Automated Estimation of Seismic Shaking Intensity from Instrumental Data in Quasi-Real-time Mode and Its Use in the Operation of the of Seismic Early Warning Service in the Kamchatka Region

Early warning systems are becoming increasingly important in the modern world. These systems combine several components: predictive systems (For example, tsunami warning systems), earthquake early warning systems, emergency message services, and systems of seismic damage monitoring. Information about shaking intensity becomes especially important in the case of a strong earthquake occurrence. These data are necessary for planning emergency rescue operations, but they are difficult to collect in a natural disasters situation because of possible communication problems. Application of data on instrumental seismic intensity may make it possible to solve this problem. Early warning systems predicting seismic intensity distributions just after the occurrence of an earthquake have already been developed in many seismically active regions of the world. Such a system also needs to be implemented in Kamchatka, where the strongest earthquakes can produce extremely high values of strong motion acceleration. As a result of the development of a system for seismological observation in Kamchatka, a unified specialized system for collection, transmission, archiving, and processing of seismic information was created. Seismological observations in Kamchatka were significantly improved with the update of the tsunami warning service in 2006–2011. As a result, a network of strong motion stations is currently operating in Kamchatka and can serve as a basis for creating a quasi-real-time seismic early warning system under the auspices the Kamchatka Branch of the Geophysical Survey, Russian Academy of Sciences (KB GS RAS). It uses data from strong motion stations to estimate the instrumental seismic intensity in quasi-real-time mode and visualizes the results. During the operational period while the service is being intensively used in the framework of the Seismic Early Warning Reports Tsunami Warning Service in the Kamchatka and Sakhalin branches of the GS RAS for real-time warning of interested parties about the shaking intensities at observation points, the technology implemented in this service has proved highly informative. In total, 75 messages on instrumental intensity in various places of Kamchatka krai and the northern Kuril Islands (Paramushir Islands) have been sent since the service was commissioned at the end of 2014. The currently operating version of the service has proved its informativeness and applicability for special departments of the Emergency Situations Ministry. In addition, real-time warning has improved coordination between the departments of KB GS RAS, and the results of this system are being used in a number of basic research projects. Further development of the service is related to the creation of denser instrumental networks to record strong ground motions and the transition to automatic decision-making and message sending.     

The VolSatView information system for Monitoring the Volcanic Activity in Kamchatka and on the Kuril Islands

Kamchatka and the Kuril Islands are home to 36 active volcanoes with yearly explosive eruptions that eject ash to heights of 8 to 15 km above sea level, posing hazards to jet planes. In order to reduce the risk of planes colliding with ash clouds in the north Pacific, the KVERT team affiliated with the Institute of Volcanology and Seismology of the Far East Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IV&S FEB RAS) has conducted daily satellite-based monitoring of Kamchatka volcanoes since 2002. Specialists at the IV&S FEB RAS, Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (SRI RAS), the Computing Center of the Far East Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (CC FEB RAS), and the Far East Planeta Center of Space Hydrometeorology Research (FEPC SHR) have developed, introduced into practice, and were continuing to refine the VolSatView information system for Monitoring of Volcanic Activity in Kamchatka and on the Kuril Islands during the 2011–2015 period. This system enables integrated processing of various satellite data, as well as of weather and land-based information for continuous monitoring and investigation of volcanic activity in the Kuril–Kamchatka region. No other information system worldwide offers the abilities that the Vol-SatView has for studies of volcanoes. This paper shows the main abilities of the application of VolSatView for routine monitoring and retrospective analysis of volcanic activity in Kamchatka and on the Kuril Islands.     

Sediment Yield of Kamchatka Krai Rivers into the Pacific Ocean and the Seas of Bering and Okhotsk

Sediment yield of Kamchatka Krai rivers into the Pacific Ocean and the seas of Bering and Okhotsk, is evaluated, including that from the drainage basins that are not covered by regular observations. Regression dependences of specific suspended sediment yield (SSSY) on factors determining it were constructed for erosion regions identified in Kamchatka Krai. The total average many-year yield of suspended sediments of Kamchatka Krai rivers into the Pacific is 11.4 × 10⁶ t/year, 73.9% of which is transported by rivers of the eastern coast and 26.1%, by those of the western coast. Among other factors, such distribution is attributed to the location of the majority of volcanoes on Kamchatka eastern coast. About one third of all sediments transported from Kamchatka Krai territory is discharged by the two largest rivers in the region, i.e., the Penzhina and Kamchatka.     

Petropavlovsk base seismic station for the tsunami warning service

Hardware and software are developed for the first base seismic station in the modernized seismic subsystem for tsunami warning on Kamchatka. The station is formed as a seismic array. The structure of the equipment and its communication systems are described. The station is introduced into experimental operation. The first results of recording of a local strong earthquake at points of the Petropavlovsk station are discussed.     

The development of the system of integrated instrumental monitoring of volcanoes in the Far East Region

This work presents the project of the first stage of implementation of the integrated instrumental system of volcanic activity monitoring in Kamchatka and the Kuril Islands. The system of monitoring was designed for the purpose of ensuring public safety, aviation safety, and reducing economic losses caused by volcanic eruptions. The most active and dangerous volcanoes in Kamchatka (North and Avacha groups of volcanoes) and the Kuril Islands (volcanoes on the islands of Kunashir and Paramushir) are of first priority for monitoring. For this purpose, special observation points are planned to be installed on the volcanoes. The system of monitoring will include a complex of observations (broadband seismic station with a large dynamic range, tiltmeter, devices for gas, acoustic, and electromagnetic observations, and video camera). All the data will be passed to information processing centers in real time. New methods and algorithms of automatic and automated identification of the volcanic activity level and the probabilistic volcano hazard assessment have been developed.     

New mineral species in products of fumarole activity of the Great Tolbachik Fissure Eruption

A summary is given and some physical properties and chemistry are described for new natural compounds of seven different classes from the deposits of fumaroles of the Great Tolbachik Fissure Eruption (1975?C1976, Kamchatka), which were determined on the basis of mineralogical and crystal chemistry studies.     

Numerical 3D modeling of the magnetotelluric field in Kamchatka

We consider the key features in the responses of magnetic tippers and MTS curves to the sharp contrast in electric conductivity at the interface between the land and the sea waters of the Sea of Okhotsk and the Pacific bounding Kamchatka. The zones with different intensity of the coast effect are revealed. Stronger manifestations of the effect are found to occur in the East Kamchatka, which is related to the induction effects of the electric currents concentrated in the Kuril-Kamchatka trench. Indentation of the coastline resulted in the appearance of three-dimensional (3D) effects in the magnetotelluric field of the eastern Kamchatka. These effects in the variations of the geomagnetic field are vanishing with an increasing period, giving room to low-frequency effects in the MT field, which are associated with the flow of electric currents around Kamchatka (the around-flow effect). It is shown that the transverse MTS curves over the entire region of Kamchatka suffer from the S effect at low frequencies and do not characterize the deep geoelectric structure. Only in the middle segments of the West and Central Kamchatka, the longitudinal MTS curves are weakly subjected to the induction effects and thus reflect the distribution of the deep electric conductivity. On the eastern coast of Kamchatka both the longitudinal and transverse MTS curves are strongly distorted by the 3D effects caused by the abundant capes and bays. The interpretation of MTS data in this region should necessarily invoke the 3D modeling of an MT field.     

堪察加地区现今地壳运动与变形特征研究

利用俄罗斯堪察加地区1995～2005年的GPS观测数据,研究了该区现今地壳水平运动速度场特征.在球坐标系中解算了各应变率分量,分析了应变率场的空间分布特征,并与地震学和地质学研究结果进行了综合对比分析.结果表明,堪察加半岛北部的微板块边界并不明显,堪察加南部测站运动速度大于中部和北部地区,愈靠近东部板块汇聚区,测站速度越大.从东海岸到西海岸,测站水平速度存在明显的梯度衰减特征,水平运动方向与太平洋板块向西北的俯冲方向基本一致.各应变率分量具有东部海岸大于中部和西海岸、从东至西呈梯度衰减的特点.堪察加大部分地区处于EW和NS向压缩状态,局部存在拉张.面应变率结果显示绝大部分为压缩区;刚性转动结果表明大部分地区表现为顺时针转动,北部地区和南端顺时针旋转性明显.东部有效应变率明显大于西部地区,东西向梯度衰减关系明显.主压应变率明显大于主张应变率,特别是在东海岸地区.主压应变率方向与中等以上地震的主压应力轴在水平方向的投影方向基本一致.地壳变形场在空间分布上的不一致性主要与太平洋板块在堪察加半岛东南侧的俯冲深度、俯冲方位角、俯冲倾角和俯冲带的耦合强度有关.     

Modeling of heat and mass transfer in the hydrothermal system of the Akademii Nauk caldera

Supposing a leading role of free heat convection in the hydrothermal system above the magma chamber, a model of the hydrothermal system of the Akademii Nauk caldera in Kamchatka is suggested. The model is based on available geological, hydrogeological and geothermal data for the area. Three possible variants of the model are discussed. Based on temperature distribution data, the variant best corresponding to the natural conditions has been chosen. The period of hydrothermal system stabilization for all the variants is close to 7000–8000 years.     

The geochemistry of steam hydrothermal occurrences in the Koshelev volcanic massif,southern Kamchatka

New data are presented on the geochemistry of thermal waters in the Koshelev volcanic massif in southern Kamchatka. We discuss the conditions for the generation of thermal waters, possible variants of thermal and deep-seated material supply for the Koshelev hydrothermal system, and propose a conceptual model for the system.     

Studies on volcanic gases and gases from hydrothermal fields in Kamchatka

This paper describes the main lines of investigation for the volcanic and geothermal research in Kamchatka. Methods of gas sampling in the field and gas extraction from rocks are also described.     

The present-day seismicity variations in the Kuril-Kamchatka seismic zone

This study is concerned with seismicity variations in Kamchatka and the Kuril Islands for the period 1962–2009; the effects of large earthquakes on the seismicity of adjacent areas are taken into account. The 1997 Kronotskii earthquake was followed by seismicity decreases in most areas over Kamchatka, which is presumably related to decreased tectonic stresses. After the 2007 Simushir earthquake synchronization and periodicities in seismicity were identified, indicating increased instabilities and the likelihood of a large event in Kamchatka in the near future. The instability of seismic regions is discussed within the framework of the theory of nonequilibrium dynamical systems. We suggest successive phases in the occurrence of seismological precursors.     

The system of detailed seismological observations in Kamchatka in 2011

This paper presents the main results from the development of the detailed seismological observation system in Kamchatka and the information on the system as of 2011. We describe the networks of seismological stations, the systems for the acquisition, storage, and processing of seismological observations and their technical, methodological, and software support. We discuss the basic characteristics of the recording channels and the system as a whole. We present the information resources of the Kamchatka seismological data bank that provide for basic research in earth sciences. In 2011, the system of seismological observation in Kamchatka was a specialized network for acquisition (recording), storage, transmission, and processing of seismic and geophysical data that provides support for the effective monitoring of seismic and volcanic activities, as well as tsunami warning.     

Specialized seismic noise registration station “Nachiki” in the geophysical monitoring system of Kamchatka

The specialized station of high-frequency seismic noise registration “Nachiki” is described arranged on Kamchatka in 1987. The instrument-methodical aspects of registration are considered, as well as history of observations development. New principal experimental results of surveys are represented. The results of use of high-frequency seismic noises are summarized to reveal strong earthquake precursors in the online mode in 1996–2008.     

Subduction of the Pacific plate under Kamchatka: Seismic velocity of underthrust

The results of studying the process of underthrusting in the Pacific plate under Kamchatka are presented, and the phenomena associated with this process are described. The seismic component of the velocity of the plate underthrust is estimated on the basis of (1) data from the CMT (Centroid Moment Tensor) catalog and (2) the sequence of the strongest Kamchatka earthquakes. A flat site with a strike azimuth of 217° and a dip angle of 25° located at depths of 30–70 km is assumed to be the interface between the plunging plate and Kamchatka. From CMT focal mechanisms, the underthrust velocity is estimated at V = 0.7 cm/yr for the southern zone (located south of Cape Shipunski) and at V = 1.1 cm/yr for the central zone (from Cape Shipunski to Cape Kronotski). From pairs of the strongest earthquakes that have occurred successively since 1737, the underthrust velocity for the southern zone is estimated at V = 6.6–7.1 cm/yr (from two pairs) and for the central zone, at V = 6.6 cm/yr. The creep portion of the underthrust amounts to 5–15% of the total velocity (the velocity of motion of the Pacific plate is 8 cm/yr).     

Strongest Earthquake-Prone Areas in Kamchatka

The paper continues the series of our works on recognizing the areas prone to the strongest, strong, and significant earthquakes with the use of the Formalized Clustering And Zoning (FCAZ) intellectual clustering system. We recognized the zones prone to the probable emergence of epicenters of the strongest (M ≥ 74/3) earthquakes on the Pacific Coast of Kamchatka. The FCAZ-zones are compared to the zones that were recognized in 1984 by the classical recognition method for Earthquake-Prone Areas (EPA) by transferring the criteria of high seismicity from the Andes mountain belt to the territory of Kamchatka. The FCAZ recognition was carried out with two-dimensional and three-dimensional objects of recognition.     

Earthquakes,characteristics of the upper mantle under kamchatka,and their connection with volcanism (according to data collected up to 1971)

This paper presents new data on the upper mantle characteristics, and on seismicity and volcanism in Kamchatka. It is shown that the seismic activity in the Pacific focal layer decreases sharply below that narrow line on which the foci of the active volcanoes are situated. A map of longitudinal wave velocitiesV _p in the mantle upper layers under Kamchatka is given. The lowest values ofV _p (7.3–7.6 km/sec) are found near the volcanic belt. The graphs Θ=lg (E_s/E_p) (h) for the Kamchatka earthquakes indicate that Θ_min at the depths of 120–250 km may be caused by a concentration of magmatic melts. A map of bodies (magma chambers?) screening S- and P-waves at the depths of 30–100 km under Kamchatka has been compiled. These bodies are mainly located under the belt of active volcanoes.     

Deep structure,volcanism and Wadati-Benioff zone of the northwestern pacific convergent margin

The morphology of the Wadati-Benioff zone in the region of Kamchatka, the Kurile Islands and Hokkaido, based on the distribution of 6319 earthquake foci, has verified the existence of an intermediate-depth aseismic gap and its relation to active andesitic volcanism. It appeared that deep-focus earthquakes in this region belong to a paleosubduction zone activated by an intermediate-depth collision with the active subduction zone in the area of Hokkaido. A system of deep seismically active fracture zones was delineated in the continental plate and confirmed by the results of deep seismic sounding. Two of these fractures, dipping toward the subduction zone, may be considered as the principal feeding channels for active and Holocene volcanoes of the continental volcanic bels of Kamchatka.     

JORES,a portable recorder of geophysical parameters

JORES, a portable recorder of geophysical parameters, developed at Kamchatka Branch of Geophysical Survey, Russian Academy of Sciences, is described. Its peculiarities are universality, compactness, low power consumption, and low cost.     

On the eruptions, deformation, and seismicity of Klyuchevskoy Volcano, Kamchatka in 1986–2005 and the mechanisms of its activity

The eruptions, seismicity, and deformations, the properties of the magma feeding, and the mechanism of the activity of Klyuchevskoy, a giant basaltic volcano in Kamchatka, are considered. Twenty-eight author’s papers on the above subjects, published from 1985 to 2006, are reviewed. The activity of Klyuchevskoy the adventive and summit eruptions of Klyuchevskoy from 1986 to 2005 is described. The seismicity of Klyuchevskoy from 1986 to 2005 and its relation to eruptions are considered. It was inferred from geodetic measurements that the center of the magmatic pressure beneath the volcano moved in the depth range from 3 to 25 km during the period from 1979 to 2005. Based on previously developed models and observations from 1986 to 2005, the main properties of the Klyuchevskoy magma feeding system and the magma ascent in five major parts of the system are described and characterized: near the top of the plunging Pacific plate (with a depth of approximately 160 km), in the asthenosphere (160 to 40 km), in the region of the intermediate magma chamber where the magmas coming from below are accumulated (40 to 20 km), in the crust (20 to 5 km), and in the upper part of the system (from a depth of 5 km under the volcanic edifice to the crater at an altitude of 4.75 km). A comparison between the outputs from the summit and adventive eruptions on Klyuchevskoy as functions of time for the period from 1978 to 2005 shows that the probability of adventive eruptions should increase in the future.