Crustal attenuation for Jamaica, West Indies

The S and coda wave spectra of small earthquakes on the island of Jamaica were used to determine the near surface and coda Q attenuation, and Q _c,respectively. Q _c determined by the single-station method was found in the range of 1 to 10 Hertz to be given by the relationship, Q _c= 60 ± 5f ^0.87±0.05. This suggests that the Jamaican crust is highly attenuating which is further supported by the observation of rapid intensity fall-off with distance for earthquakes that have affected the island in the past. , determined from S-wave spectra with short travel times was found to be 0.058 ± 0.012 on the central crustal block, which makes up nearly two-thirds of the island, and 0.080 ± 0.014 in surrounding belt sub-regions. The pattern of values seems to fit with the surface geology in that the central block has areas of exposed outcrops of older and harder rock than the belts, which are characterized by thicker sedimentary sequences as well as intense fracturing and faulting.Atkinson and Boore (1998) and Atkinson(2001) presented an alternative method to stochastic modelling for ground motion in Eastern North America, whereby California attenuation relationships were modified to account for crustal differences invelocity-depth profile, Q and between both regions. Following their example, the California spectral attenuation relation of Boore, Joyner and Fumal (1997) was modified to account for differences between the California and Jamaica crust, resulting in an attenuation relation that is deemed to be more appropriate for Jamaica. Spectral accelerations for Jamaica when compared to California, are especially reduced beyond 20 km from the source and at high frequencies, f 1 hertz.The study concludes that the Jamaican crust, although having an oceanic composition is highly attenuating, which may be a result of intensive tectonic processes, whereas is consistent with near-rock conditions on the central block and soft rock conditions elsewhere on the island.     

Seismicity and earthquake hazard in Trinidad and Tobago,West Indies

The two-island Republic of Trinidad and Tobago in the eastern Caribbean has enjoyed increased physical and industrial development in recent years; however, these islands have been subjected to damaging earthquakes during their history and an up-to-date risk assessment is needed. We examine two approaches to quantifying this problem: (a) the risk estimated probabilistically using recent instrumental data and (b) the hazard inferred from regional tectonic movements. The probabilistic approach indicates that peak ground accelerations with a probability of exceedance of 10 per cent in 50 years could range from 0–23g in Tobago to 0–36g in North-West Trinidad. Tectonic considerations suggest that a maximum-moment earthquake occurring directly under either land mass could generate accelerations as high as 0–6g; the probability of occurrence of such an event is estimated to be about 2 per cent in 50 years for Trinidad and about a tenth this risk for Tobago. This level of hazard would be significant for critical facilities such as LNG plants.     

Tertiary spilites and quartz keratophyres of the Wagwater Belt,Jamaica, west Indies

Geochemical and petrographic characteristics are used to identify spilites, quartz keratophyres and potassic quartz keratophyres as the most abundant rock types among the Tertiary volcanics of Jamaica. A few low K₂O dacites occur within the sequence. The rock suite is bimodal and was erupted in a nonorogenic environment, an Eocene rift. The evidence indicates that the keratophyres were formed by alteration of the original dacites during an episode of alkali metasomatism. The concentrations of TiO₂, P₂O₃, Cr, Zr and Y suggest that the spilites were formed from basic rocks similar to the Columbia River or Deccan flood basalts. Their chemical variations indicate that they were formed by processes similar to those leading to the formation of the keratophyres.     

广东及邻区地震活动特征及近期地震危险性分析

通过对1067～2002年广东及邻区地震活动的研究结果表明,本区6级以上地震主要发生在沿海近海区域,7级以上地震全部位于海中,陆地的中强地震主要发生在北东向和北西向断裂带或其交汇部位,本区陆地不具备孕育7级地震的地质条件。中强地震存在明显的活动周期,当前已进入平静时段。计算了本区各地的地应力,并分析GPS有关观测结果,再结合地震活动参数和有关数理统计结果,认为2005年前本区发生6级以上地震的可能性不大,但存在发生ML5级地震可能。     

Volcano-seismic crisis in Montserrat,West Indies, 1966–67

The Soufriere Hills volcano in the south-eastern part of Montserrat erupted pyroclast flows as recently as A. D. 1646 ± 54 years and must therefore be considered dormant, not extinct. The highly destructive nature of pyroclast flow eruptions makes it imperative that such activity should be predicted and, if the threat of eruption becomes sufficiently large, the population should be moved to a sale distance from the volcano. Sharp increases in seismic and solfataric activity occurred in 1966 and these events indicated the abnormally high risk of an eruption in the near future. A network of four short period seismographs was established in the island in May 1966 and between this date and the end of 1967, 723 local earthquakes were recorded, of which 32 were reported felt in the island. Hypocentres were determined for 189 of these earthquakes, and most of these lay in a WNW to ESE belt beneath the Soufriere Hills, at depths of less than 15 km. The average rate of seismic energy release decreased with time throughout the series but there was a strong seasonal variation with maxima in May and November–December of each year. The average depth of the earthquakes decreased from 5.2 km in April and May 1966 to a minimum of 2.8 km from July to September 1966. After September the mean focal depths increased again and by the end of the crisis in November 1967 the mean depth was 9.7 km. Measurements carried out using water-tube tiltmeters showed that the region 2–3 km south-east of the Soufriere Hills was doming upwards until January 1967, then subsided between January–March 1967 and finally rose again at a slower rate between March and September 1967. Heat flow from Galway’s Soufriere which was 3 × 10⁵ cal/sec in 1954 increased to a maximum of 2 × 10⁵ cal/sec in October 1966, then declined to 5 × 10⁵ cal/sec in September 1967. The earthquake series was not the aftershock sequence of any major tectonic earthquake, and only two hypocentres were determined at depths greater than 15 km. It is concluded that magma was intruded into the upper crust beneath the Soufriere Hills volcano and that the earthquakes and other phenomena resulted from the upward migration of this magma.     

Genesis of marine terrace soils,Barbados, West Indies: Evidence from mineralogy and geochemistry

Well-developed, clay-rich soils dominated by interstratified kaolinite-smectite are found on the uplifted coral reef terraces on the island of Barbados. The reef limestone is unlikely to have been the soil parent material however, because it is 98 per cent CaCO₃ and geomorphic evidence argues against the 20 m of reef solution required to produce the soils by this process. The mineralogy of the sand, silt, and clay fractions of the soils, and trace element geochemistry, suggest that aeolian materials carried on the trade winds from Africa, volcanic ash from the island of St. Vincent, and quartz from Tertiary bedrock on the island itself are the parent materials for the soils.     

A simplified approach for including the incidence angle effect in seismic risk assessment

A simplified procedure is developed to consider the azimuthal orientation of buildings when estimating seismic risk. Two square-plan reinforced concrete building models are considered as a testbed, one with similar and one with dissimilar properties along the two principal horizontal axes. The fragility of both structures is analysed using a set of ground motion records rotated to multiple incidence angles to develop orientation-dependent fragility functions. It has been observed that, re-orienting all records so that these structures have the same azimuth vis-à-vis the corresponding epicentre leads to significant differences compared to assuming random orientations. Additional results stemming from single-degree-of-freedom oscillators further confirm such findings, showing a dependence to the proximity to the faults and the level of dissimilarity in the principal horizontal axes of the structure. The end results point to a non-negligible bias in assessment studies when a structure's orientation with respect to governing rupture scenarios is not taken into account. It is shown that the median of fragility curves calculated for un-rotated incidence angles can be bias-corrected through shifted by an amount that depends on the azimuthal orientation and level of axes-dissimilarity of structures.     

Three-dimensional GPR study of a prehistoric site in Barbados, West Indies

Prior results of surface artifact collecting, test excavations, and auger sampling on an archaeological site in Barbados suggested that we experiment with ground-penetrating radar (GPR) as a method to target areas for future study. The site is associated with village occupations of Amerindians that are dated to between 2000 and 500 years ago. Archaeological features include burials, hearths, ceramic lined wells and postholes. Artifact middens contain pottery sherds, conch shells, and other marine resource debris. The site selected was located at the southern tip of Barbados and is situated on a deep stabilized surface behind a large active dune system. The soil layer consists of dry, clean quartz sand.We obtained limited ground truth at the site by hand auguring in areas of field-identified anomalies, and by auguring control holes away from anomalies. Anomalies were usually large diffractors such as conch shells and rocks. We used 3D visualisation software to perform standard processing enhancements and to assemble the parallel lines into three-dimensional volumes. The dimensions, distribution, and shapes of time-sliced amplitude anomalies were consistent with those of previously excavated burials, poles, and pit structures. In particular, we interpret the data as indicating the presence of a circular house structure with four center posts; this structure was previously unknown at this site. The work presented here builds upon and extends earlier excavation-based findings at this site, and will allow for better-focused excavations in the future.     

A performance‐based framework for adaptive seismic aftershock risk assessment

Operative seismic aftershock risk forecasting can be particularly useful for rapid decision‐making in the presence of an ongoing sequence. In such a context, limit state first‐excursion probabilities (risk) for the forecasting interval (a day) can represent the potential for progressive state of damage in a structure. This work lays out a performance‐based framework for adaptive aftershock risk assessment in the immediate post‐mainshock environment. A time‐dependent structural performance variable is adopted in order to measure the cumulative damage in a structure. A set of event‐dependent fragility curves as a function of the first‐mode spectral acceleration for a prescribed limit state is calculated by employing back‐to‐back nonlinear dynamic analyses. An epidemic‐type aftershock sequence model is employed for estimating the spatio‐temporal evolution of aftershocks. The event‐dependent fragility curves for a given limit state are then integrated together with the probability distribution of aftershock spectral acceleration based on the epidemic‐type aftershock sequence aftershock hazard. The daily probability of limit state first‐excursion is finally calculated as a weighted combination of the sequence of limit state probabilities conditioned on the number of aftershocks. As a numerical example, daily aftershock risk is calculated for the L'Aquila 2009 aftershock sequence (central Italy). A representative three‐story reinforced concrete frame with infill panels, which has cyclic strength and stiffness degradation, is used in order to evaluate the progressive damage. It is observed that the proposed framework leads to a sound forecasting of limit state first‐excursion in the structure for two limit states of significant damage and near collapse. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

利用绕射信息在裂缝型地层中进行钻前风险评估

钻前风险评估是智能导钻过程中减少井漏井塌等事故的关键环节.在裂缝型地层中, 特别是在深层、超深层地区, 井筒的承压能力极易受到地层中天然裂缝带的影响, 较易出现井漏、井塌等钻井事故, 亟需在钻进前进行基于裂缝带的风险评估.绕射波由于对裂缝等小地质体较为敏感, 是描述天然裂缝带的有效手段, 但是目前的绕射波成像结果通常信噪比不高, 较难直接应用于钻前风险评估.论文通过分析绕射波均方根振幅能量, 发展适用于绕射波成像的构造平滑技术, 提出了基于绕射波信息的天然裂缝带描述方法, 提高了数据信噪比, 更好地描述了天然裂缝带的空间分布.该方法应用于顺北地区某钻井的深部裂缝型地层中, 所得的目标层段预测结果与实钻的漏失、卡钻井段具有较好的对应关系, 验证了方法有效性.

     

K-Ar geochronology of the Limestone Caribbees and Martinique,Lesser Antilles,West Indies

Twenty-seven K-Ar ages have been measured on igneous rocks from islands of the Limestone Caribbees (St. Martin, St. Bartholomew, Antigua, and Grande Terre, Guadeloupe) and Martinique in the Lesser Antilles arc. Earlier paleontological data indicated that rocks on several of these islands are Eocene in age and among the oldest known in the arc.The oldest igneous activity on the islands studied is 35–40 m.y. Bifurcation of the Lesser Antilles arc north of Guadeloupe took place between 7 and 20 m.y. ago. A distinct physical overlap of older and younger volcanic arcs exists on Martinique.Our results do not support previous suggestions that the pre-Tertiary basement of the Greater Antilles extends through the Limestone Caribbees to the anomalously old, Jurassic-Cretaceous, igneous rocks of La Desirade.     

Pushover-based seismic risk assessment and loss estimation of masonry buildings

A pushover-based seismic risk assessment and loss estimation methodology for masonry buildings is introduced. It enables estimation of loss by various performance measures such as the probability of exceeding a designated economic loss, the expected annual loss, and the expected loss given a seismic intensity. The methodology enables the estimation of the economic loss directly from the results of structural analysis, which combines pushover analysis and incremental dynamic analysis of an equivalent SDOF model. The use of the methodology is demonstrated by means of two variants of a three-storey masonry building both of which have the same geometry, but they are built, respectively, from hollow clay masonry (model H) and solid brick masonry (model S). The probability of collapse given the selected design earthquake corresponding to a return period of 475 years was found to be negligible for model H, which indicates the proper behaviour of such a structure when designed according to the current building codes. However, the corresponding probability of collapse of model S was very high (46%). The expected total loss given the design earthquake was estimated to amount to 28 000 € and 290 000 €, respectively, for models H and S. The expected annual loss per 100 m² of gross floor area was estimated to amount to 75 € and 191 €, respectively, for models H and S. For the presented examples, it was also observed that nonstructural elements contributed more than 50% of the total loss.     

A GIS approach to seismic risk assessment with an application to mining-related seismicity in Johannesburg,South Africa

The majority of seismic activity in South Africa is related to extensive mining operations, usually in close proximity to densely populated areas where a relatively weak seismic event could cause damage. Despite a significant decrease in mining operations in the Witwatersrand area, the number of seismic events appears to be increasing and is attributed to the acid mine drainage problem. The increased seismicity is raising concern amongst disaster management centres and in the insurance industry. A better understanding is required of the vulnerability and the size of the potential loss of people and infrastructure in densely populated Johannesburg and its surrounding areas. Results of a deterministic seismic risk, vulnerability, and loss assessment are presented by making use of a geographic information system (GIS). The results illustrate the benefits of using GIS and contribute to a better understanding of the risk, which can assist in improving disaster preparedness.     

Lithic breccias in pyroclastic flow deposits on St. Kitts,West Indies

Lithic-rich breccias are described from within a sequence of young (2000–3000 yrs B.P.) scoria and ash flow deposits erupted from Mount Misery and an older pumice and ash flow deposit (ignimbrite) on St. Kitts. Cross sections constructed through pyroclastic flow fans in well-exposed sea cliffs 4–6 km from the vent show that the lithic breccias are lensoid deposits which seem to occur as channel-shaped accumulations (up to > 20 m thick and > 150 m wide) within flow units. The best-developed example infills a deeply incised channel cut into older flow units. The coarsest lithic breccias are clast supported and fines depleted and grade laterally and vertically through finer-grained, matrix-supported breccias into scoria and ash flow deposits. Coarse scoria-concentration zones mainly occur at the tops of scoria and ash flow units but also at the bases, and gas-segregation pipes are common. The lithic breccias are a type of body-concentration deposit as they pass laterally into normal scoria and ash flow deposits and, where best developed, clearly occur above a reversely graded basal shear zone or layer. Grain-size studies indicate the lithic breccias and parent flows are strongly fines depleted and were highly fluidized. We suggest this may be a feature of many Lesser Antillean pyroclastic flows because of increased turbulence-induced fluidization resulting from a high degree of surface roughness caused by the steep (up to 40 °) irregular slopes, densely vegetated sinuous gullies of the tropical volcanoes, and ingestion and ignition of large amounts of lush vegetation. Accumulation of batches of lithics concentrated in the highly fluidized flows began at the break in slope where flows moved from gullies across hydraulic jumps onto the outer coastal flanks. The accumulations of breccias continued to move and be channelled down the central parts of the flows. Initially, on crossing onto the lower slopes, some of these flows seem to have had very powerfully erosive, nondepositional heads, and in the extreme example a deep channel as long as 1–2 km may have cut through underlying flow units at least as far as the present coastline. Much of the overriding remainder of the flow then drained away laterally. Thin, fine-grained ash flow deposits may form a marginal overbank facies to the pyroclastic flow fans.     

On the treatment of uncertainty in seismic vulnerability and portfolio risk assessment

In a related study developed by the authors, building fragility is represented by intensity‐specific distributions of damage exceedance probability of various damage states. The contribution of the latter has been demonstrated in the context of loss estimation of building portfolios, where it is shown that the proposed concept of conditional fragility functions provides the link between seismic intensity and the uncertainty in damage exceedance probabilities. In the present study, this methodology is extended to the definition of building vulnerability, whereby vulnerability functions are characterized by hazard‐consistent distributions of damage ratio per level of primary seismic intensity parameter—Sa(T₁). The latter is further included in a loss assessment framework, in which the impact of variability and spatial correlation of damage ratio in the probabilistic evaluation of seismic loss is accounted for, using test‐bed portfolios of 2, 5, and 8‐story precode reinforced concrete buildings located in the district of Lisbon, Portugal. This methodology is evaluated in comparison with current state‐of‐the‐art methods of vulnerability and loss calculation, highlighting the discrepancies that can arise in loss estimates when the variability and spatial distributions of damage ratio, influenced by ground motion properties other than the considered primary intensity measure, are not taken into account.     

A practical approach for seismic risk assessment of underground structures: A case study of Iranian subway tunnels

Active geological and young faulted zones have made Iran’s territory one of the most seismological active areas in the world according to recent historical earthquakes. Some of the deadliest earthquakes such as Gilan 1990 and Kermanshah 2018 caused tens of thousands fatalities. If such violent earthquakes affect strategical structures of a country, indirect losses would be more concerning than direct losses. Nowadays there is no doubt about the vital role of tunnels and underground structures in urban areas. These facilities serve as nonstop functional structures for human transportation, water and sewage systems and underground pedestrian ways. Any external hazard subjected to underground spaces, such as earthquake could directly affect passenger’s lives and significantly decrease whole system reliability of public transportation. Commonly two earthquake levels of intensities, Maximum Design Earthquake (MDE) and Operating Design Earthquake (ODE) were used in seismic design of underground structures. However, uncertain nature of earthquakes in terms of frequency content, duration of strong ground motion, and level of intensity indicate that only the two levels of earthquake (ODE and MDE) cannot cover the all range of possible seismic responses of structures during a probable earthquake. It is important to evaluate the behavior of tunnel under a wide range of earthquake intensities. For this purpose, a practical risk-based approach which is obtained using the total probability rule was used. This study illustrates a framework for evaluation seismic stability of tunnels. Urban railway tunnels of Tehran, Shiraz, Ahwaz, Mashhad, Isfahan and Tabriz were considered as study cases. Nominal value of seismic risk for three main damage states, including minor, moderate and major were calculated.     

The composition and differentiation of the volcanic rocks of Carriacou,grenadines, West Indies

Tertiary volcanic rocks of Carriacou occupy two-thirds of the island. The volcanics include volcaniclastics, lava flows and dome lavas and range in composition from basalts to andesites. Carriacou basalts fall into two petrographic types (a) clinopyroxene-plagioclase-phyric basalts and (b) olivine microphyric basalts; the latter having higher MgO and lower Al₂O₃ than the clinopyroxene basalts. Both types are unusually rich in mafic minerals compared with Lesser Antilles basalts in general, although similar types have been reported from the nearby island of Grenada. The potash to silica ratios are relatively high and confirm the similarity between Carriacou and Grenada basalts and the differences between these basalts and basalts from other islands of the Lesser Antilles. The basaltic andesites and andesites from Carriacou correspond closely in mineralogical and chemical composition with typical andesites found elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles. The geochemistry of the volcanics shows that the olivine microphyric basalts display tholeiitic affinities whereas the clinopyroxeneplagioclase-phyric basalt, basaltic andesites and andesites are calcalkaline. The compositional gradation in both the geochemistry and mineralogy of these volcanics suggests that fractional crystallization played an important role in the derivation of the various magma.