Impact of global warming on the interannual and interdecadal climate modes in a coupled GCM

In this study, we investigated the impact of global warming on the variabilities of large-scale interannual and interdecadal climate modes and teleconnection patterns with two long-term integrations of the coupled general circulation model of ECHAM4/OPYC3 at the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg. One is the control (CTRL) run with fixed present-day concentrations of greenhouse gases. The other experiment is a simulation of transient greenhouse warming, named GHG run. In the GHG run the averaged geopotential height at 500?hPa is increased significantly, and a negative phase of the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection-like distribution pattern is intensified. The standard deviation over the tropics (high latitudes) is enhanced (reduced) on the interdecadal time scales and reduced (enhanced) on the interannual time scales in the GHG run. Except for an interdecadal mode related to the Southern Oscillation (SO) in the GHG run, the spatial variation patterns are similar for different (interannual?+?interdecadal, interannual, and interdecadal) time scales in the GHG and CTRL runs. Spatial distributions of the teleconnection patterns on the interannual and interdecadal time scales in the GHG run are also similar to those in the CTRL run. But some teleconnection patterns show linear trends and changes of variances and frequencies in the GHG run. Apart from the positive linear trend of the SO, the interdecadal modulation to the El Niño/SO cycle is enhanced during the GHG 2040?～?2099. This is the result of an enhancement of the Walker circulation during that period. La Niña events intensify and El Niño events relatively weaken during the GHG 2070?～?2090. It is interesting to note that with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations the relation between the SO and the PNA pattern is reversed significantly from a negative to a positive correlation on the interdecadal time scales and weakened on the interannual time scales. This suggests that the increase of the greenhouse gas concentrations will trigger the nonstationary correlation between the SO and the PNA pattern both on the interdecadal and interannual time scales.     

The role of atmospheric internal variability on the prediction skill of interannual North Pacific sea-surface temperatures

The sensitivity of the sea-surface temperature (SST) prediction skill to the atmospheric internal variability (weather noise) in the North Pacific (20^°–60^°N;120^°E–80^°W) on decadal timescales is examined using state-of-the-art Climate Forecasting System model version 2 (CFS) and a variation of CFS in an Interactive Ensemble approach (CFSIE), wherein six copies of atmospheric components with different perturbed initial states of CFS are coupled with the same ocean model by exchanging heat, momentum and fresh water fluxes dynamically at the air-sea interface throughout the model integrations. The CFSIE experiments are designed to reduce weather noise and using a few ten-year long forecasts this study shows that reduction in weather noise leads to lower SST forecast skill. To understand the pathways that cause the reduced SST prediction skill, two twenty-year long forecasts produced with CFS and CFSIE for 1980-2000 are analyzed for the ocean subsurface characteristics that influence SST due to the reduction in weather noise in the North Pacific. The heat budget analysis in the oceanic mixed layer across the North Pacific reveals that weather noise significantly impacts the heat transport in the oceanic mixed layer. In the CFSIE forecasts, the reduced weather noise leads to increased variations in heat content due to shallower mixed layer, diminished heat storage and enhanced horizontal heat advection. The enhancement of the heat advection spans from the active Kuroshio regions of the east coast of Japan to the west coast of continental United States and significantly diffuses the basin-wide SST anomaly (SSTA) contrasts and leads to reduction in the SST prediction skill in decadal forecasts.     

Revisiting the intraseasonal,interannual and interdecadal variability of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific

This paper reviews the recent progress and research on the variability of tropical cyclones(TCs) at different time scales. Specific focus is placed on how different types of external forcings or climatic oscillations contribute to TC variability in the western North Pacific(WNP). At the intraseasonal scale, recent advances on the distinctive impacts of the Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO), the Quasi-biweekly Oscillation, and the asymmetric MJO modulation under different El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) states, as well as the influences of the Pacific–Japan teleconnection, are highlighted. Interannually, recent progress on the influences of the ENSO cycle, different flavors of ENSO, and impacts of Indian Ocean warming is presented. In addition, the uncertainty concerning interdecadal TC variations is discussed, along with the recently proposed modulation mechanisms related to the zonal sea surface temperature gradient, the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO). It is hoped that this study can deepen our understanding and provide information that the scientific community can use to improve the seasonal forecasting of TCs in the WNP.     

Interannual and interdecadal variability in United States surface-air temperatures, 1910-87

Monthly mean surface-air temperatures at 870 sites in the contiguous United States were analyzed for interannual and interdecadal variability over the time interval 1910-87. The temperatures were analyzed spatially by empirical-orthogonal-function analysis and temporally by singularspectrum analysis (SSA). The dominant modes of spatio-temporal variability are trends and nonperiodic variations with time scales longer than 15 years, decadal-scale oscillations with periods of roughly 7 and 10 years, and interannual oscillations of 2.2 and 3.3 years. Together, these modes contribute about 18% of the slower-than-annual United States temperature variance. Two leading components roughly capture the mean hemispheric temperature trend and represent a long-term warming, largest in the southwest, accompanied by cooling of the domain's southeastern quadrant. The extremes of the 2.2-year interannual oscillation characterize temperature differences between the Northeastern and Southwestern States, whereas the 3.3-year cycle is present mostly in the Western States. The 7- to 10-year oscillations are much less regular and persistent than the interannual oscillations and characterize temperature differences between the western and interior sectors of the United States. These continental- or regional-scale temperature variations may be related to climatic variations with similar periodicities, either global or centered in other regions; such variations include quasi-biennial oscillations over the tropical Pacific or North Atlantic and quasi-triennial oscillations of North Pacific sea-surface temperatures.The U.S. Government right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty-free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

副热带高空急流各中心强度时间变化及分析

利用NCEP再分析资料,分析了中纬度地区的副热带高空急流各中心200 hPa上的强度的季节、年际和年代际的变化.结果表明,高空急流各中心位置的季节变化形态不一致,表征强度的各特征参数的季节特征虽都呈现冬强夏弱的主要特征,各中心的变化特点在于:东亚中心的急流面积和风速都有较大的变化;非洲中心面积变化小,但风速变化较大;而北美中心急流面积变化较大,风速变化较小.也有各自不同的变化形态和季节转换特征,四季的各急流中心的变化均不一致.急流各不同中心的各季节的强度特征参数发生年际和年代际变化的时期虽不尽相同,但大致都存在6~8 a的振荡周期.     

江南雨季降水季节内演变及其年际、年代际变化特征

利用1961—2008年逐日降水资料,在对比我国东南部各地区气候态降水特征的基础上,着重探讨了江南地区(110~120°E、24~30°N)雨季降水的季节内变化特征及其年际、年代际变化规律。结果表明:1)江南雨季气候态降水的季节内变化具有明显的双峰型特征,两个峰值集中期分别是4、6月中旬前后。4月中下旬第一个降水峰值率先出现在江南地区,之后峰值降水南移,于6月上中旬华南地区达峰值集中期,之后强降水才逐渐北移,6月中下旬又回至江南地区,使江南地区降水达第二个峰值集中期。2)我国江南地区区域平均的双峰降水与4—6月的实际降水之间的相关系数达0.69,这表明双峰型降水确实反映了江南雨季降水的季节内演变特征。3)江南雨季降水双峰型的季节内变化特征具有明显的年际、年代际变化周期。年际变化周期为2~3 a,强信号主要集中在20世纪60年代后期到70年代中期以及80年代中期到21世纪初;年代际变化周期约为8~10 a,在整个时间域上都存在,最强信号集中在80年代初到90年代末期。4)年代际尺度上,江南雨季降水的季节内变化特征(双峰型态)具有隔代显著的特征,即20世纪60、80年代及21世纪初双峰型特征显著,而20世纪70、90年代双峰型特征不显著。     

东亚夏季PJ遥相关型的年际及年代际变化机理

利用夏季东亚地区500 h Pa高度场和菲律宾附近的降水场进行SVD分析,将东亚500 h Pa高度场对应的时间序列定义为PJ指数,该指数不仅清楚地反映PJ型的年际变化,而且反应出PJ型的年代际变化,即500 h Pa高度场型态在20世纪70年代末由"气旋、反气旋、气旋"型突变为"反气旋、气旋、反气旋"型。本文研究表明PJ指数的年际变化与ENSO事件有密切的联系:El Ni1o事件通过电容器充电效应使印度洋海温增暖,而增暖的印度洋海温在菲律宾海附近强迫出异常反气旋,并沿东亚沿岸激发出PJ遥相关型。而PJ型态的年代际变化与热带印度洋SST的持续增暖有关。虽然许多学者认为是菲律宾附近海温异常引起对流异常,并沿东亚沿岸激发出PJ遥相关型,但我们认为该区域的海温变化并不是造成PJ型年际和年代际变化的原因,而是由于该区域有反气旋(或者气旋)异常,从而辐射增加(减少),蒸发减弱(增加),温跃层下降(上升),SST变暖(变冷),该区域的海温变暖意味着对流是减弱的。本文进一步利用大气环流模式ECHAM5.4进行数值试验,结果表明:当热带印度洋增暖时,在菲律宾海附近强迫出反气旋,并沿东亚激发出"反气旋、气旋、反气旋"PJ遥相关型。     

马斯克林高压与华北盛夏降水的年际关系及其年代际变化

利用NCEP／NCAR、ERA-40再分析资料和中国160站盛夏（7、8月）降水资料,使用相关分析、合成分析等方法,分析了马斯克林高压（马高）与华北盛夏降水的年际关系及其年代际变化。结果表明：马高与华北盛夏降水在年际时间尺度上存在显著的负相关关系,这种显著的负相关关系从1974年以后开始减弱。在强关系阶段（1951-1973年）,马高与中国东部盛夏降水的显著负相关中心主要位于华北地区;在弱关系阶段（1974-2011年）,马高与华北盛夏降水的负相关关系变弱,与长江中下游地区的正相关关系变强。导致马高与华北盛夏降水年际关系发生年代际变化的原因是：中国东部地区（不）受来自马高的异常偏南气流影响,使得华北盛夏降水偏多（少）,两者关系偏强（弱）。马高与华北盛夏降水年际关系发生的年代际变化,是中国东部地区从20世纪70年代中期以后出现“南涝北旱”的原因之一。     

The Interannual Variability and Predictability in a Global Climate Model

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Instability of squall-inducing waves, global sea-surface temperature anomalies and climate change in tropical north Africa

Summary An inviscid form of the hydrodynamical equations is solved with enhanced horizontal shear, which is a synoptic feature consistent with stronger African Easterly Jet (AEJ) in Sahelian dry years, for unstable waves generated along the boundary between the two tropospheric air masses in tropical north Africa (i.e. the moist south-westerlies and the dry north-easterlies). Using a two-layer model of the atmosphere in order to correctly simulate the tropospheric synoptic situation in the sub-region, results show that the mode of the waves which is known to be fundamental to the development of West African squall lines is more unstable in dry years. This instability is found to be most-pronounced when the surface of discontinuity between the south-westerlies and the north-easterlies is at 700 mb level. Further, it is shown that in Sahelian dry years, the zone of these unstable waves shifts slightly southwards. This shift causes a deficit in rainfall in West African isohyet bands north of latitude 12°. The persistence of this deficit is linked with the continuous warming, in July, August and September of the 18-year period 1969–1986, of the three oceans (Indian, Pacific and South Atlantic) whose sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies influence rainfall in tropical north Africa. It is shown that anytime these oceans warm up anomalously, the strength of the AEJ is enhanced leading to the climate-change process of: SST anomaly, increased AEJ strength, southward shift of the zone of squall-inducing waves and consequent reduction in total annual rainfall north of latitude 12° in tropical north Africa.With 5 Figures     

Trends in global temperature

Statistical models consisting of a trend plus serially correlated noise may be fitted to observed climate data such as global surface temperature, the trend and noise representing systematic change and other variations, respectively. When such a model is fitted, the estimated character of the noise determines the precision of the estimated trend, and hence the precision of the estimate of the magnitude of the systematic change in the variable considered. The results of fitting such models to global temperature imply that there is uncertainty in the amount of temperature change over the past century of up to ± 0.2 °C, but that the change of around one half of a degree Celsius is significantly different from zero.The statistical models for climate variability also imply that the observed temperature data provide only imprecise information about the climate sensitivity. This is defined here as the equilibrium response of global temperature to a doubling of the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. The temperature changes observed to date are compatible with a wide range of climate sensitivities, from 0.7 °C to 2.2 °C. When data uncertainties are taken into account, the interval widens even further.     

The propagation characteristics of interannual low-frequency oscillations in the tropical air-sea system

The time series of sea surface temperature (SST), sea level pressure (SLP), zonal wind (U) and total cloudiness (CA), for the period of 1950-1979, over a 8o×8o grid-point latitudinal belt between 32oS and 32oN are made from COADS (Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set). The time harmonic analysis and power spectra analysis show that there exist quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), three and half years oscillation (SO), five and half years oscillation (FYO) and eleven years oscillation (EYO) in these time series. The main propagation characteristics of these interannual low-frequency oscillations are as follows:(1) The variance analysis of SST shows that there is an active region of QBO and SO (with maximum variance), coming from the southwestern part of the subtropical Pacific, stretching eastward up to the west coast of South America, and then northward to the eastern equatorial Pacific. The QBO and SO disturbances of SST follow the same route and cause the anomaly of SST (El Nino and period of cold water) in the eastern equatorial Pacific.(2) Either the QBO or SO of SST can cause El Nino events, although it is easier when they are situated in the same phase of warm water at the eastern equatorial Pacific. The FYO of SST seems to be a standing oscillation. It plays an important role on the formation of strong El Nino events or strong cold water events.(3) The QBO and SO of U propagate eastward along the equator. The origin of QBO and SO may at least be traced as far as the western Indian Ocean. While they propagate along the equator, it strengthens two times at 90oE and the western Pacific, respectively. Like SST, the FYO of U is somehow a standing oscillation.(4) The Oscillations of U have a good coupling relationship with those of SST, while they propagate. When the QBO and SO of SST move to the east side of the eastern equatorial Pacific, it is the time for the QBO and SO of U to enter into the east part of the western Pacific.It is clear that, when we do research work on the formation of El Nino events, our consideration would not be confined to the tropics, it should cover the subtropical region in the southern Pacific. The features of the circulation and other oceanic states in this area are very important to the El Nino events.     

Quasi-periodic, global oscillations in sea level pressure on intraseasonal timescales

The sea level pressure (SLP) variability in 30–60 day intraseasonal timescales is investigated using 25 years of reanalysis data addressing two issues. The first concerns the non-zero zonal mean component of SLP near the equator and its meridional connections, and the second concerns the fast eastward propagation (EP) speed of SLP compared to that of zonal wind. It is shown that the entire globe resonates with high amplitude wave activity during some periods which may last for few to several months, followed by lull periods of varying duration. SLP variations in the tropical belt are highly coherent from 25°S to 25°N, uncorrelated with variations in mid latitudes and again significantly correlated but with opposite phase around 60°S and 65°N. Near the equator (8°S–8°N), the zonal mean contributes significantly to the total variance in SLP, and after its removal, SLP shows a dominant zonal wavenumber one structure having a periodicity of 40 days and EP speeds comparable to that of zonal winds in the Indian Ocean. SLP from many of the atmospheric and coupled general circulation models show similar behaviour in the meridional direction although their propagation characteristics in the tropical belt differ widely.     

Assessment of global warming on the island of Tenerife, Canary Islands (Spain). Trends in minimum, maximum and mean temperatures since 1944

Temperature variation is studied at different altitudes and orientation on the island of Tenerife, according to the trends in the mean, maximum and minimum at 21 meteorological stations. Reference series are obtained by sectors, along with a representative overall series for Tenerife, in which temperature shows a statistically significant growth trend of 0.09?±?0.04°C/decade since 1944. Night-time temperatures have risen most (0.17°C?±?0.04°C/decade), while by day they have been more stable. Consequently, the diurnal temperature range between day and night has narrowed. By regions, warming has been much more intense in the high mountains than the other sectors below the inversion layer between 600 and 1,400?m altitude, and progressively milder towards the coast. The temperature rise on the windward (north-northeast) slopes is greater than on the leeward side and could be related to the increase in cloudiness on the northern side. The general warming of the island is less than in continental areas at between 24 and 44oN, being closer to the sea surface temperature in the same area. This is probably explained largely by the insular conditions. In fact warming is more evident in the high mountains (0.14?±?0.07°C/decade), where the tempering effect of the ocean and the impact of changes in the stratocumulus is weaker, being similar to the mean continental values in the northern hemisphere.     

Trends in extreme summer temperatures at Belgrade

Summary Trends in extreme temperatures have been investigated for the Belgrade temperature record (1975–2003) to assess how an increase in the mean summer temperatures is related to changes in the extreme maximum and minimum temperatures. The rising mean summer temperatures at Belgrade are associated with a substantial increase in the occurrence of extreme maximum temperatures. Two statistical models for climate change (changing mean with constant standard deviation, and changing mean and standard deviation) indicated that the changing mean was dominant, because the observed trend in standard deviation was small.     

西南季风期间斯里兰卡降水的年代际、年际变化及其与热带印度洋的联系

本文主要研究了1979—2016期间斯里兰卡在西南季风期间降水的年代际、年际变化以及与印度洋海温的联系.首先用经验正交的方法分析了斯里兰卡以及周边地区降水的时空分布,发现前两个模态能够解释超过70%的方差.其中第一模态为均一模态,且其PC1以及斯里兰卡7 a滑动平均降水序列都有年代际变化,降水异常在2000年前后异常偏多和偏少.通过合成分析发现2000年之后降水的异常减少与热带西部、中部印度洋的暖海温异常有关.暖海温异常通过调整经向环流引起了斯里兰卡上空的下沉运动,抑制了降水.在第二模态中,负的信号出现在斯里兰卡大部分地区,只有在斯里兰卡北部海角很小地区出现了正的信号.PC2表现出了年际变化,且与热带东南印度洋海温异常有显著的关系.通过Gill-Matsuno响应,热带东南印度洋海温异常造成热带北印度洋上空的气旋性环流异常,引起了水汽的辐合,从而利于降水.     

中国南方春季降水年际变化强度的年代际变化及其与海温异常的联系

基于1979—2014年中国756个站逐月降水资料,以及ERA-interim再分析资料、哈德莱中心的逐月海表温度资料,通过EOF和相关分析等统计方法,研究了1979—2014年中国南方春季降水年际变化强度的年代际变化,以及与之相关联的环流特征和海温异常信号。结果表明:中国南方春季降水年际变化强度的空间分布在不同的年代有着明显的差异,1979—1994年间,华南(SC)春季降水的年际变化强度较大,这与该段时间内春季西太平洋海表温度异常(SSTA)以及前期冬季南太平洋海温三极子(SPT)年际变化强度较大有关,西太平洋(WP)的冷(暖)SSTA会在局地激发出异常的下沉(上升)运动以及反气旋性(气旋性)环流,并通过一个垂直环流,使得华南地区出现异常的上升(下沉)运动,导致华南地区春季降水增多(减少),前冬的SPT则通过影响春季WP的SSTA从而间接影响华南的春季降水。而1995—2006年间,则是长江中下游地区(YZR)春季降水的年际变化强度更强,这可能是与这一时期年际变化加强的春季南印度洋偶极子(SIOD)有关,春季SIOD为正(负)位相时,副高异常偏强(弱)、偏西(东),有(不)利于太平洋上的水汽向长江中下游地区输送,同时中高纬西伯利亚高压脊偏弱(强),东亚大槽较浅(深),干冷空气偏北(南),使得长江中下游地区降水偏多(少)。     

Interannual and Interdecadal Variability of Winter Precipitation over China in Relation to Global Sea Level Pressure Anomalies

Based on the method of rotated principal component (RPC) analysis and wavelet transforms, the win-ter precipitation from 36 stations over China for the period 1881-1993 is examined. The results show thatthe three leading space-time modes correspond, in sequence, to winter rainfall anomalies over the reaches ofthe Yangtze River, the bend of the Yellow River, and the northeastern region of China. The three modes ex-hibit interannual oscillations with quasi-biennial and 8-year periods as well as interdecadal oscillationswith 16- and 32-year periods. The interannual oscillation (＜ 10 years) occurs in phase over the differentareas, and its maximum amplitude migrates northward considerably with prominent interdecadal variations.However, the interdecadal oscillations (10-32 years) are out of phase over the different regions, and theamplitude variations have the characteristics of stationary waves.The rainfall anomalies appear to be closely re lated to the anti-phase changes of mean sea-level pres-sure (SLP) over the Asian mainland and the North Pacific. When the SLP rises over the North Pacific anddecreases over the Asian mainland, the precipitation over East China increases noticeably. The linkage be-tween the rainfall over China and the SLP anomalies apparently results from the strength of the East Asianwinter monsoon and its associated temperature and moisture advection.     

The characteristics of 30–60 day oscillation and its relations to the interannual oscillations

The characteristics of 30-60 day oscillation (hereafter called LFO ) of the outgoing longwave radiation data (OLR) and its relations to the interannual oscillations of the sea surface temperature (SST) are investigated by using the daily OLR data for the period from January, 1979 to December, 1987 and the corresponding monthly SST data. II is found that the LFO the band the interannual oscillations of the SST monthly anomaly (SSTA) interact each oth-er and they all relate to the occurrence and development of El Nino events closely. Before El Nino event happens, it contributes to the SST’s warming up and to the SST’s quasi-biennial oscillation (called QBO for brevity) and three and half years oscillation (called SO for short) being in warm water phase in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific (ECP and EEP) that the LFO in the equatorial western Pacific (EWP) enhances and propagates eastward; When El Nino event takes place, the LFO, SSTA and SSTA’s QBO and SO in the EEP interact and strengthen each other; But the warmer SST and the SSTA’s QBO and SO in the warm water phase in the EEP contribute to the LFO's weak-ening in the equatorial Pacific. Moreover, these contribute to the SST in the EEP becoming cold and the SSTA’s QBO and SO in the EWP being in cold water phase and then impel the El Nino event to end.     

Seasonal to interannual climate predictability in mid and high northern latitudes in a global coupled model

The upper limit of climate predictability in mid and high northern latitudes on seasonal to interannual time scales is investigated by performing two perfect ensemble experiments with the global coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. The ensembles consist of six members and are initialized in January and July from different years of the model’s 300-year control integration. The potential prognostic predictability is analyzed for a set of oceanic and atmospheric climate parameters. The predictability of the atmospheric circulation is small except for southeastern Europe, parts of North America and the North Pacific, where significant predictability occurs with a lead time of up to half a year. The predictability of 2 m air temperature shows a large land–sea contrast with highest predictabilities over the sub polar North Atlantic and North Pacific. A combination of relatively high persistence and advection of sea surface temperature anomalies into these areas leads to large predictability. Air temperature over Europe, parts of North America and Asia shows significant predictability of up to half a year in advance. Over the ice-covered Arctic, air temperature is not predictable at time scales exceeding 2 months. Sea ice thickness is highly predictable in the central Arctic mainly due to persistence and in the Labrador Sea due to dynamics. Surface salinity is highly predictable in the Arctic Ocean, northern North Atlantic and North Pacific for several years in advance. We compare the results to the predictability due to persistence and show the importance of dynamical processes for the predictability.