基于重心-GTWR模型的京津冀城市群研究

Research into urban expansion patterns and their driving forces is of great significance for urban agglomeration development planning and decision-making.In this paper,we reveal the multi-dimensional characteristics of urban expansion patterns,based on the intensity index of the urban expansion,the differentiation index of the urban expansion,the fractal dimension index,the land urbanization rate,and the center of gravity model,by taking the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(Jing-Jin-Ji)urban agglomeration as an example.We then build the center of gravity-geographically and temporally weighted regression(GTWR)model by coupling the center of gravity model with the GTWR model.Through the analysis of the temporal and spatial patterns and by using the center of gravity-GTWR model,we analyze the driving forces of the urban land expansion and summarize the dominant development modes and core driving forces of the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration.The results show that:1)Between 1990 and 2015,the expansion intensity of the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration showed a down-up-down trend,and the peak period was in 2005-2010.Before 2005,high-speed development took place in Beijing,Tianjin,Baoding,and Langfang;after 2005,rapid development was seen in Xingtai and Handan.2)Although the barycenter of cities in the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration has shown a divergent trend,the local interaction between cities has been enhanced,and the driving forces of urban land expansion have shown a characteristic of spatial spillover.3)The spatial development mode of the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration has changed from a dual-core development mode to a multi-core development mode,which is made up of three functional cores:the transportation core in the northern part,the economic development core in the central part,and the investment core in the southern part.The synergistic development between each functional core has led to the multi-core development mode.4)The center of gravity-GTWR model combines the analysis of spatial and temporal nonstationarity with urban spatial interaction,and analyzes the urban land expansion as a space-time dynamic system.The results of this study show that the model is a feasible approach in the analysis of the driving forces of urban land expansion.     

区域尺度城市增长时空动态模型及其在京津唐都市圈应用

Dynamic urban expansion simulation at regional scale is one of the important re-search methodologies in Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) and global environmental change influenced by urbanization.However,previous studies indicate that the single urban expan-sion simulation for future scenarios at local scale cannot meet the requirements for charac-terizing and interpreting the interactive mechanisms of regional urbanization and global en-vironmental change.This study constructed a regional Dynamic Urban Expansion Model (Reg-DUEM) suitable for different scenarios by integrating the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Cellular Automaton (CA) model.Firstly we analyzed the temporal and spatial character-istics of urban expansion and acquired a prior knowledge rules using land use/cover change datasets of Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan metropolitan area.The future urban expansion under different scenarios is then simulated based on a baseline model,economic models,policy models and the structural adjustment model.The results indicate that Reg-DUEM has good reliability for a non-linear expansion simulation at regional scale influenced by macro-policies.The simulating results show that future urban expansion patterns from different scenarios of the metropolitan area have the tremendous spatio-temporal differences.Future urban ex-pansion will shift quickly from Beijing metropolis to the periphery of Tianjin and Tangshan city along coastal belt.     

厦门岛城市空间扩张特征及其影响因素

Most of the world’s cities are concentrated in coastal areas. As a special geographical component of the coastal system, island urban spatial expansion is the outcome of interactions between city development and the physical environment. This paper takes Xiamen Island, located in Southeastern China, as an example to analyze island urban spatial expansion and its determinants by combining an analysis of the literature on urban development policies, urban overall plans, population growth and industrial development, with geographical information analysis using historical maps and remote sensing photographs. Firstly, we reviewed the history of the Xiamen City development during the last 100 years, which can be divided into four periods: the embryonic modern city and early development from 1908 to 1949; administrative boundary expansion and infrastructure development from 1950 to 1979; special economic zone construction and rapid urbanization from 1980 to 2003; and Bay City construction since 2003. The dynamic changes to the coastline, island shape, built-up area, transportation, administrative division, and major land use type conversion which occurred during approximately the past 100 years were analyzed and the characteristics of the island urban spatial expansion were concluded: early expansion from a central point, followed by expansion along a section of coastline, and expansion from the coastline inland. Secondly, we discussed the potential determinants of island urban spatial expansion including administrative division adjustment, urban master planning revision, industrial development, topographical factors, coastal area reclamation, transportation expansion, and population growth. Finally, the effects of each potential determinant on island urban spatial expansion were concluded. Island urban spatial expansion is the result of a synthesis of natural and socio-economic factors which are not independent but interacting. Built-up area expansion is the major driver of island land cover and land use changes. By this paper, we hope to provide a scientific reference contributing to the rational understanding of island and coastal sustainable urbanization in China, and the world beyond.     

1990-2015年中国山地城市的扩张特点及其驱动机制研究（英文）

Land expansion of mountain cities in China is not systematically studied yet.This study identified 55 major mountain cities at and above prefecture level,and analyzed the land expansion characteristics and driving forces,based on visually interpreted data from TM images in 1990,2000,2010 and 2015.From 1990 to 2015,total built-up land area of the mountain cities increased by 3.87 times,5.56%per year.The urban land growth was apparently accelerated after 2000,from 4.35%per year during 1990–2000 increased to 6.47%during 2000–2010 and 6.2%during 2010–2015.Compared to the urban population growth,the urban land expansion rate was 44% higher.As a result,the urban land area per capita increased,but it was still within the government control target,and also was much lower than the average of all cities in China.Urban development policy,changes to administrative divisions,GDP and population growth,and road construction were identified as the major driving forces of land expansion.Terrain conditions were not found a relevance to the urban land expansion rate during 1990–2015,but had a significant impact on the layout and shape,and also probably on the urban land efficiency.     

北京城市空间发展和土地利用—伦敦经验启示

Beijing is facing a huge challenge to manage the growth of its built-up area whilst also retaining both productive arable land and land for conservation purposes in order to simultaneously realize the three aims of economic development,protecting arable land and generating environmental improvements. Meanwhile,London,as a world city with more than 200 years of industrialization and urbanization,has accumulated rich theoretical and practical experiences for land use planning in a major urban area,such as the creation of Garden Cities,a designated Green Belt and New Towns. This paper firstly analyzes the main characteristics of the spatial distribution of the built-up area,arable land and conservation land in Beijing. Then,some of the key aspects of urban fringe planning in the London region are examined. Lastly,several implications from the experience of London are provided with respect to land-use planning for Beijing,concentrating on a re-appraisal of land-use functions around Beijing,measures to improve the green belt,the development of small towns to house rural-urban migrants and urban overspill,and effective implementation of land-use planning.     

中国城市间科学合作网络空间的层级性、集聚性与差异性分析（英文）

The Chinese urban system is currently experiencing a fundamental shift, as it moves from a size-based hierarchy to a network-based system. Contemporary studies of city networks have tended to focus on economic interactions without paying sufficient attention to the issue of knowledge flow. Using data on co-authored papers obtained from China Academic Journal Network Publishing Database(CAJNPD) during 2014–2016, this study explores several features of the scientific collaboration network between Chinese mainland cities. The study concludes that:(1) the spatial organization of scientific cooperation amongst Chinese cities is shifting from a jurisdiction-based hierarchical system to a networked system; and(2) several highly intra-connected city regions were found to exist in the network of knowledge, and such regions had more average internal linkages(14.21) than external linkages(8.69), and higher average internal linkage degrees(14.43) than external linkage degrees(10.43); and(3) differences existed in terms of inter-region connectivity between the Western, Eastern, and Central China regional networks(the average INCD of the three regional networks were 109.65, 95.81, and 71.88). We suggest that China should engage in the development of regional and sub-regional scientific centers to achieve the goal of building an innovative country. Whilst findings reveal a high degree of concentration in those networks – a characteristic which reflects the hierarchical nature of China's urban economic structure – the actual spatial distribution of city networks of knowledge flow was found to be different from that of city networks based on economic outputs or population.     

长江三角洲城市带扩展对区域温度变化的影响

Based on non-radiance-calibrated DMSP/OLS nighttime light imagery from 1992 to 2003, urban land area statistical data, meteorological data and land surface temperature data retrieved by MODIS and NOAA/AVHRR data, the influence of urbanization on regional cli- matic trend of temperature in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) was analyzed. Conclusions are as follows: 1) There is a significant urbanization process from 1992 to 2003 in the YRD. Four city clusters of Nanjing–Zhenjiang–Yangzhou, Suzhou–Wuxi–Changzhou, Shanghai and Hangzhou Bay form a zigzag city belt. The increase rate of annual mean air temperature in city-belt is 0.28–0.44℃/10a from 1991 to 2005, which is far larger than that of non-city-belt. 2) The urban heat island (UHI) effect on regional mean air temperature in different seasons is summer>autumn>spring>winter. 3) The UHI intensity and the urban total population logarithm are creditably correlated. 4) The UHI effect made the regional annual mean air temperature increased 0.072℃ from 1961 to 2005, of which 0.047℃ from 1991 to 2005, and the annual maximum air temperature increased 0.162℃, of which 0.083℃ from 1991 to 2005. All these indicating that the urban expansion in the YRD from 1991 to 2005 may be regarded as a serious climate signal.     

北京城市蔓延的测度与分析

Concerning about the rapid urban growth in recent China, this study takes Beijing as a case and puts forward that urban sprawl can be measured from spatial configuration, urban growth efficiency and external impacts, and then develops a geo-spatial indices system for measuring sprawl, a total of 13 indicators. In order to calculate these indices, different sources data are selected, including land use maps, former land use planning, land price and floor-area-ratio samples, digitized map of the highways and city centers, population and GDP statistical data, etc. Various GIS spatial analysis methods are used to spatialize these indices into 100m×100m cells. Besides, an integrated urban sprawl index is calculated by weight sum of these 13 indices. The application result indicates that geo-spatial indices system can capture most of the typical features and interior differentia of urban sprawl. Construction land in Beijing has kept fast growing with large amount, low efficiency and disordered spatial configuration, indicating a typical sprawling tendency. The following specific sprawl features are identified by each indicator: (1) typical spatial configuration of sprawling: obvious fragmentation and irregularity of landscape due to unsuccessful enforcement of land use planning, unadvisable pattern of typical discontinuous development, strip development and leapfrog development; (2) low efficiency of sprawl: low development density, low population density and economic output in newly developed area; and (3) negative impacts on agriculture, environment and city life. According to the integrated sprawl index, the sprawling amount in the northern part is larger than that in the southern, but the sprawling extent is in converse case; most sprawling area include the marginal area of the near suburbs and the area between highways, etc. Four sprawling patterns are identified: randomly expansion at urban fringe, strip development along or between highways, scattered development of industrial land, leapfrog development of urban residence and industrial area.     

Impact of urban expansion on regional tempera-ture change in the Yangtze River Delta

Based on non-radiance-calibrated DMSP/OLS nighttime light imagery from 1992 to 2003, urban land area statistical data, meteorological data and land surface temperature data retrieved by MODIS and NOAA/AVHRR data, the influence of urbanization on regional cli-matic trend of temperature in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) was analyzed. Conclusions are as follows: 1) There is a significant urbanization process from 1992 to 2003 in the YRD. Four city clusters of Nanjing–Zhenjiang–Yangzhou, Suzhou–Wuxi–Changzhou, Shanghai and Hangzhou Bay form a zigzag city belt. The increase rate of annual mean air temperature in city-belt is 0.28–0.44℃/10a from 1991 to 2005, which is far larger than that of non-city-belt. 2) The urban heat island (UHI) effect on regional mean air temperature in different seasons is summer>autumn>spring>winter. 3) The UHI intensity and the urban total population logarithm are creditably correlated. 4) The UHI effect made the regional annual mean air temperature increased 0.072℃ from 1961 to 2005, of which 0.047℃ from 1991 to 2005, and the annual maximum air temperature increased 0.162℃, of which 0.083℃ from 1991 to 2005. All these indicating that the urban expansion in the YRD from 1991 to 2005 may be regarded as a serious climate signal.     

Land cover changes in the rural-urban interaction of Xi＇an region using Landsat TM/ETM data

Landsat ETM/TM data and an artificial neural network （ANN） were applied to analyse the expansion of the city of Xi＇an and land use/cover change of its surrounding area between 2000 and 2003. Supervised classification and normalized difference barren index （NDBI） were used respectively to retrieve its urban boundary. Results showed that the urban area increased by an annual rate of 12.3%, with area expansion from 253.37 km^2 in 2000 to 358.60 km^2 in 2003. Large areas of farmland in the north and southwest were converted into urban construction land. The land use/cover changes of Xi＇an were mainly caused by fast development of urban economy, population immigration from countryside, great development of infrastructure such as transportation, and huge demands for urban market. In addition, affected by the government policy of “returning farmland to woodland”, some farmland was converted into economic woodland, such as Chinese goosebeerv garden, vineyard etc.     

The influencing factors of urban land expansion in Changsha

This research systematically analyses land-use map of Changsha city in different periods of time. The spatial form and structural evolution was analysed by studying indices such as city land-use structure proportion, expansion intensity, economic flexibility, population flexibility, changing compactness index and so on. The dynamic mechanism of urban land expansion has been discussed by integrating the regional social economy development situation and many aspects such as the physiographical surrounding, population and eco-nomic development, traffic infrastructure, planning and regional development tactic and system innovation. The research indicates that the urban land expansion speed and intensity have steadily increased in Changsha from 1949 to 2004. The expansion form has been from a single external expansion to a combination form of external and internal expansion, from a circular or linear continuous form to a blocky or agglomeration shape. Overall, the urban land expansion of Changsha city is a phasic, diversified and complex process. And no matter what the stage is, it is an organic system containing multiple speed, pattern and shape, which are driven by multiple impetuses. The dominant feature at different stages was highlighted be-cause of the balance and fluctuation between different forces, and the existing urban land border and shape have resulted from the joint efforts of these phasic forces.     

长沙城市土地扩张特征及影响因素

以不同时期长沙市城区土地利用现状图为基础,通过对城市用地结构比例、扩张强度指数、人口弹性指数、经济弹性指数、紧凑度变化指数等指标的具体研究,从时间序列、空间形态、结构演变等方面对长沙市城市土地扩张特征进行了系统分析,并结合区域社会经济发展情况从自然地理环境、人口与经济发展、交通设施建设、规划与区域发展战略引导、体制与制度创新等方面探讨了城市土地扩张的作用机制。研究表明：从1949年到2004年,长沙市城市土地扩张速度和强度逐步上升,整体上呈现出非理性向理性发展的趋势,扩张形态也经历了一个由单一的外部空间扩展向外部空间扩展与内部填充相结合转变,由以圈层状、轴线状为主的连续扩展形态向以斑块状与组团状为主的非连续扩展形态转变的过程,总体而言,长沙市城市土地扩张是一个具有阶段性、多样性和复杂性的过程。无论是哪个阶段,城市土地的扩张均受到多重力量的影响,某一时期的城市土地扩张是多重速度、多重模式以及多重形态的有机叠合体,由于力与力之间的均衡与偏向性差异而导致了不同时期城市土地扩张主导特征的凸现,最后在各阶段性合力的共同作用下,形成了现有城市土地边界和形态。     

长沙市区建设用地扩张的时空特征

以不同时段的遥感影像资料为数据源,借助GIS技术对空间数据的统计及分析功能,提取出6个时期长沙市建成区变化的相关数据信息。在此基础上,利用扩张速度、扩张弹性、分维数、玫瑰图等方法分析长沙市区1986~2004年建设用地扩张的时空特征。结果表明,近20年来,长沙城市建设用地扩张了将近1倍,尤其是2002~2004年,建设用地扩张趋势最为明显。现阶段城市的扩张主要表现为低密度填充式的蔓延,城区扩张方向的主要方位是NW270°~295°和SE165°~180°。建设用地扩张的驱动因素除经济发展及人口增长因素之外,政策也是重要的影响因素,尤其是近年来政策因素的作用更为突出。未来长沙城市的空间发展将是多中心组团式的扩张,城市扩张方向日趋合理化。     

快速城市化阶段济南城市空间扩展及驱动力研究

基于济南市1992年、2000年、2010年、2018年Landsat遥感影像数据,借助ArcGIS、ENVI等图像分析工具,提取济南城市建成区,从扩展速度、强度、分形维数、紧凑度、重心转移等方面探究济南城市空间扩展的时空变化过程、特征,运用地理加权逻辑回归方法对济南城市空间扩展驱动力进行分析。结果表明:①济南城市空间扩展经历"中强低速""高强中速""低强高速"3个阶段,城市形态趋于稳定,城市形状呈现东西向条带状分布格局,紧凑度较差;②1992—2018年济南城市空间向E、NEE、NE方向扩展最为显著,扩展方式以外延扩张与内部填充为主,城市空间分布重心东移态势明显;③济南城市空间扩展受多重驱动因子影响,主驱动因子为距城市建成区距离、距主要公路距离、地区生产总值、城镇化率、人口密度等。     

1979-2014年长沙市城市功能用地扩展与驱动力研究

基于长沙市中心城区1979年、1989年、2003年、2011年、2014年5个年份的土地利用现状图,借助ArcGIS、SPSS分析工具,提取居住、工业、服务三大功能用地,从方向、圈层、强度、用地间转变及轴带趋向对长沙城市功能用地扩展的时空特征及驱动力进行研究。结果表明：① 用地扩展模式以“圈层式、轴带式”为主,并逐渐向“多组团式”过渡,由单一的向外扩展向内部功能间演替和外部扩展相结合转变。整体扩展方向经历了由“东、南、东南-西北、东、东南、北”的变化,但各类用地的扩展方向有所差异;② 从扩展强度看,居住用地远远高于城市总体扩展强度,造成了城市功能空间失衡的现象,服务配套明显滞后,部分分区在扩展过程中,出现了与规划定位严重不符的矛盾;③ 功能用地间的转变主要集中在城市核心区,表现出以核心-外围明显分异的差距。外围片区的功能较为单一,融合度不够,未来应增强配套服务功能。④ 从经济驱动力、政策调控力、生态制约力与吸引力、社会助推力四个方面分析了功能用地扩展时空差异的驱动因素。⑤ 从“问题导向-现象归纳-本质剖析-策略应对”提出了城市功能用地扩展研究的基本研究框架。     

基于重心-GTWR模型的京津冀城市群城镇扩展格局与驱动力多维解析

城镇用地扩展格局及驱动力研究对城市群发展规划与决策具有重要意义。以京津冀地区为例,基于城镇用地扩展强度指数、城镇用地扩展差异指数、分形维数、土地城镇化率和重心转移模型,多维解析了城市群城镇用地扩展格局特征,并耦合重心转移模型和时空地理加权回归（GTWR）模型构建重心-GTWR模型,在对空间格局进行长时间序列多维度指标分析的基础上,运用该模型依序对其特征进行驱动力解读,进而总结凝练京津冀区域发展的主导模式与城市核心驱动力。主要结论为：① 1990-2015年,京津冀城市群城镇用地扩展强度呈现“下降-上升-下降”的趋势,高峰时期在2005-2010年,在2005年之前高速发展城市集中在北京、天津、保定和廊坊,2005年之后集中在邢台和邯郸;② 城市群城镇用地重心虽呈现出发散态势,但城市之间的局部相互作用力逐渐增强,城镇用地扩展驱动力表现出空间溢出特征;③ 京津冀城市群空间发展模式由以北京和天津为中心的双核发展模式向多核发展模式转变,并出现北部资源运输核心、中部经济发展核心和南部投资发展核心三大功能核心组团,城市群趋向于多核功能协同发展模式;④ 重心-GTWR模型结合了时空非平稳性和城市空间相互作用,将城市群城镇用地扩展作为一个时空变化系统进行分析,经验证,该模型在城镇用地扩展格局驱动力分析研究中具有可行性。     

广州市土地利用结构优化配置及其潜力

基于广州市土地利用结构、地区经济、生态与社会特点,结合广州城市总体规划(2010-2020),对广州市域土地利用结构进行生态经济效益-自然生态效益导向的多目标优化配置研究。结果表明：对广州市土地利用数量结构进行调整,一定时间内能够满足地区可持续发展;但是,土地仍然承担着巨大的压力,焦点是建设用地和农用地之间的数量转变,以耕地为主,也包括对未利用土地的利用;土地利用潜力度模型结果显示,通过优化土地利用结构,土地系统的协调度增大而潜力度减小：在生态经济效益目标下,潜力度分别为0.628～0.661,0.372～0.339;在自然生态效益目标下,分别为0.531～0.782,0.469～0.218,表明土地利用系统将趋于更高的协调状态,而其数量结构优化配置的潜力减小,优化各产业部门内部土地资源结构及其空间布局,将是广州市土地资源高效集约利用和进一步挖潜的主导方向。     

群组型港口城市用地时空扩展特征及外部形态演变——以宁波为例

以多时相Landsat MSS、TM和ETM 卫星影像为数据源,提取宁波城市各组团(三江片、镇海片和北仑片) 多时相的用地信息,分析了港口城市用地扩展的时空特征及外部形态演变过程。结果表明: (1) 1979年以来,宁波城市用地面积扩展速度和扩展强度不断提高,但各个组团的表现有较大的差异。(2) 各组团城市用地空间结构分维数的波动与城市用地的空间扩展模式表现出明显的相关性。(3) 3个组团的城市用地扩展强度指数峰区相对城市质心有不断外移趋势,但扩展强度指数峰值的变化在各个片区有一定差异。(4) 3个组团城市用地外部形态演变在不同方向上的差异性与宁波港口迁移及港口经济的发展密切相关。(5) 随着宁波港口从内河港向河口港、海岸港的迁移,宁波城市外部形态演变经历块状单一集中型内河港城市、 "一城一镇"飞地式群组河口港城市、"一城二镇" 飞地式群组海港城市和"一城多镇"不连续带状群组海港城市发展阶段,最后将形成"T"型带状群组现代化国际港口城市。     

长沙市中心城区居住用地扩张特征及影响因素研究

为探讨长沙市中心城区居住用地扩张特征及影响因素,对长沙市居住用地的合理布局提供借鉴。以1979年、1990年、2003年及2010年城市总体规划为基础,借助不同年份的统计年鉴,采用居住用地扩张速度、居住用地扩张弹性系数及不同时期的居住用地的叠加,对长沙市中心城区居住用地的扩展特征与影响因素进行了系统分析。结果表明：（1）从1949年到2010年长沙市中心城区居住用地增加了7582．52×10^4m^2,年均增长速度为6．4％。（2）1979～1990年居住用地在旧城区的基础上往东发展,扩张半径较小;1990-2003年延续1979～1990年扩张方式之外,出现了一些类似于“飞地”性质的居住用地;2003—2010年居住用地扩张速度加大,湘江西部、城市南部及北部居住用地的面积明显加大。     

广州市花都区建设用地扩展的时空特征及驱动因素分析

应用RS/GIS相结合的方法,获取1990-2008年间5期的TM影像,从而获取相应时间的土地利用数据.通过对扩展速度与强度、扩展弹性、空间自相关等的分析,总结广州市花都区建设用地扩展特征,从不同方面探讨建设用地扩展的驱动力.结果表明:研究区域建设用地总体快速增长,各阶段增长速度、强度及弹性不同,其中在2000-2005年建设用地扩展速度最快,年平均达23.39％,而2005-2008年建设用地扩展强度最大,扩展方向以向东、向北为主;经济发展、交通建设、城市规划、人口扩散和自然地理环境是花都区建设用地扩展