气候与土地利用变化对水文水资源的影响研究

水资源短缺和水患灾害已成为全球关心的重大问题。气候与土地利用变化对流域水资源和旱涝的影响以及由此产生的社会经济后果已引起人类社会的广泛关注。深入综合地开展这方面的研究对国民经济建设和可持续发展规划决策有重要的意义。通过分析总结已进行的有关研究工作 ,对该领域的研究进展作了简要回顾 ,讨论了现有工作的不足和今后的研究内容和方法。     

Climate change and forced migrations: An effort towards recognizing climate refugees

The scientific community has long urged for the broadening of the refugee term, which remains identical since the 1951 Refugee Convention, despite strong evidence showing connections between forced migration and climate change. Even though the concept of climate and environmental refugees is not legally recognized, the discussion concerning these definitions is increasing. Furthermore, with the intensification of global climate change, a more specific subcategory of refugees began to be popularized: climate change refugees. A climate change refugee is any person who has been forced to leave their home, or their country, due to the effects of severe climate events, being forced to rebuild their lives in other places, despite the conditions to which they are subjected.     

Exploring the geophysical and socio-economic determinants of land cover changes in Eastern Mau forest reserve and Lake Nakuru drainage basin,Kenya

Understanding the linkages between the biogeophysical and socio-economic processes that operate at different spatial and temporal scales is important for land cover change mitigation. This study analysed several factors that explained the forest-shrubland conversions, grassland conversions and cropland expansions in Lake Nakuru drainage basin and Eastern Mau forest reserve in Kenya from 1985 to 2011. Logistic regression models were developed using a combination of remote sensing-based land cover data, and geographical information systems-based geophysical and socio-economic data (i.e., temperature, rainfall, elevation, slope, aspect, topographic wetness, curvature, soil pH, soil cation exchange capacity (CEC), population density and distance to road, river and town). The results were varied; for example, in the period 1985–2000, forest-shrubland conversions were linked to distance to road), distance to town, soil pH, soil CEC, rainfall, topographic wetness, curvature and aspect. The same factors, in addition to slope and distance to river, also determined the likelihood of forest-shrubland conversions in the period 2000–2011. Overall, significance of the determining factors varied depending on time and nature of land cover change. For example, topographical factors influenced grassland conversions in the period 1985–2000, while soil-related factors did not. But in the period 2000–2011, the converse was true. Therefore, policies for restoration, conservation and sustainable management of critical ecosystems (e.g., forests) should be spatially targeted and time-specific. These results broaden our knowledge of land cover dynamics in this locality, and provide a base for effective environmental policy formulation, planning and management.     

Population growth and its spatial distribution as factors in the deforestation of Nang Rong, Thailand

Frontiers constitute a major source of global land cover change hot spots, with forests and grasslands being converted into agricultural uses. As such, frontiers provide an opportunity to see how people manipulate the land and their lives in the context of social, cultural and environmental constraints. This paper examines frontier settlement and land cover change in Nang Rong district, Northeast Thailand for the last half century. It uses a Cellular Automata (CA) model to explore the land cover consequences of alternative patterns of settlement in a setting where people establish dwelling units in nucleated villages and work agricultural plots that surround villages. Forested land around the center of a village is converted into agricultural uses in an inverse relationship to the distance from the village center, but frequently modified by biophysical conditions. Land at the center of the village may be reforested after the village is established as a source of shade as well as fruit and other products. Model variation in land cover change is more sensitive to the spatial reach of village households than their temporal reach, suggesting the important role that technology plays in how villagers travel to their fields (walking versus motorized transit).     

A partial instructional module on global and regional land use/cover change: assessing the data and searching for general relationships

Land use/cover change has occurred at all times in all parts of the world. Most affected and involved in these processes are the environmental spheres of water, soil, and vegetative cover, which are closely linked to geomorphology, climate, fauna, and especially human societies. These linkages between spheres are highly complex and, as of yet, incompletely understood. The most profound questions with respect to land use/cover and global change are: “What forces drive land use/land cover change?”, “What impacts — direct and indirect, now and in the future — do these changes have on the environment and on human society?” and “Can and should we, and if so, how, respond to these changes?” This partial teaching module, developed under the auspices of the Second Commission on College Geography of the Association of American Geographers, introduces students to the complexities inherent in these questions, but mainly focusses on the first of these. It illustrates the central role of the study of land land use/cover change within the large field of global environmental and climatic change, and is thus a good unit to introduce this area of interest.     

Dynamics of land use/cover changes and the analysis of landscape fragmentation in Dhaka Metropolitan, Bangladesh

Rapid urban expansion due to large scale land use/cover change, particularly in developing countries becomes a matter of concern since urbanization drives environmental change at multiple scales. Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, has been experienced break-neck urban growth in the last few decades that resulted many adverse impacts on the environment. This paper was an attempt to document spatio-temporal pattern of land use/cover changes, and to quantify the landscape structures in Dhaka Metropolitan of Bangladesh. Using multi-temporal remotely sensed data with GIS, dynamics of land use/cover changes was evaluated and a transition matrix was computed to understand the rate and pattern of land use/cover change. Derived land use statistics subsequently integrated with landscape metrics to determine the impact of land use change on landscape fragmentation. Significant changes in land use/cover were noticed in Dhaka over the study period, 1975–2005. Rapid urbanization was manifested by a large reduction of agricultural land since urban built-up area increased from 5,500?ha in 1975 to 20,549?ha in 2005. At the same time, cultivated land decreased from 12,040 to 6,236?ha in the same period. Likewise, wetland and vegetation cover reduced to about 6,027 and 2,812?ha, respectively. Consequently, sharp changes in landscape pattern and composition were observed. The landscape became highly fragmented as a result of rapid increase in the built-up areas. The analysis revealed that mean patch size decreased while the number of patches increased. Landscape diversity declined, urban dominance amplified, and the overall landscape mosaics became more continuous, homogenous and clumped. In order to devise sustainable land use planning and to determine future landscape changes for sound resource management strategies, the present study is expected to have significant implications in rapidly urbanizing cities of the world in delivering baseline information about long term land use change and its impact on landscape structure.     

Land transformation assessment using the integration of remote sensing and GIS techniques: a case study of Al-Anbar Province,Iraq

Human activities and climate changes significantly affect our environment, altering hydrologic cycles. Several environmental, social, political, and economical factors contribute to land transformation as well as environmental changes. This study first identified the most critical factors that affect the environment in Al-Anbar city including population growth, urbanization expansion, bare land expansion, and reduction in vegetation cover. The combination of remote sensing data and fuzzy analytic hierarch process (Fuzzy AHP) enabled exploration of land transformations and environmental changes in the study area during 2001 to 2013 in terms of long and short-term changes. Results of land transformation showed that the major changes in water bodies increased radically (94 %) from the long-term change in 2001 to 2013 because of water policies. In addition, the urban class expanded in two short-term periods (2001–2007 and 2007–2013), representing net changes of 46 and 60 %, respectively. Finally, barren land showed 25 % reduction in the first period because of the huge expansion of water in the lake; a small percentage of growth gain was observed in the second period. Based on the land transformation results, the environmental degradation assessment showed that the study area generally had high level of environmental degradation. The degradation was mostly in the center and the north part of the study area. This study suggested for further studies to include other factors that also responsible for environmental degradation such as water quality and desertification threatening.     

Complexity theory, spatial simulation models, and land use dynamics in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon

Our research questions and analytical approaches are used to examine coupled human-natural systems in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon. They are based on complexity theory and extend from our earlier work in Cellular Automata (CA) in which land use/land cover (LULC) change patterns were spatially simulated to examine deforestation and agricultural extensification on household farms. The basic intent is to understand linkages between people and the environment by explicitly considering pattern-process relationships and the nature of feedback mechanisms among social, biophysical, and geographical factors that influence LULC dynamics within the study area. In this research, we describe how our CA modeling approach emphasizes the human dimensions of LULC change by including socio-economic and demographic characteristics at the household-level along with biophysical data that describe the resource endowments of farms, geographic accessibility of farms to roads and communities, and the evolving nature of human-environment interactions over time and space in response to exogenous and endogenous factors.A LULC change scenario is examined by comparing model outcomes generated for a base CA model and an alternative CA model to explore the effects of increases in household income on land use change patterns at the farm level, achieved as a consequence of improved geographic accessibility to roads and communities and increased off-farm employment as a household livelihood strategy. Growth or transitions rules in our CA model, as well as neighborhood associations are sensitive to socio-economic and demographic factors of households, resource endowments of farms, geographic accessibility, and the uncertainty associated with peasant farming in a frontier setting. Model outcomes indicate that increases in household income are associated with more land in pasture and more land being cultivated for crops as a result of greater access to agricultural markets. In addition, more land in secondary forest succession occurs as a consequence of greater access to roads and communities, thereby, affording a better opportunity for off-farm employment and greater levels of household income.     

北京城乡过渡区土地利用变化驱动力分析

在多时相遥感数据和实际调查数据的支持下，采用典型样带和样点相结合的研究方法，对北京西部城乡过渡区的土地利用/覆盖变化驱动力进行了研究。结果表明，研究区的土地利用/覆盖变化受到了不同层次、多种驱动力的综合作用，人类活动从整体上改变着城乡过渡区的景观特征，政策体制转变下的经济高速增长和快速的城市化过程是北京城乡过渡区土地利用/覆盖变化的根本原因。在这个过程中，城市投资和产业的转变与农村农业用地内部的结构调整相互结合，从城市和农村两个方向共同推动着北京城乡过渡区的土地利用/覆盖变化，而地形、交通等因素则从局部尺度上决定着土地利用/覆盖变化的方向。此外，人类个体的行为选择，尤其是就业和消费选择，也在一定程度上对北京城乡过渡区的土地利用/覆盖变化起着调整和修改作用。     

Climatic and anthropogenic drivers of land use/cover change in fragile karst areas of southwest China since the early 1970s: a case study on the Maotiaohe watershed

Land use/cover change and its driving forces has been one of the most important fields in global environmental change research since the 1990s. Karst areas are distributed extensively on the Earth’s surface and are usually characterized by a fragile eco-environment. In southwest China, karst landforms are fully developed and their eco-environment is highly fragile. Over the past decades, irrational land use practice has caused a series of alarming eco-environmental issues including forest clearing, soil erosion, and karst rocky desertification. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study land use/cover change in this area and its driving forces in order to re-build the damaged eco-environment and achieve sustainable land use. In this paper, the authors conduct a case study on land use/cover change and its natural and human driving forces since the early 1970s in southwest China’s Maotiaohe watershed. The results indicate that the land use/cover pattern in the study area has undergone a very complex change, which is a result of combined action of both natural and anthropological factors. In the 1970s and 1980s, climate change and fast population increase played dominating roles in the change of arable land, shrub land, grassland, and rocky desertification land. Since the early 1990s, economic development has gradually taken the place of population change to become the overwhelming human factor to go along with climate change in driving the land use/cover change, particularly the change in arable land, construction land, and rocky desertification land.     

Geoarchaeological Investigations in Mesoamerica Move into the 21st Century: A Review

Over the past thirty years, geoarchaeology has moved from the fringe to mainstream status within Mesoamerican archaeological investigations. This review focuses on works published since the year 2000. Five themes are identified as central to recent studies: (1) the correlation of environmental change and cultural history; (2) anthropogenic environmental impacts; (3) ancient land cover, land use, and diet; (4) archaeological prospection; and (5) provenance studies. These themes are often interwoven in the application of complex systems approaches that allow scientists to more accurately model the intricacies of ancient human–environment interactions.     

中国历史耕地变化及其对自然环境的影响*

农业开发已经直接或间接地影响并正在影响自然环境的许多方面,中国农业开发历史悠久,对自然环境造成的影响广泛而强烈,对认识人类活动导致的全球与区域环境变化具有代表性。文中总结了近年来基于考古和历史文献记录的中国历史耕地变化定量重建和耕地开发环境影响的研究成果。主要结论包括: (1)中国在历史耕地变化重建方面具有独特的优势,主要数据源包括田亩、税赋、人口等与耕地数量相关的数值记录,考古遗址点、聚落、路网、行政建制等与农业活动相关的信息,有关土地开发和农业生产的描述性记录等三大类。 (2)对全国尺度的耕地面积推断始于春秋战国时期,过去1000年以来已重建了省(路)域的垦殖率,过去300年基于历史记录重建的东北、华北等区域垦殖率的分辨率已到县,在重建基础上利用分配模型获得的过去300年格网化垦殖率的分辨率可达10 km×10 km甚至1 km×1 km。相比于当前广泛使用的国际数据集,这些区域定量重建结果更为准确。(3)历史时期中国耕地的3次大规模扩张分别主要出现在西汉、两宋和清中叶,与此相对应,植被破坏和水土流失从北方地区扩展到南方地区,从平原低地扩展到低山丘陵、深山地区;过去300年耕地变化导致了碳排放的增加和可辨识的区域气候变化。未来中国的历史耕地变化重建及其对环境影响研究,应与国际过去土地利用/覆盖研究衔接,研究重点为延长历史耕地重建时限、提高重建单元的空间分辨率和改进耕地格网化分配模型。     

我国北方干旱化研究——面向国家需求的全球变化科学问题

近几十年来 ,全球环境变化已经成为国际社会关注的焦点。中国也面临一系列与此相关的重大生存环境问题。其中最为突出的是北方地区的干旱化。其主要表现为 :降水量减少 ,雪线高度抬升 ,湖泊萎缩 ,河网干枯 (特别如黄河断流 ) ,土地荒漠化 ,生态系统退化等等。这些问题已经成为国民经济发展的严重障碍。北方干旱化是怎样形成的 ?其未来发展趋势如何 ?将对中国的生存环境和社会经济可持续发展产生什么影响 ,应采取什么对策 ?政府和公众迫切要求回答这些与社会发展和人民生活密切相关的重大问题。文中分析了北方干旱化问题的性质 ,提出了面对国家需求应解决的关键科学问题和主要研究内容 ,简要介绍了在国家重点基础研究规划项目的支持下 ,近年来的主要研究进展 ,其中包括北方地区不同时间尺度干湿变化的规律和干旱化的证据 ,全球增暖和人类活动 (主要是水土资源的利用 )对干旱化的影响 ,主要生态系统对干旱化的响应和适应以及组织有序人类活动 ,改善生态环境 ,缓解干旱化影响的虚拟试验的结果等。     

加强我国土地利用/覆盖变化及其对生态环境安全影响的研究——-从荷兰“全球变化开放科学会议”看人地系统动力学研究的发展趋势

综述了在荷兰阿姆斯特丹召开的"全球变化开放科学会议"的主要学术成果,从中分析了在全球变化研究的各个领域,人类活动在全球变化中所起作用的重要方面。在此基础上,阐述了我国如何加强在全球变化和可持续发展研究中,开展土地利用/覆盖变化及其对生态环境安全影响研究的重要方向。以此研究揭示土地利用变化的驱动力,土地覆盖变化的生态效应,土地利用/覆盖格局对生态环境安全的影响机理。着眼我国生态系统对全球变化的可能响应,重构了我国生态环境安全条件下的土地利用/覆盖的空间宏观格局。     

Satellite-based assessment of large-scale land cover change in Asian arid regions in the period of 2001–2009

Arid regions in Asia are commonly characterized by rapidly growing populations with limited land resources and varying rainfall frequencies under climatic change. Despite being one of the most important environmental challenges in Asia, the changing aridity in this region, particularly due to large-scale land cover change, has not been well documented. In this study, we used rainfall data and a new land heterogeneity index to identify recent trend in land cover changes in the Asian arid regions. The result indicates a significant decreasing trend of barren lands and an increasing trend of vegetated lands. Although the potential land cover change is commonly believed to be strongly sensitive to rainfall change, such sensitivity has not been observed during the nine-year period (2001–2009) analyzed. Through the analyses of two separate periods (2001–2005 and 2005–2009), the sensitivity of rainfall to land cover change in arid regions is found to be dependent on the initial spatial heterogeneity of vegetated land cover. The approach used and the findings in this study represent an important step toward better understanding of large-scale land cover change in the Asian arid regions, and have the potential to predict future land cover change under various climate change scenarios.     

Nature–society and development: social, cultural and ecological change in Nepal

This paper presents a theoretical framework for analyzing human–environment issues that examines shifting, dialectical relationships between social and power relations, cultural beliefs and practices, and ecological processes to allow an interdisciplinary, complex assessment of social and environmental change in Nepal. The purpose of this analysis is to capture the complexity and non-static nature of environmental and social change in the context of uneven development. Drawing from political ecology and feminist geography, this framework brings together scholarship on aspects of human–environment issues that are often pursued in isolation, yet all three processes, social–political relations, cultural practices and ecological conditions, have been acknowledged as important in shaping the trajectory of social and ecological change. I argue that a consideration of the articulations between them is necessary to understand first, how specific land management regimes arise and are dominant over time in specific places. And second, I examine the extent to which these regimes distribute resources equitably within communities, promote economic development and sustain ecological resilience. In this analysis, ecological processes are conceptualised as co-productive of social and cultural processes to explore their role in land management regimes without resorting to environmental determinist or similarly reductive paradigms. I present this framework through the example of natural resource management, specifically community forestry in Nepal, as it offers a rich case study of the relationships between the political economy of land use and the ecological effects of natural resource extraction.     

Hydrological situation of a typical watershed in the Loess Tableland Area of China over the past 30 years

Due to deficient water resources in the Loess Plateau, watershed management plays a very important role, not only for ecological and environmental protection but also for the social development of the region. To better understand the hydrological and water resource variations in the typical watershed of the Loess Plateau and the Qinghe River Basin, the influences of land cover and climate change were analysed, and a SWAT model was built to simulate the response of the hydrological situation to land cover changes that have occurred over the past 30 years. The results demonstrated that the main land cover change occurring in the Qinghe River Basin was the conversion of land cover from grassland to woodland and farmland from the late 1980s to 2010. Woodland and farmland took 87.36 and 10.55%, respectively, from the overall area transferred over 20 years and more than 18% of the total watershed area. Hydrological simulation results indicated that land cover played a predominant role in the hydrological variation of the Qinghe River Basin, although the effects of climate change should not be discounted. The significant changes in land cover could be superimposed by policy orientation and economic requirements. Although it is hard to evaluate the land cover changes and the corresponding hydrological responses in a simple language, related analyses have demonstrated an increasing trend of runoff in the dry season, while there is a somewhat decreasing trend during the flood season in the river basin. There results could be significant and provide a positive influence on both future flood control and the conservation of water and soil.     

An evaluation of the impacts of land surface modification, storm sewer development, and rainfall variation on waterlogging risk in Shanghai

Despite continuing efforts to upgrade the urban storm sewer system since the late 1950s, the City of Shanghai is still vulnerable to persistent rainstorm waterlogging due to excess surface runoff and sewer surcharge, which frequently cause significant damage to buildings and disruption to traffic. Rapid urbanization and associated land cover changes are the major factors contributing to waterlogging. However, it is unclear to what extent changes in rainfall variability over the past few decades are also involved. This paper investigates the combined impacts of land use and land cover change, storm sewer development, and long-term variations in precipitation. Evidence of persistent waterlogging is presented first. We then give an account of land surface modifications during the process of urbanization and the development of the city??s urban storm sewer system. Statistical analysis suggests that the increase in runoff coefficient due to conversion of lands from agricultural to industrial, commercial, and residential uses is a major factor driving greater waterlogging risk. In particular, historical analysis of aerial photographs reveals the rate and extent of modification to river networks in the past few decades. The natural drainage network has shrunk by 270?km, significantly reducing the city??s capacity to transport excess surface flow. In line with other studies, we find no significant overall trends in annual rainfall totals (at Baoshan and Xujiahui). However, seasonal and monthly rainfall intensities have increased. At the daily scale, we find that compared to pre-1980s: (i) there has been an increase in the number of wet days with precipitation exceeding 25?mm (Heavy Rainfall) and decrease in those below 25?mm and (ii) the number of consecutive wet days with precipitation maximum and average exceeding the threshold known to cause waterlogging shows an increasing trend. Since rainfall intensity is expected to increase under climate change, this could further compound the impacts of land use changes and place even greater pressure on the existing storm sewer system.     

Assessing the impact of master plan on the dynamicity and resilience of forest cover change: a study on Adina Deer Park (Forest), West Bengal,India

Assessing land use and land cover change as well as monitoring dynamic nature of forest cover plays an important role for the management of biodiversity and its native ecosystem. The present paper mainly focuses on the impact of master plan on dynamicity and resilience of Adina Deer Park since 1990–2017 using multi-temporal LANDSAT data. Supervised pixel and object oriented techniques and change detection method have been used for both pre (1990–2015) and post (2015–2017) master plan. Landscape metrics have also been analyzed to detect forest fragmentation applying fragstats software. Overall accuracies for both classified images of 2010 and 2017 were 81.25% and 84.12%. The forest cover changes map exhibits that dense forest and water bodies increased from 15.68 to 39.64 ha and 8.12 to 9.17 ha whereas sparse forest and bare land declined from 31.02 to 22.08 ha and 22.59 to 9.11 ha respectively. The result showed a significant increase in dense forestand sparse forest with annual growth rate of 20% and 15.97% after the implementation of master plan in 2015. This study may assist the planners and policy makers to adopt the environmental and ecological oriented strategies for sustainable management of ecosystems and biodiversity.

     

Reverse osmosis on a small barrier island: transformations of water,landscape, and vulnerability on Ocracoke Island,NC, USA

Globally, modifications to the landscape have drastically transformed social and ecological communities. The implication of global climate change for small islands and small island communities is especially troublesome. Socially, small islands have a limited resource base, deal with varying degrees of insularity, generally have little political power, and have limited economic opportunities. The physical attributes of small islands also increase their vulnerability to global climate change, including limited land area, limited fresh water supplies, and greater distances to resources. The focus of this research project is to document place-specific human–environmental interactions from a political ecology perspective as a means to address local concerns and possible consequences of global environmental change. The place in which these interactions are examined is the barrier island and village of Ocracoke, NC. I focus on the specific historical-geography of land and water management on Ocracoke as a means to examine relationships between local human–environmental interactions and environmental change. I provide an account of technological changes in potable water procurement and the paralleling development of island growth (i.e. people, buildings, tourism). Then, relying on interviews with island residents, I consider how advancements in local water infrastructure, specifically the installation of an additional reverse osmosis unit, are hinged on anticipated future economic development. Lastly the social dimensions of change are discussed with specific focus on the increase in housing density and overburdened septic drainage fields in relation to changing hydrologic processes with an examination of how all of these factors affect local vulnerability.