications, landslide early warning, and 3D modelling to better understand the complex behaviour of landslides.     

Hydrometeorological thresholds for landslide initiation and forest operation shutdowns on the north coast of British Columbia

Debris flows and debris avalanches are the most widespread and hazardous types of landslides on the British Columbia north coast. Triggered by heavy rain, they pose risks to forestry workers in sparsely developed regions. The scarcity of long-term quality rain gauges and the lack of weather radar information create significant challenge in predicting the timing of landslides, which could be used to warn and, when necessary, evacuate forestry personnel. Traditional methods to relate rainfall antecedents and rainfall intensity to known landslide dates have proven to be unsatisfactory in this study due to extreme spatial variability of rainfall, enhanced by the orographic effect and the scarcity of rain gauges in a very large area. This has led to an integration of meteorological variables in a landslide advisory system that classifies three types of approaching storms by the 850-mbar wind speed and direction, the occurrence of subtropical moisture flow, and the existence of a warm layer characterized by high thickness values of the 500- to 1,000-mbar pressure levels. The storm classification was combined with a 4-week antecedent rainfall and the 24-h rainfall measured near or in the watershed where logging operations are taking place. This system, once implemented, is thought to reduce loss of life, injury, and economic losses associated with forestry works in the study area.     

Post-disaster assessment of hazard mitigation for small and medium-magnitude debris flow disasters in Bali,Indonesia and Jimani,Dominican Republic

This article explores whether past exposure to debris flow disasters with a human dimension (e.g. caused in part by deforestation) results in adaptive hazard mitigation and improved environmental and resource management practices in affected areas. When guiding hazard mitigation practice, the ‘adaptive hazard mitigation’ approach views mitigation as a multi-dimensional experiment, with the associated need for post-experiment monitoring, evaluation, learning and adjustment, and attention paid to multiple scales (Bogardi 2004). This article explores how the concept of ‘adaptive hazard mitigation’ has emerged, linking this ‘adaptive management’ used increasingly in resource and environmental management. Two case studies of disasters linked to human-induced environmental change are examined, and the mitigation responses of local communities, NGOs and Government agencies are documented. Data sources include secondary data (journal articles, web-based disaster reports and grey literature) on each disaster, key informant interviews (n = 8) and direct observation over the 2005–2006 period of post-disaster mitigation actions implemented after each disaster. The research indicates that in both case studies, a limited range of hazard mitigation actions was employed, including both structural and non-structural approaches. However, the research also found that causal factors involving human-induced environmental change (e.g. deforestation) were not addressed, and overall, the hazard mitigation strategies adopted lacked monitoring, learning and adjustment. In both case studies, responses to disaster were judged to be examples of ‘trial and error’ adaptation, rather than either ‘passive’ or ‘active’ adaptation.

Earthquake-induced landslide hazard and vegetation recovery assessment using remotely sensed data and a neural network-based classifier: a case study in central Taiwan

A catastrophic earthquake with a Richter magnitude of 7.3 occurred in the Chi-Chi area of Nantou County on 21 September 1999. Large-scale landslides were generated in the Chiufenershan area of Nantou County in central Taiwan. This study used a neural network-based classifier and the proposed NDVI-based quantitative index coupled with multitemporal SPOT images and digital elevation models (DEMs) for the assessment of long-term landscape changes and vegetation recovery conditions at the sites of these landslides. The analyzed results indicate that high accuracy of landslide mapping can be extracted using a neural network-based classifier, and the areas affected by these landslides have gradually been restored from 211.52 ha on 27 September 1999 to 113.71 ha on 11 March 2006, a reduction of 46.24%, after six and a half years of assessment. In accordance with topographic analysis at the sites of the landslides, the collapsed and deposited areas of the landslide were 100.54 and 110.98 ha, with corresponding debris volumes of 31,983,800 and 39,339,500 m³. Under natural vegetation succession, average vegetation recovery rate at the sites of the landslides reached 36.68% on 11 March 2006. The vegetation recovery conditions at the collapsed area (29.17%) are shown to be worse than at the deposited area (57.13%) due to topsoil removal and the steep slope, which can be verified based on the field survey. From 1999 to 2006, even though the landslide areas frequently suffered from the interference of typhoon strikes, the vegetation succession process at the sites of the landslides was still ongoing, which indicates that nature, itself, has the capability for strong vegetation recovery for the denudation sites. The analyzed results provide very useful information for decision-making and policy-planning in the landslide area.     

天水市滑坡泥石流灾害

天水市属典型的山间河谷盆地型城市,受特殊地形地貌、地质构造、岩土性质等的控制和影响,地质环境较差,滑坡、泥石流等地质灾害发育且活动频繁,是天水市的主要地质灾害和环境地质问题,严重威胁着人民生命财产的安全并制约着城市的发展.历史上造成了严重的经济损失和人员伤亡.随着城市规模的扩大,地质灾害和环境工程地质问题将更加突出.在滑坡、泥石流的类型、成因和分布研究的基础上,提出了合理利用与保护地质环境、防治地质灾害的措施和对策.     

Morphological methods and dynamic modelling in landslide hazard assessment of the Campania Apennine carbonate slope

Landslide risk of the Campanian carbonate slopes covered by pyroclastic deposits is mainly connected with the occurrence of high-velocity debris avalanches and debris flows. Analyses show that flows initiate as small translational slides in the pyroclastics. The failure process is controlled by the interaction of both natural and human-induced factors. Geomorphological settings play a decisive role in locating the source failures. Therefore, the crucial aspects in landslide hazard and risk assessment are: (a) recognise the geomorphological control factors, (b) determine parameters defining landslide intensity (velocity, volume, depth of deposit) and (c) predict landslide runout distance. An approach combining geomorphology and numerical analysis has been adopted in the work reported here. Potential future landslide intensity scenarios are simulated predicting the runout behaviour of potential instabilities by using a dynamic model previously calibrated by back-analysing observed events of similar scale and type. The selected area is a sector of the Avella Mountains having the same geomorphological environment as the 1998 Sarno landslides (Campania, Southern Italy).     

彝良县地质灾害分布特征及防治建议

彝良县位于云南省东北部,为云南省七个地质灾害重点防治区的一部分。2003年的地质灾害调查显示,县域内有地质灾害236处,其中滑坡181处,不稳定斜坡9处,泥石流34处,地面塌陷12处,以滑坡和泥石流为主。综合研究分析结果表明,地质灾害的主要诱因除地质地理环境（地形地貌、降雨集中、岩溶作用、新构造运动强烈）等自然因素外,人类工程活动中的切坡过陡和采矿活动形成的巨大采空区也是主要诱发因素。在此基础上,根据各种影响因素的作用强度把彝良县划分为洛泽河—小米溪河高易发区、发达—洛旺中等易发区和低易发区（含小草坝亚区和龙街-奎香亚区）三个地质灾害区,并在灾害防治、协调管理、宣传教育等方面提出了一些有益的建议。      

A procedure for making objective preliminary assessments of outburst flood hazard from moraine-dammed lakes in southwestern British Columbia

Existing methods of evaluating the hazard posed by moraine-dammed lakes are unsystematic, subjective, and depend on the expertise and biases of the geoscientist. In this paper, we provide a framework for making objective preliminary assessments of outburst flood hazard in southwestern British Columbia. Our procedure relies on remote sensing methods and requires only limited knowledge of glacial processes so that evaluations of outburst flood hazard can be incorporated into routine hazard assessments of glaciated regions. We describe objective approaches, which incorporate existing empirical relations applicable to the study region, for estimating outburst peak discharge, maximum volume, maximum travel distance, maximum area of inundation, and probability. Outburst flood hazard is greatest for moderately large lakes that are impounded by large, narrow, ice-free moraine dams composed of sedimentary rock debris and drain into steep, sediment-filled gullies above major river valleys. We demonstrate the application of the procedure using three case studies and show that flood hazard varies, especially with major changes in lake level. Our assessment scheme yields reproducible results and enables engineers and geoscientists to prioritize potentially hazardous lakes for more detailed field investigation.     

GIS-based hazard mapping and zonation of debris flows in Xiaojiang Basin,southwestern China

Debris flow sites were identified at 140 locations in the Xiaojiang Basin in Yunnan province, southwestern China. Their spatial distribution and catchment characteristics are described in detail on the basis of previous research, air photo interpretation, field investigation and mapping using Geographical Information Systems (GIS). Using a statistical approach, a quantitative model of hazards assessment and zonation was developed through synthesis analysis of basin areas, gradients, and the relative reliefs of these debris flow sites. In terms of debris flow hazard assessment, areas within the Xiaojiang Basin can be classified as severe, heavy and light hazard regions.     

Natural hazard impacts in small island developing states: A review of current knowledge and future research needs

Small island developing states (or SIDS) are exposed to a large number of natural hazards and many characteristics of small island developing states make them particularly vulnerable to the impacts of natural hazards. In spite of this acknowledged vulnerability, there are relatively few studies which focus on the impacts of natural hazards in these countries. This paper presents a review of our current state of knowledge of impacts in small island developing states and highlights a number of research needs. Central to these is the need to integrate natural hazards research within a sustainable development context and the need to exploit existing procedures such as government coordinated disaster impact assessments to generate a detailed understanding of natural hazards impacts.     

Sedimentary signatures of cyclic growth and destruction of stratovolcanoes: A case study from Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand

The long-term behaviour of andesite stratovolcanoes is characterised by a repetition of edifice growth phases followed by collapse. This cyclic pattern represents a natural frequency at varying timescales in the growth dynamics of stratovolcanoes worldwide. Around the > 130 ka Mt. Taranaki (Egmont volcano), New Zealand, coastal–cliff successions at 20–40 km distance comprise repeating packages of lithologically and sedimentologically distinctive mass-flow deposits. Varying depositional mechanisms and source properties of these units record growth and collapse cycles of the central edifice. These are used to construct a model for cyclic volcaniclastic sedimentation in the surrounds of stratovolcanoes. During edifice-construction phases, thick packages of tabular, predominantly monolithologic, hyperconcentrated-flow and debris-flow deposits accumulate with intercalated tephra beds. The mass-flow units commonly contain large proportions of fresh pumice or juvenile-lithic andesite. Intervals of quiescence separating eruptive periods are characterised by landscape re-adjustment, accompanied by deposition of fluvial and aeolian sediments, along with steady accretion of medial ash. In contrast, brief episodes of destruction are marked by wide-spread, distinctively clay-rich, polylithologic debris-avalanche deposits and related marginal debris flow units. The growth stages can be terminated by an eruption-triggered sector collapse, or by external forces once the edifice exceeds a critical stable height or profile (dependent on eruptive style and local geo-tectonic conditions). Once the edifice becomes metastable, regional tectonic earthquakes or shallow-level intrusion events are likely triggers for collapse. Although the resulting debris avalanches represent the greatest individual hazard from such andesite stratovolcanoes, their frequency is relatively low compared with other types of mass-flows generated during edifice-growth phases. Accurate forecasts of future hazard from mass-flow events are therefore dependent on recognition of both the frequency of a stratovolcano's growth cycle and its current position in that cycle.     

Landslide risk analysis in the area North of Lisbon (Portugal): evaluation of direct and indirect costs resulting from a motorway disruption by slope movements

A risk analysis is developed for a test site located in the area north of Lisbon using a scenario of a temporary interruption of the motorway A9 due to a landslide of rotational or translational type. Landslide susceptibility is assessed at the regional scale independently for rotational and translational slides, comparing the landslide distribution with a set of assumed independent landslide predisposing factors. Susceptibility models are validated and classified through the computation of prediction rate curves based on the temporal partition of the landslide data sets. Landslide hazard maps are based on a scenario of future landslide occurrence for the next 27 years. These maps allow the definition of two critical areas on the motorway A9 with regards to landslide susceptibility. Direct costs associated with both critical spots are assessed taking into account the probable affected area of the motorway, and the reconstruction costs. Indirect costs derived from the traffic interruption are evaluated considering the alternatives paths to the motorway, and include costs resulting from: (1) additional fuel consumption; (2) decrease in tollgate income; and (3) loss of productive time. Results show that indirect costs may be 24 to 43 times higher than direct costs, assuming a temporary interruption of the motorway for 6 months.     

基于GIS和CF-Logistic回归模型地质灾害易发性评价：以青海湟中县为例

研究地质灾害易发性的评价方法,对地质灾害防治有着非常重要的现实意义。本文以青海省西宁市湟中县为研究区域,选取高程、坡度、坡向、地形起伏度、距河流距离、距断层距离和工程岩组7个评价因子,利用确定性系数与逻辑回归模型相结合的方法计算出每个单元格地质灾害发生的概率。同时利用ROC曲线和AUC值对模型分类精度进行验证,最终得到AUC值为0.863,说明该方法对湟中县地质灾害易发性评价具有较强的适用性和客观性。本文研究表明,高层、坡向、距河流距离和工程岩组4个因子对研究区地质灾害的影响最为显著。从地质灾害的空间分布来看,该方法计算结果表明极高、高易发区主要分布在湟水河及其干流两侧低山丘陵地区,低易发区主要分布在研究区北部和西南地区。从评价因子的角度分析,高易发区主要分布在离河流500 m的松散冲洪积岩层和软弱层状碎屑岩岩层上。以上研究结果表明,基于CF-Logistic回归模型对研究区地质灾害易发性评价有较强的参考价值,能为研究区地质灾害的防治工作提供理论依据及方法。

     

Uncertainty pattern in landslide susceptibility prediction modelling: Effects of different landslide boundaries and spatial shape expressions

In some studies on landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM), landslide boundary and spatial shape characteristics have been expressed in the form of points or circles in the landslide inventory instead of the accurate polygon form. Different expressions of landslide boundaries and spatial shapes may lead to substantial differences in the distribution of predicted landslide susceptibility indexes (LSIs); moreover, the presence of irregular landslide boundaries and spatial shapes introduces uncertainties into the LSM. To address this issue by accurately drawing polygonal boundaries based on LSM, the uncertainty patterns of LSM modelling under two different landslide boundaries and spatial shapes, such as landslide points and circles, are compared. Within the research area of Ruijin City in China, a total of 370 landslides with accurate boundary information are obtained, and 10 environmental factors, such as slope and lithology, are selected. Then, correlation analyses between the landslide boundary shapes and selected environmental factors are performed via the frequency ratio (FR) method. Next, a support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF) based on landslide points, circles and accurate landslide polygons are constructed as point-, circle- and polygon-based SVM and RF models, respectively, to address LSM. Finally, the prediction capabilities of the above models are compared by computing their statistical accuracy using receiver operating characteristic analysis, and the uncertainties of the predicted LSIs under the above models are discussed. The results show that using polygonal surfaces with a higher reliability and accuracy to express the landslide boundary and spatial shape can provide a markedly improved LSM accuracy, compared to those based on the points and circles. Moreover, a higher degree of uncertainty of LSM modelling is present in the expression of points because there are too few grid units acting as model input variables. Additionally, the expression of the landslide boundary as circles introduces errors in measurement and is not as accurate as the polygonal boundary in most LSM modelling cases. In addition, the results under different conditions show that the polygon-based models have a higher LSM accuracy, with lower mean values and larger standard deviations compared with the point- and circle-based models. Finally, the overall LSM accuracy of the RF is superior to that of the SVM, and similar patterns of landslide boundary and spatial shape affecting the LSM modelling are reflected in the SVM and RF models.