用应变积累释放模型研究中国大陆地块分区地震活动

依据活动地块假说及活动边界的划分,对中国大陆地震活动进行分区．在此基础上,应用应变积累释放模型,通过地震应变积累释放的计算,研究了中国大陆各活动地块分区的地震活动性,初步探讨了各地块的地震活动阶段划分．此外,还对应变积累释放模型的应用前提条件进行了必要的讨论,并对模型结果中可能出现的问题给予一定分析．     

Seismicity research in the subregions of Chinese mainland using strain accumulating and releasing model based on G-R relation

Introduction Earthquake activity analysis in different sub-regions in Chinese mainland shows that the dis- tribution of strong earthquakes exhibits the different spatial patterns in different periods. Seismic activity in the same earthquake area or seismic belt is self-similar to some extent, and the charac- teristic in time is some ″periodicity-like″. It shows that the frequency and intensity are quite dif- ferent in different periods (SHI et al, 1997). For a seismic region, strain is one…     

Movement and strain conditions of active blocks in the Chinese mainland

The definition of active block is given from the angles of crustal deformation and strain. The movement and strain parameters of active blocks are estimated according to the unified velocity field composed of the velocities at 1598 GPS stations obtained from GPS measurements carried out in the past years in the Chinese mainland and the surrounding areas. The movement and strain conditions of the blocks are analyzed. The active blocks in the Chinese mainland have a consistent E-trending movement component, but its N and S components are not consistent. The blocks in the western part have a consistent N-trending movement and the blocks in the eastern part have a consistent S-trending movement. In the area to the east of 90°E, that is the area from Himalayas block towards NE, the movement direction of the blocks rotates clockwisely and the movement rates of the blocks are different. Generally, the movement rate is large in the west and south and small in the east and north with a difference of 3 to 4 times between the rates in the west and east. The distributions of principal compressive strain directions of the blocks are also different. The principal strain of the blocks located to the west of 90oE is basically in the SN direction, the principal compressive strain of the blocks in the northeastern part of Qingzang plateau is roughly in the NE direction and the direction of principal compressive strain of the blocks in the southeastern part of Qingzang plateau rounds clockwisely the east end of Himalayas structure. In addition, the principal strain and shear strain rates of the blocks are also different. The Himalayas and Tianshan blocks have the largest principal compressive strain and the maximum shear strain rate. Then, Lhasa, Qiangtang, Southwest Yunnan (SW Yunnan), Qilian and Sichuan-Yunan (Chuan-Dian) blocks followed. The strain rate of the blocks in the eastern part is smaller. The estimation based on the stain condition indicates that Himalayas block is still the area with the most intensive tectonic activity and it shortens in the NS direction at the rate of 15.2±1.5 mm/a. Tianshan block ranks the second and it shortens in the NS direction at the rate of 10.1±0.9 mm/a. At present, the two blocks are still uprising. It can be seen from superficial strain that the Chinese mainland is predominated by superficial expansion. Almost the total area in the eastern part of the Chinese mainland is expanded, while in the western part, the superficial compression and expansion are alternatively distributed from the south to the north. In the Chinese mainland, most EW-trending or proximate EW-trending faults have the left-lateral or left-lateral strike-slip relative movements along both sides, and most NS-trending faults have the right-lateral or right-lateral strike-slip relative movements along both sides. According to the data from GPS measurements the left-lateral strike-slip rate is 4.8±1.3 mm/a in the central part of Altun fault and 9.8±2.2 mm/a on Xianshuihe fault. The movement of the fault along the block boundary has provided the condition for block movement, so the movements of the block and its boundary are consistent, but the movement levels of the blocks are different. The statistic results indicate that the relative movement between most blocks is quite significant, which proves that active blocks exist. Himalayas, Tianshan, Qiangtang and SW Yunnan blocks have the most intensive movement; China-Mongolia, China-Korea (China-Korea), Alxa and South China blocks are rather stable. The mutual action of India, Pacific and Philippine Sea plates versus Eurasia plate is the principal driving force to the block movement in the Chinese mainland. Under the NNE-trending intensive press from India plate, the crustal matter of Qingzang plateau moves to the NNE and NE directions, then is hindered by the blocks located in the northern, northeastern and eastern parts. The crustal matter moves towards the Indian Ocean by the southeastern part of the plateau.     

地壳破裂及地震的非线性讨论

地震是以岩石为介质的破裂所形成的,所以,了解岩石破裂发展的物理规律应该是研究地震活动标志的根本途径。该文根据岩石破裂理论及震源物理研究已取得的成果,进一步综合讨论地壳破裂（地震）过程的物理特性,并着重探讨岩体应变积累和释放的非线性等问题。     

青藏块体强震活动状态分析

强震活动状态分析与研究是地震形势跟踪分析的重要基础,以频次的角度分析和探讨青藏块体的强震状态特征,研究表明,青藏块体存在强震平静与活跃交替活动的状态特征,已经历5个平静与活跃交替活动的状态过程.2008年3月21日于田7.3级地震、5月12日汶川8.0级地震和2010年4月14日玉树7.1级地震的发生表明青藏块体强震活动已处于活跃状态.     

Model of rigid and elastic-plastic motion in intraplate blocks and strain status of principal blocks in Chinese mainland

Introduction The Chinese mainland is located in the southeastern part of Eurasia plate and encircled by India, Eurasia, Pacific and Philippine Sea plates. It is one of areas with the strongest tectonic de-formation, especially Qingzang (QinghaiXizang) plateau and NS tectonic zone where the tec-tonic activity is more intensive and intricate. The main part of tectonic activity of Chinese mainland includes a series of tectonic zones and active blocks divided by them. Therefore, the research…     

Preliminary division of active block boundary in Chinese mainland based on recent vertical crustal movement

IntroductionSituated in the southeastern part of Eurasia Plate and surrounded by the India Plate, Eurasia Plate, Pacific Plate and Philippine Sea Plate, Chinese mainland especially the area of Qinghai-Xizang (Qingzang) Plateau and the south-north tectonic zone is the area with the most intensive neotectonic deformation. The main component of tectonic activity in Chinese mainland is active blocks. Therefore, it is quite important to study active blocks in the research of tectonic activit…     

华北地区地震活动的连续小波时频演化特征研究

利用Morlet小波变换对华北地区的地震活动进行了小波动态周期分析。结果分析表明，地震活动既存在着比较稳定的周期，也具有一定时变性。华北地区1000年来，特别是1500年以来存在着比较稳定的300年周期和60年左右周期，还有一些不断随时间变化的周期现象，不断地产生和消失。小波分析揭示的历史地震活动的周期时变性，一方面提示我们，在依据地震活动周期规律外推地震趋势时，要应用近期周期分析结果和使用比较稳定的周期成份；另一方面也告诉我们，短周期突变的不可预知性对相对短趋势预测的结果准确度带来很大影响。     

根据历史地震和应变能积累释放过程分析山东地区近期地震活动趋势

根据历史地震和应变能积累释放过程对山东地区地震活动特征进行分析,认为该区目前处于地震活跃时段后期的能量剩余释放阶段,在此期间将以中等或中强地震活动为主。由现代地震活动特点分析认为,该区目前处于最近的一个应变能积累—释放过程中的释放阶段,这一阶段还可能持续4年左右,在此释放阶段中有可能发生多次4～5级乃至6级地震,但发生6级以上地震的可能性不大。     

汉中与安康盆地地震活动特征

根据块体内地震受块体边缘地震影响的观点,对汉中与安康盆地的历史及现代地震活动特点、规律进行了讨论和分析。得到这样结果：(1)块体内断陷盆地的地震活动水平将小于块体边界上的地震活动水平;(2)块体内盆地的地震活动,主要受块体边缘较大地震活动的影响,反映块体边界较大地震发生前后其附近构造的调整运动;(3)当与块体内盆地较近的块体交界带上发生大地震时,应注意盆地的地震危险。     

The application of seismic data with different precision in the determination of seismicity parameters

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Simulation of the active and quiet periods of seismicity

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张家口地震台地形变数字化与模拟资料对比研究

介绍了张家口地震台的基本现状及形变数字化仪器的改造情况。从长期趋势、短期趋势和固体潮形态变化等方面,对地形变模拟观测和数字化观测资料进行了对比,对资料的连续性、稳定性、一致性和固体潮观测精度进行了分析,得出数字化资料总体评价。并针对数字化观测存在的问题提出了具体建议。     

General characteristics of the recent horizontal crustal movement in Chinese mainland

1 Introduction of GPS observation dataThe Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC) is a major scientific project in China organized by China Seismological Bureau and paticipated by the Bureau of Surveying and Mapping of the General Staff, the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the National Bureau of Surveying and Mapping. Based on the observation data of 25 fiducial stations and 56 basic stations in CMONOC (Figure 1 and Table 1), collected from August 26 to September…     

青藏高原北部地区地震统计区划分及地震活动特征

地震统计区的划分是研究地震活动性的重要前提和基础,通过对青藏高原北部地区构造地质背景的分析,依据地球物理特征和强震活动特点,讨论和划分该区地震活动统计区,探讨研究区地震活动的复发特点、地震构造特征、潜在地震危险性及强度,分析研究区未来强震发生的强度和可能地点,结果表明,目前青藏高原北部地区处于第8个活跃期,仍存在发生强震的可能,且未来数年存在发生7级以上地震的可能,应密切东昆仑断裂带东段和祁连山中西段地区。     

中国大陆6级以上强震前的地震应变场研究

以地震应变场作为地震活动的变量,通过自然正交函数展开方法,计算了中国大陆6级以上强震前的地震应变场,提取出震前时间因子的异常变化.计算结果分析发现大地震前时间因子在平稳背景上会出现突跳上升或突跳下降变化,且震前地震应变场前4个典型场中至少有3个典型场会出现异常变化,具有多分量显示异常的特点,而异常出现的最早时间大约在震前3年,并且一些地震前出现短临的时间因子异常变化特征.通过震例研究表明用地震应变场分析地震活动异常,提取的时间因子异常结果比应用地震能量场更具有独特的优越性,并讨论了应变场与能量场的差异.

     

中国大陆地震活跃期及平静期判断的新方法与应用

基于小波变换方法,提出了刻画地震活动周期的指标一周期系数,该系数为描述地震活动周期显著程度的一种量度。应用该方法对中国大陆地区1890～2002年22年左右与10年左右周期(活跃期与平静期组成一个周期)内地震活动周期系数的变化过程进行了分析,结果表明,中国大陆地区的地震活跃期及7．5级以上地震的发生时段处于22年周期系数曲线的下降过程中,而平静期则与周期系数曲线的上升过程相对应。10年左右的周期系数将活跃期与平静期进行了大致分离,从而为地震活跃期的开始与结束的判断提供了一种全新的研究思路与方法。研究表明,中国大陆已处于20世纪以来的“第5活跃期”的尾声。     

中国大陆活动地块边界带地震活动过程及其趋势研究

通过计算前人研究所给出的中国大陆26条活动地块边界带上地震过程的变异系数, 分析了各边界带的地震活动类型, 结果表明中国大陆东部地区的边界带地震都表现为丛集过程, 西部地区大多是泊松过程或者准周期过程, 尤其是大陆板块俯冲作用强烈的边界带上地震活动主要呈现为泊松过程, 青臧高原北部和东部地区的边界带都表现为准周期过程, 并讨论了可能的物理机制。 并在以往研究的基础上, 基于对数正态分布函数, 计算了各边界带目前地震发生的累计概率以及未来五年内地震发生的条件概率, 探讨了各活动地块边界带的危险程度等。     

The depth of Moho in the mainland of China

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Accounting for source location errors in the bayesian analysis of seismicity and seismic hazard

A method is presented for incorporating the uncertainties associated with hypocentral locations in the formulation of probabilistic models of the time and space distributions of the activity of potential seismic sources, as well as of the resulting seismic hazard functions at sites in their vicinity. For this purpose, a bayesian framework of analysis is adopted, where the probabilistic models considered are assumed to have known forms and uncertain parameters, the distribution of the latter being the result of an a priori assessment and its updating through the incorporation of the direct statistical information, including the uncertainty associated with the relations between the actual hypocentral locations and the reported data. This uncertainty is incorporated in the evaluation of the likelihood function of the parameters to be estimated for a given sample of recorded locations. For the purpose of illustration, the method proposed is applied to the modelling of the seismic sources near a site close to the southern coast of Mexico. The results of two alternate algorithms for the incorporation of location uncertainties are compared with those arising from neglecting those uncertainties. One of them makes use of Monte Carlo simulation, while the other is based on a closed-form analytical integration following the introduction of some simplifying assumptions. For the particular case studied, accounting for location uncertainties gives place to significant changes in the probabilistic models of the seismic sources. Deviations of the same order of magnitude can be ascribed to differences in the mathematical and/or numerical tools used in the uncertainty analysis. The resulting variability of the seismic hazard at the site of interest is less pronounced than that affecting the estimates of activity of individual seismic sources.