Water and salt balance modelling to predict the effects of land-use changes in forested catchments. 3. The large catchment model

This paper presents an application of a long-term, large catchment-scale, water balance model developed to predict the effects of forest clearing in the south-west of Western Australia. The conceptual model simulates the basic daily water balance fluxes in forested catchments before and after clearing. The large catchment is divided into a number of sub-catchments (1–5 km² in area), which are taken as the fundamental building blocks of the large catchment model. The responses of the individual subcatchments to rainfall and pan evaporation are conceptualized in terms of three inter-dependent subsurface stores A, B and F, which are considered to represent the moisture states of the subcatchments. Details of the subcatchment-scale water balance model have been presented earlier in Part 1 of this series of papers. The response of any subcatchment is a function of its local moisture state, as measured by the local values of the stores. The variations of the initial values of the stores among the subcatchments are described in the large catchment model through simple, linear equations involving a number of similarity indices representing topography, mean annual rainfall and level of forest clearing. The model is applied to the Conjurunup catchment, a medium-sized (39·6 km²) catchment in the south-west of Western Australia. The catchment has been heterogeneously (in space and time) cleared for bauxite mining and subsequently rehabilitated. For this application, the catchment is divided into 11 subcatchments. The model parameters are estimated by calibration, by comparing observed and predicted runoff values, over a 18 year period, for the large catchment and two of the subcatchments. Excellent fits are obtained.     

Water and salt balance modelling to predict the effects of land-use changes in forested catchments. 2. coupled model of water and salt balances

A long-term salt balance model is coupled with the small catchment water balance model presented in Part 1 of this series of papers. The salt balance model was designed as a simple robust, conceptually based model of the fundamental salt fluxes and stores in forested and cleared catchments. The model has four interdependent stores representing salt storage in the unsaturated zone, the deep permanent saturated groundwater system, the near-stream perched groundwater system and in a ‘salt bulge’ just above the permanent water-table. The model has performed well in simulations carried out on Salmon and Wights, two small experimental catchments in south-west Western Australia. When applied to Wights catchment the salt balance model was able to predict the stream salinities prior to clearing of native forests, and the increased salinities after the clearing.     

Effect of bedrock flow on catchment rainfall‐runoff characteristics and the water balance in forested catchments in Tanzawa Mountains,Japan

In this paper, we examined the role of bedrock groundwater discharge and recharge on the water balance and runoff characteristics in forested headwater catchments. Using rigorous observations of catchment precipitation, discharge and streamwater chemistry, we quantified net bedrock flow rates and contributions to streamwater runoff and the water balance in three forested catchments (second‐order to third‐order catchments) underlain by uniform bedrock in Japan. We found that annual rainfall in 2010 was 3130 mm. In the same period, annual discharge in the three catchments varied from 1800 to 3900 mm/year. Annual net bedrock flow rates estimated by the chloride mass balance method at each catchment ranged from ?1600 to 700 mm/year. The net bedrock flow rates were substantially different in the second‐order and third‐order catchments. During baseflow, discharge from the three catchments was significantly different; conversely, peak flows during large storm events and direct runoff ratios were not significantly different. These results suggest that differences in baseflow discharge rates, which are affected by bedrock flow and intercatchment groundwater transfer, result in the differences in water balance among the catchments. This study also suggests that in these second‐order to third‐order catchments, the drainage area during baseflow varies because of differences between the bedrock drainage area and surface drainage area, but that the effective drainage area during storm flow approaches the surface drainage area. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological response to future land-use change and climate change in a tropical catchment

Hydrological response to expected future changes in land use and climate in the Samin catchment (278 km²) in Java, Indonesia, was simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model. We analysed changes between the baseline period 1983–2005 and the future period 2030–2050 under both land-use change and climate change. We used the outputs of a bias-corrected regional climate model and six global climate models to include climate model uncertainty. The results show that land-use change and climate change individually will cause changes in the water balance components, but that more pronounced changes are expected if the drivers are combined, in particular for changes in annual streamflow and surface runoff. The findings of this study will be useful for water resource managers to mitigate future risks associated with land-use and climate changes in the study catchment.     

Simulating the impacts of land-use and climate change on water resource availability for a large south Indian catchment

Abstract

A monthly rainfall-runoff model was calibrated for a large tropical catchment in southern India. Various land-use and climatic change scenarios were tested to assess their effects on mean annual runoff and assured water yield at the Bhavanisagar Reservoir in Tamil Nadu, India. The largest increase in runoff (19%) came from converting forest and savanna (the indigenous control scenario) to agriculture. Mean annual runoff decreased by 35% after conversion to commercial forest and 6% after partial conversion to tea plantations. The predicted climate scenarios of reduced dry season rainfall decreased the annual runoff by 5% while enhanced annual rainfall caused a 17% increase in runoff. Even if land-use and climate changes had relatively large effects on runoff, the changes in reservoir yield which can be assured every year, were often less severe. This was probably due to the buffering effect of the reservoir and variation in the mean annual runoff.     

Attribution of changes in the water balance of a tropical catchment to land use change using the SWAT model

Changes in the water balance of the Samin catchment (277.9 km²) on Java, Indonesia, can be attributed to land use change using the Soil Water Assessment Tool model. A baseline‐altered method was used in which the simulation period 1990–2013 was divided into 4 equal periods to represent baseline conditions (1990–1995) and altered land use conditions (1996–2001, 2002–2007, and 2008–2013). Land use maps for 1994, 2000, 2006, and 2013 were acquired from satellite images. A Soil Water Assessment Tool model was calibrated for the baseline period and applied to the altered periods with and without land use change. Incorporating land use change resulted in a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.7 compared to 0.6 when land use change is ignored. In addition, the model performance for simulations without land use change gradually decreased with time. Land use change appeared to be the important driver for changes in the water balance. The main land use changes during 1994–2013 are a decrease in forest area from 48.7% to 16.9%, an increase in agriculture area from 39.2% to 45.4%, and an increase in settlement area from 9.8% to 34.3%. For the catchment, this resulted in an increase of the runoff coefficient from 35.7% to 44.6% and a decrease in the ratio of evapotranspiration to rainfall from 60% to 54.8%. More pronounced changes can be observed for the ratio of surface runoff to stream flow (increase from 26.6% to 37.5%) and the ratio of base flow to stream flow (decrease from 40% to 31.1%), whereas changes in the ratio of lateral flow to stream flow were minor (decrease from 33.4% to 31.4%). At sub‐catchment level, the effect of land use changes on the water balance varied in different sub‐catchments depending on the scale of changes in forest and settlement area.     

Characterizing the climatic water balance dynamics and different runoff components in a poorly gauged tropical forested catchment,Nicaragua

ABSTRACT

The water balance dynamics and runoff components of a tropical forested catchment (46?km²) on the southwestern Pacific coast of Nicaragua were studied combining hydrometry, geological characterization and hydrochemical and isotopic tracers (three-component hydrograph separation). The climatic water balance was estimated for 2010/11, 2011/12 and 2012/13 with net values of 811?mm year^-1, 782?mm year^-1 and –447?mm year^-1, respectively. Runoff components were studied at different spatial and temporal scales, demonstrating that different sources and temporal contributions are controlled by dominant landscape elements and antecedent rainfall. In forested sub-catchments, permeable soils, stratigraphy and steep slopes favour subsurface stormflow generation contributing 50% and 53% to total discharge. At catchment scale, landscape elements such as smooth slopes, wide valleys, deeper soils and water table allow groundwater recharge during rainfall events. Groundwater dominates the hydrograph (50% of total discharge) under dry prior conditions. However, low soil infiltration capacity generates a larger surface runoff component (42%) under wet prior conditions which dominates total discharge. Our results show that forested areas are important to reduce surface runoff and thus soil degradation, which is relevant for the design of water management plans.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Associate editor D. Gerten     

Water balance components estimation under scenarios of land cover change in the Vea catchment,West Africa

ABSTRACT

The need for a detailed investigation of the Vea catchment water balance components cannot be overemphasized due to its accelerated land-cover dynamics and the associated impacts on the hydrological processes. This study assessed the possible consequences of land-use change scenarios (i.e. business as usual, BAU, and afforestation for the year 2025) compared to the 2016 baseline on the Vea catchment’s water balance components using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The data used include daily climate and discharge, soil and land use/land cover maps. The results indicate that the mean annual water yield may increase by 9.1% under the BAU scenario but decrease by 2.7% under the afforestation scenario; actual evapotranspiration would decrease under BAU but increase under afforestation; and groundwater recharge may increase under both scenarios but would be more pronounced under the afforestation scenario. These outcomes highlight the significance of land-cover dynamics in water resource management and planning at the catchment.     

Opportunities for manipulating catchment water balance by changing vegetation type on a topographic sequence: a simulation study

This simulation study explores opportunities to reduce catchment deep drainage through better matching land use with soil and topography, including the ‘harvesting’ (evapotranspiration) of excess water running on to lower land units. A farming system simulator was coupled with a catchment hydrological framework to enable analysis of climate variability and 11 different land‐use options as they impact the catchment water balance. These land‐use options were arranged in different configurations down a sequence of three hydrologically interconnected slope units (uphill, mid‐slope and valley floor land units) in a subcatchment of Simmons Creek, southern New South Wales, Australia. With annual crops, the valley floor land units were predicted to receive 187 mm year^?1 of run‐on water in addition to annual rainfall in 1 in 10 years, and in excess of 94 mm year^?1 in 1 in 4 years. In this valley floor position, predicted drainage averaged approximately 110 mm year^?1 under annual crops and pastures, whereas permanent tree cover or perennial lucerne was predicted to reduce drainage by up to 99%. The planting of trees or lucerne on the valley floor units could ‘harvest’ run‐on water, reducing drainage for the whole subcatchment with proportionately small reduction in land areas cropped. Upslope land units, even though often having shallower soil, will not necessarily be the most effective locations to plant perennial vegetation for the purposes of recharge reduction. Water harvesting opportunities are site specific, dependent on the amounts and frequency of flows of water to lower landscape units, the amounts and frequency of deep drainage on the different land units, the relative areas of the different land units, and interactions with land use in the different slope positions. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the impacts of climate change on water quantity and quality modelling in small Slovenian Mediterranean catchment – lesson for policy and decision makers

The study aims to address the long‐term impacts of six different downscaled Regional Climate Models (RCM) climate models on the quantity (river flow) and quality (sediment load, total nitrogen load and total phosphorus load) state of surface waters in the river Reka catchment, in the northern Mediterranean. Mediterranean areas are – due to high population density, favourable natural conditions for agriculture, limited water resources, diverse ecosystems biodiversity and expected climate change impacts – a global hotspot in climate research. Additionally, the study area lies on the border with the alpine climate zone, with a strong orographic effect on weather patterns. The location, and a wide range of studied parameters, provides an interesting insight into how various emerging climate change models may impact the status of surface waters and procedures for the governance of water resources. The study contributes to the knowledge and understanding of the climate change impact on the local catchment level, using the ensemble of the RCMs. It opens discussion about the impact of RCM selection on modelling climate changes with catchment models like Soil and Water Assessment Tool. This article also questions the usability of the results for the policy and decision makers in relation to the implementation of the results into short or long‐term water strategies or water/river management plans. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantifying aggregation and change in runoff source in accordance with catchment area increase in a forested headwater catchment

There has been a great deal of research interest regarding changes in flow path/runoff source with increases in catchment area. However, there have been very few quantitative studies taking subscale variability and convergence of flow path/runoff source into account, especially in relation to headwater catchments. This study was performed to elucidate how the contributions and discharge rates of subsurface water (water in the soil layer) and groundwater (water in fractured bedrock) aggregate and change with catchment area increase, and to elucidate whether the spatial variability of the discharge rate of groundwater determines the spatial variability of stream discharge or groundwater contribution. The study area was a 5‐km² forested headwater catchment in Japan. We measured stream discharge at 113 points and water chemistry at 159 points under base flow conditions. End‐member mixing analysis was used to separate stream water into subsurface water and groundwater. The contributions of both subsurface water and groundwater had large variability below 1 km². The contribution of subsurface water decreased markedly, while that of groundwater increased markedly, with increases in catchment area. The specific discharge of subsurface water showed a large degree of variability and decreased with catchment area below 0.1 km², becoming almost constant above 0.1 km². The specific discharge of groundwater showed large variability below 1 km² and increased with catchment area. These results indicated that the variabilities of stream discharge and groundwater contribution corresponded well with the variability of the discharge rate of groundwater. However, below 0.1 km², it was necessary to consider variations in the discharge rates of both subsurface water and groundwater. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stability of model performance and parameter values on two catchments facing changes in climatic conditions

Abstract

Hydrological models are often used for studying the hydrological effects of climate change; however, the stability of model performance and parameter values under changing climate conditions has seldom been evaluated and compared. In this study, three widely-used rainfall–runoff models, namely the SimHYD model, the HBV model and the Xin’anjiang model, are evaluated on two catchments subject to changing climate conditions. Evaluation is carried out with respect to the stability in their performance and parameter values in different calibration periods. The results show that (a) stability of model performance and parameter values depends on model structure as well as the climate of catchments, and the models with higher performance scores are more stable in changing conditions; (b) all the tested models perform better on a humid catchment than on an arid catchment; (c) parameter values are also more stable on a humid catchment than on an arid catchment; and (d) the differences in stability among models are somewhat larger in terms of model efficiency than in model parameter values.     

Uncertainty and multiple objective calibration in regional water balance modelling: case study in 320 Austrian catchments

We examine the value of additional information in multiple objective calibration in terms of model performance and parameter uncertainty. We calibrate and validate a semi‐distributed conceptual catchment model for two 11‐year periods in 320 Austrian catchments and test three approaches of parameter calibration: (a) traditional single objective calibration (SINGLE) on daily runoff; (b) multiple objective calibration (MULTI) using daily runoff and snow cover data; (c) multiple objective calibration (APRIORI) that incorporates an a priori expert guess about the parameter distribution as additional information to runoff and snow cover data. Results indicate that the MULTI approach performs slightly poorer than the SINGLE approach in terms of runoff simulations, but significantly better in terms of snow cover simulations. The APRIORI approach is essentially as good as the SINGLE approach in terms of runoff simulations but is slightly poorer than the MULTI approach in terms of snow cover simulations. An analysis of the parameter uncertainty indicates that the MULTI approach significantly decreases the uncertainty of the model parameters related to snow processes but does not decrease the uncertainty of other model parameters as compared to the SINGLE case. The APRIORI approach tends to decrease the uncertainty of all model parameters as compared to the SINGLE case. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fine sediment delivery and transfer in lowland catchments: modelling suspended sediment concentrations in response to hydrological forcing

Fine sediment delivery to and storage in stream channel reaches can disrupt aquatic habitats, impact river hydromorphology, and transfer adsorbed nutrients and pollutants from catchment slopes to the fluvial system. This paper presents a modelling tool for simulating the time‐dependent response of the fine sediment system in catchments, using an integrated approach that incorporates both land phase and in‐stream processes of sediment generation, storage and transfer. The performance of the model is demonstrated by applying it to simulate in‐stream suspended sediment concentrations in two lowland catchments in southern England, the Enborne and the Lambourn, which exhibit contrasting hydrological and sediment responses due to differences in substrate permeability. The sediment model performs well in the Enborne catchment, where direct runoff events are frequent and peak suspended sediment concentrations can exceed 600 mg l^?1. The general trends in the in‐stream concentrations in the Lambourn catchment are also reproduced by the model, although the observed concentrations are low (rarely exceeding 50 mg l^?1) and the background variability in the concentrations is not fully characterized by the model. Direct runoff events are rare in this highly permeable catchment, resulting in a weak coupling between the sediment delivery system and the catchment hydrology. The generic performance of the model is also assessed using a generalized sensitivity analysis based on the parameter bounds identified in the catchment applications. Results indicate that the hydrological parameters contributing to the sediment response include those controlling (1) the partitioning of runoff between surface and soil zone flows and (2) the fractional loss of direct runoff volume prior to channel delivery. The principal sediment processes controlling model behaviour in the simulations are the transport capacity of direct runoff and the in‐stream generation, storage and release of the fine sediment fraction. The in‐stream processes appear to be important in maintaining the suspended sediment concentrations during low flows in the River Enborne and throughout much of the year in the River Lambourn. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using isotopes to understand the evolution of water ages in disturbed mixed land-use catchments

Tracer studies have been key to unravelling catchment hydrological processes, yet most insights have been gained in environments with relatively low human impact. We investigated the spatial variability of stream isotopes and water ages to infer dominant flow paths in a ~10-km² nested catchment in a disturbed, predominantly agricultural environment in Scotland. We collected long-term (>5 years) stable isotope data of precipitation, artificial drainage, and four streams with varying soil and land use types in their catchment areas. Using a gamma model, Mean Transit Times (MTTs) were then estimated in order to understand the spatial variability of controls on water ages. Despite contrasting catchment characteristics, we found that MTTs in the streams were generally very similar and short (<1 year). MTTs of water in artificial drains were even shorter, ranging between 1 to 10 months for a typical field drain and <0.5 to 1 month for a country road drain. At the catchment scale, lack of heterogeneity in the response could be explained by the extensive artificial surface and subsurface drainage, “short-circuiting” younger water to the streams during storms. Under such conditions, additional intense disturbance associated with highway construction during the study period had no major effect on the stream isotope dynamics. Supplementary short-term (~14 months) sampling of mobile soil water in dominant soil-land use units also revealed that agricultural practices (ploughing of poorly draining soils and soil compaction due to grazing on freely draining soils) resulted in subtle MTT variations in soil water in the upper profile. Overall, the isotope dynamics and inferred MTTs suggest that the evolution of stream water ages in such a complex human-influenced environment are largely related to near-surface soil processes and the dominant soil management practices. This has direct implications for understanding and managing flood risk and contaminant transport in such environments.     

Integrating glaciers raster‐based modelling in large catchments hydrological balance: the Rhone case study

A raster‐based glacier sub‐model was successfully introduced in the distributed hydrological model FEST‐WB to simulate the water balance and surface runoff of large Alpine catchments. The glacier model is based on temperature‐index approach for melt, on linear reservoir for melt water propagation into the ice and on mass balance for accumulation; the initialization of the volume of ice on the basin was based on a formulation depending on surface topography. The model was first tested on a sub‐basin of the Rhone basin (Switzerland), which is for 62% glaciated; the calibration and validation were based on comparison between simulated and observed discharge from 1999 to 2008. The model proved to be suitable to simulate the typical discharge seasonality of a heavily glaciated basin. The performance of the model was also tested by simulating discharge in the whole Swiss Rhone basin, in which glaciers contribution is not negligible, in fact, in summer, about the 40% of the discharge is due to glacier melt. The model allowed to take into account the volume of water coming from glaciers melt and its simple structure is suitable for analysis of the effects of climate change on hydrological regime of high mountain basins, with available meteorological forcing from current RCM. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Water balance simulation for resource evaluation at the catchment scale: application to the Nema (Sudano-Sahelian zone,Senegal)

Abstract

The Nema is a river in western Senegal where only a minority of inhabitants has access to drinking water. Rainfall has been decreasing in this region since the 1960s. It is crucial to understand how this change affects groundwater recharge. The objective of this research is to determine the current proportions of groundwater recharge, runoff, subsurface runoff and evapotranspiration using a simulation approach. The Nash criterion and water balance error were used to evaluate the quality of the simulations. The following results were obtained: the Nash criterion was 0.73 for calibration (0.73 for validation), and the water balance error was ?0.35% and 0.005%, respectively, for the hydrological years 1995/96 and 1997/98. Evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge are the main processes involved.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Hughes     

Estimation of sub-annual inter-catchment groundwater flow using short-term water balance method

Predicting inter-catchment groundwater flow (IGF) is essential because IGF greatly affects stream water discharge and water chemistry. However, methods for estimating sub-annual IGF and clarifying its mechanisms using minimal data are limited. Thus, we quantified the sub-annual IGF and elucidated its driving factors using the short-term water balance method (STWB) for three forest headwater catchments in Japan (named here catchment A, B and As). Our previous study using the chloride mass balance indicated that annual IGF of catchment A (49.0 ha) can be negligible. Therefore, we calculated the daily evapotranspiration (ET) rate using the Priestley–Taylor expression and the 5-year water balance in catchment A (2010–2014). The sub-annual IGF of the three catchments was then calculated by subtracting the ET rate from the difference between rainfall and stream discharge during the sub-annual water balance periods selected using the STWB. The IGF rates of catchment B (7.0 ha), which is adjacent to catchment A, were positive in most cases, indicating that more groundwater flowed out of the catchment than into it, and exhibited positive linear relationships with rainfall and stream discharge. This suggested that as the catchments became wetter, more groundwater flowed out of catchment B. Conversely, the IGF rates of catchment As (5.3 ha), included in catchment A, were negative in most cases, indicating that more groundwater flowed into the catchment than out from it, and exhibited negative linear relationships with rainfall and stream discharge. Given the topography of the catchments studied, infiltration into the bedrock was the probable reason for the IGF outflow from catchment B. We hypothesized that in catchment As, the discrepancy between the actual hydrological boundary and the surface topographic boundary could have caused an IGF inflow. This study provides a useful tool for determining an IGF model structure to be incorporated into rainfall-runoff models.     

Hydrological response characteristics of Mediterranean catchments at different time scales: a meta-analysis

ABSTRACT

This work examines 140 hydrological studies conducted in the Mediterranean region. It identifies key characteristics of the hydrological responses of Mediterranean catchments at various time scales and compares different methods and modelling approaches used for individual-catchment studies. The study area is divided into the northwestern (NWM), eastern (EM) and southern (SM) Mediterranean. The analysis indicates regional discrepancies in which the NWM shows the most extreme rainfall regime. A tendency for reduced water resources driven by both anthropogenic and climatic pressures and a more extreme rainfall regime are also noticeable. Catchments show very heterogeneous responses over time and space, resulting in limitations in hydrological modelling and large uncertainties in predictions. However, few models have been developed to address these issues. Additional studies are necessary to improve the knowledge of Mediterranean hydrological features and to account for regional specificities.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Associate editor A. Efstratiadis