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应用最新研制出来的DLH1热带旋路径预报方案,在1994年及1995年两个台风季里,共对24个热带风暴,强热带风暴及台区进行了87次预报试验。结果表明,本方案在应用了T42高度预报场后,比原的“两层订正引导”方案有明显改进。 相似文献
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热带气旋偏西行突然北翘登陆华南的预报难度大,准确预报出登陆地段的时效短,往往来不及作好御防而造成较大的损失。为提高预报技术水平,广州区域气象中心组织了此协作课题。实践与统计表明:目前国内外多数客观预报方法对正常路径的预报较好,对异常路径却缺乏预报能力;一些预报方法需用实时后6/J‘时的中心位置,每次的预报位置又不断变动,满足不了预报服务实时性与稳定性的要求。本文引用气候持续概念,对热带气旋(中心附近最大风力>8级,以下同)持续偏西行与偏西转偏北行两类路径的个例进行对比分析,在求出不同情况下的系列订… 相似文献
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介绍广西热带气旋路径预报方法的试验方案,以及运用该方案对1995 ̄1996年汛期热带气旋路径预报的结果,并对结果进行诊断分析,在此基础上得出预报方法中尚待改进的主要问题和解决这些问题的初步思路,为提高广西热带气旋路径预报水平做有益的探讨。 相似文献
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给出了一个嵌套于欧洲中期天气预报中心全球谱模式中的套网格模式,用于预报热带气旋路径趋势,提出了一种以欧洲中期天气预报中心提供的时距为24小时的预报场为基础的“接力预报”方法;设计了五种不同的“接力预报”方案;并对8507号和8509号两个热带气旋就各种不同预报方案进行了数值预报试验。结果表明,本模式对热带气旋路径趋势具有较强的预报能力,对疑难路径也具有一定的预报能力,为开展热带气旋的路径趋势预报提供了一个新的途径。文中还对影响热带气旋路径趋势的一些主要因子结合各预报结果进行了分析,为模式尽早投入业务提供了一定的依据。 相似文献
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介绍广西热带气旋路径预报方法的试验方案,以及运用该方案对1995~1996年汛期热带气旋进行路径预报的结果,并对结果进行诊断分析,在此基础上得出预报方法中尚待改进的主要问题和解决这些问题的初步思路,为提高广西热带气旋路径预报水平做有益的探讨。 相似文献
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以MM5模式为试验模式,分别用增长模繁殖法(BGM)和模式物理过程扰(MPP)形成12个集合成员,对2005年登陆我国的8个热带气旋进行了52次路径集合预报试验,以寻找适合西北太平洋热带气旋路径的集合预报方法。结果表明:BGM方法的集合预报结果总体上好于控制试验结果,其中对强度较弱的热带气旋的集合预报效果更好。MPP方法的集合预报结果总体上不如控制试验结果,但对初始时刻强度达到台风的热带气旋的集合预报效果较好,集合预报相对于控制试验的改进效果明显。基于BGM方法和MPP方法集合预报的不同特点,将两种方法相结合形成扰动成员,这一综合方法的集合预报效果好于单一方法的集合预报效果。BGM方法和MPP方法的系统发散度总体上都偏小。 相似文献
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非静力模式预报热带气旋路径个例试验 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
利用非静力模式(MM5V2)对9611号、9904号等北上热带气旋路径预报进行民试验。用松驰(Nudging)四维同化方案和人造热带气旋(Bogus TC)技术,使独t-12时刻的模式场(包括第一个Bogus TC)通过预积分逐步逼近to时刻的Bogus TC和同时刻的观测资料场庆1999年能够得到相隔6h一次的AT106L19预报场后,分别在t-12、t-a6和to时刻各制做一个Bogus TC 相似文献
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钟元 《热带气象学报(英文版)》1997,3(2):208-214
As shown in a statistical analysis of the relationship between environmental fields at varied timeand tropical cyclone motion, the forecasting ability of the initisl environmental field predictors for tropical cyclone motion decreases with the increase of valid time period of forecast;it is higher with these predictors at a fUture time than at an initial time. The work also indicates that for the tropical cyclone motion over a given period of valid forecast, better predictors appear at times mostly differing from thevalid periods; for periods at 48-120 h the environmental predictors at 48-72 h are more capable of forecasting. With statistical interpretation of NWP products, a predictive model for tropical cyclone motionis superior in performance over a statistical forecasting model that employes predictors of the initial field in the basic framework. The concluding remarks can be used as reference in the construction of an objective prediction model for tropical cyclone motion. 相似文献
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The barotropic primitive equations model is used in a numerical study of a tropical cyclone crossing the Subtropical high. It is revealed that apart from its own characteristics, sensitive factors having immediate effects on the motion of the tropical cyclone also include its radial distance from the center of the subtropical high, the variation in latitudinal location and intensity. A complex mechanism for nonlinear interactions among the tropical,subtropical high and β effect is also shown in the experiment, and expected to serve for the diagnosis and prediction of abnormal motion. 相似文献
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热带气旋登陆华东的客观预报方案 总被引:7,自引:2,他引:7
热带所旋登陆华东属小概率事件。构造适当划分区间的阶梯函数能较好地反映登陆事件条件概率的非线性分布。应用阶梯函数变换的因子对登陆事件概率的预报性能优于线性相关的标准化因子。预报方案应用阶梯函数变换因子,通过非线性相关比筛选和REEP分析构造热带气旋登陆华东的预报模式。应用初始场资料与数值预报产品分别构造了统计-天气学、统计-气候学和统计-动力学的分类预报模式。应用分类预报模式的预报结果进行综合的预报集成提高了预报技巧。预报检验与试验表明本方案对热带气旋登陆华东具有一定的预报能力。 相似文献
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In this paper, 1416 conventional ground-based meteorological
observation stations on the mainland of China were subdivided into
groups of differing spatial density. Data from each subgroup were then
used to analyze variations in the tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation
statistics derived from each subgroup across the mainland of China
(excluding Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macao), as well as in two regions
(east China and south China) and three provinces (Guangdong, Hainan,
and Jiangxi) between 1981 and 2010. The results showed that for the
mainland of China, total precipitation, mean annual precipitation, mean
daily precipitation, and its spatial distribution were the same
regardless of the spatial density of the stations. However, some minor
differences were evident with respect to precipitation extremes and
their spatial distribution. Overall, there were no significant
variations in the TC precipitation statistics calculated from different
station density schemes for the mainland of China. The regional and
provincial results showed no significant differences in mean daily
precipitation, but this was not the case for the maximum daily
precipitation and torrential rain frequency. The maximum daily
precipitation calculated from the lower-density station data was
slightly less than that based on the higher-density station schemes,
and this effect should be taken into consideration when interpreting
regional climate statistics. The impact of station density on TC
precipitation characteristics was more obvious for Hainan than for
Guangdong or Jiangxi provinces. In addition, the effects were greater
for south China (including Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region, Guangdong,
and Hainan provinces) than east China (including Shandong, Jiangsu,
Zhejiang, Shanghai, Fujian, Anhui, and Jiangxi provinces). Furthermore,
the analysis proved that the statistical climatic characteristics began
to change significantly when the station spacing was between 40 and 50
km, which are close to the mean spacing for all stations across the
mainland of China. Moreover, TC areal precipitation parameters,
including mean total areal precipitation and mean daily areal
precipitation, also began to change significantly when the spacing was
between 40 and 50 km, and were completely different when it was between
100 and 200 km. 相似文献
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The paper introduces the basic concept and flow diagram of genetic algorithm (GA) and themerits and demerits of artificial neural network (ANN) as a timeseries prediction model andthereupon developed is a new model with ANN and GA in combination. Eventually, calculationsare presented with the results and model examined. 相似文献