京津冀站点风温湿要素的机器学习订正方法

基于线性回归方法、梯度提升回归方法(GBRT方法)、XGBoost方法和堆叠集成学习方法(Stacking方法)4种机器学习方法,采用误差分析建模思路,针对北京城市气象研究院研发的睿图-睿思系统对2020年12月—2021年11月所有起报时次未来3～12 h的2 m温度、2 m相对湿度、10 m风速以及10 m风向4种气象要素预报,开展京津冀复杂地形下的站点预报误差订正技术研究及试验应用。结果表明:基于预报误差分析构建的4种订正模型中,由于Stacking方法集成了前3种方法的优势,在4个季节的4种气象要素订正中均表现最佳,其他3种单一机器学习方法试验中,XGBoost方法表现最佳,其后依次为GBRT方法、线性回归方法,但均对预报准确率有明显的正向提升效果。总体上,基于机器学习方法构建的预报误差订正模型可有效降低系统原始预报误差,有助于进一步提升复杂地形下站点客观释用产品的预报准确性。     

辅助模型辨识方法(5):最小二乘辨识

借助于辅助模型辨识思想,针对白噪声干扰的输入非线性有限脉冲响应系统,研究了辅助模型最小二乘辨识方法、辅助模型多新息最小二乘辨识方法、变递推间隔辅助模型最小二乘辨识方法、变递推间隔辅助模型多新息最小二乘辨识方法、等递推间隔辅助模型多新息最小二乘辨识方法,以及有限数据窗最小二乘辨识方法,包括引入加权因子（加权矩阵）、遗忘因子得到的一些相应辨识方法.     

洋面动量、感热和潜热通量计算的研究

整体传输公式是一种常用的计算洋面海气通量的方法。在作气候平均计算时,存在两种平均方法:方法一F_1=AB及方法二F_2=AB。显然,方法一是合理的,而方法二是对方法一的近似。本文利用COADS资料针对不同的平均时间计算分析了方法二对方法一的近似程度,结果表明:利用方法二计算长期气候平均,平滑时间超过5天则对计算结果必须进行订正;对感热和潜热通量,月平均方法二在20％的精度内可代替方法一,而旬平均方法二则可在10％的精度内代替方法一;动量通量月平均和旬平均精度分别为40％和20％。因此方法二在计算月平均动量通量时必须作订正,或直接用方法一进行计算,本文同时计算比较了1972年(E1 Nino年)和1975年(非E1 Nino年)太平洋洋面的各项能量及总能量收支,发现1972年洋面能量收支年变化幅度比1975年小得多,其差别主要决定于感热和潜热的变化。     

医疗气象学研究方法进展

综述了近年来国内外有关医疗气象的研究方法,特别是介绍了统计学方法（相关分析和回归分析方法、时间序列方法）,流行病学方法（描述性研究方法、队列研究方法、病例对照和实验流行病学研究方法）,毒理学方法（动物实验、细胞分子实验）,以及用这些方法所得出的研究结果。对今后医疗气象的研究进行了展望,指出应进一步加强气象与医疗两个学科之间的合作,增强机理方面的研究。利用气象条件对疾病影响的机理性研究结果为医疗气象预报做好服务。     

基于空间回归的B样条拟合在地面气温资料质量控制中的应用

将B样条拟合算法引入到地面气温资料的质量控制当中,在分析地面气温资料空间相关性的基础上,提出一种基于空间回归的B样条拟合地面气温资料质量控制方法(SRT_BSF方法)。为了检验SRT_BSF方法的有效性及适应性,利用SRT_BSF方法对多个场景地面气温资料进行质量控制,并与反距离加权方法(IDW方法)和空间回归方法(SRT方法)进行比较分析。试验结果表明,SRT_BSF方法相对于IDW方法和SRT方法更能有效地标记出地面气温资料中的存疑数据,同时多组独立案例的分析结果说明SRT_BSF方法具有更好的稳定性和适用性。      

气候变迁下的古雷电印象浅析

探讨和总结了古雷电研究的4种方法:①地质记录中的古气候标志方法;②氧同位素测量古温度方法;③冰川冰期与气候冷暖方法;④史料记载的研究方法。应用这4种方法分别对史前气候变迁下的古雷电进行描述,然后再从史料记载中,浓缩了古雷电的记录,分析了古雷电印象。     

基于瞬时无功功率理论的电流高次谐波检测方法研究

介绍了基于瞬时无功功率理论的谐波检测方法原理,通过对基于瞬时无功功率理论的ｉｐｉｑ检测方法在电流谐波检测应用中的分析研究,在ｉｐｉｑ 检测方法的基础上,提出了一种适于电流高次谐波检测的改进ｉｐｉｑ检测方法．这种方法通过在原检测方法中补加上负序分量检测环节,可检测出电流高次谐波的正序和负序分量,进而实现电流高次谐波的检测．最后,通过仿真实验表明了改进的方法对电流高次谐波的检测比原方法具有更好的准确性,更适于对具体的高次谐波进行检测．     

奥运气象资料管理系统中SCRUM方法应用

引言 软件质量和生产率是软件工程的两个核心目标。敏捷软件开发方法（以下简称敏捷方法）统称轻载方法,以区别于传统的软件开发方法（又称重载方法）。目前常见的敏捷方法有Extreme Program—ming（简称XP）、SCRUM、Crystal、Adaptive Software Development（ASD）,     

多准则模糊决策方法在短期预报中的应用

应用多准则模糊决策方法，把６—９月份多种短期预报方法以各种降水量级及总的预报准确率作为评价条件，对每种预报方法做出总的评价，进行最佳预报方法排序，作出最终量级决策预报     

土壤水分遥感监测研究进展

用遥感技术进行土壤水分监测已有30多年的历史,国内外学者在此领域做了不少的探索和研究。通过分析各种遥感土壤水分监测方法的特点,将其归纳为：基于土壤热惯量的方法、基于植被指数的方法、基于温度和植被指数的方法、基于植被蒸散的方法,以及基于微波遥感的方法等五类,分别介绍了各类土壤水分监测方法的提出及其发展、演变,同时也提出了土壤水分遥感监测在实际运用中仍然存在的问题。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

Analysis of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Characteristics over the Arctic Ocean Using the Aircraft and GPS Soundings

正ERRATUM to: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4(2011), 124-130 On page 126 of the printed edition (Issue 2, Volume 4), Fig. 2 was a wrong figure because the contact author made mistake giving the wrong one. The corrected edition has been updated on our website. The editorial office is sincerely sorry for any     

Index to Vol.31

正AN Junling;see LI Ying et al.;(5),1221—1232AN Junling;see QU Yu et al.;(4),787-800AN Junling;see WANG Feng et al.;(6),1331-1342Ania POLOMSKA-HARLICK;see Jieshun ZHU et al.;(4),743-754Baek-Min KIM;see Seong-Joong KIM et al.;(4),863-878BAI Tao;see LI Gang et al.;(1),66-84BAO Qing;see YANG Jing et al.;(5),1147—1156BEI Naifang;     

Information for Contributors

正Journal of Meteorological Research is an international academic journal in atmospheric sciences edited and published by Acta Meteorologica Sinica Press,sponsored by the Chinese Meteorological Society.It has been acting as a bridge of academic exchange between Chinese and foreign meteorologists and aiming at introduction of the current advancements in atmospheric sciences in China.The journal columns include Articles.Note and Correspondence,and research letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome.