Seismic collapse risk of precast industrial buildings with strong connections

A systematic seismic risk study has been performed on some typical precast industrial buildings that consists of assemblages of cantilever columns with high shear‐span ratios connected to an essentially rigid roof system with strong pinned connections. These buildings were designed according to the requirements of Eurocode 8. The numerical models and procedures were modified in order to address the particular characteristics of the analyzed system. They were also verified by pseudo‐dynamic and cyclic tests of full‐scale large buildings. The intensity measure (IM)‐based solution strategy described in the PEER methodology was used to estimate the seismic collapse risk in terms of peak ground acceleration capacity and the probability of exceeding the global collapse limit state. The effect of the uncertainty in the model parameters on the dispersion of collapse capacity was investigated in depth. Reasonable seismic safety (as proposed by the Joint Committee on Structural Safety) was demonstrated for all the regular single‐storey precast industrial buildings addressed in this study. However, if the flexural strength required by EC8 was exactly matched, and the additional strength, which results from minimum longitudinal reinforcement, was disregarded as well as large dispersion in records was considered, the seismic risk might in some cases exceed the acceptable limits. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Precast industrial buildings in Southern Europe: loss of support at frictional beam-to-column connections under seismic actions

This paper presents the evaluation of the loss-of-support conditions in frictional beam-to-column connections of industrial precast concrete buildings under seismic actions. This type of connection is widespread throughout Southern Europe in non-seismically designed industrial precast buildings. First, geometric properties of industrial precast buildings and of the frictional beam-to-column connections, together with reference values for the friction coefficient, are reviewed. Then, earthquake time histories taken from the European Strong-Motion sets and recordings of the two major shocks of the 2012 Emilia-Romagna events are presented and discussed showing the importance of the vertical component. Two dynamic models of increasing complexity are used to ascertain loss-of-support conditions under seismic action. The first model is an elastic one, representing a single frame of the industrial buildings. Results are obtained according to: (1) 2D analyses, disregarding the time correlation between the response peaks along the horizontal and vertical directions, (2) 2D analyses taking into account time correlation, and (3) 3D analyses to evaluate also directionality effects. The second model is a 2D non-linear planar frame developed within the OpenSees framework. Results show that simplified (linear) models are a good proxy to more refined (non-linear) ones. However, one must resort to non-linear models if differential displacements between beam and column are of interest. The non-linear numerical investigations show that friction coefficient, horizontal and vertical periods and damping, and column reinforcement ratio are the key variables in estimating the loss-of-support conditions.     

Horizontal cladding panels: in-plane seismic performance in precast concrete buildings

The paper investigates the in-plane performance of horizontal precast reinforced concrete cladding panels, typically adopted in one-storey precast industrial and commercial buildings. Starting from in-field observations of cladding panels failures in recent earthquakes, the seismic performance of typical connections is evaluated by means of experimental tests on full-scale panels under quasi-static cyclic loading. The failure mechanisms highlight the vulnerability of such connections to relative displacements and, therefore, the need to accurately evaluate the connections displacement demand and capacity. An analytical model is developed to describe the force–displacement relationship of the considered connections and compared to the experimental results. In order to determine the seismic vulnerability of such connections and provide design recommendations, linear and nonlinear analyses are conducted taking as reference a precast concrete structure resembling an industrial precast building. The results of the analyses show the importance of a correct estimation of the column’s lateral stiffness in the design process and how an improper erection procedure leads to a premature failure of such connections.     

Earthquake loss assessment of precast RC industrial structures in Tuscany (Italy)

A seismic loss assessment for structural, non-structural, contents and business interruption is presented for precast reinforced concrete industrial buildings located in Italy. The correlation that exists between the performances of such spatially distributed buildings (i.e. spatial correlation) given a seismic event should be considered when estimating losses at a local or regional level. Loss assessment is thus performed herein using the OpenQuake-engine, an open-source tool capable of including the spatial correlation of ground-motion residuals and uncertainty in building vulnerability. The annual probability of structural collapse is employed as an initial risk measure, in which each industrial facility is considered as an individual asset. Then the economic loss for 300 buildings in the province of Arezzo is computed using a probabilistic event-based risk approach and presented in terms of annual average losses and losses at given annual rates of exceedance. The impact of the losses due to business interruption is also explored, and the extent of customer base is used as a prioritization metric for risk mitigation. It is observed that risk reduction should be applied as a priority in the facilities that are compromising the current level of acceptable risk, and the results show that business interruption has a significant contribution for economic losses, whose repercussions go beyond the regional level. Although this application is confined to the province of Arezzo, the same methodology can be used in other regions in Italy with similar building stock.     

城市供水管网在地震时的连通可靠性分析

考虑地震作用效应和管道抗力的随机特性,建立了埋地管道单元的概率预测模型,评估其在地震时的震害状态。把供水管网系统简化为边权有向网络图,通过Monte Carlo随机模拟过程,近似再现管网中各管段的破坏状态,进而分别结合图论理论方法和模糊关系矩阵法,对管网进行连通可靠性分析。由于Monte Carlo模拟算法是以管网各节点与水源点处于连通状态的近似频率计算来代替精确概率分析,为获得稳定的计算结果,对所用算例进行了5000次模拟。算例分析表明,基于图论方法和模糊关系矩阵法得到的管网连通可靠性结果基本相等。     

Speedup of post earthquake community recovery: the case of precast industrial buildings after the Emilia 2012 earthquake

The Emilia, May–July 2012, earthquake hit a highly industrialized area, where some tens thousands industrial buldings, mainly single storey precast structures, are located. Due to the likelihood of strong after shocks and the high vulnerability of these structures, the authorities first asked for a generalized seismic retrofit after the strong shakings of May 20th. In order to accelerate community recovery, this requirement was later loosened, leaving out the buildings which had undergone a strong enough shaking without any damage; the strong enough shaking was defined with reference to the ultimate limit state design earthquake. To the authors’ knowledge, it is the first time that the information on the earthquake intensity and structural damage is used for such a large scale post earthquake simplified safety assessment. In short, the earthquake was used as large experimental test. This paper shows the details of the models and computations made to identify the industrial buildings which have been considered earthquake tested and therefore not compelled to mandatory seismic retrofit. Since earthquake indirect (e.g. due to economic halt) costs may be as large the direct ones, or even larger, it is believed that this method may considerably lower the earthquake total costs and speed up the social and economic recovery of a community.     

考虑结构-土-结构相互作用的区域建筑群震害评估

建筑群震害评估计算对城市区域地震损失评估和震后快速援助救灾有着重要意义。考虑到地震中建筑物相互作用对震害的影响,进行考虑结构间相互作用的区域建筑群震害评估计算。在已有的基于结构—土—结构动力相互作用(SSSI)分析的简化离散模型基础上,扣除基础转动对输出响应的影响,引入基础上部建筑结构非线性多自由度模型,得到考虑SSSI的简化的非线性多自由度离散模型,建立考虑SSSI的区域建筑群震害评估方法。以四川大学望江校区的建筑群在汶川地震中的震害评估为例,采用该方法对该校区建筑群在汶川地震中的震害进行评估计算。同时,也对未考虑SSSI情况下的该校区建筑群震害进行计算。运用HAZUS对建筑群在汶川地震中的震害进行计算。通过对比分析实际震害调查数据、HAZUS震害计算结果和本文建筑群震害计算结果可知,相比HAZUS震害计算结果,本文建筑群震害计算结果更接近实际震害调查数据;与未考虑SSSI的建筑群震害计算结果相比,考虑SSSI的建筑群震害计算结果精确度更高,更能反映建筑群的实际震害情况。     

Capacity, fragility and damage in reinforced concrete buildings: a probabilistic approach

The main goals of this article are to analyze the use of simplified deterministic nonlinear static procedures for assessing the seismic response of buildings and to evaluate the influence that the uncertainties in the mechanical properties of the materials and in the features of the seismic actions have in the uncertainties of the structural response. A reinforced concrete building is used as a guiding case study. In the calculation of the expected spectral displacement, deterministic nonlinear static methods are simple and straightforward. For not severe earthquakes these approaches lead to somewhat conservative but adequate results when compared to more sophisticated procedures involving nonlinear dynamic analyses. Concerning the probabilistic assessment, the strength properties of the materials, concrete and steel, and the seismic action are considered as random variables. The Monte Carlo method is then used to analyze the structural response of the building. The obtained results show that significant uncertainties are expected; uncertainties in the structural response increase with the severity of the seismic actions. The major influence in the randomness of the structural response comes from the randomness of the seismic action. A useful example for selected earthquake scenarios is used to illustrate the applicability of the probabilistic approach for assessing expected damage and risk. An important conclusion of this work is the need of broaching the fragility of the buildings and expected damage assessment issues from a probabilistic perspective.     

城市典型建筑的地震损失预测方法I：结构易损性分析

地震作用下结构的易损性分析是地震灾害损失预测方法的重要组成部分。本文针对多层砌体房屋结构、排架结构和多层钢筋混凝土结构等3种城市典型建筑，首先给出了该类单体建筑的地震结构易损性分析方法，然后对群体建筑的地震易损性分析方法，以及群体建筑的易损性分类方法进行了探讨，为城市典型建筑的地震灾害损失预测和评估提供参考，并为宁波市抗震防灾规划的地震损失预测提供基础。     

城市典型建筑的地震损失预测方法Ⅰ: 结构易损性分析

地震作用下结构的易损性分析是地震灾害损失预测方法的重要组成部分。本文针对多层砌体房屋结构、排架结构和多层钢筋混凝土结构等3种城市典型建筑,首先给出了该类单体建筑的地震结构易损性分析方法,然后对群体建筑的地震易损性分析方法,以及群体建筑的易损性分类方法进行了探讨,为城市典型建筑的地震灾害损失预测和评估提供参考,并为宁波市抗震防灾规划的地震损失预测提供基础。     

基于改进遗传算法优化BP神经网络的单体建筑物震害评估方法

结合机器学习算法最新研究进展,提出一种基于改进遗传算法优化BP神经网络的单体建筑物震害评估方法。以四川地区为例,通过改进遗传算法优化BP神经网络建立评估模型,输出评估区域内不同结构类型单体建筑物在各震害影响因素综合作用下的破坏等级,并通过实际算例分析对模型的有效性进行验证。结果表明,该方法可快速、准确地评估单体建筑物震害情况。     

Estimation and propagation of volcanic source parameter uncertainty in an ash transport and dispersal model: application to the Eyjafjallajokull plume of 14–16 April 2010

Data on source conditions for the 14 April 2010 paroxysmal phase of the Eyjafjallaj?kull eruption, Iceland, have been used as inputs to a trajectory-based eruption column model, bent. This model has in turn been adapted to generate output suitable as input to the volcanic ash transport and dispersal model, puff, which was used to propagate the paroxysmal ash cloud toward and over Europe over the following days. Some of the source parameters, specifically vent radius, vent source velocity, mean grain size of ejecta, and standard deviation of ejecta grain size have been assigned probability distributions based on our lack of knowledge of exact conditions at the source. These probability distributions for the input variables have been sampled in a Monte Carlo fashion using a technique that yields what we herein call the polynomial chaos quadrature weighted estimate (PCQWE) of output parameters from the ash transport and dispersal model. The advantage of PCQWE over Monte Carlo is that since it intelligently samples the input parameter space, fewer model runs are needed to yield estimates of moments and probabilities for the output variables. At each of these sample points for the input variables, a model run is performed. Output moments and probabilities are then computed by properly summing the weighted values of the output parameters of interest. Use of a computational eruption column model coupled with known weather conditions as given by radiosonde data gathered near the vent allows us to estimate that initial mass eruption rate on 14 April 2010 may have been as high as 10⁸?kg/s and was almost certainly above 10⁷?kg/s. This estimate is consistent with the probabilistic envelope computed by PCQWE for the downwind plume. The results furthermore show that statistical moments and probabilities can be computed in a reasonable time by using 9⁴?=?6,561 PCQWE model runs as opposed to millions of model runs that might be required by standard Monte Carlo techniques. The output mean ash cloud height plus three standard deviations??encompassing c. 99.7?% of the probability mass??compares well with four-dimensional ash cloud position as retrieved from Meteosat-9 SEVIRI data for 16 April 2010 as the ash cloud drifted over north-central Europe. Finally, the ability to compute statistical moments and probabilities may allow for the better separation of science and decision-making, by making it possible for scientists to better focus on error reduction and decision makers to focus on ??drawing the line?? for risk assessment.     

Probabilistic seismic assessment of multistory precast concrete frames exposed to corrosion

Seismic design of concrete structures is currently based on time-invariant capacity design criteria which do not account for environmental hazards. The significant progressive decay of strength and ductility of concrete structures exposed to damage, in particular due to reinforcing steel corrosion, shows that this approach should be revised to consider the deterioration over time of the seismic performance. This is important also for precast systems, for which most of structural members are often directly exposed to the atmosphere and environmental aggressiveness. This paper presents a probabilistic approach for the lifetime assessment of seismic performance of concrete structures considering the interaction of seismic and environmental hazards. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is shown by its application to multistory precast buildings exposed to corrosion. The results show that structures designed for the same seismic action could have different lifetime seismic performance depending on the environmental exposure. These results emphasize the importance of a life-cycle approach to both seismic assessment of existing buildings and seismic design of new structures, and indicate that capacity design criteria need to be properly revised to consider the severity of the environmental exposure.     

基于城市抗震弹塑性分析的我国主要城市建筑地震风险评估

全国尺度的城市建筑地震风险评估对城市防震减灾工作有着重要意义。本文根据全国人口普查和城市统计年鉴等给出的宏观指标建立城市建筑数据库,通过GEAR1方法(Global earthquake activity rate model 1)和第五代中国地震动参数区划图给出具体场地的地面运动强度,通过地面坡度与剪切波速的对应关系确定的场地类别来考虑地震动输入,采用城市抗震弹塑性分析方法建立建筑分析模型,通过地震经济损失风险指标和建筑严重破坏和倒塌风险作为风险评价指标,给出中国大陆主要城市建筑地震风险分布图。结果分析表明,本文方法可以基于可公开获取的数据预测全国不同城市的建筑震害风险;根据第五代地震动参数区划图给出的地面强度,地震经济损失高风险区主要是设防加速度0.3g以上地区;考虑城市人口、GDP因素后,中、东部城市因人口和财富密度较高,建筑地震风险增加明显;不同地震动选波对经济损失风险影响较小,而对倒塌风险影响较大。本文分析方法可以为城市建筑地震风险分析提供相关参考。     

Joint Monte Carlo and possibilistic simulation for flood damage assessment

A joint Monte Carlo and fuzzy possibilistic simulation (MC-FPS) approach was proposed for flood risk assessment. Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate parameter uncertainties associated with inundation modeling, and fuzzy vertex analysis was applied for promulgating human-induced uncertainty in flood damage estimation. A study case was selected to show how to apply the proposed method. The results indicate that the outputs from MC-FPS would present as fuzzy flood damage estimate and probabilistic-possibilistic damage contour maps. The stochastic uncertainty in the flood inundation model and fuzziness in the depth-damage functions derivation would cause similar levels of influence on the final flood damage estimate. Under the worst scenario (i.e. a combined probabilistic and possibilistic uncertainty), the estimated flood damage could be 2.4 times higher than that computed from conventional deterministic approach; considering only the pure stochastic effect, the flood loss would be 1.4 times higher. It was also indicated that uncertainty in the flood inundation modeling has a major influence on the standard deviation of the simulated damage, and that in the damage-depth function has more notable impact on the mean of the fitted distributions. Through applying MC-FPS, rich information could be derived under various α-cut levels and cumulative probabilities, and it forms an important basis for supporting rational decision making for flood risk management under complex uncertainties.     

城市群地震灾害风险评估方法的一点探索

基于粤港澳大湾区地震灾害风险评估的初步成果,分析了湾区城市群地震环境、承灾体分布和场地特点,提出了两种确定地震输入的设定地震原则,即潜在震源区设定地震原则和最大风险设定地震原则,按照这两种原则可以更加准确地进行城市群地震灾害风险评估。在前人工作的基础上,提出了考虑场地条件影响的地震灾害风险表达式,探索了适合三维模拟非一致激励地震动输入的建筑物和生命线工程灾害风险评估方法,提出了建筑物和生命线工程灾害风险评估中考虑场地影响的思路,为客观地评估城市群地震灾害和损失风险提出了可参考的建议。      

基于BP神经网络模型的多层砖房震害预测方法

针对传统的基于地震烈度的建筑物震害预测方法的不足,本文以地震动峰值加速度作为建筑物震害预测的地震动指标,结合几次大地震中多层砖房的震害实例,提出了一种基于BP神经网络模型的建筑物震害预测方法,模型的输入为反映结构抗震性能的各类物理参数,输出为给定地震动峰值加速度下建筑物破坏状态的概率。研究表明:基于BP网络模型的多层砖房的震害预测结果与震害实例的实际情况比较吻合,本文的思路和方法可推广于其他不同类型的建筑结构的震害预测。     

川南地区砖混结构房屋典型震害及地震易损性研究

以川南地区为研究区,并以在建造方式上具有明显当地地域特征的砖混结构房屋为研究对象,结合砖混结构房屋建造特点及川南历史地震(如长宁6.0级地震)震害调查结果等,分析砖混结构房屋典型震害特征,统计其在不同烈度下不同破坏等级的比例,采用经验分析法得到初步的易损性矩阵。在此基础上,针对因样本局限性造成的结构在高烈度下破坏比例不全,使实际易损性矩阵缺失的问题,通过插值法,推算高烈度下的破坏比例,补全经验易损性矩阵,拟合出易损性曲线,建立以震害统计为主、数值模拟为辅的砖混结构易损性分析模型;并基于平均震害指数对比分析,对易损性分析的可靠性进行检验。结果表明,构建的易损性矩阵能客观反映川南地区砖混结构房屋的抗震能力,对开展震害预测、灾害损失评估及震害风险评估等工作具有实际应用价值。     

Cyclic response of slender RC columns typical of precast industrial buildings

The cyclic behaviour of slender cantilever columns in full-scale models of precast industrial buildings, designed by Eurocode 8, was studied experimentally and analytically. The shear span ratio of the columns was 12.5, which is more than allowed by Eurocode 8 for columns in frame structures (10). High deformability and a large deformation capacity (8%~drift) of the columns was observed. A lumped plasticity model was used in the analysis. In the paper the observed behaviour of the models has been compared with the predicted behaviour obtained by several empirically based models and procedures. It was observed that these models, which were developed for much lower shear span ratios (2–6), were not applicable for the analyzed very slender columns without appropriate additional considerations and modifications. In the case of such columns the yield drift is dominated by the flexural mode (it is practically proportional to the height of the column) and the ultimate drift under cyclic loading conditions is only slightly dependent on the shear span (indicating that the ratio of the equivalent length of the plastic hinge to the height of the column decreases with the increasing shear span). An appropriately modified lumped plasticity model incorporating in-cycle and repeated-cycle strength deterioration was chosen for future use in performance-based design and seismic risk studies.