城市土地利用变化中邻域相互作用的特征——日本三大都市圈的比较研究

Local spatial interaction between neighborhood land-use categories (i.e. neighborhood interaction) is an important factor which affects urban land-use change patterns. Therefore,it is a key component in cellular automata (CA)-based urban geosimulation models towards the simulation and forecast of urban land-use changes. Purpose of this paper is to interpret the similarities and differences of the characteristics of neighborhood interaction in urban land-use changes of different metropolitan areas in Japan for providing empirical materials to understand the mechanism of urban land-use changes and construct urban geosimulation models. Characteristics of neighborhood interaction in urban land-use changes of three metropolitan areas in Japan,i.e. Tokyo,Osaka,and Nagoya,were compared using such aids as the neighborhood interaction model and similarity measure function. As a result,urban land-use in the three metropolitan areas was found to have had similar structure and patterns during the study period. Characteristics of neighborhood interaction in urban land-use changes are quite different from land-use categories,meaning that the mechanism of urban land-use changes comparatively differs among land-use categories. Characteristics of neighborhood interaction reveal the effect of spatial autocorrelation in the spatial process of urban land-use changes in the three metropolitan areas,which correspond with the characteristics of agglomeration of urban land-use allocation in Japan. Neighborhood interaction amidst urban land-use changes between the three metropolitan areas generally showed similar characteristics. The regressed neighborhood interaction coefficients in the models may represent the general characteristics of neighborhood effect on urban land-use changes in the cities of Japan. The results provide very significant materials for exploring the mechanism of urban land-use changes and the construction of universal urban geosimulation models which may be applied to any city in Japan.     

基于DEA和Malmquist指数模型的中国资源型城市效率及其变化(英文)

Employing DEA model and Malmquist productivity index, this paper probes into the urban efficiencies of 24 typical resources-based cities in China and their changes from 2000 to 2008. The research finds that the overall efficiencies of the resources-based cities are just at a general level, and only a few of them reach the optimal level. The scale efficiency is the major determining factor of the achievement of overall efficiency, the effect of which, never-theless, is reducing. From the perspective of classification characteristics, the re-sources-based cities in northeastern region have been in the front rank in terms of overall efficiency, pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency. There is a certain positive correlation between urban population scale and urban efficiency. The analysis of urban efficiency changes shows that the changes in overall efficiency of resources-based cities from 2000 to 2008 had a weak improving tendency. Both the technical change index and productivity change index decreased, indicating that the urban efficiency did not improve during this pe-riod, and the tendency of technical recession and productivity decline was obvious. In terms of the classification of urban efficiency changes, the urban overall efficiency improved in each of the four regions from 2000 to 2008, among which western region witnessed the greatest increase. Cities with different resource types have improved their urban overall efficiencies except steel-based cities. The urban overall efficiency increased in resources-based cities of different scales, with greater improvement in small and medium-sized cities than in big cities.     

长沙市人居环境与经济协调发展的不确定性评价(英文)

The coordinated development of human settlement environment and economy is of vital significance to urban sustainable development and urban ecosystem health. Urban human settlement and economic systems exist in urban ecosystems, which are a structural complexity. Therefore the research is being challenged by some uncertain factors between human settlements and economic systems. However most of the researches were focused on its determinate objective aspects and qualitative analyses while less concern on the quantitative evaluation of coordinated development of urban human settlement environment and economy, especially little on its uncertain aspect. At present, the urgent task is to study the coordinated development of urban settlement environment and economy in terms of the effect of uncertainty. This study analyzed the uncertain characteristics, which would be confronted at different stages, such as confirming the index categories, their bound values, and their construction rate, etc. According to the actual urban conditions, many construction principles based on uncertainties are put forward and an indicating system for human settlement and economic evaluation is established. Moreover, the application of fuzzy mathematics presents a new method and a calculation model for the comprehensive assessment of the coordinated development of urban human settlement environment and economy. The application of the method and model in Changsha city of China showed that the assessment results can reflect not only the overall coordination degree of the city, but also the mode of interactive mechanism between urban economic system and human settlement environment.     

2000–2050年东北三省土地利用时空格局变化过程模拟及其生态服务影响研究（英文）

Land use and its dynamics have attracted considerable scientific attention for their significant ecological and socioeconomic implications.Many studies have investigated the past changes in land use,but efforts exploring the potential changes in land use and implications under future scenarios are still lacking.Here we simulate the future land use changes and their impacts on ecosystem services in Northeast China(NEC) over the period of 2000–2050 using the CLUE–S(Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) model under the scenarios of ecological security(ESS),food security(FSS) and comprehensive development(CDS).The model was validated against remote sensing data in 2005.Overall,the accuracy of the CLUE–S model was evaluated at 82.5%.Obtained results show that future cropland changes mainly occur in the Songnen Plain and the Liaohe Plain,forest and grassland changes are concentrated in the southern Lesser Khingan Mountains and the western Changbai Mountains,while the Sanjiang Plain will witness major changes of the wetlands.Our results also show that even though CDS is defined based on the goals of the regional development plan,the ecological service value(ESV) under CDS is RMB 2656.18 billion in 2050.The ESV of CDS is lower compared with the other scenarios.Thus,CDS is not an optimum scenario for eco-environmental protection,especially for the wetlands,which should be given higher priority for future development.The issue of coordination is also critical in future development.The results can help to assist structural adjustments for agriculture and to guide policy interventions in NEC.     

北京城市蔓延的测度与分析

Concerning about the rapid urban growth in recent China, this study takes Beijing as a case and puts forward that urban sprawl can be measured from spatial configuration, urban growth efficiency and external impacts, and then develops a geo-spatial indices system for measuring sprawl, a total of 13 indicators. In order to calculate these indices, different sources data are selected, including land use maps, former land use planning, land price and floor-area-ratio samples, digitized map of the highways and city centers, population and GDP statistical data, etc. Various GIS spatial analysis methods are used to spatialize these indices into 100m×100m cells. Besides, an integrated urban sprawl index is calculated by weight sum of these 13 indices. The application result indicates that geo-spatial indices system can capture most of the typical features and interior differentia of urban sprawl. Construction land in Beijing has kept fast growing with large amount, low efficiency and disordered spatial configuration, indicating a typical sprawling tendency. The following specific sprawl features are identified by each indicator: (1) typical spatial configuration of sprawling: obvious fragmentation and irregularity of landscape due to unsuccessful enforcement of land use planning, unadvisable pattern of typical discontinuous development, strip development and leapfrog development; (2) low efficiency of sprawl: low development density, low population density and economic output in newly developed area; and (3) negative impacts on agriculture, environment and city life. According to the integrated sprawl index, the sprawling amount in the northern part is larger than that in the southern, but the sprawling extent is in converse case; most sprawling area include the marginal area of the near suburbs and the area between highways, etc. Four sprawling patterns are identified: randomly expansion at urban fringe, strip development along or between highways, scattered development of industrial land, leapfrog development of urban residence and industrial area.     

城市土地利用——交通集成模型的构建与应用（英文）

China is now experiencing rapid urbanization. Powerful tools are required to assess its urban spatial policies before implemented toward a more competitive and sustainable development paradigm. This study develops a Land Use Transport Interaction(LUTI) model to evaluate the impacts of urban land-use policies on urban spatial development. The model consists of four sub-models, i.e., transport, residential location, employment location and real estate rent sub-models. It is then applied to Beijing metropolitan area to forecast the urban activity evolution trend based on the land-use policies between 2009 and 2013. The modeling results show that more and more residents and enterprises in the city choose to agglomerate on outskirts, and new centers gradually emerge to share the services originally delivered by central Beijing. The general trend verifies the objectives of the government plan to develop more sub-centers around Beijing. The proposed activity-based model provides a distinct tool for the urban spatial policy makers in China. Further research is also discussed at the end.     

Exploitation of mineral resource and its influence on regional development and urban evolution in Xinjiang,China

The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between mineral resources exploitation and economic and urban development in Xinjiang. The article summarizes the mineral resource exploitation development of Xinjiang especially over the last 50 years, and investigates energy industries and their driving forces, directions, and economic impact on the oasis urban system evolution in Xinjiang. Methods like correlation analysis, location quotient and elastic coefficient are employed in the presentation and discussion, and also field reconnaissance surveys, interviews and secondary sources are used. The result shows Xinjiang＇s economic growth is promoted by the contributions of the increasing mineral resource industry which promotes economic development by accelerating infrastructure construction, developing industry and raising revenue and fixed investment. Mineral exploitation in recent years had profound impacts on urban development as a growth engine. The evolution of urban system has a close relationship with resource exploitation, and statistical results provide strong evidence to support the argument that mineral resource exploitation has promoted the growth of built-up areas and its expansion patterns in Xinjiang, especially regions along the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains.     

Effects of urbanization on daily temperature extremes in North China简

The regional changes of daily temperature extremes in North China caused by ur- banization are studied further from observed facts and model estimates on the basis of ho- mogenized daily series of maximum and minimum temperature observations from 268 mete- orological stations, NCEP/DOE AMIP- Ⅱ reanalysis data （R-2）, and the data of simulations by regional climate model （RegCM3）. The observed facts of regional warming on long time scales are obtained by analyzing the indices of temperature extremes during two time periods of 1961-2010 and 1951-2010. For urbanization effect, the contributions to decreases in an- nual and winter diurnal temperature range （DTR） are 56.0% and 52.9%, respectively, and increases in the lowest minimum temperature （TNn） are 35.7% and 26.2% by comparison of urban and rural observations. Obtained by R-2 data with observations for contrast, on the other hand, increase in the number of annual warm nights （TN90p） contributed by urbaniza- tion is 60.9%. And observed facts of regional warming in daily temperature extremes are also reflected in the simulations, but what difference is urbanization progress at rural areas in North China would be prominent in the next few years relative to urban areas to some extent from model estimates.     

城市发展对中国华北区域极端温度事件的影响(英文)

The regional changes of daily temperature extremes in North China caused by urbanization are studied further from observed facts and model estimates on the basis of homogenized daily series of maximum and minimum temperature observations from 268 meteorological stations, NCEP/DOE AMIP-Ⅱ reanalysis data(R-2), and the data of simulations by regional climate model(RegCM3). The observed facts of regional warming on long time scales are obtained by analyzing the indices of temperature extremes during two time periods of 1961–2010 and 1951–2010. For urbanization effect, the contributions to decreases in annual and winter diurnal temperature range(DTR) are 56.0% and 52.9%, respectively, and increases in the lowest minimum temperature(TNn) are 35.7% and 26.2% by comparison of urban and rural observations. Obtained by R-2 data with observations for contrast, on the other hand, increase in the number of annual warm nights(TN90p) contributed by urbanization is 60.9%. And observed facts of regional warming in daily temperature extremes are also reflected in the simulations, but what difference is urbanization progress at rural areas in North China would be prominent in the next few years relative to urban areas to some extent from model estimates.     

1990-2015年中国山地城市的扩张特点及其驱动机制研究（英文）

Land expansion of mountain cities in China is not systematically studied yet.This study identified 55 major mountain cities at and above prefecture level,and analyzed the land expansion characteristics and driving forces,based on visually interpreted data from TM images in 1990,2000,2010 and 2015.From 1990 to 2015,total built-up land area of the mountain cities increased by 3.87 times,5.56%per year.The urban land growth was apparently accelerated after 2000,from 4.35%per year during 1990–2000 increased to 6.47%during 2000–2010 and 6.2%during 2010–2015.Compared to the urban population growth,the urban land expansion rate was 44% higher.As a result,the urban land area per capita increased,but it was still within the government control target,and also was much lower than the average of all cities in China.Urban development policy,changes to administrative divisions,GDP and population growth,and road construction were identified as the major driving forces of land expansion.Terrain conditions were not found a relevance to the urban land expansion rate during 1990–2015,but had a significant impact on the layout and shape,and also probably on the urban land efficiency.     

Spatial-temporal changes of Tianjin urban spatial morphology from 1978 to 2004

Taken fractal dimension, compact ratio, urban centroid and urban principal axis as the urban spatial characteristic indices, Tianjin city’s urban area is investigated in the last 26 years in a quantitative perspective, and its traits and changes during different periods are also analyzed. It is clear that these indices can not only scientifically and explicitly assess the urban morphology, urban direction and its changes and trends, but also uncover long-term effects of economy and urban planning on urban morphology.     

基于景观生态学和马尔可夫模型的日本北九州土地利用分析

Based on four phases of TM images acquired in 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005, this paper took Kitakyushu in Japan as a case study to analyze spatial change of land use landscape and corresponding effects on environmental issues guided by landscape ecology theory in virtue of combining technology of Remote Sensing with GIS. Firstly, land use types were divided into 6 classes （farmland, mountain, forestland, water body, urban land and unused land） according to national classification standard of land use, comprehensible ability of TM image and purpose of this study. Secondly, following the theory of landscape ecology analysis, 11 typical landscape indices were abstracted to evaluate the environmental effects and spatial feature changes of land use. Research results indicated that land use has grown more and more diversified and unbalanced, human activities have disturbed the landscape more seriously. Finally, transfer matrix of Markov was applied to forecast change process of land use in the future different periods, and then potential land use changes were also simulated from 2010 to 2050. Results showed that conversion tendency for all types of land use in Kitakyushu into urban construction land were enhanced. The study was anticipated to help local authorities better understand and address a complex land use system, and develop improved land use management strategies that could better balance urban expansion and ecological conservation.     

开封市的城市生态位变化分析

Niche theory is one of the most important ecological theories. It is widely applied to analyzing such phenomena as competition among, and evolution of, urban ecosystem functional modules. This paper describes a study concerning＇different functional modules of Kaifeng city urban ecosystem. Niche theory and techniques were used to analyze the changes of these functional modules in the period 1994-2003. The results showed that, in the period 1994-2003： （1） Niche value of the atmospheric environment and urban virescence modules increased, while niche value of the water environment and sound environment modules decreased; （2） niche value of the tertiary industry module increased, niche value of the secondary industry module decreased, while niche value of the primary industry module showed little change; and （3） niche value of the infrastructure, resource distribution, and production ＆ social security modules increased, while niche value of the population module decreased. This study may contribute to macroscopic planning of urban functional modules, economic development, and environmental protection.     

1966-2004年青藏铁路沿线年冻结与融化指数的变化趋势

Annual freezing and thawing index of 7 meteorological stations along the Qing- hai-Xizang Railway were calculated based on daily maximum and minimum temperature records for 1966-2004. Trends of annual freezing and thawing index were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test and a simple linear regression method. The results show that： 1） The mean annual freezing indices range from 95 to 2300℃·d and the mean annual thawing indices range from 630 to 3250℃·d. The mean annual freezing index of the 7 stations exhibited decreasing trends with decreasing rate of -16.6- -59.1 ℃·d/10a. The mean annual thawing index of these 7 stations showed increasing trends with the related decreasing rate is 19.83-45.6℃·d/10a. 2） The MK trend test indicated the significant decreasing trends （significant at 〈 0.05 significant level） in the annual freezing index for most stations except for Golmud. The significant increasing trends can be observed in the annual thawing index for 4 stations except Golmud and Tuotuohe. Golmud was the only station with no trends in both annual freezing and annual thawing index.     

北京城市蔓延的测度与分析

针对现阶段我国城市用地快速扩张和无序蔓延的现实问题, 以北京市在1996~2004 年期间的城市扩展作为研究案例, 提出可以从城市扩展形态、扩展效率和外部影响等三个方面来判识城市蔓延现象, 并提出基于地理空间指标体系的城市蔓延测度方法, 主要由涉及人口、经济、土地利用、农业、环境和城市生活等方面的13 项指标所组成。实证分析结果表明, 该方法可以有效地测度和量化研究区城市蔓延的特征: ① 建设用地斑块具有明显的破碎化和不规则化趋势, 缺乏良好的规划控制, 不连续开发、条带式开发和跳跃式开发特征明显, 扩展形态不尽合理; ② 新增建设用地的建设密度和容积率较低, 并且新增用地的人口密度和经济产出水平均低于原有用地绩效, 扩展效率不高; ③ 城市蔓延占用大量的耕地和开敞空间、加重了交通负担, 对农业、环境和城市生活存在显著的负面影响。     

长江三角洲城市带扩展对区域温度变化的影响

Based on non-radiance-calibrated DMSP/OLS nighttime light imagery from 1992 to 2003, urban land area statistical data, meteorological data and land surface temperature data retrieved by MODIS and NOAA/AVHRR data, the influence of urbanization on regional cli- matic trend of temperature in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) was analyzed. Conclusions are as follows: 1) There is a significant urbanization process from 1992 to 2003 in the YRD. Four city clusters of Nanjing–Zhenjiang–Yangzhou, Suzhou–Wuxi–Changzhou, Shanghai and Hangzhou Bay form a zigzag city belt. The increase rate of annual mean air temperature in city-belt is 0.28–0.44℃/10a from 1991 to 2005, which is far larger than that of non-city-belt. 2) The urban heat island (UHI) effect on regional mean air temperature in different seasons is summer>autumn>spring>winter. 3) The UHI intensity and the urban total population logarithm are creditably correlated. 4) The UHI effect made the regional annual mean air temperature increased 0.072℃ from 1961 to 2005, of which 0.047℃ from 1991 to 2005, and the annual maximum air temperature increased 0.162℃, of which 0.083℃ from 1991 to 2005. All these indicating that the urban expansion in the YRD from 1991 to 2005 may be regarded as a serious climate signal.     

长沙城市形态与用地类型的时空演化特征

运用GIS技术与高级编程方法提取了长沙市1979、1996年、2003年的城市用地现状图的数据信息,借助最小二乘技术,通过幂指数拟合,计算出了各年份的城市形态与用地结构的分维数,并探讨了长沙城市分形演化的机理和城市形态演化的信息熵。通过对分维数的时空变化所包括信息的分析,发现长沙城市形态及各职能类用地存在明显的分形特征,且各类职能用地的分维小于城市形态的整体分维,符合理论上推断的城市分维包容原理,整个城市形态朝着混沌向有序渐趋优化演化,但同时也存在绿化用地与对外交通用地发展不够完善的问题。     

基于“规模—密度—形态”的大连市城市韧性评估

以建设安全城市为目标,依据地理学和景观生态思想方法,构建基于“规模—密度—形态”的三维城市韧性研究框架,并对2000-2016年大连市各县市区的城市韧性进行评估。其中规模韧性利用生态基础设施工具进行度量,密度韧性利用生态足迹与生态承载力工具进行度量,形态韧性基于源汇景观平均距离指数进行度量。还对各年份三类韧性的组合形式进行综合评判。本文认为,“规模—密度—形态”三位一体的韧性评估方法可有效识别城市的韧性特征,是建立城市规划与城市韧性研究之间有效联系的纽带。研究发现：① 规模安全是城市空间扩张的基本约束条件;② 生态承载力是城市密度的安全阈值;③ “源—汇”景观的空间耦合是优良城市形态的基本特征;④ 是“规模—密度—形态”三个韧性的组合状况而不是某一单项指标决定城市的安全性。基于规模、密度、形态韧性及其组合特征判定,为未来大连的城市发展提出建议：① 严格限制中心城区与金州区开发强度,遏制其蔓延式增长趋势;② 严格控制海岸带开发,维持山体和绿色植被斑块的完整性;③ 促进市域均衡开发,提升城市整体韧性;④ 优化新市区开发战略,形成良好城市形态。     

Exploring the future of rural–urban connections in sub-Saharan Africa: modelling urban expansion and its impact on food production in the Addis Ababa region

Abstract

The built-up area of Addis Ababa and its surrounding towns is expanding into the peri-urban region leading to high losses of farmland, directly influencing the food production for the urban population. This paper investigates the patterns of settlement growth in the region surrounding Addis Ababa and their impact on peri-urban agriculture using an urban spatial scenario design model. The effects of two population density scenarios are explored within the framework of a proposed master plan. The model output was used to estimate areas of different suitability levels that would be lost to the modelled settlement expansion. The settlement area in 2038 would represent 29% of the case study’s total area in the low-density scenario but only 19% in the high-density scenario. Compared to the low-density scenario, the high-density scenario would only require a third of the agricultural land transformed into settlement areas. Settlement development would contribute to higher losses of land suitable for cultivating important export products, high nutritional value and import-substituting products. The scenario approach can support sustainable regional planning for settlement expansion that conserves valuable farmland in the peri-urban area and contributes to building capacity for strategic planning of the city regions of sub-Saharan Africa.