Thresholds for irreversible decline of the Greenland ice sheet

The Greenland ice sheet will decline in volume in a warmer climate. If a sufficiently warm climate is maintained for a few thousand years, the ice sheet will be completely melted. This raises the question of whether the decline would be reversible: would the ice sheet regrow if the climate cooled down? To address this question, we conduct a number of experiments using a climate model and a high-resolution ice-sheet model. The experiments are initialised with ice sheet states obtained from various points during its decline as simulated in a high-CO₂ scenario, and they are then forced with a climate simulated for pre-industrial greenhouse gas concentrations, to determine the possible trajectories of subsequent ice sheet evolution. These trajectories are not the reverse of the trajectory during decline. They converge on three different steady states. The original ice-sheet volume can be regained only if the volume has not fallen below a threshold of irreversibility, which lies between 80 and 90% of the original value. Depending on the degree of warming and the sensitivity of the climate and the ice-sheet, this point of no return could be reached within a few hundred years, sooner than CO₂ and global climate could revert to a pre-industrial state, and in that case global sea level rise of at least 1.3 m would be irreversible. An even larger irreversible change to sea level rise of 5 m may occur if ice sheet volume drops below half of its current size. The set of steady states depends on the CO₂ concentration. Since we expect the results to be quantitatively affected by resolution and other aspects of model formulation, we would encourage similar investigations with other models.     

Snowpack model estimates of the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet and its changes over the twentyfirst century

The performance of a snow cover model in capturing the ablation on the Greenland ice sheet is evaluated. This model allows an explicit calculation of the formation of melt water, of the fraction of melt water which re-freezes, and of runoff in the ablation region. The input climate variables to the snowpack model come from two climate models. While the higher resolution general circulation model (ECHAM 4), is closest to observations in its estimate of accumulation, it fails to give accurate results in its predictions of runoff, primarily in the southern half of the ice sheet. The two-dimensional low-resolution climate model (MIT 2D LO) produces estimates of runoff from the Greenland ice sheet within the range of uncertainty of the Inter governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC1) 1995 estimates. Both models reproduce some of the characteristics of the extent of the wet snow zone observed with satellite remote sensing; the MIT model is closer to observations in terms of areal extent and intensity of the melting in the southern half of the ice-sheet in July and August while the ECHAM model reproduces melting in the northern half of the ice sheet well. Changes in runoff from Greenland and Antarctica are often cited as one of the major concerns linked to anthropogenic changes in climate. Because it is based on physical principles and relies on the surface energy balance as input, the snow cover model can respond to the current climatic forcing as well as to future changes in climate on the century time scale without the limitations inherent in empirical parametrizations. For a reference climate scenario similar to the IPCC's IS92a, the model projects that the Greenland ice sheet does not contribute significantly to changes in the level of the ocean over the twenty-first century. Increases in accumulation over the central portion of the ice sheet offset most of the increase in melting and runoff, which takes place along the margins of the ice sheet. The range of uncertainty in the predictions of sea-level rise is estimated by repeating the calculation with the MIT model for seven climate change scenarios. The range is –0.5 to 1.7 cm.     

Impact of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet interactions on climate sensitivity

We use the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM to show the effect of coupling interactive ice sheets on the climate sensitivity of the model on a millennial time scale. We compare the response to a 2×CO₂ warming scenario between fully coupled model versions including interactive Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet models and model versions with fixed ice sheets. For this purpose an ensemble of different parameter sets have been defined for LOVECLIM, covering a wide range of the model??s sensitivity to greenhouse warming, while still simulating the present-day climate and the climate evolution over the last millennium within observational uncertainties. Additional freshwater fluxes from the melting ice sheets have a mitigating effect on the model??s temperature response, leading to generally lower climate sensitivities of the fully coupled model versions. The mitigation is effectuated by changes in heat exchange within the ocean and at the sea?Cair interface, driven by freshening of the surface ocean and amplified by sea?Cice-related feedbacks. The strength of the effect depends on the response of the ice sheets to the warming and on the model??s climate sensitivity itself. The effect is relatively strong in model versions with higher climate sensitivity due to the relatively large polar amplification of LOVECLIM. With the ensemble approach in this study we cover a wide range of possible model responses.     

Impact of freshwater discharge from the Greenland ice sheet on North Atlantic climate variability

Using a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model, we investigated the impact of Greenland ice sheet melting on North Atlantic climate variability. The positive-degree day (PDD) method was incorporated into the model to control continental ice melting (PDD run). Models with and without the PDD method produce a realistic pattern of North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability that fluctuates from decadal to multidecadal periods. However, the interdecadal variability in PDD run is significantly dominated in the longer time scale compared to that in the run without PDD method. The main oscillatory feature in these experiments likely resembles the density-driven oscillatory mode. A reduction in the ocean density over the subpolar Atlantic results in suppression of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), leading to a cold SST due to a weakening of northward heat transport. The decreased surface evaporation associated with the cold SST further reduces the ocean density and thus, simultaneously acts as a positive feedback mechanism. The southward meridional current associated with the suppressed AMOC causes a positive tendency in the ocean density through density advection, which accounts for the phase transition of this oscillatory mode. The Greenland ice melting process reduces the mean meridional current and meridional density gradient because of additional fresh water flux, which suppress the delayed negative feedback due to meridional density advection. As a result, the oscillation period becomes longer and the transition is more delayed.     

Katabatic wind profiles over the Greenland ice sheet: observation and modelling

Profiles of wind and temperature have been observedabove the Greenland ice sheet, 90 km from its westernmargin, in July 1991. The terrain slopes downward tothe west. Measurements were performed with instrumentson a 30 m mast, combined with a Doppler SODAR and aRASS. Whereas the surface is usually at the meltingpoint, the temperatures in the free atmosphere areabove freezing. The depth of the boundary layer, in whichthe wind turns to the free atmosphere direction, is notmuch more than 100 m. The surface wind is always aboutfrom the southeast (hence with a downslope component),whereas winds from the southwest (with an upslopecomponent) often occur at the 100 m level.Mixing length profiles for momentum were estimatedby comparison of calculated and observed windprofiles. A good accordance between calculated andobserved wind speed was obtained. The neutralmixing length had a maximum of only a few metres, whichwas approached already at low height. The limiting valueis proportional to the 0.7-th power of the Froudenumber times a length scale obtained from thetemperature profile.     

On the turbulence structure in the stable boundary layer over the Greenland ice sheet

Turbulence measurements from a 30 m tower in the stably stratifiedboundary layer over the Greenland ice sheet are analyzed. The observationsinclude profile and eddy-correlation measurements at various levels. Atfirst, the analysis of the turbulence data from the lowest level (2 m aboveground) shows that the linear form of the non-dimensional wind profile(m) is in good agreement with the observations for z/L <0.4, whereL represents the Obukhov length. A linear regression yieldsm=1+5.8z/L. The non-dimensional temperature profile (h) at the2m level shows no tendency to increase with increasing stability. The datafrom the upper levels of the tower are analyzed in terms of both localscaling and surface-layer scaling. The m and the h values show atendency to level off at large stability (z/>0.4) where represents the local Obukhov length. Hence, the linear form of the functions is no longer appropriate under such conditions. The bestcorrespondence to the data can be achieved when using the expression ofBeljaars and Holtslag for m and h. The vertical profiles of theturbulent fluxes, the wind velocity variances and temperature variance arealso determined. The momentum flux profile and the profiles of wind speedvariances are in general agreement with other observations if a welldeveloped low-level wind maximum occurs, and the height of this maximum isused as a height scale.     

Multistability of the Greenland ice sheet and the effects of an adaptive mass balance formulation

The effect of a warmer climate on the Greenland ice sheet as well as its ability to regrow from a reduced geometry is important knowledge when studying future climate. Here we use output from a general circulation model to construct adaptive temperature and precipitation patterns to force an ice flow model off-line taking into consideration that the patterns change in a non-uniform way (both spatially and temporally) as the geometry of the ice sheet evolves and as climate changes. In a series of experiments we investigate the retreat from the present day configuration, build-up from ice free conditions of the ice sheet during a warmer-than-present climate and how the ice sheet moves between states. The adaptive temperature and accumulation patterns as well as two different constant-pattern formulations are applied and all experiments are run to steady state. All results fall into four different groups of geometry regardless of the applied accumulation pattern and initial state. We find that the ice sheet is able to survive and build up at higher temperatures using the more realistic adaptive patterns compared to the classic constant patterns. In contrast, decay occurs at considerably higher temperatures than build-up when the other formulations are used. When studying the motion between states it is clear that the initial state is crucial for the result. The ice sheet is thus multistable at least for certain temperature forcings, and this implies that the ice sheet not does not necessarily return to its initial configuration after a temperature excursion.     

Greenland Ice Sheet Contribution to Future Global Sea Level Rise based on CMIP5 Models简

Sea level rise （SLR） is one of the major socioeconomic risks associated with global warming. Mass losses from the Greenland ice sheet （GrIS） will be partially responsible for future SLR, although there are large uncertainties in modeled climate and ice sheet behavior. We used the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS （Simulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets） driven by climate projections from 20 models in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5） to estimate the GrlS contribution to global SLR. Based on the outputs of the 20 models, it is estimated that the GrIS will contribute 0-16 （0-27） cm to global SLR by 2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathways （RCP） 4.5 （RCP 8.5） scenarios. The projected SLR increases further to 7-22 （7-33） cm with 2~basal sliding included. In response to the results of the multimodel ensemble mean, the ice sheet model projects a global SLR of 3 cm and 7 cm （10 cm and 13 cm with 2~basal sliding） under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. In addition, our results suggest that the uncertainty in future sea level projection caused by the large spread in climate projections could be reduced with model-evaluation and the selective use of model outputs.     

Present and future climates of the Greenland ice sheet according to the IPCC AR4 models

The atmosphere?Cocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) used for the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) are evaluated for the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) current climate modelling. The most suited AOGCMs for Greenland climate simulation are then selected on the basis of comparison between the 1970?C1999 outputs of the Climate of the twentieth Century experiment (20C3M) and reanalyses (ECMWF, NCEP/NCAR). This comparison indicates that the representation quality of surface parameters such as temperature and precipitation are highly correlated to the atmospheric circulation (500?hPa geopotential height) and its interannual variability (North Atlantic oscillation). The outputs of the three most suitable AOGCMs for present-day climate simulation are then used to assess the changes estimated by three IPCC greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (SRES) over the GrIS for the 2070?C2099 period. Future atmospheric circulation changes are projected to dampen the zonal flow, enhance the meridional fluxes and therefore provide additional heat and moisture to the GrIS, increasing temperature over the whole ice sheet and precipitation over its northeastern area. We also show that the GrIS surface mass balance anomalies from the SRES A1B scenario amount to ?300?km³/year with respect to the 1970?C1999 period, leading to a global sea-level rise of 5?cm by the end of the 21st century. This work can help to select the boundaries conditions for AOGCMs-based downscaled future projections.     

Initial findings of recent investigations of air-snow relationships in the summit region of the Greenland ice sheet

The concentrations of⁷Be,²¹⁰Pb and major ions have been measured in acrosol and snow samples collected near Summit, Greenland (72°20N, 38°45W) in the summers of 1989 and 1990. Comparison to previous results from free tropospheric sampling of the North American Arctic indicates that some acrosol-associated species are as much as 50% depleted in near surface air over the Greenland Ice Sheet. It is shown that local atmospheric processes, particularly isolation of air masses beneath a near surface inversion, can exert dominant influence on the chemistry of surface-level air. These findings illustrate the extreme caution that must be taken if the results of surface-based atmospheric sampling are to be used to examine the relationship between the chemistry of the atmosphere and snow falling from it.Depth profiles of⁷Be in the surface layers of the snowpack near Summit suggest that up to half of the annual accumulation of snow may occur in the two to three month late spring-early summer period. If this is generally true for the Summit region, previous regional studies of snow chemistry that assumed linear dependence of age on depth to convert depth profiles to time series will have to be reassesed. However, spatial heterogeneity of near surface snow chemistry, that is currently not well understood, makes interpretation of the⁷Be profiles tentative at present.     

Sensitivity of a Greenland ice sheet model to ice flow and ablation parameters: consequences for the evolution through the last climatic cycle

Sensitivity experiments are conducted to test the influence of poorly known model parameters on the simulation of the Greenland ice sheet by means of a three dimensional numerical model including the mechanical and thermal processes within the ice. Two types of experiments are performed: steady-state climatic conditions and simulations over the last climatic cycle with a climatic forcing derived from the GRIP record. The experiments show that the maximum altitude of the ice sheet depends on the ice flow parameters (deformation and sliding law coefficients, geothermal flux) and that it is low when the ice flow is fast. On the other hand, the maximum altitude is not sensitive to the ablation strength and consequently during the climatic cycle it is driven by changes in accumulation rate. The ice sheet extension shows the opposite sensitivity: it is barely affected by ice flow velocity and the ice covered area is smaller for large ablation coefficients. For colder climates, when there is no ablation, the ice sheet extension depends on the sea level. An interesting result is that the variations with time of the altitude at the ice divide (Summit) do not depend on the parameters we tested. The present modelled ice sheets resulting from the climatic cycle experiments are compared with the present measured ice sheet in order to find the set of parameters that gives the best fit between modelled and measured geometry. It seems that, compared to the parameter set most commonly used, higher ablation rate coefficents must be used. Received: 19 September 1995 / Accepted: 30 May 1996     

Global dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheet

The total mass budget of the Antarctic ice sheet is studied with a simple axi-symmetrical model. The ice-sheet has a parabolic profile resting on a bed that slopes linearly downwards from the centre of the ice sheet into the ocean. The mean ice velocity at the grounding line is assumed to be proportional to the water depth. The accumulation rate is a linear function of the distance to the centre. Setting the total mass budget to zero yields a quadratic equation for the steady-state ice-sheet radius R. Analysis of the equilibrium states sheds light on the sensitivity of the ice-sheet radius to changes in sea level (S) and precipitation with respect to the present state (P_rel). For model parameters obtained by matching the analytical model to the present state of the Antarctic ice sheet, the sensitivity values are dR/dS = -2400 and dR/dP_rel = 4000 m/%. The model can also be used to study transient behaviour of the ice sheet. The characteristic relaxation time (e-folding time scale) is about 3500 years. Forcing the model with a sea-level and accumulation history over the past few hundred thousands of years yields Antarctic ice-volume curves that are similar to those obtained by comprehensive numerical modelling. The current imbalance predicted by the model corresponds to a sea-level rise of 0.25 mm yr^-1.     

Heat,momentum and moisture budgets of the katabatic layer over the melting zone of the west Greenland ice sheet in summer

The budgets of momentum, heat and moisture of the atmospheric boundary layer overlying the melting zone of the west Greenland ice sheet during an 8-day period in summer are calculated. To do so, the governing budget equations are derived and presented in terms of vertically averaged quantities. Moreover, stationarity is assumed in the present study. Measurements collected during the GIMEX-91 experiment are used to calculate the contribution of the different terms in the equations to the budget.During summer, a well developed katabatic wind system is present over the melting zone of the Greenland ice sheet. The budgets show that advection in the katabatic layer is small for momentum, heat and humidity, when the horizontal length scale of the integration area is sufficiently large (>50 km). This indicates that in principle one-dimensional atmospheric models can be used to study the boundary layer over the melting zone of the Greenland ice sheet. The background stratification plays a crucial role in the heat and moisture budget. Vertical divergence of longwave radiation provides one-third and the turbulent flux of sensible heat the rest of the cooling of the boundary layer. Moisture is added to the boundary layer by evaporation which is a significant term in the moisture budget. Negative buoyancy (katabatic forcing) dominates the momentum budget in the downslope direction. Coriolis forcing is important, stressing the large spatial scale of the katabatic winds on the Greenland ice sheet.     

大气河对南极冰盖及海冰的影响

南极冰盖与海冰对全球气候具有重要影响。大气河作为高纬度地区经向水汽输送的重要途径,其对南极冰盖与海冰的影响在近年来愈发受到重视。南极大气河通常形成于高压脊(阻塞高压)与温带气旋之间的强向极经向输送带内。低频的大气河活动为南极带来强降雪,有利于冰盖质量增加。然而,强暖湿水汽侵入同时会导致表面融化、冰架崩解和极端高温,对冰盖质量存在潜在负贡献。大气河携带极端暖湿水汽与强风通过热力与动力过程导致海冰密集度下降。目前,大气河的识别算法仍不完善,其对液态降水的直接影响、与南大洋的相互作用等仍不清楚,需要进一步明晰大气河对南极冰盖与海冰的影响机制,以准确预估未来大气河对南极冰盖物质平衡与海冰变化的作用。     

Climate sensitivity studies of the Greenland ice sheet using satellite AVHRR,SMMR, SSM/I and in situ data

Summary The feasibility of using satellite data for climate research over the Greenland ice sheet is discussed. In particular, we demonstrate the usefulness of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Local Area Coverage (LAC) and Global Area Coverage (GAC) data for narrow-band albedo retrieval. Our study supports the use of lower resolution AVHRR (GAC) data for process studies over most of the Greenland ice sheet. Based on LAC data time series analysis, we can resolve relative albedo changes on the order of 2–5%. In addition, we examine Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) passive microwave data for snow typing and other signals of climatological significance. Based on relationships between in situ measurements and horizontally polarized 19 and 37 GHz observations, wet snow regions are identified. The wet snow regions increase in aerial percentage from 9% of the total ice surface in June to a maximum of 26% in August 1990. Furthermore, the relationship between brightness temperatures and accumulation rates in the northeastern part of Greenland is described. We found a consistent increase in accumulation rate for the northeastern part of the ice sheet from 1981 to 1986.With 16 Figures     

The 1988–2003 Greenland ice sheet melt extent using passive microwave satellite data and a regional climate model

Measurements from ETH-Camp and JAR1 AWS (West Greenland) as well as coupled atmosphere-snow regional climate simulations have highlighted flaws in the cross-polarized gradient ratio (XPGR) technique used to identify melt from passive microwave satellite data. It was found that dense clouds (causing notably rainfall) on the ice sheet severely perturb the XPGR melt signal. Therefore, the original XPGR melt detection algorithm has been adapted to better incorporate atmospheric variability over the ice sheet and an updated melt trend for the 1988–2003 period has been calculated. Compared to the original algorithm, the melt zone area increase is eight times higher (from 0.2 to 1.7% year⁻¹). The increase is higher with the improved XPGR technique because rainfall also increased during this period. It is correlated to higher atmospheric temperatures. Finally, the model shows that the total ice sheet runoff is directly proportional to the melt extent surface detected by satellites. These results are important for the understanding of the effect of Greenland melting on the stability of the thermohaline circulation.