Variations in Reconstructed Ice Winter Severity in the Western Baltic from 1501 to 1995, and their implications for the North Atlantic Oscillation

Variations in ice winter severity in the Western Baltic between 1501 and 1995 were investigated using an index time series derived from classified values of accumulated areal ice volume along the German Baltic coast, the time series back to 1701, having been extended to the beginning of the 16th century. When compared with the 1501–1995 mean, the Gaussian lowpass-filtered time series of the ice winter index numerals with a 40-year cutoff period shows increased severity (strong phases) in 1554–1576, 1593–1630, 1655–1710, and 1763–1860, while periods of decreased severity occurred in 1501–1553, 1577–1592, 1631–1654, 1711–1762, and from 1861 to the present. During the latter part of the Little Ice Age, especially during the 1655–1710 and 1763–1860 phases, the lowpass-filtered time series lay more than half a standard deviation above the arithmetic mean of the reference period 1901–1960, representing the present regime, for more than three decades. Between 1501 and 1860, the ice winter severity in the Western Baltic fluctuated around a level 55% higher than that during the present period. Using the contingency table published by Koslowski and Loewe, the frequency of events of weak westerly flow above the northeastern North Atlantic during the Little Ice Age was estimated. The calculated values of weak westerly flow expected per decade suggest that strong phases of increased ice winter severity were characterized by frequent blocking situations (weak westerly flow), and that, contrarily, the weak phases of reduced ice winter severity between about 1575 and 1860 may be regarded as phases of increased zonal circulation.     

The hierarchical structure of glacial climatic oscillations: interactions between ice-sheet dynamics and climate

Abrupt climatic oscillations around the North Atlantic have been identified recently in Greenland ice cores as well as in North Atlantic marine sediment cores. The good correlation between the Dansgaard-Oeschger events in the ice and the Heinrich events in the ocean suggests that climate, in the North Atlantic region, underwent several massive reorganizations in the last glacial period. A characteristic feature of these events seems to be their hierarchical structure. Every 7 to 10-thousand years, when the temperature is close to its minimum, the ice-sheet undergoes a massive iceberg discharge. This Heinrich event is then followed by an abrupt warming, then by several other oscillations, each one lasting between one and two thousand years. These secondary oscillations do not have a clear signature in marine sediments but constitute most of the Dansgaard-Oeschger events found in the ice. Here we use a simplified model coupling an ice-sheet and an ocean basin, in order to illustrate how the interactions between these two components can lead to such a hierarchical structure. The ice-sheet model exhibits internal oscillations composed of ice-sheet growing phases and basal ice melting phases that induce massive iceberg discharges. These massive fresh water inputs in the ocean stop for a moment the thermohaline circulation, enhancing the temperature contrast between low- and high-latitudes. Just after this event, the thermohaline circulation restarts and an abrupt warming of high-latitude regions is observed. For some parameter values, these warmer temperatures have in turn some influence on the ice-sheet, inducing secondary oscillations similar to those found in paleoclimatic records. Although the mechanism presented here may be too grossly simplified, it nevertheless underlines the potential importance of the coupling between ice-sheet dynamics and oceanic thermohaline circulation on the structure of the climatic records during the last glacial period.     

Analytical solutions for the Ekman layer

The PBL equation that governs the transition from the constant-stress surface layer to the geostrophic wind in a neutrally stratified atmosphere for which the eddy viscosityK(z) is assumed to vary smoothly from the surface-layer value U _*z (0.4,U _*=friction velocity,z=elevation) to the geostrophic asymptoteK _GU _*d forzd is solved through an expansion in fd/U _*1 (f=Coriolis parameter). The resulting solution is separated into Ekman's constant-K solution an inner component that reduces to the classical logarithmic form forzd and isO() relative to the Ekman component forzd. The approximationKU _*d is supported by the solution of Nee and Kovasznay's phenomenological transport equation forK(z), which yieldsK–U _*d exp(–z/d), where is an empirical constant for which observation implies, 1. The parametersA andB in Kazanskii and Monin's similarity relation forG/U _* (G=geostrophic velocity) are determined as functions of . The predicted values ofG/U _* and the turning angle are in agreement with the observed values for the Leipzig wind profile. The predicted value ofB based on the assumption of asymptotically constantK is 4.5, while that based on the Nee-Kovasznay model is 5.1; these compare with the observed value of 4.7 for the Leipzig profile. A thermal wind correction, an asymptotic solution for arbitraryK(z) and 1, and an exact (unrestricted ) solution forK(z)=U _*d[1–exp(–z/d)] are developed in appendices.     

The carbon isotopic ratio of atmospheric carbon dioxide at Tsukuba,Japan

To find out the secular and seasonal trends of the ¹³C value and CO₂ concentration in the surface air and the determination of the ¹³C in the atmospheric CO₂ collected at Tsukuba Science City was carried out during the period from July 1981 to October 1983. The monthly average of the ¹³C value of CO₂ in the surface air collected at 1400 LMT ranged from -7.52 to \s-8.45 with an average of -7.96±0.25 and the CO₂ concentration in the air varied from 334.5 l 1^-1 to 359 l 1^-1 with an average of 347.2±6.3 l 1^-1. The ¹³C value is high in summer and low in winter and is negatively correlated with the CO₂ concentration. In general, the relationship between the ¹³C and the CO₂ concentration is explainable by a simple mixing model of two different constant carbon isotopic species but the relationship does not always follow the model. The correlation between the ¹³C value and the CO₂ concentration is low during the plant growth season and high at other times. The observed negative deviation of the ¹³C value from the simple mixing model in the plant growth season is partly due to the isotopic fractionation process which takes place in the land biota.     

Transport-Dissipation Analytical Solutions to the E-∈Turbulence Model and their Role in Predictions of the Neutral ABL

E- turbulence model predictions of the neutralatmospheric boundary layer (NABL) are reinvestigated to determine thecause for turbulence overpredictions found in previous applications. Analytical solutions to the coupled E and equations for the case of steady balance between transport and dissipation terms, the dominant balance just below the NABL top, are derived. It is found that analytical turbulence profiles laminarizeat a finite height only for values of closure parameter ratio c ₂ /_e equal toor slightly greater than one, with laminarization as z for greater . The point = 2 is additionally foundthat where analytical turbulent length scale (l) profilesmade a transition from ones ofdecreasing ( < 2) to increasing ( > 2)values with height. Numerically predicted profiles near the NABL topare consistent with analytical findings. The height-increasingvalues of l predicted throughout the NABL with standard values ofclosure parameters thus appear a consequence of 2.5(> 2), implied by these values (c ₂ = 1.92, _{= 1.3}, _{e = 1}). Comparison of numericalpredictions with DNS data shows that turbulence overpredictions obtained with standard-valued parameters are rectifiedby resetting and _e to 1.1 and 1.6, respectively, giving, with c ₂ = 1.92, 1.3, and laminarization of the NABL's cappingtransport-dissipation region at a finite height.     

Circulation Variability Reflected in Ice Core and Lake Records of the Southern Tropical Andes

The circulation mechanisms of climate anomalies in the southern tropical Andes are of particular interest for the January–February core of the precipitation season. With this focus, we evaluate in context upper-air and surface analyses, water level measurements of Lake Titicaca, and records of net balance and ¹⁸O from ice cores. Precipitation is more abundant with enhanced and southward expanded easterlies through a deep layer of the troposphere over the southern tropical Andes. Concomitant with this is a southward displaced circulation system over the equatorial Atlantic, entailing reduced interhemispheric gradient of sea surface temperature (SST; cold/warm anomalies in the North/South), more southerly position of the surface wind confluence and Intertropical Convergence Zone, and thus more abundant rainfall in Northeast Brazil. Such ensemble of circulation departures in boreal winter is common to the high phase of the Southern Oscillation.¹⁸O in the ice cores from Peru's Quelccaya Icecap, as wellas the cores from Sajama and Ilimani in Bolivia is more negative with more abundant precipitation, both in the same annual cycle and on interannual timescales. The large-scale circulation departures associated with the more negative ¹⁸O are in the sense as for anomalously abundant precipitation activity over the southern tropical Andes. The variability of ¹⁸O seasonally and interannually appears to be controlled mainly by the fate of the water vapor along its trajectory and over the Andes, rather than by the SST of the South Atlantic source region.     

On the representation of frequency spectra in meteorology

The common representation of frequency spectra in meteorology and climatology is discussed. It is pointed out that this representation is misleading since spectral peaks and spectral gaps are obtained even when the spectrum density is monotonously decreasing in the whole frequency range. A plea is made for using the spectrum distribution function, F() which gives an unambiguous picture of the distribution of variance with frequency.     

The prediction of dust erosion by wind: An interactive model

We have devised a partial differential equation for the prediction of dust concentration in a thin layer near the ground. In this equation, erosion (detachment), transport, deposition and source are parameterised in terms of known quantities. The interaction between a wind prediction model in the boundary layer and this equation affects the evolution of the dust concentration at the top of the surface layer. Numerical integrations are carried out for various values of source strength, ambient wind and particle size. Comparison with available data shows that the results appear very reasonable and that the model should be subjected to further development and testing.Notation (x, y, z, t) space co-ordinates and time (cm,t) - u, v components of horizontal wind speed (cm s^–1) - u _g, v_g components of the geostrophic wind (cm s^–1) - V=(u²+v²)^1/2 (cm s^–1) - (û v)= 1/(h – k) _k ^h(u, v)dz(cm s^–1) - V _* friction velocity (cm s^–1) - z ₀ roughness length (cm) - k ₁ von Karman constant =0.4 - V _d deposition velocity (cm s^–1) - V _g gravitational settling velocity (cm s^–1) - h height of inversion (cm) - k height of surface layer (cm) - potential temperature (°K) - _gr potential temperature at ground (°K) - _K potential temperature at top of surface layer (°K) - P pressure (mb) - P ₀ sfc pressure (mb) - C _p/C_v - (t)= /z lapse rate of potential temperature (°K cm^–1) - A(z) variation of wind with height in transition layer - B(z) variation of wind with height in transition layer - Cd drag coefficient - C _HO transfer coefficient for sensible heat - C dust concentration (g m^–3) - C _K dust concentration at top of surface layer (g m^–3) - D(z) variation with height of dust concentration - u, v, w turbulent fluctuations of the three velocity components (cm s^–1) - A ₁ constant coefficient of proportionality for heat flux =0.2 - Ri Richardson number - g gravitational acceleration =980 cm s^–2 - Re Reynolds number = - D _s thickness of laminar sub-layer (cm) - v molecular kinematic viscosity of air - coefficient of proportionality in source term - dummy variable - t time step (sec) - n time index in numerical equations On sabbatical leave at University of Aberdeen, Department of Engineering, September 1989–February 1990.     

Climatic interpretation of the recently extended Vostok ice records

A new ice core drilled at the Russian station of Vostok in Antarctica reached 2755 m depth in September 1993. At this depth, the glaciological time scale provides an age of 260 ky BP (±25). We refine this estimate using records of dust and deuterium in the ice and of ¹⁸O of O₂ in the entrapped air. ¹⁸O of O₂ is highly correlated with insolation over the last two climatic cycles if one assumes that the EGT chronology overestimates the increase of age with depth by 12% for ages older than 112 ky BP. This modified age-depth scale gives an age of 244 ky BP at 2755 m depth and agrees well with the age-depth scale of Walbroeck et al. (in press) derived by orbital tuning of the Vostok D record. We discuss the temperature interpretation of this latter record accounting for the influence of the origin of the ice and using information derived from deuterium-excess data. We conclude that the warmest period of stage 7 was likely as warm as today in Antarctica. A remarkable feature of the Vostok record is the high level of similarity of proxy temperature records for the last two climatic cycles (stages 6 and 7 versus stages 1–5). This similarity has no equivalent in other paleorecords.     

The KABEG’97 field experiment: An aircraft-based study of katabatic wind dynamics over the Greenland ice sheet

The aircraft-based experiment KABEG97 (Katabatic wind and boundary-layer front experiment around Greenland) was performed in April/May 1997. During the experiment, surface stations were installed at five positions on the ice sheet and in the tundra near Kangerlussuaq, West Greenland. A total of nine katabatic wind flights were performed during quite different synoptic situations and surface conditions, and low-level jets with wind speeds up to 25m s^-1 were measured under strong synoptic forcing of the katabatic wind system. The KABEG data represent a unique data set for the investigation of katabatic winds. For the first time, high-resolution and accurate aircraft measurements can be used to investigate the three-dimensional structure of the katabatic wind system for a variety of synoptic situations.Surface station data show that a pronounced daily cycle of the near-surface wind is present for almost all days due to the nighttime development of the katabatic wind. In a detailed case study the stably-stratified boundary layer over the ice and the complex boundary-layer structure in the transition zone ice/tundra are investigated. The katabatic wind system is found to extend about 10 km over the tundra area and is associated with strong wind convergence and gravity waves. The investigation of the boundary-layer dynamics using the concept of a two-layer katabatic wind model yields the results that the katabatic flow is always a shooting flow and that the pure katabatic force is the main driving mechanism for the flow regime, although a considerable influence of the large-scale synoptic forcing is found as well.     

Winter severity in Europe: The fourteenth century

The fourteenth century is known to include a period of winter cooling in Central and Western Europe, but its timing and magnitude are not clearly established. An attempt to obtain a coherent picture from verified documentary evidence yielded 2133 records from a region covering Central Europe and Northern Italy, mostly originating from the Monumenta Germaniae Historica. Temperatures were assessed using semi-quantitative indices on the basis of proxy information on snow-cover, ice and untimely activity of vegetation. Results: A run of cold winters from 1303 to 1328 was followed by a run of average winters up to 1354. Then winter temperatures were extremely variable up to 1375. For the rest of the century they fluctuated somewhat below the average of the twentieth century. The pattern in the first five decades is compared to that in the Late Maunder Minimum (1675–1715). The possible role of forcing factors (variations in solar output, North Atlantic Deep Water formation) is briefly discussed.     

Three-dimensional modeling of synthetic cold fronts interacting with northern Alpine foehn

Summary The effect of the Alpine orography on prototype cold fronts approaching from the west is investigated by three-dimensional numerical model simulations. The numerical experiments cover a range of parameter constellations which govern the prefrontal environment of the front. Especially, the appearance and intensity of prefrontal northern Alpine foehn varies from case to case.The behaviour of a cold front north of the Alps depends much on the prefrontal condition it encounters. It is found that prefrontal foehn can either accelerate or retard the approaching front.An important feature is the pressure depression along the northern Alpine rim that results from the southerly foehn flow. In cases where this depression compensates the eastward directed pressure gradient associated with the largescale flow, the front tends to accelerate and the foehn breaks down as soon as the front passes. In contrast, the foehn prevents the front from a rapid eastward propagation if it is connected with a strong southerly wind component.No-foehn experiments are performed for comparison, where either the mountains are removed, or the static stability is set to neutral. Also shown are effects of different crossfrontal temperature contrasts.List of Symbols c _F propagation speed of a front - x, y horizontal grid spacing (cartesian system) - , horizontal grid spacing (geographic system) - t time step - z vertical grid spacing (cartesian system) - cross-frontal potential temperature difference - _i potential temperature step at an inversion - E turbulent kinetic energy - f Coriolis parameter - FGP frontogenesis parameter (see section 2.2) - g gravity acceleration (g=9.81 m s^–2) - vertical gradient of potential temperature - h terrain elevation (above MSL) - h _i height of an inversion (h _i =1000 m MSL) - H height of model lid (H=9000 m MSL) - K _M exchange coefficient of momentum - K _H exchange coefficient of heat and moisture - longitude - N Brunt-Väisäla-frequency - p pressure - Exner function (=T/) - latitude - q _v specific humidity - R _d gas constant of dry air (R _d =287.06 J kg^–1 K^–1) - density of dry air - t time - T temperature - potential temperature - TFP thermal front parameter (see section 2.2) - u, v, w cartesian wind components - u _g ,v _g geostrophic wind components - horizontal wind vector - x, y, z cartesian coordinates Abbreviations GND (above) ground level - MSL (above) mean sea level - UTC universal time coordinated With 20 Figures     

Eddy energy dissipation rate and puff diffusion during calms

The paper considers a puff diffusion in its inertial stage when particle separation obeys the laws of the inertial subrange and depends only on eddy energy dissipation rate . The can be determined in the surface layer by the turbulent kinetic energy equation. Similarity equations connect with diffusion measure .A simple analytical model has been deduced to estimate pollutants diffusion during calms.     

The 1810s in the Baltic region, 1816 in particular: Air temperatures,grain supply and mortality

The mean acidity of the ice core from Crête, Central Greenland, for the layer dating to 1816, one year after Tambora's eruption, has been found by Hammer, Clausen and Dansgaard (1980) to be nearly three times greater than that of the layer dating to 1884, one year after Krakatau's eruption. Despite the aforementioned fact, air-temperature data of the Baltic meteorological stations that took observations both in the 1810s and the 1880s (Copenhagen, Gothenburg, Stockholm, Trondheim, and Uppsala), do not show that the coldness of 1816 relative to 1814 was any greater than that of 1884 relative to 1882. Moreover, the year 1812 was much colder than 1816 when the two are compared with 1814 at all Baltic stations, although no known important eruption took place shortly before 1812. It seems plausible that the plumes reaching the Baltic Region following the two eruptions were too thin to have produced any appreciable effect on air temperatures.An examination of data available on grain harvests in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden does not indicate that either in 1816 or 1817 there was any note-worthy crop failure. In contrast, the year 1812 (a cold year) was marked by short-fall of the harvest, in consequence of which in 1813 there was a partial famine in Norway, partly because of war conditions (blockade by the British Navy) it was hard to get supplies from abroad.Mortality data are also available for the above four countries. Mortality was relatively high in 1812 and/or 1813, but not in 1816–17.No harvest or mortality data are available for Russia. Lists of famines in Russia show none in 1816. In 1817 there was a price rise in a limited area of the Empire.All-in-all, the Baltic Region had not suffered from Tambora's eruption unlike the lower mid-latitudes of Western and Central Europe. It is suggested that the Region, as well as the south of European Russia, were spared as they were crossed by air masses whose stratosphere had become depopulated of small volcanic particles, while the troposphere became cleansed of particles through washout by rain previously.A nearly identical version of the present paper was an invited paper to the Climate in 1816 Meeting, held at Ottawa, Canada, 25–28 June 1988.In 1986–90 visiting with the Department of Meteorology, University of Copenhagen.     

Near-field dispersion from instantaneous sources in the surface layer

This paper considers the near-field dispersion of an ensemble of tracer particles released instantaneously from an elevated source into an adiabatic surface layer. By modelling the Lagrangian vertical velocity as a Markov process which obeys the Langevin equation, we show analytically that the mean vertical drift velocity w(t) is w()=bu _*(1–e ^–(1+)), where is time since release (nondimensionalized with the Lagrangian time scale at the source), b Batchelor's constant, and u _*, the friction velocity. Hence, the mean height and mean depth of the ensemble are calculated. Although the derivation is formally valid only when 1, the predictions for w, mean height and mean depth are consistent in the downstream limit ( 1) with surface-layer Lagrangian similarity theory and with the diffusion equation. By comparing the analytical predictions with numerical, randomflight solutions of the Langevin equation, the analytical predictions are shown to be good approximations at all times, both near-field and far-field.     

Triggering of atmospheric circulations by moisture inhomogeneities of the earth's surface

A two-dimensional mesoscale soil-atmosphere model is used to simulate the triggering of atmospheric convection by horizontally varying soil water content. The variation is periodic with a wavelength between 4 and 40 km, which is considered a realistic scale for the variation of land surface characteristics. Three stages of convection can be clearly discerned: a short initial stage when convection sets in and where the size of the conective cells is determined by , a mature stage with well developed cells whose size is still determined by , and a decay/transformation stage, characterized by the formation of narrow regions of strong updrafts and wide regions of moderate downdrafts, independent of . Parameters relevant for the transition are given, and the importance of the feedback between soil and atmosphere is demonstrated. The dependence of convective parameters, e.g., height of the convective layer, vertical velocity and fluxes of heat and moisture on is investigated. The calculations of the mature stage are compared with the predictions of a linear model.     

A study of the seasonal migration of ITCZ and the quasi-periodic oscillations in a simple monsoon system using an energy balance model

Summary A zonally averaged global energy balance model with feedback mechanisms was constructed to simulate (i) the poleward limits of ITCZ over the continent and over the ocean and (ii) a simple monsoon system as a result of differential heating between the continent and the ocean. Three numerical experiments were performed with lower boundary as (1) global continent, (2) global ocean and (3) continent-ocean, with freezing latitudes near the poles. Over the continent, midlatitude deserts were found and the ITCZ migrates 25° north and south with seasons. Over a global swamp ocean results do not show migration of ITCZ with time but once the ocean currents are introduced the ITCZ migrates 5° north and south with seasons. It was found that the seasonal migration of ITCZ strongly depends on the meridional distribution of the surface temperature. It was also found that continent influences the location of the oceanic ITCZ. In the tropics northward progression of quasi-periodic oscillations called events are found during the pre- and post-monsoon periods with a period of 8 to 15 days. This result is consistent with the observed quasi-periodic oscillations in the tropical region. Northward propagation of the surface temperature perturbation appears to cause changes in the sensible heat flux which in turn causes perturbations in vertical velocity and latent heat flux fields.List of Symbols vertical average - ₀ zonal average - vertical mean of the zonal average - _0s zonal average at the surface - _0a zonal average at 500 mb level - latitude We now define the various symbols used in the model rate of atmospheric heating due to convective cloud formation (K/sec) - dp/dt (N/m²/sec) - density - potential temperature (K) - rate of rotation of the earth (rad/sec) - empirical constant - humidity mixing ratio - ^* saturated humidity mixing ratio - opacity of the atmosphere - ₁,₂ factors for downward and upward effective black body long wave radiation from the atmosphere - Stefan-Boltzmann constant - emissivity of the surface - _D subsurface temperature (K) - a specific volume - _0xs ,_0ys eastward and northward components of surface frictional stress - ^* vertical velocity at the top of the boundary layer (N/m²/sec) - P Thickness of the boundary layer (mb) - nondimensional function of pressure - P pressure - P _a pressure of the model atmosphere (N/m²) - P _s pressure at the surface (N/m²) - t time (sec) - U eastward wind speed (m/sec) - V northward wind speed (m/sec) - surface water availability - T absolute temperature (K) - heat addition due to water phase changes - g acceleration due to gravity (m²/sec) - a radius of the earth (m) - R gas constant for dry air (J/Kg/K) - C _p specific heat of air at constant pressure (J/Kg/K) - k R/C _p - L latent heat of condensation (J/Kg) - f coriolis parameter (rad/sec) - H _s H _0s ⁽¹⁾ +H _0s ⁽²⁾ +H _0s ⁽³⁾ +H _0s ⁽⁴⁾ +H _0s ⁽⁵⁾ (J/m²/Sec)=sum of the rates of vertical heat fluxes per unit surface area, directed toward the surface - H _a H _0a ⁽¹⁾ +H _0a ⁽²⁾ +H _0a ⁽³⁾ +H _0a ⁽⁴⁾ (J/m²/Sec)=sum of the rates of heat additions to the atmospheric column per unit horizontal area by all processes - H _0s ⁽¹⁾ ,H _0a ⁽¹⁾ heat flux due to short wave radiation - H _0s ⁽²⁾ ,H _0a ⁽²⁾ heat flux due to long wave radiation - H _0s ⁽³⁾ ,H _0a ⁽³⁾ heat flux due to small scale convection - H _0s ⁽⁴⁾ heat flux due to evaporation - H _0a ⁽⁴⁾ heat flux due to condensation - H _0s ⁽⁵⁾ heat flux due to subsurface conduction and convection - e ^* saturation vapor pressure - R solar constant (W/m²) - r _a albedo of the atmosphere - r _s albedo of the surface - b ₂ empirical constant (J/m²/sec) - c ₂ empirical constant (J/m²/sec) - e ₂ nondimensional empirical constant - f ₂ empirical constant (J/m₂/sec) - factor proportional to the conductive capacity of the surface medium - a _s constant used in Sellers model - b _s positive constant of proportionality used in the Sellers model (kg m²/J/sec²) - K _HT coefficient for eddy diffusivity of heat (m²/sec) - K _HE exchange coefficient for water vapor (m²/sec) - h depth of the water column (m) - z height (m) - V _0ws meridional component of surface current (m/sec) - n cloud amount - G _0,n long wave radiation form the atmosphere for cloud amount n (W/m²) - B ₀ long wave radiation from the surface (W/m²) - S _0,n short wave radiation from the atmosphere for cloud amount n (W/m²) - A _n albedo factor for a cloud amount n - R _f1 large scale rainfall (mm/day) - R _f2 small scale rainfall (mm/day) With 22 Figures     

Diurnal variation of horizontal wind direction fluctuations in complex terrain at Geysers,Cal.

Horizontal diffusion in the surface layer is dependent on the standard deviation of wind direction fluctuations . Diurnal variation of this parameter in complex terrain was studied for the July 1979 Geysers, Cal., experiment using data from a network of 11 short meteorological towers in the 25 km² Anderson Creek watershed Valley side slopes are roughly 20 ° and maximum terrain difference is about 1 km.Values of for wind directions sampled for one hour at a height of 10 m are about 35 ° during the daytime. They slowly decrease to about 20 ° by 8 to 10 p.m. as stability increases but wind speeds are still relatively high. After 10 p.m. the drainage flow sets in at most stations, with speeds of 1 to 2 m s^-1, and average increases to about 30° during the period 11 p.m. to 6 a.m. In general, highest values of at night are associated with lowest values of wind speed and greatest static stability. This enhancement of by the terrain suggests that horizontal diffusion at night always conforms to that expected during nearly neutral stabilities. That is, Pasquill class D diffusion applies to the horizontal component all night in complex terrain.     

Carbon dioxide and the δ18O record of late-Quaternary climatic change: a global model

A dynamical model for the late-Quaternary global variations of ¹⁸O, mean ocean surface tempeature , ice mass I, deep ocean temperature , and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration , is constructed. This model consists of two diagnostic equations (for ¹⁸O and ), and three prognostic equations (for I, , and ) of a form studied extensively in previous articles. The carbon dioxide equation includes forcing by a representation of the Milankovitch earth-orbital radiation effects, and contains a basic instability that drives a free oscillation of period near 100,000 years. The system is constrained to conserve mass and energy, contain physically plausible feedbacks including a system time constant no greater than 10.000 years, and be robust (i. e., structurally stable in the presence of expected noise levels and uncertainties in values of coefficients). Within the limits of these constraints, coefficients are chosen such that (i) the solution gives a good fit to the observed SPECMAP ¹⁸O variations, and (ii) the ice mass variations are qualitatively similar to the ¹⁸O variations. The predicted long term variations of sea surface temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide are in reasonably good agreement with the limited observational evidence available for these quantities, while the predicted variations of deep ocean temperature remain to be verified when paleoclimatic estimates of this quantity become available. The relative contributions of ice mass changes and surface water temperature changes to the variations of ¹⁸O at any time are given by the model.     

Carbon dioxide emissions in a methane economy

Increasing reliance on natural gas (methane) to meet global energy demands holds implications for atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. Analysis of these implications is presented, based on a logistic substitution model viewing energy technologies like biological species invading an econiche and substituting in case of superiority for existing species. This model suggests gas will become the dominant energy source and remain so for 50 years, peaking near 70 percent of world supply. Two scenarios of energy demand are explored, one holding per capita consumption at current levels, the second raising the global average in the year 2100 to the current U.S. level. In the first (efficiency) scenario concentrations peak about 450 ppm, while in the second (long wave) they near 600 ppm. Although projected CO₂ concentrations in a methane economy are low in relation to other scenarios, the projections confirm that global climate warming is likely to be a major planetary concern throughout the twenty-first century. A second finding is that data on past growth of world per capita energy consumption group neatly into two pulses consistent with longwave theories in economics.