The caldera-forming eruption of Volcán Ceboruco, Mexico

3 of magma erupted, ∼95% of which was deposited as fall layers. During most of the deposition of P1, eruptive intensity (mass flux) was almost constant at 4–8×10⁷ kg s⁻¹, producing a Plinian column 25–30 km in height. Size grading at the top of P1 indicates, however, that mass flux waned dramatically, and possibly that there was a brief pause in the eruption. During the post-P1 phase of the eruption, a much smaller volume of magma erupted, although mass flux varied by more than an order of magnitude. We suggest that caldera collapse began at the end of the P1 phase of the eruption, because along with the large differences in mass flux behavior between P1 and post-P1 layers, there were also dramatic changes in lithic content (P1 contains ∼8% lithics; post-P1 layers contain 30–60%) and magma composition (P1 is 98% rhyodacite; post-P1 layers are 60–90% rhyodacite). However, the total volume of magma erupted during the Jala pumice event is close to that estimated for the caldera. These observations appear to conflict with models which envision that, after an eruption is initiated by overpressure in the magma chamber, caldera collapse begins when the reservoir becomes underpressurized as a result of the removal of magma. The conflict arises because firstly, the P1 layer makes up too large a proportion (∼75%) of the total volume erupted to correspond to an overpressurized phase, and secondly, the caldera volume exceeds the post-P1 volume of magma by at least a factor of three. The mismatches between model and observations could be reconciled if collapse began near the beginning of the eruption, but no record of such early collapse is evident in the tephra sequence. The apparent inability to place the Jala pumice eruptive sequence into existing models of caldera collapse, which were constructed to explain the formation of calderas much greater in volume than that at Ceboruco, may indicate that differences in caldera mechanics exist that depend on size or that a more general model for caldera formation is needed. Received: 18 November 1998 / Accepted: 23 October 1999     

Dike emplacement near Parícutin volcano,Mexico in 2006

A major seismic swarm occurred near Parícutin volcano between the end of May and early July 2006. More than 700 earthquakes with magnitude (M _L ) exceeding 2.4 were located. Parícutin, located in the Michoacán–Guanajuato volcanic field in western Mexico, is well known as the site of the 1943 eruption in which a new 400 m cinder cone was constructed in what had been farmland. The 2006 swarm exhibits all of the characteristics typically associated with swarms of volcanic origins. The earthquake rate showed the typical ramp up and ramp down over the course of several days. Magnitudes were evenly distributed in time with a notably high b-value of 2.45. The earthquake locations cluster around a northeast-striking trend extending approximately 6 km. Over the first two weeks, hypocenters migrated steadily a few hundred meters per day, rising from 9 to 5 km depth and moving northeast about 5 km. On approximately June 7, the ascent of hypocenters stalled. For the next three weeks, hypocenters held their depth while migrating laterally back to the southwest. Focal mechanisms during the first part of the swarm reflected the increased stress caused by dike inflation. Following June 7, the stress orientation changed and became more consistent with the inflation of horizontal sill-like structures. Though only limited information is available from the seismic swarm preceding the 1943 eruption, several features, including the swarm duration and magnitude relationships, were comparable to those of the 2006 episode. The strong indicators of a magmatic origin to the 2006 swarm suggest that at this location there are few, if any, traditional seismic discriminants that could be used to distinguish which seismic swarms and dike emplacement events might culminate in eruption.     

Hydro-climatic variability and forest fires in Mexico’s northern temperate forests

Global warming is likely modifying the hydrological cycle of forested watersheds. This report set as objectives to: a) assess the hydrological variables interception loss, I, potential and actual evapo-transpiration, E, Et, runoff, Q, and soil moisture content, θ; b) evaluate whether these variables are presenting consistent trends or oscillations that can be associated to global warming or climate variability; and c) relate θ to the number of wildfires and the burned area in Durango, Mexico. A mass balance approach estimated daily variables of the water cycle using sub-models for I and Et to calculate Q and θ for a time series from 1945 to 2007. Regression and auto-regressive and moving averaging (ARIMA) techniques evaluated the statistical significance of trends. The cumulative standardized z value magnified and ARIMA models projected statistically similar monthly and annual time series data of all variables of the water cycle. Regression analysis and ARIMA models showed monthly and annual P, I, E, and Et, Q, and θ do not follow consistent up or downward linear tendencies over time with statistical significance; they rather follow oscillations that could be adequately predicted by ARIMA models (r² ≥ 0.70). There was a consistent statistical association (p ≤ 0.05) of θ with the number of wildfires and the area burned regardless of the different spatial scales used in evaluating these variables. The analysis shows seasonal variability is increasing over time as magnifying pulses of dryness and wetness, which may be the response of the hydrological cycle to climate change. Further research must center on using longer time series data, testing seasonal variability with additional statistical analysis, and incorporating new variables in the analysis.     

Stratovolcano stability assessment methods and results from Citlaltépetl,Mexico

Citlaltépetl volcano is the easternmost stratovolcano in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. Situated within 110 km of Veracruz, it has experienced two major collapse events and, subsequent to its last collapse, rebuilt a massive, symmetrical summit cone. To enhance hazard mitigation efforts we assess the stability of Citlaltépetl's summit cone, the area thought most likely to fail during a potential massive collapse event. Through geologic mapping, alteration mineralogy, geotechnical studies, and stability modeling we provide important constraints on the likelihood, location, and size of a potential collapse event. The volcano's summit cone is young, highly fractured, and hydrothermally altered. Fractures are most abundant within 5–20-m wide zones defined by multiple parallel to subparallel fractures. Alteration is most pervasive within the fracture systems and includes acid sulfate, advanced argillic, argillic, and silicification ranks. Fractured and altered rocks both have significantly reduced rock strengths, representing likely bounding surfaces for future collapse events. The fracture systems and altered rock masses occur non-uniformly, as an orthogonal set with N–S and E–W trends. Because these surfaces occur non-uniformly, hazards associated with collapse are unevenly distributed about the volcano. Depending on uncertainties in bounding surfaces, but constrained by detailed field studies, potential failure volumes are estimated to range between 0.04–0.5 km³. Stability modeling was used to assess potential edifice failure events. Modeled failure of the outer portion of the cone initially occurs as an "intact block" bounded by steeply dipping joints and outwardly dipping flow contacts. As collapse progresses, more of the inner cone fails and the outer "intact" block transforms into a collection of smaller blocks. Eventually, a steep face develops in the uppermost and central portion of the cone. This modeled failure morphology mimics collapse amphitheaters present at many of the world's stratovolcanoes that have experienced massive failure events.Editorial responsibility: H. Shinohara     

Study of Seismic Clusters at Bahía de Banderas Region,Mexico

The coast in the state of Jalisco and south of Nayarit is located within a region of high seismic potential, increasing population, and tourism development. This motivated Civil Defense authorities of Jalisco and the Universidad de Guadalajara to launch in the year 2000 the assessment of the seismic risk of the region. This work focuses in the seismicity study of the area of Bahía de Banderas and northern coast of Jalisco, which is actually a seismic gap. We perform an analysis of available seismograms to characterize active crustal structures, their relationship to surface morphology, and possible extent of these structures into the bay shallow parts. The data consist of waveforms recorded during 2003 when the seismograph network spanned the region. Our method is based on the identification of seismic clusters or families using cross-correlation of waveforms, earthquake relocation and modeling of fault planes. From an initial data set of 404 located earthquakes, 96 earthquakes with M_L < 3.6 are related to 17 potentially active continental structures. We present fault plane model for 11 structures. A subgroup of 7 structures is aligned parallel to the Middle America Trench, as a possible consequence of oblique subduction. The foci of the earthquakes were grouped into clusters corresponding to fault dimensions of hundred of meters, may be considered as asperities or barriers in tectonic structures with lengths between 10 and 30 km. These structures could generate shallow earthquakes with magnitudes between 5.0 and 6.0 and represent an additional seismic threat to the region.     

Precursory seismicity of the 1994 eruption of Popocatépetl Volcano,Central Mexico

Popocatépetl Volcano is located in the central Mexican Volcanic Belt, within a densely populated region inhabited by over 20 million people. The eruptive history of this volcano indicates that it is capable of producing a wide range of eruptions, including Plinian events. After nearly 70 years of quiescence, Popocatépetl reawakened in December 21, 1994. The eruptive activity has continued up until the date of this submission and has been characterized by a succession of lava dome growth-and-destruction episodes, similar to events that have apparently been typical for Popocatépetl since the fourteenth century. In this regime, the episodes of effusive and moderately explosive activity alternate with long periods of almost total quiescence. In this paper we analyze five years of volcano-tectonic seismicity preceding the initial eruption of the current episode. The evolution of the V-T seismicity shows four distinct stages, which we interpret in terms of the internal processes which precede an eruption after a long period of quiescence. The thermal effects of a magma intrusion at depth, the fracturing related to the slow development of magma-related fluid pathways, the concentration of stress causing a protracted acceleration of this process, and a final relaxation or redistribution of the stress shortly before the initial eruption are reflected in the rates of V-T seismic energy release. A hindsight analysis of this activity shows that the acceleration of the seismicity in the third stage asymptotically forecast the time of the eruption. The total seismic energy release needed to produce an eruption after a long period of quiescence is related to the volume of rock that must be fractured so imposing a characteristic threshold limit for polygenetic volcanoes, limit that was reached by Popocatépetl before the eruption.     

Hazard map for volcanic ballistic impacts at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico)

During volcanic explosions, volcanic ballistic projectiles (VBP) are frequently ejected. These projectiles represent a threat to people, infrastructure, vegetation, and aircraft due to their high temperatures and impact velocities. In order to protect people adequately, it is necessary to delimit the projectiles’ maximum range within well-defined explosion scenarios likely to occur in a particular volcano. In this study, a general methodology to delimit the hazard zones for VBP during volcanic eruptions is applied to Popocatépetl volcano. Three explosion scenarios with different intensities have been defined based on the past activity of the volcano and parameterized by considering the maximum kinetic energy associated with VBP ejected during previous eruptions. A ballistic model is used to reconstruct the “launching” kinetic energy of VBP observed in the field. In the case of Vulcanian eruptions, the most common type of activity at Popocatépetl, the ballistic model was used in concert with an eruptive model to correlate ballistic range with initial pressure and gas content, parameters that can be estimated by monitoring techniques. The results are validated with field data and video observations of different Vulcanian eruptions at Popocatépetl. For each scenario, the ballistic model is used to calculate the maximum range of VBP under optimum “launching” conditions: ballistic diameter, ejection angle, topography, and wind velocity. Our results are presented in the form of a VBP hazard map with topographic profiles that depict the likely maximum ranges of VBP under explosion scenarios defined specifically for Popocatépetl volcano. The hazard zones shown on the map allow the responsible authorities to plan the definition and mitigation of restricted areas during volcanic crises.     

Pyroclastic flow deposits of the 1991 eruption of Volcán de Colima,Mexico

The April 16, 1991, eruption of Volcán de Colima represents a classical example of partial dome collapse with the generation of progressively longer-runout, Merapi-type pyroclastic flows that traveled up to 4 km along the El Cordoban gullies (East, Central and West). The flows filled the gullies with block-and-ash flow deposits up to 10 m thick, of which, after 7 years of erosion, only remnants remained in the El Cordoban West and East gullies. The El Cordoban Central gully, however, provided a well-preserved and incised longitudinal section of the 1991 deposits. The deposits were emplaced as proximal and distal facies, separated by a change in slope angle from >30° to <20°. The proximal facies consists of massive, clast-supported flow units (up to 1 m thick) with andesite blocks locally supported by a matrix of coarse ash and devoid of segregation structures or grading. The distal facies consists of a massive, matrix-supported deposit up to 8 m thick, which contains dispersed andesite blocks in a fine ash matrix. In the distal facies, a train of blocks marks flow-unit upper boundaries and, although sorting is poor, some grading is present. Thin, finely stratified, or dune-bedded layers of fine ash material are locally present above or below units of both facies. Sedimentologic parameters show that the size or fraction of large pyroclasts (larger than –1 ) decreases from proximal to distal facies, as the percentage of matrix (0 to 4 ) increases, especially immediately beyond the break in slope. We propose that the propagation of the Colima pyroclastic flows is critically dependent on local slope angle, the presence of erodible slope debris, and the decrease in grain size with distance from the vent. The progressive fining is probably caused by some combination of erosion, clast breakup and deposition of larger pyroclasts, and is itself influenced by the slope angle. In the proximal region, the flows moved as granular avalanches, in which interacting grains ground each other and erosion occurred to produce an overriding dilute ash cloud. The maximum runout distance of the avalanches was controlled by the angle of repose of the material, and the volume and grain size of source and eroded material. Because the slope angle is close to the repose angle for this debris, granular avalanches were not able to propagate far beyond the change in slope. If, however, an avalanche had enough mass in finer grain size fractions, at least part of the flow continued beyond the break in slope and across the volcano apron, propagating in a turbulent state and depositing surge layers, or in an otherwise settling-modified state and depositing block-and-ash flow layers.Editorial responsibility: T Druitt     

Geochemistry of the volcano-hydrothermal system of El Chichón Volcano, Chiapas, Mexico

 The 1982 eruption of El Chichón volcano ejected more than 1 km³ of anhydrite-bearing trachyandesite pyroclastic material to form a new 1-km-wide and 300-m-deep crater and uncovered the upper 500 m of an active volcano-hydrothermal system. Instead of the weak boiling-point temperature fumaroles of the former lava dome, a vigorously boiling crater spring now discharges  / 20 kg/s of Cl-rich (∼15 000 mg/kg) and sulphur-poor ( / 200 mg/kg of SO₄), almost neutral (pH up to 6.7) water with an isotopic composition close to that of subduction-type magmatic water (δD=–15‰, δ¹⁸O=+6.5‰). This spring, as well as numerous Cl-free boiling springs discharging a mixture of meteoric water with fumarolic condensates, feed the crater lake, which, compared with values in 1983, is now much more diluted (∼3000 mg/kg of Cl vs 24 030 mg/kg), less acidic (pH=2.6 vs 0.56) and contains much lower amounts of S ( / 200 mg/kg of SO₄, vs 3550 mg/kg) with δ³⁴S=0.5–4.2‰ (+17‰ in 1983). Agua Caliente thermal waters, on the southeast slope of the volcano, have an outflow rate of approximately 100 kg/s of 71  °C Na–Ca–Cl water and are five times more concentrated than before the eruption (B. R. Molina, unpublished data). Relative N₂, Ar and He gas concentrations suggest extensional tectonics for the El Chichón volcanic centre. The ³He/⁴He and ⁴He/²⁰Ne ratios in gases from the crater fumaroles (7.3R_a, 2560) and Agua Caliente hot springs (5.3R_a, 44) indicate a strong magmatic contribution. However, relative concentrations of reactive species are typical of equilibrium in a two-phase boiling aquifer. Sulphur and C isotopic data indicate highly reducing conditions within the system, probably associated with the presence of buried vegetation resulting from the 1982 eruption. All Cl-rich waters at El Chichón have a common source. This water has the appearence of a "partially matured" magmatic fluid: condensed magmatic vapour neutralized by interaction with fresh volcaniclastic deposits and depleted in S due to anhydrite precipitation. Shallow ground waters emerging around the volcano from the thick cover of fresh pumice deposits (Red waters) are Ca–SO₄–rich and have a negative oxygen isotopic shift, probably due to ongoing formation of clay at low temperatures. Received: 21 July 1997 / Accepted: 4 December 1997     

Holocene block-and-ash flows from summit dome activity of Citlaltépetl volcano,Eastern Mexico

A major eruption produced several block-and-ash flows about 4,100 years B.P. at Citlaltépetl volcano (Pico de Orizaba), an ice-capped, 5670-m-high, andesitic, active stratovolcano located at the eastern end of the Mexican Volcanic Belt. Repetitive gravitational collapse of a dacitic dome at the summit crater produced a series of block-and-ash flows, lahars, and floods, which were channeled through two main river-valleys on the west and south flanks of the volcano. The total erupted volume is estimated to be at least 0.27 km³. The deposits in both areas are similar in composition, and size, but they differ in the area covered, distribution, and structure. The western deposits form a large fan, cover a larger area, and include numerous laharic and fluviatile deposits. In contrast, the southern deposits form prominent terraces where confined in narrow channels, and have associated laharic units in distal areas, where the flows reach a maximum distance of 30 km from the vent. Directed disruptions of a central summit dome occurred, possibly first to the west and then to the southeast, perhaps due to minor modifications of the summit dome morphology, producing the voluminous block-and-ash flow deposits documented here. The flows were strongly controlled by topography, influencing the deposition of the moving particles. Grain-size variations along the flow paths are hardly detectable suggesting no evident lateral downstream transformations. Because sudden changes in dome morphology may cause significant variations in the direction of future dome collapse, specific areas of potential affectation cannot be predicted. Therefore, about 350,000 inhabitants living within a radius of 35-km from the vent could be potentially impacted if catastrophic block-and-ash flows were to recur in the future from similar summit dome activity. Recognition of these deposits is therefore important for hazard assessment because some seemingly safe areas may be at high risk.     

Quantification of the 1998–1999 explosion sequence at Popocatépetl volcano,Mexico

The sequence of large Vulcanian explosions occurring at the andesitic Popocatépetl volcano, Mexico during November 1998 to April 1999 was studied. The size of 26 largest explosions was estimated from broadband seismic records at the distance of 4 km from the crater. The sequence began with the largest explosion (E = 2.6 × 10¹² J) occurring on 25 November at 08:05, and following largest daily explosions were characterized by gradual decrease in the energy. The energy of 20 large (E ≥ 10¹¹ J) explosions was distributed as Student's t-distribution with a geometrical mean Log E = 11.81 (J).     

Plio-pleistocene paleomagnetic record from the Michoacán-Guanajuato Monogenetic Volcanic Field (Western Mexico)

The paleosecular variation (PSV) and polarity transitions are two major features of the Earth’s magnetic field. Both PSV and reversal studies are limited when age of studied units is poorly constrained. This is a case of Central and western Mexico volcanics. Although many studies have been devoted to these crucial problems and more than 200 paleomagnetic directions are available for the last 5 Ma, only few sites were dated directly. This paper presents new paleomagnetic results from seventeen independent cooling units in the Michoacán-Guanajuato Volcanic Field (MGVF) in western Mexico. Twelve sites are directly dated by ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar or K-Ar methods and span from 2.78 to 0.56 Ma. The characteristic paleodirections are successfully isolated for 15 lava flows. The mean paleodirection (inclination I and declination D) obtained in this study is I = 28.8°, D = 354.9°, and Fisherian statistical parameters are k = 28, α₉₅ = 7.3°, N=15, which corresponds to the mean paleomagnetic pole position P_lat = 83.9°, P_long = 321.6°, K = 34, A₉₅ = 6.6°. The paleodirections obtained in present study compiled with those, previously reported from the MGVF, are practically undistinguishable from the expected Plio-Quaternary paleodirections. The paleosecular variation is estimated through the study of the scatter of the virtual geomagnetic poles giving S_F = 15.9 with S_U =21.0 and S_L = 12.7 (upper and lower limits respectively). These values agree reasonably well with the recent statistical Models. The oldest sites analyzed (the Santa Teresa and Cerro Alto) yield normal polarity magnetizations as expected for the cooling units belonging to the Gauss geomagnetic Chron. The interesting feature of the record comes from lava flows dated at about 2.35 Ma with clearly defined normal directions. This may point out the possible existence of a normal polarity magnetization in the Matuyama reversed Chron older than the Reunion and may be correlated to Halawa event interpreted as the Cryptochron C2r.2r-1. Another important feature of the geomagnetic record obtained from the MGVF is the evidence of fully reversed geomagnetic field within Bruhnes Chron, at about 0.56 Ma corresponding to the relative paleointensity minimum of global extent found in marine sediments at about 590 ka.     

Comparative dating of a Bison-bearing late-Pleistocene deposit,Térapa,Sonora, Mexico

A recently discovered Bison-bearing fossil locality at Térapa, Sonora, Mexico, had previously been dated to 440 ± 130 ka using whole rock ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar on a basalt flow that impounds the deposit. This age is considerably older than the accepted age of about 240–160 ka for the migration of Bison into greater North America. The Térapa deposit also contains a mixture of fossils from extralimital or extinct tropical animals and temperate animals. Constraining the age of the deposit is critical to interpret the paleontologic and paleoclimatologic implications of this unique Sonoran fossil locality. Three additional geochronological methods have been applied to this deposit (infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL), amino acid racemization (AAR), and radiocarbon) and the data from the original ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age were revisited. The IRSL data suggest that the impounding basalt flow and the sediments that abut it were emplaced 43 ka ago and that the oldest sediments were deposited shortly after. Two radiocarbon ages suggest the fossiliferous sediments were emplaced by 42 ka. Effective diagenetic temperatures inferred from the AAR results, combined with AAR data from a similar-age deposit in southern Arizona, are in accordance with the 40–43 ka age estimates. For the AAR results to corroborate the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age, the effective diagenetic temperature for the area would need to be approximately 3 °C, which is unrealistically low for northern Mexico. The new geochronological results suggest the Térapa deposit and fossils are 40–43 ka old. The anomalously old ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age for the impounding basalt is probably the result of low ⁴⁰Ar* concentrations and inherited ⁴⁰Ar.     

Using an Enhanced Dataset for Reassessing the Source Region of the 2003 Armer��a, Mexico Earthquake

We present a fresh look at the source region of the 22 January 2003 M _w 7.4 Armería earthquake, which occurred off the Pacific coast of the state of Colima, Mexico, near the town of Armería. The effects of this earthquake in the neighboring states of Colima and Jalisco were different and stronger than those of previous recent major earthquakes in the region. This earthquake and its aftershocks were recorded by two local telemetered seismograph networks (RESCO and RESJAL). From 22 January to 24 January 2003, no important seismicity was located on the plates interface, or within the Rivera Plate, and most epicenters were located west of the Armería River, which is the western border of the Colima Graben, and is located outside of the Colima Gap region. From 24 January to 31 January, the seismicity recorded by both networks showed a migration in depth, with an almost vertical offshore distribution between 4 and 24?km in depth. For this period, a seven-station portable digital seismograph network, equipped with three-component seismometers, was deployed in the epicentral area to study the aftershock sequence in detail. With this denser network more than 200 M _L?>?2.0 aftershocks were recorded. The aftershock foci were deeper than those recorded during the early period and most of them locate on a hypothetical 12° dipping interface between the Rivera and North American Plates. Composite focal mechanism solutions for the aftershocks located during both periods indicate a reverse fault character that changes with time. Analysis of the new dataset still indicates that the earthquake was a shallow intraplate event.