Atrazine in a Stream-Aquifer System: Estimation of Aquifer Properties from Atrazine Concentration Profiles

Lincolns municipal wellfield consists of 44 wells developed in an alluvial aquifer adjacent to the Platte River near Ashland, Nebraska Induced recharge from the river is the primary source of water for the wellfield. Wafer samples were collected on a periodic basis from the Platte River arid two transects of monitoring wells. These samples were analyzed for the herbicide atrazine, which was used as a tracer of induced recharge in this stream-aquifer system. Atrazine concentrations in the river and aquifer were much less than 1.0 ppb during late fall and winter, but increased to as high as 18.9 ppb during spring and summer, associated with runoff from upgradient agricultural lands. There was approximately a 21-day lag time from the first detection of increasing atrazine concentration in the river to the first detection in monitoring wells immediately adjacent to the river. This lag time was relatively constant throughout the year and from one year to the next, even with major fluctuations of river stage and wellfield production. This consistency of lag time indicated that the travel times from the river to the first set of monitoring wells immediately adjacent to the river were fairly constant.
Paths of preferential flow were identified in the aquifer at a depth of 25 to 35 feet below land surface. This aquifer zone appeared to play a significant role in movement of water from beneath the river into the wellfield.
Aquifer dispersivity was calculated using a method described by Hoehn and Santschi (1987). Macrodispersivity (A_L) was shown to increase linearly over the scale of the wellfield. Calculated values of A_L were within limits of other reported values for this type of aquifer material and agreed well with values reported by Hoehn and Santschi (1987); These findings will be extremely beneficial for planning and management of the municipal wellfield.     

强震人员损失回归预测方法

在回顾近年对地震人员损失预测的研究工作的基础上,根据USGS的PAGER系统中地震人员损失回归模型,利用发生在1970-2008年间的128条地震现场调查灾害记录建立了我国东、西部区域适用的地震人员损失预测模型;并利用发生在1980-2007年间的234条地震损失记录建立了地震人员重伤数与人员死亡数的回归关系;最后利用模型对2008年四川汶川地震的人员损失进行评估计算,得到了与实际震害损失相接近的评估结果。     

样本条件变化对地震学参数计算结果的影响

选取1970年以来中国大陆东南地区5.0级以上、 华北地区5.5级以上、 西部地区7.0级以上地震作为研究对象, 并选择了8种物理意义明确、 独立性较强的地震学指标进行全时空的异常扫描, 通过改变采样时间域尺度、 空间域滑移及强度区间等样本条件, 分析对地震学指标时间进程计算结果的影响, 并讨论了空间扫描滑移方向相对于区域主应力方向的变化对参数扫描结果的影响。 结果表明, 空间参数的改变对扫描结果的影响最大, 并给出了不同震级地震学指标在扫描中影响最小的空间范围和时空扫描的最佳条件参数。     

再论各向异性介质转换波地震学,第二部分:参数计算研究

在具有垂直对称轴横向各向同性介质中，利用四种参数来确定中间至远偏移距转换波（C-波）动校正。它们是C-波叠加速度Vc2，垂直速度比和有效速度比γ0和γeff以及各向异性参数χeff。我们将这四种参数作为C波叠加速度模型。C-波速度分析的目的就是确定这种叠加速度模型。C-波叠加速度模型Vc2，γ0，γeff，和χeff可以由P-波和C-波反射动校正资料获得。然而错误的传播是C-波反射动校正反演中的严重问题。当前短排列叠加速度由于是从双曲线动校正推算而得，因而其精度不足以为各向异性参数提供有意义的反演值。中间偏移非双曲线动校正不再被人们所勿略，而是可以用一个背景γ加以量化。非双曲线分析通过中间偏移距的γ校正量可以产生Vc2，若数据不含燥音，其误差小于1％。方法稳健，允许γ启始假定值的误差达20％。该方法也适用垂直非均匀各向异性介质。精度的提高使能够用4分量地震资料计算各向异性参数。为此提出了两种工作流程：双扫描和单扫描流程。理论数据和实际数据的应用表明这两种流程得出的结果其精度相似，但是单扫描流程比双扫描更有效。     

基于多元自回归样条的液化侧移灾害评估模型

为了将液化侧移计算方法本土化,本文基于Youd等人收集的液化侧移数据库,采用擅长处理复杂参数维度问题的多元自适应样条回归法（MARS）建立液化侧移计算模型。经验证,该方法建立的模型精度和可靠性都可以通过检验。本文主要内容包括：（1）在本土化过程中,本文选取峰值加速度PGA作为地震动参数,替代现有模型中的M和R,计算结果并未影响液化侧移计算精度;（2）在MARS方法进行建模过程中,对临空和缓坡两种情况的影响因素进行重要性程度计算和筛选;（3）建立两种情况下的液化侧移计算模型,并用F检验法和t检验以及新西兰2010—2011年系列地震中液化侧移数据进行检验,证明本文方法的合理性和可靠性。本文的结果能满足我国相关规范、工程师以及岩土地震工程防灾减灾等方面的需求,还可为地震液化侧移灾害小区划提供理论基础。     

基于多元线性回归方法的砌体结构加固费用估算模型研究

为建立适用于砌体结构的加固费用快速估算模型,对中国陕西、山西、四川等地砌体结构建筑物的历史加固费用及相关建筑参数进行统计,建立涵盖35栋砌体结构建筑物加固费用估算模型的回归与验证数据库,同时对影响加固费用的各建筑参数作显著性分析,并基于后向消去的多元线性回归方法,利用SPSS统计分析软件对已采集的加固数据进行回归,得到4个费用估算模型;按照相应评价准则分别对各模型进行评价,提出一套最优的砌体结构加固费用快速估算模型,并对该回归模型进行验证分析。回归得到的费用估算模型满足精度要求,具有一定的工程应用价值。     

Estimation of Nonlinear Soil Behavior During the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, Earthquake

The 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake (M_w = 7.6) was one of the strongest earthquakes in recent years recorded by a large number of strong-motion devices. Though only surface records are available, the obtained strong-motion database indicates the variety of ground responses in the near-fault zones. In this study, accelerograms of the Chi-Chi earthquake were simulated at rock and soil sites, and models of soil behavior were constructed at seven soil sites (TCU065, TCU072, TCU138, CHY026, CHY104, CHY074, and CHY015), for which parameters of the soil profiles are known down to depths of at least ~70 m and at 24 other soil sites, for which parameters of the soil profiles are known down to 30–40 m; all the sites were located within ~50 km from the fault. For reconstructing stresses and strains in the soil layers, we used a method similar to that developed for the estimation of soil behavior based on vertical array records. As input for the soil layers, acceleration time histories simulated by stochastic finite-fault modelling with a prescribed slip distribution over the fault plane were taken. In spite of the largeness of the earthquake’s magnitude and the proximity of the studied soil sites to the fault plane, the soil behavior at these sites was relatively simple, i.e., a fairly good agreement between the spectra of the observed and simulated accelerograms and between their waveforms was obtained even in cases where a single stress-strain relation was used to describe the behavior of whole soil thickness down to ~70–80 m during strong motion. Obviously, this is due to homogeneity in the characteristics of soil layers in depth. At all the studied sites, resonant phenomena in soil layers (down to ~40–60 m) and nonlinearity of soil response were the main factors defining soil behavior. At TCU065, TCU110, TCU115, CHY101, CHY036, and CHY039 liquefaction phenomena occurred in the upper soil layers, estimated strains achieved ~0.6–0.8%; at other stations, maximum strains in the soil layers were as high as 0.1–0.4%, according to our estimates. Thus, valuable data on the in situ soil behavior during the Chi-Chi earthquake was obtained. Similarity in the behavior of similar soils during the 1995 Kobe, 2000 Tottori (Japan), and Chi-Chi (Taiwan) earthquakes was found, indicating the possibility of forecasting soil behavior in future earthquakes. In the near-fault zones of the three earthquakes, “hard-type” soil behavior and resonant phenomena in the upper surface layers prevail, both leading to high acceleration amplitudes on the surface.     

Estimation of Nonlinear Time-dependent Soil Behavior in Strong Ground Motion Based on Vertical Array Data

To improve our understanding of nonlinear elastic properties of soils, a method is proposed of estimation of stress-strain relations of soils in situ in strong ground motion based on vertical array data. Strong motion records provided by seismic vertical arrays allow estimation of nonlinear stress-strain relations in soil layers at different depths, from the surface down to the location of the deepest device. As an example, records obtained during the main shock of the 1995 Kobe earthquake at Port-Island, SGK, and TKS sites were used to estimate the stress-strain relations in the soil profiles. For different layers, different types of nonlinear stress-strain relations were selected, according to the profiling data. To account for temporal changes in the soil behavior, consecutive parts of records were examined, and for successive time intervals, the relations were found showing the best-fit approximation to the observed data. At Port Island and SGK sites, where the strongest accelerations were recorded, the obtained stress-strain relations showed systematic changes in the upper layers (0–14 m), such as, a progressive reduction of the slopes of the stress-strain curves due to liquefaction at Port Island and reduction and recovery of the slopes at SGK and TKS sites. At the three sites, the stress-strain relations remained stable in layers below 11–14 m. Thus, the proposed approach gives us a representation of the soil behavior in layers at different depths in strong ground motion; it allows calculation of the propagation of arbitrary seismic signals in the studied profiles and estimation of nonlinear components in the ground response by the nonlinear system identification technique. The method can also be applied to evaluate the ground response at sites where profiling data are available and an imposed motion can be estimated.     

Evaluation of Porosity and Saturation Degree by Laboratory Joint Measurements of Velocity and Resistivity: A Model Improvement

—This paper illustrates the laboratory procedures and experiments carried out on samples with different lithologies and reconstructed samples in order to test and implement an electroseismic model (Carrara et al., 1994) which allows the evaluation of porosity and the saturation degree of rocks. The testing was conducted by comparing porosity (Φ) and saturation degree (S _w ?) values, obtained from measured resistivity (ρ) and elastic wave velocity (V _P ?) by means of appropriate formulations, with the values of Φ and S _w previously calculated by geotechnics and employed as standards. The experimental results have led to a good definition of the model to be proposed as an application method in the field of hydrogeology.