Comprehensive study on stability of deep crust and unstable behavior of earthquake source by both failure mechanism and frictional sliding mechanism

In this paper the relation between fault movement and stress state in deep crust is discussed, based on synthetic analysis of the crustal stresses measured over the world and the concerned data of focal mechanism. Using Coulomb criterion for shear failure and frictional slip, analytical expressions for estimating stabilities of intact rock and existing fault in the crust and for identifying the type of faulting (normal, strike-slip or thrust fault) are derived. By defining the Failure FunctionF _m and the Fraction FunctionF _f, which may describe steadiness of crustal rock and existing fault, respectively, a synthetic model is set up to consider both fracturing mechanism and the sliding mechanism. By this model, a method to study stability and unstable behavior of crustal rock and fault at different depths is given. According to the above model, quantitative study on the crustal stability in the North China plain is made in terms of the measured data of hydraulic fracturing stress, pore-fluid pressure, terrestrical heat flow in this region. The functionsF _m andF _f and the shear stresses on faults with different strike angle and dip angle at various depths in this region are calculated. In the calculation the constraint condition of fault movement obeys Byerlee’s Law, and the depth-dependent nonlinear change in the vertical stress due to inhomogeneity of crustal density and the high anomalous pore-fluid pressure in deep crust of this region are considered. The conclusions are: the unstable behavior of the crust in the North China plain is not failure of crustal rock but slip on existing fault; the depth range where stick-slip of fault may happen is about from 8 to 20 km or more; stability of steep fault is lower than that of gentle sloping fault; the shear stresses in the range where may occur stick-slip are nearly horizontal; the steep faults trending from NNE to NE in this region are liable to produce strong earthquakes, whose co-seismic faultings are, for the most part, right lateral slip; the change in pore-fluid pressure in depth remarkably affects the stability of the crust and the increase in pore-fluid pressure, therefore, would be an important factor exciting strong earthquake in this region. The above theoretical inferences are consistent with the data measured in this region. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologia Sinica,13, 450–461, 1991. This work is supported by Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation.     

Change of crustal gravitational potential energy in the Taiwan orogen by the Chi-Chi earthquake sequence

The active convergence between the northwest corner of the Philippine Sea Plate and the southeast margin of the Eurasian Plate has given rise to the Taiwan mountain-building and produced numerous earthquakes. Among the earthquakes, the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake is the largest one recorded in the century. In this study, we examine the crustal gravitational potential energy (GPE) change in the Taiwan orogen caused by the Chi-Chi earthquake sequence, which was catalogued by the regional broadband seismometer array for a whole year. As a result, we find that the crust was going up and down randomly during the earthquake sequence, but an overall cumulative gain of the crustal GPE, +1.82×10¹⁶ J, was rapidly achieved in 1 month after the main shock. The crustal GPE was nearly still afterwards and reached +1.90×10¹⁶ J in 1 year. Spatially, although the main surface faulting has occurred in western Taiwan, the crustal GPE gain is mainly distributed in central Taiwan at the area where the existing crustal GPE is high and the existing lithospheric GPE is relatively low. The crustal GPE loss by the Chi-Chi earthquake sequence can also be observed and is generally distributed at both sides of the crustal GPE gain area. The crustal GPE gain mainly found in central Taiwan corroborates that the uplift of the Taiwan orogen is principally taking place in central Taiwan, rather than in the more hazardous western Taiwan.     

断层阶区对震源破裂传播过程的控制作用研究

地震破裂能否穿越断层阶区（stepover）引发更大震级的地震是震源动力学研究的重要内容.本文利用不连续变形体接触力学的动态有限单元方法,模拟断层阶区对地震破裂传播的控制作用.通过改变断层周边初始应力场、断层面上的摩擦本构关系以及断层阶区的间距大小来分析各个因素对破裂传播的影响,并定量分析产生这些影响的力学机制.模拟结果表明：断层面上的摩擦系数减小或断层周边区域内的初始剪应力增大,都将增加断层破裂跳跃阶区传播的可能性;此外,若断层阶区间距越小,断层破裂也越容易跳跃阶区传播.计算结果还显示：断层上的摩擦系数大、初始剪应力小、断层阶区间隔大,那么此阶区所在之处将可能是断层破裂的终止位置;相反,当断层面上的摩擦系数较小、初始剪应力较大、断层阶区间隔较小,破裂就容易穿越阶区而出现较大的地震.同时,从模拟结果可以看出,在发震断层破裂停止后,应力将继续向四周传播;当应力积累达到破裂极限时,触发断层阶区中的另一断层产生破裂,因此在破裂跳跃断层阶区的过程中存在一个时间延迟.最后,破裂能否跳跃断层阶区,可以利用库仑应力在空间的分布进行合理的解释.     

地震破裂过程的研究

研究震源力学模型的一个新方向是用动态扩展的剪切裂纹模拟地震破裂过程。本文利用裂端有塑性区薄层且断层面上有摩擦力的平面剪切裂纹错动模式来表示地震破裂过程,对运动方程和边界条件进行拉氏变换和傅氏变换,利用维纳-霍普（Wiener-Hopf）方法和卡格尼阿（Cagniard）方法得到了断层面上的位移和应力表达式。根据裂端附近的能量平衡条件,计算了地震破裂的平均速度和塑性区尺度,还讨论了断层面上的位错分布函数,并对某些前震地震波高频成分增多的现象提出了解释。在本文假定的参数条件下,地震破裂的平均速度c=0.72β,β是介质的剪切波速。塑性区尺度约为地震新断层总长度（包括塑性区）的12％。按本文的结果,由于破裂速度的增加,前震的震波初动半周期减小的异常幅度不会超过39％。     

不同应力状态和摩擦系数对综合P波辐射花样影响的模拟研究

为研究不同应力状态(包括主应力相对大小)和摩擦系数对大量地震P波初动辐射花样(综合P波辐射花样)的影响,首先给出了不同应力状态下的剪应力、摩擦应力和库仑破裂应力在断层面法向上的三维分布.表明即使在不考虑摩擦的情况下,剪应力在不同取向断层面上的分布也有很大差别,摩擦应力也在不同取向断层面上造成一定影响.其次,根据库仑破裂...     

Evolution of Stress Fields and Faulting in Seismic Zones

—Measurements indicate that stress magnitudes in the crust are normally limited by the frictional equilibrium on pre-existing, optimally oriented faults. Fault zones where these limitations are frequently reached are referred to as seismic zones. Fault zones in the crust concentrate stresses because their material properties are different from those of the host rock. Most fault zones are spatially relatively stable structures, however the associated seismicity in these zones is quite variable in space and time. Here we propose that this variability is attributable to stress-concentration zones that migrate and expand through the fault zone. We suggest that following a large earthquake and the associated stress relaxation, shear stresses of a magnitude sufficient to produce earthquakes occur only in those small parts of the seismic zone that, because of material properties and boundary conditions, encourage concentration of shear stress. During the earthquake cycle, the conditions for seismogenic fault slip migrate from these stress-concentration regions throughout the entire seismic zone. Thus, while the stress-concentration regions continue to produce small slips and small earthquakes throughout the seismic cycle, the conditions for slip and earthquakes are gradually reached in larger parts of, and eventually the whole, seismogenic layer of the seismic zone. Prior to the propagation of an earthquake fracture that gives rise to a large earthquake, the stress conditions in the zone along the whole potential rupture plane must be essentially similar. This follows because if they were not, then, on entering crustal parts where the state of stress was unfavourable to this type of faulting, the fault propagation would be arrested. The proposed necessary homogenisation of the stress field in a seismic zone as a precursor to large earthquakes implies that by monitoring the state of stress in a seismic zone, its large earthquakes may possibly be forecasted. We test the model on data from Iceland and demonstrate that it broadly explains the historical, as well as the current, patterns of seismogenic faulting in the South Iceland Seismic Zone.     

Pore fluid pressure effects in anisotropic rocks: Mechanisms of induced seismicity and weak faults

Many observations and studies indicate that pore fluid pressure in the crustal rocks plays an important role in deformation, faulting, and earthquake processes. Conventional models of pore pressure effects often assume isotropic porous rocks and yield the nondeviatoric pressure effects which seem insufficient to explain diverse phenomena related to pore pressure variation, such as fluid-extraction induced seismicity and crustal weak faults. We derive the anisotropic effective stress law especially for transversely-isotropic and orthotropic rocks, and propose that the deviatoric effects of pore fluid pressure in anisotropic rocks not only affect rock effective strength but also cause variation of shear stresses. Such shear stress variations induced by either pore pressure buildup or pore pressure decline may lead to faulting instability and trigger earthquakes, and provide mechanisms for the failure of crustal weak faults with low level of shear stresses. We believe that the deviatoric effects of pore fluid pressure in anisotropic rocks are of wide application in studies of earthquake precursors and aftershocks, oil and gas reservoir characterization, enhanced oil recovery, and hydraulic fracturing.     

地壳深部稳定性——震源体破裂机制和摩擦滑动机制的综合研究

本文通过地壳应力测量结果和地震资料的综合分析,对深部应力状态与断层运动的关系作了讨论:进而应用库仑准则,推导了三维应力作用下完整岩体和已有的任意空间方向断层面的失稳条件及其滑动方式的解析表达式.通过建立描述岩体和已有断层稳定性的两个函数————破裂函数 Fm 和摩擦函数 Ff,给出了应用破裂机制和摩擦滑动机制综合分析地壳稳定性和失稳性态的方法:根据这种分析方法并结合华北平原区的水压致裂应力测量资料,以及孔隙压力、大地热流等观测结果,定量研究了本区地壳的稳定问题,计算并图示了地壳内破裂函数沿深度的分布,以及各种走向和倾向断层面上的摩擦函数和剪应力分布;计算中以 Byerlee 定律作为断层运动的约束条件,并考虑了地壳密度纵向非均匀性导致的垂直应力沿深度的非线性增长以及深部超静水压力的异常孔隙压力作用.结果表明,华北平原区地壳失稳性态主要表现为已有断层的滑动;伴有高剪应力降的断层运动的深度范围在8至2.0多公里之间:陡断层稳定性低于缓断层,其运动方式以走滑为主;本区 NNE-NE 走向的陡断层是一组易震断层,其震时错动为右旋走滑;孔隙压力的增长对地壳稳定性有显著的影响;华北平原区深部高异常孔隙压力是地震活动的一种重要背景.      

Effect of tidal stress on fault nucleation and failure of the 2007 Ms6.4 Ning’er earthquake

Based on calculations of the tidal Coulomb failure stress and investigations of the correlation between the Earth tide and the Ning’er earthquake sequence, the processes of fault nucleation and failure were simulated. In these simulations we consider the influence of tidal stresses using the rate- and state-dependent friction laws. Furthermore, the effects on tidal triggering due to the stress amplitude and periodic oscillation properties were investigated, and the triggering effects between the tidal normal and tidal shear stresses were compared. The results showed that the Ning’er earthquake sequence was a physical consequence of tidal effects. A transition period T₀ exists between the nucleation and failure processes of a seismic fault. When the period T of stress is equal to or becomes larger than T₀, the fault response becomes dependent on the periodic features of the loading stress; however, for T < T₀, the response of the fault is nearly independent of the period. Both the tidal normal and tidal shear stresses have similar effect in the nucleation and failure processes; the clock changes generally increase with the maximum amplitudes of the tidal stresses. Tidal normal and tidal shear stresses with positive amplitudes mainly induce earthquake triggering; however, the triggering effects induced by negative tidal stresses are smaller and faults are not sensitive to negative tidal stresses. Our results primarily reveal the physical mechanisms of tidal stress triggering.     

北京地区地应力测量与主要断裂稳定性分析

2008年汶川地震后,为查明北京地区现今地应力状态、评价断裂稳定性,相继在北京地区开展了5个深孔（600~1000 m）的水压致裂法地应力测量,并在适宜深度安装了地应力相对变化监测探头,建立了地应力变化监测台站.本文首先利用实测地应力数据分析了北京地区地壳浅表层应力状态,结果表明：（1）北京地区千米深度内,最大、最小水平主应力随深度增加梯度系数分别为0.0328和0.0221,侧压系数K_av和K_Hv值,最大、最小水平主应力之比K_Hh值与国内外已有认识基本一致,而水平向剪应力相对强度参数μ_m值较低;（2）北京地区最大水平主应力优势方向为近EW向,与华北地区构造应力场方向基本一致,同时受区内断裂活动等影响,存在与区域主应力方向偏差的局部应力场;（3）实测数据揭示的应力结构显示,北京地区地壳浅表层最大主应力（σ₁）总体为最大水平主应力（σ_H）,受区域构造演化以及测点附近断裂的影响,中间主应力（σ₂）与最小主应力（σ₃）所对应的实测地应力存在变化,但总体来讲,实测地应力数据揭示的应力结构与北京地区主要断裂性质基本相吻合.其次,基于实测应力数据,采用库仑摩擦滑动准则,结合拜尔定律,并取摩擦系数为0.2~1.0,初步评价了北京地区主要断裂稳定性,结果显示：（1）在摩擦系数取0.6~1.0条件下,北京地区现今应力状态尚未达到导致断裂失稳滑动水平,断裂不会出现失稳滑动现象;（2）摩擦系数弱化到0.4时,西峰寺钻孔应力状态满足断裂失稳滑动条件,揭示出八宝山断裂存在失稳滑动可能性,而夏垫-马坊断裂和黄庄-高丽营断裂附近测点应力状态将趋近满足断裂失稳滑动条件,表明这两条断裂有趋向失稳滑动可能性;（3）只有当摩擦系数弱化到0.2时,北京地区主要断裂才可能在现今应力状态出现断裂失稳滑动.本文的认识对北京地区乃至华北地区构造应力场、地震地质研究有重要参考意义.     

基于震源机制解分析邢台地震的发震构造

活动断层几何形状的确定为评估一个地区的地震危险性提供重要的理论依据,邢台老震区内构造背景复杂,前人对邢台地震的发震构造展开大量研究,取得丰富成果。通过震源机制节面聚类得到邢台地震发震断层的走向、倾角及其标准差,综合前人研究结果求取发震断层面的平均解;结合区域地壳应力张量,估计该断层的滑动方向及其误差,分析该区域的地震活动危险性。结果表明：邢台地震发震断层的走向为32.45°,倾角为79.44°,滑动角-153.96°,标准差为4.55°。该断层为走向NNE、倾向NWW的高倾角走滑型断层,而非正断性质的新河断裂。区域地壳应力场在断层面上产生的相对剪应力为0.83,相对正应力为0.59。该断层不是最大剪应力的断层面形状,但剪应力强度仍较大,表明该断层在地震能量积累和释放过程中仍起到必不可少的作用。     

大尺度雁列断层粘滑运动数值模拟

通过ANSYS软件建立二维雁列断层模型,采用粘弹性力学参数,建立摩擦系数接触单元,模拟10万年时间大尺度雁列走滑断层活动（地震相关活动）,分析挤压条件下的断层活动特征,研究结果表明：①断层时空区域不同,所受应力也不同,接近贯通区域重合地区所受应力较大,粘滑运动剧烈,由贯通区域向断层两侧逐渐延伸,所受应力依次减小;②摩擦系数越小,地震发生频率越高,地震运动周期越短,则位错量相对较小,易发生震级较小地震;摩擦系数越大,地震发生频率越低,地震运动周期越长,则位错量相对较大,易发生震级较大地震;③给定的边界挤压速率越大,地震发生频率越高,地震运动周期越短,则位错量增大,易发生震级较大地震。     

Internal structures and high-velocity frictional properties of a bedding-parallel carbonate fault at Xiaojiaqiao outcrop activated by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

This paper reports internal structures of a bedding-parallel fault in Permian limestone at Xiaojiaqiao outcrop that was moved by about 0.5 m during the 2008 M_W7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. The fault is located about 3 km to the south from the middle part of Yingxiu-Beichuan fault, a major fault in the Longmenshan fault system that was moved during the earthquake. The outcrop is also located at Anxian transfer zone between the northern and central segments of Yingxiu-Beichuan fault where fault system is complex. Thus the fault is an example of subsidiary faults activated by Wenchuan earthquake. The fault has a strike of 243° or N63°E and a dip of 38°NW and is nearly optimally oriented for thrust motion, in contrast to high-angle coseismic faults at most places. Surface outcrop and two shallow drilling studies reveal that the fault zone is several centimeters wide at most and that the coseismic slip zone during Wenchuan earthquake is about 1 mm thick. Fault zone contains foliated cataclasite, fault breccia, black gouge and yellowish gouge. Many clasts of foliated cataclasite and black gouge contained in fault breccia indicate multiple slip events along this fault. But fossils on both sides of fault do not indicate clear age difference and overall displacement along this fault should not be large. We also report results from high-velocity friction experiments conducted on yellowish gouge from the fault zone using a rotary shear low to high-velocity frictional testing apparatus. Dry experiments at normal stresses of 0.4 to 1.8 MPa and at slip rates of 0.08 to 1.35 m/s reveal dramatic slip weakening from the peak friction coefficient of around 0.6 to very low steady-state friction coefficient of 0.1-0.2. Slip weakening parameters of this carbonate fault zone are similar to those of clayey fault gouge from Yingxiu-Beichuan fault at Hongkou outcrop and from Pingxi fault zone. Our experimental result will provide a condition for triggering movement of subsidiary faults or off-fault damage during a large earthquake.     

The October 11, 1999 and November 08, 2006 Beni Suef Earthquakes

Two felt moderate-sized earthquakes with local magnitudes of 4.9 on October 11, 1999 and 4.3 on November 08, 2006 occurred southeast of Beni Suef and Cairo cities. Being well recorded by the digital Egyptian National Seismic Network (ENSN) and some regional broadband stations, they provided us with a unique opportunity to study the tectonic process and present-day stress field acting on the northern part of the Eastern Desert of Egypt. In this study, we analyze the main shocks of these earthquakes and present 15 well recorded aftershocks (0.9 ≤ ML ≤ 3.3) which have small errors on both horizontal and vertical axes. The relocation analysis using the double difference algorithm clearly reveals a NW trending fault for the 1999 earthquake. The spatial distribution of its aftershocks indicates a propagation of rupture from the SW towards the NW along a fault length ~5 km dipping nearly ~40°SW. We also determined the focal mechanisms of the two main shocks by two methods (polarities and amplitudes ratios of P, S_V and S_H and regional waveform inversion). Our results indicate a normal faulting mechanism with a slight shear component for the first event, while pure normal faulting for the second one. The spatial distribution of the 1999 aftershocks sequence along with the retrieved focal mechanism confirmed the NW plane as the true fault plane. While for the 2006 event, the few aftershocks do not reveal any fault geometry; its focal mechanism indicated a pure normal fault nearly trending WNW-ESE that corresponds more likely to the extension of the 1999 earthquake fault. The seismicity distribution between the two earthquake sequences reveals a noticeable gap that may be a site of a future event. The NNE-SSW extensional stress indicated by the mechanisms of these events is in agreement with the regional stress field and the rifting of the northern Red Sea in its northern branches (Gulf of Suez and Gulf of Aqaba). The source parameters (seismic moment, moment magnitude, fault radius, stress drop and displacement across the fault) were also estimated and compared based on both the regional waveform inversion and the displacement spectra and interpreted in the context of the tectonic setting. The obtained results imply a reactivation of the pre-exiting NW-SE faults as a result of extensional deformation from the northern Red Sea-Gulf of Suez rifts.     

汶川MW7.9地震余震序列触发机制研究

余震触发机制的Dieterich解析模型被广泛应用于区域地震活动性的定量分析以及依赖时间的概率地震预测模型的建立等方面. 基于滑移速率和状态相依赖的摩擦定律和弹簧-滑块模型, 从Dieterich断层滑移速率方程出发, 给出了静态应力扰动下触发地震的时钟提前或推后的近似解, 从而明确地阐明了触发地震的产生机制与断层的演化过程密切相关, 并与传统位错模型下库仑应力扰动时间提前或推后量作了比较. 采用对数线性拟合方法求得了汶川M_W7.9主震后余震序列持续时间, 符合Dieterich理论结果. 以汶川余震序列为例, 给出了两种不同的应力扰动模式在该余震序列中的应用. 结果表明, 经典Dieterich扰动解无法给出主震发生后即时余震数量的异常增加, 而考虑主震前后剪应力速率变化的Dieterich分段解则可反映出余震发生率及个数随时间的演化特征.      

Analysis of Anomalous Characteristics of Regional Crustal Deformation before the September 16th, 2019 Zhangye MS5.0 Earthquake, Gansu, China

To study the crustal movement in the vicinity of the epicenter before the Zhangye M_S5.0 earthquake in 2019, the characteristics of crustal deformation before the earthquake are discussed through the GPS velocity field analysis based on the CMONOC data observed from GPS. The baseline time series between two continuous GPS stations and the strain time series of an area among several stations are analyzed in the epicenter area. The resulting time series of baseline azimuth around the epicenter reflects that the energy of the fault in the northern margin of Qilian Mountain is accumulated continuously before 2017. Besides, the movement trend of azimuth slows down after 2017, indicating the stress accumulation on both sides of the seismogenic fault zone has reached a certain degree. The first shear strain and EW-direction linear strain in the epicentral area of the Zhangye M_S5.0 earthquake remain steady after 2017, and the surface strain rate decreases gradually after 2016. It is illustrated that there is an obvious deformation loss at the epicentral region three years before the earthquake, indicating that a certain degree of strain energy is accumulated in this area before the earthquake.     

重力位能同震变化及其构造意义——以青藏高原地区为例

地震除了以地震波的形式释放能量之外,地震还会使地球产生永久变形,该变形将使重力位能产生变化.研究表明,地壳的重力位能的同震变化能够很好地揭示构造活动的拉张或挤压状态.本文首先基于球对称、非自转、弹性和各向同性(SNREI)地球的点源位错理论,提出了一种有效的计算重力位能的同震变化的方法,该方法不仅适用于剪切型地震,而且适用于拉张型地震;然后研究了青藏高原地区在1976-2013年间发生的地震对地壳重力位能的同震变化的影响.结果表明,青藏高原中部和西部的地震使得整个地壳的位能减小,而东部的地震使位能增大;位能的减小和增大对应了该地区构造活动的拉张和挤压状态;并且1999-2013年期间较1976-1998年期间地震对地壳重力位能的影响加剧.     

断层演化过程中的周期和非周期地震滑移及非地震滑移一维断层模型分析

本文首先根据Dieterich和Ruina提出的含速率和状态的摩擦定律(Dieterich-Ruina定律), 基于一维弹簧-滑块模型推导了地震复发周期的解析表达式, 然后将该近似解与数值模拟结果以及Barbot等的相关研究进行了对比分析． 此外, 本文还利用数值模拟与理论分析研究了断层周期和非周期演化的力学成因机制以及非地震滑移形成的另类力学机制, 并讨论了一维弹簧-滑块模型的优点及其局限性． 结果表明: ① 震后滑移和自加速/成核阶段的持续时间在整个演化过程中不能被忽略; ② 在修正后的复发周期模型中, 复发周期的长短除了与断层特征尺度、 作用于断层面上的有效正应力和远场加载速率相关外, 还受Dieterich-Ruina定律中摩擦参数的取值以及临界滑移距离的影响; ③ 当给定各个物理参数和几何参数时, 目前所得到的解析近似解可以很好地估计地震的复发周期, 其相对误差可小于5%; ④ 在断层演化过程中, 施加剪切应力加载会产生非周期的地震滑移, 而在自加速/成核阶段后期或震后滑移阶段早期, 施加较大的剪切应力加载, 则会出现非地震滑移．      

Rapid report of June 1, 2022 MW 5.9 Lushan earthquake,China with geodetic and teleseismic data

Timely response to earthquake characterization can facilitate earthquake emergency rescue and further scientific investigations. On June 1, 2022, M_W 5.9 earthquake occurred in the southern area of the Longmenshan fault zone. This event also happened at the south end of the Dayi seismic gap and is the largest earthquake that has occurred in this seismic gap since the 1970 M 6.2 event. The slip-distribution model constrained by the seismic waveforms suggests a thrust-dominated faulting mechanism. The main slip occurs at a depth of ～14 ?km, and the cumulative energy is released in the first 6 ?s. The variations of Coulomb stress caused by the mainshock show a positive change in the southwest area of the Dayi seismic gap, indicating possible activation of future earthquakes. In addition, we emphasize the importance of rapid estimation of deformation for near-field hazard delineation, especially when interferometric radar fails to image coseismic deformation in a high relief terrain.     

汶川MS8.0地震前后龙门山及其 邻区构造应力场时空分布特征

基于2000年7月—2009年6 月龙门山及其邻区的震源机制解资料, 采用Gephart & Forsyth方法, 反演得到了汶川地震前后该地区构造应力主方向的空间分布. 结果显示: 沿鲜水河断裂带及其北部地区, 构造应力场变化显著, 区域构造应力的最大主应力方位由NNW变为NW, 断层错动类型由正断型兼走滑型变为走滑型; 沿龙门山断裂带的构造应力最大主应力方向仍然为近EW和NE向, 但其EW向范围在向NE方向扩张, 其南部汶川地震震中附近异常带范围在收缩. 另一方面, 对上述时间段龙门山及其邻区不同时段构造应力场的反演结果表明, 其构造应力场的特征参数(包括R值、 应力洛德参数μ′以及3个主应力的方位角和仰角等)均从第13时窗开始出现显著变化, 这表明第13时窗(2006年12月—2007年1月)是一个构造应力显著变化的特征窗口. 在该时窗内, 地震能量积累达到一个临界状态, 是汶川M_S8.0地震发生的时间节点.