Assessing the Dynamics of Grassland Net Primary Productivity in Response to Climate Change at the Global Scale

Understanding the net primary productivity(NPP) of grassland is crucial to evaluate the terrestrial carbon cycle. In this study, we investigated the spatial distribution and the area of global grassland across the globe. Then, we used the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach(CASA) model to estimate global grassland NPP and explore the spatio-temporal variations of grassland NPP in response to climate change from 1982 to 2008. Results showed that the largest area of grassland distribution during the study period was in Asia(1737.23 × 104 km~2), while the grassland area in Europe was relatively small(202.83 × 10~4 km~2). Temporally, the total NPP increased with fluctuations from 1982 to 2008, with an annual increase rate of 0.03 Pg C/yr. The total NPP experienced a significant increasing trend from 1982 to 1995, while a decreasing trend was observed from 1996 to 2008. Spatially, the grassland NPP in South America and Africa were higher than the other regions, largely as a result of these regions are under warm and wet climatic conditions. The highest mean NPP was recorded for savannas(560.10 g C/(m~2·yr)), whereas the lowest was observed in open shrublands with an average NPP of 162.53 g C/(m~2·yr). The relationship between grassland NPP and annual mean temperature and annual precipitation(AMT, AP, respectively) varies with changes in AP, which indicates that, grassland NPP is more sensitive to precipitation than temperature.     

2002-2012年青藏高原积雪物候变化及其对气候的响应

积雪是地表最活跃的自然要素之一,其动态变化对气候、环境以及人类生活都产生了重要影响。本文利用MODIS积雪产品和IMS雪冰产品,首先通过Terra、Aqua双星合成和临近日合成去除MODIS积雪产品中的部分云像元,再与IMS融合,获取了青藏高原2002-2012年逐日无云积雪覆盖产品,并逐像元计算每个水文年的积雪覆盖日数（SCD）、积雪开始期（SCS）和积雪结束期（SCE）,分析了不同生态分区积雪的时空变化特征,以及积雪开始期和结束期与温度、降水的关系。结果表明：青藏高原积雪分布存在明显的空间差异,南部喜马拉雅山脉和念青唐古拉山地区以及西部帕米尔高原和喀喇昆仑山脉为SCD的2个高值区,年均积雪日数在200 d以上。18.1%的区域SCS表现出明显的提前趋势,主要集中在青藏高原中东部;羌塘高原南部、念青唐古拉山西段以及川西地区有显著推迟趋势,占高原面积的8.5%。23.2%的区域SCE显著推迟,主要集中在果洛那曲高寒区、昆仑山区和念青唐古拉山地区;而仅有6.9%的区域表现出提前趋势,主要分布在高原西南部。总体上,不同生态单元内积雪开始与结束期受温度、降水的影响差异很大,表现出不同的空间格局与演变趋势。     

Spatial Pattern of Cotton Yield Variability and Its Response to Climate Change in Cotton Belt of Pakistan

Cotton is a revenue source for cotton-producing countries; as the second-largest crop in Pakistan, it significantly contributes to its economy. Over the past few decades, cotton productivity has become unstable in Pakistan, and climate change is one of the main factors that impact cotton yield. Due to climate change, it becomes very important to understand the change trend and its impact on cotton yield at the regional level. Here, we investigate the relationship of standardized cotton yield var...     

The Role of Aga Khan Rural Support Programme in Rural Development in the Karakorum, Hindu Kush ＆ Himalayan Region： Examples from the Northern Mountainous Belt of Pakistan

Pakistan is predominantly a mountainous country where rural development activities are characterised by inconsistency, politically motivated short-term projects without proper feedback. Since the inception of the country, the top-down approach has been followed, and the same development plans that were formulated for the plain areas have been extended to the mountains without any modification. In doing so, neither the participation of the local communities was cared for, nor the mountain specificities were considered in the planning process. Moreover, the representation of the local inhabitants was improper and contradictory to the facts. This biased approach has been one of the main causes for the failure of development projects carried out by different agencies of the Government. Contrary to the perception of the state authorities, the mountain communities proved to be more open to accept new approaches and demonstrated the capacity and capability of being a dependable development partner. In this paper, a detailed account of the Aga Khan Rural Support Programme （AKRSP） has been presented to assess and evaluate the approach followed by this non-governmental organisation （NGO）, and the response of the local inhabitants as collaborators in the development process. The achievements of the AKRSP from project planning, implementation and monitoring can be adopted as a model for rural development not only in the plains, but also in the mountainous areas of the developing countries in the world.     

Shifting dynamics of nature,society and agriculture in the Hindu Kush Himalayas: Perspectives for future mountain development

Current approaches for sustainable mountain development have several persisting warning signals. Economic globalization, profitoriented market development, and infrastructure development have significantly altered traditional nature-society interactions, increased environmental pressures, and challenged agricultural sustainability in the mountains. Some of the effects of globalization could also be beneficial. Social differentiation and disintegration of mountain communities' have weakened their collective stakes on natural resources resulting in decline in initiatives such as community forestry, collective water management, domestication of rapidly disappearing herbal species, and balancing of economic and ecological concerns. Population growth, food insecurity, unemployment, and increasing economic gaps between rich and poor have led to out-migration of youth. Sustained action promoting ownership of new initiatives for rehabilitating degraded mountain landscapes through macro-level global/national initiatives, mountain specific planning and development efforts is severely lacking in many areas on the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Therefore, there is an urgent need for widening the scope of efforts directed to help mountain areas and communities, and a future thinking approach to enhance the sustainability of mountain areas as they are a valuable natural resource for humankind. This paper discusses the issues, opportunities, and provides suggestions for the future of mountain development.     

青藏高原月NDVI时空动态变化及其对气候变化的 响应

青藏高原脆弱的高寒植被对外界干扰十分敏感,使其成为研究植被对气候变化响应的理想区域之一。青藏高原气候变化剧烈,在较短的合成时间研究气候变化对植被的影响十分必要。因此,本文利用GIMMS NDVI时间序列数据集,研究了1982-2012年青藏高原生长季月尺度植被生长的时空动态变化,探讨了其与气温、降水量和日照时数等气候因子的响应关系。结果表明：在区域尺度上,除8月外,其他各月份植被均呈增加趋势,显著增加多发生在4-7月和9月;大部分月份的NDVI增加速率随着时段的延长显著减小,表明NDVI增加趋势放缓;在像元尺度上,月NDVI显著变化的区域多呈增加趋势,但显著减少范围的扩张多快于显著增加。4月和7月植被生长主要是受气温和日照时数共同作用,6月和9月受气温的控制,而8月则主要受降水量的影响。长时间序列NDVI数据集的出现为采用嵌套时段研究植被生长变化趋势奠定了前提,而植被活动变化趋势的持续性则有助于形象表征植被活动变化过程、深入理解植被对气候变化的响应和预测植被未来生长变化趋势。由此推测,青藏高原月NDVI未来增加趋势总体上趋于缓和,但在像元尺度显著变化的区域趋于增加。     

土地利用和气候变化对海河流域蒸散发时空变化的影响

蒸散发（ET）是水文能量循环和气候系统的关键环节,研究ET的时空变化特征及其响应土地利用和气候变化的驱动机制对于理清流域水资源和气候变化的关系具有重要的意义。本文基于MOD16/ET数据集定量分析了海河流域2000-2014年ET的时空变化特征,并结合时序气温降水数据和土地利用数据,采用相关分析方法定量探索了ET与气候因子的驱动力关系。结果表明：① 海河流域2000-2014年ET表现为较为显著的空间分布格局,呈现出北部和南部高、西北部和中东部低的分布特性。不同土地利用类型的多年ET呈林地>草地>耕地>其他类型的特征;② 2000-2014年海河流域年均ET波动范围为371.96~441.29 mm/a,多年ET的均值为398.69 mm/a,平均相对变化率为-0.41%,整体呈下降趋势;③ 多年月ET与气温和降水均呈单峰型周期性变化趋势,年内月ET呈单峰变化趋势;④ 春秋两季的ET与降水和气温的相关性明显高于其他季节,ET与气温和降水的平均相关系数是-0.17和0.37,表明降水对于ET的响应程度强于气温;⑤ 驱动分区结果表明海河流域ET受气候因子驱动的主要类型是降水驱动型和降水、气温共同驱动型;⑥ 海河流域耕地ET变化气候因子驱动模式主要是降水、气温共同驱动型;林地、草地的驱动模式主要气温驱动型和降水驱动型,其他土地利用类型的驱动模式主要是受其他因素驱动。该研究将对海河流域水资源开发管理和区域气候调节起到科学指导作用。     

南方亚热带季风区将乐县森林植被动态变化及其对气候变化的响应

在全球气候变化背景下,植被动态变化以及植被对气候变化的响应方式已经成为生态学和地理学领域的热点。本文对比分析了南方亚热带季风区将乐县不同类型森林植被对不同时间尺度的干旱响应的差别。基于2000-2017年MODIS-EVI数据及气象站点数据,用最大值合成法、趋势分析法以及相关分析法,分析了森林植被及气象因子的动态变化特征,并对比不同森林植被对气候变化响应的差别。研究表明：① 2000-2017年,研究区植被覆盖度、EVI和降水均显著增加,区域内湿度增加,森林长势渐趋良好;② EVI在生长季初期和末期与同期的降水、温度均显著正相关（P<0.1）,初期森林受降水因子的影响更大,末期受温度因子的影响大;③ 1-3月和周年的气候变化对森林的生长至关重要,长时间尺度的湿度增加对森林生长具有显著的促进作用,SPEI的时间尺度越长与EVI的相关性也越大;④ 针阔混交林与同期温度、降水的相关系数最高,并且与不同时间尺度的SPEI相关性均比较高,属于气候敏感型林型,在生产经营中要谨慎预防气候变化对该林型带来的伤害;⑤ 森林覆盖度变化与降水和SPEI_24的相关性极显著,长时间尺度的降水变化是影响森林植被覆盖率变化的重要因素之一。     

成都东部山丘区气候变化与生态现状对策研究

利用1959—2008年成都东部地区金堂县、双流县、新都县的气温、降水资料,用距平、累积距平、线性趋势分析了成都东部地区气温、降水的时空变化特征,并用滑动-t检验与MK检验分析了成都东部地区气温与降水的突变特征。结果显示：近50年来,成都东部地区气温明显升高,降水总体呈减少趋势,成都东部气候呈现暖干趋势。同时对成都市5个温度区进行温度湿度和绿化率关联分析,结果证明,无论是平均温度还是最高温度均随相应区域内绿地率、绿地覆盖率的增大而随之降低;而相对湿度随之升高。可见,增大绿化面积的旷达对环境降温增湿的作用十分显著。因此,在成都东部地区植树造林不仅能改善环境气候,更能创造巨大的生态经济效益。     

黄河三角洲人类干扰活动强度变化及其景观格局响应

本研究以湿地变化较为剧烈的黄河三角洲为研究对象,基于RS技术和GIS空间分析方法,利用人为干扰度模型,结合区域人工沟渠建设情况,从区域和局地两个尺度直观揭示人类干扰强度时空分异特征,并探究区域景观格局对人类干扰活动的响应,以期为黄河三角洲滨海湿地生态保护与人类活动调控提供决策支持。结果表明：① 1995-2015年现代黄河三角洲区域人为干扰度和人工沟渠密度均明显增加,空间分布呈现从西南部向东部、北部,自内陆向沿海的扩展趋势;② 随着人类活动强度增强,研究区自然湿地面积减少,区域景观多样性和空间异质性增加,景观整体连通性减弱,景观复杂性降低;③ 景观格局对人类干扰强度变化的响应关系呈现出地区和时间差异;人类干扰活动强度相对较低的保护区受人工沟渠建设的影响,也呈现出斑块团聚程度降低、景观多样性增加和景观复杂性降低的变化趋势;④ 人为干扰度指数和人工沟渠密度指标互为补充,互相印证,可以较为全面、客观地反映黄河三角洲地区人类干扰活动强度。     

全球海岸带多源土地利用/覆盖遥感分类产品一致性分析

多源土地利用/覆盖分类产品是陆地表层过程研究不可或缺的重要基础数据,而其一致性分析则是产品应用的前提和基础。本文基于类型面积偏差、类型面积相关、误差矩阵和类型空间混淆等方法,从面积一致性和空间一致性两方面分析了 5种土地利用/覆盖分类产品（MCD12Q1-2010、GlobCover2009、CCI-LC2010、FROM-GLC2010和GlobeLand30-2010）在全球海岸带区域的一致性。结果表明：① 各产品土地利用/覆盖类型的空间分布总体上表现出较强的一致性,但在细节上存在大面积不一致现象;② 各产品对全球海岸带土地利用/覆盖构成的描述基本一致,即以水体为主,林地和未利用地次之,耕地、草地和灌木地较少,湿地和人造地表相对最少,但在细节上存在面积偏差;③ 在产品组合中,MCD12Q1-2010/GlobCover2009的相关系数、总体精度和Kappa系数均最低,分别为0.8814、67.46%和0.5748,而GlobCover2009/CCI-LC2010的相关系数、总体精度和Kappa系数均最高,分别为0.9869、81.50%和0.7505;④ 5种产品两两对比,草地、灌木地和湿地的混淆程度最高,耕地和人造地表次之,林地和未利用地较低,水体最低;⑤ 全球海岸带有28.81%的土地具有较低的一致性,这些区域地类混淆现象较为严重,尤其是耕地、林地、草地、灌木地、湿地和未利用地之间的相互混淆对5种产品的一致性程度有直接影响。本文有望为海岸带研究在已有土地利用/覆盖数据源选择和使用等方面提供参考和建议。     

Response of Lakes to Climate Change in Xainza Basin Tibetan Plateau Using Multi-Mission Satellite Data from 1976 to 2008

Changes in the lake areas of Xainza basin in the past 33 years(1976 to 2008) were studied using Landsat data from Multispectral Scanners(1973-1977), Thematic Mapper(1989-1992, 2007-2009), and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus(1999-2002). The results indicated that lakes in the study area evidently expanded from 1976 to 2008, with total expansion of 1512.64 km2. The mean annual air temperature presented an upward trend with certain fluctuations from 1966 to 2008. The air temperature rise rates in the cold season(0.31°C/10a) were higher than those in the hot season(0.24°C/10a), in the Xainza station example. Precipitation exhibited evident seasonal differences. Mean annual precipitation in hot season is 281.48 mm and cold season is 32.66 mm from 1966 to 2008 in study area. Precipitation in the hot season was the major contributor to the increase in annual precipitation. Grey relational analysis(GRA) was used to study the response of lake areas to climatic factors. The mean air temperature and precipitation were selected as compared series, and the lake areas were regarded asthe reference series. The grey relational grade(GRG) between compared series and reference series were calculated through GRA. The results indicated that changes in lake areas were mainly affected by climatic factors in the hot season. Lakes in this region were classified into three grades, namely, Grades I, II, and III according to the recharge source and elevation. The GRGs of each series varied for different grade lakes: the area of Grade III lakes were the most relevant to the hot season factors, the GRGs of precipitation and air temperature were 0.7570 and 0.6606; followed by the Grade II lakes; Grade I lakes were more sensitive to the air temperature.     

Response of Vegetation Cover Change to Drought at Different Time-scales in the Beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Region,China

Dominated by an arid and semiarid continental climate, the Beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Region(BTSSR) is a typical ecologically fragile region with frequently occurring droughts. To provide information for regional vegetation protection and drought prevention, we assessed the relations between vegetation cover change(measured by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index,NDVI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI) at different time-scales, in different growth stag...     

Response of the North Pacific Oscillation to global warming in the models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report

Based on 22 of the climate models from phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, we investigate the ability of the models to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the wintertime North Pacific Oscillation(NPO), which is the second most important factor determining the wintertime sea level pressure field in simulations of the pre-industrial control climate, and evaluate the NPO response to the future most reasonable global warming scenario(the A1B scenario). We reveal that while most models simulate the geographic distribution and amplitude of the NPO pattern satisfactorily, only 13 models capture both features well. However, the temporal variability of the simulated NPO could not be significantly correlated with the observations. Further analysis indicates the weakened NPO intensity for a scenario of strong global warming is attributable to the reduced lower-tropospheric baroclinicity at mid-latitudes, which is anticipated to disrupt large-scale and low-frequency atmospheric variability, resulting in the diminished transfer of energy to the NPO, together with its northward shift.     

1982-2006年加纳植被覆盖时空变化及其气候影响

非洲陆地生态系统是气候变化的高敏感区,研究该区域植被覆盖变化及其控制因素,对深刻认识气候变化的影响具有重要意义。本文利用1982-2006年植被指数（NDVI）数据,研究位于非洲西部热带地区的加纳共和国植被覆盖的时空变化特征,结合同期的气温和降水量数据,分析其植被活动对气候变化的响应特征。研究结果表明,加纳86.4%的植被覆盖区NDVI在25 a间都呈现不同程度的增加趋势。20世纪80年代初和21世纪初这2个时期,NDVI值大于0.4的面积百分比呈增加趋势;NDVI值大于0.5的面积百分比从26%增加到38.2%;NDVI值在0.4-0.5之间的面积百分比从47.5%增加到51.9%。NDVI受降水量控制的区域占总区域面积的57.2%,而受气温控制的面积占总区域面积的42.8%。总的来看,加纳植被覆盖对降水量变化的敏感程度强于气温变化。     

黄河源区放牧家畜数量及空间分布无人机遥感调查

黄河源区拥有独特的生态系统和生物资源,是我国重要的江河水源涵养地和重要的生态屏障。近年来,放牧家畜数量的增加使该地区传统草地畜牧业面临过度放牧、草地退化、季节性失衡等发展难题。为科学掌握黄河源区放牧家畜的情况,本文以黄河源区的玛多县为研究区,应用无人机对玛多县放牧家畜（牦牛、藏羊和马）的数量和空间分布开展航拍调查。根据牦牛、藏羊和马的无人机图像解译标志库进行目视解译,采用5种方法估算玛多县放牧家畜的数量,利用选择指数分析家畜空间位置与环境因子的关系,结果表明：① 在冷季无人机航拍样带内,牦牛、藏羊和马的样带密度分别为4.12、7.34和0.06 只/km²。② 玛多县有牦牛7.08万头,藏羊10.22万只,马0.12万匹,经验证,估算牦牛、藏羊和马数量的误差分别为-0.93%、2.27%和-13.23%。③ 家畜对环境因子的选择倾向于坡度小于12°,草地覆盖度高于0.6,距居民点小于1 km,距水源小于 3 km,距公路大于3 km的区域。研究结果表明,无人机遥感技术在畜牧业方面有较大的应用潜力,为研究牧区放牧家畜的特征和草畜平衡情况提供新的思路。     

青藏高原兹格塘错流域50年来湖泊水量对气候变化响应的模拟研究

运用数值模拟建立青藏高原兹格塘错流域土壤、植被、气候等的空间和属性数据库;接着,借助分布式流域尺度水文模型(SWAT模型),对兹格塘错1956—2006年间的流量进行模拟实验;最后,反演50年来兹格塘错流域水文过程,测试流域温度、降水和蒸发组合的敏感因子对湖泊水量变化的效应,探讨50年来湖泊水量对气候变化的响应。模拟实验的边界条件设置为自然地形、土壤、植被覆盖,其中土壤资料包括有机质含量、粒径等理化参数。模拟结果表明:兹格塘错的年平均流量为6.3m3/s,流量高峰集中在8月至10月,并且由于融雪补给的关系,3月出现另一个流量高峰;模拟结果与遥感解译所得到的结果吻合较好。敏感实验表明:兹格塘错流域内温度、降水和蒸发组合的敏感因子实验具有高原特征,即高原湖泊的水文过程和湖泊流量变化有着较为敏感的响应关系;兹格塘错流量受降水的影响最大,随着降水的增加,流量有所增加;在温度升高的情况下,流域蒸发量增加速度大,兹格塘错流量增加的效应不明显,而在冷湿模式下,流域蒸发量降低,兹格塘错流量增加显著。     

Population growth and sustainability of common property resource management systems in the eastern Hindu Kush: The use of communal fodder resources in Mehlp Valley, North Pakistan

In common property studies, increasing number of users has been considered as a major threat for the long-term sustainability of natural resources. This perception has been true in a few cases. However, the 40-years empirical research conducted in a variety of environmental settings, reveals that population pressure is not the only factor responsible for the degradation of natural resources. In remote areas, where the local inhabitants highly depend on available natural resources for subsistence livelihood, the economically important resources are kept under different ownership regimes. The local inhabitants have established autochthonous institutions, and formulated rules and regulations for proper management of these resources. In this paper an attempt has been made to explore the response of a small fodder user community to the increasing population. For this purpose a micro-level study has been conducted in a remote mountain environment in the eastern Hindu Kush. For this research, data has been collected through fieldwork and focus group discussion. The results of this study reveal that fodder user communities have responded very well to the problem of population pressure. To maintain equity and long-term sustainability they have adopted a number of strategies including changing the ownership, and a resource kept under private ownership at the time of low population has been changed to a common property with increase in population. Based on this study it can be concluded that in mountainous areas and fragile environment the local inhabitant have both the capacity and capability to change their behaviour with regard to changing resource productivity as well as increasing number of users, and this situation does not always lead to the tragedy of commons.