Seasonal Variation of Dimethylsulfoxide in Rainwater at Amsterdam Island in the Southern Indian Ocean: Implications on the Biogenic Sulfur Cycle

A continuous record of dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO) in rainwater was performed at Amsterdam island (37°S 77°E) from December 1995 to February 1997. Eighty one rainwater samples were collected. DMSO, methanesulfonic acid (MSA), the major anions, and cations were analyzed. DMSO concentrations ranged from 7.0 to 369 nM, with a distinct seasonal variation. The mean concentrations during the summer and the winter periods were 90 nM and 25.6 nM respectively. The observed DMSO seasonal cycle is in line with the observations of DMS in the atmosphere and MSA in rainwater, measured simultaneously during the reported period. However, the summer to winter ratio of DMSO is significantly lower than that observed for DMS and MSA. The DMSO to MSA ratio and its observed seasonal variability are also presented. The implications on the biogenic sulfur cycle are discussed.     

Seasonal variation of atmospheric dimethylsulfide at Amsterdam Island in the southern Indian Ocean

Daily measurements of atmospheric concentrations of dimethylsulfide (DMS) were carried out for two years in a marine site at remote area: the Amsterdam Island (37°50S–77°31E) located in the southern Indian Ocean. DMS concentrations were also measured in seawater. A seasonal variation is observed for both DMS in the atmosphere and in the sea-surface. The monthly averages of DMS concentrations in the surface coastal seawater and in the atmosphere ranged, respectively, from 0.3 to 2.0 nmol l^-1 and from 1.4 to 11.3 nmol m^-3 (34 to 274 pptv), with the highest values in summer. The monthly variation of sea-to-air flux of DMS from the southern Indian Ocean ranges from 0.7 to 4.4 mol m^-2 d^-1. A factor of 2.3 is observed between summer and winter with mean DMS fluxes of 3.0 and 1.3 mol m^-2 d^-1, respectively.     

Seasonal variations of atmospheric sulfur dioxide and dimethylsulfide concentrations at Amsterdam Island in the southern Indian Ocean

Daily measurements of atmospheric sulfur dioxide (SO₂) concentrations were performed from March 1989 to January 1991 at Amsterdam Island (37°50 S–77°30 E), a remote site located in the southern Indian Ocean. Long-range transport of continental air masses was studied using Radon (²²²Rn) as continental tracer. Average monthly SO₂ concentrations range from less than 0.2 to 3.9 nmol m^-3 (annual average = 0.7 nmol m^-3) and present a seasonal cycle with a minimum in winter and a maximum in summer, similar to that described for atmospheric DMS concentrations measured during the same period. Clear diel correlation between atmospheric DMS and SO₂ concentrations is also observed during summer. A photochemical box model using measured atmospheric DMS concentrations as input data reproduces the seasonal variations in the measured atmospheric SO₂ concentrations within ±30%. Comparing between computed and measured SO₂ concentrations allowed us to estimate a yield of SO₂ from DMS oxidation of about 70%.     

Emission and flux of DMS from the Australian Antarctic and Subantarctic Oceans during the 1988/89 summer

DMS emissions and fluxes from the Australasian sector of the Antarctic and Subantarctic Oceans, bound by 46–68° S and 65.5–142.6° E, were determined from a limited number of samples (n=32) collected during three summer resupply voyages to Australian Antarctic continental research bases between November 1988 and January 1989 (a 92 day period). The maximum DMS emission from this sector of the Antarctic Ocean was in an area near the Antarctic Divergence (60–63° S) and the minimum DMS emission was from the Antarctic coastal and offshelf waters. The greatest emission of DMS from this sector of the Southern Ocean was from the Subantarctic waters. DMS flux from the Australasian Antarctic Ocean was 64.3×10⁶ (±115) mol d^–1 or 5.9 (±10.6)×10⁹ mol based on an emission of 10.9 (±19.5) µmol m^–2 d^–1 (n=26). The flux of DMS from the Australasian sector of the Subantarctic Ocean was probably twice the flux of DMS from the adjacent Antarctic Ocean.     

Annual variation of atmospheric carbonyl sulfide in the marine atmosphere in the Southern Indian Ocean

Measurements of the concentrations of carbonyl sulfide (COS) in the marine atmosphere were made over a period of two years in the southern Indian Ocean (Amsterdam Island, 37°50 S–77°31 E; March 1987–February 1988 and April 1989–February 1990). The mean atmospheric COS concentration for the whole period was 475±48 pptv (n=544). Atmospheric COS concentrations show no significant seasonal variation with a summer to winter ratio of 1.05. Taking into account the observed variability of the atmospheric COS concentration (10%), a value of 1.4 yr is estimated as a lower limit for the atmospheric COS lifetime. A comparison of the COS data at Amsterdam Island with those obtained in the Southern Hemisphere in the past 12 yr does not reveal any significant trend in the tropospheric background COS mixing ratio.     

Relation between the concentrations of DMS in surface seawater and air in the temperate North Pacific region

The concentrations of DMS were simultaneously measured in both water and air at the sea surface on board a vessel during a trans-Pacific cruise around 40° N in August 1988. Those in the surface seawater varied widely with a mean of 162 ng S/1 and a standard deviation of 134 ng S/1 (n=37), but the variation was not a mere fluctuation and the high concentration (376 ng S/1) was found in the area between 145° W and 170° W. The atmospheric DMS concentration varied more widely with a mean value of 177 ng S/m³ and a standard deviation of 203 ng S/m³ (n=23). The diurnal variation of DMS was not significant in the air near the sea surface. However, the concentrations in the surface water was fairly well correlated with those in the surface air. The correlation coefficient (r ²=0.86) was larger than that between the atmospheric concentration and outflux of DMS (r ²=0.64). These findings mean that the turnover time of DMS in the atmosphere is not extremely short. Based on the linear relation between the atmospheric and seawater DMS, the turnover time of the atmospheric DMS has been calculated to be 0.9 days with an uncertainty of around 50%. The oxidation rate agrees fairly well with that expected from the OH radical concentration in the marine atmosphere.     

A global three-dimensional model of the tropospheric sulfur cycle

The tropospheric part of the atmospheric sulfur cycle has been simulated in a global three-dimensional model. The model treats the emission, transport, chemistry, and removal processes for three sulfur components; DMS (dimethyl sulfide), SO₂ and SO₄ ^2– (sulfate). These processes are resolved using an Eulerian transport model, the MOGUNTIA model, with a horizontal resolution of 10° longitude by 10° latitude and with 10 layers in the vertical between the surface and 100 hPa. Advection takes place by climatological monthly mean winds. Transport processes occurring on smaller space and time scales are parameterized as eddy diffusion except for transport in deep convective clouds which is treated separately. The simulations are broadly consistent with observations of concentrations in air and precipitation in and over polluted regions in Europe and North America. Oxidation of DMS by OH radicals together with a global emission of 16 Tg DMS-S yr^–1 from the oceans result in DMS concentrations consistent with observations in the marine boundary layer. The average turn-over times were estimated to be 3, 1.2–1.8, and 3.2–6.1 days for DMS, SO₂, and SO₄ ^2– respectively.     

Surface Characteristics Observed over the Central Tropical Indian Ocean During Indoex IFP99

The present study is based on the observations carried out over the IndianOcean from the Indian research vessel ORV Sagar Kanya during the intensive field phase of the Indian Ocean Experiment in January–March 1999. The study area spanned from 15°N to 20°S in the central Indian Ocean. Near surface variations and surface fluxes along the cruise track are presented. A comparison of near surface characteristics over the Indian Ocean and tropical west Pacific has been made. It is observed that the average difference between the sea surface temperature and air temperature at 10 m height was 0.7 °C over the study area, nearly half of that observed over the tropical west Pacific. A comparison between observed and NCEP reanalysissurface data has been made. We find good agreement between ship measured andNCEP reanalysis surface pressure, specific humidity and wind fields.On the other hand, surface air temperature in the reanalysis tends to be lowcompared to observations. The components of the net surface heat flux comparebetter in the north Indian Ocean than in the southern Indian Ocean.     

Mid latitude winter climate variability in the South Indian and southwest Pacific regions since 1300 AD

Mid-latitude winter atmospheric variability in the South Indian Ocean and southwest Pacific Ocean regions of the circum-Antarctic are reconstructed using sea-salt aerosol concentrations measured in the high resolution Law Dome (DSS) ice core from East Antarctica. The sea-salt aerosol concentration data, as sodium (Na), were measured at approximately monthly resolution spanning the past 700 years. Analyses of covariations between Na concentrations in Law Dome ice, and mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) and wind field data were conducted to define the mid-latitude and sub-Antarctic atmospheric circulation patterns associated with variations in Na delivery. High Na concentrations in Law Dome snow are associated with increased meridional aerosol transport from mid-latitude sources. The seasonal average Na concentration for early winter (May, June, July (MJJ)) is strongly correlated to the mid-latitude MSLP field in the South Indian and southwest Pacific Oceans, and southern Australian regions. In addition, the average MJJ Na concentrations display a strong association with the stationary Rossby wave number 3 circulation, and are anti-correlated to the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index of climate variability: high (low) Na concentrations occurring during negative (positive) SAM phases. This observed relationship is used to derive a proxy record for early-winter MSLP anomalies and the SAM in the South Indian and southwest Pacific Ocean regions over the period 1300–1995 AD. The proxy SAM index from 1300 to 1995 AD shows pronounced decadal-scale variability throughout. The period after 1500 AD is marked by a tendency toward slower variations and a weakly-positive mean SAM (enhanced westerlies in the 50° to 65°S zone) compared to the early part of the record.     

Spatial, Temporal and Interannual Variability of Methanesulfonate and Non-Sea-Salt Sulfate in Rainwater in the Southern Indian Ocean (Amsterdam, Crozet and Kerguelen Islands)

Methanesulfonate (MS^–) and non-sea-salt sulfate (nss-SO ₄ ^2– ), two of the major oxidation products of atmospheric dimethylsulfide (DMS), have been continuously measured in rainwater at three remote islands in the Southern Indian Ocean: Amsterdam since 1991, Crozet since 1992, and Kerguelen since 1993. The annual volume weighted mean (VWM) concentrations of nss-SO ₄ ^2– in rainwater were 3.19, 3.04 and 4.57 eq l^–1 at Amsterdam, Crozet, and Kerguelen, respectively while the VWM of MS^– were 0.24, 0.15 and 0.30 eq l^–1, respectively. At all three islands, MS^– presented a well-distinguished seasonal variation with a maximum during summer whereas the seasonal variation of nss-SO ₄ ^2– was less pronounced, possibly due to the increased anthropogenic influence during the winter period. Furthermore, MS^– presented significant interannual variations, in particular at Amsterdam and Crozet, which is closely related to the sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies). Finally, the nss-SO ₄ ^2– deposition at Crozet Island presented a decreasing interannual trend, reflecting probably reductions in sulfur emissions from Southern Africa. On the contrary no interannual tendency was observed in the nss-SO ₄ ^2– concentrations at Amsterdam Island, indicating that the biogeochemical sulfur cycle at this area is mainly influenced by biogenic emissions.     

A study of climate and weather variability over the tropical southwest Indian Ocean

Summary The climatology and variability of summer convection and circulation over the tropical southwest Indian Ocean is investigated using satellite imagery, routine synoptic observations, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data, sea surface temperatures (SST) and areal averaged rainfall departures. OLR has a –0.90 correlation with rainfall departures and the OLR minimum (ITCZ) in January and February lies across the 10°S latitude, extending further south near Madagascar. The intensity of ITCZ convection is greatest in the longitudes 20–35°E over northern Zambia and is considerably reduced over the SW Indian Ocean. Spatial correlations are analyzed for standardized departures of OLR, rainfall and SST. The correlations change sign in a coherent fashion, creating a climatic dipole between southern Africa and the SW Indian Ocean. Interannual trends are examined through analysis of January–February zonal and meridional wind indices constructed from significantly correlated variables at Zimbabwe, Madagascar and Mauritius. Circulation variability is dominated by quasi-decadal cycles and a trend of inereasing westerly winds. Zonal wind shear alternates from easterly (barotropic) to westerly and together with SST appears to regulate the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclogenesis. Areally averaged rainfall departures exhibit 6.25 year cycles in NE Madagascar and 12.5 and 18.75 year cycles in SW Madagascar and Zimbabwe, respectively. Summer rainfall and meridional winds in NE Madagascar and Zimbabwe are out of phase and negatively correlated in most summers. The presence of synoptic weather systems is assessed using daily Hovmoller-type satellite imagery composites. Convective structure is dominated by transient waves in the 10°–20°S latitude band, with periods of 15–20 days common. The waves are more prominent in summers with increased easterly shear and contribute to fluctuations in rainfall over SE Africa.With 8 Figures     

The biogeochemical sulfur cycle in the marine boundary layer over the Northeast Pacific Ocean

The major components of the marine boundary layer biogeochemical sulfur cycle were measured simultaneously onshore and off the coast of Washington State, U.S.A. during May 1987. Seawater dimethylsulfide (DMS) concentrations on the continental shelf were strongly influenced by coastal upwelling. Concentration further offshore were typical of summer values (2.2 nmol/L) at this latitude. Although seawater DMS concentrations were high on the biologically productive continental shelf (2–12 nmol/L), this region had no measurable effect on atmospheric DMS concentrations. Atmospheric DMS concentrations (0.1–12 nmol/m³), however, were extremely dependent upon wind speed and boundary layer height. Although there appeared to be an appreciable input of non-sea-salt sulfate to the marine boundary layer from the free troposphere, the local flux of DMS from the ocean to the atmosphere was sufficient to balance the remainder of the sulfur budget.     

Submicron aerosols over Indian Ocean: some meteorological characteristics

The concentrations of submicron aerosols in the size range 10⁻⁷ to 10⁻⁵ cm, also called Aitken nuclei (AN) were measured over the Indian Ocean enroute India-Antarctica-India within the 10°E–70°E longitude zone from about 10°N to 70°S latitude on board MV Thuleland during the period from November 26, 1986 to March 18, 1987 as part of the scientific activities on the Sixth Indian Antarctic Expedition. Our analyses showed that only in about 25% of the cases, AN count fell below 1000 cm⁻³. Throughout the tropical trade wind region, the concentrations of AN were relatively stable with an average of about 3000 cm⁻³ (medians of 2600 and 1700 cm⁻³ in Northern and Southern Hemispheres, respectively). Large AN concentrations were found to be associated with higher sea surface temperatures and stronger surface winds in this region. In contrast, the scatter of single observations was found to be remarkable over South Indian Ocean and in Antarctic waters. The average AN concentration over the Indian Ocean to the south of 30°S was of the order of 1500 cm⁻³. No definite correlation could be established between large AN concentration and sea surface temperature, wind speed or wave height. Period with very low concentrations were, however, associated with clear sky conditions and calm winds or light breeze. Many events of sudden short-lived but large increase in AN concentrations were observed over the south Indian Ocean and in Antarctic waters and these were always associated with the approach of frontal systems. It is likely that particle production by bursting bubbles and sea spray as well as photochemical reactions and gas-to-particle conversions play important role in the observed high concentration of AN over South Indian Ocean.     

Links between rainfall variability on intraseasonal and interannual scales over western Tanzania and regional circulation and SST patterns

Summary This study investigates the circulation anomalies associated with the intraseasonal evolution of wet and dry years over western Tanzania (29–37° E, 11.5–4.75° S) and how the onset and withdrawal of the rainy season as well as its wet spell characteristics are modified. It is found that for wet years, the rains begin earlier and end later, with strong wet spells occurring during the season, and there tend to be a greater number of moderate wet spells (although not necessarily more intense wet spells) than in dry years. In dry years, late onset and early cessation of the rainy season occur, often with an extended dry spell soon after the onset, and there tend to be a greater number of dry spells within the season. Large negative outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) anomaly values tend to be located between 20° and 40° E with anomalous westerly flow at 850 hPa occurring across the continent from 10° E to the tropical western Indian Ocean during wet spells in the anomalously wet seasons. Anomalously dry seasons are characterised by large positive OLR anomalies over 30–50° E as well as easterly anomalies at 850 hPa and westerly anomalies at 200 hPa. Eastward propagating intraseasonal anomalies are slower during the wet years implying that the convection remains over Tanzania longer. On the intraseasonal scale, Hovmoeller analyses of OLR and 850 and 200 hPa zonal wind indicate that convection over western Tanzania may be associated with a flux of moisture from the tropical southeast Atlantic and Congo basin followed by weak easterlies from the tropical western Indian Ocean.On interannual scales, wet (dry) years are characterized over the Indian Ocean by weaker (stronger) equatorial westerlies and weaker (stronger) trades that lead to less (more) export of equatorial moisture away from East Africa and increased (decreased) low-level moisture flux convergence over southern Tanzania, respectively. These anomalies arise from an anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly over the tropical western Indian Ocean during wet (dry) austral summers that may be related to cool (warm) SST anomalies there. Large scale modulation of the Indian Ocean Walker cell is also evident in both cases, but particularly for the dry years.Current affiliation: Tanzania Meteorological Agency, P.O. Box 3056, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania     

Evolution and variability of the ITCZ in the SW Indian Ocean: 1988–90

Summary The structure and variability of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the SW Indian Ocean in the austral summer is investigated. The ITCZ is identified by satellite microwave (SSMI) precipitable water (PW) values > 5 g cm^–2, minimum outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) values < 220 W m^–2 and the pattern of convergence in the low level (850 hPa) winds. According to OLR climatology, the ITCZ lies over 15°S latitude to the west of Madagascar (40–50°E), but near 10°S to the east of 60°E. Inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability is induced by the interaction of the convective NW monsoon and subsident easterly trades. Symptoms of the structure and variability are presented using tropical cyclone (TC) tracks, axes of PW exceedences and OLR, 850hPa wind and PW fields in the period 1988–1990. The shape and intensity of the ITCZ is modulated by the strength of the NW monsoon off east Africa and by standing vortices in the SW Indian Ocean. The topography of Madagascar imparts a distinctive break in convective characteristics, and distinguishes the SE African ITCZ from its maritime counterpart.With 6 Figures     

Latitudinal variation of air sea fluxes in the western Indian ocean during austral summer and fall

Daily and zonal (latitudinal belt) averages of heat and momentum fluxes were computed using bulk aerodynamic formulae, from the meteorological parameters measured onboard M. S. Thuleland during the sixth Indian scientific expedition to Antarctica (26th November, 1986 to 22nd March, 1987). Both estimates showed significant variations, the momentum flux showing the largest variation. The maximum values of sensible and latent heat fluxes were observed over the 30°–40° S and 10°–20° S zones during the southern summer and fall respectively while the minimum values of latent heat flux were observed in the 60°–70° S zone for both seasons. The sensible heat flux minimum was observed in the 50°°60° S and 60°–70° S zones for summer and fall, respectively. Higher momentum flux values over the 40°–50° S zone in summer shifted to the 50°–60° S zone during fall.     

Short-Term Variability of Atmospheric DMS and Its Oxidation Products at Amsterdam Island during Summer Time

A one-month experiment was performed at Amsterdam Island in January 1998, to investigate the factors controlling the short-term variations of atmospheric dimethylsulfide (DMS) and its oxidation products in the mid-latitudes remote marine atmosphere. High mixing ratios of DMS, sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO) have been observed during this experiment, with mean concentrations of 395 parts per trillion by volume (pptv) (standard deviation, = 285, n = 500), 114 pptv ( = 125, n = 12) and 3 pptv ( = 1.2, n = 167), respectively. Wind speed and direction were identified as the major factors controlling atmospheric DMS levels. Changes in air temperature/air masses origin were found to strongly influence the dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO)/DMS and SO₂/DMS molar ratios, in line with recent laboratory data. Methanesulfonic acid (MSA) and non-sea-salt sulfate (nss-SO₄ ^2–) mean concentrations in aerosols during this experiment were 12.2± 6.5 pptv (1, n=47) and 59 ± 33 pptv (1, n=47), respectively. Evidence of vertical entrainment was reported following frontal passages, with injection of moisture-poor, ozone-rich air. High MSA/ nss-SO₄ ^2– molar ratios (mean 0.44) were calculated during these events. Finally following frontal passages, few spots in condensation nuclei (CN) concentration were also observed.     

Temporal and spatial variability of SSTs in the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans

Summary The objective of this study is to describe spatial and temporal patterns of sea-surface temperature (SST) variability in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. The analysis domain extends from 40°S to 25°N and 50°W to 80°E, hence the tropical and most of the South Atlantic and central and western Indian Oceans. The investigation, covering the years 1948 to 1979, utilizes the COADS marine data set. Empirical orthogonal functions and spectral analysis are used to analyze SST fields.A major finding of this investigation is that SSTs vary coherently throughout most of the analysis domain. The greatest coherence is evident from 10°N to 30°S in the Atlantic and from 20°N to 35°S in the western Indian Ocean. Spectral analysis of regional time series shows that throughout this region the time scale of 5–6 years is the dominant one in the fluctuations; this is also the case for the Southern Oscillation and for equatorial rainfall. SST variations are roughly in-phase within each ocean and the two oceans are roughly in-phase with each other, i.e., the lags which exist are much smaller than the dominant time scale of the fluctuations. The SST anomalies appear to propagate eastward from NE Brazil; the eastern Atlantic lags the western by two to six months and the Indian Ocean lags the western Atlantic by four to eight months.With 15 Figures     

On the synoptic climatology of the Tristan da Cunha region

Summary A climatic summary of the observations made at Tristan da Cunha (approximately 37°S, 12°W) is presented including only those elements which are representative of conditions over the open sea. An attempt is then made to describe the synoptic climatology of the area around the island by means of 10 basic weather types. Comparisons are drawn with New Amsterdam Island (approximately 38°S, 77.5°E) which show that meridional circulation types with a regular west-east movement are predominant in the South Atlantic Ocean. In the South Indian Ocean zonal circulation patterns prevail with a strong tendency for south-north movement.

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Zusammenfassung Eine Klimatabelle der monatlichen Mittelwerte für 13 bis 14 Jahre Beobachtungen auf Tristan da Cunha im mittleren Südatlantik (37°S, 12°W) wird mitgeteilt (Luftdruck, Luft- und Wasser-Temperatur, Niederschlag, relative Feuchtigkeit sowie relative Häufigkeit von Windgeschwindigkeiten über 26 Knoten).Es wird danach versucht, mit Hilfe von 10 Hauptwettertypen das Wettergeschehen im Gebiet rund um Tristan da Cunha zu beschreiben. In einem Vergleich mit Neu-Amsterdam (38°S, 77.5°E) im südlichen Indischen Ozean wird der wesentliche Unterschied der atmosphärischen Zirkulationsarten über den beiden Ozeanen darin gefunden, daß über dem Südatlantik eine meridionale Zirkulation mit ausgesprochener West-Ost-Verlagerung über dem südlichen Indischen Ozean aber ein mehr zonaler Ablauf vorherrscht.

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Résumé Tableau climatologique des moyennes mensuelles de 13 à 14 ans de Tristan da Cunha (37°S, 12°W) dans l'Atlantique Sud: pression, température de l'air et de l'eau, précipitations, humidité relative et fréquences relatives des vitesses de vent supérieures à 26 nuds.L'auteur tente sur cette base et en adoptant dix types de temps de décrire l'allure du temps dans la région de Tristan da Cunha. Une comparaison avec la Nouvelle Amsterdam (38°S, 77.5E), dans l'Océan Indien méridional, montre une divergence notable entre les deux océans: l'Océan Atlantique Sud présente une circulation méridienne se déplaçant d'Ouest en Est, et l'Océan Indien méridional par contre une circulation plutôt zonale.

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With 5 Figures     

Simulation of the variability and extremes of daily rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon for present and future times in a global time-slice experiment

In this study the simulation of the variability and extremes of daily rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon for the present-day and the future climate is investigated. This is done on the basis of a global time-slice experiment (TSL) with the ECHAM4 atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) at a high horizontal resolution of T106. The first time-slice (period: 1970–1999) represents the present-day climate and the second (2060–2089) the future climate. Moreover, observational rainfall data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP, 1997–2002) and rainfall data from the ECMWF re-analysis (ERA, 1958–2001) are considered. ERA reveals serious deficiencies in its representation of the variability and extremes of daily rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon. These are mainly a severe overestimation of the frequency of wet days over the oceans and in the Himalayas, where also the rainfall intensity is overestimated. Further, ERA shows unrealistically heavy rainfall events over the tropical Indian Ocean. The ECHAM4 atmospheric GCM at a horizontal resolution of T106, on the other hand, simulates the variability and extremes of daily rainfall in good agreement with the observations. The only marked deficiencies are an underestimation of the rainfall intensity on the west coast of the Indian peninsula and in Bangladesh, an overestimation over the tropical Indian Ocean, due to an erroneous northwestward extension of the tropical convergence zone, and an overestimation of the frequency of wet days in Tibet. Further, heavy rainfall events are relatively strong in the centre of the Indian peninsula. For the future, TSL predicts large increases in the rainfall intensity over the tropical Indian Ocean as well as in northern Pakistan and northwest India, but decreases in southern Pakistan, in the centre of the Indian peninsula, and over the western part of the Bay of Bengal. The frequency of wet days is markedly increased over the tropical Indian Ocean and decreased over the northern part of the Arabian Sea and in Tibet. The intensity of heavy rainfall events is generally increased in the future, with large increases over the Arabian Sea and the tropical Indian Ocean, in northern Pakistan and northwest India as well as in northeast India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar.