Geostatistical methods to identify and map spatial variations of soil salinity

The problem of estimating and predicting spatial distribution of a spatial stochastic process, observed at irregular locations in space, is considered in this paper. Environmental variables usually show spatial dependencies among observations, with lead one to use geostatistical methods to model the spatial distributions of those observations. This is particularly important in the study of soil properties and their spatial variability. In this study geostatistical techniques were used to describe the spatial dependence and to quantify the scale and intensity of spatial variations of soil properties, which provide the essential spatial information for local estimation. In this contribution, we propose a spatial Gaussian linear mixed model that involves (a) a non-parametric term for accounting deterministic trend due to exogenous variables and (b) a parametric component for defining the purely spatial random variation due possibly to latent spatial processes. We focus here on the analysis of the relationship between soil electrical conductivity and Na content to identify spatial variations of soil salinity. This analysis can be useful for agricultural and environmental land management.     

Geostatistical analysis of field hydraulic conductivity in compacted clay

Hydraulic conductivity(K) of fractured or porous materials is associated intimately with water flow and chemical transport. Basic concepts imply uniform flux through a homogeneous cross-sectional area. If flow were to occur only through part of the area, actual rates could be considerably different. Because laboratory values ofK in compacted clays seldom agree with field estimates, questions arise as to what the true values ofK are and how they should be estimated. Hydraulic conductivity values were measured on a 10×25 m elevated bridge-like platform. A constant water level was maintained for 1 yr over a 0.3-m thick layer of compacted clay, and inflow and outflow rates were monitored using 10×25 grids of 0.3-m diameter infiltration rings and outflow drains subtending approximately 1×1 m blocks of compacted clay. Variography of inflow and outflow data established relationships between cores and blocks of clay, respectively. Because distributions of outflow rates were much less and bore little resemblance to the distributions of break-through rates based on tracer studies, presence of macropores and preferential flow through the macropores was suspected. Subsequently, probability kriging was applied to reevaluate distribution of flux rates and possible location of macropores. Sites exceeding a threshold outflow of 100×10^–9 m/s were classified as outliers and were assumed to probably contain a significant population of macropores. Different sampling schemes were examined. Variogram analysis of outflows with and without outliers suggested adequacy of sampling the site at 50 randomly chosen locations. Because of the potential contribution of macropores to pollutant transport and the practical necessity of extrapolating small plot values to larger areas, conditional simulations with and without outliers were carried out. Simulated scenarios based on all available data compared well with conditional simulations based on randomly chosen locations.This paper was presented at MGUS 87 Conference, Redwood City, California, 14 April 1987.     

A Geostatistical Simulation Approach to a Pollution Case in Northeastern Italy

The study zone is located in the city of Padova (the Veneto region, NE Italy). The industrial activities present in this area since 1950 have produced very high concentrations of Pb, Zn, Cu, Pcb and oils until a depth of 7 m. The unsaturated and the saturated zones are both polluted. Because of the abundance of Pb values it was decided to analyze the lead distribution in the studied zone. In many studies of the polluted sites, the geometry of the investigated volume is highly anisotropic. Generally we have an extension of some hectares in the horizontal plane and of a few meters in depth. It is likely that different horizontal spatial continuity structures in pollution distribution are found at different depths both for the layered nature of the medium and for the transition between unsaturated and saturated conditions. In such conditions the decision to divide a 3D problem into 1D and 2D problems can be useful. Initially the studied volume was divided into seven layers up to 5 m in depth; the study was then approached in two phases. First, the Pb values in the vertical direction were analyzed, considering a derive along z, and estimating the values using the Kriging with Trend (KT) method. Thus it was possible to increase the data in the z direction, especially in the deeper layers. Second, 500 realizations of the Pb distribution for each of the seven layers were simulated using the simulated annealing procedure. Finally, results were presented and discussed for each layer in terms of median and probability maps.     

Integration of Tracer Test Data to Refine Geostatistical Hydraulic Conductivity Fields Using Sequential Self-Calibration Method

On the basis of local measurements of hydraulic conductivity,geostatistical methods have been found to be useful in heterogeneity characterization of a hydraulic conductivity field on a regional scale. However,the methods are not suited to directly integrate dynamic production data,such as,hydraulic head and solute concentration,into the study of conductivity distribution. These data,which record the flow and transport processes in the medium,are closely related to the spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity. In this study,a three-dimensional gradient-based inverse method-the sequential self-calibration (SSC) method-is developed to calibrate a hydraulic conductivity field,initially generated by a geostatistical simulation method,conditioned on tracer test results. The SSC method can honor both local hydraulic conductivity measurements and tracer test data. The mismatch between the simulated hydraulic conductivity field and the reference true one,measured by its mean square error (MSE),is reduced through the SSC conditional study. In comparison with the unconditional results,the SSC conditional study creates the mean breakthrough curve much closer to the reference true curve,and significantly reduces the prediction uncertainty of the solute transport in the observed locations. Further,the reduction of uncertainty is spatially dependent,which indicates that good locations,geological structure,and boundary conditions will affect the efficiency of the SSC study results.     

华池油田H152区开发中后期储层地质建模

华池油田H152区为低孔低渗油藏,已进入开发中后期。本文分析了华池油田长3储层地质特征和沉积微相特征,认为其属于三角洲前缘和前三角洲亚相沉积,并详细分析了区内出现的三角洲前缘水下分流河道、分流河道间湾、河口坝、远沙坝和前三角洲泥等微相的岩性和电性特征。采用序贯指示模拟方法建立了研究区沉积微相,应用序贯高斯方法建立储层参数模型,为成功挖潜剩油提供依据。     

塔河油气田AT1区块凝析气藏三维地质建模研究

以随机函数理论为基础,采用相控-多参数协同的随机建模方法,建立塔河油气田AT1区块凝析气藏三维地质模型,实现气藏精细三维表征。首先,以钻井和岩芯资料为基础构建储层构造模型;然后,以小层界面为控制条件建立储层结构模型;接着,在沉积相、地质条件的约束下,采用序贯指示模拟法来建立砂体骨架模型;随后,在砂体骨架模型内进行优势相计算,形成最终有效砂体骨架模型;最后,以有效砂体骨架模型为约束,采用序贯高斯模拟法建立储层物性参数模型。结果表明：将物性参数变量与微相分布结合的序贯高斯模拟法建立孔隙度等物性参数的分布模型,以及采用地质分析类比、地质统计分析等方法优选最佳模型是有效的地质建模方法;所建地质模型精确细致地表征了塔河油气田AT1区块凝析气藏构造格架及储层、流体三维分布,反映了辫状水道复合连片,东北向展布,储层物性受相控较明显,非均质性较强。     

Application of turning bands technique to simulate values of copper ore deposit parameters in Rudna mine (Lubin-Sieroszowice region in SW part of Poland)

ABSTRACT

The turning bands simulation is a valuable and highly useful tool in solving various geological-mining, environmental and geological-engineering problems when it is essential to determine the uncertainty of the estimates of simulated values Z_s (realizations) and assess the risk. This paper presents an investigative methodology and the results of calculations connected with the use of conditional turning bands simulation and bundled indicator kriging, making it possible to analyse the risk at different levels of uncertainty in the solution of optimization of the exploitation problems encountered in the mining of the polymetallic copper ore deposits in the Lubin-Sieroszowice region (Foresudetic monocline, the SW part of Poland). Examples of the evaluation of simulated values Z_s and probability P average values Z* of the deposit parameters within the block located in the Rudna Mine (the block R-3) area are provided.     

Uncertainties in Facies Proportion Estimation II: Application to Geostatistical Simulation of Facies and Assessment of Volumetric Uncertainties

Geostatistical simulations of lithotypes or facies are commonly used to create a geological model and to describe the heterogeneities of petroleum reservoirs. However, it is difficult to handle such models in the framework of multiple realizations to assess the uncertainty of hydrocarbon in place. Indeed, the hydrocarbon in place is correlated with the facies proportions, which are themselves uncertain. The uncertainty model of facies proportions is not easy to describe because of closure relationships. A previous attempt was made with a nonparametric approach using the resampling technique. It has been successful in a stationary case but it is difficult to extend it to nonstationary cases. In this paper, we have applied the vectorial beta parametric model or Dirichlet model. It has provided much more realistic uncertainties on volumetrics in very different geological and geostatistical contexts.     

Modelling of membranes in the material point method with applications

The objective of this paper is to formulate and validate an accurate MPM approach for the numerical simulation of the large displacement of membranes containing soil. In the proposed approach, the membrane is discretised by a surface mesh that allows accurate simulation of membrane stresses. The membrane is free to move through a three‐dimensional grid for a continuum consisting of tetrahedral elements. The approach is applied to model a geocontainer being released from a split barge, taking into account the frictional contact between the geotextile and the barge. No‐slip contact is assumed between the geotextile and the soil inside. The effect of geocontainer interaction is investigated by dropping a second container. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling of a snowpack in interaction with a flexible structure using a coupled Lagrangian‐discrete approach

The search to improve protective techniques against natural phenomena such as snow avalanches continues to use classic methods to calculate flexible structures. This paper deals with a new method for designing avalanche protection nets; this method is based on a coupled analysis of both the net structure and the snow mantel using a coupled Lagrangian‐discrete approach. This has led to the development of computational software so that avalanche nets can be easily designed. This tool provides for the evolving forces acting on several parts of the net as a function of the snow situation. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

趋势面分析在洪山殿矿区构造和厚煤带分布研究中的应用

通过对洪山殿矿区龙潭组Ⅳ煤层底板高程趋势面分析，认为在洪山殿矿区存在多方向的褶皱及其叠加。与本区受到多期次的构造应力场作用相吻合。而通过对Ⅳ煤层厚趋势面分析，得出的煤层厚度在褶皱轴部加厚，翼部变薄的规律性可用来预测矿区Ⅳ煤层厚度和构造的变化。     

硝基苯在傍河地下水源地迁移转化的数值模拟研究

通过开展室内模拟实验研究,探讨硝基苯在傍河水源地的迁移规律、转化机理及其影响因素。在实验的基础上,构建描述硝基苯在傍河地下水源地迁移转化的数学模型。数值模拟结果表明：淤泥介质对硝基苯的吸附能力相对较高,硝基苯在淤泥中的线性吸附系数为0.526 cm³/g,在砂砾中的线性吸附系数为0.123 cm³/g;硝基苯在淤泥介质中的生物降解作用也明显大于在砂砾介质中,其在淤泥介质中的生物降解速率常数可达0.043 h^-1,而在砂砾介质中仅为0.002 h^-1。本次对室内硝基苯迁移转化实验的数值模拟效果较为理想,模拟结果对硝基苯在含水层中的迁移过程和转化规律进行了科学合理的量化描述,可将该模型进一步用于野外硝基苯迁移转化的模拟预测中。     

广东省1960～2007年降雨侵蚀力变化趋势分析

降雨侵蚀力反映由降雨引起的土壤侵蚀的潜在能力.本文利用广东省25个站点48年(1960～2007)的日雨量资料计算了各站的降雨侵蚀力,并用Mann-Kendall(M-K)非参数检验和克里格空间插值法分析了降雨侵蚀力的时空变化规律.结果表明:广东省降雨侵蚀力的空间分布呈沿海向内陆逐渐递减的趋势.全省大部分地区的年降雨侵蚀力呈现不明显上升趋势,且存在较明显的年代际和年际变化.降雨侵蚀力的年内分布特征和降雨量分布类似,呈"双峰型",主要集中在4～9月的雨季.对于季节序列,冬季、春季和夏季大部分地区的降雨侵蚀力有不同程度的上升,秋季全省几乎所有地区呈下降趋势.汛期的降雨侵蚀力变化特征与年降雨侵蚀力相似.     

Modelling of uranium and neptunium chemistry in a deep rock environment

According to the present concept for final storage of spent nuclear fuel in Sweden, the spent fuel, encapsulated in copper or copper/steel canisters, will be placed in tunnels in a deep rock formation. The canisters will be surrounded by compacted bentonite clay acting as a buffer material. In connection with a safety analysis of such a storage facility, the total solubility of certain elements (e.g., uranium) as well as the transport properties (e.g., retardation due to sorption on mineral surfaces) of the long-lived radionuclides released from the canister have to be predicted or measured. The chemical conditions, governing the solubility and speciation of trace elements encountered in and around the repository depend on interactions between the ground water and the engineering materials in the repository and a production of oxidants due to radiolysis in the spent fuel. In the present study the speciation and solubility of uranium and neptunium in a bentonite-ground water system and in ground waters with compositions measured at a site at äspö, SE Sweden, have been calculated. The calculations have been carried out using a recent version of the geochemical computer code PHREEQE and the database HATCHES 5.0. Predictions of the uranium and neptunium concentrations in the ground water in the vicinity of a damaged high level waste repository have also been performed. The uranium concentration in the water in the bentonite barrier is predicted to be of the same order of magnitude or lower than that found in some granitic ground waters. For neptunium the calculations are uncertain due to the small amount of experimentally determined thermodynamic data and few verifications under the conditions (pH - Eh - carbonate concentration) considered. The predicted concentrations (ca 10^–12 m, corresponds to ca 0.006 Bq/l) may be regarded as high, considering the high toxicity of neptunium and its long half-life.     

Evaluation of the Reduction in Uncertainty Obtained by Conditioning a 3D Stochastic Channel to Multiwell Pressure Data

A stochastic channel embedded in a background facies is conditioned to data observed at wells. The background facies is a fixed rectangular box. The model parameters consist of geometric parameters that describe the shape, size, and location of the channel, and permeability and porosity in the channel and nonchannel facies. We extend methodology previously developed to condition a stochastic channel to well-test pressure data, and well observations of the channel thickness and the depth of the top of the channel. The main objective of this work is to characterize the reduction in uncertainty in channel model parameters and predicted reservoir performance that can be achieved by conditioning to well-test pressure data at one or more wells. Multiple conditional realizations of the geometric parameters and rock properties are generated to evaluate the uncertainty in model parameters. The ensemble of predictions of reservoir performance generated from the suite of realizations provides a Monte Carlo estimate of the uncertainty in future performance predictions. In addition, we provide some insight on how prior variances, data measurement errors, and sensitivity coefficients interact to determine the reduction in model parameters obtained by conditioning to pressure data and examine the value of active and observation well data in resolving model parameters.     

Simulation of non-stationary conditional ground motion fields in the time domain

This paper addresses the topic of simulating spatially variable ground motion fields conditioned on a known accelerogram. The conditional ground motion fields can be used in design or verification studies where seismic analysis has to be performed for a couple of natural accelerograms that have been preselected by seismologists or other experts. The methodology is based on conditional densities. In contrast to most authors, the conditional densities method is not applied to the Fourier coefficients, but it is used for the construction of a conditional Gaussian process model in the time domain. This has the advantage that fully non-stationary conditional time histories can be simulated directly in the time domain. The cross-correlation functions needed for this approach are evaluated from commonly used ground motion models expressed as evolutionary power spectral densities. An application to the El Centro earthquake record is presented. The properties of the simulated ground motion fields are analysed and compared to the data and the theoretical model.     

碱性介质中水钠锰矿的合成与转化

水钠锰矿、钙锰矿是土壤和沉积物中常见的氧化锰矿物。本文用改进的方法在碱性介质中合成了结晶度高的单相水钠锰矿 ,其平均化学组成为Na0 .2 5MnO2 .0 70 .6 6H2 O。合成在常温 2 5℃以及机械搅拌作用下进行 ,反应易于控制 ,没有黑锰矿、六方锰矿等其它矿相生成。合成的单相水钠锰矿经Mg2 + 交换、热液处理 ,完全转化为结晶良好、隧道构造为 3× 3的钙锰矿。生成的钙锰矿呈长短不一的纤维状 ,沿三个方向生长的晶体形成各交 12 0°角的三连晶结构 ,平均化学组成为Mg0 .1 6 MnO1 .570 .82H2 O     

再生水灌溉条件下氮磷运移转化实验与数值模拟

利用二维饱和-非饱和土壤氮磷运移转化模型nitrogen-2D对污水灌溉试验的实测数据进行了分析, 结果证明所提出的模型可以较好的描述土壤中的水分运动和氮的转化运移过程, 土壤含水量及铵态氮剖面模拟值与实测数据吻合程度较好.用检验过的数学模型模拟了不同污水灌溉方案下土壤及地下水中不同形态氮及磷的变化情况, 分析了不同灌溉方案下土壤的氮磷平衡和农田养分平衡状况, 结果表明: 适度的污水灌溉, 硝态氮和无机磷不会淋溶出1.5m土层, 不会对地下水造成氮磷污染; 施入土壤的铵态氮, 由于有较强的吸附性, 不易被作物直接吸收, 49%转化成硝态氮, 作物根系吸收以硝态氮为主, 氮肥当季利用率为23.3%;反硝化是进行污水灌溉时旱地土壤氮素的主要损失形式, 约占施入氮量的12.6%.      

Modelling of shearing behaviour of a residual soil with Recurrent Neural Network

Modelling of shear behaviour of residual soils is difficult in that there is a significant variability in constituents and structures of the soil. A Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) is developed for modelling shear behaviour of the residual soil. The RNN model appears very effective in modelling complex soil shear behaviour, due to its feedback connections from an hidden layer to an input layer. Two architectures of the RNN model are designed for training different sets of experimental data which include strain-controlled undrained tests and stress-controlled drained tests performed on a residual Hawaiian volcanic soil. A dynamic gradient descent learning algorithm is used to train the network. By training only part of the experimental data the network establishes neural connections between stress and strain relations. Although the soil exhibited significant variations in terms of shearing behaviour, the RNN model displays a strong capability in capturing these variabilities. Both softening and hardening characteristics of the soil are well represented by the RNN model. Isotropic and anisotropic consolidation conditions are precisely reflected by the RNN model. In undrained tests, pore water pressure responses at various loading stages are simultaneously simulated. With a RNN model designed for a special drained test, the network is able to capture abrupt changes in axial and volumetric strains during shearing courses. These good agreements between the measured data and the modelling results demonstrate the desired capability of the RNN model in representing a soil behaviour. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

珠江三角洲地区近30年降雨变化趋势及其与气溶胶的关系

基于珠江三角洲地区1980~2010年0.5°×0.5°经纬度网格的逐月降水资料,利用Mann-Kendall秩次相关法,对珠江三角洲地区近30年的降雨趋势特征进行了分析。研究表明:珠三角地区2~4月降雨量存在显著下降趋势,而6~9月降雨量有显著的上升趋势。从气溶胶的角度对这种趋势产生的原因进行了分析,针对珠三角地区2~4月和6~9月不同的降雨类型,提出气溶胶物质的增多在一定程度上抑制了2~4月锋面雨的形成,而对6~9月台风雨的产生也存在可能影响的假设,并从降雨机制上进行了解释。